RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Sunshine Valley Gazette 2nd August 2023 page 25

Truth, lies, fiction, integrity and a $2.4 billion omission

Couriermail --> Transport Minister's admission: I misled Queenslanders on train figures $

QuoteA $2.4bn blowout on the state's flagship train manufacturing program was hidden from Queenslanders – despite both the Premier and Transport Minister admitting they knew the true project cost.

A $2.4bn blowout on the state's flagship train manufacturing program was deleted from a media release and hidden from Queenslanders – despite both Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Transport Minister Mark Bailey admitting they knew at the time the true cost of the project.

After weeks of dodging questions on who knew what about the state's train manufacturing program's staggering climb in total cost – from $7.1bn to $9.5bn – Mr Bailey admitted last night the blowout had been deleted from a draft press release provided to his office by the Transport and Main Roads department.

The stunning admission came after the Premier faced a grilling during the first day of budget estimates in State Parliament about whether she had seen a version of the media release with the incorrect figure before it was published – a question that she repeatedly did not answer. ...

Couriermail --> Editor's view: Bailey must go after admitting to $2.4bn cover-up $

QuoteSurely this is the last straw for the state's trouble-prone Transport Minister Mark Bailey. He must be removed from the ministry, writes The Editor.

That is now the only electorally palatable conclusion to the sorry saga of Minister Bailey's ham-fisted attempts to deliberately hide from Queenslanders a whopping $2.4 billion blowout in the cost of the Palaszczuk Government's train manufacturing program. ...

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1686373083194793984

https://twitter.com/SteveMinnikinMP/status/1686356754442174464

This admission makes Jeff Addison's article more timely, relevant and essential in a healthy democracy. Thanks Jeff.

Quote from: ozbob on August 01, 2023, 23:50:26 PMCouriermail --> Editor's view: Bailey must go after admitting to $2.4bn cover-up $

QuoteSurely this is the last straw for the state's trouble-prone Transport Minister Mark Bailey. He must be removed from the ministry, writes The Editor.

That is now the only electorally palatable conclusion to the sorry saga of Minister Bailey's ham-fisted attempts to deliberately hide from Queenslanders a whopping $2.4 billion blowout in the cost of the Palaszczuk Government's train manufacturing program. ...

Oh the irony!!

He may go but not because he has focused primarily on road building despite their known congestion creation from existing population for no economic benefit!! 

https://twitter.com/MarkBaileyMP/status/1686652692465373189

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1686769934234468352

https://twitter.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1686651700671578112

Mark Bailey refuses to resign after department releases wrong figures on train cost blowout | 7NEWS

https://twitter.com/10NewsFirstQLD/status/1686634928539058176

I think the actual manufacturing cost of the QTMP 65 six car trains is $4.6 billion.

4.6/65 = 4,600 million/65 = 70.8 million per six car train.

Melbourne's new X'Trapolis are costing $38.5 million per six car train (60% local content).

The rest of the QTMP costs are for the workshops, maintenance, test track etc.

https://www.downergroup.com/queensland-train-manufacturing-program-contra

Queensland Train Manufacturing Program contract
02/08/2023

Downer is delivering the Queensland Train Manufacturing Program (QTMP).
On June 30, 2023, a Design Build Maintain contract worth $4.6 billion was executed between Downer and the Queensland Government.

Downer will partner with Hyundai Rotem Company (HRC) for design and delivery of the rollingstock. This agreement was executed at the same time as the agreement with the State. Financial arrangements between Downer and its joint venture partners are commercial-in-confidence.

HRC has extensive experience with manufacturing rollingstock and their expertise have been contracted to fast-track the delivery of the QTMP fleet.

None of the 65 QTMP trains will be manufactured in Korea. All 65 QTMP trains will be built at the Torbanlea train manufacturing facility.  However, to help upskill the local Queensland workforce, two prototypes will be built by Hyundai in Korea to establish the manufacturing process. This will enable the transfer of technology and knowledge to our Queensland workforce.

The Torbanlea train manufacturing facility's capabilities will include steel fabrication, robotic-assisted welding, bogie construction, car body building, electrical manufacturing, equipment fit-out and testing of the completed rollingstock.

^ this seems to indicate a full manufacturing process, apart from the two imported prototypes.

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1686890738028871682

Facebook ...

If those in Government were actually transparent upfront, it might save them (and their staff) a lot of unnecessary political grief!

https://twitter.com/MarkBaileyMP/status/1686613976736825344

Hey        let's hope there is a full detailed breakup list of all the costs associated with QTMP. Including the unit costs for an individual six car train.

Estimates would be a good time and place don't you think? 

Failing that we will be taking RTI action.

The breakdown should be honest. Are Maryborough-based weavers going to produce the seat fabric on fireside looms? Blast furnaces to turn sand mined at Hervey Bay into glass windows? What bits will be imported components versus 'manufactured in Maryborough'?

Someone should tell the honourable minister that it is not possible to change the past.

What does he want Blue Team to do? Go backwards in time to 2014 (almost 10 years ago) and alter the NGR contract?

The claims made by the minister now need to be carefully tested to see a break down of what costs are attributable to what parts of the program.

I have never been too fond of what they are doing in terms of ordering new trains. The cost is becoming astronomical.

We need to ask if the new trains will carry the new Translink livery being Aqua Blue and Navy Blue with pink or white Translink branding.

I question this as I have seen renders of the new livery. It actually looks quite good.

Out with the yellow and maroon and in with the blues.

Quote from: Verbatim9I have never been too fond of what they are doing in terms of ordering new trains. The cost is becoming astronomical.

Quote from: StillwaterThe breakdown should be honest. Are Maryborough-based weavers going to produce the seat fabric on fireside looms? Blast furnaces to turn sand mined at Hervey Bay into glass windows? What bits will be imported components versus 'manufactured in Maryborough'?

Stillwater raises a good point.

It does not necessarily make sense to make absolutely every single component within QLD.

Suppose QLD took the Perth path and built and assembly plant instead of a full manufacturing plant.

Perhaps this would entail importing the train "shells" like Perth is doing.

If this would result in a lower unit cost per train, then it would suggest that:

(a) More trains could have been produced for the same input budget, reinvesting savings to create even more trains.

OR

(b) The same number of trains could have been produced for a lower cost overall

The trains would still be manufactured here and the jobs would still be here as well.

The question then becomes, can the minister explain the basis for full on-shore manufacturing versus on-shore assembly? In both cases the majority of the jobs would be in Maryborough, so that is not a point of difference between the two options.

There is no general answer to the make-buy decision, it depends on the case.

Supporting Material

It is difficult to explain the economics and logic behind this. But you will get the idea from this video where the creator sets out to make all components of a simple Chicken Sandwich by themselves. The sandwich ends up costing $1500 and takes 6 months to complete. A very different prospect to just buying a sandwich from the local store, or buying already made bread, lettuce, and chicken and assembling it.

QuoteI spent 6 months and $1500 to make a sandwich completely from scratch, including growing my own vegetables, making my own salt from ocean water, milking a cow to make cheese, grinding my own flour from wheat, collecting my own honey, and killing a chicken myself.

Cost is rising for a few factors but it's not as a major blowout as most would actually think. Just typical accountant and spin doctors playing games again. Giving the impression of something to hide when there's not but can be made to make the government look bad. It's just a bad bounce of the ball as the sheer number of side projects involved and how they can be easily twisted to show favouritism or public political influence which they would be trying to limit. Only problem is they've caught the ball but are tripping over with the wobbly legs of an unfit marathon runner near the finish line that has the momentum of a runaway freight train carrying a substantial list of infrastructure fails of road and rail projects right behind. We've seen this same tactic for cross river rail when projects were just bundled into it to avoid public scrutiny which inflated the overall cost and muddied what actual cost differences were of multiple projects. Only difference is there isn't an authority to hide behind now but instead commercial in confidence will be their last saving grace.

You won't get a cost breakdown as it would expose the raw deals everywhere even if being very broad and vague. For example it might cost x amount in raw materials but how do you factor in something stupid such as 100 million spent on retooling/expanding and getting local manufacturers who in turn are potentially now preferred tenders for future rail related projects in the region, job security and region/industry growth. Bigger outlay cost for QTMP but reduced costs on long distance rollingstock/refurbs (remember since privatisation refurb and mtce costs have dramatically increased which is why EMUs are hot tickets for scrapping asap) and bringing more jobs/growth and manufacturing chains to the area.

Remember the extra 10 or so million dollars the state gave to Downer for facility upgrades on top of 70-80 million Downer had on existing projects with the state lead to a few questions and attacks towards the state at the time. Couldn't such a large company as DownerRail upgrade a few things on their own? It's not just made in Maryborough. Rocky manufacturing and rail revitalisation for the area is playing a very large part as well in supporting and supplying the project which is being kept on the hush hush for which I assume is to avoid scrutiny as I would assume there are still big ifs, buts and when's at play here.

From what I've been lead to believe some contracts for the QTMP could also result in those tenders also being listed as preferred tenders for other upcoming contracts as QR/TMR look to outsource other projects and services and to reboot Rocky as a rail and rail related manufacturing supply chain hub.

This should have been a very positive event (the QTMP trains).  Instead it has degenerated into a major political crisis of sorts because of the Government's lack of transparency and their bumbling!

I am after confirmed cost of the individual trains, the cost of the manufacturing plant, the cost of the 30 year + maintenance contract, and the cost of the test track.  This should all add up to $9.5 billion.

This is not an unreasonable ask in my view.  Got that       

Their incompetence and lack of transparency leads to this.

https://twitter.com/LNPQLD/status/1686975254894436353

Quote from: verbatim9 on August 03, 2023, 20:48:07 PMWe need to ask if the new trains will carry the new Translink livery being Aqua Blue and Navy Blue with pink or white Translink branding.

I question this as I have seen renders of the new livery. It actually looks quite good.

Out with the yellow and maroon and in with the blues.

QLD Trains?

Every time I look at or visit Western Australia, I see a competent government, well planned projects being executed at pace, and excellent outcomes for the public.

WA projects consistently come in well below whatever is happening on the eastern seaboard, and their local train assembly program seems to be continuing that tradition.

They even have set things up so trains come every 15 minutes to all suburban stations and now every 10 min to a set of suburban ones too.

WA is very transparent about what they do and more importantly, why.

When I look at QLD, I see lots of social media, an overload of plans, statements you have to second guess, planning by media release, and messy execution.

Well done WA.

Quote from: ozbob on August 04, 2023, 04:54:10 AMThis should have been a very positive event (the QTMP trains).  Instead it has degenerated into a major political crisis of sorts because of the Government's lack of transparency and their bumbling!

I am after confirmed cost of the individual trains, the cost of the manufacturing plant, the cost of the 30 year + maintenance contract, and the cost of the test track.  This should all add up to $9.5 billion.

This is not an unreasonable ask in my view.  Got that       

Indeed. I don't know how they manage to keep shooting themselves in the foot and scoring own goals. There was always going to be some cost increases at the moment which was a given. And by all means add projects to it but be upfront with costs and what the projects are/entail/will deliver. You want more railway supply chains based around Rocky/Maryborough for QTMP, the new long distance rollingstock projects, want to use those same manufacturers/providers for fleet refurbishment contracts and eventually the next suburban fleet contract then say that. You want to bring more manufacturing/industry to the area for railway technology and training than bloody say it. We want streamlined operations and to provide local jobs ongoing and into the future for an area that has a long history of railway development. Great. Spruce that. You might have to spend some money on local industry and businesses to get it up and running but be upfront. Explain it and show why. You are always going to get criticism but you'll get more if you try to hide it, play dumb and keep posting selfies/thumbs up okay photos on social media. And using the NGR mtce method isn't always the best approach as that just adds more to the budget (the end goal with that method was privatisation of the fleet but also removing operations from Mayne as the fleet retires leading to selling off of prime land but also limit blowback should there be faults with the fleet as we have seen elsewhere - where once again governments cheap out and order cheaper trains rather than spend more for more specific trains. Local built trains can also be just as bad if you don't want to spend the money).

I'm honestly less concerned about QTMP knowing it involves more or less full fabrication.  I don't agree this was the right thing to do, but it is a matter for the government of the day how they want to procure things and they are in charge of more than just the PT system.  I'm not happy about $9.5bn all up cost (even if it is over something like up to 50 years) but I am happier it doesn't just involve fitting out works like Bellevue and Dandenong are doing.

Couriermail 5th August 2023 page 20

Gag on Korea train deal

I'm not overly bothered about a couple of prototypes being built in South Korea, but I'm wondering why they can't be converted to regular rollingstock and become part of the order—so 67 trains instead of 65. Is it because they're likely to have unredeemable faults as part of the prototyping process?

Sent to all outlets:

Queensland Train Manufacturing Program (QTMP) costings

5th August 2023

Greetings,

We are writing to request a cost breakup for the Queensland Train Manufacturing Program (QTMP).

Queensland citizens are very confused, as we are at RAIL Back On Track.

In a Government Statement on the 30th June 2023 ( Maryborough's Downer locked in as Queensland's rail manufacturing powerhouse https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/98096 ) it was announced that Downer had signed a contract to deliver 65 passenger trains for $4.6 billion.  In the same statement it went on to indicate that the QTMP program was $7.1 billion.

Subsequent to this statement TMR updated the Queensland Train Manufacturing Program website to state that the cost of program is $9.5 billion.
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/programs/queensland-train-manufacturing-program

What then is the cost breakup?  We assume the  unit cost of the 65 trains is $4.6 billion which is $71 million for each six car train.

What comprises the additional cost items of $4.9 billion ($9.5 billion - $4.6 billion).

Maintenance? For how many years?

Test track?

Torbanlea manufacturing facility?
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/torbanlea-manufacturing-facility

Ormeau rail facility?
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/ormeau-rail-facility

We note that no cost is given for the Torbanlea manufacturing facility and the Ormeau rail facility on the respective websites.

We are saddened that a lack of transparency and bumbling incompetence has detracted from what is a very positive thing that the trains will be manufactured in Queensland.

Can this mess please be clarified promptly?

Thank you.

Regards
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

See what happens when you try to hide something that isn't really there. You get these stupid not an actually story stories by reporters who what Jack all knowledge of railways. Anyone that has the slightest knowledge of railways will know this. Downer has never had that design ability for full rollingstock manufacturing. Hopefully they don't look into the 160/260 bombardier plates. Or the Adtranz plates... or the ABB plates... or the ASEA plates.

For those that don't know ASEA (who designed the EMU/ICE/3500/3900) merged and became ABB (Who designed SMU200/IMU100). ABB merged and became Adtranz (who designed the SMU220/IMU120/Transpert A sets). Adtranz merged and became Bombardier Transportation (who designed the SMU260/IMU160/Transperth B sets/Velocity/Adelaide's new trains and a ton of other trains overseas). But at least the tilts didn't have overseas input from the Japanese and German power plants...

Walkers who became EDI who became Downer just manufacture and build them. I could mention the diesel locomotives they built... on license from General Electric USA. Oh no. The shock horror.

@bob, maybe look into the state buying the Aurizon Rocky yards. There's been quite a bit of chat with Rocky possibly being included in the QTMP project to get a new rail ops hub up there running after Aurizon shut everything down across the state. Maybe they haven't had a chance to delete all the online media releases mentioning QTMP projects haha.

Edit: Well that was easy. The first result on google comes up with a vague reference to Rocky and QTMP trying to get a supply chain going  - https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/95249

Quote"Rail supply chain manufacturing is part of our history. It's in our DNA in Rocky.

"By investing in this facility, we're not just creating jobs, we're creating opportunities for local businesses in the supply chain.

"The railyards will be a supply chain source for the government's Queensland Train Manufacturing Program.

"This program is a $7.1 billion investment in Queensland rail manufacturing and Queensland jobs.

"It's going to create hundreds of jobs all over Queensland – but particularly here in Rocky."

Assistant Train Manufacturing Minister Bruce Saunders praised the announcement.

"This Labor Government is bringing manufacturing back to Queensland and building trains in Maryborough," Mr Saunders said.

"The Rocky Railyards have an important role in that delivery and I couldn't be happier to join the Premier here today.

https://twitter.com/railbotforum/status/1687606460505800706

Another reference to the Rocky yards being part of the supply chain. https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/97846

I mean that would explain the large price jump if it includes building new industrial facilities, roads and cleaning up contaminated land. And new locomotive design. Maybe they've broadened what QTMP actually means rather than just the 65 new trains.

Quote from: HappyTrainGuy on August 05, 2023, 09:57:47 AMAnother reference to the Rocky yards being part of the supply chain. https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/97846

I mean that would explain the large price jump if it includes building new industrial facilities, roads and cleaning up contaminated land. And new locomotive design. Maybe they've broadened what QTMP actually means rather than just the 65 new trains.

Thanks, quite possible.  But it needs clarification. 

It is presently a mess of own goals and free kicks to wannabee political script kiddies and scribes!

If I was the Minister for Transport, I would clarify the situation before Tuesday (Transport Estimates) to get on the front foot. A simple statement outlining the break up of the $9.5 billion.  Not hard is it?