RAIL - Back On Track Forum

A government that is willing to do this is also probably willing to provide 'toll and rego' relief as well Jonno.

Not good at all.

Just saying

QuoteQueensland forecast to record budget deficit of $3bn. Economists explain what's to blame - ABC News.

Quote from: ozbob on May 26, 2024, 10:40:06 AMI just completed a short notice  live interview on 4BC Weekends with Peter Fegan Host.  I stressed that the cost of this (Fifty Cent Fares) needs to be quarantined from the Translink budget for service improvements.

I talked about poor frequency on both rail and bus.  Pointed out that if you pay $30 for a bag of rotten applies and 50 cents for a bag of rotten apples, it still is a bag of rotten apples.

Mentioned that the ' fifty cent fares ' is not really sustainable in the longer term, but it might direct the smart ticketing project into some better fare products, capping, periodical type tickets and so forth.

Interview 26th May 2024 4BC Weekends Host Peter Fegan with Robert Dow RBoT discuss the Fifty Cent Fares

here > https://backontrack.org/docs/4bc/4bc_weekends_pf_rd.mp3 MP3 5.9MB

I started to wonder why the government was doing this:

• Political? It's during the lead-up to the election!
• Technical? Is it to make it easier to switch to the new ticketing system at the backend?

But then I thought.... who cares!!  This will be a great opportunity to see just how much fare prices adjust behaviour when it comes to travelling around SEQ.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/as-close-to-free-as-you-can-get-all-public-transport-trips-in-qld-to-cost-50c-20240526-p5jgnp.html

Quote... LNP deputy leader Jarrod Bleijie said the opposition supported the measure but labelled its six-month timeframe a "cynical" election ploy.

He said the reliability and frequency of services also needed to be addressed, along with extending them to more areas. ...

This is huge! Was out of the loop this morning and just came online to see all the fuss. This will make a massive cost of living relief for regular commuters. And for me personally, while my main workplace is very local, I have been occasionally doing some work down on the GC and taking the train for that, so this is a big win for me!

Some of my comments from the thoughts I've seen expressed above:

• The 6 month time frame is definitely a clever political spin, as the timing makes the LNP look super bad if they don't commit to keeping the low prices going into 2025
• Absolutely this should not be instead of improving services. I doubt that it would be. Bus network reform for Brisbane Metro is still well underway (as one example)
• I feel like overcrowding will 100% be an issue at certain times/stations. Basically any station with a big Park n' Ride, you can guarantee services that go through there in peak will be absolutely packed. Coomera, Helensvale, Robina, Eight Mile Plains, Ferny Grove, Kallangur...
• This will actually be a really good experiment for the government to run and the patronage data that will come out of this will be tremendously valuable to future planning. Not just for fare price policy, but where best to improve infrastructure and services to support growing demand on the network
• The little tiny bracketed note saying "except Airtrain" is very small. To most of us who are fairly public transport literate, this is obvious. But I feel like non-regular users of the PT network may get caught out by this. I hope there is clear communication that Airtrain fares are still full price, otherwise you will have some very angry travellers!

Quote from: verbatim9 on May 26, 2024, 12:07:51 PM

Quote from: AJ Transport on May 26, 2024, 12:00:58 PMAside from how I feel about this personally it's incredibly smart political strategy.
Miles is locking in big costs for things that are beneficial, important and popular. He is wedging the LNP both in the campaign and if they win government. In the campaign the LNP will be forced to back Labor's investments and lock in the progressive coal royalties or risk abandoning their small target campaign potentially losing the election. If they back labor's plans their chances of winning are higher but they will have a very difficult time changing course and their relationship with the coal lobby will be badly damaged.

Just saying that statistics say only 4% Qld wide take public transport. It hardly translates into vote winning material, even with some considering to swap to PT rather than the car.

"Queensland. On Census day 2021 in Queensland, 64.0% of people travelled to work in a private car, 4.0% took public transport and 3.3% rode a bike or walked. 14.1% worked at home. Queensland's commuting statistics reveal the main modes of transport by which residents get to work.

I don't think that matters. I think Labor is forcing LNP to admit to cuts which lets Labor run a ghost of Campbell Newman scare campaign or the LNP can back many Labor policies and be hamstrung from making the changes they would like to make in government. The details rarely matter in campaigns but the broad themes matter a lot.

This policy is the equivalent of free beer.

It is going to spend ~ $150 million for no new service. We have spent years trying to get certain initiatives funded.

The full annual cost is double this at ~ $300 million/year. Money like that should be going to service improvement across SEQ LGAs.

Yes, smart politically. It may be a good marketing tool to get more people back on public transport too.

All the polls say LNP will form new government, not Labor.

LNP (as a stop gap) say they support 50c fares. The acid is now on LNP to arrive at a decent policy re SEQ fares. More than likely,THAT will be the policy applying after the state election.

So, let's pile pressure on LNP to come up with a good, workable counter offer. THAT's the real gift the ALP has given us, not a 50c concessional fare.

I think the counter offer should be $300 million in service frequency upgrades not sugar hits. That would open up a point of difference.

Gazza would then get his SEQ-wide funding boost for more service as well.

Quote from: #Metro on May 26, 2024, 17:06:08 PMI think the counter offer should be $300 million in service frequency upgrades not sugar hits. That would open up a point of difference.

Gazza would then get his SEQ-wide funding boost for more service as well.

or...both!  Plenty of funding available

It concerns me that 50¢ fares during peak times may lead to even more overcrowding. Not sure this is a good way to go. I don't have first-have experience, but apparently the FG line has a lot of issues with this around 5-5:30 pm ex Central.

Here on the Beenleigh line, I can't remember the last time I saw a full train...

As for off-peak though, have at it. Off-peak patronage is *woeful* on most of the network.

If over-crowding occurs then the pressure is on to add more services

Miles' 50¢ fares unlikely to save Queensland Labor
Gus McCubbing and Ronald Mizen, May 26, 2024
https://www.afr.com/politics/queensland-premier-slashes-public-transport-fares-to-50c-20240526-p5jgob

QuoteIndependent economist Saul Eslake said the Queensland announcement seemed more an indication of the Miles Labor government's desperation ahead of the state election. "I can't think of any other explanation," he said.

QuoteFormer RBA official turned chief economist for Challenger Jonathan Kearns said the measures would technically be inflationary by boosting household incomes, but he did not think it was yet at a significant level.

(bolding added)

 

Quote from: #Metro on May 26, 2024, 19:25:05 PM

QuoteFormer RBA official turned chief economist for Challenger Jonathan Kearns said the measures would technically be inflationary by boosting household incomes, but he did not think it was yet at a significant level.

(bolding added)

 

Of course they're a former RBA official...

They mustn't have read anything about behavioural economics about how people actually act in the economy.

A reduced expenditure that people experience in the form of only a few dollars each day doesn't have anywhere near the same impact let alone actually feel like a household income boost compared to an actual cash handout.

For example for me it will mean a less frequent direct debit on my credit card for auto top up. Welcome relief? Sure. But hardly something that is going to have me heading to the shops to spend more than I otherwise would. Most likely a small, inadvertent bump in what I can save each pay check.

Quote from: ozbob on May 26, 2024, 08:15:19 AMGovernment Statement

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/100402

Miles plan to bust congestion: Public transport (almost) free

26th May 2024

JOINT STATEMENT

Premier
The Honourable Steven Miles

Deputy Premier, Treasurer and Minister for Trade and Investment
The Honourable Cameron Dick

Minister for Transport and Main Roads and Minister for Digital Services
The Honourable Bart Mellish

...

The Big Build is increasing capacity on the bus, rail and tram network as the population grows.

...

This is my main concern. They're trying to spin that they have extra capacity coming already. I can't think of any projects that will deliver that before or during the six month period fo 50c fares?

Quote from: #Metro on May 26, 2024, 19:25:05 PMMiles' 50¢ fares unlikely to save Queensland Labor
Gus McCubbing and Ronald Mizen, May 26, 2024
https://www.afr.com/politics/queensland-premier-slashes-public-transport-fares-to-50c-20240526-p5jgob

QuoteIndependent economist Saul Eslake said the Queensland announcement seemed more an indication of the Miles Labor government's desperation ahead of the state election. "I can't think of any other explanation," he said.

QuoteFormer RBA official turned chief economist for Challenger Jonathan Kearns said the measures would technically be inflationary by boosting household incomes, but he did not think it was yet at a significant level.

(bolding added)

 

Combine this with the electricity rebate and the Federal tax cut, it could well be inflationary.

Couriermail --> New CityCat stop, Premier warns 'use it or lose it' on 50c fares $

QuoteQueenslanders must use public transport in the next six months or risk losing cut-price 50c fares, Premier Steven Miles has warned.

Commuters across Queensland will receive 50c fares until February in a major cost-of-living announcement aimed at increasing public transport use and easing congestion.

Mr Miles on Sunday spruiked the announcement as a significant win for Queenslanders, but dismissed questions about how much it would help his government five months out from a state election.

He insisted it was a policy he'd wanted to do for a long time, and denied he had introduced a six-month trial in an attempt to buy votes.

Mr Miles said the trial would create a sense of urgency and make people change their travel habits.

"This is use it or lose it," he said.

"If this is effective, if this reduces congestion and sees lots of people get back on public transport then obviously we'll consider making it permanent. ...

Quote from: Jonno on May 26, 2024, 17:52:57 PM

Quote from: #Metro on May 26, 2024, 17:06:08 PMI think the counter offer should be $300 million in service frequency upgrades not sugar hits. That would open up a point of difference.

Gazza would then get his SEQ-wide funding boost for more service as well.

or...both!  Plenty of funding available

Quote from: Jonno on May 26, 2024, 18:54:05 PMIf over-crowding occurs then the pressure is on to add more services

Spot on Jonno.  It is time to not ponder on whether or not Fifty Cent Fares (FCF) is right or wrong and  too much on the political, but focus on the practical.  FCF is a fact for now.  LNP has come out and said they support FCF (but of course with political caveats)  so it will be around for while.

This could be a way of:

1. Driving service improvements when the patronage starts to increase (and it will).  I am sure Transport academics are looking forward to the data analyses.

2. Pointing towards some innovative fare products for the Smart Ticketing system.

FCF will further delay the final setup of Smart Ticketing and resources will have to be directed to setting up the FCF on the present system (The Smart Ticketing accounts based back end is not yet in place, when it is concession fares would be available on smart payment methods).  It is possible that if FCF stayed in place the accounts based software would not be needed, but this is speculation.

I have already made our concerns with the possible impact on Translink funding for service improvement at the highest levels, and will be watching closely during budget time to make sure FCF cost is quarantined from the service budget.

So lets take the chips off our shoulders, accept the cards dealt, and use finesse to get the best outcomes in the longer term. Being antagonistic is not going to be helpful.  Being in the tent is much more likely to get some outcomes.

Onwards!

50 cent fares for public transport in Queensland, in six month trial | ABC News

https://x.com/7newsbrisbane/status/1794642813046657295?s=46&t=EDszjTErsxTIqAna7yuP-w



Lord Mayor warns without bus and train reliability in the outer suburbs (not sure what reliability issues exist on trains) peak hour will stay at a standstill.

Sounds like bus lanes to me!!

^ we already have a win of sorts.  LM Schrinner talking about more buses to rail stations!   

Western Brisbane bus needs considerable improvement!

The more I have been mulling over this, the more I think it is a useful experiment.

Its statewide, its for a useful time period.
The statewide aspect is useful because I know in the past Metro has spoken about doing a trial with a certain number of users having free transport, but i think the factor you miss out on seeing is mass behavioural change on certain parts of the system.
A trial with 1,000 people isn't enough to make a particular train line become overloaded, but 3 million people sure can!

So what we are going to see is a real world "ant colony" example of how people make use of the network that the Qld government has seen fit to provide


After all, aside from a blip in the Newman years, they have had decades to plan and implement the network we have today.

So the data churners out there need to be ready and we can see how people respond to the service offering.

For years I have said that talk about fares and caps and stuff like that has sucked up way too much oxygen in the debate.

Well now, the fare issue is at least sorted temporarily, and FINALLY people are talking about what else needs to be fixed. Good! I hope the trial leads to masses of people trying pt and discovering its drawbacks and benefits.

I also hope useless routes stay unpopular, and we can finally make certain people in the government see that people wont even pay 50c for rotten apples

Question isn't just whether patronage will increase as there will be an increase of sorts with all intervention types.

Dropping fares is one of two main levers, the frequency lever being the much bigger and more effective one.

There are no new services with this. Services is where it's at, we know this from the BCC BUZ data.

If they want to call it an experiment then they need a reference standard upfront and the measurement indicators as well. What is the reference period we are comparing against? They probably should get UQ/QUT/Griffith on board.

I would suggest they determine elasticity of price changes, mode shift from car to PT, and cost per added user/added trips. I'm sure members can think of other indicators.

If someone switches in the trial period, do they switch back after it ends or are they retained?

If there are more trips, are they more trips from existing users or car users?

Then TMR should also submit it for peer review and publish it in a journal. That way it will absolutely be reviewed by others and a permanent record of the results.

That is the standard TMR should be meeting. For $150 million we should expect nothing less 

Stop moaning about bcc, seq and frequency would you. And case studies pffttt. Yes frequency plays a part by so too does network design, trip generators, walking distance and the area in question ie terrain, bus shelters, lighting, general or perceived safety levels. A popular issue is the safety levels provided at Dakabin. Great lighting at the station and car park while nothing along the roads and footpaths.

It's state wide. Why don't you moan about Townsville frequencies? What about cairns? Do you not feel like digging into the problems there?

Quote from: HTGYes frequency plays a part by so too does network design, trip generators, walking distance and the area in question ie terrain, bus shelters, lighting, general or perceived safety levels.

Muddying the waters.

Nobody here is suggesting that these things don't matter. But what I am suggesting to you is that they don't impact equally, as you imply.

Free Wifi isn't going to increase patronage anywhere near doubling frequency will, for example.

Not muddying the waters in the slightest. You might be a little young or just naive to know what has happened on our pt in the past and how areas have changed over the years. Personal safety does have a big impact on if the service is used or not regardless of frequency. We've/I've seen PT in areas take patronage hits and travel methods change after serious crimes were committed. Virginia, Zillmere, Carseldine, Strathpine, Bray Park, Dakabin and Morayfield are examples on the NCL. Brunswick Street station is one station that has dramatically changed over the years for the better. Local police at the time even advised not to walk home or through particular areas as there were several people targeting these areas. This also lead to a massive uptake in parking issues around train stations. Chermside was a great example of people using taxis after getting off the bus instead of walking after there were several serious assaults along pathways directly leading away from bus stops. It's easy to forget how the areas change. Just look at Dakabin. Same problem. Locals preferred to go to Petrie because it was safer.

And double the frequency does not mean big increases in patronage. There are multiple factors at play. Sure the 330/333/340 have great patronage but why are the 330/340 still air parcels at 7pm on a Tuesday evening? Why does the bulk of the 340 patronage still come south of Chermside? How much of a patronage boost do you think you'll get from a 314 buz?

Frequency is only part of the puzzle. Without a proper network design and trip generators you still have a incomplete puzzle and only contribute to problems such as 24bph minimum along Gympie road after 10pm.

Muddying the waters, and doubling down on it. And moaning about northside bus routes.



Now that we have this flat fares trial we didn't ask for, let's ensure it's rigorous and well documented as it proceeds.

Quote from: #Metro on May 27, 2024, 08:28:56 AMDropping fares is one of two main levers, the frequency lever being the much bigger and more effective one.

Generally yes I can see why this would be the case, but what we're looking at in Queensland more than just dropping fares a couple of dollars, we're seeing an almost complete elimination of all fares - the 50c flat fare is just a nominal amount to keep people tapping their GoCards. I think this fact could heavily skew against the general result of which lever is more effective in increasing patronage, especially now during a cost of living crisis.

Apart from loving this because I personally will be saving about $1k over the 6 months, which is VERY welcome, I agree with it being an exciting opportunity for data collection over a half year period covering a catchment of the entire state! It will shine a big light on all the network's biggest deficiencies in a way that would be very hard to replicate in any other way.

And, as mentioned, it really puts the screws onto the LNP to force them to talk about public transport fare prices. Given how on the nose the ALP is, I feel there is a real concern that the LNP could walk into Government by just keeping their mouth shut on a lot of topics, but this has forced the conversation to be made, and the LNP to formulate a response as to what they will do at the end of the trial.

Doubling down because I mentioned just a few bus routes and train stations that saw a drop in patronage/commuting shifts after passengers were targeted for sexual assaults and robberies after using them because of the surrounding area. And sorry for referencing a corridor with 24bph after 10pm while others don't even have 24 buses per day.

Quote from: nathandavid88I think this fact could heavily skew against the general result of which lever is more effective in increasing patronage, especially now during a cost of living crisis.

These are good points.

The BCC BUZ data shows 100% patronage increases as typical.

For a fare reduction to match that lever, it would have to generate similar levels of increase.

Remember, no new service is being added, and certainly not to accommodate 50%-100% increases, so this is already a clue.

I reckon the increases will be around 10% or less overall, majority existing users making more trips, and negligible (< 5%) mode shift from cars. No statistically significant difference in peak congestion on arterial roads versus similar periods in the past due to traffic induction/triple convergence.

Most increases probably off-peak and weekends when congestion not really an issue for trips to Gold/Sunshine Coast is my hunch. Main increases for leisure/social probably.

In a base of say 160 million trips per year, 10% would give + 16 million additional trips. Halve this as it's 6 months, so about 8 million additional trips.

Average cost per added passenger trip would be about ~ +$18.75 per trip. I reckon 75 BUZs would pull in much more than this for the same cost.

I would invite other members to suggest what they might expect as I've outlined above.

I reckon TMR should share whatever modelling they did with us and brief our members on this.

They must have some idea of the increase upfront based on elasticises information they have and background research they must be finding.

I'm not going to predict a number, but remember that comparisons are complex and you need to account for all factors. In the period of increasing numbers of BUZ routes, for about a decade up to 2012, the number of people on public transport was increasing generally. Now the implementation of all day high frequency and their publicisation definitely increases patronage - frequency is probably the most important single factor - but I would be careful in ascribing 100% of the increase to that without also comparing other routes over the same period.

If it were me as a matter of public policy rather than politics, I would put the money into infrastructure and services rather than fare cuts, but this is the reality we have and I think we need to live with it and work out how to make the best of it.

As a single anecdote, my twenty-one year old son, who is, like much of his generation, extremely cynical about politics and older generations generally, came into the house last night very excited about 50 cent fares, saying how much it would save him on his trip to uni, so it might be seen more positively in the community generally than we here see it.

I think members can have a go at estimating the impact. You can do that here anonymously

50c flat fares trial poll https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15648.msg284186#msg284186

Been booked for an interview on ABC Radio Melbourne around 3:30pm today (27th May 2024).

Melbourne Drive with Ali Moore
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/melbourne-drive

^^ So the other states are taking notice?

QuoteMost increases probably off-peak and weekends when congestion not really an issue for trips to Gold/Sunshine Coast is my hunch. Main increases for leisure/social probably.

If that's the data that comes from the trial, great! The gov can put peak pricing back up to a similar to now level while leaving off-peak at a negligible price. The off-peak services are running anyway, if those low prices mean they are used in greater numbers and shows off-peak frequency is a driver of patronage also (ie: HF off-peak services have much more uptake than LF), then it is good useful data we can use to push the frequency point more.

At this point, as much a political stunt as it may be, it has people actively talking and excited about PT. That alone is fantastic and can shine a spotlight on where issues need solving.

In Queensland ---> Why can 50 cents take you anywhere on a bus or train, but airport train costs $41.80

QuoteThe cost of travelling to Brisbane's domestic and international airport terminals on the privately-operated train service could be subsidised by the Queensland government.

... Transport Minister Bart Mellish says the government has submitted an offer to AirTrain operators to lower fares during the trial.

A return paper ticket from Brisbane's Central Station to the airport costs $41.80 on the private service. ...

 

Could we actually be seeing a reduction of Airtrain Fares as well? Wow!

Quote from: nathandavid88 on May 27, 2024, 16:20:13 PMCould we actually be seeing a reduction of Airtrain Fares as well? Wow!

Depends if it was a serious offer or a political move to make them still look like they are trying to do something when they aren't.

Quote from: ozbob on May 27, 2024, 14:07:54 PMBeen booked for an interview on ABC Radio Melbourne around 3:30pm today (27th May 2024).

Melbourne Drive with Ali Moore
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/melbourne-drive

Interview 27th May 2024 ABC Radio Melbourne Host Ali Moore with Robert Dow RBoT and then Daniel Bowen PTUA

Discussion on the Fifty Cent Fares for Queensland from August 5th.

Here > https://backontrack.org/docs/abcmelb/abcmelb_am_rd_db_27may24.mp3  MP3 14.7MB

A few minutes of introduction but I wanted to capture the Premier's comments.