RAIL - Back On Track Forum

QuoteI would start here

https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-01/Urban-Transport-Systems-TAS-Discussion-Paper-December-2021-revised.pdf

And here

https://www.vtpi.org/gentraf.pdf

Unfortunately, these don't explain the observed SEQ data. It's not adding anything new that new trips from new population doesn't already explain. There isn't evidence of mode shift to car in the SEQ data either. The mode shift seems to be reduced walking, which does not seem to have an obvious explanation  .

It's a big hole in the theory this 🕳, and thus needs some more careful investigation. I also note the SEB opened within the time series as well, no mode shift seen with that there either.

VTPI suggests an increase in car trip frequency... which is not reflected in SEQ trip generation rates.

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/97905

Plan revealed for new northside road tunnel
11 June, 2023 at 10:30 AM

Quote... The Palaszczuk Government will invest $35 million in a detailed investment proposal towards building a congestion-busting road tunnel between Kedron and Carseldine in Brisbane's north.

The proposal will be led by a new entity, North Brisbane Infrastructure, which will be established through the Queensland Investment Corporation.

North Brisbane Infrastructure will undertake detailed transport modelling, technical assessments and financial analysis as part of this process.

The analysis will also consider the interaction of the proposed tunnel with public and active transport needs and opportunities along the corridor. ...

This new entity seems very convenient doesn't it?

 

North Brisbane Infrastructure Gympie Road Bypass

https://www.northbrisbaneinfrastructure.com.au

Quote from: #Metro on October 30, 2023, 09:13:29 AM

QuoteI would start here

https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-01/Urban-Transport-Systems-TAS-Discussion-Paper-December-2021-revised.pdf

And here

https://www.vtpi.org/gentraf.pdf

Unfortunately, these don't explain the observed SEQ data. It's not adding anything new that new trips from new population doesn't already explain. There isn't evidence of mode shift to car in the SEQ data either. The mode shift seems to be reduced walking, which does not seem to have an obvious explanation  .

It's a big hole in the theory this 🕳, and thus needs some more careful investigation. I also note the SEB opened within the time series as well, no mode shift seen with that there either.

VPTI suggests an increase in car trip frequency... which is not reflected in SEQ trip generation rates.

Yet out roads are now congested day, night and even the weekends now and our mode share is getting worse. 

I am sure the flat earthers argue from their perspective the evidence says the earth is flat.

QuoteI am sure the flat earthers argue from their perspective the evidence says the earth is flat.

If you want to show existing motorists are making new additional trips - in SEQ then show that. Or if Clem 7, AirportLink or Legacy Way caused patronage falls on rail or busway network, that should be detectable.

Toll roads charge a steep fee which discourages their use.

People claiming a round earth can at least provide images of a round earth. It should be straightforward to do the same for this.

Facebook ...

Quote from: #Metro on October 30, 2023, 09:51:26 AM

QuoteI am sure the flat earthers argue from their perspective the evidence says the earth is flat.

If you want to show existing motorists are making new additional trips - in SEQ then show that. Or if Clem 7, AirportLink or Legacy Way caused patronage falls on rail or busway network, that should be detectable.

Toll roads charge a steep fee which discourages their use.

People claiming a round earth can at least provide images of a round earth. It should be straightforward to do the same for this.

See research links provided above.

How much longer do you reckon they'll allow for public comments?

QuoteSee research links provided above.

Well, I did, and I pointed out that it makes testable claims that I cannot match with SEQ data from TMR.
Can you match it?

QuoteYet out roads are now congested day, night and even the weekends now and our mode share is getting worse.

I agree with you on this point. Where we disagree is that I don't attribute this to road extension, it's due to a surge in population, which creates genuinely new trips. We can expect an additional ~ 1.1 million new car trips by 2041 by new people moving to the BCC LGA and doing their daily 3.3 trips alone. If they didn't move here, these trips would not be generated, new road or not.

Quote from: #Metro on October 30, 2023, 10:38:24 AM

QuoteSee research links provided above.

Well, I did, and I pointed out that it makes testable claims that I cannot match with SEQ data from TMR.
Can you match it?

IMO the discrepancy is due to (1) change in population over time and (2) geography.

1) You're arguing there has been no additional trips cause by all the additional infrastructure. Yet the changing population will balance against this.

I.e. various levels of government are building more infrastructure, which causes induced traffic. But equally, the population is expanding, placing more trips on the existing infrastructure - which has the opposite effect.

The figures you posted only show that the average trips/person are unchanged. Meaning new infrastructure is being built at a rate to keep up with the population curve. No more, no less.


2) Secondly, Brisbane sprawls for days in every direction, and keeps getting larger. Your figures are total averages. So if you consider a new suburb on the fringe to be entirely made up of new people, the new infrastructure is enabling them to have their 3.3trips/person. But it's inconveniently located to have any meaningful impact on someone living on the opposite side of town.

The new suburb/infrastructure is likely built with similar amount of infrastructure as existing suburbs. Which leads to a similar level of trips/person for new vs existing people.

The only way to get people out of their cars North of Chermside would be to deliver a train tunnel from Albion via Chermside that rejoins the main line north of Carseldine.

Other projects that may also improve commuter times for local Brisbane residents is the missing busway section from Federation Street to Lutwyche, as well as a tunnel extension at Kedron Brook for inbound buses rejoining the busway from the Transit Way.

Another beneficial project that could be delivered alongside this road tunnel is the reconfiguration of the Chermside Bus Station to an inline bus station that is placed parallel and adjacent to Gympie Road.

Alan Fisher did a short video on the Big Dig in Boston, basically the project where they buried their "Central Artery" urban freeway underground. It's a different sort of project but it has some parallels.

https://youtu.be/d5pPKfzzL54

The tl;dw is that their PT is now massively underfunded and even though the motorway is underground their are still wide streets above ground and access ramps to access it which take up space.

Of course Brisbane has experience with tunnels like Legacy Way, Clem Jones Tunnel and the Airport Link, costing nearly $9.7b in construction, or around $12b adjusted for inflation. Figures at around $10b are being suggested for the NWTC. Our politicians sure do have tunnel vision.

The state gov really needs to compare this to fast PT alternatives. I have strong doubts that a car tunnel would remotely stack up against a high frequency PT system.

QuoteBut the Big Dig was first and foremost meant to alleviate congestion. If it has failed to do that, as the Globe analysis suggests, then it is $15 billion down the tube.

https://www.wired.com/2008/11/youve-got-to-ha/

Sent to all outlets:

Proposed Gympie Road Bypass Tunnel Lambasted in Public Consultation

31st October 2023

RAIL Back On Track having called out the Proposed Gympie Road Bypass Tunnel as the wrong solution notes that the people of Brisbane clearly agree.

Within hours of the Public Consultation being open the people of Brisbane have already given clear feedback that they too don't believe the tunnel is the right investment.
( Have your say on the proposed Gympie Road Bypass Tunnel https://www.northbrisbaneinfrastructure.com.au ).

Why does the Palaszczuk Government continue to pursue infrastructure investment rejected by not only industry experts but now the people?

Who has the blinkers on? The politicians? Their Advisers? Or Both?

RAIL Back On Track has noted previously that:

'Busting' congestion lines are just marketing spin. This toll tunnel adds very little new peak direction capacity. A Brisbane Metro BRT bus running every two minutes could have more capacity. Five trains an hour would have more capacity. A Northern Busway to Chermside would have more capacity.

A basic and inconvenient truth is this: roads have a naturally low lane capacity and create the congestion that eventually chokes them. This is why after opening a long list of roads in Brisbane (some tolled) over the last 20 years, car congestion has gotten worse.
Adding yet another toll tunnel to this list is not going to change this reality.

====

We call on the Queensland Government to fund and complete the Northern Busway to Chermside. Its own material states a Northern Busway would have capacity to move up to 18,000 people/direction/hour. That's four times the added peak direction capacity that this toll tunnel offers.

Previous community consultation for the BCC North West Transport Corridor study also recorded that:

https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022-08/20220809-north-west-tranport-network-community-consultation-report-stage2.pdf page 20.

Council received 541 pieces of feedback for the five road ideas (see Table 4). Feedback provided indicated that the community broadly does not see new roads as the solution to the transport problems in the north-west and that a move to public transport is preferred.

The backlash against the tunnel is not surprising. The earlier consultation (by BCC) on transport solutions had a similar response.

Researchers summed it up well: "feedback provided indicated that the community broadly does not see new roads as the solution to the transport
problems in the north-west and that a move to public transport is preferred."

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Quote from: ozbob on October 29, 2023, 05:26:31 AMSent to all outlets:

29th October 2023

A Gympie Road Toll Tunnel will monetise congestion, not bust it

Greetings,

Brisbanetimes has reported this morning that "Brisbane residents have been asked to have their say on a proposed bypass tunnel that could ease congestion in the city's north.
Consultations for the Gympie Road Bypass Tunnel, between Kedron and Carseldine, will begin on Monday, with the proposal expected to reduce commuter times, and improve liveability for local communities. ...".  https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/traffic-and-more-traffic-can-the-north-be-fixed-with-a-new-tunnel-20231028-p5efqq.html

Nothing has changed from what we commented in August 2023

===


A Gympie Road Toll Tunnel will monetise congestion, not bust it

23rd August 2023

RAIL Back On Track (http://backontrack.org) a web based community support group for rail and public transport has called on the Queensland Government to complete the Northern Busway to Chermside in preference to a Gympie Road Toll Tunnel (1,2).

In our opinion, a Gympie Road Toll Tunnel is about monetising Northside congestion.

We expect the proposed toll tunnel to be sold or leased to a private toll road operator after opening. That's how the Queensland Government owned QIC can get their money back sooner, rather than waiting decades to collect it back slowly from toll fees.

'Busting' congestion lines are just marketing spin. This toll tunnel adds very little new peak direction capacity (3). A Brisbane Metro BRT bus running every two minutes would have more capacity. Five trains would have more capacity. A Northern Busway to Chermside would have more capacity.

A basic and inconvenient truth is this: roads have a naturally low lane capacity. This is why after opening a long list of toll roads in Brisbane over the last 20 years, we still have plenty of car congestion.

Adding yet another toll tunnel to this list is not going to change this reality.

We call on the Queensland Government to fund and complete the Northern Busway to Chermside. Its own material states a Northern Busway would have capacity to move up to 18,000 people/direction/hour. That's four times the added peak direction capacity that this toll tunnel offers (4).

If the Minister for Transport and Queensland Government are so concerned about busting Northside congestion, why are they choosing the lowest capacity option?

References

1. Plan for tunnel to avoid Chermside traffic came from govt money-makers
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/plan-for-tunnel-to-avoid-chermside-traffic-came-from-govt-money-makers-20230815-p5dwmd.html

2. Brisbane's New Underground Gold Mines
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/brisbane-s-new-underground-gold-mines-20230816-p5dwwg.html

3. 3 Apr 2023: BCC NWTC Motorway Proposal 'High Cost - Low Capacity'
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15120.0

4. Northern Busway - Archived Full Documents
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=14786.msg261505#msg261505

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

https://x.com/railbotforum/status/1718998141721284839?s=20

 

https://twitter.com/UnwalkableBris1/status/1719108044905386402?t=TVJ4gbQMXvsVgMrZAXpbRg&s=19

Well, a simple question here is 'how much is the toll'?

The new Rozelle interchange in Sydney will be capped at 60 bucks a week.

Unfortunately, Qld tollways don't have a capping model, thus forcing drivers back onto surface streets and roads.

Article from 2017: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/brisbane-metro-to-expand-to-chermside-carindale-and-springwood-20170407-gvgf0j.html

QuoteBrisbane City Council's proposed metro system will eventually be extended to Chermside, Carindale and Springwood, deputy mayor Adrian Schrinner said, as more details of the revised project were revealed.

According to the council's plans, the new Chermside line would feed into the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital station[...]

Cr Schrinner said, ideally, the expanded Brisbane Metro would run along the yet-to-be built Eastern Busway and Northern Busway extensions, but it could still be delivered prior to those state projects being completed.

All that would be required in that scenario would be dedicated bus lanes and the construction of Brisbane Metro platforms.

Having the Brisbane Metro mixing with general traffic, Cr Schrinner said, would "defeat the purpose" of the high-frequency service, which would have a service every three minutes during peak times.

"We'd need to procure additional vehicles to do that, but in the scheme of things, once we've got the model in place and it's operating with Metro 1 and Metro 2, I think it could be scaled quite quickly."

The Chermside connection was mooted by Rail: Back on Track public transport lobbyist Robert Dow earlier this week as a future Brisbane Metro route.

If only Brisbane still had Schrinner from 2017 

Is the daily traffic volume for Gympie Road ~ 150,000 vehicles?

Would imply 180,000 people/day on the corridor.

SE Busway moves 150,000 people per day, or 125,000 car-equivalents.

QGov's AADT for the Pine Rivers bridge was 160k (both directions combined) for 2019.

But that includes Gateway traffic. Immediately north of the Beams Rd intersection it was more like 80k (both directions). It drops to around 70k further south; e.g. Sadlier St Kedron is about 73k. Again, this is both directions combined.

As another point of comparison, the Captain Cook Bridge was at about 120k.

Advertisment BT web site.  Links to https://www.northbrisbaneinfrastructure.com.au

Isnt the whole concept of a shadow toll just a bit of a scam?

The government giving itself (A government corporation) money.
Or the government giving a private company money to build an own a road despite the fact the government is more than capable of building 99% of the other roads in existence.

Its no surprise that the majority of Shadow Toll roads exist in the UK.
(The UK seems to be the world's source of ridiculous thinking around transport)


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_toll

Im aware that Peninsula link was done this way in Vic, but to me it was more because the government wanted to appear on paper to not have debt.

But in recent years it seems like governments have gotten over their phobia of borrowing....

I'm sure it's been mentioned here but there doesn't seem to be a limit on the number of times you can respond to their survey. I've responded 3 times, each time advocating for an active and public transport solution rather than a road, let alone a tolled one.

I'm not 100% sure they're going to take that much notice of the responses and will push ahead for their "preferred" solution (see the Trouts Road corridor survey and the mis-read from the BCC as an example), but I'm not going to miss this opportunity to 'have my say'..... how every many times that might be until it closes. 

Don't forget to up or down vote the comments from others. 

The feedback website has elements of 'push polling'. It is just a 'tell and sell' exercise. The questions are not posed or framed in a neutral way, for example, asking for feedback about the ADVANTAGES of the project, with no mention of potential disadvantages, etc.

Quote from: #Metro on November 03, 2023, 08:41:59 AMDon't forget to up or down vote the comments from others. 

The feedback website has elements of 'push polling'. It is just a 'tell and sell' exercise. The questions are not posed or framed in a neutral way, for example, asking for feedback about the ADVANTAGES of the project, with no mention of potential disadvantages, etc.

Most likely just like BCC - "we received mixed feedback" and we just moving on.

We now have data about the Gympie Road Traffic Volumes. #Data

Gympie Road Options Analysis
https://www.hdrinc.com/au/portfolio/gympie-road-options-analysis

Quote from: HDRThe Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) commissioned HDR to undertake an Options Analysis for the 10km long Gympie Road corridor in northern Brisbane. It is one of the most congested corridors in Brisbane, carrying over 75,000 vehicles per day and 60 buses per hour on a six lane arterial road. Traffic and bus patterns are complex with Gympie road serving major traffic generators and attractors.

So one bus a minute in peak hour. It's pushing 4,000 pphd if you are assuming full 65-seat buses.
There is probably a bit of air in that figure, actual volumes are probably say 80% of that figure.

75,000 vehicles per day implies 90,000 pax/day (assuming 1.2 pax/car)
Yearly this is about 19.5 million people carried per year.

At ~ 40 million trips/year, the SEB already carries 2x this volume per year. 

The numbers tell you a very different story to the narratives... so now you know. 

Notes
Numbers cross-checked with a credible source, similar figures.

Have your say on plans to upgrade the Gympie Arterial Road and Murphy Road intersection
https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/98287

QuoteAbout 67,000 vehicles travel through this intersection every day and it's important for the community to have their say about how we can address current and future transport needs, including active and public transport.

Imagine if the ~ $40 million or so spent on studies was spent on actual bus service improvement.

QuoteIn a significant development for Brisbane's northern suburbs, a $35 million study will be led by the Queensland Investment Corporation to explore the potential construction of a toll tunnel connecting Kedron and Carseldine. This ambitious project, spanning about 7 kilometres, promises to reduce congestion and improve connectivity by seamlessly linking the Bruce Highway to Legacy Way, Clem 7, M1, and Centenary Highway.

https://x.com/brisbanetimes/status/1724546391568175555?s=20

 

What a space cadet.

It wouldn't even be the most important road project, let alone transport project.

Can't wait until this Clowncil is turfed out on its backside - hopefully this March.  I no longer care what replaces it.

It is almost time to put on the Bell Bottoms, Wide Collars and Paisley Dresses there is so much 1970's car-brain going on

How did we go from a rail proposal on the NWTC to a car toll tunnel?

Quote from: SurfRail on November 15, 2023, 08:46:57 AMWhat a space cadet.

It wouldn't even be the most important road project, let alone transport project.

Can't wait until this Clowncil is turfed out on its backside - hopefully this March.  I no longer care what replaces it.

and with the Lord mayor the unavoidable/mandatory Chair of the SEQ Council of Mayors he is toxic across the whole region

https://x.com/BrendanNatoli/status/1724573801302966422?s=20

There was a consult session at the Geebung bowlo today.

* Obviously this specific project wasn't in QGov planning
* What *is* pre-existing is a bunch of northern/western Brisbane transport planning identifying the need for a second freeway level connection other than the Gateway
* Historic high level planning includes e.g. NWTC corridor then something along Stafford Rd corridor to Kedron
* ... but if it's all in tunnel anyway, as NWTC looks to be, you might as well take the direct route
* Scoping at this stage is purely as a toll tunnel, no surface PT in the project package (understandable).
* Traffic high-level justification on growth in Moreton Bay and in Sunshine Coast.

---

Personally, I wouldn't have a problem with this being built privately. If investors want to lose their shirt on another AirportLink, more power to them. But once it starts being built with public money (and QIC, to me, is effectively that) I have an issue.

The people I spoke to were conscious of the fact that *conditional* on there being proper mode-share targets and a regional plan that ends urban sprawl, this wouldn't be the right project. But... we don't have proper mode-share targets, and we do have continuing sprawl.

Quote from: aldonius on November 18, 2023, 20:48:48 PMThere was a consult session at the Geebung bowlo today.

* Obviously this specific project wasn't in QGov planning
* What *is* pre-existing is a bunch of northern/western Brisbane transport planning identifying the need for a second freeway level connection other than the Gateway
* Historic high level planning includes e.g. NWTC corridor then something along Stafford Rd corridor to Kedron
* ... but if it's all in tunnel anyway, as NWTC looks to be, you might as well take the direct route
* Scoping at this stage is purely as a toll tunnel, no surface PT in the project package (understandable).
* Traffic high-level justification on growth in Moreton Bay and in Sunshine Coast.

---

Personally, I wouldn't have a problem with this being built privately. If investors want to lose their shirt on another AirportLink, more power to them. But once it starts being built with public money (and QIC, to me, is effectively that) I have an issue.

The people I spoke to were conscious of the fact that *conditional* on there being proper mode-share targets and a regional plan that ends urban sprawl, this wouldn't be the right project. But... we don't have proper mode-share targets, and we do have continuing sprawl.

Thanks for the report on your experience and the information they provided to you. Yet, we have to change the narrative and the scope of the project to include some new Public Transport infrastructure projects at the same time. Similar to what CRR is doing delivering new stations, this project can be delivered in the same way. Therefore, including a new bus station at Chermside and the missing tunnel section southbound on Gympie road at Kedron, which can allow buses and potential metro vehicles to seamlessly enter the busway.

Couriermail --> Kedron to Carseldine tunnel would slash 30 minutes off peak-hour commute $

QuoteA new $14bn northside tunnel linking Kedron to Carseldine could slash travel time by 30 minutes in peak hour and end the frustration of motorists gridlocked on Gympie Road.

The 7km Gympie Road Bypass Tunnel from Kedron to Carseldine would join the existing Airport Link, giving motorists a seamless journey from the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital at Bowen Hills to a few hundred metres from the start of the Bruce Highway.

Analysis by The Courier-Mail for the Future Brisbane campaign reveals motorists could save up to 30 minutes in travel time during the afternoon peak hour rush. ...

... RACQ Advocacy general manager Joshua Cooney welcomed the tunnel proposal and said thought should be given to adding a public transport component "so it's not just another toll road". ...

Grade 3 flying pig alert!

   

Fair travel-time analysis, at least. Roughly 8km tunnel, design speed 80 km/h, uncongested travel speed about 6 minutes. Google Maps suggests that from Lutwyche Rd crossing Kedron Brook to just north of the Beams Rd intersection can take up to 40 minutes (minimum 14). That's at the worst of the PM peak hours from about 3pm til 5pm.

https://x.com/bne_lordmayor/status/1726357273256329328?s=20

" Metro wash "