RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Quote from: Jonno on October 22, 2023, 09:19:52 AMThere are better choices than the 2 major parties

That may well be the case, however with compulsory preferential voting in Qld, there's a good chance that your vote is going to end up with one of the two majors eventually.

M1 Motorway Corridor Spending Estimated to Approach $10 Billion

Some food for thought on all the road projects just being focused on the M1 corridor alone...
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=14912.40

Here is a list of recent and planned expenditures on the M1 (committed funds):
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/programs/pacific-motorway-m1-upgrade-program

Project
Coomera interchange -    $74.7 million
Coomera Connector Stage 1 -    $1.53 billion
Coomera Connector Future Stages - $11 million
Daisy Hill to Logan Motorway - $1 billion
Eight Mile Plains to Daisy Hill - $750 million
Logan Motorway to Palm Beach - $19.8 million
Loganholme to Pimpama - $1.4 million
M1/M3 Gateway Merge - $195.3 million
Mudgeeraba to Robina - $95.5 million
Mudgeeraba to Varsity Lakes - $218.5 million
Oxenford interchange - $25 million
Ormeau interchange - $20 million
Pacific Motorway interchange upgrades - $212.9 million
Pimpama interchange -    $110.8 million
Varsity Lakes to Tugun - $1.0 billion
Worongary to Mudgeeraba - $95.5 million
Yatala South Interchange $82.1 million
------
Grand Total: $5.4 billion
------

Now, you add in 29 km of proposed new motorway between Loganholme and Coomera

QuoteFeedback on the concept design for the remaining 29-kilometres of the Loganholme to Coomera corridor will inform the project's business case.

29 km x 150 million/km => $4.350 billion.      [150 million/km is a 'test value']

Estimated Expenditure on Corridor:

$5.4 billion + $4.350 billion = $9.75 billion, let's say about $10 billion.

So, you are looking at ~ $10 billion being spent connecting Brisbane - Logan - Gold Coast on the M1 corridor, broadly using roads. It's on a scale similar to CRR.

How much more capacity in peak will we get with these roads? Assuming 3 lanes on the duplicated M1 each way and 1,800 vehicles per hour, we will get +6,480 pphd (depending on the road design) using cars, or about 6.5 train load equivalents.

R1 Rail Alternative

- Taking $10 billion and spreading it over 30 km R1 rail, gives 300 million/km.
- If the R1 project were to keep under or match that per-km cost* it would be similar in cost to the amount of money we already intend to spend on motorways in the M1 corridor.

- *Note, I am not saying that it will because the merits turn on cost/benefit analysis, which is different to a cost-only analysis

Comparison
Morley-Ellenbrook line is 21 km being done for $1.7 billion which gives 80.95 million/km. Projects on the East coast tend to be 1.5-2x more expensive than than in WA, so we can adjust up by 2x to $161.9 million/km. This figure is still well below the $300 million/km comparable established under the 'Finances' paragraph above.

Metronet - Morley to Ellenbrook Line
https://infrastructurepipeline.org/project/metronet-morley-to-ellenbrook-line

Quote from: achiruel on October 22, 2023, 10:10:31 AM

Quote from: Jonno on October 22, 2023, 09:19:52 AMThere are better choices than the 2 major parties

That may well be the case, however with compulsory preferential voting in Qld, there's a good chance that your vote is going to end up with one of the two majors eventually.

https://x.com/mchandlermather/status/1529297272928096256?s=46&t=EDszjTErsxTIqAna7yuP-w

So. Greens won 3/30 Queensland seats at the last Federal election. So, for the majority of voters, my point stands. Greens need to poll at least 25, if not 30% of the primary vote to have a realistic chance of winning. There are a handful of Labor seats that might be vulnerable to the Greens. Many of their policies are nonsense anyway, like free public transport, and thinking they can build fast rail to Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba for $4 bil. Laughable.

Greens policies are aimed at inner city folk. As long as they keep sprucing stupid unrealistic policies they will always be last behind the two major parties and independents.

Quote from: HappyTrainGuy on October 22, 2023, 15:27:54 PMinner city folk

Who are, famously, not worthy of consideration, unlike Real Australians™

Quite frankly all the political parties are useless. They all go to the extremes rather than just using common sense. Same applies for local councils too. Everyone has an agenda and a particular market to pander too. BCC is a prime example where over the years the none of the opposing parties put up anything of substance - where local labour members campaigned against service reviews and cuts to bus routes - and the lnp just steam rolls every election.

All I was pointing out was Queensland isn't all just in the seq area. Tactics and political spin might work there as that's your market and demographic but it may not work elsewhere across the majority of the state. And when you have them making claims such as "trains travelling in excess of 160kph" and brisbane to Ipswich in 20 mins you know it's bs aimed at those in the seq area. That's an entirely new corridor and new fleet. And that's ignoring the issues of when you get to rollingstock hitting 140-150kph. Fast rail will then open hsr in Queensland... not going to happen. That's an entirely new seperate corridor. That's just from their active transport. Similar problems occur across all other areas of you start diving into it.

Quote from: ozbob on October 22, 2023, 01:51:20 AMCouriermail --> Opposition Leader David Crisafulli announces priorities ahead of state election and beyond $

QuoteYoung Queenslanders will be helped into their own home under an "ambitious" plan released by Opposition Leader David Crisafulli as he attempts to draw the battlelines a year out from the state election.

Mr Crisafulli is closely eyeing tax relief, incentives and moves to unlock more housing supply as he announced a new target to make Queensland the home-ownership capital of the nation.

The pitch for the youth vote, revealed to The Sunday Mail, comes 12 months before Queenslanders will decide whether Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk should remain for four more years – or if it's time for change.

To mark the countdown, Mr Crisafulli has released what he labels an "ambitious, bold and visionary" 10-year target to lift Queensland home ownership rates to the top of the ladder.

The state has the lowest rate of ownership in every age bracket, across Australia. ...

LNP The Right Priorities For Queensland's Future October 2023 PDF 2.7MB

These are the only times in the LNP ' LNP The Right Priorities For Queensland's Future ' document (23 double pages [46 single pages]) that transport is mentioned. Page references below are the double page numbers.

A nothing burger ... 

Page 15

" ... When projects have cost overruns, other critical works
get delayed or cancelled. That's roads that can't get
widened, intersections that can't be made safer and
rail crossings that will continue to cause delays to
motorists and public transport. ... "

Page 15

" ... Whether it is the growing threat of water restrictions
because new water supplies haven't been secured,
the lack of energy security with ever-growing
demands on our electricity grid or the ever-growing
traffic congestion because transport infrastructure is
lagging behind, this Labor Government's decisions are
impacting our way of life. ... "

Page 15

" ... We will restore discipline to the delivery of new
transport, utilities and social infrastructure. Projects
will be properly planned and then delivered prudently,
with the aim of maximising the benefit of every
taxpayer dollar. ... "

Page 17

" ... An LNP Government will also ensure regional
Queensland has the transport links, health services
and social infrastructure needed for their continued
prosperity.  ... "

Page 18

" ... She is worried about the Brisbane-centric focus of
the Labor Government and the impacts on transport,
infrastructure, health and policing. She's worried
the Government seems to have checked-out on the
important decisions and has no interest in consulting
regional Queenslanders about decisions impacting
their lives. ... "

More roads!!!

Interesting how free public transport is a crazy policy but free roads is economic "progress"

Quote from: Jonno on October 23, 2023, 05:40:48 AMMore roads!!!

Interesting how free public transport is a crazy policy but free roads is economic "progress"

Free public transport is a brain fart. Greens go on giving all these examples that are in tiny cities/countries with smaller populations than the Gold Coast, let alone all of SEQ.

Just like public transport, roads are a necessary part of our transport system. While roads shouldn't be used to do things that rail can do better (which is unfortunately happening right now), Queensland is a huge state, and there are areas where rail is genuinely not viable.

Also, roads are not "free" at all (unless you're drive an EV, < 1% of the national fleet), taxation is paid every time you purchase fuel. Whether the taxation is sufficient is a different issue, but it is wrong to suggest there is no user contribution.

Quote from: achiruel on October 23, 2023, 06:50:37 AM

Quote from: Jonno on October 23, 2023, 05:40:48 AMMore roads!!!

Interesting how free public transport is a crazy policy but free roads is economic "progress"

Free public transport is a brain fart. Greens go on giving all these examples that are in tiny cities/countries with smaller populations than the Gold Coast, let alone all of SEQ.

Just like public transport, roads are a necessary part of our transport system. While roads shouldn't be used to do things that rail can do better (which is unfortunately happening right now), Queensland is a huge state, and there are areas where rail is genuinely not viable.

Also, roads are not "free" at all (unless you're drive an EV, < 1% of the national fleet), taxation is paid every time you purchase fuel. Whether the taxation is sufficient is a different issue, but it is wrong to suggest there is no user contribution.

But that's not the message that is discussed when raising/discussing fares is it. It all revenue and the size of the subsidies.  Not a single mention of the tax-payer subsidy when announcing road projects. Its the double standard I object vehemently to.  We don't discuss revenue for police services, schools, hospitals, community services, etc. but "oh hang on public transport that's different. That needs to cover some of the costs to pay for the service!!!  It just so expensive for the tax-payer."   

Could you imagine if as part of the "Coomera Connector" the discussion was not only about the construction cost but the ongoing tax subsidy for every trip and the size of the impact on the health budget.  We hardly see a murmur about the costs.  Its just all "we are busting congestion- get out of the way you pesky endangered wetlands."

QuoteBut that's not the message that is discussed when raising/discussing fares is it. It all revenue and the size of the subsidies.  Not a single mention of the tax-payer subsidy when announcing road projects. Its the double standard I object vehemently to.  We don't discuss revenue for police services, schools, hospitals, community services, etc. but "oh hang on public transport that's different. That needs to cover some of the costs to pay for the service!!!  It just so expensive for the tax-payer." 

Could you imagine if as part of the "Coomera Connector" the discussion was not only about the construction cost but the ongoing tax subsidy for every trip and the size of the impact on the health budget.  We hardly see a murmur about the costs.  Its just all "we are busting congestion- get out of the way you pesky endangered wetlands."

Jonno has a point in that politicians tend to choose fast projects that have low capacity. Yes both public transport and public roads have the word 'public' in front of them and thus both taxpayer funded. More roads is not a good fit for the region because it is high cost, low capacity.

Achiruel has a point in the sense that roads are essential to all transport. Without roads there can be no bus service and no way for cars to get to the train station in the absence of them.

Modal competition is what is lacking in many of these transport proposals. I would like to see the cost per added peak-hour user for proposals, right now nobody seems to know what these numbers are, but they are important because we have a choice between a high cost path and a lower cost one.

Free PT has been tested in increasingly rigorous studies, but the performance of this policy is not good.

QuoteThe impact of fare-free public transport on travel behavior: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial ($)
Regional Science and Urban Economics
Volume 86, January 2021, 103616

Authors: Owen Bull, Juan Carlos Muñoz, Hugo E. Silva
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103616

QuoteThis study investigates the causal effect of providing a fare-free public transport system on detailed travel behavior. Unlike previous studies, we do this experimentally, and we do not limit our attention to one particular transport mode or one specific type of day or trip purpose.

QuoteFinally, we find that having access to a fare-free public transport system did not have an impact on car trips. In particular, we did not find a significant effect on total car trips in the two-week treatment period, on car trips made during peak periods, or on car trips to travel to work or return home. Therefore, we find no evidence that fare-free public transport decreases negative externalities or that it increases public transport crowding during peak periods.

QuoteFree PT has been tested in increasingly rigorous studies, but the performance of this policy is not good.

When used as a sole policy to drive passenger growth. No argument there. 

But there are 100 other reasons for a policy on it being free...especially for children and adults who have grown up in a car culture (my kids included) and think it is scary, unsafe and are looking for any barrier to not catch public transport, cost of living to triggering the conversation around tax-payer subsidy of all transport.  Just like discounts to registrations or licences or tolls. 

If the single response to the policy is "its crazy or a brain fart" then we are supporting the status quo I described above and in fact doubling down on it.

Couriermail --> Premier's shock 369-day campaign launch in flashy taxpayer-funded video $

QuoteAnnastacia Palaszczuk has moved to cement her leadership and launched a 369-day election campaign by releasing a plea to Queenslanders to trust her for another four years.

In an unusual campaign pitch 12 months before the state heads to the polls, Ms Palaszczuk voiced and released a high-production, taxpayer-funded video trumpeting the government's achievements and asking voters to give her a fourth term.

In it, the Premier insists she has "a lot more to do" in the top job, amid leadership rumblings and polling putting Labor on track to lose the election. ...

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1721545544798249466?s=20

https://x.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1729774644163436988?s=20

Hopefully he's out within 12 months.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/qld-parliament-live-blog-baileys-blowout-31bn-cost-hike-puts-govt-back-in-firing-line/live-coverage/54b438060854d6671aca891bc29fc06d

Quote... Powerful Queensland Labor Senator and former party state secretary Anthony Chisholm has called for Transport Minister Mark Bailey to be transparent about the skyrocketing costs of projects.

In an extraordinary intervention, Senator Chisholm weighed in on the conduct of Mr Bailey, who this week said the federal government broke protocol by revealing the Gold Coast Faster Rail Project had increased by $3.1bn.

"He's under significant pressure on cost overruns," Senator Chisholm said.

"He should be upfront with the people of Queensland and actually say these things are costing more.

"The state government need to be upfront about that as well." ...

I am certain that the present shambles and mega cluster fuk in transport, particularly with respect to public transport could have been well avoided had the Government moved with the formation of the Public Transport Authority as suggested by the Citytrain Response Unit review (https://www.cru.qld.gov.au).

Hey          it's not too late. 

Delay any more and you be ' gone ' !

Queensland Parliament Questions Without Notice

https://documents.parliament.qld.gov.au/events/han/2023/2023_11_29_DAILY.pdf

Gold Coast Faster Rail Project

Mr CRISAFULLI (10.17 am): My question is to the Premier. Can the Premier advise when she
became aware that the Gold Coast Faster Rail project had blown out by $3.1 billion, and why did she
fail to tell Queenslanders?

Ms PALASZCZUK: It is obvious that the Leader of the Opposition and none of them over there
are fit for government, because they do not understand how government operates. We know—
Honourable members interjected.

Ms PALASZCZUK: No, they do not, Mr Speaker. It is embarrassing that they have no basic
understanding that departments go through processes—

Mr Mickelberg interjected.

Mr SPEAKER: Member for Buderim!

Ms PALASZCZUK: Departments go through processes. Ministers then write to—

An honourable member interjected.

Ms PALASZCZUK: No. Ministers then write to their federal counterparts, and then their federal
counterparts write back confirming whether or not the money is approved. They are the basic
processes—

Mr Powell interjected.

Mr SPEAKER: Member for Glass House!

Ms PALASZCZUK: We know there is a choice here about whether to go ahead and build Faster
Rail or not. We will be building Faster Rail because Logan deserves Faster Rail. The opposition might
not be aware, but Logan is one of the fastest growing areas in Queensland with a population—this is a
year out—of 363,000 people. The growth in Logan is 3.53 per cent. Mr Speaker, let me talk to you
about—

An opposition member interjected.

Ms PALASZCZUK: I answered the question. The departments work it out—

Mr Powell interjected.

Mr SPEAKER: The member for Glass House is warned under the standing orders.

Ms PALASZCZUK:—and then the minister writes to the federal minister. The Logan and Gold
Coast Faster Rail project will double the number of tracks between Kuraby and Beenleigh. It doubles
the—

Opposition members interjected.

Ms PALASZCZUK: They do not want to hear about the infrastructure project. Well, I am going
to tell you. This doubles the capacity of the line, meaning more frequent and reliable train services.
Opposition members interjected.

Mr SPEAKER: Members to my left, I am having difficulty—

Mr POWELL: Mr Speaker, I rise to a point of order.

Mr SPEAKER: Apologies for interrupting, Premier. I am having difficulty hearing the Premier. I
would ask that the interjections cease. What is your point of order?

Mr POWELL: Relevance, 118(b). The question was: when did the Premier find out—

Mr SPEAKER: You can sit down at the moment, member for Glass House.

Ms PALASZCZUK: The station upgrades between Kuraby and Beenleigh include full
accessibility upgrades, new pedestrian bridges and lifts, additional park-and-ride spaces, level crossing
removals at Kuraby, Woodridge, Bethania, Holmview and Beenleigh, and a new dedicated active
transport connection, and they will also assist with the Olympics.

Mr Crisafulli: Was it the same time you found out about the fire ants?

Mr SPEAKER: The Leader of the Opposition will direct his comments through the chair or he will
cease interjecting.

Ms PALASZCZUK: All that the Leader of the Opposition is proving in this House is that he is not
fit to govern. He is absolutely unfit.

Mr LANGBROEK: Mr Speaker, I rise to a point of order under standing order 118(a) about
debating the subject to which the question refers.

Ms PALASZCZUK: I am giving facts.

Mr SPEAKER: Thank you very much, member for Surfers Paradise. The Premier, as I hear her,
has gone in and out of that particular space. Premier, you have 13 seconds remaining.
Ms PALASZCZUK: Then the process is that the Australian government release the outcome of
their infrastructure review, we await formal confirmation and then, as the minister said, it goes into the
MYFER process. It is called a budget—

(Time expired)

Mr BROWN: Mr Speaker, I rise to a point of order. The Leader of the Opposition was on his feet
with three seconds to go in the Premier's answer, asking for the call.
Mr SPEAKER: Thank you for your point of order, member for Capalaba. I will actually remind all
members on all sides of the House that members should not be rising to their feet ahead of a member
finishing their contribution.

What is the point?  Are the Opposition suggesting it shouldn't be built now?  If so have the guts to say so.

Sometime I do think anarchy would provide better outcomes Both side are just taking us backwards

Well, maybe their thinking is cancel it and redirect the funding to Sunshine coast.

Can't be ruled out.

Couriermail --> Qld politics: Robert Schwarten says new face needed for Labor $

QuoteAnnastacia Palaszczuk must consider resigning and a "new model" chosen to keep Labor relevant and give it a fighting chance at the next election, party powerbroker Robert Schwarten has declared.

In a stunning intervention likely to add pressure on Ms Palaszczuk's attempt to remain premier, the former Beattie government minister warned after almost nine years, tired Queensland voters were turning to the "shiny new" offering from LNP leader David Crisafulli.

Mr Schwarten remains an influential voice in Queensland Labor as a senior member of the Old Guard faction, which is aligned with the Caucus' powerful United Workers Union group – run by the state's most significant powerbroker, Gary Bullock. ...

Couriermail --> Call a spill': Labor stalwart's stunning attack on Premier $

QuoteLabor MPs must declare no confidence in Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's leadership and force her to stand down to avoid an inevitable government wipe-out, a party stalwart has declared.

Labor Party life member and former Beattie and Goss government minister Bob Gibbs has launched the most brutal attack yet on Ms Palaszczuk's leadership, describing her as "the walking dead" and labelling the process for her removal "bullsh*t". ...

https://twitter.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1730498744750100683?t=2Y7KgnuqdRqbdW_j_k_olg&s=19

Labor stalwart launches another attack on the Premier | 7 News Australia

Couriermail --> 'Autocracy': Premier's ex-mentor calls for leadership rule change $

QuoteAnnastacia Palaszczuk's former mentor is calling for an end to the "tortured process" of removing a Labor leader, declaring party MPs should know when it's time for them to go.

Former Speaker, Beattie and Bligh government minister John Mickel is the latest Queensland Labor stalwart to weigh into leadership rumblings, following former ministers Robert Schwarten and Bob Gibbs' attacks on Ms Palaszczuk in past days.

Labor leadership rules introduced in the wake of the federal tussle between Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard now require at least half of the parliament's Labor MPs to petition party headquarters to hold a vote. ...

In Queensland --> Even a Muppet can see Premier is heading for an iceberg, but too stubborn to change course

Quote... Right now she looks every bit like the captain of the Titanic, startled when a clueless crew member rushes in and announces the arrival of an iceberg. ...

It's worth reflecting on whether it is possible to change the course of fate.

Red Team are in this position because they have been in office for a long time and their administration appears to be at the end of life.

Whether the leader is changed or not might not matter, the outcome is likely to be the same, no matter which path is chosen.

Miles could probably topple Palaszczuk as leader but it wouldn't make a difference. The minerals council and media are already running a pretty big campaign to remove QLD Labor and I think they'll get their wish.

Would be nice if there was a better way to clean house for Labor than losing elections but it seems like members are being ignored more and more as of late. Hope this LNP mob aren't as bad a Newman but I really don't like the thought of the usual blue team trademarks of privatisation and the public service being decimated.

2024 is going to be very interesting politically.  I am looking forward to it. 

Couriermail --> Annastacia Palaszczuk leadership pressure: Premier's stunning admission over latest attack $

QuoteAnnastacia Palaszczuk has acknowledged a calculated campaign to undermine her leadership could be under way, but said any vote of no confidence would be a matter for Labor MPs when they meet in February.

Ms Palaszcuk on Monday was again forced to answer repeated questions about her leadership following the intervention of two former ministers, who have called on her to resign or Labor MPs to move a no-confidence motion against her leadership.

Any leadership threat is not imminent, with Labor MPs not due to meet again until February. ...

Quote from: NothingToSay on December 04, 2023, 11:20:33 AMMiles could probably topple Palaszczuk as leader but it wouldn't make a difference. The minerals council and media are already running a pretty big campaign to remove QLD Labor and I think they'll get their wish.

Would be nice if there was a better way to clean house for Labor than losing elections but it seems like members are being ignored more and more as of late. Hope this LNP mob aren't as bad a Newman but I really don't like the thought of the usual blue team trademarks of privatisation and the public service being decimated.

I still reckon there's a good chance neither major will form a majority and we could end up with a Labor/Green minority government, so the Mineral Council's plan might well backfire on them.

Mark Bailey is going to be leader or Deputy?

Quote from: #Metro on December 04, 2023, 13:43:43 PMMark Bailey is going to be leader or Deputy?

Depends who is left after the elections I guess. 

I am inclined to think we might end up with the ALP/Greens/Independents/Mad Hatters minority government rather than the LNP.

Folk are still very touchy about their last time in the LNP.  But will probably vote for the others rather than the LNP around SEQ. Regional it's mainly blue I think.

What does our political sage think?  (Aldonius ?)

https://x.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1731586427182252434?s=20

https://x.com/10NewsFirstQLD/status/1731574324396536216?s=20

Couriermail --> Premier awake to leadership threat amid new call for MPs to act $

QuoteCalls are mounting for Labor MPs to be given the final say on who leads the party as Annastacia Palaszczuk concedes her premiership is under attack.

Days of public and private criticism of Ms Palaszczuk's leadership were brought to a head on Monday as Ms Palaszczuk faced questions about whether she believed a no-confidence motion in her 52-person Labor Caucus was imminent. ...