RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Quote from: #Metro on October 20, 2024, 09:40:52 AMEstimating patronage: check out the difference between the result from the methodology used here on RBOT and TMR's. I got 0.91 million pax p.a. and TMR got 1.04 million pax.  

Estimation of Patronage Under a Set of Assumptions
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?msg=269602

Quote from: #MetroEstimation of Patronage Under a Set of Assumptions

Using a test value of PT=1% and a value of 175,000 for population...

(175,000/100) x 2 trips/day x 5 days/week x 52 weeks = 0.91 million pax/year.

This assumes 1750 daily boardings (e.g. towards Ipswich/Brisbane) at Toowoomba station.

More precise figures could be obtained by travel surveys and traffic surveys to determine how many people were already commuting by car.

TMR value 4,000 pax/day x 5 weekdays x 52 weeks = 1.04 million

Quote from: HTGTMR already fund/subsidise greyhound buses across Queensland. We've already had this discussion previously on Toowoomba-Brisbane services.

Do they subsidise the Toowoomba-Brisbane route? If not, why not?

Quote from: HTGOne problem is going to be fare equipment and fare collecting. Tickets will have to be purchased online prior. If you want to contract outside greyhound that's your biggest problem. You need an operator that has buses that can run the route/distance while also meeting compliance. That rules a lot of operators out. There are many operators out there that can do that service. KBL, CBL, Thompsons etc but they don't have any infrastructure out that way.

Is the fare/ticketing issue insurmountable? How do other states such as WA, VIC and NSW do it?

Quote from: HTGNSW buslink and vline spawned out of very different circumstances. Railway lines and population centres are different so sizing varies along with the amount of towns. They shut down railway lines and put a bus in place.... To do that now from scratch simply would be too expensive both in nsw or in qld. Even if you just want to do a small network you need buses, drivers and fleet facilities. All cost preventive for such a minor amount of passenger traffic.

Too expensive, as compared with what? TMR was just studying a railway line upgrade which would be orders of magnitude more expensive to deliver, and would also require paying for drivers, fleet facilities and vehicles. Indeed, whereas a coach would have 1 staff member, a train would have two, and possibly more for onboard service.

Quote from: HTGToowoomba is already part of the translink network.

Yes, with the recent 50c fares initiative, the Toowoomba fare zones are wiped out. But it's not part of the SEQ network map, and neither are the coach services Brisbane-Toowoomba, and they probably should be added.

Quote from: HTGWhat is everyone's obsession with Wellcamp? Why does every train or bus for Toowoomba have to go via Wellcamp? It's no where near town. Wellcamp doesn't warrant a pt service. It's similar to arguing the cruise terminal needs a buz

It's a private airport connection van that will cost an additional $20 and is not integrated PT. Comparison to providing a BUZ to the cruise terminal is an exaggeration, nobody is asking for HF levels of service, just a lifeline basic connection for a city of 173,000 residents.

Quote from: SurfRailThe difference with the other services the State subsidises is that they wouldn't be commercially viable on their own or in the case of flights would be prohibitively expensive.  Many long distance bus services (most Greyhound services, the Premier service etc), certain ferries (eg to North Stradbroke) are self-sustaining without breaking a traveller's bank.

A private operator that is not subsidised will provide only the commercially viable level of service and that will usually fall well short of the socially desired level of service / community expectations (cost, frequency, span). Airtrain is a good example of this problem.

Transport is the product, modes are just a means of delivering it. A subsidised operator between Brisbane and Toowoomba would be able to increase service levels from about 4 per day each way to 18, the same as the proposed train and charge a 50c fare rather than $35-40 fare. Patronage under that scenario will be far higher and the service much better overall IMO, and TMR could potentially deliver it within one election term.

Let's move things forward for PT to Toowoomba.

Wellcamp Airport Shuttle (from $20)
https://www.shuttlebugtbar.com.au/wellcamp-airport-shuttle

I think it was v9 that wanted a frequent service to the cruise terminal via runway 2. The same remains. There is nothing at wellcamp at the moment. No need for services there.

Tickets in other states are pre booked either online, over the phone or at a station. And there are cut off times so you can't book at the last minute. This is their network so that's easy. If you have greyhound then tickets would have to be booked via their existing services. The problem with greyhound and 50 cents is that you'll have people flooding the brisbane-Toowoomba corridor.

More foam than substance in this.

My point was more that if you make Gatton a nearby and fast rail hub, it is in Greyhound's interest to make the shorter (and cheaper!) journey from there.
No need for fast rail all the way to Toowoomba. Certainly not with how the proposed circuitous route looked.
There could be incentives to make the journey start from there if they persist coming from the city, such as a small subsidy or threatening to make a council bus line there. No need for 50c greyhounds though -- that makes no sense.

Google Maps tells me the current Greyhound bus route GX701 takes 35 minutes from Gatton to Toowoomba, stopping at Grantham and Withcott.
Whereas the Brisbane to Gatton Greyhound leg takes 1 hour and 10 minutes stopping only at Plainland and Gatton UQ.

The current Central to Rosewood train takes 1 hour and 12 minutes stopping at 21 stations, or 1 hour and 20 minutes when it stops at 29 stations.
From the proposed map, it looks like no work would be done before Rosewood so those times would remain. Maybe it could save time by skipping more stations and then having the fast tunnel to Gatton.
This could be followed by faster rail projects like the government has been doing on the Gold Coast line, to speed up the line before Rosewood.

Quote from: HTGTickets in other states are pre booked either online, over the phone or at a station. And there are cut off times so you can't book at the last minute. This is their network so that's easy. If you have greyhound then tickets would have to be booked via their existing services. The problem with greyhound and 50 cents is that you'll have people flooding the brisbane-Toowoomba corridor.

Thanks for the response HTG. Something I noted:

Why would an increase in train patronage be considered a success, but one involving a coach (that is faster) be framed as a disaster?

IMHO we should be happy that patronage would increase markedly. An increase in patronage and service quality is what we want. I note in Victoria regional train fares were reduced markedly and now their trains are full. There could be a lot of untapped patronage in this corridor, considering the Victorian experience. 4000 pax per day or about 1 million pax p.a., potentially. That would put patronage on par with High-Frequency BUZ services, some of the busiest bus routes in the Translink network.

I also noted that on this forum over the past few weeks, you mentioned that you would like to see regional bus services improved and not just those within BCC (e.g. Cairns, Townsville, Magnetic Island etc). So now here is an opportunity to get behind that.

Quote from: SilverChasedNo need for 50c greyhounds though -- that makes no sense.

Thanks for your response.

Well, a trip from Gympie North to Coolangatta Beach is currently 50c*, and that's for a 250 km distance trip. Toowoomba is only about 110 km from Brisbane, so less than half this distance.

So I guess that then leads to the question of why then is it sensible for Translink to offer a 250 km trip Gympie-Brisbane-Coolangatta for 50c, but not a 110 km trip to Toowoomba for 50c? Is there something about Toowoomba that means that residents and visitors absolutely must pay $35-$40 to travel there (one way), whereas everywhere else across SEQ can get long-distance travel for 50c? Arguing that there should be this very steep price differential for Toowoomba looks like a case of treating similar cases differently.

Toowoomba is part of SEQ, just like Gympie North and Coolangatta are. There should be an option to travel there from Brisbane at standard public transport fares. And currently there isn't. On reflection, I think the tendency to reinforce the status quo might be a factor here, and the trip Brisbane-Toowoomba can and should be offered at standard Translink fares consistent with all the other Translink services across SEQ.

As the coach services would increase from say 4 services per direction to 18 services per direction per day - a 4.5x increase in capacity - I think patronage increases are likely to be absorbed, and being a coach and not a train, would be faster to scale up by ordering or borrowing new vehicles if rising patronage were encountered. That, and unlike TMR's train proposal, something like this can be trialled for 12 months, further de-risking the concept.



Notes
* Translink website says $1.00 but I think this is a system error.

No issue with it being 50c. The issue would be with subsidising the private company at great expense. A public train line would be cheaper to subsidise. A private train, such as the Airtrain, would be cheaper to subsidise than a frequent Greyhound service, for example. By subsiding these services down to 50c, the money goes in to the void rather than contributing to future, more cost-effective services.

By having the rail go to Gatton in the near term, there is less distance for the Greyhound to cover and hence the cost would naturally reduce and the amount required to subsidise for the journey decreases.

Side note: it would be $1 there as the continuation time limit is exceeded on that journey. For Toowoomba, it would be half the price (50c).

Quote from: SilverChasedThe issue would be with subsidising the private company at great expense. A public train line would be cheaper to subsidise. A private train, such as the Airtrain, would be cheaper to subsidise than a frequent Greyhound service, for example. By subsiding these services down to 50c, the money goes in to the void rather than contributing to future, more cost-effective services.

Thanks for the response, and pointing out the time limit for trips means the trips I mentioned are $1.00.

Well, TMR and TransLink already subsidise private operators that are service partners to Translink- bus, ferry, Airtrain, regional planes in QLD and light rail already at great expense. I believe the subsidy is somewhere at 75% under original fares, and now with 50c fares would be closer to say 95%-99%.

In terms of labour costs also, a coach has 1 staff member. A train would need both a driver and a guard, plus potentially service staff as well depending on whether you wanted a regional style service and refreshments on it, or a standard commuter service.

I acknowledge that members really do want a train, and a rapid one as well. But I think residents and passengers would not be opposed to coach-based improvements in the interim.

Affordable and improved PT service between Brisbane and Toowoomba is something that could be fixed within one term of office, quickly and cheaply by adopting a service-first and minimum-viable product approach. We don't have to wait mid-to long term to achieve it or make it conditional on doing expensive and difficult things.

QuoteThe issue would be with subsidising the private company at great expense. A public train line would be cheaper to subsidise.

Would it?
Train lines normally cost heaps to run....Eg have you seen the subsidy per passenger for traveltrain?

Really depends on what you could get the coach operators to agree to, eg declare it a subsidized route and they get more work in exchange for a fixed subsidy, rather than relying on selling tickets.

Your other issue is how you handle there currently being multiple commercial operators on the route.  Not insurmountable but needs to be dealt with.  Same issue with the ferry from Cleveland over to Minjerribah.

I suppose it mostly comes down to $/passengers and other factors associated with BCR. Not having the numbers, I would have assumed the Greyhound is quite expensive. If it were to be subsidised, a shorter route would make more sense to avoid duplication with the train line.
For the more immediate scenario, at least from Ipswich or Rosewood.

Quote from: JimmyP on October 21, 2024, 07:12:07 AMI could be wrong, but I believe the NSW and Vic buses are ticketed like regional trains vs urban service type ticketing. Not insurmountable, but that would be how they get around having smartcard equipment onboard.

That's true to an extent, although some regional trains/buses in Victoria accept Myki. I don't think regional coaches do, though, the rail limits are probably similar to Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast type distances here.

Toowoomba-Brisbane isn't a regional service in the general sense. It's a different type of transport. A better comparison would be Rockhampton-Gladstone. I'd rather see a focus on upgrading local services in those areas first ie upgrading local Rockhampton services, upgrading local Toowoomba services, upgrading cairns services, upgrading Townsville services etc etc rather than prioritising funding for Toowoomba-Brisbane, Rockhampton-Gladstone, Gympie-Maryborough etc. we can't even get public transport right in major cities where buses have multiple terminus locations (306/322 or 357/358/359) or in places like Strathpine where the peak frequency is 60 minutes and here we are going on about greyhound coaches for 50 cents between Toowoomba and Brisbane.

By flooding the service I meant preventing Toowoomba-Emerald passengers. We had similar problems on the spirit of Capricorn in peak/holidays to the point where it became a 8 car train (3x power pairs, 2 trailers). Short haul passengers were preventing long distance passengers and vice versa.

Subsidies for traveltrain can be a mix/conflicting bag. For example while the inlander is a government service I'm pretty sure it's still on a hook and pull contract with aurizon and we pay a stowing/cleaning fees to ugl as it's kept on private property in Townsville (no QR facilities there anymore). The westy too has higher costs due to crewing rosters. There are ways to eat into these costings but the powers above prefer to keep the status quo. Another example is the soto. By keeping the costings down I mean upgrading facilities and purchasing new rollingstock/equipment. The 90's were pretty much the last hey day for any real rail transport progress and even then works got shafted for political interests. The tilts were to be really overhauled across the state but minerals was the big game and everything got thrown at that instead. There have been attempts to keep it alive such as the Beerburrum-Nambour quad 160kph realignment but that too got shafted pretty good.

Quite frankly any rail service to Toowoomba will run at a heavy loss without substantial investment in heavy passenger rail (this can be EMU/DMUs running Oakey-Brisbane with a transfer hub at Toowoomba along with ncl running such as Maryborough). Any bus service will be too complicated to be a success as you have varying load levels eg Gatton-Toowoomba vs Gaton-Brisbane, all stops vs express, booking cut off times etc. Cost is always going to be the dominant factor.

Quote from: HTGAny bus service will be too complicated to be a success as you have varying load levels eg Gatton-Toowoomba vs Gaton-Brisbane, all stops vs express, booking cut off times etc. Cost is always going to be the dominant factor.

Well, how is this issue dealt with in NSW, VIC, WA and SA?

And you're essentially arguing here that Translink coach service would be so popular/overcrowded between Toowoomba-Brisbane that it shouldn't be provided. It's an odd argument for this forum. Couldn't that be fixed through a booking process reserving a set number of seats for passengers coming from Emerald?

Quote from: HTGStrathpine where the peak frequency is 60 minutes and here we are going on about greyhound coaches for 50 cents between Toowoomba and Brisbane.

Well, Stathpine has a train station with trains every 7.5 minutes in peak, and 30 minutes off peak. Over 100 train services stop at Strathpine station daily, and the fare is 50c. If your local bus isn't frequent, you have the option of driving to the station and catching the train.

Toowoomba also has a train station. It has one train on Tuesday and another on Thursday. The trip takes 3h 50 min on the train and cost $44.10. Bus/coach options - about four per day each way, again looking at $35-$40 each way. If you are driving, you are probably going to be driving all the way to Brisbane.

Places at comparable distances to Toowoomba-Brisbane in SEQ such as Gympie or Coolangatta are served by more frequent regional PT for 50c. So the current setup is plainly inequitable. Strathpine is better served than Toowoomba, a city with a population of 170,000 serviced by 4 coaches each way per day.

All those frequent trains and yet not a single feeder bus in sight. That leads to more people driving which creates more congestion which leads to wild infrastructure ideas from the motor lobby which leads to the media harping on about it which eventually makes it's into an infrastructure possibility and before you know it you have billions being spent on a Gympie road tunnel. Meanwhile we have the 314 and 2 hourly buses servicing the Brisbane area (336/337/358 are some of the 2 hourly bcc routes).

Oh but here's the thing. Trains are also pointless. Just as are buses and coaches. You have just showed your hand at the everybody goes to the city mentality which does not apply here. Chermside is a massive employment hub. So too is the strathpine-Petrie-Anzac Road corridor.

The very same applies to Toowoomba. Not everybody in Toowoomba commutes to Brisbane. I can't recall 100% but it's something around 1 in 15 jobs in Toowoomba are related to the agricultural sector so a lot of people aren't going to be able to use pt. That section of the Warrego is similar to the Gold Coast around Helensvale. You have long distance traffic mixing with short distance traffic which then feeds into the urban sprawl traffic the closer you get to Ipswich. 

Coaches are fine but you need to get to them first and then be able to get home after. Otherwise you apply the park and ride mentality so now we need to occupy more land for parking. Toowoomba is a very different region to Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast etc. The area/Queensland in general is also very different compared to other states which SR has pointed out. Coaches are a viable option due to the proximity of them to each other. If you try to apply that to Toowoomba you just end up shadowing the railway line straight to the west towards Dalby and Oakey. You have Nanango/Kingaroy to the north but other than that you are very limited on establishing a along distance bus network.

As good as it would be to have DMUSs or short haul EMUs running around I don't expect to see it happen. Dalby/Miles-Toowoomba would be good but there just isn't the demand to warrant the infrastructure and rollingstock. And it only becomes worth it if you have the supporting network which we don't have.

If there was to be upgrades for locals wanting to use EMUs or DMUs to travel the best and most likely place to see that happen would be on the NCL. Not Toowoomba. Sorry to disappoint. And as I said the viability of that also comes back to what they are willing to spend. For example DOO can be used on the NCL. It's even got ETCS level 1 operational. I don't see locals happening for the very very long future. They can't even get NGR/QTMP right let alone...

Quote from: HTGThe very same applies to Toowoomba. Not everybody in Toowoomba commutes to Brisbane.

Thanks for the response HTG.

Well, nobody here on this forum has claimed that everybody in Toowoomba goes to Brisbane. Not even close. In my estimation calculation - which is consistent with the estimate of patronage numbers TMR arrived at - a test value of PT=1% was used (regional). It's fair to say that using a 1% value is about as far from 'everybody' (i.e. 100%) one can get.

The TMR study indicates the demand would be about 1 million passenger trips per year with a train (that is 20 mins slower than current coaches). Those numbers would be more than enough IMO to support an upgraded coach service charging standard Translink long-distance PT fares.

1 million trips a year sounds like a load of bs. The Nambour line is still under 500,000 a year. And the summary is very very vague. Misleadingly vague. Doesn't even mention rollingstock.

The alternative for a SEQ to Tooowomba "bus" service is lending/leasing to Bus Queensland (Laidley depot) some of the TMR low-floor buses for a limited number of Rosewood to Toowoomba limited stops services (stopping only at UQ Gatton, Gatton Town Centre and Grantham) perhaps using the current wheel-chair accessible coaches currently used on the Route 539 (Rosewood to Gatton with limited extensions to Helidon). 

The TMR green liveried low-floor buses (originally built for Railbus replacement) leased to Bus Qld could operate the existing 539 as the coaches are moved to operate a hypothetical Rosewood to Toowoomba limited stops TransLink (local bus) service.

Just to mention another coach:
Murray's has 5 daily services costing the same ($35) and taking as long as the greyhounds, but also connecting to Goodna station (which is 27 mins by rail from Roma St or 30 mins by bus).

No discount for hopping on later as the bus comes from the airport and likely won't drop anyone off on the way.

Quote1 million trips a year sounds like a load of bs. The Nambour line is still under 500,000 a year. And the summary is very very vague. Misleadingly vague. Doesn't even mention rollingstock.

I mean its a rubbish line with a long travel time and poor frequency, and the hinterland towns it services have low population. I mean Nambour has 12k people, Landsborough 5k, Beerwah 8k. Im not suprised its under 500k

Meanwhile Toowoomba has 100k, Gatton 8k, Laidley Plainland is another 8k, so its not out of the question you could get 1 mil with a better service.

QuoteAll those frequent trains and yet not a single feeder bus in sight. That leads to more people driving which creates more congestion which leads to wild infrastructure ideas from the motor lobby which leads to the media harping on about it which eventually makes it's into an infrastructure possibility and before you know it you have billions being spent on a Gympie road tunnel. Meanwhile we have the 314 and 2 hourly buses servicing the Brisbane area (336/337/358 are some of the 2 hourly bcc routes).

Understand your issues on the northside but I wish you wouldn't make repetitive posts about the 337 and 314 every time someone talks about something else.
I mean sh%t, my old 467 and 468 combo had similar issues in that the route varied by time of day and the frequency and  directness was poor, but I never once tried to pretend that "its pointless fix anything without first addressing my stupid little local route".

Agree with Gazza on the above. We are getting caught up in details like it's a private operator etc, but the big picture is:

- There is no commuter PT between Brisbane and Toowoomba (PT as defined by being a Translink service charging standard Translink fares)

- Fare wise, it is being treated very differently to other cities and towns at comparable distance to Brisbane (~ 10x the cost)

- Focusing on the rail mode only has meant TMR has not realised there is a solution to this that can fix it right now at a fraction of the cost.

- There is potentially a broader issue where NSW, VIC, WA and SA have developed and mapped regional coach services, QLD haven't.

The passenger rail investigation report cost $15 million to produce. For a similar cost, the actual coach solution could have been funded and trialled for 6 months.

Notes
Toowoomba Passenger Rail ($15 m cost)
https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/projects/097134-17qld-nrp

Quote- Focusing on the rail mode only has meant TMR has not realised there is a solution to this that can fix it right now at a fraction of the cost.

I think thats a bit unfair. The point of the study was to do the due diligence.
There is a major new piece of rail infrastructure between Brisbane and Toowoomba, someone actually needed to do the work saying how could it be utilized? Are ARTC and the feds onboard for making passive provision for future passenger rail?  what would the travel times be etc.
Personally I'm happy someone at least has identified the opportunity.

And hey if it leads people to say "Well, can we have better coaches in the meantime" that great, but talking about coaches doesn't actually answer the question of what a pax service on the Inland Rail corridor would look like.

In other words, running a 6 month trial coach service doesn't actually "save" money because you'd still need to spend money doing a study and voters in Toowoomba wouldn't stop asking the question.

Quote from: GazzaI think thats a bit unfair. The point of the study was to do the due diligence.

That's a reasonable point. If the aim was due diligence then the diligence part would entail looking at not just the rail mode but all viable modes (e.g. coaches as well). Considering coaches in the study would have only entailed an incremental additional cost to the study.

More generally, this sort of tendency to run mode-specific one-horse races in transport evaluations is common. It is part of the current culture. Just like smoking on planes or having trains run with doors that didn't lock while in service was seen as totally acceptable back in the day, doing one-horse race evaluations is seen as totally acceptable, even though the funds involved are both public and substantial. It is a cultural and mind shift that needs to happen.

The Gympie Road tunnel is one such example. Good planning starts with the problem (transport) and then goes about selecting what tool (mode) is right for the job.

Out of curiosity, it would be interesting to see what the current patronage might be:

Toowoomba-Brisbane current patronage estimation
5 Murrays Coaches + 4 Greyhound Coaches = 9 coaches/weekday/direction
x 50 seats each
x 80% load
x 5 weekdays x 52 weeks/year
x 2 directions
---
187,200 trips currently per year at a $35-$40 price point (Ballpark Estimate)
---

Here are some reasons to think this existing figure could be increased:

- Lowering the price to standard Translink fare (currently 50c) will increase patronage (a 98.5% cost reduction). We know from VIC that lowering fares for regional services generates a medium to strong patronage response.
- Single website with single co-ordinated timetable (e.g. regular hourly departures)
- One ticket for all services (don't have to choose between existing 2 operators)
- Additional say 5-6 services per direction to extend the span of service
- Potential removal of the booking requirement
- Ability to transfer to other Translink services without additional fare

Bringing existing non-PT services between Brisbane and Toowoomba into the Translink network and charging Translink fares will cost money. That is acknowledged. However, the average subsidy for long distance rail passengers was about $1,000 per passenger (2021 dollars).

Subsidy for a Toowoomba-Brisbane service would higher than say for transporting passengers to Gympie or Coolangatta, but it would also be lower (about 25x lower) than what is spent for long-distance regional rail passengers (about $40 per Toowoomba-Brisbane passenger). And less subsidy would be required if we eventually go back to pre-50c fares.

Notes
Regional Rail Services - QLD
Question on Notice  No. 1216  Asked on 13 October 2021 
URL: https://documents.parliament.qld.gov.au/tableoffice/questionsanswers/2021/1216-2021.pdf

Ballpark Estimate of Operational Funding Requirement
Carrying say 200,000 passengers p.a. at Translink fares
Ticket Revenue 200,000 x 0.50c = $100,000 revenue p.a.
Subsidy 200,000 x $40/pax = $8,000,000 p.a. (based on a $40 unsubsidised ticket)
Net: $7.9 million p.a. annual running cost

Additional 5 services per day at $1,600 per service [given 50 pax/coach x 0.8 load x $40/pax gives $1,600 per coach trip].

Yearly figure for the boost: 5 services x 5 weekdays x 52 weeks = $2,080,000 required for top-up services

=> Implies an operational funding requirement of about ~ $10 million ballpark p.a. Perhaps a bit more if you want the same or similar service level on weekends as well.

There would probably be one-off costs to make the transition, but for say ~ $10 million p.a. this could be delivered. Costs could be split between TMR and Toowoomba Regional Council, and potentially also other councils in the area.

Councils might be inclined not to pay for ongoing operating costs, so a different split of costs could be imagined where councils fund the one-off purchase of coaches required (assuming new coaches are bought) and TMR pays the operating costs. This would be analogous to how some SEQ councils have contributed capital funding or land for light rail or heavy rail, but not ongoing operating expenses.

 

QuoteMore generally, this sort of tendency to run mode-specific one-horse races in transport evaluations is common.

In this case, the infrastructure exists and or is going to exist, and there is a ticking clock to make sure passive provision is made.

Regardless of what mode is finally picked or used in the interim, buses don't actually influence the decision making or learnings from the study.

If it were a study entitled "B2T public transport improvement study" then yes i would expect multiple modes.

But if its a study looking at influencing a rail project that is already happening, you dont dilute the scope.

Quote from: GazzaIn this case, the infrastructure exists and or is going to exist, and there is a ticking clock to make sure passive provision is made.

Regardless of what mode is finally picked or used in the interim, buses don't actually influence the decision making or learnings from the study.

If it were a study entitled "B2T public transport improvement study" then yes i would expect multiple modes.

But if its a study looking at influencing a rail project that is already happening, you dont dilute the scope.

I take your point, but this is thinking within an infrastructure-based framework. An alternative perspective is to consider who the intended beneficiaries are (the residents of Toowoomba) and use that to guide our study and to find out what would be best for serving them across different time horizons.

In terms of influencing decision-making, omissions do have an impact. Decision makers need information to make decisions, proposals need visibility to be noticed and acted on by TMR and TRC and members of Parliament or councillors, and gain traction with the public. By not having the coach option assessed, they might conclude that their only option for their community is a very long wait. But it isn't their only option.

Quote from: Gazza on October 22, 2024, 08:59:14 AM

Quote1 million trips a year sounds like a load of bs. The Nambour line is still under 500,000 a year. And the summary is very very vague. Misleadingly vague. Doesn't even mention rollingstock.

I mean its a rubbish line with a long travel time and poor frequency, and the hinterland towns it services have low population. I mean Nambour has 12k people, Landsborough 5k, Beerwah 8k. Im not suprised its under 500k

Meanwhile Toowoomba has 100k, Gatton 8k, Laidley Plainland is another 8k, so its not out of the question you could get 1 mil with a better service.

QuoteAll those frequent trains and yet not a single feeder bus in sight. That leads to more people driving which creates more congestion which leads to wild infrastructure ideas from the motor lobby which leads to the media harping on about it which eventually makes it's into an infrastructure possibility and before you know it you have billions being spent on a Gympie road tunnel. Meanwhile we have the 314 and 2 hourly buses servicing the Brisbane area (336/337/358 are some of the 2 hourly bcc routes).

Understand your issues on the northside but I wish you wouldn't make repetitive posts about the 337 and 314 every time someone talks about something else.
I mean sh%t, my old 467 and 468 combo had similar issues in that the route varied by time of day and the frequency and  directness was poor, but I never once tried to pretend that "its pointless fix anything without first addressing my stupid little local route".

I'll keep harping on about the 314/336/337 as they are routes that still exist in the brisbane area with a frequency of 120 min plus. Its fine discussing ideas about what tmr should and shouldn't do but if you can't get the basics right in brisbane/seq then what hope do you have with a Toowoomba connection. In the case of the 336/337 they only run between 8am-4pm and has less services than what's already provided Toowoomba-Brisbane.

If you want to be realistic and actually put cards on the table it's a report to make them look like they are doing something when in reality they aren't doing anything. No real new information was in it and key parts were glossed over. It was even interesting to see the subtle wording TMR said around services. Remember it's ARTC territory and the same passenger priority that members here are used to doesn't apply. "dependant on freight paths". TMR has also omitted rollingstock and the facilities. And that's mostly because they don't know what inland rail is actually building.

As has been mentioned you can't compare other states to Queensland. There aren't many large inland towns to warrant a coach service that other states do. For example where would you run the coach network in Queensland? Toowoomba-??? It's just not there.

You are the one that keeps bringing up private operators metro. Greyhound and Murray's. They have their own systems, networks and operations in place. This is why gocards wont work and online bookings/phone bookings would be required (same applies to nsw if you want to compare it to somewhere else). If you want to include gocard usage you then have to acquire a fleet. TMR doesn't own coaches. It only has a low floor fleet. This increases your cost. Even for a trial.

Quote from: #Metro on October 22, 2024, 10:19:07 AMOut of curiosity, it would be interesting to see what the current patronage might be:

Toowoomba-Brisbane current patronage estimation
5 Murrays Coaches + 4 Greyhound Coaches = 9 coaches/weekday/direction
x 50 seats each
x 80% load
x 5 weekdays x 52 weeks/year
x 2 directions
---
187,200 trips currently per year at a $35-$40 price point (Ballpark Estimate)
---

Here are some reasons to think this existing figure could be increased:

- Lowering the price to standard Translink fare (currently 50c) will increase patronage (a 98.5% cost reduction). We know from VIC that lowering fares for regional services generates a medium to strong patronage response.
- Single website with single co-ordinated timetable (e.g. regular hourly departures)
- One ticket for all services (don't have to choose between existing 2 operators)
- Additional say 5-6 services per direction to extend the span of service
- Potential removal of the booking requirement
- Ability to transfer to other Translink services without additional fare

Bringing existing non-PT services between Brisbane and Toowoomba into the Translink network and charging Translink fares will cost money. That is acknowledged. However, the average subsidy for long distance rail passengers was about $1,000 per passenger (2021 dollars).

Subsidy for a Toowoomba-Brisbane service would higher than say for transporting passengers to Gympie or Coolangatta, but it would also be lower (about 25x lower) than what is spent for long-distance regional rail passengers (about $40 per Toowoomba-Brisbane passenger). And less subsidy would be required if we eventually go back to pre-50c fares.

As pointed out previously both private operators also have Coach services that continue beyond Tooowoomba, plus some services that continue beyond Toowoomba into regional Queensland have a different subsidy arrangement with TMR/Queensland Government.

So there are complications with separating the "through" passengers and isolating the Tooowoomba - inbetween - Brisbane passengers if the two private coach companies were to be brought into the Translink contracting scheme for a busy, yet smaller part of a route which also have a number of through services to Western Queensland and Northern NSW.

^No different to Traveltrain vs Citytrain on the SC line. You can separate pax, or require pre booking on the long distance ones.

Quote from: HTGIts fine discussing ideas about what tmr should and shouldn't do but if you can't get the basics right in brisbane/seq then what hope do you have with a Toowoomba connection.

Toowoomba is part of SEQ and the SEQ Council of Mayors. Its not a case of Toowoomba vs SEQ LGAs. See https://seqmayors.qld.gov.au/about-us/councils

Quote from: ArnzSo there are complications with separating the "through" passengers and isolating the Tooowoomba - inbetween - Brisbane passengers if the two private coach companies were to be brought into the Translink contracting scheme for a busy, yet smaller part of a route which also have a number of through services to Western Queensland and Northern NSW.

This speaks to fare product design and timetabling co-ordination.

How could we solve this? Coach passengers already pay distance-based fares on coaches, so charging a different fare for a service that continues outside the Translink zone should be possible. It might require booking system tweaks.

Similarly, you could imagine reserving sections of the coach for bookings of a certain type or class. You might set aside x amount of seats for long-distance passengers, and another set of seats for short-distance passengers. This can be enforced by the booking system (preferably this system is set up on the TL website to be seamless so they don't have to switch websites).

Greyhound also already allows hop-on and hop-off on its buses through a pass system https://www.greyhound.com.au/whimit-travel-passes?

QuoteThe National Whimit Pass offers travel without limit, and is determined by days, not distance or destination. National Whimit pass holders can travel in any direction to absolutely any of our 180+ stops around Australia, for as many consecutive days as purchased.

Next Steps

- Design and fund a sort of trial: say 6 or 12 months, with an option to stop the trial early after 3 months if a minimum passenger uptake is not there. Maybe offer travel in the first week free.

- Market it on the Translink website and integrate the services into the TL journey planner during the trial period so that the services appear during journey planner searches. Booking should probably also happen on the TL website so the customer experience is seamless.

- Charge Translink standard fares: During the trial period, fares to Toowoomba on one or both of the operators would be reduced to whatever the standard Translink fare is (currently 50c).

- To book or not to book?: The booking system could be kept during the trial to ensure that seats are available for passengers continuing outside of the Translink SEQ zone, and that the correct long-distance fare is charged for those passengers. However, ensure an option for buying or booking on the same day or last minute (to be determined, space permitting).

There would be some tweaks to timetabling for through services, which is a complicating factor, but that would have to be worked out to see what is possible. A decision would have to be made on whether there would be a service boost or just keep existing number of services and just lower the fare to get the necessary data on patronage uplift.

Quote from: #Metro on October 22, 2024, 11:03:45 AM

Quote from: GazzaIn this case, the infrastructure exists and or is going to exist, and there is a ticking clock to make sure passive provision is made.

Regardless of what mode is finally picked or used in the interim, buses don't actually influence the decision making or learnings from the study.

If it were a study entitled "B2T public transport improvement study" then yes i would expect multiple modes.

But if its a study looking at influencing a rail project that is already happening, you dont dilute the scope.

I take your point, but this is thinking within an infrastructure-based framework. An alternative perspective is to consider who the intended beneficiaries are (the residents of Toowoomba) and use that to guide our study and to find out what would be best for serving them across different time horizons.

In terms of influencing decision-making, omissions do have an impact. Decision makers need information to make decisions, proposals need visibility to be noticed and acted on by TMR and TRC and members of Parliament or councillors, and gain traction with the public. By not having the coach option assessed, they might conclude that their only option for their community is a very long wait. But it isn't their only option.

Again, this wasn't a 'PT between Brisbane and Toowoomba' type study, this was a 'Inland Rail is to be built between these two places - What extra would need to be done to allow passenger services on this infrastructure and is it worth it' study. There is no point studying coaches to determine what extra provisions for Inland Rail need to be considered for passenger services.

Metro, who cares if Toowoomba is part of the council of mayors or not. Has nothing to do with it. I was pointing out simple issues within a well used populous area that refuses to get addressed (inconsistent timetables, inconsistent routes/terminus, poor frequencies across the Brisbane/seq bus/rail network) meanwhile you are going backwards and forwards confusing yourself about coaches be it state owned or greyhound/murrays because other states have a coach service and referring to a purposely misleading summary report to avoid critiquing from those that don't know anything about railway operations.

Metro, in regards to what ARNZ said it's not about distance. It's about short haul passengers blocking long distance passengers. If someone books the Toowoomba-Brisbane leg that prevents someone from booking a Brisbane-Emerald leg. And vice versa. If you have a lot of people booking Emerald-Brisbane then Toowoomba passengers can not board. I mentioned that exact same problem with the ICE trains and they ended up extending them to 8 car trains from the regular 6 car trains. The only reasonable way around it is to open ticketing 48 hours before the service runs. That way long distance passengers can have a seat reserved and then it's a free for all for the short haul services. This was done on the bundy ett with Brisbane-Gympie costing the same as a paper ticket and all bookings was done via the traveltrain website/selected stations. From memory bookings were opened from 48 hours before and closed 18 hours before the service ran.

To be honest, if an improved cheaper coach is going to generate extra demand, then just run an hourly service to Toowoomba only, and then all other services from out west can be set down only.

Dont allow Toowoomba pax to board the long distance ones, a bit like how suburban pax aren't allowed to board Vline at outer stations like Sunbury or Packenham.

From my perspective I tend to agree with Metro that there is no real operational reason why subsidised coaches cannot be put on.  I tend to differ in that I don't think it is good use of limited taxpayer funding to set this up compared to various other options like:

- Better bus services within and around Toowoomba
- Better public transport service in other parts of the State
- Better long distance services that are not part of the TransLink SEQ fare system but which pass through Toowoomba

Even between the Gold and Sunshine Coasts and Brisbane, the majority of people on the network are not travelling over intercity distances on a regular basis - and where they are, they are generally travelling tidally into the Brisbane CBD and CBD frame area or to St Lucia in the morning, then back again in the afternoon.  You are going to struggle with getting anybody out of a car in a scenario like this unless the offering is much faster than driving, and a coach doing highway speeds and which has to stop to pick up and set down or which will get stuck in traffic is not going to achieve this.  Nor will running trains on the current alignment which takes nearly 4 hours to get from Toowoomba to Roma Street.  If we can get the Helidon to Brisbane time down to below 2 hours,

The one option I tend to like would involve running more conventional low entry buses (or wheelchair accessible coaches) between Toowoomba and outlying locations.  That would include improving the existing service to places like Highfields / Crows Nest and Westbrook, and adding services to places like Oakey, Kingsthorpe and Meringandan to the north, Pittsworth and Clifton to the south/west, and Withcott, Helidon, Grantham and Gatton to the east.  The 539 can then terminate at Gatton permanently.  I also think that increasingly the 539 is not going to cut it for the Rosewood to Gatton stretch, there may need to be a second route that runs Gatton to Rosewood through the UQ campus, Plainland, Hatton Vale, Minden and Marburg, with the 539 staying to the south via Laidley.

Another option I wouldn't entirely discount is perhaps just going "stuff it" and stringing up some wires between Rosewood and Helidon.  I expect you would have issues with the tunnels between Grandchester and Laidley (and that section would be slow).  Could be solved by having a small bimode fleet capable of running off wire through the Little Liverpool Range. It is only about 20 minutes from the middle of Toowoomba to Helidon station by bus up and down the GDR.  The Westlander is timetabled for 60-70 minutes from Rosewood to Helidon and that is for DELs, not modern EMUs that would have better acceleration and braking, and top line speed on the straights.  Maybe we just have a permanent electric or bi-mode Lockyer service stopping Helidon, Gatton, Laidley, Rosewood, Ipswich, Darra, Indooroopilly, Milton and all to Bowen Hills, and basically revive the old coordinated railmotor / bus service but on a much better basis.

If we can get a Brisbane to Helidon time by rail down to something like 100-110 minutes, plus a big park'n'ride (or 5 minutes to get onto a bus, plus 20 minutes for the bus to get to Toowoomba), and run trains more often than the 10 or so Greyhound/Murrays trips a day, that is going to be a lot more capacious and beneficial than just buses, albeit it would require electrifying a good chunk more railway and buying a small run of stock for just this sector of the network.

Quote from: HTGIf you have a lot of people booking Emerald-Brisbane then Toowoomba passengers can not board. I mentioned that exact same problem with the ICE trains and they ended up extending them to 8 car trains from the regular 6 car trains.

The only reasonable way around it is to open ticketing 48 hours before the service runs. That way long distance passengers can have a seat reserved and then it's a free for all for the short haul services. This was done on the bundy ett with Brisbane-Gympie costing the same as a paper ticket and all bookings was done via the traveltrain website/selected stations. From memory bookings were opened from 48 hours before and closed 18 hours before the service ran.

It's good to see a suggestion on how to work around the issue. There is a second way to manage this potential issue, already mentioned:

Quote from: #MetroSimilarly, you could imagine reserving sections of the coach for bookings of a certain type or class. You might set aside x amount of seats for long-distance passengers, and another set of seats for short-distance passengers. This can be enforced by the booking system (preferably this system is set up on the TL website to be seamless so they don't have to switch websites).

Quote from: SurfRailI tend to differ in that I don't think it is good use of limited taxpayer funding to set this up compared to various other options like:

- Better bus services within and around Toowoomba
- Better public transport service in other parts of the State
- Better long distance services that are not part of the TransLink SEQ fare system but which pass through Toowoomba

Is an improved passenger rail service to Toowoomba more of a priority than the three things mentioned above or less of a priority? And what specific measures does the third point involve carrying out?

^ I would say less of a priority.  Most people living in any city are not travelling over extended distances on a daily basis, so would generally benefit from a public transport system that helps get people around locally.  A railway to Brisbane does nothing for local travel.

On the Gold Coast (increasingly) and the Sunshine Coast (to a much lesser extent) the rail network has a local function because of the pattern of settlement.  It wouldn't for Toowoomba or the Lockyer, there is no equivalent of a Nambour or Robina or Coomera or even a Nerang out there in population, activity or potential patronage terms.  I expect every station would primarily be a park'n'ride except for people in the walk-up catchment.

Far cheaper and more beneficial to run useful bus services in Toowoomba, or where other parts of the state have rubbish levels of service worse than Toowoomba's.  To the extent there needs to be some more capacity for growth in service between Toowoomba and Brisbane, the existing commercial operators would be able to respond to that and price it more competitively between themselves.

Quote from: #Metro on October 22, 2024, 10:19:07 AMSubsidy for a Toowoomba-Brisbane service would higher than say for transporting passengers to Gympie or Coolangatta, but it would also be lower (about 25x lower) than what is spent for long-distance regional rail passengers (about $40 per Toowoomba-Brisbane passenger). And less subsidy would be required if we eventually go back to pre-50c fares.

These $35 coaches currently come from Brisbane Airport. The Murray ones take an hour to go from the Airport to Goodna. That's almost half the journey!

Surely they could run cheaper and more frequent, in your analysis, if they were to run from Goodna/Ipswich (future: Gatton?) or somewhere else that connects rail to highway currently.
Since, in your analysis, they'd be on the translink system, the users could take the airtrain from the airport. It would be just as fast as the bus for that section (minus transfer times).

Now, say you ditch the coaches and use Translink buses for this last hour of the run. How much more would that cost? I don't know the answer.

Then eventually as inland rail and alignments happen, long-term, the bus distance shortens.

Thank you for sharing your perspective, SurfRail.

I agree that enhancing local public transport services in Toowoomba is important for meeting residents' daily needs. However, improving regional connectivity between Toowoomba and Brisbane shouldn't be overlooked because of that. It's not a good reason for leaving Toowoomba disconnected from the rest of the SEQ PT network. There is also a regional transport demand that the report puts at 4,000 pax/daily.

At the very least the fares should come down to standard Translink fares, bringing it into line with the rest of SEQ.

Cities and towns at similar or greater distances from Brisbane—like the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast—have access to regular public transport connecting them to the state capital. Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast residents don't have to pay $35-$40 to get to Brisbane, they pay 50c.

And consider - If a train were extended to Toowoomba, as per the TMR plan, it would likely charge the standard Translink passenger fare. So why not do the same with the coach? Or is there a suggestion that the commuter train that TMR and the Australian Government studied should charge $40 per passenger (one way) for the ticket and operate on a purely commercial and unsubsidised basis when it eventually becomes operational?

Queensland is a very decentralised state. It subsidises regional train services to a much greater degree and for fewer annual passengers. Transport is transport, whether it is delivered on steel wheels or rubber tyres.

Quote from: #Metro on October 22, 2024, 18:02:35 PMI agree that enhancing local public transport services in Toowoomba is important for meeting residents' daily needs.

At least Toowoomba has on-demand already.
https://translink.widen.net/s/lf58mphm59/230925-odt-toowoomba-route-map

So maybe can't get to Brisbane for 50c, but they can go to the local shops. Mission complete.

Edit: Here is a facetious $1 route:
On-demand to Toowoomba Scenic Road Stop, Rangeville (15 mins?)
Walk to Helidon 3 hr 30 mins (usually a 15 min drive)
539 Helidon to Rosewood 1 hr 15 mins
Train from Rosewood to city 1 hr 10 mins, which probably doesn't connect from the bus.
Only 6 hours or so

It is very unlikely that there will be an improved rail connection between Toowoomba <> Brisbane anytime soon.

I think the best that could happen for now is extend the route 539 bus to Toowoomba.  This would provide local public transport and connect into the Toowoomba Translink network.

Leave the coach companies as they are. I often see the Murrays Coach when it calls into Goodna.  Usually a few passengers getting on or off depending on whether outbound or inbound.

Quote from: #MetroIf a train were extended to Toowoomba, as per the TMR plan, it would likely charge the standard Translink passenger fare. So why not do the same with the coach? Or is there a suggestion that the commuter train that TMR and the Australian Government studied should charge $40 per passenger (one way) for the ticket and operate on a purely commercial and unsubsidised basis when it eventually becomes operational?

^ It would be good if members could reflect on these points.

Public transport can be delivered to the residents of Toowoomba on either steel wheels or rubber tyres.

A train would probably charge the standard Translink fare and thus taking patronage away from the existing coach operators due to the subsidy it would receive and impacting their business.

If we are prepared to subsidise a train, then we should also be open to subsidising a bus/coach IMO. Transport is the product, modes are a means of delivering it.

The current arrangements treat Toowoomba differently from the rest of SEQ. This is despite it being part of SEQ and closer to Brisbane than other parts of the Translink network that enjoy standard Translink fares (e.g. Gympie). Would Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast residents appreciate their fares rising to $25 for consistency or to free up investment elsewhere in the network? Probably not, so why accept that same endpoint here? Is it perhaps a desire to keep the status quo (even though it is not good) or perhaps fear of involving a 'private' operator (something that Translink already does extensively)? Or is it because it is a bus?

Quote from: OzbobI think the best that could happen for now is extend the route 539 bus to Toowoomba.  This would provide local public transport and connect into the Toowoomba Translink network.

I think this is a good idea. The route however takes over one hour to travel between Helidon and Rosewood. If it were extended to Toowoomba, it would not be viable for most passengers to use it to perform regional trips into Brisbane.

^

Quote... I think this is a good idea. The route however takes over one hour to travel between Helidon and Rosewood. If it were extended to Toowoomba, it would not be viable for most passengers to use it to perform regional trips into Brisbane. ...

It is not for regional trips into Brisbane, it is for local transport Rosewood < activity centres> Toowoomba, something that is needed.  The coaches are for the regional trips.

Quote from: ozbob on October 23, 2024, 10:10:33 AM^

Quote... I think this is a good idea. The route however takes over one hour to travel between Helidon and Rosewood. If it were extended to Toowoomba, it would not be viable for most passengers to use it to perform regional trips into Brisbane. ...

It is not for regional trips into Brisbane, it is for local transport Rosewood < activity centres> Toowoomba, something that is needed.  The coaches are for the regional trips.

Agreed local service is needed. For many people living at the western end of the Lockyer Valley, Toowoomba is their hub for various services (I'm thinking especially health services like specialists etc.) and I think it's appropriate for local public transport to be available to meet that need.

Quote from: ozbob on October 23, 2024, 10:10:33 AM^

Quote... I think this is a good idea. The route however takes over one hour to travel between Helidon and Rosewood. If it were extended to Toowoomba, it would not be viable for most passengers to use it to perform regional trips into Brisbane. ...

It is not for regional trips into Brisbane, it is for local transport Rosewood < activity centres> Toowoomba, something that is needed.  The coaches are for the regional trips.

Bus Queensland IIRC uses Coaches with facitlies for Wheelchair access on the 539.  As I've posted previously, transferring those existing 539 coaches on a Rosewood to Toowoomba limited stops (Let's call the Rosewood to Toowoomba service the "538") stopping only at UQ Gatton, Gatton and Grantham on the way to Toowoomba may be an alternate option, servicing the larger towns on the direct route in (except the diversion into UQ Gatton) yet leave the smaller towns out of the way to the existing 539.

The existing 539 could be used by leased TMR/TransLink low-floor buses (originally built for Rail replacement work), and some rationalisation of the 539 service to provide a more clockface timetable with some short running during School pick-up hours for the local towns (including Laidley) between Gatton and Rosewood.