RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Quote from: Habitant on June 11, 2024, 06:06:43 AMAllocating $7 Billion for a toll tunnel in 2024...

😡😡😡

300 ish million just for planning across three years. That's about the same size as the annual PT farebox!

This is beyond frustrating. At least when Airport Link was built they put some of the Northern Busway in as a part of the project. This time they're talking about "investigating options for active and public transport improvements on the surface". What's the bet we end up with the two hours a day bus lanes going the last couple of kilometres to Chermside (like they were always supposed to) and we're told what a great public transport project this is?

A budget of $7 billion probably enough to complete the Northern Busway, especially given a busway tunnel would be half the size.

I appreciate the private financing side to the project, but plenty of transport projects are financed like that, such as GCLRT.

What exactly does planning include? If it's just design work and not acquisitions, TBM purchasing or tendering costs then I've got to get in on this scam.

Quote from: #Metro on June 11, 2024, 09:56:34 AMA budget of $7 billion probably enough to complete the Northern Busway, especially given a busway tunnel would be half the size.

I appreciate the private financing side to the project, but plenty of transport projects are financed like that, such as GCLRT.

Only partly though.
Eg GCLRT was mostly state, some federal and council, and then the consortium put in their own money

OTOH many of the road tunnel projects have been mostly done with private financing and investors.

Quote from: OzGamer on June 11, 2024, 09:23:27 AMThis is beyond frustrating. At least when Airport Link was built they put some of the Northern Busway in as a part of the project. This time they're talking about "investigating options for active and public transport improvements on the surface".

This would have to mean Brisbane Metro BRT, and opening conversations about missing/discontinuous sections in the Northern Busway.

Quote from: #Metro on June 11, 2024, 12:33:08 PM

Quote from: OzGamer on June 11, 2024, 09:23:27 AMThis is beyond frustrating. At least when Airport Link was built they put some of the Northern Busway in as a part of the project. This time they're talking about "investigating options for active and public transport improvements on the surface".

This would have to mean Brisbane Metro BRT, and opening conversations about missing/discontinuous sections in the Northern Busway.

I wouldn't be so confident. Name one time since the Campbell Newman era when we've genuine separated bus infrastructure put in as part of a road project. Kingsford Smith Drive and Lytton Road went to three lanes without so much as a T3 lane.

Quote from: #Metro on June 11, 2024, 12:33:08 PM

Quote from: OzGamer on June 11, 2024, 09:23:27 AMThis is beyond frustrating. At least when Airport Link was built they put some of the Northern Busway in as a part of the project. This time they're talking about "investigating options for active and public transport improvements on the surface".

This would have to mean Brisbane Metro BRT, and opening conversations about missing/discontinuous sections in the Northern Busway.

I sincerely hope so!
If this tunnel project comes with a simultaneous Northern Busway completion to Chermside that allows the Metro  expansion, then I could get on board... as long as I get a deviation to TPCH hehe

Quote from: Habitant on June 11, 2024, 16:06:03 PM

Quote from: #Metro on June 11, 2024, 12:33:08 PM

Quote from: OzGamer on June 11, 2024, 09:23:27 AMThis is beyond frustrating. At least when Airport Link was built they put some of the Northern Busway in as a part of the project. This time they're talking about "investigating options for active and public transport improvements on the surface".

This would have to mean Brisbane Metro BRT, and opening conversations about missing/discontinuous sections in the Northern Busway.

I sincerely hope so!
If this tunnel project comes with a simultaneous Northern Busway completion to Chermside that allows the Metro  expansion, then I could get on board... as long as I get a deviation to TPCH hehe

"Tell em their dreaming"

Looks like it might not be self-supporting?

QLD eyes existing tolls to help fund new Gympie Road bypass tunnel

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/qld-eyes-existing-tolls-to-help-fund-new-gympie-road-bypass-tunnel-20240612-p5jl4g.html

Jeeeezzzzzzzuuuuusssss

Brisbanetimes --> Qld eyes existing tolls to help fund new Gympie Road bypass tunnel $

QuoteThe news

Queensland is looking into how it could use the expected future $34 billion value of south-east toll roads to borrow the money needed to fund a new proposed tunnel on Brisbane's north.

Planning work on the Gympie Road Bypass Tunnel, pitched by the state's Queensland Investment Corporation with an estimated cost of above $7 billion, will push on with $318 million in the budget.

As part of this, Tuesday's budget hinted at parallel QIC work to probe "opportunities to optimise the commercial value of tolling rights" when deals with operator Transurban end from 2051. ...

Tell me Transurban are in the pockets of the Government without saying Transurban are in the pockets of the Government.

Cost revision apparently...

Toll tunnel for $10b. An absolutely astronomical figure to pay for just 4.5 train's worth of additional peak hour capacity.

At that price, the gov't might pay money into it, as well as private.

Document reveals Brisbane toll tunnel could cost $10b.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/document-reveals-brisbane-toll-tunnel-could-cost-10-billion-to-build-20240613-p5jllp.html

Quote from: #Metro on June 13, 2024, 21:20:30 PMCost revision apparently...

Toll tunnel for $10b. An absolutely astronomical figure to pay for just 4.5 train's worth of additional peak hour capacity.

At that price, the gov't might pay money into it, as well as private.

Document reveals Brisbane toll tunnel could cost $10b.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/document-reveals-brisbane-toll-tunnel-could-cost-10-billion-to-build-20240613-p5jllp.html

Puts it in the same ballpark as WestConnex, another road project designed to keep a city in traffic so Transurban can harvest the population for road tolls.

Sent to all outlets:

Re: Call for Cancellation of Gympie Road Toll Tunnel Project

14th June 2024

Good Morning,

Interesting if not alarming article in the Brisbanetimes yesterday evening.

Brisbanetimes --> Document reveals Brisbane toll tunnel could cost $10 billion to build
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/document-reveals-brisbane-toll-tunnel-could-cost-10-billion-to-build-20240613-p5jllp.html

" ...  The Queensland government has spent $35 million investigating a new Brisbane traffic tunnel, and this week allocated $318 million more, despite being unable to demonstrate that it would deliver a net economic benefit. ... "

This Gympie Road Toll Tunnel is just more of the same transport congestion inducing failure now the hallmark of SEQ.  Time to turn the fail paradigm with better public and active transport!

Farcical!

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Quote from: ozbob on June 11, 2024, 05:04:16 AMSent to all outlets:

Call for Cancellation of Gympie Road Toll Tunnel Project

11th June 2024

RAIL Back On Track (https://backontrack.org) calls for the next Queensland Government to independently review and cancel the Gympie Road Toll Tunnel project.

"The Gympie Road Toll Tunnel is the wrong mode for a Growing South East Queensland." RAIL Back On Track spokesperson Robert Dow said.

The first tactic in pushing a road project is to run what we call a 'one horse race' where only the feasibility of a road option is studied, and competing public transport options are excluded. A proper study would allow competing public transport options like a railway or a busway to be considered as well.

The second tactic in pushing a road project is to quote a daily traffic figure and not the 1-hour peak direction capacity of the tunnel. The effect of this is to conceal the tunnel's low peak hour capacity by omission. And its poor suitability for meeting the transport task compared against other transport modes such as busways or railways.

We request North Brisbane Infrastructure (NBI) and the Queensland Government to publicly release the 1-hour peak traffic figures from their traffic modelling this week to the media. Please confirm for us the tunnel's low peak hour and peak direction capacity.

If 40,000 vehicles use the Gympie Road Toll Tunnel per day, then the 1-hour peak direction capacity would only be about say 10% of this value, or 4,000 vehicles in the 1-hour peak direction.

This capacity increase is similar to adding just over four trains to the train network.

In our opinion, nobody in the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads would think spending $7 billion to add just four trains worth of peak hour capacity to the train network was good value, but apparently it makes sense when a road project does it?

Transport Minister Bart Mellish is quoted as saying that "traffic on Gympie Road was projected to increase from 80,000 vehicles a day to 111,000 a day by 2046." (1).

The problem for the minister selling this project is that the South East Busway carries about 150,000 passengers per day (equal to about 125,000 cars per day). This figure exceeds the entire quoted 2046 daily traffic volume for Gympie Road, with capacity to spare.

We think re-purposing the toll tunnel as an exclusive busway instead would see a peak hour capacity four times greater than using the tunnel for cars, and only require a tunnel half the size.

Can the Transport Minister Bart Mellish please explain, if the Queensland Government is so deeply concerned about northside traffic congestion, why is the lowest peak hour capacity option (compared against busways and railways) being chosen here?

The only thing this project is going to bust is the Queensland Government's credibility on being able to put together a sensible transport plan for South East Queensland.

We call for an independent review of the project against public transport options, and for the next Queensland Government to terminate the project.

References:

(1) Budget green light for Gympie Road bypass tunnel to move to next stage
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/budget-green-light-for-gympie-road-bypass-tunnel-to-move-to-next-stage-20240610-p5jkln.html

"Preliminary research by NBI has the support of Queensland Treasury. It estimates 40,000 vehicles would use the toll tunnel every day and there is a "strong rationale" for such a project in a growing city like Brisbane."

(2) South East Busway Extension - Rochedale to Springwood
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/~/media/Projects/S/South%20east%20busway%20extension/Pdf_sebx_project_guide_intro_overview.pdf

"The South East Busway between Brisbane City and Eight Mile Plains is a success story – it carries more than 150 000 passengers per day or 35 million trips per year. Sections of the busway carry 18,000 passengers per hour. To carry the same number of people by car, nine lanes would have to be built."

(3) Why the Gympie Road Tunnel Does Not Make Basic Sense!
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15505.0

(4) A Gympie Road Toll Tunnel will monetise congestion, not bust it
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15218.msg274205#msg274205

(5) Northern Busway - Archived Full Documents
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=14786.msg261505#msg261505

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

 

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1801284695285813738

GYMPIE ROAD BYPASS
INVESTMENT PROPOSAL SUMMARY

"State Budget update

As part of the State Budget handed down on June 11, 2024, the Queensland Government has committed $335 million over the next three years for further work to be undertaken on the Gympie Road Bypass and surface transformation.

The commitment includes $318 million over three years for Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC), through NBI, to progress pre-construction works supported by Queensland Treasury and the Department of Main Roads.

An additional $17 million over two years has been provided for the Department of Transport and Main Roads to prepare a detailed business case for the Gympie Road Surface Corridor Transformation Project.

For a summary of the Investment Proposal provided to the Queensland Government, please click on the link below: "

> https://hdp-au-prod-app-tct-gympieroad-files.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/8217/1825/1985/Gympie_Road_Bypass_Investment_Proposal_Summary_-_June_2024.pdf

on web page https://www.northbrisbaneinfrastructure.com.au

The projected cost for yet another underutilised toll tunnel is depressing.

But this line is promising:
"An additional $17 million over two years has been provided for the Department of Transport and Main Roads to prepare a detailed business case for the Gympie Road Surface Corridor Transformation Project."

Northern Busway extension maybe!?
Or am I being a naive sweet summer child?

^ 'Public and active transport wash'  analogous to 'green wash' ... 

The financial analysis is absolutely damning for what is supposed to be a commercial project. BCR = 0.2.

Quote from: Habitant on June 14, 2024, 02:20:23 AMThe projected cost for yet another underutilised toll tunnel is depressing.

But this line is promising:
"An additional $17 million over two years has been provided for the Department of Transport and Main Roads to prepare a detailed business case for the Gympie Road Surface Corridor Transformation Project."

Northern Busway extension maybe!?
Or am I being a naive sweet summer child

Hey there youngling!!!  

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1801373611456139501

So many problems and omissions with this report. Will do a deep dive later.

Drawing parallels with the Direct Sunshine Coast Line is not a good comparison.

The DSCRL's low BCR is likely due to high per-km costs of building rail in QLD, not lack of benefits. WA builds rail much more cheaply, for example, and so has no problem achieving good BCRs above 1 even at the more stringent 7% discount rate.

Worse, the DSCRL is not and has never been intended to be a commercial project with a commercial return. It is not going to be onsold to a toll road operator.

The Gympie Road tunnel is. The valuation perspective thus needs to be different.

This was the lead for the article on Brisbanetimes

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1801645781361037646

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1801653408518259051

Quote from: ozbob on June 15, 2024, 01:57:40 AMThis was the lead for the article on Brisbanetimes

I think the recent tunnel debacles in Sydney/Melbourne have lead to strong healthy skepticism towards future tunnel projects.

Quote from: Habitant on June 15, 2024, 03:07:14 AM

Quote from: ozbob on June 15, 2024, 01:57:40 AMThis was the lead for the article on Brisbanetimes

I think the recent tunnel debacles in Sydney/Melbourne have lead to strong healthy skepticism towards future tunnel projects.

No people can google unlike our Politicians!!!

I am all for the Gympie road tunnel as this would be an opportunity to advocate for improved public transport options and infrastructure alongside.

TMR may have plans already to deliver something together with the Gympie road tunnel. Like the busway up to Bracken Ridge, as well as tunneling inbound from the transit way at Kedron Brook to connect with the current busway tunnel.

All options should be on the table when it comes to delivery of public transport options alongside the Gympie Road Tunnel.

^ Do you just not believe induced demand is a thing?  Serious question.

Quote from: verbatim9 on June 15, 2024, 10:43:17 AMI am all for the Gympie road tunnel as this would be an opportunity to advocate for improved public transport options and infrastructure alongside.

TMR may have plans already to deliver something together with the Gympie road tunnel. Like the busway up to Bracken Ridge, as well as tunneling inbound from the transit way at Kedron Brook to connect with the current busway tunnel.

All options should be on the table when it comes to delivery of public transport options alongside the Gympie Road Tunnel.

You are entitled to your opinion.  The Gympie Road Toll Tunnel is a farce!

If anything it should be a twin heavy rail tunnel.

NBI et al are trying to make it will be so wonderful for PT and AT.  It won't, we know that, it is all just bullsh%t.

Quote from: SurfRail on June 15, 2024, 10:52:57 AM^ Do you just not believe induced demand is a thing?  Serious question.

Quote from: ozbob on June 15, 2024, 11:01:10 AM

Quote from: verbatim9 on June 15, 2024, 10:43:17 AMI am all for the Gympie road tunnel as this would be an opportunity to advocate for improved public transport options and infrastructure alongside.

TMR may have plans already to deliver something together with the Gympie road tunnel. Like the busway up to Bracken Ridge, as well as tunneling inbound from the transit way at Kedron Brook to connect with the current busway tunnel.

All options should be on the table when it comes to delivery of public transport options alongside the Gympie Road Tunnel.

You are entitled to your opinion.  The Gympie Road Toll Tunnel is a farce!

If anything it should be a twin heavy rail tunnel.

NBI et al are trying to make it will be so wonderful for PT and AT.  It won't, we know that, it is all just bullsh%t.

There will never be a public transport utopian vision for SEQ, simply because of urban sprawl. The car will always have a major part to play getting around Brisbane but there is nothing stopping people advocating for active and public transport alongside major projects as they arise.

In addition both LNP and Labor support this project so the only way forward is to advocate for PT and active transport projects alongside.

Yes, rail twin tunnels would be nice but can't see this happening alongside this project, yet one can always live in hope.

^ You are just continuing to support the present car centric paradigm.

Now is the time to change it, not to further encourage more car dependency and even more congestion.

If this project were at all serious about improving public and active transport along Gympie Rd then it would be included in the project scope, not just added as a stated benefit for potential future projects. As it stands, we are paying up to $10bn for a road tunnel, nothing more.

I can see twin metro (a real one)  happening INSTEAD of this project

Assuming we could get a Gympie Rd rail tunnel underway, how would it work? Where would it connect with the existing rail network (both south and north connection points)? Where would stations be?

The obvious one I can see is the tunnel starting to dive just north of Albion. Problem is, that would require lots of land resumptions=$$$$.

Then stations at Kedron (near Castle St), Chermside (Westfield), Aspley (Albany Creek Rd), Carseldine West (Beams Rd), then rejoining the NCL south of Bald Hills.

But that may be a terrible idea, and I'm open to suggestions.

Quote from: verbatim9 on June 15, 2024, 11:11:06 AM

Quote from: SurfRail on June 15, 2024, 10:52:57 AM^ Do you just not believe induced demand is a thing?  Serious question.

Quote from: ozbob on June 15, 2024, 11:01:10 AM

Quote from: verbatim9 on June 15, 2024, 10:43:17 AMI am all for the Gympie road tunnel as this would be an opportunity to advocate for improved public transport options and infrastructure alongside.

TMR may have plans already to deliver something together with the Gympie road tunnel. Like the busway up to Bracken Ridge, as well as tunneling inbound from the transit way at Kedron Brook to connect with the current busway tunnel.

All options should be on the table when it comes to delivery of public transport options alongside the Gympie Road Tunnel.

You are entitled to your opinion.  The Gympie Road Toll Tunnel is a farce!

If anything it should be a twin heavy rail tunnel.

NBI et al are trying to make it will be so wonderful for PT and AT.  It won't, we know that, it is all just bullsh%t.

There will never be a public transport utopian vision for SEQ, simply because of urban sprawl. The car will always have a major part to play getting around Brisbane but there is nothing stopping people advocating for active and public transport alongside major projects as they arise.

In addition both LNP and Labor support this project so the only way forward is to advocate for PT and active transport projects alongside.

Yes, rail twin tunnels would be nice but can't see this happening alongside this project, yet one can always live in hope.

This is at odds to your previous statement s where you were saying that we could get 30% mode share of we just built a busway under St. Lucia and rail to wellcamp airport

After AirportLink, it took about 10 years for the Northern Transitway to be started. How long will this new tunnel delay the Metro extensions?

Quote from: achiruel on June 15, 2024, 16:05:31 PMAssuming we could get a Gympie Rd rail tunnel underway, how would it work? Where would it connect with the existing rail network (both south and north connection points)? Where would stations be?

The obvious one I can see is the tunnel starting to dive just north of Albion. Problem is, that would require lots of land resumptions=$$$$.

Then stations at Kedron (near Castle St), Chermside (Westfield), Aspley (Albany Creek Rd), Carseldine West (Beams Rd), then rejoining the NCL south of Bald Hills.

But that may be a terrible idea, and I'm open to suggestions.

The North West Rail Line does not appear to go along Gympie Road. From the report, they are going for option 4a, which both the rail and motorway tunnels will parallel each other underneath the reserved North West Transit Corridor. Both options have the rail tunnel starting after the Albion station and surfacing at Linkford Road to connect to Strathpine station. Only two new rail stations at Everton Park and Bridgeman Downs are planned. The only place a tunnel entrance could be built is along the curve section of Hudson Road, which is currently occupied by the Albion traction power depot yard.

All of this doesn't matter as the BCC does not build rail infrastructure nor do they care. Their endgame is a tunnelled motorway that is tolled. Any bus or rail improvements are up to the State, however if you mention "Metro" does it magically become a BCC project instead?

The BCC has mostly ignored the findings from the Business Case where the majority of people wanted public transport solution(s). You don't get a rail connection until we build the motorway first. The justification for waiting until after 2031 is rubbish. The people want better rail/bus connections and services instead.

Interesting findings from the Business Case:

 "A single project will not address NWTN problems, so a multi-modal program approach is necessary to transform the network"

"An unsustainable and excessive reliance on private vehicles in Brisbane's north-west is due to poor public and active transport access, comfort and connectivity." 

"A prevalent theme from community feedback is a strong expectation of a shift towards public transport. Consistently throughout the engagement, improved public transport is as seen as non-negotiable."

"The community supports new public transport infrastructure including new rail and busways because they respond to a need for mass transit solutions."

"There is a strong demand for buses to connect to rail and for active transport to support access to the public transport network."

64% surveyed supported strong support for new rail – "Rail also responds to the gap in existing rail service options within Brisbane's north-west. The Lack of rail infrastructure through large parts of the north-west Brisbane and congestion on the existing Ferny Grove Line, results in a strong support for new rail through the NWTC."

"Stakeholders support reforms of the public transport networks, particularly buses and upgrades to existing infrastructure and services."

"A recurring theme in the busway feedback is overwhelming aspiration for prioritisation of buses either dedicated bus only lanes or prioritisation in traffic lanes."

"In its current state, Gympie Road is perceived by the community as not functioning efficiently, effectively, or safely; it performs poorly on safety criteria and is frequently congested."

"Reducing road capacity on Gympie Road by creating space for a BRT supports the community's requirements to force a reduction in private vehicle usage to reduce congestion."

A multi-modal solution is expected – "During consultation, a multi-modal corridor in the NWTC featuring rail, road, and active transport in a single alignment received the highest level of engagement and is strongly supported. Further options assessments confirm that a multi-modal corridor option is not a viable proposition."

Brisbane summed up – "A CBD-focussed radial public transport network with dedicated infrastructure limited by rail, little bus priority across the network, poor east-west connectivity and limited access to fast, frequent, and reliable public transport."


With all of these listed, why do you still want a tunneled motorway?

This one is an example of a car-rapid-transit brain:

"Without the delivery of the motorway, a BRT in its current form proposed is not feasible due to impact of road capacity. Without a motorway, the BRT would require widening of the Gympie Rd corridor with significant impacts and infrastructure costs."