RAIL - Back On Track Forum

No end in sight to traffic chaos jamming Brisbane's north west | 7NEWS

Turns out there is a 'Secret Plan' 

The little-known plan to fix congestion in Brisbane's busy north
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/the-little-known-plan-to-fix-congestion-in-brisbane-s-busy-north-20230314-p5cs2s.html

QuoteFrustrated commuters will soon hear what the Queensland government intends to do about congestion in Brisbane's north – and what road, rail and bus connections are on the agenda.

Brisbane Times can confirm the Queensland government has been modelling traffic and public transport usage in the corridor between Stafford and the Moreton Bay region for more than two years.

QuoteThe council also highlighted the restrictions, arguing an underground North West Motorway could carry 109,900 vehicles a day if free, or 61,100 vehicles if tolled, by 2031.

A toll road would move a very small volume of people, as people would actively avoid the toll. Just as they do for Clem 7, AirporLink and Legacy Way. On the other hand, a toll road represents the least damage to PT for this reason.

Alternatively, a taxpayer-funded road (let's not call it 'free' because it isn't) would apparently attract 109,900 vehicles per day.

If you do a breakdown that is implying that on average 1167 vehicles/hr per direction per lane will use the road outside of a 2-hour peak time.

If a general road lane capacity is 1800 vehicles/hour, then the traffic modelling that BCC carried out suggests that the road will be at ~ 64% capacity on average outside of peak hour.

^ just another ' sequencing plan ' I have my doubts it will lead to anything ...

' The North Brisbane Moreton Bay Transport Sequencing Plan '

Brisbanetimes --> The little-known plan to fix congestion in Brisbane's busy north

QuoteFrustrated commuters will soon hear what the Queensland government intends to do about congestion in Brisbane's north – and what road, rail and bus connections are on the agenda.

Brisbane Times can confirm the Queensland government has been modelling traffic and public transport usage in the corridor between Stafford and the Moreton Bay region for more than two years.

The project, funded as part of a $20 million agreement with the Federal Government, is set to be completed within months.

"The North Brisbane Moreton Bay Transport Sequencing Plan will cover Brisbane's northern suburbs, north of Stafford and the Moreton Bay council area, excluding Bribie Island," a Department of Transport and Main Roads spokesman confirmed.

"The ongoing study will assess future travel demand, the role of key transport corridors, and identify potential new connections and networks requiring upgrade.

"The Sequencing Plan will consider all land-based transport modes including rail." .... "

How many more plans do we need? 

Also where is the community consultation?  DTMR and  ' consultants ' deciding without proper community engagement. Lack of transparency.  At least there was an element of community consultation with the BCC proposal, even if they ignored essentially in the end.

We are basically rooted!!

Should we just make bets that it will propose yet even more Car Rapid Transport projects? 

Quote from: #Metro on March 16, 2023, 23:17:14 PMShould we just make bets that it will propose yet even more Car Rapid Transport projects? 

Based on what Mark Bailey has been saying, I would guess there's at least some rail component to it.

Also isnt the community engagement done after the initial draft? Im sure there will be community engangement on the draft report.

 

There is no consultation as to what the options / scheduling should be.  They determine that and then conduct a
' consultation ' on their predetermined options / scheduling.

I think we can forget about NWTC, at least on the surface, apart from some active transport paths.

Get Your Snake Oil.  Congestion Busting Roads For Everyone.  Get Your Snake Oil

Quote from: #Metro on March 16, 2023, 21:21:30 PM

QuoteThe council also highlighted the restrictions, arguing an underground North West Motorway could carry 109,900 vehicles a day if free, or 61,100 vehicles if tolled, by 2031.

This explains where that 110k/day figure quoted in that C-M op-ed from a few days ago arose.

Yeah this is total predict-and-provide.

So breaking down the 109,900 vehicles/day figure down.

- 54,000 vehicles per direction per day
- subtract 3600 vehicles to remove peak hour (2 hours)
- gives 51,350 vehicles over the remaining 22 hours in the day

Average road use is then:
51,350 vehicles / 22 hours = 2334 vehicles/hr in one direction

Assume 2 lanes paired for each direction, so this breaks down further into 1167 vehicles/lane/hour

We know maximum lane capacity is 1800 vehicles/hr so the average utilisation in the off peak is then:

Utilisation (av.) = 1167/1800 = 64%

Given that PT supply is rubbish in MBRC I think this figure would be a realistic outcome.

Quote from: #Metro on March 17, 2023, 09:33:44 AMSo breaking down the 109,900 vehicles/day figure down.

- 54,000 vehicles per direction per day
- subtract 3600 vehicles to remove peak hour (2 hours)
- gives 51,350 vehicles over the remaining 22 hours in the day

Average road use is then:
51,350 vehicles / 22 hours = 2334 vehicles/hr in one direction

Assume 2 lanes paired for each direction, so this breaks down further into 1167 vehicles/lane/hour

We know maximum lane capacity is 1800 vehicles/hr so the average utilisation in the off peak is then:

Utilisation (av.) = 1167/1800 = 64%

Given that PT supply is rubbish in MBRC I think this figure would be a realistic outcome.

Self-fulfilling modelling BS at it best.  And our mode share is an international embarrassment.

QuoteSelf-fulfilling modelling BS at it best.  And our mode share is an international embarrassment.

If you think the value for the off-peak road capacity is wrong, then suggest a different value with a justification.

Sent to all outlets:

NWTC Corridor Planning - Same Old Approach Guarantees More Congestion

17th March 2023

Everyday the traffic reports call out that our roads are congested earlier and longer each day and it seems more often than not on the weekends too. A single crash now throws the whole road network into meltdown.

Why is it not getting better? Surely all the projects expanding roads should be making a difference. Why aren't they?

The answer lies in how the Brisbane City Council, other SEQ councils, the Queensland Government and Infrastructure Australia are planning our transport.  The recent arguing and political mud-slinging over the NWTC is actually hiding the fact that the planning itself will guarantee congestion gets worse not better.

The planning for the North West Transport Corridor (NWTC) whether by Brisbane City Council or the Queensland State Government and even the review by Infrastructure Australia, is based on the Predict and Provide (P&P) method for determining the infrastructure needed. Unfortunately, P&P has been debunked by many in the planning industry.

It is why roads are always planned and widened first with active/public transport delivered years, if not decades later ..."when the model says there is enough demand".  The end result is those annoying traffic reports saying is all gone 'belly up'.

Even in today's reported North Brisbane Moreton Bay Transport Sequencing Plan the Transport Minister said "The ongoing study will assess future travel demand, the role of key transport corridors, and identify potential new connections and networks requiring upgrade" (1). More Predict and Provide modelling.

Institute for Civil Engineering Fellow Jonathan Spruce outlined the following key messages in his address to the UK Transport Select Committee (2):

"The 'predict and provide' approach to transport that we have adopted previously does not always address the root causes of congestion. It induces traffic, and thereby increased carbon emissions from transport, resulting in it being the largest emitting sector of greenhouse gases in the UK".

Integrated Transport Planning (ITP), a multi-disciplinary team that researches, designs, implements, monitors and evaluates sustainable transport initiatives also noted (3):

Something needs to change. Transport and land-use planners have been creating the same car-dominated developments for way too long. ITP's approach to 'vision led transport planning' (often referred to as 'Decide and Provide' or 'Vision and Validate') allows us to shift away from this status quo, and create places for people, built around a healthy, safe, prosperous and carbon neutral vision for our new communities.

Until our governments and their transport planning bodies abandon the old debunked Predict and Provide modelling  and adopt the Vision and Validate approach they will guarantee SEQ becomes even more congested.

We need to stop doing the same old thing hoping for a different outcome.

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org


1. The little-known plan to fix congestion in Brisbane's busy north
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/the-little-known-plan-to-fix-congestion-in-brisbane-s-busy-north-20230314-p5cs2s.html

2. 'Vision and validate': a third way in designing the roads of the future?
https://www.ice.org.uk/news-and-insight/the-infrastructure-blog/june-2021/vision-and-validate-smart-motorways

3. ITP News & Views
https://www.itpworld.net/news-and-views/2022/vision-and-validate-pg

Facebook ...

https://twitter.com/railbotforum/status/1636723490677219329

 

War of words erupts over growing traffic concerns in Brisbane's North West | 7NEWS



 

This reminds me of Legacy Way and 2000 daily express buses. PT is just being used as a trojan to push through this motorway fixation.

The justification for the entire motorway is that it is required to free up space on Gympie Road for median BRT. This is of course, not right.

A median BRT would absorb all of the motorists displaced PLUS still have spare capacity for PT passengers. In any case, a median BRT is not required if the Northern Busway is simply extended and the gaps are filled in. The money earmarked for this Gympie Road median BRT is probably enough to pay for the Priority A busway extension to Chermside and maybe even fill in the gaps.

'Multi-Modal' means motorway plus something else for BCC. They don't seem to be able to conceive a 'Multi-Modal' option that won't involve a motorway.

Doing a "study" NOW....Bailey and his tens of thousands of boffins...what have you been doing? 

Nodding Donkies for sure!

Schrinner has sent out a mailer in Aspley or perhaps across a wider area. The QR code on the mailer takes people to this website - https://www.adrianschrinner.com.au/lets-cut-congestion/

I responded to it with this:

Cut congestion by building a new rail line. We know that motorways only make congestion worse and a high capacity rail line can address congestion locally and city wide.

Bushland must be protected with tunnelling under Chermside hills reserve.

Please rule out ANY new motorway for this corridor.

Quote from: AJ Transport on April 02, 2023, 21:44:20 PMSchrinner has sent out a mailer in Aspley or perhaps across a wider area. The QR code on the mailer takes people to this website - https://www.adrianschrinner.com.au/lets-cut-congestion/

I responded to it with this:

Cut congestion by building a new rail line. We know that motorways only make congestion worse and a high capacity rail line can address congestion locally and city wide.

Bushland must be protected with tunnelling under Chermside hills reserve.

Please rule out ANY new motorway for this corridor.

I added my own response. Absolutely predatory behavior auto filling a response box when you are trying to get opinions.

Just be aware that politicians have an exemption in the Privacy Act and can match that with records from the Electoral Commission to build a profile of you.

They might be gearing up for the Lord Mayoralty campaign sooner than we think.

Quote from: #Metro on April 02, 2023, 22:14:07 PMJust be aware that politicians have an exemption in the Privacy Act and can match that with records from the Electoral Commission to build a profile of you.

They might be gearing up for the Lord Mayoralty campaign sooner than we think.

Eh what are they gonna do. Send me more pamphlets to try and win me over lollll

Sent to all outlets:

RAIL Back On Track Slams BCC NWTC Motorway Proposal as 'High Cost - Low Capacity'

3rd April 2023

RAIL Back On Track (http://backontrack.org) has slammed proposals for a North West Motorway as 'High Cost, Low Capacity'.

In our opinion, the latest tactic to push a motorway down the public's throat is employing a vision of Brisbane Metro Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) along Gympie Road. We are told that to build this BRT, space needs to be 'freed up' for road users by building a motorway on the NWTC. RAIL Back On Track rejects the packaging of public transport with a motorway in this way.

We do not support BCC's Gympie Road BRT proposal. It is a sub-optimal proposal. Motorway funds and the $1.3 billion indicated for BRT on Gympie Road are better used completing the Northern Busway between (a) RBWH and Truro Street, and (b) between Kedron, Prince Charles Hospital, and Chermside using tunnels.

Completion of the Northern Busway is superior to Gympie Road BRT because:
* The Northern Busway fully separates buses from road traffic (Priority A Corridor); Gympie Road BRT would not because it would share intersections and signals with road traffic (Priority B Corridor).
* The Northern Busway would include a stop at Prince Charles Hospital (PCH); Gympie Road BRT would not.
* The Northern Busway would have at least 2x the capacity of BRT on Gympie Road (12,000 persons/hr/direction for Northern Busway vs 4500 persons/hr/direction for BRT on Gympie Road)

RAIL Back On Track also objects to the low capacity the motorway would have. In the peak direction and during a 1-hour peak, we think two motorway lanes will together have a maximum capacity of 3600 vehicles/hour towards the CBD. This gives a peak hour motorway capacity of just 4320 persons/hour/direction.

For context, this is a lower capacity than:
* Council's Gympie Road BRT bus running every two minutes (4500 persons/hr/direction)
* The SE Busway (12,000 - 18,000 persons/hr/direction)
* A rail line with a service every 10 minutes in peak hour (10,000 persons/hr/direction).

Can the Lord Mayor and Brisbane City Council explain - if they are so concerned about traffic congestion - why are they promoting a motorway that represents the lowest peak-hour capacity option?

Once again, the results of BCC's own study shows that residents do NOT want a motorway in/on/under/above/beside the NWTC!




Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org


References:

Estimated Motorway Capacity Calculation
3600 seconds/hour divided by 2 second car frequency = 1800 vehicles/lane
1800 vehicles/lane x 2 lanes towards CBD = 3600 vehicles/hr/direction
Adjust for 1.2 persons/vehicle x 3600 vehicles/hr/direction = 4320 people/hr/direction

Conclusion: The motorway when fully saturated with traffic during a 1-hour peak has a theoretical maximum line capacity of 4320 people/hr/direction.

Gympie Road BRT Capacity Calculation
60 minutes/hour divided by 2 minute BRT frequency = 30 vehicles/hr
30 vehicles/hr x 150 passengers/vehicle = 4500 people/hr/direction

North West Transport Network Strategic Assessment – Key Findings
https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020-11/20201130%20-%20North%20West%20Transport%20Network%20Strategic%20Assessment%20Key%20Findings%20Report.pdf

NWTN Business Case
https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2023-03/20230314-NWTN-business-case.pdf

Northern Busway - Archived Full Documents
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=14786.msg261505#msg261505

Northern Busway Extension (Kedron to Bracken Ridge)
https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15104.0

Facebook ...

https://twitter.com/railbotforum/status/1642585855230619650

Good work Bob!

While both the QLD government and Brisbane council have failed on most metrics of public transport planning and management the current actions by Schrinner are especially egregious.

I think this is part of the coming council campaign but it's also building a plank of their campaign for the state election because Aspley and Pine Rivers could both view this as relevant to them and are 2 of the most winnable Northside seats for the LNP.

If we don't fight this hard now the LNP might make a motorway part of their government plan.

https://twitter.com/brisbanetimes/status/1646386477247639553

" ... Bailey said he would refer the letter to the Office of the Independent Assessor because it was misleading - he has rejected claims he wants to build a rail line through bushland - and a misuse of council resources. ... "

Quote from: ozbob on April 13, 2023, 15:48:59 PMhttps://twitter.com/brisbanetimes/status/1646386477247639553

" ... Bailey said he would refer the letter to the Office of the Independent Assessor because it was misleading - he has rejected claims he wants to build a rail line through bushland - and a misuse of council resources. ... "

Good. Schrinner is completely out of line here.

The end result of all of this is even worse relations between the State and BCC I guess.

We are years overdue for a proper public transport authority, the council is far too big for its boots and it is counterproductive for the rest of SEQ and Queensland in terms of public transport outcomes.

I think this sums it up nicely from an individual perspective.

https://twitter.com/hangingshoes/status/1646389120447709185

Quote from: ozbob on April 13, 2023, 23:52:13 PMThe end result of all of this is even worse relations between the State and BCC I guess.

And this time it's almost completely motivated by BCC. Maybe this will be the wake up call for the State they need to strip BCC of it's public transport planning and create a proper authority. We  can only hope.

Quote from: RowBro on April 14, 2023, 08:03:15 AM

Quote from: ozbob on April 13, 2023, 23:52:13 PMThe end result of all of this is even worse relations between the State and BCC I guess.

And this time it's almost completely motivated by BCC. Maybe this will be the wake up call for the State they need to strip BCC of it's public transport planning and create a proper authority. We  can only hope.

Not unless they change legislation back to pre Newman.

What exactly did they change?

Translink went from being a statutory authority to being under TMR

Oh that bit! Thought he might have changed to City of Brisbane Act.  What is it about BCC that makes it different from other Councils? Just size or does it have provisions in its Act that allows it to be so draconian?

Discussion on Gympie Road Tunnel --> https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15218.0

This thread temporarily locked.

Queensland Parliament E-Petition

https://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/Work-of-the-Assembly/Petitions/Petition-Details?id=4014

DEGAZETTING OF THE NORTH WEST TRANSPORT CORRIDOR

TO: The Honourable the Speaker and Members of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
Queensland Residents draws to the attention of the House the fact that a preserved transport corridor between Gympie Road, Carseldine, and Stafford Road, Everton Park, has been gazetted by the State for 40 years, yet no project has ever been planned.

The communities around the northern end of the corridor have seen significant housing and population growth in recent years, yet lack a community centre, public library or schools in their area, causing significant disadvantage;

And, the Minister for Transport and local MP, Hon Bart Mellish, has expressed a desire to see this land used for the benefit of, and in consultation with, the local community, rather than used for transport infrastructure, including in a social media comment on the 20th of November last;

And, the provision of walkable community amenities aligns with the sustainability and equity goals of the ShapingSEQ 2023 regional plan, while the provision of commuter road and rail projects does not.

Your petitioners, therefore, request the House to; do all in their power to degazette the North West Transport Corridor as soon as possible, and then;

In the first instance, transfer control of such land as may be appropriate for the construction of schools to the Department of Education;

And, in the second instance, transfer the remaining land to the Brisbane City Council, that they may provide a Library and Community Centre in the vicinity of Albany Creek Road, and improve and maintain the remainder of the corridor as parkland, wildlife habitat, and active transport links.

^

Response > https://documents.parliament.qld.gov.au/tp/2024/5724T770-3FFF.pdf

... I refer to petition 4014-24 tabled with the Legislative Assembly on 16 April 2024 about degazetting
of the North West Transport Corridor (NWTC).

The Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) has an essential role in connecting
Queensland and its people both now, and into the future, including through identifying future
transport corridors so they are available when required.

The Queensland Government has identified the NWTC as a future transport corridor since the
1980s, extending from Everton Park to Carseldine in northern Brisbane. While the Queensland
Government owns some of the properties along the corridor, it is not currently gazetted under
legislation and there is no approved planning, nor funding to deliver transport infrastructure in the
corridor. The Queensland Government currently has no plans to dispose or transfer any of the
properties it owns.  ...