RAIL - Back On Track Forum

I would refer to Perth. Plenty of use.

The benefits of the project are influenced by the patronage, which depends on the operations not the infrastructure.

Gold Coast line patronage is sitting around 5 million/year, but the comparable line in Perth pre-COVID19 was doing 20 million/year.

Project will generate more benefits if Gold Coast trains ran every 15 minutes both directions off peak.

Traffic induction applies to all modes, roads and PT.

Quote from: #Metro on December 02, 2022, 07:46:27 AMI would refer to Perth. Plenty of use.

The benefits of the project are influenced by the patronage, which depends on the operations not the infrastructure.

Gold Coast line patronage is sitting around 5 million/year, but the comparable line in Perth pre-COVID19 was doing 20 million/year.

Project will generate more benefits if Gold Coast trains ran every 15 minutes both directions off peak.

Yes, we know that.

Patronage growth will occur with SEQ Rail Connect and the planned increase in frequencies.

Quote from: #Metro on December 02, 2022, 07:46:27 AMI would refer to Perth. Plenty of use.

The benefits of the project are influenced by the patronage, which depends on the operations not the infrastructure.

Gold Coast line patronage is sitting around 5 million/year, but the comparable line in Perth pre-COVID19 was doing 20 million/year.

Project will generate more benefits if Gold Coast trains ran every 15 minutes both directions off peak.

Traffic induction applies to all modes, roads and PT.

Most of the patronage on the comparable line in Perth of course is at stations Cockburn Central and north, so a reasonable comparison would include Beenleigh line patronage.

I suspect the Gold Coast line would actually be moving more people over proportionately longer distances than the Mandurah line, just not doing anywhere near as well in the Beenleigh to Brisbane stretch since Mandurah was purpose built as a proper mass transit system with feeder services and the Beenleigh line was built for farming.

" ... built for farming ... " quite so ...

For context, some of the pre-covid numbers (March 2019 monthly total boardings) are:

* Gold Coast: 242k total, 106k weekday AM peak
* Beenleigh: 265k total, 129k weekday AM peak
* Cleveland: 284k total, 164k weekday AM peak
* South Brisbane to Park Road (not included above): 308k total, 17k weekday AM peak (& 146k weekday PM peak)

For the GC/BL/CL segments above, about 51% of boardings were AM peak, 22% weekday, 13% PM peak, 11% weekend and 2% weeknights. Obviously the inner city stations have more boardings in PM peak.

(All of the Beenleigh, Loganlea and Altandi station patronage is allocated to the Beenleigh line above, but at least several thousand of the all-times total should be GC line instead as it's those 3 stations to GC destinations.)

Takeway: The Beenleigh line is actually getting outperformed by the Cleveland line, though Cleveland does have far less bus competition.

For a different comparison, Petrie-Caboolture is the northern zone-3 equivalent, and it does 141k total with 95k (weekday) AM peak. Trinder Park to Beenleigh does 105k total with 51k in AM peak.

From an earlier post in this thread https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?msg=188626

15-minute off peak both directions still not possible after CRR. Will require more tracks around Altandi.

I think this is a major limitation.

According to the RBOT Patronage thread another 5 million, though these figures include shared stations such as South Brisbane and South Bank. The metric will change after CRR opens, those stations will be attributed to the Cleveland line from CRR opening forwards.

So that would be 10 million total, still ~ half of what Mandurah line pulled pre-COVID19.

There is still another project to go to get the full benefits of CRR.

Quote from: #Metro on December 02, 2022, 09:06:15 AM15-minute off peak both directions still not possible after CRR

That actually raises a question: is 15-min off-peak frequency possible on the Redcliffe line? It's in a very comparable situation to the Beenleigh line with the 3 tracks from Petrie to Northgate.

Quote from: aldonius on December 02, 2022, 09:37:31 AM

Quote from: #Metro on December 02, 2022, 09:06:15 AM15-minute off peak both directions still not possible after CRR

That actually raises a question: is 15-min off-peak frequency possible on the Redcliffe line? It's in a very comparable situation to the Beenleigh line with the 3 tracks from Petrie to Northgate.

It should be possible, howevever it may restrict the Caboolture/Nambour line to every 30 mins off-peak, ofc running express full-time, when you take into consideration the freights and long distance traffic north of Petrie (and the current dual tracks between Petrie and Beerburrum). 

However when the Beerburrum-Beerwah duplication is done, basically ALL daytime and early evening existing Caboolture terminators should be extended to Beerwah (Half-hourly to Beerwah all day until early evening (with every 2nd train to Nambour), hourly to Nambour only after 7:30pm).  Any Caboolture terminators/originators left after the Beerburrum-Beerwah duplication will basically be peak hours (Caboolture short runners), early morning and late evenings to utilise the Caboolture and/or Elimbah yards.

A post-2025 'Direct Sunshine Coast Line'  timeline would simply allow the Beerwah terminators to be simply extended to Caloundra (or north), depending on what gets built, plus the evening trains that would've terminated at Caboolture in a post-Beerwah duplication would also be extended to the Direct SCL, further reducing Caboolture's importance as a terminating station. 
The Woombye yards would be used for trains based for the Beerwah-Nambour/Gympie shuttles in a post-Direct SCL world

Quote from: aldonius on December 02, 2022, 09:37:31 AM

Quote from: #Metro on December 02, 2022, 09:06:15 AM15-minute off peak both directions still not possible after CRR

That actually raises a question: is 15-min off-peak frequency possible on the Redcliffe line? It's in a very comparable situation to the Beenleigh line with the 3 tracks from Petrie to Northgate.

Yes. Paths and the current timetable are already reserved for it between Petrie-Northgate. Freight won't have issues either. The network was supposed to move to 2tph Caboolture/4tph MBRL as part of the Translink network review and NGR contract but both went tits up. Issues arise if you boost Caboolture frequency but nothing some additional crossovers can't fix.

I also think Cleveland Line off-peak is going to be a big problem (this has been raised before).

Currently, in the off-peak in the inner section in from Park Road it is:

- 2 trains/hr Gold Coast
- 4 trains/hr Beenleigh (two are short workings)
- 4 trains/hr Cleveland (two are short workings)
===
10 trains/hr or a train every 6 minutes or so
===

After GC and Beenleigh trains go into the tunnel, all that is left is 4 trains/hour from the Cleveland Line. That's pretty bad. 

There is an argument that passengers will just shift to Brisbane Metro which parallels that corridor. But the main drawcard for passengers is service frequency, and the busway is already very frequent between South Brisbane and Park Road due to the Route 66 bus coming every 5-10 minutes already.

So, the passengers expected to shift are probably already shifted. They aren't going to shift much more.

Maybe you would add another 2 services/hour to the Cleveland line as far as Cannon Hill and turn back. That would give a 10 minute frequency. But can the Cleveland Line even handle trains every 10 minutes in both directions? 

Or save the money and terminate at Park Road? (Cheaper but still not great)

I strongly expect there will be extras in the off-peak, even if they are just from Park Road to Bowen Hills.

The SEQ Rail Connect map (document page 4) pretty clearly shows an infill service between Park Road and Bowen Hills. The data I presented above also shows almost 40k monthly net boardings in AM peak at Park Road for Cleveland Line services.

(Having said that the breakdowns do show some weird things, like Almost Nobody catching a train between the western lines and South Bank / South Bris which is... weird and incorrect. I'm still not super sure what's going on there.)

I have had some discussions over the years about the RPL timetable etc.  It is my understanding that if there is a 4/4 off peak pattern for Caboolture/RPL services, using two tracks (third track will be needed for freight etc.) then the timetable will need to be rewritten to ensure the headway at Northgate is minimum.  So, a Caboolture express needs to depart a couple of minutes ahead of the RPL service,  to give enough clear run before it catches up with the previous RPL service before route divergence.  All doable, but will need a rewrite is the advice to me.

Is there any indication of when the additional 2 trains/hr would be added to the RPL? 2025 perhaps?

This off-peak frequency boost is needed to make northside bus connections to rail easy. It will make reworking northside buses easier.

When connecting rail services are more frequent, the wait time experienced by a passenger missing their connection reduces. This reduces the bus-rail transfer penalty.