RAIL - Back On Track Forum

The Chronicle---> Toowoomba Wellcamp Airport a port for new low-cost airline Bonza, will fly to Whitsundays, Townsville and Melbourne

QuoteToowoomba residents will soon have the choice to fly to Melbourne, Townsville and the Whitsundays for cheap, after low-cost airline Bonza announced Wellcamp Airport as one of its new ports.

The newly-launched carrier will run eight new flights out of Toowoomba every week as part of its inaugural route.

It is a coup for Wellcamp owner Wagner Corporation, as the airport looks to establish itself as a domestic passenger port alongside its airfreight potential.

Wagner Corp chairman John Wagner said the announcement would expose Toowoomba as a tourism destination to millions more people.

Good outcome for WTB. Now for Translink to start planning and and extend a bus service to Wellcamp to service the airport properly.

^ At a grand total of 8 return flights a week, don't count on it.  Even the meagre other flights offered by QantasLink or Rex combined with these aren't going to involve a regular service of any kind.  For the minuscule number of people who want to get to and from the urban part of Toowoomba who aren't driving, it would be considerably more convenient for them to rely on cabs or ridesharing.

While there is ride share and taxis, there is still a need for a regular PT service for workers and people on a strict budget. People travelling on a budget airline usually want to keep to a strict budget. Extending a nearby service to service the Wellcamp Airport district and terminals would be an advantage for the area and the residents of Oakey and Toowoomba.

If Translink doesn't do it the airport will likely go into arrangements with Skybus preventing future competitive public transport. This happened to and from Melbourne and Brisbane airports.

Comparable Airports that have a public bus service are Mackay, Maroochydore and Newcastle. Toowoomba Wellcamp also fits into this category in relation to catchment and population.

Population and catchment is one thing, number of flights is another

Just schedule the buses for 45 mins prior to departure and 30-40 mins after arrival. Similarly to what has occurs on the Sunshine Coast and Newcastle.

Buses have to be consistent and logical to be useful. How would that tie in with the rest of the network there? What happens if a plane gets delayed? Keep in mind what I've said previously,

QuoteAny airport bus would probably need to cover a fair chunk of the city to be a one-seat trip for most for it to be any sort of competition to taxis, Uber (if it's up there) or friends/family dropping people off.

Any Airport bus would cover a tiny part of the City to/from Wellcamp, and the supporting network up there is no where near the level of being able to make easy or useful connections.

And that's even before you take into account the fact that if plane arrival and departure times don't align so you can't have the same bus do the service to Wellcamp and return in service, you're looking at upwards of 30 mins of dead running in each direction just to get back to Toowoomba Central to do another route (https://www.google.com/maps/dir/-27.5647316,151.796002/-27.5602389,151.9556734/@-27.5492147,151.8209967,18576m/data=!3m1!1e3).

It simply isn't viable for what it's worth. Try Cairns and Townsville first, both with more flights, more tourism, more people and a much better supporting network.

Quote from: verbatim9 on February 17, 2022, 15:24:06 PM
Comparable Airports that have a public bus service are Mackay, Maroochydore and Newcastle. Toowoomba Wellcamp also fits into this category in relation to catchment and population.

Every single one of the buses you have mentioned primarily exists for other reasons - they just happen to go past an airport mid-route where it is not a big imposition to send them past the terminal (622 at MCY, the Port Stephens routes at NTL, the 502 at GLT) or they end up there (the 304 in Mackay, the extensions of the 20 in Rockhampton).  Patronage would have been near to negligible even before COVID-19.  There's no comparison with Airtrain or the 777.

What reason would a Wellcamp bus have for existing?  There's basically nothing on the way once you clear the urban limits of Toowoomba.  If you have resources to throw at this you'd be better off improving services within Toowoomba.  (There's probably more of a case to extend the 539 to Toowoomba so Withcott and Helidon have a connection to it that doesn't require a coach booking.)

Whitsunday Transit's service does not extend past Proserpine to the Whitsunday Coast Airport for similar reasons - it's dead space (and they would be competing with transfer operators, including themselves).

There is no airport bus in Bundaberg, Townsville or Cairns even though there could probably be pretty easily in all 3 cases - and all 3 are busier airports and closer to the nearest centre of gravity.  I would regard all 3 as being bigger priorities, along with better weekend (especially Sunday) services.

Brisbane Times---> Giants of the sky to return to Brisbane in 'sign of confidence' for tourism sector

QuoteThe world's largest passenger jet will reappear in Brisbane's skies next month, as travel demand continues to rise in the wake of Australia's border reopening to international tourists.

Emirates will reinstate Airbus A380 services to Brisbane Airport from March 1, linking the Queensland capital to its Dubai hub.

ABC --> Fair skies ahead for new budget airline Bonza despite industry turbulence, say analysts

ABC News --> Brisbane flight paths to be redone after years of noise complaints, LNP says

QuoteBrisbane's flight paths will be redrawn, the LNP says, after an interim report commissioned by Airservices Australia made nearly 50 recommendations to reduce suburban flight noise.

Key points:
. The flight paths were updated when Brisbane's second runway opened in 2020
. The federal Member for Brisbane says residents have been putting up with "unreasonable" noise ever since
. A trial involving planes flying at higher altitudes en route to the airport is already underway

The interim report by global air traffic consultants Trax International was released on Friday.

It made multiple recommendations to resolve the issues that followed the opening of the airport's second runway in 2020, which led to hundreds of flights being redirected over Brisbane suburbs.

"The top priority objective ... is to maximise the number of Brisbane flights that arrive and depart simultaneously over water, rather than overflying populations in the city and surrounding suburbs," the report said.

A long-term recommendation also included the examination of "the scope and expected benefits of a fundamental redesign to the wider airspace system, including Brisbane terminal airspace, adjacent airports and en-route sectors". ...

Brisbanetimes --> Long-awaited Brisbane aircraft noise results due to land next month

QuoteThe results of the first trials of alternative Brisbane Airport flight paths – and noise over the suburbs – will be presented to the public in June.

Alternative take-off and landing routes have been trialled for both runways at Brisbane Airport since late February after air-traffic consultancy firm Trax International called for major changes to flight paths. ...

Brisbanetimes --> Pilots campaign against 'risky' increase to tailwind speed at Brisbane Airport

QuoteCommercial pilots believe increasing the maximum tailwind speed for landing planes at Brisbane Airport in a bid to reduce noise would be too risky.

A professional body representing more than 7000 Australian pilots has begun a public campaign against the move to increase the maximum tailwind for landing aircraft from 5 knots to 7 knots in Brisbane.

Airservices Australia and the Brisbane Airport Corporation have been under pressure to address complaints about aircraft noise since Brisbane's new parallel runway opened in July 2020.

One recommendation was to ask the Civil Aviation Safety Authority to raise the maximum tailwind speed for landing aircraft. ...

Brisbane Times---> Expansion of Brisbane's domestic terminal shelved amid bigger plans

QuoteBrisbane Airport has quietly shelved an expansion of its existing domestic terminal as it turns its attention to a new hybrid domestic and international terminal facing the new parallel runway.

The 2000-square-metre Domestic Terminal Northern Regional Satellite, which was to be completed about 300 metres off the airport's northernmost "finger" by 2017, would have been the biggest single expansion of the terminal since it opened in 1988.

I like the cross gate model, similar to what they do in Europe.

https://twitter.com/7NewsBrisbane/status/1551818985351827456

https://twitter.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1556200096215212032

Brisbanetimes --> Brisbane Airport still faces years of reviews, possible flight path changes

QuoteBrisbane Airport still faces years of reviews and possible flight path changes after a review into the impact of aircraft noise was delivered on Monday.

The review, by air traffic consultancy Trax International, recommended planes simultaneously arrived over Moreton Bay to land at the airport's newest runway, while departures left from the original runway over Moreton Bay. ...

Quote from: verbatim9 on February 17, 2022, 16:02:53 PMJust schedule the buses for 45 mins prior to departure and 30-40 mins after arrival. Similarly to what has occurs on the Sunshine Coast and Newcastle.

Time for some facts:

Similarly to what has occurs on the Sunshine Coast and Newcastle.
Actually, Sunshine Coast Airport is on the 622 from Noosa Junction to Maroochydore.
It runs hourly, it is not specifically aligned with arrivals and departures.

The same goes for Newcastle. The airport is along a longer mainline 130 route from Newcastle to Nelson Bay.
This runs hourly, and the bus just pulls into the airport since it is on the main road anyway/

Just schedule the buses for 45 mins prior to departure and 30-40 mins after arrival.
This is inconsistent with your earlier comment:
there is still a need for a regular PT service for workers
So if you want to dead run a bus to meet each flight specifically, then how would that suit workers, who would start their shift before the passengers check in, and would need to stay after the passengers have left?

It is not financially viable to have this type of route because there are too few flights and too few employees and the airport is 20km by road from town so very isolated, and we shouldn't run routes that are going to be empty most of the time.

I understand that some travellers are on a tight budget, but it's not really the job of taxpayers to ensure people have a cheap airport experience.

Also, for what its worth, the bus stop at Maroochydore aiport had the following annual boardings.

2017   2438   
2018   2456   
2019   2592   
2020   748

This works out to around 6 passengers per day.

So it is difficult to imagine a Wellcamp bus stop getting more than the Sunshine Coast Airport.

It would be very likely to get around 2 or 3 passengers per day.

Would you support a 20km long bus route only used by 2 or 3 people per day?

https://twitter.com/BrisbaneAirport/status/1568471843228590080

Couriermail Sunshine Coast --> Sunshine Coast flights: Bonza Airline's Australian-first app revealed $

QuoteIn what Bonza says is an Aussie-first, customers will book their flights through an app or a travel agent only – once the airline gets off the ground.

The airline's chief executive Tim Jordan said the move to app and travel agent-only booking was to ensure Bonza had a direct line of communication with customers through in-app messaging.

"What we want to do is have as many people as possible through our app because it allows us to give a better service to our customers, especially when things go wrong," he said.

He said the app booking concept was a first for an Australian airline. ...

Tropic Now--->Upgrade to start next year for Cairns airport international terminal

Cairns International Airport upgrade on track.

No combined terminal at this stage.

I wonder if they might consider cross gate operations in the future?

In Qld --> World at our feet: Brisbane airport looks for another terminal and more transport

QuoteBrisbane Airport was likely to get a third terminal and new ways to connect passengers with the Gold and Sunshine Coasts as well as the city.

Brisbane Airport chief executive Gert-Jan de Graaf said the new terminal was likely to be a mix of domestic and international and new transport options would be separate to the existing train travel through the Air Train.

However, the direct link between the airport Gold Coast won't survive Cross River Rail and would force passengers to change trains at central.

De Graaf said Brisbane Airport was working with the State Government on mass transport options and connectivity to the two coasts and the city was important for the Olympics. ...

 

Sounds like a glimmer of hope, regarding anew mass transit plan. Looking forward to the new terminal coming into fruition as well.

Quote from: verbatim9 on October 20, 2022, 19:40:47 PMSounds like a glimmer of hope, regarding anew mass transit plan. Looking forward to the new terminal coming into fruition as well.

Watch it be a single bus route which operates once per hour 

Couriermail --> Brisbane Airport confirms plan to build new 'hybrid' terminal, Airtrain service under review $

QuoteBrisbane Airport has confirmed planning is underway to build a new hybrid domestic and international terminal as it prepares for a boom in passenger numbers, while the maligned Airtrain service could be about to change.

Brisbane Airport has confirmed planning is underway to build a new hybrid domestic and international terminal as it prepares for a boom in passenger numbers and record infrastructure spending over the next two decades.

It comes amid growing calls to fix the current deal with rail service Airtrain, which is seen as expensive and doesn't meet the needs of airline passengers and workers across the airport precinct.

The third terminal, to the north of the current domestic terminal, would see BNE become a major connection hub within Australia and a gateway to Asia and North America. ...

ABC News --> Brisbane Airport Corporation flags third terminal option with air traffic expected to double by 2040

QuoteBrisbane Airport Corporation is considering adding a third terminal to keep up with future demand ahead of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Key points:

BAC estimates the airport will have 50 million passengers a year by 2040
A third terminal could cater for both domestic and international flights
Brisbane Flight Path Community Alliance says more flights mean more noise

Stephen Beckett from the Brisbane Airport Corporation (BAC) said the airport was running out of space with its two terminals.

"We really need that extra capacity to make sure that Queenslanders and people visiting Queensland can get to the destinations they need," he said. ...

I ran some numbers on Brisbane Airport.    
===

Referring to the BAC Annual Report for 2022.

Financial statements on Page 68:
The BAC Group Total revenue was AUD $500,583,000 (FY 2022)

-    Aeronautical Revenue: AUD $173,914,000  (34.74%)
-    BAC earned $60 million in public car parking revenue (11.98%) (See p.35)

There are 15,287 public car parking bays at BNE. So that works out to be $3924.90 revenue per car park, for FY 2022, on average. Based on a standard car park dimension of 2.4 m x 5.4 m (AS 2890), we can estimate a total area of about 12.96 m2 x 15,287 = 198,119.52 m2 car parking.

The per-square meter value is then $60 million / 198,119.52 m2 = $302.84 revenue/m2 per year. We can then use this figure to compare against office space rents. This compares well against say what B-Grade commercial office space is leasing for in Brisbane (see Colliers data).

But revenues are half the story.

We know from Springfield's Park & Ride that a multi-storey car park like that could cost ~ $85,600 to construct per car space. If the car park generates $3924.90 per year revenue, then a rough way to look at things would be how many years to pay back the construction cost.*

$85,600 / $3924.90 = 21 years. The life of a car park might be 40-50 years before it would need replacement. Would be interesting to see how that compared to say, office construction or warehousing.

In any case, long term car park expansion is in conflict with BNE's Long Term goals for the site. BAC wants to put hotels, offices, warehouses etc there. Basically anything and everything that isn't residential or agriculture. BAC can't do that if the land area is consumed by car parking. BNE might have a lot of land, but not all of it is a convenient walk from the terminals.

References

BAC Annual Report 2022
https://www.bne.com.au/sites/default/files/no-index/BAC-Annual-Report_2022.pdf

AS 2890 – Parking Facilities
https://trafficparking.com.au/2890.1-2004(+A1).pdf

Colliers Commercial Leasing Rates
https://www.colliers.com.au/en-au/research/quarterly-asset-class-snapshots-q3-2022

Model: Net Present Value Exercise

* A more sophisticated treatment would:

- Forecast the future revenues for the car park for the life of the car park (say 45 years asset life at long-term AU GDP 3.35%)
- Discount these at 7% (the Infrastructure Australia Discount Rate)
- Sum it all up to get the present value of the future revenue stream
- Subtract the construction cost to get Net Present Value (NPV).

This would then output approximately the sale value of the car park if it were sold.

To extract a generic multi-storey car park construction cost as an input, I could use the six-storey car park being constructed at Caboolture Hospital.
(I feel the Springfield P&R one is a bit on the high side)
https://metronorth.health.qld.gov.au/caboolture/caboolture-hospital-redevelopment/project-overview

QuoteThe Queensland Government has committed $46.6 million to deliver a new six floor Multi-Storey Carpark for Caboolture Hospital. The new carpark will include over 1,000 parking spaces in a mix of multi-story and at-grade facilities.

(Note - It's 1080 spaces)

This gives $43,148 as the average car park construction cost.

Model of Future Cash Flows/Revenues

Year.        Revenue.    Discounted.           
0        3924.9        3924.9        DR    7%
1        4056.19        3790.83        AU GDP    3.35%
2        4191.87        3661.34           
3        4332.09        3536.27        PV    $91,674.65
4        4476.99        3415.48        Construct    $43,000
5        4626.75        3298.81        NPV    $48,674.65
6        4781.51        3186.12           
7        4941.46        3077.29           
8        5106.75        2972.17           
9        5277.57        2870.65           
10        5454.10        2772.59           
11        5636.54        2677.88           
12        5825.08        2586.41           
13        6019.93        2498.06           
14        6221.30        2412.73           
15        6429.40        2330.31           
16        6644.47        2250.71           
17        6866.72        2173.83           
18        7096.42        2099.57           
19        7333.79        2027.85           
20        7579.11        1958.59           
21        7832.63        1891.68           
22        8094.63        1827.06           
23        8365.39        1764.65           
24        8645.22        1704.38           
25        8934.40        1646.16           
26        9233.25        1589.92           
27        9542.11        1535.61           
28        9861.29        1483.16           
29        10191.15        1432.50           
30        10532.04        1383.56           
31        10884.34        1336.30           
32        11248.42        1290.66           
33        11624.68        1246.57           
34        12013.53        1203.99           
35        12415.38        1162.86           
36        12830.67        1123.14           
37        13259.86        1084.77           
38        13703.40        1047.72           
39        14161.78        1011.93           
40        14635.49        977.36           
41        15125.05        943.98           
42        15630.98        911.73           
43        16153.84        880.59           
44        16694.19        850.51           
45        17252.61        821.46           
                       
Note - Not financial advice, academic exercise for forum discussion purposes only.

Comments

From the above a car park at Brisbane Airport has an estimated value through this approach at ~ $48,674.65.

In other words, there is about ~ $744,089,374 worth of car parking sitting at Brisbane Airport. 

That is a truly enormous amount of money embodied in car parking assets.

Note, if we know the construction cost and the NPV we can also output an estimate for the BCR:

Value of Car Park Space $48,674.65 / $43,000 construction cost = BCR 1.13



Notes

One problem with your calculations. It's commonwealth land under the airport act. Local and state rules mostly do not apply. No need for multiple levels of permits required from multiple bodies. Work hours and noise restrictions are also different. This dramatically cuts costs. Also due to its close proximity to the gateway motorway and other large scale business such as Wagners being next door also helps keep costs down. Having large amounts of land available for storing materials also keeps costs down.

Also using data on the back of a pandemic isn't helpful aswell as it skews your argument. As I said elsewhere before the pandemic they were making nearly 70 million in profit per year on revenue exceeding $100 million.

China is opening up from Jan 8, so get ready for the onslaught of new flights and previous ones flying into Brisbane prior to COVID. 👍

New satellites will be launched into orbit that will improve air safety in Australia.


The Guardian--->Australian satellites to be launched on SpaceX rocket in bid to close air traffic gaps | SpaceX | The Guardian

Bonza the 'bogan' airline has had a tough year – but it may finally be about to take off
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/07/bonza-the-bogan-airline-has-had-a-tough-year-but-it-may-finally-be-about-to-take-off

I read the article, and it just sounds like they are just asking for or inviting bankruptcy. TigerAir was, and Jetstar is not profitable. Virgin Airlines got out of the budget space because the money is being made at the top end (business) not at the bottom.

QuoteA frustrating wait for approval to fly has left Australia's new low-cost carrier on the sidelines as demand and airfares soar. Now the credibility of its brand faces the real test

The brand stinks, what is the investment firm thinking?

QuoteAfter issuing a call out to regional councils to gauge their interest in attracting the airline's services, it has set up its base on the Sunshine Coast. It initially plans to offer services to 17 airports, including Cairns, the Whitsunday Coast, Melbourne, Port Macquarie, Newcastle and Mildura – but not Sydney.

This is a huge mistake! A better idea is to run flights out of Western Sydney Airport when it opens in 2026.

QuoteIn early 2022, the airline said customers should expect to pay about $50 for every hour they are in the air. Tony Webber, a former chief economist at Qantas, says that promise could be impossible to keep without making a loss, given that jet fuel prices have almost doubled in the past year.

Ignore the numbers at your own peril!   

It will be interesting to watch.

I'm also not sure why you're mad at the avoiding Sydney at launch, then talking about Western Sydney airport which doesn't open for a few years yet... If they're still around, i'd imagine they'll be on it like flies on poop. But they can't fly to an airport that isn't open!

Thanks for the comment.

I think there is an under appreciation around timing.

A project that is done too early or before it's time will generate a lower future revenue stream which will devalue the business.

Similarly, a project done too late or after an opportunity has passed will also devalue the business in the same way.

IMO this company has got the wrong time and the wrong place. Whether the industry itself is profitable to even enter is also questionable.

That said, some other company will probably take up the window of opportunity that Western Sydney Airport is.

Smh--->Budget airline Bonza finally licensed to fly

^^Breaking

Couriermail --> Civil Aviation Safety Authority grants fledgling budget airline Bonza certification $

QuoteBudget carrier Bonza gets approval for its aircraft – named Sheila, Shazza and Bazza – to begin flights to 19 domestic destinations within weeks.

Bonza will become Australia's first new major airline in more than 15 years after gaining approval to operate commercial flights.

The Civil Aviation Safety Authority confirmed on Thursday it had granted the budget carrier an air operator certificate, clearing a path for takeoff within weeks.

Bonza chief executive officer Tim Jordan said it was an "historic moment for Australian aviation as we get ready to launch the country's only independent low-cost carrier".

"The excitement for what we are about to deliver is palpable and the timing couldn't be better," Mr Jordan said. "Demand for domestic travel is high and Aussies deserve for travel to be a basic right for many, not a luxury for a few." ...

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1613535121751314435