RAIL - Back On Track Forum

They shouldn't buy out the contract, but negotiate for extended times of operation as well as new ticketing options with smart ticketing.

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1796588754846745010

Discussion on this Airtrain Fare announcement > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?msg=284376

Quote from: ozbob on May 11, 2024, 03:27:49 AMSeems some are a little confused with the last services ex BNE.

These are the current evening timetables.

https://translink.com.au/sites/default/files/acquiadam-assets/timetables/200302-gold-coast-airport.pdf





To increase the span:

Additional services from BNE Domestic at 10:34pm (Gold Coast) starts from BNE Domestic instead of Bowen Hills, 11:04pm  and 11:34pm (Roma St), except Fridays and Saturdays would be the existing Gold Coast Services starting from BNE Domestic rather than Bowen Hills.

Couriermail --> LNP confirm Airtrain buyback plan despite Labor conceding current asking price 'unaffordable'

QuoteThe LNP will consider buying back the Airtrain if it wins the October state election, after Labor conceded the current asking price was unaffordable.

The state government yesterday announced Airtrain fares would be slashed in half from August after it reached a deal with Airtrain overseas owners Britain's Universities Superannuation Scheme.

The deal will not impact the existing airtight contract which prohibits Brisbane City Council or TransLink from running any other services to Brisbane Airport terminals until 2036. ...

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1797018177161081179

https://x.com/7NewsBrisbane/status/1796816994853077065?t=a3L0Y1yEl7RuiJIW-YX3sQ&s=19

Quote from: ozbob on June 02, 2024, 07:30:03 AMCouriermail --> LNP confirm Airtrain buyback plan despite Labor conceding current asking price 'unaffordable'

QuoteThe LNP will consider buying back the Airtrain if it wins the October state election, after Labor conceded the current asking price was unaffordable.

There's a big difference between the CM headline "confirm buyback plan" versus the article first paragraph "consider buying back".

Another attempt from LNP and CM to suggest there's some difference and magic solution that doesn't cost a bucket load that the government isn't pursuing.

Has the LNP announced a single actual detailed public transport policy? Surely as the likely incoming government its about time they are pressured for details instead of criticising everything and promising they'll fix it all with no policy detail.

Quote from: Cleveland Line on June 02, 2024, 07:52:15 AM

Quote from: ozbob on June 02, 2024, 07:30:03 AMCouriermail --> LNP confirm Airtrain buyback plan despite Labor conceding current asking price 'unaffordable'

QuoteThe LNP will consider buying back the Airtrain if it wins the October state election, after Labor conceded the current asking price was unaffordable.

There's a big difference between the CM headline "confirm buyback plan" versus the article first paragraph "consider buying back".

Another attempt from LNP and CM to suggest there's some difference and magic solution that doesn't cost a bucket load that the government isn't pursuing.

Has the LNP announced a single actual detailed public transport policy? Surely as the likely incoming government its about time they are pressured for details instead of criticising everything and promising they'll fix it all with no policy detail.

Yes the Sunshine Coast rail line and revising the transport objectives for the Southern half of the Gold Coast; Re: LRT, BRT and heavy rail to the Gold Coast Airport

^ Both of which are hideously stupid or based on magic pudding economics.

Quote from: verbatim9 on June 02, 2024, 11:06:49 AMYes the Sunshine Coast rail line and revising the transport objectives for the Southern half of the Gold Coast; Re: LRT, BRT and heavy rail to the Gold Coast Airport

What exactly have they committed to for either?

Current timetable ex BNE Domestic. The International departures are 4 minutes later.

Current timetable to BNE Domestic. The International arrivals are 3 minutes earlier.

It's such a psychological difference to people to know that a service is frequent all day that I wonder why they don't include the four or five extra services to achieve that for Monday to Friday daytime at least.

Comparison with Transperth services to Perth Airport.

Sent to all outlets:

Catch the plane, catch the train!

4th June 2024

Feedback from the public and our own observations highlight the major concerns with the Brisbane Airtrain being fares, at times poor service frequency, and the span of operation.

With the reduction in fares for the Brisbane Airtrain from 5 August 2024 for six months to $10.95 instead of $21.90, with worker prices cut down from $43 to $21.50 for weekly tickets and $120 down to $60 for a book of 20 tickets, it is an opportune time to address the poor service frequency and span of operation.

We expect that there will be a very significant patronage increase on the Brisbane Airtrain as passengers take advantage of cheaper fares on the Airtrain and seek to maximise their travel using the 50 Cent flat fares on the rest of the Translink network from the 5th August 2024.

In order to visualise how the Airtrain timetable could be improved we charted the timetable to show the times when the service frequency is a train every 30 minutes compared to when it is an optimal 15 minute service frequency.

Current timetable from BNE Domestic Terminal. The International Terminal departures are 4 minutes later.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4637;image

Current timetable to BNE Domestic Terminal. The International Terminal arrivals are 3 minutes earlier.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4641;image

As can be noted during the weekdays there are mid morning and mid afternoon periods of low frequency. These would be eliminated with the addition of services to depart at 10:40am 11:10am 11:40am (for Roma St) and 1:40pm 2:10pm 2:40pm ( for Roma St).

Extending the span of operation could be achieved by adding services as follows:
Additional services from BNE Domestic at 10:34pm (for Varsity Lakes)) starts from BNE Domestic instead of Bowen Hills; 11:04pm and 11:34pm (for Roma St), except Fridays and Saturdays would be the existing Gold Coast Services starting from BNE Domestic rather than Bowen Hills.

The final suggestions for improvement are additional services in the early morning peak, and in the early evening so that 15 minute services are maintained until the 8:34pm departure from BNE Domestic.

It is worthwhile to compare the rail service on the Transperth Network to and from Perth Airport, compared to the rail service to and from Brisbane Airport.
Over a week there are a total of 1019 services for Perth and 632 for Brisbane.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4666;image

On every day of the week there are more services to and from Perth Airport than there are for Brisbane Airport.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4664;image


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4672;image

This is why Airtrain and the State Government need to think about how they can improve the service frequency of the Brisbane Airtrain.

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Facebook ...

https://x.com/railbotforum/status/1797770319618576391

Brisbanetimes --> Airtrain debacle shows the pitfalls of privatised public transport $

QuoteIt's a travesty that the needs of shareholders in a British-based pension fund outweigh the needs of Brisbane Airtrain commuters but, thanks to a short-sighted decision in 1998 to privatise part of our public transport network, that's where we find ourselves. ...

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1798011328914956556

Couriermail --> Brisbane Airtrain: Half-price fares but no changes to timetable $

QuoteDespite the Queensland government spending $10m to halve fares on Brisbane's Airtrain, no additional services will be added for travellers and airport staff.

A permanent fix for Brisbane Airport's public transport woes is still being sought by the state government, despite it stumping up $10m to slash Airtrain fares ahead of the October election.

Despite the significant cash injection, no additional services will be added and the timetable will not be extended.

Transport Minister Bart Mellish said half-price fares would be welcomed by the more than 20,000 people who worked at the airport and travellers who used it. ...

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1798374511634747634

https://x.com/railbotforum/status/1798382558457352351

Sent to all outlets:

6th June 2024

Re: Catch the plane, catch the train!

Good Morning,

According to today's Couriermail article: Brisbane Airtrain: Half-price fares but no changes to timetable  https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/brisbane-airtrain-halfprice-fares-but-no-changes-to-timetable/news-story/8009f1363addf9a7d4c866acf46fa229 the LNP will consider buying back the Airtrain if they win the October election.  Declaring it could be a legacy for the Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games.  We agree it is a sensible legacy.  Investment in terms of buying out the BOOT agreement would return handsome dividends as the Airtrain line becomes a true part of the Translink network, with the same integrated fare structure as the rest of the Citytrain network, with proper frequency and span of service.  Travel to and from Brisbane Airport by train would become the sensible first choice.

The present Miles' Labor Government should move now to buy out the Airtrain agreement, or otherwise they will be left waiting at the station for a train that is not arriving!

Best wishes,
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Quote from: ozbob on June 04, 2024, 08:56:15 AMSent to all outlets:

Catch the plane, catch the train!

4th June 2024

Feedback from the public and our own observations highlight the major concerns with the Brisbane Airtrain being fares, at times poor service frequency, and the span of operation.

With the reduction in fares for the Brisbane Airtrain from 5 August 2024 for six months to $10.95 instead of $21.90, with worker prices cut down from $43 to $21.50 for weekly tickets and $120 down to $60 for a book of 20 tickets, it is an opportune time to address the poor service frequency and span of operation.

We expect that there will be a very significant patronage increase on the Brisbane Airtrain as passengers take advantage of cheaper fares on the Airtrain and seek to maximise their travel using the 50 Cent flat fares on the rest of the Translink network from the 5th August 2024.

In order to visualise how the Airtrain timetable could be improved we charted the timetable to show the times when the service frequency is a train every 30 minutes compared to when it is an optimal 15 minute service frequency.

Current timetable from BNE Domestic Terminal. The International Terminal departures are 4 minutes later.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4637;image

Current timetable to BNE Domestic Terminal. The International Terminal arrivals are 3 minutes earlier.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4641;image

As can be noted during the weekdays there are mid morning and mid afternoon periods of low frequency. These would be eliminated with the addition of services to depart at 10:40am 11:10am 11:40am (for Roma St) and 1:40pm 2:10pm 2:40pm ( for Roma St).

Extending the span of operation could be achieved by adding services as follows:
Additional services from BNE Domestic at 10:34pm (for Varsity Lakes)) starts from BNE Domestic instead of Bowen Hills; 11:04pm and 11:34pm (for Roma St), except Fridays and Saturdays would be the existing Gold Coast Services starting from BNE Domestic rather than Bowen Hills.

The final suggestions for improvement are additional services in the early morning peak, and in the early evening so that 15 minute services are maintained until the 8:34pm departure from BNE Domestic.

It is worthwhile to compare the rail service on the Transperth Network to and from Perth Airport, compared to the rail service to and from Brisbane Airport.
Over a week there are a total of 1019 services for Perth and 632 for Brisbane.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4666;image

On every day of the week there are more services to and from Perth Airport than there are for Brisbane Airport.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4664;image


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4672;image

This is why Airtrain and the State Government need to think about how they can improve the service frequency of the Brisbane Airtrain.

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

7 News ran a special flashback on Brisbane Airtrain.

The value of Brisbane Airtrain is south of $110 million.

As Airtrain is a limited-time concession, the sale value of Airtrain on the day that the concession expires in 2036 must be ZERO.

So the value of the company must fall each year, leading up to expiry.

If Airtrain was sold for $110 million in 2012, it is much less now.

UK Super Fund buys Brisbane Airtrain.
https://www.superreview.com.au/news/superannuation/uk-pension-scheme-buys-brisbane-railway

False. Yes the value will go down over time but that's if there wasn't anything big in the pipeline. Such as an Olympic Games with an airport public transport exclusivity contract. That boosts the value up until then. There are also multiple contract exit clauses (from what I have been told one of them is a government buy out clause ie if talks aren't started by Airtrain) along with future earnings etc on top of the buy out cost. The kicker is the future value and if Airtrain has any documents from the state about let's say the olympics can make that hurdle a bit bigger. Any form of shadow payments as you like to refer to would be more than that for the olympics.

Stop making it out to be worthless. Airtrain have a massive contract. They have no interest in running buses (Airtrain runs on an oily rag as it's majority outsourced - QR ops/mtce and 3rd party station staff - most staff are in offices) but for the olympics the government might come to them with $$$ to provide additional services - which Airtrain can price and they can simply say no too. They will sell but it has to be a high dollar value for them.

As I have mentioned before Airtrain in Sydney was sold quite cheaply with a modified contract. Westpac years later when they started turning profits were still unable to modify the contract terms with the state (they wanted an even bigger profit) then sold their share to USS who also own Brisbanes Airtrain. Brisbane Airtrain has never had its original contract modified. There have been concessions made (eg express running changing to all stops) but the core fundamental contract is that very same contract drawn up and signed for in the late 90's.

The government has tried a few hit jobs to turn the public but the reality is Airtrain has a massive contract that is mostly dependent on the olympics. You can try to gobble up the media and political spin like you normally do metro but simply put the contract, value and exit clauses by far exceeds 200 million.

Disagree HTG.

The value of a company is the sum of its future income (profit) stream, adjusted for the time value of money using a discount rate.

If the company has no future, because the concession expired, the company's sale value on this expiry day has to be ZERO.

To reach zero, the company's value must be on a path to fall each year.

I think I am on the money here, because it was built for about $200 million in 2001 but sold for half that in 2012, confirming that the value of the business falls with time to expiry.

What this means is the Qld Govt could pick up Airtrain for the same or less cost than to construct 1 km of rail in QLD ($110 million or less).

QuoteFalse. Yes the value will go down over time but that's if there wasn't anything big in the pipeline. Such as an Olympic Games with an airport public transport exclusivity contract.

But that's like a few weeks, and perhaps a bit of a tourist bump once Brisbane becomes better known. Will that really do much?

******

PS I think the reason airtrain went down in value was partly due to the fact it didn't make much money compared to the forecasts, so of course that makes the business as a whole less valuable.

Urgh. You are still ignoring the contract clauses metro. That is the kicker. Not what you think it costs to buy. That applies to your Combank or Suncorp that want to buy. Not to the state.

It's the extra payments that jack the price up to an eye watering level. Especially the state buyout ones. If airtrain went to the qld government wanting a buyout the majority of clauses don't come into effect. That's not the case here. We are going to them. This activates a lot of clauses and payouts that wouldn't apply if Combank, Suncorp etc wanted to buy it. They might pay 100 million but the state could have to pay just that in penalties for breaking the contract on top the buyout cost itself.

NSW government had the owner coming to them which enabled the state to change the contract which gave them some short term relief until another buyer was found. We never had that happen here. We still have the 90's contract which was heavily worded so that if they failed the state would get everything on the cheap. That same wording also made it quite difficult for the state to buy them out if they were quite successful.

Brisbane Airtrain were consulted as part of the olympics so they would have been given numbers on what the government expects. Pretty sure USS have majority ownership of Sydney's Airtrain. They have their own ticketing arrangement in Brisbane so they can do travel deals outside of the states control. Imagine the qld government giving BAC and Airtrain details of countries and how many travellers they expect from each country to come. Why not get BAC and Airtrain to do a deal with the airlines of free airport-cbd transfers via Airtrain. That's possible within the BOOT agreement. This. This is what is killing the state. The buyout payment. Future earnings payments. Not some news article from over a decade ago about how much someone paid for airtrain.

Quote from: Gazza on June 12, 2024, 10:09:09 AM

QuoteFalse. Yes the value will go down over time but that's if there wasn't anything big in the pipeline. Such as an Olympic Games with an airport public transport exclusivity contract.

But that's like a few weeks, and perhaps a bit of a tourist bump once Brisbane becomes better known. Will that really do much?

******

PS I think the reason airtrain went down in value was partly due to the fact it didn't make much money compared to the forecasts, so of course that makes the business as a whole less valuable.

There is the tourist/event side but there is also the support side which will be long before and after. The kicker is that Airtrain will already have the travel schedule from the state along with the small lead up events.

Quote from: #Metro on June 12, 2024, 08:13:13 AMThe value of Brisbane Airtrain is south of $110 million.

As Airtrain is a limited-time concession, the sale value of Airtrain on the day that the concession expires in 2036 must be ZERO.

So the value of the company must fall each year, leading up to expiry.

If Airtrain was sold for $110 million in 2012, it is much less now.

UK Super Fund buys Brisbane Airtrain.
https://www.superreview.com.au/news/superannuation/uk-pension-scheme-buys-brisbane-railway

It might be less than $110 million in 2012 dollars, but we are now 12 years down the road and inflation throughout that period hasn't been the gentle 2-3% per year we've become accustomed to in the last few decades. 

There's also the fact the State is not buying the Airtrain business as a going concern.  If some other operator came along and wanted to buy the contract off the current operator, that is a very different proposition to the State wanting to wind the whole thing up.  In all likelihood the operator would be trying to extract a massive premium for that.  If the State doesn't pay the price they want, they can continue to pocket earnings until 2036, but if the State does agree they get a windfall.  What incentive do they have to cooperate?

Quote from: SurfRailIf the State doesn't pay the price they want, they can continue to pocket earnings until 2036, but if the State does agree they get a windfall.  What incentive do they have to cooperate?

Who is 'they' in the last sentence?

If compensation provisions exist for break of contract, then Airtrain make a bonus, so more incentive for them to sell up now and move on, not less.

I would be surprised if the penalties exceeded 100% the value of the company, which falls each year.

There are multiple penalties and they are quite steep.

Airtrain can play the long game at the expense of the public and Brisbanes/Queenslands image. They can exploit the exclusivity - in multiple ways - but also if the government gets too concerned about pricing/the image of arriving in Brisbane airtrain can benefit off contract breaking/penalties or the government subsidising passenger numbers.

You also say it's in airtrains best interest but it's not in the states best interest to buy outright.

As SR points out. Someone else can buy Airtrain and do the exact same thing and hold the state to ransom effectively and just wait for them to come to the table to throw cash at them.

Airtrain has the cards.

Quote from: HTGYou also say it's in airtrains best interest but it's not in the states best interest to buy outright.

Just outlining the options.

I've previously pointed out that it is possible to achieve lower fares and/or more services without resorting to purchasing the company.

In this scenario it gets a subsidy, as other operators currently do. Just extend the 6 month subsidy indefinitely and pay for non-commercial top up services to be put on.

The purchase cost will be further reduced if after acquisition the Airport is put into Translink zone 4 or 5.

If the government still wanted to go down the purchase path, it could potentially ask QIC to buy it first, which might get around some of the provisions.

Patronage is also higher now than it was in 2012, and likely forecast to continue increasing as years go by.
Yes, at the handover date, the value will be effectively zero, however at this point the value is unlikely to be declining much (if at all) per year due to plenty of time left on the agreement, major events on the horizon and a likely forecast increase in patronage in the future. Not everything is black and white. And it's highly unlikely it will only be $110m or less for the state to buy it out in 2024 dollars.

Edit to add:
Also, the value of a struggling business (which Airtrain was back around 2012) is always going to be lower than the value of a solid business (which I believe Airtrain currently are). Therefore it is very likely the value of Airtrain has increased rather than decreased since its sale in 2012.

Airtrain is effectively like an expiring bond. Every year that goes by, it devalues. It has to.

How much would patronage grow? Probably not more than the rate of Brisbane's population growth, so 1-2% p.a. IMO. So I cannot see this shifting the dial much.

All of this other stuff is just noise/fluctuation on top of that basic path to zero.

Interesting exercise to try and gauge how big this Olympics revenue spike might be...

Olympics Revenue Upper Limit Estimate

632 services/week x 2 weeks x $21.90 x 1000 pax train

= $27.6 million

Assumptions:
- Every single train service at all hours for 2 weeks straight is full with 1000 pax

- Zero cost to operate the service (all revenue collected is profit)

- $21.90 fare, and same number of weekly services.

So in reality, train loadings will be far, far less and railways are not costless to operate... so figure will be much much lower in present terms.

Maybe $10-15 million is a reasonable ballpark then?

Do members think hosting the Olympics over 2 weeks will change the valuation much?

Quote from: #Metro on June 12, 2024, 15:21:28 PMDo members think hosting the Olympics over 2 weeks will change the valuation much?

Yes. It's about perceived value and optics. Having a $3 trip to the CBD is a much better look than having a $20 trip to the CBD. Airtrain knows this, and knows they can leverage the optics of it to get a sweet AF deal.

I can imagine a scenario where the state govt covers the surcharge for the 2 weeks of the Olympics. Patronage would absolutely skyrocket and Airtrain would pocket the lot.

OR they could just do what HTG has been saying and hold the state to ransom. Due to the contract they're basically at a point where they can just name their price. I don't know why you seem to be ignoring this very big part of the problem.

Quote from: #Metro on June 12, 2024, 12:10:13 PM

Quote from: SurfRailIf the State doesn't pay the price they want, they can continue to pocket earnings until 2036, but if the State does agree they get a windfall.  What incentive do they have to cooperate?

Who is 'they' in the last sentence?

If compensation provisions exist for break of contract, then Airtrain make a bonus, so more incentive for them to sell up now and move on, not less.

I would be surprised if the penalties exceeded 100% the value of the company, which falls each year.

"They" = Airtrain.

You have correctly identified why it is in Airtrain's interest to screw the State to the wall for an uncommercial sum of money, which is exactly what I was saying.  It loses nothing if no deal is achieved because it owns an asset with a finite shelf life they have already budgeted around extracting value from, ie status quo ante bellum.

The State on the other hand has zero incentive in agreeing to be screwed to the wall for an uncommercial sum of money.  The State can just subsidise pricing over the next 12 years until the concession expires, at which point they will be able to take back the whole thing.  There will be a cost to the State to run the line no differently to any other line, but that also would have been the assumption when this deal was set up, so again nothing changes.

We'll see what happens in February next year when the budgeted for fare relief is due to end.

Quote from: #Metro on June 12, 2024, 15:21:28 PMInteresting exercise to try and gauge how big this Olympics revenue spike might be...

Olympics Revenue Upper Limit Estimate

632 services/week x 2 weeks x $21.90 x 1000 pax train

= $27.6 million

Assumptions:
- Every single train service at all hours for 2 weeks straight is full with 1000 pax

- Zero cost to operate the service (all revenue collected is profit)

- $21.90 fare, and same number of weekly services.

So in reality, train loadings will be far, far less and railways are not costless to operate... so figure will be much much lower in present terms.

Maybe $10-15 million is a reasonable ballpark then?

Do members think hosting the Olympics over 2 weeks will change the valuation much?

QIC can't do anything. It triggers the same penalties. From what I've heard the deed refers to any Australian government department, entity or where a government department/entity is a majority shareholder. As I've said time and time again it was worded very strongly. Either the owner makes a massive profit on it or the state gets an entire railway line for nothing. At the moment it's not in the state governments favour.

Airtrain know the potential numbers. And that's not including extra services put on for the olympics. If you ditch Doomben services and post CRR you can just absolutely pump services Domestic-Roma Street with quick turn around crews cutting into the turn around times at Domestic and Roma Street. If the government want to extend a bus service there Airtrain can also set those prices and rules giving them further income streams. Remember they have no intention of running buses so once again onus falls on the state to provide them and if the price isn't right for Airtrain they can say simply say "no thanks". Who knows buses might offer them a 100% pure profit income stream. That's the power of the BOOT contract. Airtrain don't have to do anything. The state comes to them.

The value of Airtrain is proportional to the estimated number of trips (e.g. fares payed) for the remainder of the contract.
Yes, it will end at zero, but it can go up and down in the meantime. Extreme example: if the people of Brisbane suddenly decide to use it so much that they are paying for full trains every 10min 24/7/365, then it would be worth a lot more than it is now.

The Olympics also increase it's value not only because of the increased trips forecast (which are relatively few in the bigger picture), but because it creates a desire by government to want to own the train outright. Owning something someone covets increases its value.

In other words, the Airtrain owners know that the QLD government desperately wants control of the train and they have them by the balls...

Olympics spike is not significant and trips taken are linked to population growth fundamentals which is only 1-2% per year for Brisbane.

There is noise, but fundamentally it devalues each year. This is also the case under your 24/7 saturation train use scenario - value would go up initially but would still be on a path to zero as time runs out.

The other thing is that price and value are separate concepts. Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

A desperate government might overpay for Airtrain but that won't change the company's value. Value, as you point out correctly, is linked to trips taken before concession expiry.

And the State Government likely does not want to overpay.

In the end, government has choices. It isn't compelled to buy Airtrain, as it can just subsidise it, as it is doing for the next 6 months.

Would you say the tax payer subsidising airtrain in turn increases patronage but also increases the value of airtrain allowing USS to sell at a profit?

The contract is still 12 years from ending. Nothing stopping some other group from snapping it up for $300 million.