RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Quote from: ozbob on December 20, 2023, 22:53:22 PMSent to all outlets:

It is time Sunshine Coast public transport (all modes) was improved

21st December 2023

Greetings,

It is time that the Sunshine Coast public transport (all modes) was improved.  We expect in 2024 great strides for improved outcomes for public transport for SEQ,  but particularly the Sunshine Coast.  Enough of the spin, recycled business cases, unfulfilled promises, unmet delivery time lines, and inadequate services. 

Rail on the Sunshine Coast has been neglected for many years now.  It is an appalling situation.  Lack of action has impacts all the way up to FNQ.

To highlight some of the issues.  Have a listen to this interview:

Interview 20th December 2023 4BC Drive Host Peter Gleeson with Jeffrey Addison RAIL Back On Track - Sunshine Coast spokesperson

Discussion on new Transport Minister and rail on the Sunshine Coast

Here --> https://backontrack.org/docs/4bc/4bc_pg_ja_20dec23.mp3 MP3 4.3MB

Will the Miles' Government heed the message, or continue on a path to political oblivion?

Best wishes,
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

====


Facebook ...

https://x.com/railbotforum/status/1737534917494677532?s=20

Yesterday at the railway station
I met a man absent on vacation
He wasn't there again today,
I wish, I wish he'd come to stay

My bus was a train the timetable told me
I wish it was a real train, or could be.
I'd tell the man not there at all ....
Dishonoured promises bring downfall
Come here, come here, heed the cry
Our Sunny Coast in congestion will die.

I looked for the man again today
His neglect of our need, all hell to pay
But there on the ballot his name appears
My mark I withhold, and he disappears!

With apologies to American William Hughes Mearns who wrote the poem 'Antigonish' in 1899.

Sent to all outlets:

Duplication of the Sunshine Coast line - Beerburrum to Landsborough

26th February 2024

Good Morning,

We think there is real concern if the DSCRL will be delivered. 

We therefore think it is very prudent that the planned upgrade (track duplication) of the Sunshine Coast Line from Beerburrum to Beerwah (cut back from Landsborough) be changed to what was always the original plan.  That is, do the duplication through to Landsborough.  With the new bus station on the eastern side of Landsborough Station, it is highly likely that Landsborough will became a very important bus/rail interchange in the years to come.  To allow increased rail services to meet the demand,  it is essential the duplication go through to Landsborough.  This will also allow better management of freight trains  and long distance passenger services.

This duplication, Beerburrum to Landsborough, was originally going to be completed in 2012.  Here we are in 2024 still waiting.

Best wishes,
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Quote from: ozbob on February 25, 2024, 10:21:50 AMSent to all outlets:

Re: Business case for the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line (DSCRL)

25th February 2024

Greetings,

Thank you Premier Miles for detailing the outcome of the Business Case for the DSCRL. 

Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line on track for delivery
https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/99782

We note that the proposed branch line from Beerwah to Maroochydore (DSCRL) is going to be built in three stages – from Beerwah to Caloundra, then Birtinya, before ending in Maroochydore.  Business case has found cost for stage one to Caloundra in the range 5.5$Billion to 7$Billion.

It is anticipated that only stage one will be completed prior to 2032, and that depends on more funding from the Federal Government.

It is disappointing that the original time-lines for this project keep get pushed back.  We are however, grateful, that there is a chance for stage one prior to 2032.

Best wishes,
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Quote from: ozbob on February 10, 2024, 22:35:47 PMSent to all outlets:

Business case for the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line (DSCRL) - what's the outcome?

11th February 2024

Greetings,

We understand the business case for the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line (DSCRL) https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/direct-sunshine-coast-rail-line-planning ( why not call it what it really is - the 37km branch line from Beerwah to Maroochydore)  was finished in 2023.  When will the good citizens of the Sunshine Coast, and Queensland generally, know the outcome?

Don't forget we are still waiting for real progress - rails and sleepers on the ground for the 13km Beerburrum to Beerwah track duplication (cut back from Landsborough).  In reality we have a 50km rail construction project to mount.  Time is moving on, continuing delays with both projects means it is looking less likely these projects will be completed by 2032 unless the Government gets cracking. 

What is the outcome of the business case for the DSCRL Premier Miles?  We all would like to know thanks. Will the business case be published soon?

Best wishes,
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Beerburrum to Beerwah RAIL anyone? 

It's incredible, isn't it? Not one sleeper laid after almost six years.
This state government have an appalling record that fails to deliver rail for our region, for decades.
They pretend their falsehoods never happened.

See how the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line history in the Business Case Summary 'forgets' to include the 28 April 2005 announcement by the Beattie government for rail to Caloundra by 2015 and Maroochydore by 2020.

Quote from: Stillwater on March 12, 2024, 12:36:24 PMBeerburrum to Beerwah RAIL anyone? 

Beerburrum to Beerwah duplication is a critical prerequisite of DSCL. Beerwah-Caloundra won't work otherwise (especially if in conjunction with operations north to Nambour and beyond).

Hansard 6 March 2023

Noosa Electorate, Transport Infrastructure

Ms BOLTON (Noosa—Ind) (7.19 pm): I would like to send my condolences to the member for
Bonney. Grandpas are magic. It is only eight years until the Brisbane Olympics—that is two terms. The
projected impacts require serious commitments in multiple realms, including strategic transport to
mitigate further congestion, parking rage and environmental carnage for Noosa. With the Sunshine
Coast rail line project being partially funded there is hope as well as concern. Will the modal shift that
has been touted for decades eventuate, lessening our overburdened M1 and its tributaries or will it lead
to more cars when they hop of [sic] at Caloundra en route to their Noosa base?
With the Commonwealth government increasing net inward migration to over half a million in
2022-23 yet making no real contribution to what is needed and cancelling grants already approved for
the states, I am very concerned. My community is constrained and under ongoing strain. To
accommodate Olympic visitors as well as projected population increases within our region, we must
finish the projects that are already underway such as the next stages of the Tewantin bypass. With the
population explosion to our north, we need the north coast rail study finalised and the rail shuttle from
Gympie North to Nambour initiated. We need pedestrian crossings at our hot spots and an end to the
inappropriate volume of heavy haulage that has decimated our sleepy villages. We need better public
transport links to hospital and university precincts to our south and essential bicycle path links. A faster
rollout of smaller electric busses is a must.

Informed and on the job.

Queensland Parliament Questions on Notice

https://documents.parliament.qld.gov.au/tableOffice/questionsAnswers/2024/132-2024.pdf

Question on Notice
No. 132
Asked on 5 March 2024

MR A POWELL ASKED MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT AND MAIN ROADS AND MINISTER
FOR DIGITAL SERVICES (HON B MELLISH)

QUESTION:

Will the Minister provide an updated timeline for the signing of a contract, commencement and
completion of works on the North Coast Rail Duplication project between Beerburrum and
Beerwah?

ANSWER:

I thank the Member for Glass House for the question.

Works are progressing well on Stage 1 of the Beerburrum to Nambour (B2N) Rail upgrade with
preconstruction and design works currently underway for the main construction works. These
works will include duplication of the North Coast Line between Beerburrum and Beerwah, address
level crossings on the alignment, expand the park 'n' ride facility in Beerburrum and undertake
associated road works.

Early works included building new park 'n' ride facilities at Landsborough and Nambour (300 car
park spaces at Landsborough and 50 car park spaces at Nambour) and a new bus interchange
at Landsborough station, and were completed in August 2023.

A section of Steve Irwin Way has also been realigned near Glass House Mountains to make way
for the duplicated rail line. It is expected that the contract for the major construction works will be
entered into in mid to late 2024, subject to finalisation of contractual arrangements with the
preferred contractor.

Detailed design for B2N Stage 1 is expected to be completed in 2024. Staging of construction
works will follow. Construction is expected to be completed in 2027, weather and construction
conditions permitting.

QUOTE: "Preconstruction and design works (are) currently underway."

THERE IS NO RAIL TRACK CONSTRUCTION. This is the rail project that has a series of roadworks as its only outcome.

The locals are a wake-up to this sad state of affairs on the railway to grief and misery for those who would travel on it.

Here is a Letter to the Editor of the Glasshouse Country and Maleny News:

I was recently watching an episode of Bargain Hunt from Brighton, UK. As part of the preamble to the show, we were given a short history of the area. It became a popular seaside town in the mid 19th Century.
This was due to the construction of a railway line from London. This is a distance of 81km and was constructed using picks and shovels and horse and cart. It took three years.

Why, with all of the modern construction equipment are we struggling to build 19km of track in eight years? Maroochydore is still only 37km and we can't build that in 10 years.

I've noticed that work seems to have ground to a halt on the rail duplication to Landsborough. After the realignment of Steve Irwin Way south of Glasshouse, it's all systems stop. Is it that our civil construction industry is inadequate, or is there no urgency or will?

I remember reading of Len Beadell who, in the 1950s, built the Gunbarrel Highway. All he had was a Land Rover and his surveying equipment. He was followed by his construction crew of nine. With a truck, a dozer and a grader.

It took them four years to carve out 1300km of dirt track through Central Australia.
I'm really disappointed at how backward we have become.

-DEREK BROWNING

The same issue of the paper carries a full-page ad (opposite the Letter to the Editor page) extolling the virtues of Jason Hunt, the Member for Caloundra. Clearly, like the Olympic Games infrastructure for Brisbane, the rail upgrades for the Sunshine Coast have become political footballs.
The Sunshine Coast Line and the DSCL names should go. Let's just call them the Claytons Line.

I am thinking the best we probably hope for now is the half-baked duplication to Beerwah for 2032

I don't have much faith in the branch line to Caloundra being started any time soon.

At least the response to the Question on Notice acknowledges " the new bus interchange
at Landsborough station "   

The LNP do seem to be aware the track upgrade north of Beerburrum is needed to enable the branch to Caloundra. 

I think an enhanced bus plan needs to roll out first/now and then cut that back as the bus line is converted to rail.

Quote from: #Metro on April 05, 2024, 10:22:48 AMI think an enhanced bus plan needs to roll out first/now and then cut that back as the bus line is converted to rail.

Apart from the existing 605/615 out of Landsborough which could do with some increases, the Roys Road / Bells Creek Arterial road from Nirimba (Aura) to Beerwah via the Bruce Highway should enable Bus Connections from Beerwah Station to Nirimba/Baringa (and onward) to say SCUH via Meridan Plains (connections to the half-hourly 607/611 to/from Caloundra, Kawana, UniSC, Maroochydore, etc)

More cost blowouts mean 'staging' of major transport projects (such that they don't meet their intended objectives).

"Detailed design for Stage 1 (an estimated 13km stretch) was expected to be completed this year, with main construction works to follow, but added that costs had blown out and the government would consider its next steps."

https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2024/04/29/costs-balloon-for-upgrade-to-main-rail-line

Looking very grim. If this is not done zero chance for the branch line from Beerwah.

In effect, Beerburrum to Maroochydore railway upgrade and duplication now has a price tag of $13 billion, and counting. That's four Olympic stadiums.

https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2024/04/29/costs-balloon-for-upgrade-to-main-rail-line/

Quote... A budget blowout has cast uncertainty over another key transport project on the Sunshine Coast.

It was initially expected to cost $550.8 million to deliver the Beerburrum to Nambour Rail Upgrade (Stage 1) from Beerburrum to Beerwah, but it now has a revised price tag of $1.0042 billion and no guarantee of full funding.

Work has already started on the project, including the realignment of Steve Irwin Way, the opening of new train station car parks and construction of a bus interchange.

The new costings also cast further doubt on the proposed Stage 2 to Nambour. ...

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1784698843613008158

Facebook ...

Let's hope that a cynical on-the-nose state Labor government doesn't pull some sort of PR stunt during the 2024 election campaign, such as a sod-turning ceremony for the Caloundra Railway Station (in the electorate of Caloundra, which is desperately needs to hold) without resolving the Beerburrum-Beerwah upgrade (funding and construction) and also funding shortfall Beerwah-Caloundra. As always, this is a case of rhetoric versus reality.

Come on Stillwater this is getting tiresome.

There's not going to be any contracts awarded this year for a sod turning ceremony to occur.

https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/beerburrum-to-nambour-rail-upgrade-stage-1

Funding

The Australian Government and Queensland Government are funding the project. Project scope, cost and timing are subject to further planning, consideration and negotiation following the Australian Government's Independent Strategic Review of its Infrastructure Investment Program. Investment ID 858087

A revised project cost of $1,004.2 million was announced on 22 December 2023 and is subject to further consideration.

Funding figures as at QTRIP 2023-24 to 2026-27 (June 2023).

Total investment $550.8 million

Australian Government $390 million
Queensland Government $160.8 million

Does anyone recall an announcement on 22nd December 2023 or shortly thereafter?

I don't   

The 22 December 2023 was a Friday, and also one just before Christmas.

Perhaps request a copy of their MR?

 

I did a search of the term Beerburrum and B2N under Govt media releases (under Annastacia Palaszczuk) including all portfolios and Ministers and found nothing (from 1 Nov 2023 to 31 Dec 2023)
Same result under Stephen Miles.
Screen snapshots saved

Remember how the former Minister Mark Bailey claimed that the TMR website being updated (without telling anyone) was effectively an announcement.
I suspect the same applies in this case.

Quote from: Sunshine Coast NewsIt was initially expected to cost $550.8 million to deliver the Beerburrum to Nambour Rail Upgrade (Stage 1) from Beerburrum to Beerwah, but it now has a revised price tag of $1.0042 billion and no guarantee of full funding. ...

From a sample of other Queensland Government projects elsewhere on this forum, it was estimated that a Queensland Government specific 'Cost Explosion Factor' is about 1.8x. For convenience, this can be rounded to 2x.

Funding agencies such as Infrastructure Australia should start recording and tracking before and after completion costs for each Australian State/Territory and add it to each's "track record" as over time this will build up a profile/picture of whether (a) estimates systematically/reliably depart from what actual endpoint costs are, and (b) by how much.

The general rule of thumb is you take the Queensland Government figure and double it to get the likely end point cost. I am sure someone else could do a similar estimate for timeliness comparing announced project start or finish dates with actual start or finish dates. It would be a very interesting analysis indeed...

So, how close are we to that 1.8x in this particular case?

Initial cost = $550.8 million
Estimated final = $1.0042b

$1.0042b / 0.5508b => 1.82x

So in this case, it's right on the mark...

One wonders how projects that depend on Class A ROW / Priority A ROW, whatever the mode, can continue when each of them seemingly requires ~ 100% contingency. 

^All of the projects that experienced a blowout were initially funded pre pandemic weren't they?

Quote from: Gazza on April 29, 2024, 11:23:36 AM^All of the projects that experienced a blowout were initially funded pre pandemic weren't they?

Yea. Most projects that have 'blown out' were costed a long while ago. The blow out is mainly a symptom of delays or dilly-dallying. If the B2N stage 1 had been completed when the cost estimate was calculated it's likely it wouldn't have blown out much at all. CRR for example has only seen moderate cost blowouts since construction began.

@metro whats the formula for cost blowouts in WA to compare? They weren't immune.

https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/metronet-cost-jumps-2-billion-in-12-months-20231219-p5esl3.html

The writing is on the wall for long lists of expensive mega projects requiring any form of Class A or Priority A ROW. This goes for all modes, including car.

As for projects being pre-Covid... these escalations have far outstripped general CPI. One wonders if the Queensland Government will really deliver these Sunshine Coast line upgrades in full.

IMO, I reckon they might only do to Beerburrum...



Source: https://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualDecimal.html

Quote from: Gazza@metro whats the formula for cost blowouts in WA to compare? They weren't immune.

I don't have the WA figures at my disposal, but as before, ideally IA should be tracking and recording these for all IA co-funded projects. Reading the article a bit further:

Quote from: WA TodaySaffioti defended the cost jumps on Tuesday, repeating previous commentary that WA builds rail at a tenth of the cost of our east coast counterparts, and of the costs we do incur, half of those are shared with the Commonwealth.

"That's something we're very proud of because we have been able to deliver at a minimum compared to other states," she said.

WA does an excellent job in rail because they build rail fast, effectively, and cheaply.



Other notes

Quote from: WA TodaySo far, the state has been shielded by historic iron ore royalties (an estimated $9 billion this year up from $5.9 billion expected back in May) and there is so much cash flying there is plenty to cover those blowouts and still deliver government services at an acceptable level.

Metronet cost jumps $2 billion in 12 months
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/metronet-cost-jumps-2-billion-in-12-months-20231219-p5esl3.html

Inflation is not the only cost pressure atm. It's a contributing factor but there's also supply chain constraints causing the cost of materials to rise and also a shortage in skilled laborers which means a higher price is required to attract enough workers.

Quote from: Gazza on April 29, 2024, 08:24:21 AMCome on Stillwater this is getting tiresome.

There's not going to be any contracts awarded this year for a sod turning ceremony to occur.

It's a fair question from SW given the history of rail to the Sunshine Coast.
B2N was GO we were told in 2018.
The Govt (Minister Bart Mellish) announced that the contract for B2N would be announced this year, 2024 (in a recent QoN reply) and be completed by 2027.

Quote from: ozbob on April 29, 2024, 09:40:45 AMDoes anyone recall an announcement on 22nd December 2023 or shortly thereafter?

I don't 

1.
There was a story in the Courier-Mail on December 23 at 12:00am by Madura McCormack titled: New Qld transport minister brings transparency after Mark Bailey era
It listed the items in a picture further down in the story, including Beerburrum to Nambour.

...Under the renewed plan for transparency the government will update the cost of transport projects under construction twice a year, up from the current one.

2.
Transport Minister Bart Mellish MP issued a Facebook post about being open and accountable about cost increases on public transport on 22 December 2023.
In a comment under that post he displayed a screen snapshot of the cost increases, which included Beerburrum to Nambour Rail Upgrade (Stage 1) as being a revised indicative total cost of $1.0042 billion.

^ thanks FF. 

Very low key approach though, guess they can say it was " announced " even if the shadows of Santa.

 

From Couriermail 22 Dec 2023  https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/new-qld-transport-minister-brings-transparency-after-mark-bailey-era/news-story/cada0d023ca48f232cd968ad4b96297a

Headings are Project name, Budget June 2023 millions, Revised Budget cost millions

Sunshine Coast News --> Land banked for sport and rec remains in limbo amid rail corridor uncertainty

QuoteSunshine Coast Council says it is investigating the feasibility and costs of developing land that was earmarked for sport and rec 10 years ago.

Council bought more than 100 hectares off Diddilibah Road at Woombye in early 2014 but nothing has happened there since, despite the land being labelled the Nambour Woombye Sports Precinct on Google Maps.

Councillor Winston Johnston told Sunshine Coast News that council essentially acquired the gently undulating area in case existing sports grounds made way for a proposed rail upgrade.

"This land was purchased by council when we believed that some Woombye sporting facilities would be resumed for the rail duplication," he said. ...

Couriermail reports https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/federal-budget-2024-qld-gets-road-and-rail-funds-question-mark-over-water/news-story/415b5d69c08db2ea319504df83f5895a

" There is also another $226.7m for the Beerburrum to Nambour Rail Upgrade, which had blown out to $1bn in December 2023 after initially costing $550m. "

Quote from: ozbob on May 15, 2024, 07:49:57 AMCouriermail reports https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/federal-budget-2024-qld-gets-road-and-rail-funds-question-mark-over-water/news-story/415b5d69c08db2ea319504df83f5895a

" There is also another $226.7m for the Beerburrum to Nambour Rail Upgrade, which had blown out to $1bn in December 2023 after initially costing $550m. "

That is great news. Thank you federal government, you are our rail life-saver.

It required an extra $453.4 million, so Qld need to cough up another $226.7 million for it to proceed.

If the extra money is there from the federal and state governments for Beerwah to Beerburrum, then the missing piece in the financial/cost overruns budget kerfuffle is now in place and the B to B and Beerwah to Caloundra rail projects are in lockstep. It is easy to see also that the expertise and skill sets developed on the Cross River Rail project can be switched north almost seamlessly.

The focus should now switch to Beerwah to Nambour rail and its projected upgrade.