RAIL - Back On Track Forum

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=all&sort=az

It's all over ... LNP retain majority on BCC & Lord Mayor.

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https://x.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1769166535481041148?s=20

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az

Interesting three two wards still in doubt.  Labor ahead in all three two now.

2024 BCC probable outcome (still subject to change)

Liberal National 17 + 1 (LM)
Labor    6
Greens    2
Independent 1

https://x.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1769187456509997361?s=20

https://x.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1769193835685646466?s=20

The city is f&$ked

Quote from: verbatim9 on March 17, 2024, 10:46:59 AM

Quote from: ozbob on March 17, 2024, 10:31:18 AMhttps://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/every-key-promise-from-the-lnp-labor-and-the-greens-this-council-election-20240314-p5fcdh.html

Policy commitments as published:

Public transport

LNP

Spend $435 million to complete the first two stages of the Brisbane Metro busway, where high-capacity buses running at five-minute intervals will ferry commuters to the CBD.

Spend approximately $125 million to build a new Brisbane Metro charging station in Fitzgibbon to extend services to the northside.

Spend $10 million to give buses priority and more room on Ipswich and Beaudesert roads, including bus jump lanes (allowing the bus to leave a traffic lane to stop).

Start tender process for construction of a battery-powered or hybrid Bulimba to Teneriffe cross-river ferry.

Extend CityCat services to the Howard Smith Wharves ferry terminal.

Refurbish Apollo Road ferry terminal.


Active transport:

LNP

Spend more than $126 million on active transport projects, including:

new bikeways along Shafston Ave; new walking and cycling paths at Pallara;

new Tilley Road Bikeway, Wakerley;

new bikeway connecting Minnippi Bikeway to the Minnippi Golf Course;

new bikeway along Prebble Street connecting Rochedale to Wishart.

Implement Safer Schools Precincts plan to improve pedestrian safety in four school areas at Mansfield, Kedron, Wynnum Manly and Indooroopilly, by widening footpaths and using pavement marking to highlight safe walking routes.

Build a third pedestrian and cycling green bridge between Toowong and West End.

Yes, they have pledged an upgrade to the traffic light systems, so one would expect bus priority to be a part of the upgrade. Therefore, we should put in a submission to include this in the terms of reference and outcomes of the new traffic light management system, to ensure buses have priority Brisbane wide as well as active transport.

yay let's demand how they use the breadcrumbs

While it's not the outcome that many in Labor and Greens were hoping for, it is at least (very likely to be) the first time the LNP has lost a seat since they took control of the Council in the early 2000's. This could very well be the beginning of a continual decline for the LNP council. Time will tell.

They have also lost some ground in the first preference votes in a handful of seats which makes it even more glaringly obvious that if it weren't for OPV they would be out of a majority. OPV is a very big hurdle for the Greens or Labor to overcome since the votes are split between them. For Labor/Greens to come out on top, they need to have at least a combined 55-60% of the first preference votes to stand a chance once votes begin to be exhausted. This particularly is something which strikes me as unfair and not within the principle of a democratic society. We are ending up with less representation for the majority under an OPV system.

Current situation with the wards.  This could change during the day.

According to the ABC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az

three wards in doubt:

1. Calamvale ALP Likely

2. Northgate LNP Ahead

3. Paddington GREENS Ahead

Present ward count, () if wards go with trends at present:

LNP 17 (18) + 1 LM

ALP 4  (5)

GREENS 1 (2)

Independent 1

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Former BCC makeup:

Liberal National 19 + 1 (LM)
Labor    5 
Greens    1 
Independent 1 

ABC News --> Greens swing at Brisbane City Council election hurts Labor's voter base more than the LNP

Quote from: ozbob on March 18, 2024, 08:58:01 AMCurrent situation with the wards.  This could change during the day.

According to the ABC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az

three wards in doubt:

1. Calamvale ALP Likely

2. Northgate LNP Ahead

3. Paddington GREENS Ahead

Present ward count, () if wards go with trends at present:

LNP 17 (18) + 1 LM

ALP 4  (5)

GREENS 1 (2)

Independent 1

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Former BCC makeup:

Liberal National 19 + 1 (LM)
Labor    5 
Greens    1 
Independent 1 

Time for proportional representation as it always has been

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results/party-totals

 

https://x.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1769924758316184026?s=20

Quote from: ozbob on March 18, 2024, 12:41:02 PMABC News --> Greens swing at Brisbane City Council election hurts Labor's voter base more than the LNP

Yeah I've seen a number of Greens vollies commenting "We got a fantastic swing... and it pretty much all came from Labor; we need to do better at talking to LNP voters."
Usually a comment about car-brain is in the vicinity!

The media are calling the Greens Labor alliance Glabor.

Vote 1 Glabor, that's what it boils down to  🤪😂

What's the other party called? Libonats?

I wonder if the outcome would have been the same if it were compulsory preferential voting?

It's a bit of the rort as LNP have the popular vote yet Glabor get ahead with preference deals.

Quote from: verbatim9 on March 19, 2024, 16:10:00 PMThe media are calling the Greens Labor alliance Glabor.

Vote 1 Glabor, that's what it boils down to  🤪😂

So the media are given a non-existent entity a name? Why?

It's worth thinking about. If the inner cities go Green Team then that just leaves Red and Blue contests in the suburbs.

A coalition deal between Red/Green could work well for both.

It would allow Red Team to withdraw resources from the inner city and redeploy them in the suburbs.

A Green/Red coalition already operates in the ACT and has done so since 2001. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor%E2%80%93Greens_coalition

Only one ward in doubt now, Northgate. LNP marginally ahead

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az

LNP 17 (18) + 1 LM

ALP 5

GREENS 2

Independent 1

So overall compared to the previous council make up, Greens have gained one more ward, Labor same at 5 Wards, and LNP have lost one ward.

Former BCC makeup:

Liberal National 19 + 1 (LM)
Labor    5
Greens    1
Independent 1

Quote from: verbatim9 on March 19, 2024, 16:32:59 PMI wonder if the outcome would have been the same if it were compulsory preferential voting?

It's a bit of the rort as LNP have the popular vote yet Glabor get ahead with preference deals.

CPV would not benefit the LNP.

If a candidate can't get 50% + 1, then they don't have a majority and shouldn't be the victor because more people have voted for others collectively.  It's that simple.

As counting continues, two wards in doubt now, Northgate & Marchant.

LNP likely in Northgate, LNP just ahead in Marchant (203 votes) from Labor.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az

LNP 16 (18) + 1 LM

ALP 5

GREENS 2

Independent 1

Former BCC makeup:

Liberal National 19 + 1 (LM)
Labor    5
Greens    1
Independent 1

2028 is going to be interesting. 

The 8 most marginal LNP wards could all fall about 50-50 to Labor and the Greens.  I think it would be more probable the Greens pick up 4 wards than the ALP do, it appears even half the swing recorded at this election for the Greens would be enough to knock them over the edge.  If all 8 did fall, or say 4 Green and 3 ALP, that would result in 8-9 ALP and 6 Greens, and the 2 parties would then have control of Council between themselves, with or without the mayoralty.

This would require the Greens to collect Walter Taylor, Coorparoo, Enoggera and Central.  A uniform swing of at least 4% or even a bit less might be enough.  The ALP would need to hold Calamvale having just taken it, recover Wynnum-Manly, and take Northgate, Marchant and maybe Holland Park.  I don't see the ALP having enough in the tank to take anything else off the LNP, and they won't take the Greens 2 existing and 4 probably seats.  Runcorn maybe but that would require like a 6% swing.

If Labor want to be in with a shot at the mayoralty, they have got to nominate somebody a lot earlier and they have to do a lot more and more visible work.

Interesting to compare to the Gold Coast - in Division 2 (vacated by the incumbent), the successful candidate was out there working the division for about a year in advance and so picked up about 74-75% of the vote.  Div 2 was a bit exceptional as the incumbent announced they were out around a year in advance, but in all cases there the incumbent retired the person likely to pick up the division is the one who started first and took it seriously.

Marchant is now LNP retain. LNP still ahead in Northgate.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az

LNP 17 (18) + 1 LM

ALP 5

GREENS 2

Independent 1

LNP still ahead in Northgate ward.

LNP still ahead in Northgate ward.

New BCC:

LNP 18 + 1 LM

ALP 5

GREENS 2

Independent 1

Former BCC makeup:

Liberal National 19 + 1 (LM)
Labor    5
Greens    1
Independent 1

So LNP lose 1 ward, the Greens gain 1 ward.

Solid swings but not many ward wins - unpacking the results of the 2024 Brisbane City Council election

https://www.jonathansri.com/2024bccelectionresults

Couriermail --> Brisbane City Council election results declared $

QuoteThe "Greenwave" that the minor party had boasted would wash away the LNP's control of Brisbane City Council has officially failed to materialise, with Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner still king of City Hall.

The formal declaration of the March 23 election on Thursday confirmed the LNP lost just one of its 19 wards at the election, and will still dominate the 26-member chamber.

Labor won five wards as the Greens doubled their count to two, with Independent Nicole Johnston retaining her Tennyson ward for a fourth term.  ...

https://x.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1775995489592451251

FINAL

New BCC:

LNP 18 + 1 LM

ALP 5

GREENS 2

Independent 1

Former BCC makeup:

Liberal National 19 + 1 (LM)
Labor    5
Greens    1
Independent 1

So LNP lose 1 ward, the Greens gain 1 ward.  Labor remain at 5 wards.

And our Half Arsed legacy continues

Brisbanetimes --> 'Inexcusable mistake' forces redo of first Brisbane council meeting $

QuoteBrisbane City Hall hosted its first meeting of the new council on Tuesday, driving a steady stream of the elected officials posting photos to mark their swearing-in.

Except it was a false start.

Unknown to all involved, the declarations of office read were missing a line about the code of conduct, raising questions about their validity and the decisions that followed.

Councillors will now hold a do-over meeting next Tuesday, according to documents sent out by outgoing chief executive Colin Jensen on Thursday, in which he apologised on behalf of the council and described the situation as an "administrative error". ...