RAIL - Back On Track Forum

The existence of bus bays does not automatically suggest a decent feeder service.

One only needs to look at Coomera when it first opened, terribly service frequency and poor span. It's better now, but still room for improvement IMO, particularly span.

Or Bridgeman downs road. Bus bays and 0 services.

Quote from: #Metro on March 02, 2024, 06:41:00 AM- Very likely 30 minute base frequency, which will reduce the time savings component of the BCR
- Rollingstock requirements?

Things that can be done
- Get TransPerth/WA PTA in as a consultant or reviewer (they built Mandurah line) (pay them)
- Build more trains (consider a top-up order in with the WA factory)

Urgh. Transperth wont do anything. You can have all the studies and outside people doing consulting but that doesn't mean tmr will adopt it. As I've detailed before QR has wanted ATP for SEQ area since the 90's (this is why IMU100/IMU120 had ATP provisions as a test bed for interurban services before suburban rollout - there was also the kicker of building the Gold Coast line single track for cheaper construction costs and upgrading to atp before duplicating the line - only problem was housing around expanded rapidly to the point SMU220 were being modified for faster running) but treasury has knocked it back and not just once. Even with this extension and other extensions we have seen in the past single track designs. Internally QR have had dual track designs for most of its new infrastructure but external funding/outside politics has made them toe the single track line publicly because in the study/business case someone did a single track vs dual track theory.

FaresFare might be able to show you a copy of the original study from the late 90's that said the spur was doable as single track but recommended dual track to sustain future operations. When the line is a priority such as the NCL we do see some better designs come out such as a realigned 160kph quad to Nambour but the state still ends up with the final say as they are paying for it. We have seen this on many projects where political interference plays a part but also political policy.

And scrap any trains in Perth theory. You clearly don't know anything about it. If you did you would update it and edit that part out.

I very much doubt it will be finished by 2032 unless K2B is delayed. There simply isn't enough labour and other resources like machinery available.

LNP needs to come clean on what it will cut elsewhere, to achieve rail to Maroocydore by 2032.

You guys all forget that the 600 exists already goes via Caloundra.

So thats at least one high frequency feeder guaranteed.

Route 600 is the coast's most frequent service with buses arriving every 15 minutes, most of the day, seven days a week.
Starts at 5:05am Mondays (from Maroochydore) and finishes at 10:20pm Thursdays and 2:10am Fridays (from Maroochydore) and 3:10am Weekends (from Maroochydore).

Quote from: achiruel on March 02, 2024, 10:21:41 AMI very much doubt it will be finished by 2032 unless K2B is delayed. There simply isn't enough labour and other resources like machinery available.

LNP needs to come clean on what it will cut elsewhere, to achieve rail to Maroocydore by 2032.

And what about trains, stabling and their other associated projects? As you mentioned something has to be cut to pay for all this.

^^Recently caught this service from Maroochydore to Caloundra. While good it still takes a while. A train would be better to get to A and B reducing overall travel times.This would be more appealing to the general public rather than sitting on a bus for extended periods.

Parliament of Australia - Hansard

https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F27591%2F0244%22

26th February 2024  ADJOURNMENT

Sunshine Coast: Rail

Mr TED O'BRIEN (Fairfax) (19:40): Only a couple of days ago the Queensland Labor Party leadership stood in front of cameras and celebrated what effectively is the halving of a rail project to Maroochydore for twice the price and despite the fact that they don't even have that project funded. It's only a Labor Party that is brazen enough to try to wrap up a failure and call it a victory.

There is a single project that should be the centrepiece of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, and that is a passenger rail line connecting the Brisbane CBD with the Maroochydore CBD on the Sunshine Coast. This project has been under development for seven years. It was in 2017 that the then coalition government announced a faster rail project, with $20 million to be spread across only three business cases that would connect a region to a capital city. At that time it was crystal clear, because of the development on the Sunshine Coast, that we needed to get infrastructure ahead of the population curve.

I took the time then, due to that initiative of the coalition government, to meet with the Lord Mayor of Brisbane, to meet with the mayor of Moreton Bay, to meet with the mayor of the Sunshine Coast and also to meet with the mayor of Noosa to encourage them to put politics to one side and unite around the idea of connecting the Sunshine Coast coastal strip to Brisbane. I also met with the then Minister for Transport and Main Roads, Mark Bailey, and said to him, 'Let's put our politics to one side. This is good for South-East Queensland; let's work together.' And there was a unity ticket on that. I was able to put together a syndicate that then put on the table a compelling value proposition that won the day. It was one of three projects chosen that received $5 million from the federal government, with an expectation from the state of matching the funding, fifty-fifty.

But then Queensland Labor attempted to thwart the effort by refusing to contribute its $5 million. Instead it said, 'We'll give you some data and we'll engage. That's worth $5 million.' So we took that, on their honour, and we said, 'Alright. You're not going to put cash on the table. Let's get on with it.' Sure enough, we did a business case. The business case was well received. That business case, North Coast Connect, had the Queensland DTMR at the working level and at the governance level, using their methodology. When it got to Infrastructure Australia, Infrastructure Australia said, 'We're happy to put this on the priority list, but we need the Queensland government—they own the rail network—to be the proponent.' The Queensland government refused to do that, slowing the process yet again. Yet again Queensland Labor refused. Federal Labor were a complete waste of space. They never spoke up and never helped on this project whatsoever.

In came the bid for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, and we unashamedly used that bid to put this project at the centre of transport infrastructure required. Labor eventually said, 'You know what? We understand the need for getting rail up to the Sunshine Coast, but we don't want to do this fast rail thing. We don't want fast rail. It needs to be the same signalling, the same rolling stock and, at the end of the day, the same network as Queensland Rail has today.' Based on that, I put a deal on the table and said, 'I tell you what. Let's do just that. Let's have a connection between Beerwah and Maroochydore, and we'll do those three conditions so long as it is designed in a way to accommodate fast rail in the future.' Eventually they said, 'That sounds good.' We got $1.6 billion. The member for Fisher and I confirmed $1.6 billion, 50 per cent of the project cost. What did Labor then do? 'Uh-oh. Don't know. We've got to think about it—back to the drawing board.' The Albanese government came in. They scrapped the fifty-fifty -partnership with the Queensland government for the Olympic Games and Paralympic Games and suddenly there was an over two-year delay. Now the price has gone up from $3.2 billion to get us to Maroochydore to $7 billion to only do one of three phases, only to Caloundra. Why Caloundra? The state government wants to retain the seat of Caloundra at the election. So here's the deal. They doubled the price and halved the length of the track. Then they turned around and said: 'Guess what? We don't even have enough money to do it.' But they're patting themselves on the back. Thanks, Labor, for nothing.

https://x.com/camerondickqld/status/1763703926598357148?s=20

In Sydney they started the metro extension from Chatswood to Bankstown in 2017 and it's due to be fully open in 2025. That is 8 years and a significant distance and will provide in total 88 km of driverless trains across the Sydney train network. If this is possible to do in 8 years, so can a rail spur to Maroochydore with in the same timeframe.

Works would need to start this year though from Beerburrum to achieve such a goal, I reckon.

From Ted O'Brien speech..

"The Albanese government came in. They scrapped the fifty-fifty -partnership with the Queensland government for the Olympic Games and Paralympic Games."

I wasn't aware of this!
I missed that announcement by the Feds.
(I'm guessing it was never announced per se)

  state of affairs. You get who you vote for unfortunately.

I was pretty sure we had a better deal under the previous LNP Federal Government.

The coalition agreement was for 50-50 funding under the Olympics infrastructure arrangement.
If that has been scrapped, perhaps it allows for greater than 50% funding by the feds, yet if that was the case the state wouldn't be asking for $1.1 billion, they'd ask for much more. This assumes a $5.4 billion DSCL cost.

It's ironic because the coalition brought back the 80-20 funding arrangement in 2014 [for a given criteria].
Labor had gotten rid of it pre-2013 and made it 50-50.

Talk about swings and roundabouts, I can imagine the public servants in Canberra must have a template for both standards hidden somewhere in a filing cabinet.

That adjournment speech of Mr O'Brien from the Australian Parliament Hansard is somewhat disturbing.

Quote...  The business case was well received. That business case, North Coast Connect, had the Queensland DTMR at the working level and at the governance level, using their methodology. When it got to Infrastructure Australia, Infrastructure Australia said, 'We're happy to put this on the priority list, but we need the Queensland government—they own the rail network—to be the proponent.' The Queensland government refused to do that, slowing the process yet again. Yet again Queensland Labor refused. Federal Labor were a complete waste of space. They never spoke up and never helped on this project whatsoever. ...

It would appear that the North Coast Connect Business Case was actually acceptable to IA assuming what Mr O'Brien said is fact (no real reason to doubt otherwise, lying in Parliament is an offence), but the Qld Government (Mr Bailey et al) did not want to play ball. This has been more deception along the way.

If the LNP did form Government after the State Elections in 2024, could they deliver the branch line from Beerwah to Maroochydore?

Yes they could.  CRR will be finished, there will sufficient civil engineering resources available in my view, But it would be important to keep a continuous construction line in train,  B2B > B2M. 

I think the really major obstacle is the outcome of the business case by IA, and the funding.

To do the line through to Maroochydore cost would be somewhere between 15-20$ Billion based on stage 1 costs.
It is for this reason I think the most likely outcome, not withstanding the outcome of the October State election is stage one only.  LNP might be able to get to Birtinya if they can find the moolah.

But as we know the train fleet situation is precarious. Once that is made clear to an incoming Government they may not be so keen.

Years and years of delays and the associated political bungling are now hurting big time.

Big time. Yes the fleet situation is quite a unique one that really limits how you can deliver infrastructure quickly as they are both guilty of contributing to it. If they promise to fast track infrastructure with dates then you know something is a miss.

Both the LNP and current government have saved some money in various forms depending how they look at it (lnp ordered DOO trains reconfigured for non DOO operations which meant hundreds of extra psa required to run them/labor saving some money by not future proofing the fleet despite being known well in advance of the NGR rollout, fleet replacement stages and crr) but with all the rail projects coming up "because of the olympics" it's really highlighting these problems (bet they are glad inland rail is dead and no Beaudesert line haha) and limiting frequency upgrades (the issue isn't about current rollingstock levels for off peak now but when new lines such as CRR opens).

There will be some reprieve soon once NGR DAA works are done but then comes ETCS for NGR and the remainder of the 160/260 refurbs but the 100/120 are then up. And it's not a straight fix as ordering more trains. You still have to replace the old horses and then where do you put them? Take the Dakabin stabling project. It's not a little bit of track and happy days you have a stabling yard but you have to look at a triple and bridge replacements. There are others that have smaller problems such as Rosewood, Caboolture, Thornside, Varsity Lakes and a bunch more but still these cost money.

A sad state of affairs really.

From the North Coast Connect business case evaluation summary..

Total Costs $3,090.4m
Benefit-cost ratio (BCR) 0.47 

Quote from: Fares_Fair on March 03, 2024, 00:37:04 AMFrom the North Coast Connect business case evaluation summary..

Total Costs $3,090.4m
Benefit-cost ratio (BCR) 0.47 

IA https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/north-coast-connect

Evaluation Summary

Growing travel demand across Brisbane, Moreton Bay and the Sunshine Coast is expected to place
significant pressure on the existing transport network. A number of problems are expected without
rail investment, including slower regional and urban growth, rail infrastructure constraints affecting
efficient rail operations, and unsustainable reliance on road transport leading to congestion and
safety issues. Infrastructure Australia recognises the need for additional investment in this part of
the Queensland rail network, with the Beerburrum to Nambour Rail Upgrade Project added to the
Infrastructure Priority List in February 2018.

The North Coast Connect proposal aims to reduce rail journey times Brisbane and the Sunshine
Coast by around 25 minutes, from 75 to 50 minutes. It includes a new dedicated rail track along
the existing North Coast Line (NCL) between Brisbane and Beerwah, and a new rail corridor to
connect coastal population centres including Maroochydore, Kawana and Caloundra.

Our review found that the project aligns with government policies to support regional connectivity,
reduce urban congestion, and improve sustainability by providing an attractive alternative to
private vehicle trips. However, the North Coast Connect project is not currently identified in
Queensland's transport strategy, and it is unclear how the proposal aligns with the Queensland
Government's passenger rail plans. The corridor for the Beerwah to Maroochydore section of this
proposal is protected by the Queensland Government for future public transport options.
The proponent's business case reports that the costs of the project will outweigh the social,
economic and environmental benefits, with a benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 0.47 and a net present
value (NPV) of -$1,651.5 million (7% discount rate). The proposal estimates that the wider
economic benefits (WEBs) may increase the total benefits by 6.2%.

The challenging terrain in sections of the proposed route, the presence of environmentally sensitive
sites within the project area, and the level of design detail present project delivery risks. The
proponent has indicated that they will not be leading the delivery of the project and has not
confirmed who will be responsible for delivery. This contributes to project delivery risks.
Based on the business case and evidence available, Infrastructure Australia has not included the
North Coast Connect proposal on the Infrastructure Priority List at this time. We would welcome
the opportunity to review a revised business case that includes a stronger case for the proposal, a
balance of the costs and benefits, and which illustrates how the delivery risks can be managed.

https://x.com/Jeffrey_Addison/status/1764852667116118472?s=20

Humm, assuming the LNP gets into power in October 2024, they are unlikely to accelerate construction of the Direct Sunshine Coast Line, because it might not be possible. Under the LNP, the line would get to Caloundra by 2032. AND the LNP would have to run the election gauntlet in 2028 before then. Provided they don't stuff up, most governments are good for two terms, but obviously David Chrisafulli hopes his government will be re-elected in 2032 as well (off the back of a successful Olympic and Paralympic Games). What Mr C can do is step up planning, land acquisition and business case for the line to (1) Birtinya and (2) to Maroochydore. In this way, construction of the line beyond Caloundra continues beyond 2032 to when? .... 2036? ... at which time an ALP Government would be elected. And it might have different priorities -- like railway lines to marginal Labor seats.

Quote from: StillwaterHumm, assuming the LNP gets into power in October 2024, they are unlikely to accelerate construction of the Direct Sunshine Coast Line, because it might not be possible.

Fast-tracking the project when materials/labour are short or expensive and while there might not be industry capacity to absorb the project could cause a cost explosion on top of the existing one.

Even if the full length of the line could be built and paid for, we might not have the trains to run full length services to Maroochydore anyway.

A good move would be to bring forward sorting out a temporary express bus option to extend the reach of the railway.

FYI project materials are already fast tracked to some degree. It's the standard norm in most government projects now. The problem with going down this route however is that it's taken into account all the way back in the design phase which can impact on the final design. Compromised projects while the builder gets a bigger profit.

And as I've highlighted already rollingstock is an issue but not just from the cost of additional trains but their side projects such as stabling yards and additional infrastructure to support them.

If you try to fast track everything you are going to end up with an overall extremely high and potentially prohibitive cost. And you start to run the gauntlet of multiple projects potentially having flawed or severely compromised designs.

Infrastructure Australia: Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line

https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/direct-sunshine-coast-rail-line

Couriermail --> Federal Liberal party fail to follow David Crisafulli's Sunshine Coast rail line promise

QuoteQueensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli's plan to get the Sunshine Coast rail line to Maroochydore by the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games has taken a major blow, with his federal counterpart not willing to make the same guarantee.

Earlier this week Mr Crisafulli promised to get the Sunshine Coast Direct Rail Line from Beerwah all the way to Maroochydore by 2032 if the LNP was to win government at the state election in October. ...

Did Crisafulli put a timeline on his promise ... to Maroochydore by 2032?

Quote from: Stillwater on March 07, 2024, 11:14:06 AMDid Crisafulli put a timeline on his promise ... to Maroochydore by 2032?

Has the LNP specifically said they would build this as a rail line? I have no faith they have any intention of making good on this promise. I'd be far more likely to believe that they would repurpose the corridor for a freeway.

Quote from: Stillwater on March 07, 2024, 11:14:06 AMDid Crisafulli put a timeline on his promise ... to Maroochydore by 2032?

They were careful with their words.
They said it COULD be done by 2032, not WOULD be done.

A summary of the business case is being made available soon.

Government Statement

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/99856

Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line business case summary released

7th March 2024

Minister for Transport and Main Roads and Minister for Digital Services
The Honourable Bart Mellish

. A summary of the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line project business case has been released publicly.

. The business case recommended staging the project. The first stage would see over half of the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line built before 2032.

. Technical details released in the business case summary outline the challenges and complexities considered when developing the cost estimates and delivery timeframes for the project.

The Queensland Government has published a summary of the business case for the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line, releasing new details about the project. The summary includes further information about the technical solution, construction challenges and cost estimates.

The proposed line to Maroochydore is 37.8km of new dual track, narrow gauge rail line through greenfield and highly urbanised environments.

Other features include:

Approximately 17 kilometres of rail is raised including viaducts and 24 bridges, to minimise flooding and environmental impacts, and to pass over local and arterial roads.
A 1.2 kilometre tunnel at Little Mountain to minimise environmental and community impacts.
Six new stations at Nirimba (Aura), Caloundra, Aroona, Birtinya, Mountain Creek and Maroochydore with an upgrade also planned for Beerwah station.
Relocation and protection of major utilities such as power, water and sewer.
Construction in constrained urban environments.
Project cost estimates have also been released for each stage, with construction to Birtinya expected to cost approximately $8.4 billion and construction to Maroochydore approximately $12 billion.

The summary document confirms that construction of the full 37.8 kilometre rail line to Maroochydore would take at least a decade. It also shows that unless the line was built in stages, none of the stations would open to passengers prior to 2032.

The business case recommends a staged delivery of the rail line. Staging takes into account the length of the corridor, affordability and market capacity. Building in stages will not only open sections of the rail line years earlier, but creates a progressive pipeline of thousands of local jobs and helps ease construction impacts on the local community.

The business case tested staging to both Calounda and Birtinya by 2032, ultimately recommending staging to Birtinya. Although recommended, the summary notes the complex construction and engineering activities in building to Birtinya, presenting risks to the project cost and timeframes, which could prevent the rail line opening by 2032. Delivery alone between Caloundra and Birtinya is another 7.5km, including 4km of track on viaducts and 6 bridges, and building a 1.2km tunnel.

Based on this advice, the Miles Government has committed to delivering Stage 1, including building rail to Caloundra by 2032, protecting the revised alignment to Maroochydore, and further planning, environmental investigations and design. The corridor to Caloundra requires zero homes to be resumed.

Stage One also includes going to market to test the risk to construction timeframes and costs, for the section from Caloundra to Birtinya. If fully funded, in partnership with the Australian Government, Stage 1 would see at least 19km built prior to 2032 – more than half the rail line.

Stage 1 is expected to cost between $5.5 billion to $7 billion, with cost estimates to be finalised following further design development, market engagement and procurement.

The Miles Government has committed an initial $2.75 billion to deliver the first stage of the project, which will require matching funding from the Federal Government before works can get underway. Stage 1 works are expected to commence in 2026, targeting completion by 2032. The Federal Government has previously committed $1.6 billion towards the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line. The business case has been issued to Infrastructure Australia for their review and assessment.

The full business case cannot be released as it contains information that is commercial in confidence.  Releasing the full business case would prejudice the procurement process, and could influence commercial negotiations.

Quotes attributable to Transport and Main Roads Minister Bart Mellish:

"Direct Sunshine Coast Rail will change the way people travel - making a trip from Caloundra to Brisbane at least 45 minutes faster than a car in peak

"With the number of trips on the Bruce Highway set to increase by 49% by 2046, residents in the region need a direct, fast and reliable connection to the South-East.

"Direct Sunshine Coast Rail will not only help ease congestion, but will also help unlock future housing development on the Sunshine Coast.

"The business case recommends staging and we have committed funding to deliver the first stage, more than half the length of the full rail line, with possible extension to Birtinya subject to procurement activities.

"This is a complex project and the business case was an important part of the planning process. It sets out how the project should be delivered and identifies the complex engineering challenges along the rail line.

"Stage One alone involves building 19km of track. 7km of that track is elevated rail on viaducts, including 10 bridges, crossing roads, creeks and the Bruce Highway.

"Stage two is even more complex, involving construction of another 7.5km of track between Caloundra and Birtinya, including a 1.2km tunnel at Little Mountain.

"Again, 4km of that is elevated rail on viaducts including 6 bridges, due to the number of creek crossings and low-lying terrain. So we will require further advice from leading infrastructure construction companies on the approach, materials and timeframes to deliver this section of the line.

"The Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line is another record investment in Queensland's rail network from our government, building on the multi-billion dollar rail revolution currently underway.

"Through the delivery of Cross River Rail, we are removing the bottleneck in Brisbane's CBD and creating opportunities to provide better rail services to some of South East Queensland's fastest growing regions.

"With better, more connected rail options available we hope commuters will leave the car at home, reducing congestion and lowering transport emissions on the path to net zero".

To read the business case summary, visit www.yoursay-projects.tmr.qld.gov.au/direct-sunshine-coast-rail

Fast facts:

The Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line is a proposed 37.8km rail extension between Beerwah and Maroochydore to increase public transport opportunities and improve connectivity to Moreton Bay, Brisbane and beyond.

Stage 1 will deliver 19km of rail between Beerwah and Caloundra (over halfway), with possible delivery of Birtinya by 2032 pending procurement activities and advice from leading engineering construction companies.

The business case evaluated technical requirements for the full rail line including 7 stations (including a proposed future station at Beerwah East), 17km of structures, a 1.2km tunnel at Little Mountain and 2 new stabling facilities. 17km of elevated structures accounts for over 40% of the corridor.

The business case has determined an optimal realignment of the corridor between Beerwah and Maroochydore, which enables rail speeds of up 160km/h. The current trains can and do travel 140km/h, their maximum speed.

The realignment aims to minimise environmental impact and reduce curves in the line to allow for faster train speeds. The new corridor will be protected in 2024.

Over 80% of community feedback received during community consultation in 2023 was supportive of the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line project, helping inform the business case.

ENDS

Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line
Business Case Summary March 2024

https://hdp-au-prod-app-qldtmr-yoursay-files.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/9517/0971/7651/Detailed_business_case_summary_March_2024.pdf

Facebook ...

QuoteIn 2010, a Strategic Assessment of Service Requirements (SASR) for the project was undertaken
indicating that investment in rail was not warranted prior to 2031.

   

Thanks Anna. 

Would be an interesting FOI to read that 2010 SASR.

What is hillarious is that this document now says:

QuoteNow, almost 23 years after the completion of the CAMCOS work, the Sunshine Coast boasts the
second highest car ownership in Australia. It has developed into a region that is highly reliant on
private vehicle travel and has limited competitive or attractive public transport alternative for those
wishing (or needing) to travel between the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay or Brisbane. To travel
between Brisbane and key growth areas and destinations to the east of the Sunshine Coast via
public transport requires a minimum of a 2.5 hour trip.

So basically, they did a study in 2010 saying no rail was needed till 2031, and suprised face, this was the result.

QuoteA 6.7km viaduct structure carries the rail line through the wetland areas between Bells Creek and
Caloundra

That'll cost a bit!

https://x.com/railbotforum/status/1765613266347458690?s=20

https://x.com/railbotforum/status/1765613422228684811?s=20

I spoke to Jade Richards at Ch7 Sunshine Coast regarding this document release.
I thank the state government for doing so.
IV was at 3:15pm this afternoon.
It will air tonight

Interestingly, this business case says it was also built upon previous planning work in CAMCOS and the North Coast Connect business case, p7.
Sort of puts paid to former Transport Minister Mark Bailey's public assertions on the matter.

Also its pretty rich that in 2010 the SARS said it wasn't warranted, so the decision to do that rests solely with the then Bligh Government and the Rudd Government, which goes against claims that it was because the federal government wouldn't fund it.

Shows just how mad Transport Planning is in this State. Closely followed by the "There is enough medium density zoning in SEQ" assumption.  All wrong and all left us up ship creek

Wow. Page 25 shows all BCRs are well below 0.5 and that is true even at a very favourable 4% discount rate.