RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Operating costs doesn't come into it. Every government has different ways of project costings. Another possible cost increase reason is guaranteed materials which we have seen in other tmr/state government contracts where they are willing to pay more to have it guaranteed. Bruce Highway at Gympie has this aswell. Similar to a pizza delivery where you pay a few extra dollars and you get it within 20 mins. Just on a far bigger scale.

Didn't they factor in operational costs with Cross River Rail? I understood they did.

QuoteI wonder if the TMR quote includes overall and projected operational costs on top of the infrastructure costs. e.g. New trains and the cost to operate them across the new line?

I think it forms part of the business case BCR and NPV calculation, but not part of the headline construction cost. Because the benefit part of BCR involves assigning a dollar value to the time saved by passengers which in turn hinges on the operations. I know this is going into the business side of things, but it matters because no money/net benefit means no project.

When considering the Redcliffe line, the initial construction proposal was rejected because of the operational costs. It was only because then PM Julia Gillard came up with money that it all started to fall into place.

QuoteWA may have a different methodology of calculating these costs without adding projected operational costs?

Would be interesting to know the details. A 50% cost difference would suggest something pretty large was being left out if that were the case.

Even the recent Perth Airport Line seemed good value for money, and that didn't run in a road median, it was tunneled.

Two basic facts:

1.  Business case has to be supported by IA.

2.  Federal Government has to increase their share of funding.

None of these are guaranteed positive outcomes at this time.

I am not overly optimistic that even Beerwah to Caloundra will be built by 2032. 

Don't forget we are still waiting on Beerburrum <> Beerwah duplication (cut back from Landsborough).

Quote from: OzbobTwo basic facts:

1.  Business case has to be supported by IA.

2.  Federal Government has to increase their share of funding.

None of these are guaranteed positive outcomes at this time.

The funding model also has seemed to change:

QuoteThe changes mean commonwealth funding will be allocated to an overarching project, or "corridor", instead of the states and territories coming to the federal government for each individual stage of the project.

Federal government to slash 50 infrastructure projects due to cost blowouts
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/16/federal-government-to-slash-82-infrastructure-projects-due-to-cost-blowouts

Although a Priority No.1 project, I cannot imagine minister Catherine King MP being impressed by reading into the lengthy and delayed project history and being asked for another $1.1b. She had just cut ~ 50 projects due to cost escalations this year.

If Minister King does approve, it is likely a condition will be imposed that any future cost escalations will be borne by the Queensland Government. Given that a State Election is due in October, Premier Steven Miles isn't really in a good position to refuse that.

The effect of such a condition would be to further delay the later stages of the project IMO.

Just want to recognise here that Fares_Fare was on the money with regard to staging and delivery timelines. 

BrisbaneTimes article just posted:

$2.75b announced for Qld's 'next big rail project' – but it will need much more ($)
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/2-75b-announced-for-qld-s-next-big-rail-project-but-it-will-need-much-more-20240225-p5f7lr.html

Media Release

Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line on track for delivery
Published Today at 09:59 AM

JOINT STATEMENT

Premier
The Honourable Steven Miles

Deputy Premier, Treasurer and Minister for Trade and Investment
The Honourable Cameron Dick

Minister for Transport and Main Roads and Minister for Digital Services
The Honourable Bart Mellish

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/99782

Proposed staging

Fair bit of media interest as expected in the DSCRL.

I have / will be doing interviews with 7 and 10 News.  Interview with 4BC News.

FF is talking to ABC Sunshine Coast.

I have also done an interview with the Pineapple digital magazine http://www.thepineapple.net.au/

^^Yeah saw the comments on the CM article. Hundreds upon hundreds!!!

The Pineapple --> Sunny Coast rail line from Beerwah to Caloundra possible by 2032

A BIG weekend announcement.
A request for more federal funding.
(Stay tuned for the Federal/State staged funding squabble to re-emerge)
A project cut back from reaching its destination.

Where have we heard ALL this before?



Answer:
#B2N #rail Beerburrum to Landsborough..then cut back to Beerwah.

#B2N hasn't started after over 5 and a half years after its 9 June 2018 announcement.

Today it is still a single track from Beerburrum northwards to and beyond Landsborough... and B2N is required to bring the duplicated track to Beerwah - where the #DSCL starts.


You can understand why I am sadly, entirely sceptical that this govt will ever get it done, or even started.

https://x.com/StevenJMiles/status/1761542458046042145?s=20

It's going to be very interesting Monday when Minister Catherine King gets to the office and has a chance to respond to all of this.

I'd also wonder why it couldn't wait until Monday for announcement?

Does the figure include B2N or is that extra?

/\ That'd be extra.

Ozbob interview Ch.7 

Thank you for the post #Metro.

Nice work.
Thank you Robert.

Accurate reporting by Ch7 also.
Great interview and story.

Couriermail -->  Sunshine Coast MP's blast state government over rail announcement $

QuoteLocal politicians have blasted the state Labor government over their announcement of the direct Sunshine Coast rail line, saying it's a "slap in the face" for residents.

Local politicians have blasted the state Labor government over their announcement of the direct Sunshine Coast rail line, saying it's a "slap in the face" for residents.

The state government announced $2.75bn for building the critical infrastructure, but conceded the cash will only get the tracks as far as Caloundra for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Premier Steven Miles revealed the project will be built in three stages – from Beerwah to Caloundra, then Birtinya, before ending in Maroochydore.

Only the first section to Caloundra can be built in time for the 2032 Games, though this is contingent on the federal government coming on board with an extra $1.1bn on top of its existing $1.6bn commitment.

A detailed business case has found Stage 1 will cost a whopping $5.5bn at least and up to $7bn at the highest end of estimates – more than double the $3.2bn initially earmarked by the Morrison government in 2022. ...

Couriermail --> Major Olympics legacy 'now dead' amid political infighting $

QuoteDespite a $3 billion cash injection, critics say one of the South-East Queensland's Olympics transport legacy projects is dead after years of delays by the State Government.

South-East Queensland's key Olympic Games transport legacy project "is now dead" following years of delays by the state government, critics argue.

The state government on Sunday trumpeted its pledge to pour almost $3bn to build a 19km, $5.5bn rail line extension from Beerwah to Caloundra – short of the original plan to extend the line north to Maroochydore.

The rail extension to Maroochydore, past the 2032 basketball preliminaries venue and where the satellite athletes' village will be located, was touted as a key piece of infrastructure deliverable as a result of Brisbane winning the Games.

While the corridor remains allocated, political infighting between the state and federal government had delayed progress on the project to beyond the 2032 Games – with both Labor and the LNP blaming the other side for the stall. ...

... Robert Dow of advocacy group Rail Back on Track, who first predicted the government would struggle to build major new rail infrastructure in the eight years before the Games, said it was a bittersweet announcement.

"It is disappointing that the original timelines for this project keep get pushed back," he said.

"We are however, grateful, that there is a chance for stage one prior to 2032." ...

https://x.com/10NewsFirstQLD/status/1761675397928767655?s=20

Infrastructure Strategy Implications

Minister Catherine King MP is going to be unimpressed with this latest Qld Gov ask. The per-km cost is coming in at around ~ $230-290 million/km for Stage 1. And there's still room for further escalation as it hasn't yet started.

A completed line could easily come in at $15-20b to Maroochydore.

Projects like Springfield and Flagstone extension, and certainly HSR etc now seem highly unlikely with enormous costs and lengthy funding battles involved.

Overall Strategy going forward should change, it has to. Focus on more mid-tier PT options, a larger number of smaller projects, the existing network over new extensions, and service over infrastructure.

The Sunshine Coast line is probably the last major rail extension we'll see in a while.

Whilst costs are clearly escalating and there are a lot of low hanging fruit transport projects (aka bus lanes),  Doing Nothing whilst blindly continuing to spend equally escalating $ on road widening projects is a key problem.

The transport budget is substantial but public transport gets short changed!!

I knew the price would be big but wasn't expecting it to be this bad. Contractors are just stretched so thin at the moment with so many projects going on the east coast that they can just name their price. I guess I need to get out of manufacturing and into transport.

I don't think this will make government apprehensive of pursuing more high cost projects though. The price tag acts as both a positive and negative for politicians as they can say they spent $X on transport instead of saying we built Y projects. As I'm sure many have pointed out, governments just love these huge infrastructure projects as they bring a lot of attention. Painting bus/bike lanes and increasing frequencies aren't sexy or visible enough to the general public for a government to view them as a priority. Much better to spend the money on a road widening project as everyone drives a car and can see we are making their commute easier with our 12 lane freeway.

Could it be a flaw of democracy that the optics and media attention are more important than the outcome? After visiting China and seeing their PT systems, makes me think maybe we would be better off in Chairman Albo's Workers' Paradise

Quote from: JonnoDoing Nothing whilst blindly continuing to spend equally escalating $ on road widening projects is a key problem.

It's a mode-neutral observation. Road projects are escalating too, and they will meet the same fate for the same reasons.

Our goal isn't to outspend the road lobby or their projects. As tempting as that may be.

PT has the advantage in this environment, as you can always improve service for low additional cost.

With road projects there is no service aspect. Either the road/interchange gets built or it's nothing. You can't increase the frequency or span of a road.

4BC Mornings: Does Brisbane need a train line to the Sunshine Coast?

https://www.4bc.com.au/podcast/does-brisbane-need-a-train-line-to-the-sunshine-coast/

Thanks FF for doing this interview.

(copy of the interview --> https://backontrack.org/docs/4bc/4bc_ja_26feb24.mp3 MP3 3.6MB)

Sunshine Coast News --> Heavy rail edges closer with $2.75b commitment but more federal money needed

QuoteThe state government has committed an initial $2.75 billion to deliver Stage 1 of the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line project, which would see a 19km dual track built from Beerwah to Caloundra.

But while the connection to Caloundra could be operational by 2032, it appears hopes of building it to Birtinya and Maroochydore before then have been dashed, with delivery to those destinations to be part of future stages.

The initial commitment of $2.75 billion will require matched funding from the federal government to enable construction to Caloundra by 2032.

The federal government has $1.6 billion on the table for the project but Sunshine Coast News reported in January it would further examine the details amid fears of a cost blow-out.

The 'funding envelope' for Stage 1 is expected to be between $5.5 billion and $7 billion, with final costs to be confirmed at the completion of the procurement phase. ...

Interview 26th February 2024 ABC Brisbane Mornings with host Steve Austin and Jeff Addison RBoT

Topic: DSCRL

Interview --> https://backontrack.org/docs/abcbris/abcbris_sa_ja_26feb24.mp3 MP3 5.2MB

Thanks for doing the interview FF.

https://x.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1761666876776595715?s=20

Quote from: #Metro on February 26, 2024, 09:44:17 AM

Quote from: JonnoDoing Nothing whilst blindly continuing to spend equally escalating $ on road widening projects is a key problem.

It's a mode-neutral observation. Road projects are escalating too, and they will meet the same fate for the same reasons.

Our goal isn't to outspend the road lobby or their projects. As tempting as that may be.

PT has the advantage in this environment, as you can always improve service for low additional cost.

With road projects there is no service aspect. Either the road/interchange gets built or it's nothing. You can't increase the frequency or span of a road.

All cities goals should be to out spend their road budget! It's not a neutral game!! One creates worse problems One solves them!! The money is there to invest in public transport projects Our politicians choose not to

With regards to the Federal Funding, my suspicion is that the Feds might take the $2.5 billion pledged towards the Brisbane Live arena over Roma Street (the cost for which is reportedly blowing out badly due to engineering challenges related to building it over that section of the railway line) and redirect it towards the line to Caloundra.

 

Certainly been a lot of media concerning the DSCRL and the announcement on the weekend.

Until the business case is assessed by IA (this can take some time), and then the Federal Government makes a decision on funding, probably nothing much will occur.

https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/direct-sunshine-coast-rail-line-planning hasn't been updated yet.

https://x.com/911hotfm/status/1761911730890772961?s=20

^

91.1 Hot FM --> Questions over new coast rail line plan

Quote... The former Transport Minister, Mark Bailey, told me in an interview last June that the Government was committed to building the 36km line all the way to Maroochydore and that it would be completed in time for the 2032 Olympics. ...

Anastasia Palaszczuk may have paid the ferryman to cross the River Styx to political oblivion – no doubt to be resurrected at sometime through an appointment to a government board or commission with a lucrative sinecure, but her DNA and that of Mark Bailey extends deep into the current government represented by Steven Miles and Bart Mellish.

Sunshine Coast residents have been here before ... with another election looming, the DSCL is dusted off to be a political football – yet again.

At least we now know the price Queensland Labor is prepared to pay to retain the seat of Caloundra – at least $5 billion and up to $7 billion. It would be good to see the business case to understand what is involved. It won't just be a railway line and stations. As with all new rail projects coming from TMR these days, there will be a fair bit of roadworks involved too. Should those be part of a railway project or subject to a different bucket of money?

And the same old snooker game that Mark Bailey used to play is being played again: "Queensland can build this if only the Federal Government gives us a truckload of additional money." So what is this announcement? It is not an announcement of a definite construction commitment. Having said that, with all of the delays, realistically a line can be provided to Caloundra only by 2032.

This is in breach of so many undertakings, but the one that matters is the commitment state Labor gave to the IOC that the railway line would be built to Birtinya (Kawana) by 2032. Queensland is in breach of its undertaking to the International Olympic Committee.

The proposed Caloundra Railway Station will be elevated – a very expensive terminus station to build. It will be sited next to the intersection of Caloundra Road and Nicklin Way, the Sunshine Coast's worst traffic location, effectively a car park in the morning and evening peak.  A Caloundra railway station would draw lots and lots more motorists wanting to catch a train. The car park would need to be enormous to meet the demand.

Logic says build the line to Birtinya, not just to Caloundra. Birtinya/Kawana would connect to the big SC Health Precinct (5000 jobs). The feds would be inclined to throw some extra money in if that were the case, because of the national economic benefit flowing from the growing precinct around the SC University Hospital. On the other hand, Queensland wants to develop the City of Aura. That's its priority.

I bet the first time Catherine King heard of Qld's extra demand on Canberra for money for the DSCL was from the news wire. (Not a good way to do business, Mr Miles.)

If I was the federal minister wishing to incentivise the Queensland Government, I would play state Labor at their own game ... agree to put an extra $1.1 billion into the DSCL plus some more, say another $2 billion from 2027-28, with the combined $3.1 billion directed to that section of the line between Caloundra and Birtinya. Not one more cent from Canberra to the Beerwah to Caloundra section.

State Labor has announced it, let it fund it, utilising the $1.6 billion in federal funding already on the table.

Quote from: StillwaterThe car park would need to be enormous to meet the demand.

Place a fee on the car park to meter demand. Then run a virtual train line using rapid transit buses from Caloundra to Maroochydore with virtual 'rail' stops spaced at rail station spacing intervals.

We suggested something similar with the Springfield line to Translink and got a 535 Rail Rocket bus when Richlands was built, which was replaced when the Springfield train line opened.

A stop gap measure will be needed given the situation announced on Saturday.

Yeah, much like the GC has the HF 700, but then also the 777 express to the Airport.

As a stopgap, have the existing 600 HF corridor, but complement it with the 666 😈
Express on Nicklin Way, bypassing Dicky Beach, then go Via Creekside Blvd And Kawana Way to service SCUH, and then After Kawana Shoppingworld, Express to Maroochydore via the Sunshine Motorway, bypassing Alex Headland.

Quote from: Jonno on February 26, 2024, 12:09:20 PM

Quote from: #Metro on February 26, 2024, 09:44:17 AM

Quote from: JonnoDoing Nothing whilst blindly continuing to spend equally escalating $ on road widening projects is a key problem.

It's a mode-neutral observation. Road projects are escalating too, and they will meet the same fate for the same reasons.

Our goal isn't to outspend the road lobby or their projects. As tempting as that may be.

PT has the advantage in this environment, as you can always improve service for low additional cost.

With road projects there is no service aspect. Either the road/interchange gets built or it's nothing. You can't increase the frequency or span of a road.

All cities goals should be to out spend their road budget! It's not a neutral game!! One creates worse problems One solves them!! The money is there to invest in public transport projects Our politicians choose not to

off topic a bit but saw this on Get Around Carbo Car-Free

" One of our lovely supporters kindly calculated the state funding pot by the TMR into %. I've converted them into dates so it's less abstract. See the pie chart.

If you started at 1 January and looked at the funding pot for the year until 31 December, here's when funding would come through:

• Roads - 66.6% of the year: September 2nd
• Rail - 29.9% from the 66.6% date: December 20th
• Buses - 1.7% from the 29.9% date: December 26th
• Footpath and Bikes 1% from the 1.7% date: December 30th
• Maritime -  0.6% from the 1% date: December 31st
• Multimodal - 0.2% from the 0.6% date: December 31st

That is:

Roads get all the funding until 2 September.

Rail gets most of what's left until 20 December.

Buses go to Boxing Day

Footpaths and bikes to the day before the following year.

Maritime and multimodal get funding NYE.

From 1 Jan the following year, it begins again:

Roads get all the funding until 2 September, rail until 20 December and buses, footpaths, bikes, ferries, multimodal (not sure what that is) get 10 days in total.

In case you wondered why we've got a bad bus service, bad footpaths, few bikes paths, here's your answer."

https://www.facebook.com/groups/getaroundcabocarfree/permalink/1092608998606766/?mibextid=W9rl1R

QuoteAs a stopgap, have the existing 600 HF corridor, but complement it with the 666 😈
Express on Nicklin Way, bypassing Dicky Beach, then go Via Creekside Blvd And Kawana Way to service SCUH, and then After Kawana Shoppingworld, Express to Maroochydore via the Sunshine Motorway, bypassing Alex Headland.

An excellent idea Gazza. Let's work together on this 

^ They actually had this for a short while in Route 601, although it didn't run as a high-frequency service.  2011 timetable attached.  Given an hourly frequency it was of no use for that purpose.  I'm not sure exactly when this ceased, but it was gone by July 2014 based on the network map I've just found dating from then.

On the Gold Coast, even with light rail all the way to border, I think there is still room for a limited stops bus to run from say OOL to Southport.  It would be a very limited stops service running at the same headway as light rail (say OOL, Palm Beach, Burleigh, Broadbeach South, Surfers Cavill Ave / Appel Park, and Southport), but light rail would still carry the bulk of the passenger movements up and down the corridor as most people wouldn't be travelling over those sorts of extended distances.

Quote from: #Metro on February 26, 2024, 09:44:17 AM

Quote from: JonnoDoing Nothing whilst blindly continuing to spend equally escalating $ on road widening projects is a key problem.

It's a mode-neutral observation. Road projects are escalating too, and they will meet the same fate for the same reasons.

Our goal isn't to outspend the road lobby or their projects. As tempting as that may be.

PT has the advantage in this environment, as you can always improve service for low additional cost.

With road projects there is no service aspect. Either the road/interchange gets built or it's nothing. You can't increase the frequency or span of a road.

In regards to constructions costs. Government projects are more and more increasingly choosing to spend more on material guarantees which is on top of increasing material costs. And usually this is due to political promises/not wanting the opposition to use it as a voter grab opportunity. They want the pizza delivered in 20 mins but it's not a pizza but a multimillion dollar infrastructure project. The downside is you also get to a point where you hit the cost ceiling which we saw on the Toowoomba bypass project. They paid a premium for material guarantee and project delivery but had to settle for cheaper engineering and materials to suit the budget. Which is going great!

Concept for Member Discussion

Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line Express Buses (Route 666)

Purpose: A temporary express bus system to act in place of the Direct Sunshine Coast Rail line while stages two and three of the DSCRL are planned, funded, and built. Similar to Route 535 Springfield when Richlands station was built, or the 777 Light Rail bus on the Gold Coast.

-    Stop-gap measure designed to serve most areas that the DSCRL train line eventually will
-    Seven stops, 40-45 minutes expected travel time end to end
-    22 km route between Caloundra and Maroochydore
-    Average 3 km spacing between stops, just like a train
-    15 minutes all day basic frequency. Designed to be 2x the expected train frequency (30 minutes) so that people can get between stops, its turn-up and go.
-    Uses ordinary buses, can get larger buses if patronage grows
-    Patronage should be good, given that the corridor would already justify a line for a 1000-pax train.

System could be set up as soon as Caloundra Station opens. As the railway line extends incrementally north, the express bus system will shorten its route to compensate. If there is an opportunity to build the station P&Rs first, the temporary express bus could leverage these as well.

Proposed Stops
- Maroochydore Sunshine Plaza
- Mountain Creek DSCRL Site (would require building ramps and bus bays into the side of the Sunshine Coast Motorway. Precedent - Fig Tree Pocket on Centenary Highway siding Stop ID: 001571). A P&R could be built nearby on the former landfill site.
- Kawana Shoppingworld
- Birtinya DSCRL Site
- Sunshine Coast University Hospital
- Currumundi Markets Stop
- Caloundra DSCRL Station

Notes. No stop is proposed at Aroona DSCRL Site as it is not on the way and thus would require a significant detour.



Detailed Route Description:

The service would begin at the proposed Caloundra DSCRL train station at Caloundra Road and Nicklin Way (first stop). The service travels North along Nicklin Way to the second stop at Currumundi Markets (near -26.77112, 153.12324). The service turns west along Creekside Blvd to the third stop at Sunshine Coast University Hospital (near -26.74642, 153.11481). From this location, the service travels along Kawana Way through to the fourth stop at Birtinya DSCRL site (near -26.74002, 153.11842) where it is proposed a P&R for the future Birtinya station be built and leveraged for the bus.

From Birtinya, the service returns to Nicklin Way and travels North to the fifth stop at Kawana Shoppingworld (near -26.70383, 153.12918). The service enters the Sunshine Motorway to the sixth stop at the DSCRL Mountain Creek site (near -26.68459, 153.10364). This stop is optional, and is dependent on the site being feasible to convert to a temporary bus stop.

The service continues North along the Sunshine Motorway, Maroochy Blvd, and Plaza Pde to the seventh and final stop at Maroochydore Bus Interchange (near -26.65481, 153.09135).

Quote from: GazzaYeah, much like the GC has the HF 700, but then also the 777 express to the Airport.

As a stopgap, have the existing 600 HF corridor, but complement it with the 666 😈
Express on Nicklin Way, bypassing Dicky Beach, then go Via Creekside Blvd And Kawana Way to service SCUH, and then After Kawana Shoppingworld, Express to Maroochydore via the Sunshine Motorway, bypassing Alex Headland.

Quote from: ozbob on February 26, 2024, 12:21:57 PMCertainly been a lot of media concerning the DSCRL and the announcement on the weekend.

Until the business case is assessed by IA (this can take some time), and then the Federal Government makes a decision on funding, probably nothing much will occur.

https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/direct-sunshine-coast-rail-line-planning hasn't been updated yet.

Couriermail (email)

QuoteMILES DOWNPLAYS RAIL FUNDING GAP
Premier Steven Miles insists there is ample time for the federal government to make up its mind on funding a major Sunshine Coast rail line despite it needing to be built before the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

The state government wants construction on the 19km rail line from Beerwah to Caloundra to begin in 2026, giving the project six years before the 2032 Games. But the federal government has so far made no promises on forking out the extra $1.1bn needed to get the $5.5bn first stage of the direct Sunshine Coast rail line underway.

The proposal must be considered by Infrastructure Australia which will then advise the government on what it should do. Based on Queensland's recent submissions this process would take at least six months and likely miss the federal government's May budget.

Mr Miles said there was "ample" time for the federal government to make up its mind. "These are all long-term projects," he said.