RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Better decisions through research. 

A thread for more technical and research oriented material 

QUT: Designing nudges for Public Transport Customer Journeys

https://research.qut.edu.au/best/projects/understanding-the-two-seat-journey/

"This project aimed to look for ways to shift people from taking a 'single seat journey' to taking 'two seat' journeys."

This is going to be important with ' Brisbane's new bus network ' 

https://eprints.qut.edu.au/216564/1/Understanding_the_two_seat_journey.pdf

Urban Transport Systems A Transport Australia Society Discussion Paper (Dec 2021)
https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-01/Urban-Transport-Systems-TAS-Discussion-Paper-December-2021-revised.pdf

This discussion paper by Engineers Australia deals with traffic demand and induction. Members often reference it.

QuoteRichardson and Burgess have demonstrated that to sustain public transport patronage from induced demand, the public transport system must be improved continuously at a rate greater than the improvements for car traffic on the road system.

Which is pretty much saying if the road network quality has gone up, the PT network needs to go up to catch up with it.

QuoteSimilarly, induced demand applies to cycling when the quality of cycling routes is improved and made safer.

Which makes sense if you shift focus from what the vehicle looks like or is called, to what the vehicle provides - a door-to-door journey time of duration X in competition with alternative modes.

QuoteRegardless of the mode of travel, improvements to that mode relative to others, will increase usage by that mode and vice versa.

This is basically a restatement of 'time-equivalence'. It's all relative.

If you offer a freeway with 100 km/hr speeds that will be preferred to a bus that does 30 km/hr average speed and comes once every half hour. This is why the rapid transit model is so important over long distances and low densities.

QuoteTransport is the second largest cause of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) in 2020, causing 19% of national GHG emissions, excluding infrastructure construction.

I'm not too concerned about car emissions as I see the medium term trend being a total phase out of combustion engines in favour of electric. Once the grid is green the cars charging off it will be green too.

QuoteThe focus on achieving lower urban speeds through road design, instead of relying entirely on speed limits, has been widely acclaimed in Europe, yet seldom applied in Australia.

Road crossings are a major point they could fix up. Bring back raised zebra crossings.

QuoteInfrastructure Australia (2019) is one of many organisations that has recognised the need to move away from the traditional planning approach of "predict and provide", based largely on an extrapolation of past trends, to a more forward looking "vision and validate" model.

Every new resident adds an average of 3.3 trips per day to the transport network. Two of those trips are the journey to and from work. Authorities need to decide whether they want that 3.3. trips on the motorway or on the train and busway network.

If they want it on the train network, then the service needs a big speed boost with much faster trains and design speeds (200 km/hr) for places like Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and potentially Kippa-Ring, and increased frequency (15 min all day). Within the inner city we could look at probing whether 10 minutes all day at inner stations is possible.

Volume and Space Efficiency


(Image - Cycling Promotion Fund)

These sort of images show that buses and bikes are a more efficient use of space. This is true.
But the issue here is not just about space. It is about space and time.

Sure, a bus could fit 65 people efficiently, but if it comes once per hour and does a safari tour first versus the car comes with an instantaneous frequency and is direct, then it is not hard to see why one mode takes a larger share than the other.

The bus frequency needs to be more frequent, the stops spaced a bit further apart, and the route more direct, and protected from general traffic congestion for it to be competitive.

I'll take the opportunity to point people at
https://www.worldtransitresearch.info

which is run by the PTRG out of Monash (Graham Currie's group).

I was able to locate a paper by Peter Marinovich from the Public Transport Authority of WA on the engineering design for how to place trains directly into motorways.
---
Designing for mass transit railways within freeway medians
Author    Martinovich, P
Public Transport Authority, Western Australia
Publication Date: 2006
Conference: CORE 2006, Rail achieving growth, Conference on Railway Engineering, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 30 April-3 May 2006
Publisher: Railway Technical Society of Australasia

QuoteAdvantage of Railways in Freeway Medians

- High visibility to accentuate the competitive alternate to freeway congestion.
- The major arterial connector roads are also good feeders to transit stations located where arterial feeders join the freeway.
- Land take and environmental impacts are minimised and better managed by concentrating road and rail within one corridor.
- Freeways are usually fully grade separated.
- The alignment and profile standards suit a railway

Paper (permalink)
http://www.railknowledgebank.com/Presto/pl/MTk4MTRjNDUtNWQ0My00OTBmLTllYWUtZWFjM2U2OTE0ZDY3LjE1NzY=

Public transport crowding valuation in a post-pandemic era
Menno Yap, Howard Wong & Oded Cats (2023)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-023-10420-1

Improvement in observables and methods of data collection means good input values for building models of passenger patronage. Confirms well known phenomenon that waiting time is penalised ~ 2x more than in-vehicle time.

This ties in nicely with the large increases in patronage that are generally seen when services are upgraded from 30 minute frequency to 15 minute frequency.

QuoteAbstract
It is important to understand how public transport passengers value on-board crowding since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main contribution of this study is to derive the crowding valuation of public transport passengers in a post-pandemic era entirely based on observed, actual passenger route choices. We derive passengers' crowding valuation for the London metro network based on a revealed preference discrete choice model using maximum likelihood estimation...

QuoteFurthermore, we found a ratio between out-of-vehicle time and in-vehicle time of 1.94 pre-pandemic and of 1.92 post-pandemic, based on which we conclude that the relative waiting/walking time valuation did not significantly change since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact of fare-free public transport on travel behavior: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial ($)
Regional Science and Urban Economics
Volume 86, January 2021, 103616

Authors: Owen Bull, Juan Carlos Muñoz, Hugo E. Silva
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103616

QuoteWe investigate the impact of fare-free public transport on travel behavior by randomly assigning a pass to workers in Santiago (Chile). The pass allowed them unlimited travel for two weeks, as opposed to paying the regular fare of approximately US$ 1 per trip. The main impact of fare-free public transport is an increase in overall travel of 12%.

QuoteFinally, we find that having access to a fare-free public transport system did not have an impact on car trips. In particular, we did not find a significant effect on total car trips in the two-week treatment period, on car trips made during peak periods, or on car trips to travel to work or return home. Therefore, we find no evidence that fare-free public transport decreases negative externalities or that it increases public transport crowding during peak periods.

So a 12% increase in trip generation when fares were set to zero. Therefore, a smaller fare discount less than 100% would likely lead to an even smaller trip generation.

This is the sort of study that can be run on the TransLink network in SEQ and Brisbane to get valid information and validate the findings for the SEQ context. You could imagine give free passes to CBD workers or alternatively, put them in letterboxes or give them randomly to residents in certain suburbs like Albany Creek, Yeronga, Bulimba etc and then see what happens.

Regional trials on the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, MBRC etc could be done as well. Research costs money, but is a relatively small cost to do compared to actually implementing an untested policy.

All depends on the network, trip generators and what else is available. Reducing the fare by 30 cents won't incentivise more people to catch the single Saturday Gympie North service or the weekday 314. Free fares won't get people that live at Carseldine and work at Taigum when the first outbound 335 gets there after 9am. The bulk of the 340 patronage is City-TPCH and that includes to some extent the issues of City-RBWH overcrowding where 330/333/340 buses outbound in morning peak can't pick up anyone else at Roma Street as they are full to the brim with those going to KGBS. If you live in a public transport blackhole, bus routes that do scenic tours that avoid railway interchanges, cheaper or free fares still aren't enough to incentivise people onto pt. To some extent we already see something similar where people go past local railway stations or transfer to tag on at Northgate to save a minimum $500 per year if they commute to the city which is helped thanks to the station still being zone one while the surrounding bus network is zone 2. Gee I wonder why park and ride keeps expanding there to keep up with the car parking issues. Adding more buses won't fix it because you get slugged with a 2 zone trip as the bus network transitions to zone 2 back at Toombul.

You mention Albany creek. This is one area that car depending is still quite high thanks to poor pt access. Not fare pricing. Routes that change terminus and route running depending on the time or if it's public school holidays. And then you have 60 and 120 minute frequencies with final routes being run at 6pm. Some love to harp on about buz frequencies and patronage but no one wants to address the routes in brisbane that still run at 120 minutes. Not 12 minutes. 120 minutes. More buses run along Gympie road between 10-11pm than we get across a whole weekend. As a local...northern bordering local tell me or try to entice me as to why I should use pt instead of driving? Try to convince us that locals from Warner should catch a free 60 minute peak hour (yes that's right. Strathpine-Warner have 1bph in peak hour) scenic tour bus and then train to the city (if they go there) instead of driving through Albany creek? (A decent amount head to Chermside/TPCH and others continue onto Ashgrove/Enoggera).

If you have a crap network and trip generator source people will continue to drive, abuse the system and increases to other more popular corridors especially when you still have bus routes that don't always go to their normal terminus location - 306,322,338,357,359 etc

My point was more aimed at the double standard when it comes to public transport investment.

"We can only expand services if the revenue grows or it has to be affordable for the tax-payer"

"We can't reduce fares as we will have to cut services"

Never heard these applied to a single road project.

Do we need to redesign our bus network and ramp it and the train frequency through the roof?  Hell yes!

Do we need to be concerned that fares wont cover the cost?  Not in your life!

Should we stop investing in more congestion creating road expansions to help pay for it!! Hell yer.

The economic, health, access benefits alone cover the cost.

Do we ask schools, hospitals, police stations and roads to cover their costs! No

Can we reduce fares to help out lower socioeconomic families (who should have access to high frequency services) Hell Yes.

Should children/student/concession be free.  Hell yer.

Should lower fares be implemented ONLY if it increase usage! Nope.

Should we stop building car-dependent cities Hell yer.

Northern Suburbs Transit System: Background and technical aspects considered in the planning and design of the rail spine [Conference Paper]
Ninth International Rail Track Conference, Perth, Australia, 1992
M. Peter Marinovich, Senior Planning Engineer, WestRail
URL: Rail Knowledge Bank [External]

QuoteIn 1988, the Government of Western Australia undertook to provide a rapid transit system to serve the fast developing North Western Suburbs of Perth, which would be based around a railway spine located for a major part within the median of a busy freeway. The railway would be fed by an integrated bus system with provision for major carparks at the stations and be operational within four years. The design of the railway for 110 km/h operations presented a unique challenge in such areas as clearance to road traffic, drainage and future maintenance. New standards of alignment design were required. A track structure was needed that would provide a very high standard of reliability and stability with minimal maintenance.

A key research question was whether a median already existed. The answer is that for the most part it did, however for a 5 km section, the freeway had to be split apart because there was no median available. 

Quote"For the first 22.5km of the route, the railway would be located entirely within the median of the Mitchell Freeway. Where that median did not exist for a 5 km section close to the City, the Freeway would be bifurcated to create the median required."

Perth Urban Rail Development Project (NewMetroRail) [Conference Paper]
CORE 2002, Cost Efficient Railways through Engineering, Conference on Railway Engineering, Wollongong, New South Wales, November 10-13, 2002
Peter Martinovich, Deputy Project Director Perth Urban Rail Development
URL: https://railknowledgebank.com/Presto/pl/MTk4MTRjNDUtNWQ0My00OTBmLTllYWUtZWFjM2U2OTE0ZDY3LjQyMA==



Review of Paper

It is worth reflecting on how it is possible to achieve an operational, high-patronage, high-frequency rail service set in a low density and high car use context. As such an exception to the current orthodoxy, an update to the knowledge base and theories around how to sustain PT is required. But what should that knowledge update be?

Ultimately, the success of failure of a station to gain patronage comes down to its passenger catchment. Catchment is the key operating principle here. In a new urbanism context, the focus is on packing denser housing into the catchment - approximately an 800 m or so radius around the station - so that passengers can walk to the station. In the Perth DOT model (density-oriented transit), you skip doing that, and instead the catchment is itself expanded to be much wider through the use of Park and Ride and bus interchanges (from ~ 800 m to approximately a 7-8 km radius around the station, which is what a car can do in 10 minutes). The expansion of P&R is a point of major objection to urbanists.

Operating Principle: The DOT model works in low density because even if the density is lower, the catchment is now ~ 10x much larger, which mitigates and compensates for this low density. And the high speed of the railway makes it worth driving or catching a bus to.

Quote from: MartinovichTo be successful in a city like Perth with its low density settlement, lifestyle, very high car ownership together with splendid road infrastructure, the public transport system must compete with the car. Unbridled expansion of private car trips, particularly journeys to work, cannot be sustained.

The rail system is designed to minimise journey times and maximise convenience in order to attract people from cars. From this has come, for Perth's rapid transit system, the station spacing interval selected, high train frequency, fast trains and transit stations that facilitate convenient modal interchange. To minimise journey time, maximise the speed potential of the rollingstock and optimise rollingstock utilisation, the average spacing of transit stations should be no less than about three kilometres on average.

The different modes of travelling from home to major stations on the NSTS is as follows:
• Park & ride: up to 20%
• Car passengers set down: up to 28%
• By bus: 35% to 45%
• By walking or cycle: 10%

This paper also documents the benefit of choosing a more direct alignment down the middle of a freeway, rather than the alternative route proposed at the time.

QuoteBenefits of the Direct Route are:
• Significant journey time savings
• Patronage increase
• A better level of service
• 20% saving in rollingstock numbers
• 50% increase in rollingstock utilisation

Finally, Table 1 clearly shows how the railway was designed to compete against cars and win mode share, which is an issue also touched on in our own R1 Gold Coast Regional Rapid Rail concept. Would an upgraded Beenleigh line genuinely allow average train speeds to exceed average car speeds on the M1?

The Challenges of Expanding Perth's Rail System (AUSRAIL PLUS 2007) [Conference Paper]
31 October, 2007
Peter Martinovich, Deputy Project Director, New MetroRail. WA Public Transport Authority.
URL: https://railknowledgebank.com/Presto/pl/MTk4MTRjNDUtNWQ0My00OTBmLTllYWUtZWFjM2U2OTE0ZDY3LjYxMw==

Review of Paper
A further deep dive into the mechanics of how and why the NewMetro Rail was designed. Planners and railway engineers disagreed about the alignment the railway should take - should the railway be beside the freeway or set in the freeway median?

Planners emphasised the traditional 'walkup' model, whereas engineers emphasised a Density Oriented Transport (DOT) model fed by buses and cars/P&R. Why did this professional disagreement occur? Potentially the differences in the training and traditions of each discipline played a key part: Planning tends to emphasise ideals about what form development should take, qualitative aspects such as how things look and feel are a big part of that. Engineering, on the other hand, is a quantitative and pragmatic discipline - the emphasis is on what is necessary, efficient, effective, and convenient. It is much less concerned about look and feel.

QuoteI have been to a conference when a co-presenter a senior rail figure, challenged the emphasis of establishing the demand before turning to the "supply" side of the equation because as he put it; "Everyone knows that railways create their own demand". That's part of our problem in rail because whilst one may even get away with that thinking at a railway gathering, it has no credibility when you are in the bear-pit arguing the case for a railway against other options.

QuoteWhere the railway was to be within the freeway for a limited length, the influence of planners initially prevailed to ensure that it ran alongside, not down the middle of the freeway because it was argued that would be more conducive for people's access to the stations, and a better integration with land use.

Again, there was the perception of a system with people walking on, without due recognition that because the residential density of the corridor to be served was so low, the railway required up to nine times the patronage than was available within walking distance at each station.

Key points about patronage generation in low density - patronage must come from far outside the walkup zone of the train station for the station to be supported.

QuoteHow rail can work in low urban densities
Traditionally, mass transit railways achieve their passenger "mass" by accessing high density. In Perth, the people must be massed at strategically located large stations, to generate enough people to fill trains. The Overwhelming majority of total patronage must come from outside the walking radius to the station. Potential commuters have to be attracted in the first place and they must use a car or a bus to access the station, a point that is often lost. The diagram below was developed from data collated for the Warwick Station, with a catchment area of about 40 square kilometres. Of some 4,500 one way boarding per day, some 50 per cent come by car (Park, Ride and Drop off) and 40 per cent by bus.

Justifying mega-projects: An analysis of the Swedish high-speed rail project.

Ronnle, Erik (2019). Justifying mega-projects: An analysis of the Swedish high-speed rail project. [Doctoral Thesis], Department of Business Administration, School of Economics and Management, Lund University.

URL: https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/8eac4870-ef1a-49f9-859e-6d89a46e3327

QuoteAbstract

Mega-projects are a growing phenomenon worldwide. More and more projects are started and they grow ever bigger in size. At the same time, there is overwhelming evidence that mega-projects tend to run late, overrun in terms of costs and fail to deliver the expected benefits. Paradoxically, more and more money is invested in projects that fail to deliver on their promises.

This dissertation analyses how mega-projects are justified through a case study of the Swedish highspeed rail project and the National Negotiation on Housing and Infrastructure (Sverigeförhandlingen). The Swedish high-speed rail project is arguably the biggest project ever initiated in the country and fits the definition of a mega-project. It is planned to connect the three largest cities Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö with high-speed rail tracks at an estimated investment cost of 230 billion SEK (€23.1 billion). The project is highly controversial in the public debate. It impacts a large number of people and involves substantial financial commitment. Interestingly, it is also heavily unprofitable in cost-benefit analysis calculations. Based on these calculations, the project is unprofitable and should be cancelled. Still, the project has been allowed to continue by two consecutive governments. Analysing how this project is justified makes it possible to address the wider issue of why mega-projects continue to hold such appeal among decision makers despite their track record.

The dissertation finds that the Swedish high-speed rail project is being justified based on a combination of strategies: widening the scope, producing encouraging numbers, creating and mobilising stakeholders, and arguing using a policy narrative. It shows how the project leadership skilfully bypasses criticism from cost-benefit analysis and succeeds to gather support for the project despite the numbers.  The research has been done at Lund University School of Economics and Management and K2 – the Swedish Knowledge Centre for Public Transport.

Pretty much what I have suggested on this forum... a TOD should be defined as such by its mode share performance (50%+) rather than its potential or building form characteristics. Now I find that this idea has been independently arrived at by urban planning expert Chris Hale as well.

TOD Versus TAD: The Great Debate Resolved...(?) ($ Paywall)
Planning Practice & Research, Volume 29, 2014 - Issue 5
Chris Hale

URL https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2012.749056

QuoteAbstract
This paper discusses the distinction between transit-oriented development (TOD) and so-called 'transit-adjacent development' (TAD)—a label sometimes applied to less-successful TOD efforts. It is suggested that transport performance is the key factor distinguishing between the two outcomes—and that despite complexities, clearer quantitative benchmarks are needed. Much of the literature and discussion on TOD centres around a perceived failing of many TOD project attempts to deliver a 'genuine transit-oriented outcome'. Often, this discussion has remained at a thematic level, or has rested on subjective qualitative appraisal, or critique of design or built-form outcomes. With a few exceptions, researchers and experts have generally been reluctant to provide a clear benchmark for TOD success or failure—perhaps because so many well-intentioned TOD efforts fall short of initial expectations.

This paper puts forward a proposal that mode share should be the apex metric for determining TOD project success or failure. It is suggested that a majority (50%+) of travel movements need to be accommodated by the sustainable modes (walking, cycling, and public transit) for a location to assume the label of 'genuine TOD'. Equally, other locations that attempt TOD, but do not deliver a sustainable travel majority, might be placed in the 'TAD' category. Benchmark figures from international precincts and locales are used to sustain this argument—with reference to the broader planning, urban development, and design contexts in which these ideas sit.

Do Trackless Trams need stronger roads? – the "weight" of evidence 
James Reynolds, David Pham and Graham Currie

Australasian Transport Research Forum 2021 Proceedings 8-10 December, Brisbane, Australia
Publication website: http://www.atrf.info
URL https://publictransportresearchgroup.info/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Reynolds-Pham-and-Currie-2021-Trackless-Trams-and-road-pavement-impacts.pdf

QuoteAbstract

Trackless Trams are a new generation of advanced bus technologies with significant potential for application as a cost-effective alternative to Light Rail Transit. They have significantly lower estimated construction and infrastructure costs (-67% to -84%) compared to Light Rail since they can use existing roads and don't need expensive rail tracks.  However, they are very heavy vehicles that have the potential to cause pavement damage, suggesting a need for road strengthening works. The manufacturer claims they can be used on any road without the need for road pavement treatments and, because of this, can be implemented in only a few days.   

This paper explores the road pavement impacts of new Trackless Tram bus technologies.   It finds Trackless Trams weigh between 32 and 85 Tonnes and would be amongst the heaviest vehicles used on roads. An independent inspection of existing Trackless Tram sites is reported in the paper. This discovered evidence of road pavement damage, suggesting that claims for a 'weekend' system construction period using existing road pavements are very optimistic.

Modelling of road pavement performance suggests Trackless Trams are likely to require significant road pavement strengthening under almost all scenarios modelled. The traffic load bearing impact of Trackless Trams is between 14 and 221 times higher than common loads on even high traffic urban roads. Under almost all scenarios modelled, stronger pavements were needed, particularly for flexible pavements with poor quality subgrade. Larger and heavy Trackless Tram vehicles require stronger road pavement designs and for even the smaller threemodule Trackless Tram on flexible pavements at light load levels, a more frequent service will require a 9.5% increase in pavement thickness compared to a lower frequency service. Implications of the research for future research and practice are discussed.

The paper goes into modelling of the load of these guided buses on the road surfaces and finds that strengthening of the road surface is generally required. However, the authors suggest that despite this, the system is likely to be cheaper than LRT in terms of capital costs.

Better decisions through... Research! 

ATRF PTRG Webinar - Trackless Trams a New Mid-Tier Transit System   

QuoteThe need for mid-tier transit in Australasian cities is growing as we recognise the role that can be played as a high-capacity connector down main roads and an enabler of urban regeneration around station precincts. This is part of the global process described as a Movement and Place Strategy which was started by TfL. Added to this is the new dimension of net zero. The Webinar will build on a research project at Curtin that has worked with communities, local governments, state agencies and industry (including Stantec) across Australasia, to help better define what can be done to create a Transit Activated Corridor (TAC) or a Net Zero Corridor (NZC). It is globally significant work that has been recognised by groups like the World Economic Forum and the UNFCCC in Sharm El Sheikh at COP 27. Videos, academic papers, industry reports and media have all helped to present the perspective of the three presenters and there has been considerable debate as the concept was applied to Townsville, Liverpool (Syd), Wyndham (Melb), Perth and Bunbury. Two trackless trams are due to arrive in Australia for testing in August and new opportunities are emerging for their application.

SPEAKERS:
Graham Currie (graham.currie@monash.edu)      HOST
James Reynolds (james.reynolds@monash.edu) CO-HOST

EXPERT SPEAKERS
Peter Newman (P.Newman@curtin.edu.au)
Marie Verschuer (marie@bodhialliance.com.au)
Christian Griffith (christian.griffith@stantec.com)

Environmental and Safety Impact of Brisbane's Airtrain Operations: Impact of passengers using rail rather than cars to reach Brisbane Airport.
Technical Report, School Urban Development, BEE, QUT.
Ferreira, Luis & Charles, Phillip M. (2006), QUT eSpace
https://eprints.qut.edu.au/215842/1/4287.pdf

QuoteThis report summarises the findings of a study into the impact of Airtrain operations on the likely amount of car trips avoided and hence on likely avoided CO2 emissions and road crashes in South East Queensland (SEQ).

Report then goes on to develop model estimates for car trips avoided, likely avoided CO2 emissions and road crashes avoided. Assigns a cost to these as well.

QuoteA number of empirical studies have demonstrated the importance of considering travel time variability when estimating the benefits to travellers of time savings. There is evidence that unexpected delay should be valued significantly different from average travel time valuations – values between 2.5 and 5 times in-vehicle travel time has been used.

^ Interesting to note this. Indirectly, it also confirms the existence of transfer penalties. The penalty does not appear to come from the act of interchange itself, but rather the possibility of missing the connecting service and being delayed.

QuoteThe following impacts were estimated for the 5 year period since May 2001: 
Avoided vehicle-kilometres travelled (VKT) on the road system:  113.89 million VKT 
Avoided road crashes :  84
Avoided road crash costs:  $5.7 million 
Avoided vehicle fuel consumption:  10.6 million litres
Avoided vehicle emissions:  23,700 tonnes CO2 Using a value of $35/tonne, the value of avoided emissions: $0.8M 
Average trips avoided between the CBD and the Airport in 1–hr am & pm peak periods:  310  (represent 6–7% of a single traffic lane) Likely impact on average speeds of the order of 10–15% change.

Would be interesting to see what a similar analysis would be for the Perth system, given that it is higher frequency and span.

Performance of  PPPs and Traditional Procurement in Australia (No date given, possibly 2016).
https://infrastructure.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/IPA_PPP_FINAL.pdf

Reviews various projects in Australia and considers some of the arguments for and against.

QuoteInfrastructure Partnerships Australia (IPA) is the nation's peak infrastructure organisation. Our Membership is comprised of Australia's most senior business leaders and public sector executives from across the infrastructure sector. IPA is the only body which brings together the public and private sectors in a spirit of partnership, to build Australia together.

QuoteThis study of the performance of Public-Private-Partnerships (PPPs) and Traditional procurement is the first of its kind to be undertaken in Australia. Cost performance and timeliness outcomes were measured relative to budget for the management and construction of public infrastructure projects.

QuoteAcknowledgments: This study involved a collaborative effort between the Allen Consulting Group and the University of Melbourne. Associate Professor Colin Duffield of the Faculty of Engineering and Dr Peter Raisbeck of the Faculty of Architecture Building and Planning were our co-authors.

Why Fast Trains Work: An Assessment of a Fast Regional Rail System in Perth, Australia
James McIntosh, Peter Newman, Garry Glazebrook, Curtin University (Perth) and UTS (Sydney).
Journal of Transportation Technologies, 2013, 3, 37-47
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jtts.2013.32A005 Published Online May 2013 [Open Access]

QuoteThe Perth Southern Rail Line catchment density (presented in Figure 2) is mainly between 6 - 15 dwellings per hectare, which is a very low dwelling density for rail-based public transport services to be considered viable. South of Murdoch station, the average density of development is even lower, with significant gaps of rural land between settlements.

(bolding added)

To place this into perspective... Translink Queensland has a standard of 7 dwellings/hectare as the absolute minimum density to place on a basic bus service.

QuoteTransLink further advises that the minimum standard for implementing bus transport services in regional areas of South East Queensland is seven dwellings per hectare. I am advised that the urban density of this outer area of Bli Bli consists of less than 3.5 dwellings per hectare and is therefore below the minimum limit of 7 dwellings per hectare considered necessary to support viable urban bus services.

See (1).

Murdoch Station

QuoteMurdoch Station had 6733 boardings per day, and is now up to 8383 passenger boardings in March, 2012

For perspective, in 2023 Toowong Station in Brisbane got an average of 3032 boardings per day, and Milton Station 1962 boardings per day. Murdoch Station in Perth achieves levels of patronage approaching that of Roma Street Station in Brisbane. See https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=14868.0

QuotePerth Southern Rail Operational Modal Choice Model
The generalized cost (GC) to the user of either public or private transport trip is characterized as a function of a time component, a monetary component, and opportunity component, which can be expressed as:

GC = TTC + FC + OC

where TTC is the Travel Time Cost, FC are financial costs, and OC are opportunity costs.

QuoteThis model for the minimization of public transport generalized cost when compared to the private vehicle has enabled Perth Southern Suburbs rail line to be very competitive with the private vehicle in a region where the Southern Rail Line is located. This area is where the private vehicle has been historically extremely dominant due to low dwelling and population density, and long travel distances for the journey to work.

The low generalized cost network design minimizes the time and financial cost for the multimodal trip and induces traditionally car-based ridership onto the transfer designed feeder services to the stations, and this is the key success for the intermodal public transport model that operates for the Southern Rail Line. The application of the Southern Rail model to the design of high speed intra-city and regional rail for large, low density cities as well as very fast intercity train systems would appear to be clear.

(bold added). Note the qualification used here - large, low density cities. Lessons are for those cities, not for cities with medium or high density.

Notes

(1) Tabled Paper, Petition number 1118-08 lodged with the Legislative Assembly on 10 September 2008 (QLD)
https://documents.parliament.qld.gov.au/TableOffice/TabledPapers/2009/5209T4960.pdf

Perth's Urban Rail Renaissance
Philip G. Laird, University of Wollongong (2016)
MSc (VUW) MSc (ANU) PhD (Calgary) FCILT, Comp IE Aust 
AusRAIL PLUS Proceedings 2016, Rail - Moving the Economy Forward (pp. 1-8). [Railway Conference Paper]
Canberra, Australia: Australian Railway Association.
URL: https://ro.uow.edu.au/eispapers1/277/

This paper mentions cost control, forecast patronage exceeded, how Adelaide and Perth started from the same low patronage level of 10 million trips/year in the 1990s, and the attention that other countries and jurisdictions paid to TransPerth after completion of the project.

QuoteAbstract

Over the past thirty five years, instead of being discontinued from use, Perth's urban rail network has been tripled in route length and electrified at 25,000 volts AC. The extensions include the Northern Suburbs Railway (with stage 1 opened in 1993 and this line reaching Butler in 2014), and, the 72 kilometre Perth Mandurah line opening in 2007. Integrated with a well run bus system, along with fast and frequent train services, there has been a near ten fold growth in rail patronage since 1981 when some 6.5 million passengers used the trains to 64.2 million in 2014-15. Bus patronage has also increased...

QuoteThe increases in rail and bus patronage are even more remarkable given Perth's relatively low population density and high car dependence. The overall improvements in Perth's public transport illustrate the value of urban rail upgrades to world class standards. In turn, these upgrades have attracted attention from other States and overseas (including South Australia and New Zealand when electrifying their urban railways in Adelaide and Auckland respectively, with electric trains operating from 2014). 

QuoteIt is of note that during the 1990s when Perth's system was electrified and extended with patronage doubling from 10 to 20 million passengers per year, the Adelaide system patronage remained static at about 10 million passengers per year.

I'd say there are 2 hard advantages Perth is always going to have over SEQ:

- The railways (generally) go to more useful places.
- The railways have decent geometry which enables better travel times

The other advantages are institutional and can be overcome more readily (eg governance, funding, town planning and more of a focus on interchanging), but the first 2 are pretty big problems than can't be fixed without billions and billions of dollars of capex.

Agree SurfRail.

The two big potential Capex projects needed to catch up with Perth:

- Sunshine Coast Line (160 km/hr standard)
- R1 Gold Coast Line (also built to a 160 km/hr standard, assessed for fit into the M1 corridor)
- Run these at 15 min frequencies all day, including weekends.

These would add say ~ +20 million trips per year to the rail network, together.

Won't happen anytime soon, as there isn't the money or extra trains. But the planning can be done in that time. $10 billion or so is planned to be spent on roads in or around the M1 Corridor to the NSW border... could fund rail with that.

I think any prospect of a line shadowing the M1 is basically dead in the water given LGCFR is what we are getting.  Much as it would have been more sensible to build a proper Gold Coast line instead of the busway, I can't see that corridor being substantially different.  Maybe trolley wires along most of the length at some point to the extent there are no clearance issues with off-wire operation where there is such a complication (which would enable bigger vehicles without quite so much battery demand).

The next improvement for the Gold Coast is probably full quad from Kuraby to the Boggo Road portals (whatever form that takes) and elimination of the remaining level crossings from Salisbury and south, and after that we would be moving into Flagstone rail and HSR.

QuoteI think any prospect of a line shadowing the M1 is basically dead in the water given LGCFR is what we are getting.  Much as it would have been more sensible to build a proper Gold Coast line instead of the busway, I can't see that corridor being substantially different.  Maybe trolley wires along most of the length at some point to the extent there are no clearance issues with off-wire operation where there is such a complication (which would enable bigger vehicles without quite so much battery demand).

The next improvement for the Gold Coast is probably full quad from Kuraby to the Boggo Road portals (whatever form that takes) and elimination of the remaining level crossings from Salisbury and south, and after that we would be moving into Flagstone rail and HSR.

Well, it's not a certainty, so I wouldn't give it the weight of certainty just yet.

Why an 1800s alignment is the optimal path for a train to the Gold Coast versus the alternatives has not been positively established by TMR, at least publicly. What TMR appears to have done is run a one-horse race. It is the same approach with the Gympie Road Tunnel policy coming from the Queensland Government/QIC.

Did they do an options analysis considering this M1 corridor option and rejecting it based on an analysis of that, or was it rejected on "the vibe", or a ministerial decision?

One thing I have noticed about the WA Department of Transport or PTA/TransPerth is that there is a huge volume of high-quality published research publicly available and freely given at PT/rail conferences etc. It's well documented their thinking and results.

The Queensland Government and TMR certainly seem to have no issue creating duplicate motorways that shadow the existing ones.

Ask them?

Reason why they've done it this way - they want to spend money on LGCFR on the old shitty alignment so they can point to it and say 'we're spending money on PT, but its not getting much extra patronage! Therefore we need more roads!'

Quote from: #Metro on December 22, 2023, 12:58:06 PMDid they do an options analysis considering this M1 corridor option and rejecting it based on an analysis of that, or was it rejected on "the vibe", or a ministerial decision?

Not likely. A back up of the napkin study would give the result "prohibitively expensive". Especially considering you'd need to tunnel from about garden city to CRR. While plenty of widening has been done south of there, there's not much chance they'll resume properties along the M3 corridor. Much higher land values, higher density land usages, etc.

Its also Likely they're aware of the HSR corridor from the 2013 study, and the fact that that corridor could be used for a faster alignment to the GC means why would you go and spend millions on researching ANOTHER rail corridor. Funnily enough if you read IA's website this is a corridor that, while not fully gazetted, is at least something IA is trying to preserve.

https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/corridor-preservation-east-coast-high-speed-rail

See ---> https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=14912.msg278688

The Perth Rail Transformation: Some Political Lessons Learned
Peter Newman
Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University
Light Rail 2011 Conference. 6th April. Sydney.
URL: http://www.curtin.edu.au/research/cusp/local/docs/the_perth-rail-transformation.pdf

An excellent account of how the Perth rail network was almost closed and was rescued.

QuoteAbstract
In 1979 the WA State Government closed the Fremantle railway, as they did not see a future for rail in Perth. Today we have one of the most modern rail systems in the world with over 50 million passenger trips a year, and recently the Premier announced that the next phase would be a 'decade of light rail'.  How did this transition occur, and are there any lessons for other similar car dependent cities in this transformation?

- A Metropolitan Regional Improvement Fund (MRIF) was set up, based on a land tax that delivered special funding for regional infrastructure.

- Most of this went to the WA Main Roads Department to be spent on lots of roads

- Rail reservations in the new freeways plans were removed by WA Main Roads. Their view then was Perth was heading towards not needing trains.

Quote'Perth is a car city and will never need rail' a senior planner in Perth once told me. He proudly showed me how he had personally removed from the Metropolitan Regional Plan the two rail reservations to the north and had designed every major highway to be increased to 6 lanes and every freeway interchange to have a reservation bigger than those in any other city.

- A Metropolitan Transport Trust (MTT) was set up. Before 1974, the Perth MTT only operated buses, and did so in direct competition with the rail network (sound familiar?). After 1974 they also acquired responsibility for rail.

- The WA Government then appointed John Knox (unsure of prior job title) from the Shell Oil Company as WA Director General of Transport. In 1978, a report was produced recommending the closure of the entire Perth passenger rail network.

- The WA Court Government then started by closing the Fremantle Line in 1979, replacing it with buses, causing a 30% patronage drop

- Freeway plans were then revealed to be on foot (North South Coastal Highway) to replace the closed line.

- WA (Transport?) Department suggested that trains could not be placed into a motorway corridor, and to use buses instead:

QuoteThe Northern Suburbs Rapid Transit Study (NSRTS) was another story. After endless delays as the Department tried to suggest to the Minister that it was not possible to build a railway into a whole corridor built around the car, the Minister agreed to let the study go ahead as a Rapid Transit study not a Rail study.

(bolding added)

Southern Suburbs Rail

Opponents of the Mandurah line tried to get the Mandurah line put into a tunnel under the freeway from Jandakot, to price the rail project out of existence in favour of buses. The distance from Jandakot to Perth CBD is about ~ 15 km! Obviously, there was no engineering reason for a tunnel to be that length.

QuoteThe bus lobby came to see me to show why their busway had to remain and why the rail route should be made underground from Jandakot enabling a much more 'visionary alternative' – but in the process making it a $10 billion option instead of a $1.2 billion project and looking out on  darkness instead of the spectacular rail views of the river and city now so greatly treasured! Making the rail option too expensive was not the first time a rail project was lost to a cheaper bus option, and that was certainly their intention.

Perth rail network is high-quality today because it experienced a near-death situation, that Prof. Peter Newman, working as a public servant with the WA Department of Premier and Cabinet, managed to rescue and reverse.

Variation in Bus Transit Attribute Perceptions between Australian Cities

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/03611981231207844

Quote from: Weliwitiya et al.Bus services dominate transportation coverage of urban areas in almost all cities worldwide. However, there is a significant bias and positive preference toward rail-based urban transit in the perception of both users and nonusers of transit (1). This does not help the case for improvement in bus services. For over 70% of the Australian population, buses are the only form of public transport within walking distance (2).

Interestingly, TOD is generally discussed in terms of rail, however in 1800s Melbourne, these rail technologies were driving a massive low-density expansion of housing into the urban fringe. It also suggests that for missing middle to be effective, denser developments need also to take place away from the immediate walk-up to train and LRT stations, and along main road corridors much like the trams allowed in the late 1800s-1940s which was the golden era for trams in Australia.

Land Boom in 1880s Melbourne, Museums Victoria
https://collections.museumsvictoria.com.au/articles/2676

QuoteThe same speculators and financiers drove the expansion of the city at the edge, as market gardens and orchards were swallowed up for new housing developments. The new suburban estates spread along the expanding rail and tram lines; prospective buyers of land were lured with the offer of free railway passes and lunches of chicken and champagne prior to the auction.

For this phenomenon to work, there has to be both a willing buyer and a willing seller. Land prices were apparently so expensive in inner areas, the demand was pushed further out. Building tall apartment buildings was probably difficult given the technology of the day as well.

Even in the pre-car era there seems to have been a density gradient from CBD-urban-suburban-peri-urban-rural, and sprawl, they were just serviced by a different vehicle (rail or tram).

RBOT Public Transport Priority Pyramid (2023)
October 2023 (in-house)

Translink SEQ vs Transperth Train Frequency Analysis
First conducted June 2022, updated October 2023 (RBOT research)





Notes
Data was sourced from publicly available timetables on each of the transit agencies' websites.

- For SEQ, the QR suburban network is considered all stations up to and including Airport, Beenleigh, Cleveland, Doomben, Ferny Grove, Ipswich and Kippa-Ring.
- For Transperth: From November 2023, the Armidale-Thornlie line will be closed for METRONET works.
- Perth Underground and Perth station are counted as one station.
- Transperth's Thornline station operates 30 minutes basic frequency on Sundays.

"Ticket to ride": factors affecting park-and-ride travel in Perth, WA [Conference Paper, 2013]
Doina Olaru (1), Brett Smith (1), Jianhong (Cecilia) Xia (2), Chunmei Chen (2), Ting (Grace)
Lin (2), Huang Ying (1), Renlong Han (3)

(1) The University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, WA, Australia
(2) Curtin University, Bentley, 6102, WA, Australia
(3) Department of Planning WA, Perth, 6000, WA, Australia

Conference Paper · January 2014  · Submission for strand: Planning For Sustainable Land Use And Transport. The 13th World Conference on Transportation Research, 15 July 2013, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

URL: https://espace.curtin.edu.au/handle/20.500.11937/47658?show=full
URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319326784_Ticket_to_Ride_factors_affecting_park-and-ride_travel_in_Perth_WA

This paper deals with P&R on the Transperth railway network. As mentioned before, the volume of publicly available high-quality research done by WA authorities is a credit to them. Analysis was done using a car park audit of all 70 Transperth stations, along with a passenger surveys.

QuoteAbstract

In many cities park-and-ride (PnR) is gaining popularity for its ability to integrate car driving
with public transport. PnR increases access for residents living at the city's edge and helps
alleviate congestion. In terms of efficiency PnR reduces investment on frequent public
transport services in low-density areas.

PnR is particularly relevant to a low-density city like Perth, Western Australia. In recent years
PnR has been a key ingredient to generating a high volume public transport ridership on
newly constructed lines. More than 15,000 PnR bays have been incorporated into transitoriented
developments (TOD) around the 20 stations. This in contrast to the 48 legacy
stations which have in total 2,500 bays.

The paper aims to identify the effectiveness of the PnR direction taken by Perth city planners
by first looking at the differences in facilities at the older and newer stations. A survey of
passengers' stated importance of levels of service offered at rail stations is augmented by
their ratings of the existing level of service. The attitudes and ratings of the PnR network are
related to train patronage.

The authors note from the wider literature research that in medium to high-density contexts, motorised access (bus/P&R) is not as important as passengers can walk or cycle. But in low-density contexts, it becomes essential. Furthermore, in suburban and outer urban areas, there might not yet be market demand for TOD around stations.

Research Findings

The data in Table 4 from passenger surveys across the network (left column) show that P&R is ranked No.1 in a list of important facilities at stations (Factor rank 0.986, well above the presence of shops and food outlets of 0.590). The authors conclude that the P&R component is essential in a low-density city such as Perth:

QuotePnR provision seems to be crucial for PT travellers, as indicated by the higher factor loadings (0.790 and 0.986).

QuoteThe provision of PnR facilities at stations is the most significant driver of rail patronage in a low-density city like Perth and has been identified as the "number one" facility used by train riders.

Passengers stated that they chose P&R due to convenience, low cost, and speed. Having lived temporarily in Perth myself, the feeder bus system is reasonably good, and certainly better than Brisbane where BCC buses barely feed train stations at all. The value passengers place on P&R is also strong - 60% of survey participants said they would pay > $3 daily to get a spot [Note - $3.69 in 2022 dollars]. This high valuation of P&R - even in the presence of a reasonably good feeder bus system - suggests that - at least in a low density context - feeder buses are not entirely perfect substitutes for P&R.

The value of this work is that it does appear to confirm that the strategies or approaches taken for medium and high-density Australian cities, which had much of their development in the pre-1945 era, and those for low-density cities, where is it more a case of 'sprawl repair', should be different.

Potential Travel Time and Time Savings for a Fast Rail Service to the Gold Coast using Conventional Trains
From the R1 Gold Coast Thread ---> https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=14912.40



Duration calculation:
Track distance / average speed (in km/hr) then x 60 min and rounded to the nearest minute.

Willingness to use night trains for long-distance travel (2022) (CC & Open Access)
Travel Behaviour and Society, Volume 29, October 2022, Pages 339-349
Martijn Heufke Kantelaar (a), Eric Molin (b), Oded Cats (c), Barth Donners (a), Bert van Wee (b)

(a) Royal HaskoningDHV, Laan 1914 no. 35, 3818 EX Amersfoort, the Netherlands
(b) Department of Engineering Systems and Services, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, the Netherlands
(c) Department of Transport & Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2022.08.002

QuoteAbstract
After several decades of decline, night train services have gained momentum in recent years. However, the willingness to use night trains as an alternative to airplane travel has so far received only limited research attention. This paper addresses this knowledge gap by presenting the results of a two-stage stated preferences survey comprising of a comfort rating experiment and a mode choice experiment, an approach that is based on Hierarchical Information Integration (HII) theory. Data are collected in 2019 from 804 travellers in the Netherlands. From these data, first, a multiple regression model is estimated which indicates which basic comfort variables influence perceived comfort. Second, a Panel Mixed Logit choice model is estimated which indicates how perceived comfort is traded-off against travel time and travel cost.

We found that the level of comfort is an important determinant for traveling by night train, and in particular the number of persons a compartment is shared with, hence the 'privacy' aspect is important. The results can be used by rail operators to optimize the use of night train which may contribute to the substitution of air by rail travel for long-distance journeys in Europe and therefore contribute to a more sustainable transport system. Our study is also relevant for policy makers and employers because of the insights provided in these substitution factors, and because of the importance of this substitution for environmental and financial reasons.

Method

The investigating researchers used a survey method (stated preference) a star rating, and statistics to relate measures in the survey to map their values as 'stars' in the star rating scale. The authors organised the survey so multiple potential factors could be tested, these are described as first and second experiments. A focus group and experts also provided context as well.

1. The first experiment: Measuring perceived comfort (example survey)



Image: Creative Commons Licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

2. The second experiment: Measuring the trade-off among perceived comfort, time and costs



Image: Creative Commons Licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Findings

- The comfort level is the most important determinant for night train mode choice, sleeper cars valued the highest, ordinary seats the lowest, as one might expect.

Quote from: Kantelaar et al.Another important determinant is the comfort class. 'sleeper' is valued highest (0,722) and 'Couchette' class (0,285) is valued about half a rating star lower. The 'seat' accommodation (-1.007) is valued a full star lower...

- Perceived night train comfort is most influenced by the accommodation's privacy, fewer people in the cabin means higher stars.

Quote from: Kantelaar et al.The 'Number of People' in the compartment has a strong effect on the perceived comfort rating. The difference between sharing with 2 and 6 persons is about 1 star (=4*0,252). It reflects that people dislike sharing their accommodation on a night train with other persons.

- Business travellers seemed to prefer an evening plane plus hotel over either early morning plane or night train plus hotel. This seems to be related to work paying for the hotel and being able to catch up on sleep the night prior.

Quote from: Kantelaar et al.People do value a non-stop sleeper train: decreasing the number of stops from 6 to 0 increases the comfort rating by almost half a star (6*0.070 = 0.420).

- Food didn't seem to make much of a difference

Quote from: Kantelaar et al.Providing the option to get food or beverages onboard the train increases comfort. However, the difference between the 'restaurant car' (0.148) and 'kiosk' (0.116) is relatively small, i.e. people see little added value in upgraded food facilities.

- Greater insensitivity to the travel time (not surprising)

Quote from: Kantelaar et al.Reducing the travel time of the night train by up to 2.5 h has a relatively minor effect, ceteris paribus, of only a 5 % increase in the estimated market potential.

- Need to compete on comfort levels, not only cost.

Quote from: Kantelaar et al.Our model suggests that when comfort and price are reduced to levels comparable with low-cost carriers, the estimated market potential plummets by 20 percentage points. The night train appears thus to cater to travelers who are willing to spend a bit more on travel comfort.

The findings from the Netherlands may not map exactly in an Australian context, but are a guide to what studies here might look for. An important thing is that sleeper cars should minimise the number of other people in a cabin.

Understanding preferences for night trains and their potential to replace flights in Europe. The case of Sweden (2023)(CC & Open Access)
Tourism Management Perspectives, Volume 47, June 2023, 101115

Riccardo Curtale, Jörgen Larsson, Jonas Nässén
Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2023.101115

QuoteAbstract
Possible strategies to mitigate the climate impact of tourism transport include encouraging tourism to closer destinations and supporting more sustainable modes of transport, including trains. Today international trips by railways only have a small market share but night trains are considered an important part of a future green Europe. However, little is known about travelers' preferences for night trains for long-distance travel in Europe.

The results of an integrated choice and latent variable model (ICLV) applied to stated preference (SP) data collected from 1691 residents of Sweden show that, depending on place of origin in Sweden, in response to a set of innovations, including reduced travel time emanating from ongoing infrastructure investments, and the introduction of new, more comfortable trains, the share of plane users willing to switch to night trains to Central Europe could reach 20–30% and to Southern Europe, 6–10%.

Method
Web-based Qualtrics survey was used to collect the stated preferences of respondents.

QuoteThe survey was administrated in the 13 southernmost of Sweden's 21 counties by the market research company Norstat during May 2021.

An example question is given below.


Image: Creative Commons Licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Findings

Results for this Swedish study were a little different to that for the Netherlands research (Kantelaar et al, 2022). Changing of trains is probably not relevant in the Australian context given our geography. Travel time and easy booking appear to be important.

Importance rankings during the booking process

Image: Creative Commons Licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Cost and travel time were the most important factors. Interestingly, there are some clues that might explain why NSW trains have seen spikes during events, Christmas season etc. Disruptions and delays for planes seem to be perceived more negatively than for trains.

Quote from: Curtale 2023The sensitivity of travel time was different depending on the mode of transport, with travel time perceived more negatively while travelling by plane.

Just having easy booking was enough to move some people across from planes to trains. In my own experience, booking the XPT was not easy, and it was not easy to compare prices with what classes were available. Not everything seems to be advertised via the NSW TrainLink website, and eventually a phone call had to be made to check and sort things out.

Quote from: Curtale 2023For medium-distance destinations, easy booking would influence up to 6% of current airline passengers to shift to night trains

Authors also suggest a flight tax would cause a passenger shift. This is unlikely in the Australian context, as there are already taxes and fees incorporated into the flight ticket price, however a carbon tax or charges would likely have a similar effect of shifting passengers to rail.

In contrast to the Netherlands research, this study finds that reduced travel time is important. If rail travel between Melbourne and Sydney could be reduced from 11 to 6 hours, a reduction of 5 hours, it could well become an attractive option. Further studies like this survey method could be used in Australia to quantify this - there should be no shortage of airline passengers to survey, given how busy the Melbourne-Sydney flight corridor is.

Importantly, all of this could potentially be achieved without HSR. Further work, probably with surveys and focus groups, will need to be done to test/check/validate these findings for the Australian context.

Quote from: Curtale 2023Results show that through a reduction of travel time, altered price relations with effective pricing policies and an increase in comfort level of night trains, a significant number of airline passengers might shift to night trains.

Annual Financial Cost of NSW $60 weekly Government Toll Cap for Sydney (2023-2024)
NSW Government - Service NSW

Motorists to get $561 million cash back under toll cap
https://www.service.nsw.gov.au/news/motorists-to-get-561-million-cash-back-under-toll-cap#

Quote16 September 2023
Almost three-quarters of a million motorists will qualify for toll relief under the Minns Labor Government's $60 toll cap, confirmed to begin on January 1.

Focused on easing the cost-of-living crisis for families, NSW Budget 2023-24 allocates $561 million over two years to the toll cap.

An election promise delivered, the toll cap will benefit an estimated 720,000 toll account owners, with motorists able to claim back spend above $60 a week via a quarterly refund from Service NSW.

$561 million / 720,000 toll account holders / 2 years = $389.58 average cost per motorist

QuoteKellyville and its surrounding suburbs are where most drivers by number will benefit, with 13,240 toll accounts to claim an average $399 a year each – or almost $5.3 million across the postcode in 2024.

^ Kellyville has a metro station, with trains every 4 minutes or so.

Updated

The rise of megaprojects Counting the costs
The Grattan Institute (2020)
Authors: Marion Terrill, Owain Emslie, and Greg Moran
URL: https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2020-11/apo-nid309282.pdf

Grattan report looks at the recent history of Megaprojects, and finds indicators for cost-overruns such as commitment before evaluation, poor governance, skipping gateway stages, unexpected discovery of utilities or contamination, lack of competitive bidding process and so on.

Sometimes the costs escalated so much, that the value of the entire project's benefits were wiped out entirely.

Quote2.2 Big projects overrun more often and by more.

Bigger projects tend to be more complex, so it's not surprising that they are more prone to cost overruns. They also tend to overrun by more, in dollar terms, and often in percentage terms as well (Figure 2.1).

The relationship between project size and overruns is not new. In 2014, Danish economic geographer Bent Flyvbjerg coined 'the iron law of megaprojects: over budget, over time, over and over again'. Our 2016 report found that a 10 percent increase in project size (measured by cost estimate when first under construction) was associated with a 6 percent higher chance of a cost overrun.

(Page 16)

Sydney Rail Clearways (2004-2014)

The Sydney Rail Clearways program was a cluster of microprojects that untangled Sydneys different rail lines into sectors, and removed bottlenecks and pinch points. Examples of works included adding platforms, turnbacks, sidings, selective track amplification, and train stabling.

QuoteThe Rail Clearways Programme was conceived in 2004 with the aim of easing congestion of Sydney's suburban railway network, by reducing the amount of infrastructure shared by multiple services. The disparate projects at pinch points throughout the network were designed to increase passenger capacity and improve reliability. All projects were delivered by the Transport Construction Authority until it was subsumed in November 2011 by Transport for New South Wales. A new timetable was introduced in October 2013 that realised the benefit of many of the projects, and by January 2014—the programme was complete.

Wikipedia URL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_Clearways_Program

North Coast Connect - Project business case evaluation summary
Infrastructure Australia (2020)
URL: https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/north-coast-connect
URL: https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-03/North%20Coast%20Connect%20Evaluation%20Summary.pdf

Summary

The following IA business case evaluation was from a submission by a private consortium. The general idea was to reduce travel time to the Sunshine Coast to below 60 minutes. A tilt train operation was proposed with vehicles capable of 165 km/hr on the route. Unlike what happens on the Perth Joondalup and Mandurah lines, a poor frequency was proposed of 30 minutes during peak hour and one hour during the off-peak.

The indicative timeframe for construction starting was 2025 with project completion by 2034, a. nine year project window. The BCR was negative at the 7% level, and a BCR for the 4% level was not given.

Overall the costs for this project were roughly estimated at $6 billion, with sensitive environmental sites along the route being complicating factors. The lack of endorsement of this project by IA and the long timeframes involved suggest that the DSCRL project to the Sunshine Coast will almost certainly be done in stages over a long period of time.

Further, the very poor frequency also likely contributed to a value of time savings estimate that was underwhelming. Rail is very expensive, so where it is built it should be given the best chance of being well-used. Poor frequency acts against that.



Notes

The North Coast Connect Consortium of SMEC, Stockland, Urbis and KPMG explored upgrades to the North Coast Rail connection to facilitate faster passenger rail services between Brisbane and the regions of Moreton Bay and the Sunshine Coast.

The North Coast Connect business case steering committee included representatives from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Sunshine Coast Council, Morton Bay Council and Brisbane City Council.

Fast Rail: North Coast Connect – Fast Rail from Brisbane to Moreton Bay and the Sunshine Coast
https://fastrail.com.au/fast-rail-prospectus