RAIL - Back On Track Forum

https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/About-us/Corporate-information/Publications/Regional-Transport-Plans

Regional Transport Plans

" The consultation draft for the South East Queensland Regional Transport Plans has been released and is available on the TMR website, using the following link: https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/About-us/Corporate-information/Publications/Regional-Transport-Plans

We would value your input on the draft plan during the consultation period, which closes on 1 March 2019. Any comments can be provided to the team at tmr_regional_transport_plans@tmr.qld.gov.au, or contact Andrew Gilroy, Project Director on 3066 1626 if you have any questions or concerns regarding the SEQ Regional Transport Plans. "

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1685275590373654529

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1685276764560629761

Regional Transport Plans

https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/About-us/Corporate-information/Publications/Regional-Transport-Plans

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/98326

South East Queensland is growing
30th July 2023

Deputy Premier, Minister for State Development, Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning and Minister Assisting the Premier on Olympic and Paralympic Games Infrastructure
The Honourable Dr Steven Miles

. SEQ's population will increase by almost 2.2 million to around 6 million by 2046, new figures show.

. SEQ's population is currently around 3.8 million.

Queensland's population is growing, 6 million people will call South East Queensland home by 2046 - that's 2.2 million more South East Queenslanders.

The population is growing, but it is also changing.

Over the next 25 years the number of older people aged 65 years or older will increase.

The number of one person households will increase substantially from 23.4 per cent in 2021 to 40.5 per cent in 2046.

These changes mean we need more smaller homes in the mix, to deliver more housing options.

The Growth projections have been confirmed ahead of the release of the State Government's updated draft SEQ Regional Plan. Updating the plan was an outcome of the Housing Summit.

Attribute to Queensland Deputy Premier Steven Miles:

"People are moving to Queensland in droves and who can blame them," Mr Miles said.

"We are in our decade of opportunity. We have a strong economy. We have a 10-year pipeline of infrastructure projects in the lead up to and beyond Brisbane 2032. And we are creating good, secure jobs in the key industries that will help us decarbonise.

"Thanks to all of this, and our great Queensland lifestyle, we've seen record levels of net interstate migration and now increasing international immigration.

"Why live in Melbourne when you could live in SEQ?

"Because our population is growing, we need to get ready to build more of the Queensland we love.

"Investment in infrastructure is also vital to support growth. That's why the Queensland Government has committed to a record $88.7 billion four-year state-wide building program, including the $20.3 billion Big Build capital investment announced in this year's State Budget.

"Our population is also changing. More people are living alone.

"The number of one person households will increase from 23 to 45 per cent in 2046.

"So even without counting the massive population increase, we still need more homes to house the same number of people.

"To meet the needs of our growing Queensland and ensure we maintain our great lifestyle, we need more housing supply and a better mix of housing options.

"This means building more units, townhouses and terraces.

"My elderly neighbour shouldn't have to clean a four-bedroom, two storey house. They should be able to downsize to a unit or terrace, without being forced to move away from their community.

"We're intend on releasing the draft SEQ regional plan for feedback very soon."

ENDS

Regional breakdowns:

Brisbane City Council - Increase of 457,000 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 1,264,000 people in 2021 and 1,721,000 people in 2046)

City of Gold Coast - Increase of 381,200 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 633,800 people in 2021 and 1,015,000 people in 2046)

Ipswich City Council - Increase of 294,700 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 233,300 people in 2021 and 528,000 people in 2046)

Lockyer Valley Regional Council - Increase of 24,200 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 41,800 people in 2021 and 66,000 people in 2046)

Logan City Council - Increase of 311,300 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 350,700 people in 2021 and 662,000 people in 2046)

Moreton Bay Council - Increase of 302,600 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 484,400 people in 2021 and 787,000 people in 2046)

Noosa Shire Council - Increase of 18,677 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 56,873 people in 2021 and 75,550 people in 2046)

Redland City Council - Increase of 50,549 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 161,730 people in 2021 and 212,279 people in 2046)

Scenic Rim Council - Increase of 23,137 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 43,595 people in 2021 and 66,732 people in 2046)

Somerset Regional Council - Increase of 15,261 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 25,391 people in 2021 and 40,652 people in 2046)

Sunshine Coast Council - Increase of 167,616 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 346,648 people in 2021 and 514, 264 people in 2046)

Toowoomba Regional Council - Increase of 76,229 people between 2021 and 2046 (based on 143,994 people in 2021 and 220,223 people in 2046)

For a 2046 estimate based on the numbers given:



It's hard to see any of this road traffic growth being out-built by TMR Road Engineers without a high-quality high-speed high-capacity Regional Rapid Rail service that outdoes the car and motorways.   The traffic growth for the Gold Coast to 2046 as compared to today would be like building 9 new Gateway Motorways. How realistic is that? 

Notes on Input Assumptions
Figures are estimates for daily weekday trips.
Total trip pie (all modes) is estimated on each resident generating 3.3 trips per weekday.
PT trips are based on a PT=25% level. This level is likely to vary across LGAs, and be much lower for LGAs further away from Brisbane. Members can substitute lower or higher values here.

Estimated car trips are simply Total Trip Pie minus PT trips.
Roads like the Gateway motorway carry about 100,000 trips per day.

A population of that size using BAU planning approach and investment will be an utter disaster!!

They truly have NFI!!

QuoteA population of that size using BAU planning approach and investment will be an utter disaster!!

They truly have NFI!!

+1

Just BCC alone - having an increase of +457,000 people implies 1.1 million new car trips per day.

Given that the Gateway Motorway can do 100,000 trips per day, dividing one value into the other suggests the equivalent of 11 x Gateway Motorways to handle this traffic using the car mode.

That would be equal to opening one Gateway Motorway every two years for 23 years to 2046.

We have not even considered in this simple model flows from surrounding LGAs into the Brisbane LGA from say Ipswich, Logan, MBRC. Now would be a good time to consider whether local CBDs can be set up in these LGAs similar to Sydney.

Sent to all outlets:

Are 1 million new car trips per day set to flood the Brisbane LGA?

31st July 2023

RAIL Back On Track asks Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government Minister for Transport if they are ready for 1 million new daily car trips to flood into the Brisbane LGA.

On Sunday, Deputy Premier Dr Steven Miles released the latest population growth estimates for SEQ (1). The figures show an expected increase of 457,000 people into the Brisbane City Council LGA.

After adjusting for public transport use, these figures suggest an additional 1.1 million car trips per day will flood into the Brisbane City Council and State-controlled road network. To put this into perspective, this is equivalent to 11 Gateway Motorway's worth of traffic. This figure does not include traffic from LGAs outside of Brisbane such as Gold Coast, Logan, Ipswich or Moreton Bay Region heading into Brisbane.

Can Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government please advise if our figures are broadly correct, and if the space and finances are available for constructing ELEVEN (11) Gateway Motorways worth of roads up to 2046 to handle this increased volume of car traffic?

We believe that public and active transport represents the lowest cost path to handling this increased transport task. We need more BUZ routes, Brisbane BRT Metro lines, and train frequency that matches the Perth standard of trains every 15 minutes all day. Better opportunities for cycling and walking are also needed.

Public transport operational funding has been 'cost neutral' for a while now. The impact of this approach is not going to be neutral when Brisbane ratepayers and Queensland taxpayers try to accommodate 1 million new daily car trips using the current roads-first approach.

References:

1. Queensland Government. (2023, 30 July). South East Queensland is growing [Media Release] https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/98326

"The average number of trips undertaken per person per day remained steady at 3.6 from 1992 until 2007, but dropped to 3.3 in 2009." Daily Travel - Brisbane. Travel in South East Queensland, an analysis of travel data from 1992-2009. QLD Department of Transport and Main Roads p.17 https://www.data.qld.gov.au/dataset/2009-south-east-queensland-household-travel-survey/resource/44754dc4-709b-4f56-9029-26e9aa487c64

"The Western Freeway currently carries 75,000 vehicles per day and the Gateway Motorway 100,000 vehicles per day." Western Brisbane Transport Network Investigation. QLD Department of Transport and Main Roads. https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/~/media/Projects/W/Western%20Brisbane%20Transport%20Network%20Investigation/Pdf_wbtni_western_bypass_lr.pdf

Calculations

Additional Car Trip Figure: 457,000 people x 3.3 daily trip generation rate = 1.5 million total trips x 0.75 car mode share = 1,131,075 additional daily car trips. This figure assumes a 25% public transport mode share.

Gateway Motorway Equivalents: 1,131,075 additional daily car trips/100,000 daily car trips on Gateway Motorway = factor of 11x

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There is absolutely no sign of any change toward leading practice by either the ALP nor the LNP.  All we hear is same ol' same ol' without any recognition that our city/transport planning is absolutely cooked.

It is soul sapping.

QuoteThat would be equal to opening one Gateway Motorway every two years for 23 years to 2046.

Doesn't this model assume that:

- All roads in the brisbane LGA are already at capacity?

- All car journeys require a motorway type journey?

For example,
This area in Ellen Grove would be a likely candidate for infill over the next couple of decades, and in fact you can already see a few developments happening.
A likely car trip would be someone driving 3km and doing the grocery shopping at Forest Lake Plaza.

Will there need to be a gateway type motorway built to accommodate those types of trips?

Second way of looking at this.

457,000 extra people in 23 years predicted.

However,

23 years ago the population of BCC was 873,000
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2001/LGA31000

The current BCC population is 1,284,698
https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/about-council/governance-and-strategy/business-in-brisbane/business-opportunities/brisbane-community-profiles

1,284,698 - 873,000 = 411,698

So in summary:
- in the past 23 years we had a growth of 411,698
- in the next 23 years we will have a growth of 457,000


Growth will be a little bit higher in the BCC LGA, but still roughly on the long term trend.

So can I ask the question.
Did we build 11 gateways in the past 23 years in the LGA to deal with a similar increase in population? yes/no?

The point is the road network in Brisbane LGA is getting now near capacity.

If you double the population with no change in travel habits (that is lower car trips, much greater public and active transport share) road capacity to the equivalent of around 11 Gateways will be required.  It is rhetorical not literal.

The other significant observation for me is how much Ipswich and Logan are being shafted.

QuoteThere is absolutely no sign of any change toward leading practice by either the ALP nor the LNP. 

All we hear is same ol' same ol' without any recognition that our city/transport planning is absolutely cooked.

Jonno, it is worth reflecting on just how many road projects have happened or are proposed. Have I missed any??

We've had:

- Gateway Motorway Upgrade (permanent construction project this)

- Pacific Motorway Upgrade (another permanent construction project)

- More Pacific motorway upgrades near Daisy Hill (proposed)

- Inner City Bypass widening (2018)

- Port of Brisbane Motorway

- Ipswich Motorway Upgrade

- Legacy Way Tunnel

- AirportLink

- Clem7 Tunnel

- Kingsford Smith Drive widening

- Wynnum Road widening

- Bus lanes removed, including Coro Drive

- The Go Between Bridge

- Centenary Motorway Upgrade (proposed)

- Roads to Brisbane Airport upgraded

- Duplication of the Houghton Highway to Redcliffe

- Second M1 on the Gold Coast

- Another road for near Caboolture

- Bruce Highway to Pine Rivers Upgrade

- Tunnel under Gympie Road proposal

Does anyone REALLY KNOW why in 2023, Queensland Transport remains SO car centric in its thinking???    It would be interesting to know what the barrier(s) to better thinking and planning actually is/are???

Quote from: SteelPan on August 16, 2023, 00:45:07 AMDoes anyone REALLY KNOW why in 2023, Queensland Transport remains SO car centric in its thinking???    It would be interesting to know what the barrier(s) to better thinking and planning actually is/are???

My guess is that it keeps members of parliament in a job. Until the majority of voters tell them otherwise they will continue to do the same old congestion busting road expansions because it's worked up until now.

Updated - infographic now comes up. Removed original post.

South East Queensland is growing

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/98331

====

Compare the two and see if any differences?

There might have been a typo or something in the first version?

Original MR re-issued with the breakdown figures separated from the media release addendum and placed into an infographic pdf.

Extract of Original

Quotehttps://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/98326

South East Queensland is growing
30th July 2023

Deputy Premier, Minister for State Development, Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning and Minister Assisting the Premier on Olympic and Paralympic Games Infrastructure
The Honourable Dr Steven Miles

. SEQ's population will increase by almost 2.2 million to around 6 million by 2046, new figures show.

. SEQ's population is currently around 3.8 million.