RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Now only if people were computers that made decisions purely and only based on mathematical analysis of travel times!

QuoteNow only if people were computers that made decisions purely and only based on mathematical analysis of travel times!

(bolding added)

In a world where there are many complicated factors, it is good to have a baseline. That is to build your decisions on what you know will happen most of the time or on average. The alternative is to build your decisions around achieving some sort of heroic exception contrary to what we already know. You might want to call this the 'hope based' or 'faith based' planning approach...   

Time isn't the only factor. For example, no one will catch the train if the fare is say $100 each way. That would be unreasonable.

But time IMHO is the dominant one when considering PT vs alternatives. Or even between a current PT mode and a future upgraded one (e.g. buses to existing rail on the Sunshine Coast versus buses to a new train line built closer to the Coast).

Jonno, what do you think the dominant factor is when deciding to choose PT over the alternatives? Or do you perhaps think all the factors all equally contribute? I think it would help members understand what your position is.

I think most (but not all) of the value in the Direct Sunshine Coast line project comes from a much faster door-to-door journey time for current PT users and new PT users compared to what is on offer today. Without this, the project would be more of a slow leisure amusement than a public transport solution.

We both agree that PT needs to be better, faster, more frequent, serve built up areas... I don't see quantifying and comparing as contrary to doing that.

Quote from: #Metro on May 28, 2023, 10:15:00 AMThe main blockade IMO with the Sunshine Coast is that it is seen as Safe Blue Team Territory. Spending money there has little relative political benefit versus other areas like marginal seat electorates on the electorate map.

That may have been the case once upon a time, but is no longer the case (on the State level at least; Federal is a different story). Nicklin is now one of the most marginal seats in the state, and red team probably need to hold it if they're a reasonable chance of forming a majority government in 2024. Caloundra is also quite marginal.

Just FYI, from my SVG Column dated 15 Sept 2021.

Jason Hunt (ALP) secured Caloundra with 41.31% of the vote, winning by 1631 votes on a two-party preferred basis.

Robert Skelton (ALP) won Nicklin (based around Nambour) with 34.45% of the vote, and it was only one of two seats in Queensland where the winning candidate trailed in the primary vote.

He won by 84 votes.

If I was Catherine King, I would make the $1.6 billion federal contribution deal conditional on the Queensland Government beginning immediately a further business case for the line continuation Birtinya to Maroochydore. No agreement on a business case for the line all the way to Maroochydore, no $1.6 billion from the feds.

It has just dawned why the state government has got rid of the name CAMCOS in favor of Direct Sunshine Coast Line. The sticking point in CAMCOS is the letter 'M' (Maroochydore). In recent times, Minister Bailey has been referring to a railway extension from Beerwah to "towards the coast", which we now know is Birtinya. (Near enough is close enough).

^

Yo, it had dawned on me as well 

Quote from: ozbob on May 11, 2023, 00:43:48 AM... 

Even the name ' Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line ' is a deliberate manipulation to obfuscate IMHO.

It is difficult to have much confidence or trust in the Government or DTMR these days ...

    

Quote from: achiruel on May 28, 2023, 18:29:40 PM

Quote from: #Metro on May 28, 2023, 10:15:00 AMThe main blockade IMO with the Sunshine Coast is that it is seen as Safe Blue Team Territory. Spending money there has little relative political benefit versus other areas like marginal seat electorates on the electorate map.

That may have been the case once upon a time, but is no longer the case (on the State level at least; Federal is a different story). Nicklin is now one of the most marginal seats in the state, and red team probably need to hold it if they're a reasonable chance of forming a majority government in 2024. Caloundra is also quite marginal.

But the GC is safe blue territory as well and they haven't had a shortage of projects!

From the recent opinion piece in the Gold Coast Bulletin.

Quote from: Mark BaileyAs a Gold Coast born lad, I remember when the Gold Coast was still pretty sleepy and relatively undiscovered but those daysare now long gone and no-one can bring them back. Anyone who says they can is pulling your leg.

Perhaps some regional favouritism going on?

Bailey is one grub of a politician. Having met the man twice, he cannot be trusted and loves playing politics.

It is good there is noise being made about this in the lead up to next years State election.

FFS just get the thing built.

Quote from: RowBro on May 29, 2023, 11:07:28 AMFrom the recent opinion piece in the Gold Coast Bulletin.

Quote from: Mark BaileyAs a Gold Coast born lad, I remember when the Gold Coast was still pretty sleepy and relatively undiscovered but those daysare now long gone and no-one can bring them back. Anyone who says they can is pulling your leg.

Perhaps some regional favouritism going on?

Without a doubt.

Bus and rail infrastructure spending on Gold Coast compared to Sunshine Coast was almost 10x more, over the decade to 2011. Report by Journalist who compared budgets over that period.

Also, that disparity is still applicable today.

For context, we are almost 2/3 population of Gold Coast.

Quote from: Gazza on May 29, 2023, 10:53:59 AM

Quote from: achiruel on May 28, 2023, 18:29:40 PM

Quote from: #Metro on May 28, 2023, 10:15:00 AMThe main blockade IMO with the Sunshine Coast is that it is seen as Safe Blue Team Territory. Spending money there has little relative political benefit versus other areas like marginal seat electorates on the electorate map.

That may have been the case once upon a time, but is no longer the case (on the State level at least; Federal is a different story). Nicklin is now one of the most marginal seats in the state, and red team probably need to hold it if they're a reasonable chance of forming a majority government in 2024. Caloundra is also quite marginal.

But the GC is safe blue territory as well and they haven't had a shortage of projects!

I can't pretend to know the inner workings of the ALP, but maybe they think they've got more chance of winning GC seats than retaining their two on the SC?

Coomera and Currumbin are quite marginal for the LNP, and Theodore isn't far off. Maybe Burleigh as well, but the ALP had the benefit of a very high profile local candidate in 2020.

They already hold Gaven. Winning a couple more would eat into what has traditionally been LNP/Liberal heartland.

Couriermail --> Fears Brisbane 2032 Games will fail without key Sunshine Coast rail investment, says council

Quote... The Sunshine Coast Rail is one of the projects subject to the federal government's 90-day infrastructure review, sparking fears it could fall victim to cuts or be shortened to stop before Maroochydore.

Sunshine Coast Council's Olympics program lead Grantley Switzer said upgrading the rail line between Beerwah and Nambour, as well as extending the line to link Beerwah to Caloundra, Kawana and Maroochydore, had to be a priority.

"There is great risk to the success of the 2032 Games if these transport projects are not delivered," he said.

"This is our moment to see vast improvements in major transport connectivity for the Sunshine Coast, and we are looking forward to further details from the state and federal governments on how and when that investment will occur." ...

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1663177518206304258

ABC Sunshine Coast afternoon presenter, Ann Gaffney, will have as her special guest this afternoon the Mayor of the Sunshine Coast, Mark Jamieson to talk about rail woes for his city.

https://twitter.com/MarkBaileyMP/status/1663368341883613184

Bailey doing what he does best, being a total grub of a politician.

They have had 8 years and done sweet f&*k all for the Sunshine Coast.

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1663391246147293189

Quote from: Stillwater on May 30, 2023, 11:25:33 AMABC Sunshine Coast afternoon presenter, Ann Gaffney, will have as her special guest this afternoon the Mayor of the Sunshine Coast, Mark Jamieson to talk about rail woes for his city.

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/south-queensland-drive

(3pm - 6pm)

Mayor Mark Jamieson interview is on after 5pm.
Council is raising concerns over ability to get the rail link in time for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Annie stating IV in about 15 minutes, so around 5:21pm.
Started: 5:24:50pm.

The two take-out messages from Mayor Jamieson's interview is that the cost of CAMCOS is not $3.2 billion, but double that and maybe a bit more and now is the time to build it because it won't be any cheaper.

The interview lead-in included a clip from the Premier, who sounded less than enthusiastic. "There is more work to be done and we will respond in the future." (She referenced the business case.)

Meanwhile, Rob Skelton (ALP Nicklin) says he is lobbying strongly for duplication to Nambour, so do we have a situation where there are competing priorities? Mr Skelton said a lot more money would be needed from the feds because the state could not bear a significant cost on its own.

Mayor Jamieson said the SC was growing fast and made a significant contribution to the SEQ economy and required significant spending on infrastructure to link the SC with Brisbane, but also to allow the opportunity for Brisbane residents to travel to the SC efficiently and in comfort.

"Adding extra lanes to the Bruce Highway is not the answer, because once you finish, you have got to start all over again."

While money was an issue, Cr Jamieson said, what's required is the political will to get the project underway.

The mayor's statement summarised a report from SCC to a Senate Committee examining preparedness for the Olympic and Paralympic Games. The other point made is that the SC needs an extra 1800 rooms/apartments to house athletes (at Maroochydore) and spectators. Jamieson equated that to an extra 10 hotels at various sites that the council had identified.

Interview ABC Sunshine Coast Radio Queensland Southern Drive 30th May 2023

Host Annie Gaffney with Sunshine Coast Council Mayor Mark Jamieson

Interview --> https://backontrack.org/docs/abcsc/abcsc_mj30may23.mp3 MP3 10.6MB

Sent to all outlets:

Sunshine/North Coast Rail Funding Available - Queensland Government Choosing to Waste It

31st May 2023

Sunshine Coast Mayor Mark Jamieson said on ABC Radio Sunshine Coast (1) yesterday the Sunshine Coast was growing fast, made a significant contribution to the SEQ economy and that urgent spending on infrastructure was needed to link the Sunshine Coast to Brisbane whilst allowing Brisbane residents to travel to the coast efficiently, safely and in comfort.

He also correctly noted that "Adding extra lanes to the Bruce Highway is not the answer, because once you finish, you have got to start all over again."

In the same segment the Queensland Premier sounded less than enthusiastic stating "There is more work to be done and we will respond in the future."

In a sure sign that the Queensland Government priorities are wrong, rail and public transport projects/funding are being questioned and/or delayed across Queensland whilst road widening projects are being fast tracked.

There is train loads of research and studies showing that attempting to "bust congestion" with more roads only induces the existing population to drive more, increases congestion and for no economic benefit. The point that Mayor Jamieson was making.

When Engineers Australia (2) call out

" Increasing capacity for urban road networks induces demand and is a major reason for increased traffic on the network. Evidence of induced traffic demand has existed for more than 20 years."

and

"This makes attempting to "bust traffic congestion" through road construction, self-defeating. In this context, Australia's past transport investment strategy may be seen as questionable."

It is time to stop this double standard in infrastructure planning and funding.

Added together with the burden on our health system from our car-dependent cities and towns this makes continuing to expand of our roads to "bust congestion" a clear case of financial negligence.

Yes that's right! The vast majority of our government transport budgets is creating even worse congestion for no economic improvement and a greater burden on our health system.

The Queensland Government has more than enough transport funding to build the Sunshine Coast Rail all the way to Maroochydore and duplicate the North Coast line to Nambour. It is just choosing to fund the creating of more congestion and transport road failure first.

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org


References:

1. Interview ABC Sunshine Coast Radio Queensland Southern Drive 30th May 2023
Host Annie Gaffney with Sunshine Coast Council Mayor Mark Jamieson
Interview --> https://backontrack.org/docs/abcsc/abcsc_mj30may23.mp3 MP3 10.6MB

2. Urban Transport Systems
A Transport Australia Society Discussion Paper
December 2021
https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-01/Urban-Transport-Systems-TAS-Discussion-Paper-December-2021-revised.pdf

Facebook ...

https://twitter.com/railbotforum/status/1663614020052725761

 

Quote from: ozbob on May 31, 2023, 00:09:11 AMInterview ABC Sunshine Coast Radio Queensland Southern Drive 30th May 2023

Host Annie Gaffney with Sunshine Coast Council Mayor Mark Jamieson

Interview --> https://backontrack.org/docs/abcsc/abcsc_mj30may23.mp3 MP3 10.6MB

Excellent interview by the Mayor and Annie.  Comprehensive, well researched.  Thank you.

We will know when the state budget is brought down the size of the surplus, but reportedly Queensland will have a surplus of $10 billion as of 30 June 2023. Also, it is likely not to have spent all the money the feds have made available for various infrastructure projects. While Queensland is asking for more money from Canberra, it can't spend what its getting now fast enough.

In a high inflation environment the government should be running a surplus.

This month, the Queensland Government is expected to release details of its plans for additional housing estate sites across SEQ, including and especially on the Sunshine Coast. The government is admitting that the Shaping SEQ/SEQ Plan released in 2017 contained benchmark assumptions around housing and population that need to be revised and addressed.

State Development says on its website: "A review of Shaping SEQ was announced as an outcome of the 2022 Queensland Housing Summit. The review will be focused on ensuring that Shaping SEQ provides the right framework to enable sufficient housing supply (and choice) across the region."

Now here is the interesting bit:
"In addition, an infrastructure assessment will be undertaken in support of the Shaping SEQ review, recognising the importance of alignment between land use planning and infrastructure planning. It will ensure that recent infrastructure planning is reflected in the updated regional planning framework and will be released as a supplement to the plan." The expected release date is "mid-year".

It is yet another plan – all of which say roughly the same thing ... we are in deep doodoo.

So where is the SEQ Infrastructure Assessment Review at? And what will be its impact on the Sunshine Coast, its connectivity and lifestyle? There seems no correlation between planning to put back to 2040 completion of heavy rail components while, at the same time, approving new housing estates for tens of thousands more residents.

Even for those of us who are not town planners, there seems to be a train wreak about to happen, yet the Palaszczuk Government is in denial .... nothing to see here.

https://www.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/planning/seq-land-supply

Another plan!

Could we have the head exploding emoji please?

 

Quote from: Stillwater on May 31, 2023, 07:29:37 AMWe will know when the state budget is brought down the size of the surplus, but reportedly Queensland will have a surplus of $10 billion as of 30 June 2023. Also, it is likely not to have spent all the money the feds have made available for various infrastructure projects. While Queensland is asking for more money from Canberra, it can't spend what its getting now fast enough.

I have a couple of ideas..

#2023_24 #QldBudget wish list:

1. #2tracks #rail duplication to Landsborough promised by red team by 2012.
2. Rail duplication Landsborough-Nambour promised by red team by 2020.
3. #Camcos #dscl rail Beerwah-Maroochydore promised by red team by 2020.
4. 9 extra trains to Sunshine Coast (5 southbound, 4 northbound) promised by red team by 2015-16

The fabric of society frays the extent to which we cannot trust the word of those elected to represent us.

Couriermail --> 'Come clean': Demands for rail to Maroochydore to be confirmed $

QuoteThe Sunshine Coast Rail extension continues to be under a cloud, as pressure grows on the State Government to confirm it will go all the way to Maroochydore.

The Sunshine Coast Rail extension continues to be under a cloud, as pressure grows on the State Government to confirm it will go all the way to Maroochydore.

A recently released government report refers to the rail line extending to "the southern Gold Coast", and includes a map for a transport corridor extending from Beerwah to Maroochydore.

It also backs a separate, coastal transport corridor linking Birtinya and Maroochydore.

LNP Fairfax MP Ted O'Brien said he feared it meant the government would cut the rail line short of Maroochydore, but state Transport Minister Mark Bailey said the Southern Sunshine Coast Public Transport Study "clearly" shows a corridor running from Beerwah to Maroochydore. ...

Well, it is Birtyinya or bust by the looks of things, if it gets a start.
Mr Bailey is unable to state the rail will go to Maroochydore. He knows it isn't IMHO.

*"The Southern Sunshine Coast Public Transport Study clearly outlines a vision for a Centre Corridor running from Beerwah to Maroochydore and a Coastal Corridor running from Caloundra to Maroochydore," Mr Bailey said.

"The first stage of the Coastal Corridor project would focus on Maroochydore to Birtinya, as recommended in the Sunshine Coast Council's mass transport options analysis."

*https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/come-clean-demands-for-rail-to-maroochydore-to-be-confirmed/news-story/60a7eddd04b9599f5a117b040aaaf2f2

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1664265689702739971

The ONLY KPI that matters here is km double track built.

QuoteMr O'Brien said the report did not state the rail line would extend all the way to Maroochydore, just the southern Gold Coast, before immediately referencing a "high-frequency public transport "high-frequency public transport connection between Maroochydore and Birtinya".

A 'high frequency connection' for all we know could be a dressed-up bus with pictures of trains on it from Maroochydore to Birtinya, coming every 15 minutes...

Sent to all outlets:

'Come clean': Demands for rail to Maroochydore to be confirmed

2nd June 2023

Bad Morning,

The Couriermail has today called for clarification on the State Government's intent for the proposed railway from Beerwah to Maroochydore, the so called Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line. 

'Come clean': Demands for rail to Maroochydore to be confirmed
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/come-clean-demands-for-rail-to-maroochydore-to-be-confirmed/news-story/60a7eddd04b9599f5a117b040aaaf2f2

It is increasingly clear that  this railway from Beerwah to Maroochydore is not going to be built any time soon.  The recently published Southern Sunshine Coast Public Transport Strategy ( https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/about-us/corporate-information/publications/southern-sunshine-coast-public-transport-strategy ) yet another strategy/plan in a rather long list of such documents, indicates that the railway might go to Birtinya, not Maroochydore.

It is time for the Queensland Government to be honest with the citizens of the Sunshine Coast.  The upgrade of the Sunshine Coast line north of Beerburrum has been cut back to Beerwah, similarly the proposed railway to Maroochydore is to suffer a similar fate - cut back to Birtinya.

The Gold Coast continues to gain favour with the Queensland Government, the transport needs of the Sunshine Coast are lost in an endless cycle of plans/strategies/studies.

Appalling stuff.

Not very cheered,

Regards
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Attached: https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?msg=271478
& https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?msg=271452

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware

QuoteIn the computer industry, vaporware (or vapourware) is a product, typically computer hardware or software, that is announced to the general public but is late or never actually manufactured nor officially cancelled. Use of the word has broadened to include products such as automobiles.

Facebook ...

Quote from: #Metro on May 31, 2023, 13:00:45 PMAnother plan!

Could we have the head exploding emoji please?