RAIL - Back On Track Forum

So the State & Federal Governments want to pour several hundred million $ into expanding the Centenary Hwy. How about a Centenary Busway or Transitway instead? Start at Legacy Way, run along the eastern side of the Centenary Hwy to Richlands Station.

The biggest obstacle would be getting buses to/from the busway into Legacy Way, but I'm sure there's some engineering brains around that could find a solution. Maybe a tunnel under the westbound lanes, just past the exhaust tower?

Stations and Waverley Rd, Moggill Rd (with on/off ramps for 443), Fig Tree Pocket Rd, Sinnamon Rd/DFO, Bellwood St/Centenary Shopping Centre, Sumners/Monier Rd, Richlands Station.

Ensure it is constructed with future conversion to BERT buses.

I think we've discussed this idea before. I can't remember what thread it was in but it was in response to someone suggesting a rail line down the Centenary Highway median. Since that is ludicrously difficult and unlikely to happen we discussed in detail ideas for a busway along a similar alignment. If I find the thread I'll post the stuff in here

Just put Brisbane Metro Bus out there. That would then justify a 'Metro lane' out there and along Coronation Drive.

I thought I saw something somewhere about the eventual Centenary bridge duplication involving transit lanes on the bridge? (Prepared to be wrong on that one.)

Bus misses out, we did try a few years back, but TMR et al not interested ....

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https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/96876

Centenary Bridge upgrade on the way
27th December 2022

Premier and Minister for the Olympic and Paralympic Games
The Honourable Annastacia Palaszczuk

The Centenary Bridge upgrade is a step closer with the awarding of the construction contract.

Premier and Minister for the Olympics and Paralympics, and Member for Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk announced it's been awarded to Georgiou Group and BMD Constructions, as a joint venture.

"My government has a strong track record of backing Queensland workers, which is why I'm pleased this joint venture will support good local jobs in our community," the Premier said.

"This upgrade will see a new three lane Centenary Bridge built in Jindalee, as well an  upgrade of the existing bridge, meaning you'll get home safer and sooner.

"More than 85,000 cars use this bridge daily, and that number will increase.

"This is an important step towards busting congestion through our growing region."

Speaker of the House of Representatives and Member for Oxley Milton Dick celebrated the announcement.

"The Centenary Motorway is the key link between Brisbane and the western suburbs," Mr Dick said.

"As our community continues to grow, we need transport to service the needs of commuters, holidaymakers, freight transport and business operators.

"I'm proud the Albanese Government is contributing to such a vital upgrade, making a difference in the lives of those who use the motorway."

State Member for Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh said it was a belated Christmas gift for the community.

"I have advocated for this project since I was elected, as I know how desperately our community wants shovels in the ground," Ms Pugh said.

"Previous tender submissions came in low, and another even promised to build two new bridges with the funding – both options had to be thoroughly explored to make sure we were getting the best value for taxpayers.

"After consideration, we saw that these tender submissions could not deliver on what was promised. I'm pleased we can now move forward with a reliable, Queensland based joint venture, with over 40 years experience.

"The project will double capacity across the river, as well as improve access to Amazon Place Park while preserving the much-loved Jindalee Skate Park.

"We know how important it is to include safe options for cyclists and footpath users, especially those who travel on two wheels, in a wheelchair, mobility device, or pushing a pram.

"Construction will start next year, and I know locals are just as excited as I am."

The upgrade includes a new 3-lane northbound bridge, rehabilitation of the existing bridge to 3 lanes southbound, and opportunities for improved active transport.

The Federal and Queensland Governments are jointly funding the $298.5 million project.

This extra capacity will mean greater efficiency and reduced travel-time between the  CBD and western suburbs, between local destinations, and along the Centenary Motorway.

For more information, visit Centenary Bridge Upgrade | Department of Transport and Main Roads (tmr.qld.gov.au), call 3066 4338, or email metropolitanregion@tmr.qld.gov.au

ENDS

Centenary Bridge Upgrade
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/centenary-bridge-upgrade

QuoteThe Centenary Bridge Upgrade in Jindalee proposes a new 3-lane northbound bridge, rehabilitation of the existing bridges to 3 lanes southbound, plus opportunities for improved active transport.

This extra capacity would provide greater efficiency and travel-time reliability between Brisbane's CBD and the western suburbs, between local destinations, and along the entire Centenary Motorway.

The planning study for the Centenary Motorway Upgrade identified possible staged upgrades along the Centenary Motorway from Sumners Road, Darra, to Frederick Street, Toowong. These staged upgrades are aimed at meeting the region's future transport needs and include options focused on safety, improving travel-time reliability, and new active transport opportunities for pedestrians and people who ride bikes.

The Centenary Bridge carries more than 85,000 vehicles a day and current traffic modelling shows that by 2036, around 152,000 vehicles per day will want to cross the bridge.

Best way to solve these ongoing issues in Centenary is to extend the Riverhills express to Darra Station full time. This will provide an alternative route for people by avoiding being in lengthy traffic delays on the freeway as well as Moggill road and Coronation Drive.

I forgot to mention this in the recent bus network review. Not sure if Translink and Council proposed this change as yet in their new network map?

Quote from: ozbob on April 30, 2016, 09:15:31 AMSent to all outlets:

30th April 2016

More Roads Isn't Working

Greetings,

More roads isn't working. Tony Moore in the Brisbane Times rightly points out that 'new solutions' are required for Brisbane's western suburbs. Roads are hopeless during peak hour - the capacity simply isn't there. Busways, which can carry 12 000 passengers/direction/hour have ten times the capacity of a single road lane. Rail is in excess of 24 000 passengers/direction/hour.

There are many solutions, ranging from low-cost bus reforms to higher cost infrastructure spends. At the low-cost end of the scale. It is time Brisbane City Council allowed bus reform to proceed and CentenaryGlider buses to be introduced into Brisbane's west. Unbelievably, Lord Mayor Graham Quirk ruled out a CentenaryGlider just days before the last council elections!

A green bridge linking Bellbowrie to Riverhills is also a good idea. Buses could then feed into Darra station, connecting to trains every few minutes in peak hour. The Queensland Government and Queensland Rail could introduce all day express trains between Ipswich and Brisbane. Trains would leave Milton and run express to Darra, stopping only at Indooroopilly. Gold Coast passengers already enjoy a similar all-day express service.

At the more expensive end of the scale, there are rail and busway solutions. A potential rail solution is to take the Springfield line and extend it through the Centenary Suburbs. Stations could be built at Mt Ommaney, Jindalee and Indooroopilly Shopping Centre, for example. Alternatively,  a Western Busway would allow buses to bypass traffic on Moggill Road and the Centenary Motorway, and feed into Indooroopilly Station, bypassing Coronation Drive Congestion.

Governments at State and Local level have been far too complacent for far too long. Every western suburbs resident should hassle their state and local representatives for public transport upgrades. It is an embarrassment that the Centenary suburbs are a public transport black hole.

Time it was sorted.

Best wishes,
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

Reference:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/new-solutions-needed-for-western-brisbane-traffic-chokepoints-20160429-goins4.html

^ Nostradramus

Centenary Highway is stuffed now.  These bridges will just induce even more congestion.

Utter failure to not include BRT.

https://twitter.com/SteveMinnikinMP/status/1607529305369882624

Earlier thread ...

Bus priority on Centenary Highway

>> https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=13210.msg210912#msg210912

Project Information (Public)
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/centenary-bridge-upgrade

QuoteThe Centenary Bridge carries more than 85,000 vehicles a day and current traffic modelling shows that by 2036, around 152,000 vehicles per day will want to cross the bridge.

Produce a model consistent with TMR's own forecasts:

Apply the compound annual growth formula, re-arrange to pull out the value for R, result below:

Count    Year    Traffic           
0    2022    85,000        Rate (R)    4.24%
1    2023    88,604        Total Growth    79% (round to 80%)
2    2024    92,361           
3    2025    96,277           
4    2026    100,359           
5    2027    104,614           
6    2028    109,050           
7    2029    113,674           
8    2030    118,493           
9    2031    123,518           
10    2032    128,755           
11    2033    134,214           
12    2034    139,905           
13    2035    145,836           
14    2036    152,020 <--- we arrive at the TMR traffic forecast value for 2036 here       

So, the TMR are forecasting an 80% increase in traffic on this road. And a traffic growth rate of 4.24% per year. This is very high, given that normal city growth for Brisbane is about say ~ 2%. I'd guess a lot of that traffic would be generated from around Springfield and the Ipswich LGA?

Comments

What might happen in Year 2036?

Now, if one traffic lane is 1800 vehicles/hour/direction, then 3 lanes are 5400 vehicles/hour/direction.

Let's try and construct what might happen. We need to make some assumptions, so it won't be perfect, but it will give you an idea of the ballpark we are in.

Let's say traffic drops by 50% in the off peak to give 0.5 x 5400 vehicles/hour.

So for 23 hours Off-Peak x 2700 vehicles/hour/direction = 62,100 vehicles in the Off-Peak in one direction

PLUS ADD the one direction peak of 1 hour x 5400 vehicles

= 67,500 vehicles per day one direction. // Double this to get the whole day and both directions

= 135,000 vehicles per day

Now, note that 152,000 per day > 135,000 vehicles per day

Sensitivity
Did we perhaps make an error by assuming a 1-hour peak? Let's extend the peak hour to two hours at maximum volume. What happens then?

So for 22 hours x 2700 vehicles/hour/direction = 59,400 vehicles in the off peak in one direction

PLUS ADD the one direction peak of 2 hours x 5400 vehicles

= 59,400 (22 hrs Off-Peak) + 10,800 (2 hours peak) = 70,200 vehicles per day // Double this to get the whole day and both directions

= 140,400 vehicles per day

Note, that 152,000 per day > 140,400 vehicles per day; We still arrive at the same conclusion that demand cannot be met by this widened road.

Conclusion

By the year 2036, it appears that the motorway over the Centenary Bridge will again be at capacity.

At a rate of 4.24% traffic growth, the bridge can reasonably accomodate a traffic flow of 140,400 vehicles per day. But TMR is forecasting a demand of 152,000 vehicles per day, leaving an estimated excess demand of ~ 11,620 vehicles per day unaccounted for. There is no possibility that the drivers of these 11,620 vehicles can drive in either a 1-hour or a 2-hour peak. The road is at capacity then.

This result is arrived at using a generous assumption that there is a 2-hour peak pushing a maximum of 5400 vehicles/hour across the bridge and that traffic only drops by half in the off-peak. Based on that, there are going to again be calls for another road widening project. Possibly a fourth lane or a new bypass road to duplicate this corridor. Where will it go?

The models do not disagree with what Jonno is often saying on this forum. On the contrary, the models very clearly support the idea that Jonno is probably right.

This road is already at capacity. It is a hopeless mess.  I see it rather regularly.

The bridge upgrade doesn't do much other than getting across the river a little quicker, the growing gridlock and congestion is not relieved.  Mode shift might, but the MOAR ROADS mob ruled out any bus priority or bus lanes a few years back.  There is an article on it somewhere. 

Headlong into more failure.

This is like trying to put out a bush fire with a kerosene spray!   

The Centenary definitely has more than 1hr at 'peak', especially inbound. Minimum 2hrs, i'd honestly be more likelh to say closer to 3hrs morning peak inbound then another couple hours afternoon peak inbound (yes, afternoon peak inbound is almost, if not just as bad as morning peak inbound for congestion). Much more needs to happen to get rid of Centenary Mwy congestion than one new bridge dedicated to cars.

Presentable Format



Basic model approximation attempt. The important bit is the one sum at the end under 'daily'. In the real world there would be a smooth build up and down in each peak. And barely anyone at 1am-5am.

That said, I don't expect smoothing it will change the totals at the end much. If you remove traffic from the graveyard shift hours, you then have to place them into the daytime, and that means loading the road up over 50% even in the off peak. Values over 5400 vehicles in any one cell are not allowed as that is the maximum that can be handled (1800 vehicles x 3 peak direction lanes).

This is going to be one very heavily loaded road in 2036, even off peak. And its not even totalling the projected 152,000 vehicles yet!

Members feel free to generate your own to play with in MS Excel.

These models that show growth as some unavoidable certainty are nothing but voodoo science! Based on nothing other than the numbers they need to have the business case approved!!  Don't give them legitimacy!!

QuoteThese models that show growth as some unavoidable certainty are nothing but voodoo science! Based on nothing other than the numbers they need to have the business case approved!!  Don't give them legitimacy!!

Firstly, the model as simple as it may be, is actually agreeing with your case that the road will fill up and exhaust even after this widening project. There is no mismatch there.

Secondly, the Government cannot prevent people going to work, doing shopping, or travelling beyond their local suburb.

So, for every new person you add, they are going to make another 2 or 3 additional trips per day. That seems fairly inevitable.

(If they made none, that would be a really odd and unusual outcome. Now, it's not impossible, but then we would need to see that evidence of localised self-containment.)

Thirdly, at the end of this road catchment are suburbs like Ripley in the Ipswich LGA.

These suburbs are in a high growth phase, and there is plenty more land there to expand.

The growth rate of Ripley is... I had a quick Google, it is around ~ 20% per year! 

~ 4% traffic growth per year seems reasonable given that.

It reflects the high growth of Ripley and suburbs around Springfield Lakes.

Sources

Ripley- Estimated Resident Population (ERP)
https://profile.id.com.au/ipswich/population-estimate?WebID=250

QuoteThe population estimate for Ripley as of the 30th June 2021 is 13,022. Since the previous year, the population has grown by 19.78%. Population growth in City of Ipswich was 2.72%.

Quote from: achiruel on December 27, 2022, 09:54:05 AMSo the State & Federal Governments want to pour several hundred million $ into expanding the Centenary Hwy. How about a Centenary Busway or Transitway instead? Start at Legacy Way, run along the eastern side of the Centenary Hwy to Richlands Station.

The biggest obstacle would be getting buses to/from the busway into Legacy Way, but I'm sure there's some engineering brains around that could find a solution. Maybe a tunnel under the westbound lanes, just past the exhaust tower?

Stations and Waverley Rd, Moggill Rd (with on/off ramps for 443), Fig Tree Pocket Rd, Sinnamon Rd/DFO, Bellwood St/Centenary Shopping Centre, Sumners/Monier Rd, Richlands Station.

Ensure it is constructed with future conversion to BERT buses.

The issue isn't so much between Legacy Way and Moggill Rd but from Moggill Rd down over the Jindalee Bridge. Admittedly it's been a while since I've driven buses in peak hour on that side of town but that was my experience. The added lane from Moggill Rd worked well and traffic usually flowed well until Legacy Way exited. The afternoons saw traffic back up past Moggill Rd in the two through lanes. The priority would be from Moggill Rd to Jindalee with some bus priority to access it.

I had this idea of a bus tunnel from somewhere around Moggill Rd and the freeway to Indooroopilly Station with an underground station that straddled between the shops and the station. It could then exit via bridge over the station if need be. That way you could have a connection walking via the bus station from the shopping centre to the railway. I would also have a station near the primary school. This doesn't solve the centenary bridge issue but it would make routing more buses into Indooroopilly for a train connection to the City more viable. Those buses could also continue to UQ providing more direct links to the uni in the process.

The big challenge at the moment with the Indooroopilly connection is that it takes a bus about the same time to reach Indooroopilly station as it does to reach the busway at Herston via the freeway. By the time you get on a train, the bus is practically at Roma St. If you solve this problem, then the train connection becomes viable.