RAIL - Back On Track Forum

Quote from: #Metro on December 08, 2022, 09:41:54 AMWhat is the argument for replacing a self-supporting mode with one that isn't self-supporting?

How might the figures (on both sides) change once you account for carbon pollution?

Airlines only tend to be self-supporting if you ignore their externalities - and even the flag carriers run by petrostates still get into financial strife.

Cars will go electric so declining environmental benefit vs PT from that moving forward.

Emissions from aircraft are a big problem. Though HSR may or may not be the cheapest way to mitigate that. Depends on the price of carbon pollution. QANTAS is already using synthetic aviation fuel (SAF) in it's international operations.

The former carbon tax was very good at reducing emissions. So there may be other ways.

It's not a point of difference between HSR and RRR things like approaches into Sydney etc. RRR would achieve that too, at the lower RRR cost not the higher HSR cost.

I'm terms of sprawl being cheap to build, it's not cheap to do sprawl on the outskirts of Sydney and Melbourne even with land at agricultural prices. Cheap for the developer maybe, but not gov. Access to TAFE/Uni and health services might be a problem.

Why would it be even cheaper to do it even further away? It would be like creating another 10 MBRCs along the line (assuming it would actually work).

We have enough issues dealing with Ripleys and Yarrabilbas popping up locally, I can't see the appeal of then doing this on a national scale.

QuoteI can't see the appeal of then doing this on a national scale.

Why? It's not like European countries try and have mega cities of 5 million with nothing in between for 800km
They do have a good layer of mid tier cities between 100k-1m and thats something we totally lack and I think its becoming a bit more apparent since the capitals are struggling under the weight of growth.
Just copy the European model.

QuoteAccess to TAFE/Uni and health services might be a problem.

Well for health for example, someone seeing a specialist in Sydney would spend all day travelling each way and overnight. If there was HSR, its now an easy day trip, and the fare would be cheaper than getting a hotel, plus less time cost.

I think universities would expand their campuses in regional towns too. They exist, but people are reluctant to move away from capitals due to the isolation. (And the local base population is too low) Eg who wants to study at Charles Sturt in Wagga if its 5h drive from Sydney. If there's HSR you can go into Sydney if you need to.

QuoteIt's not a point of difference between HSR and RRR things like approaches into Sydney etc. RRR would achieve that too, at the lower RRR cost not the higher HSR cost.

But the RRR wouldn't be future proof.
Pay less, get less.

It's not clear to me there is a material difference in cost until you get sufficiently high line speeds, so if you can build for 200km/h you can generally build for 250-300km/h or a bit more without materially greater expense.  Upwards of 350km/h the engineering tolerances start making things much more expensive as I understand it.

Yeah I think HS2 is future proofed for 400kmh and that means the vertical curve radiuses (56km!) become quite limiting since you dont want your passengers becoming weightless going over a hill.

I think in Australia you might do 250 limits in the urban area, 300 on the fringe, 350 where possible between cities.

Doing 160-200kmh is just lame and just more of the mediocrity we would otherwise slam them for.

Probably limited benefit in going over 250km/h anywhere close to major cities, especially if you are going to have peripheral stops. 

HSR is in all probability not going to be stopping anywhere between say Beenleigh or nearby and Brisbane, so you'd query if you need to engineer that 40-odd km to suit stupidly high speeds especially where tunnelled.  Likewise Central Coast to wherever it stops in Sydney or anywhere comparable.

Agree with SurfRail, regional areas around major cities need stops. One stop on the Gold Coast at Nerang is not enough.

We don't need HSR level speeds for that. 160-180 km/hr on narrow gauge will do the job.

For higher than that, just run a plane overhead as the express tier.

A QANTAS 737 does 853 km/hr at cruise speed, Airbus 330-200 880 km/hr, its twice what the world's fastest HSR does (excluding maglev).

For XPT, instead of spending $50-100 billion, you'd also compare it against a slower but cheaper option of upgrades that might halve current time between Sydney-Melbourne. The line needs renewal anyway, so it should be investigated.

It would be less for much less, but that is still a viable proposition, particularly if the justification is going to be equity and coverage.

So far we don't have a good idea of that non-HSR faster rail alternative, but it should be done to provide a fair comparison.

QuoteWe don't need HSR level speeds for that. 160-180 km/hr on narrow gauge will do the job.

No it wont, what if someone is in coffs harbour and wants to get to the GC or Brisbane since they are the largest major cities. This is where HSR speeds are game changing.

QuoteAgree with SurfRail, regional areas around major cities need stops. One stop on the Gold Coast at Nerang is not enough.

I would say that the GC would have stops at say Robina, Helensvale, and a northern end stop around Yatala as the Brisbane periperhal station, then express to Roma St.

Trains from Sydney would only stop at Newcastle, Coffs, Robina and Roma Street

The Regional tier would stop at Gosford, Newcastle, Taree, Kempsey, Port Maquarie, Coffs, Grafton, Ballina, Robina, Roma Street.

The 3rd tier would be a short working starting at Ballina, then Robina, Helensvale, Yatala, Roma Street. The short working services would use Javelin style trains.

The existing QR line would have interchange at Robina and Nerang.

So for example, say someone in Coffs was headed to Dreamworld, they would catch HSR to Robina, then change onto QR and ride a few stops to Dreamworld.

Or if someone in Sydney wanted to get to Ballina, they could either ride to Coffs then change trains for a regional service to Ballina. Or they could ride the all stops to Ballina.

Or if someone in Nerang wanted to get to Brisbane fast, they could ride one stop to Helensvale then change trains onto the service that originated at Ballina.

QuoteFor higher than that, just run a plane overhead as the express tier.

Yeah good luck interchanging onto the express tier if its flying overhead.

Quote from: Gazza on December 08, 2022, 17:17:34 PM

QuoteWe don't need HSR level speeds for that. 160-180 km/hr on narrow gauge will do the job.

No it wont, what if someone is in coffs harbour and wants to get to the GC or Brisbane since they are the largest major cities. This is where HSR speeds are game changing.

QuoteAgree with SurfRail, regional areas around major cities need stops. One stop on the Gold Coast at Nerang is not enough.

I would say that the GC would have stops at say Robina, Helensvale, and a northern end stop around Yatala as the Brisbane periperhal station, then express to Roma St.

Trains from Sydney would only stop at Newcastle, Coffs, Robina and Roma Street

The Regional tier would stop at Gosford, Newcastle, Taree, Kempsey, Port Maquarie, Coffs, Grafton, Ballina, Robina, Roma Street.

The 3rd tier would be a short working starting at Ballina, then Robina, Helensvale, Yatala, Roma Street. The short working services would use Javelin style trains.

The existing QR line would have interchange at Robina and Nerang.

So for example, say someone in Coffs was headed to Dreamworld, they would catch HSR to Robina, then change onto QR and ride a few stops to Dreamworld.

Or if someone in Sydney wanted to get to Ballina, they could either ride to Coffs then change trains for a regional service to Ballina. Or they could ride the all stops to Ballina.

Or if someone in Nerang wanted to get to Brisbane fast, they could ride one stop to Helensvale then change trains onto the service that originated at Ballina.

QuoteFor higher than that, just run a plane overhead as the express tier.

Yeah good luck interchanging onto the express tier if its flying overhead.

You have described my European train experience to a T except the plane flying overhead

Quote from: #Metro on December 08, 2022, 17:04:46 PMAgree with SurfRail, regional areas around major cities need stops. One stop on the Gold Coast at Nerang is not enough.

We don't need HSR level speeds for that. 160-180 km/hr on narrow gauge will do the job.

You aren't agreeing with me.  I said any HSR close to a large city is not going to be at the highest feasible speed so it doesn't have to be engineered for it.  What I meant was 200-250km/h instead of 250-350km/h - and that the marginal cost is not that different so we can focus on speed in the non-stopping sections which would mostly only be built as part of an intercapital project.  There's no point making the regional lines likely to be built first incompatible or unnecessarily slow.

My thought process is thus:

-Could we justify a high speed link purley to replace flying? Probably not?
-Could we justify a high speed link purley to replace XPT / Vline services? Probably not?
-Could we justify a high speed link purely as commuter services to the next nearest cities (Eg SYD-CBR)? Probably not?

If you build a piece of infrastructure focused solely on one of those groups, the passenger numbers would be lower so yeah at best you could justify something that goes 160-200...Which is exactly why we have the Tilt Train, the Prospector, Regional Fast Rail etc.

However, if the project is viewed as catering to all 3 groups, you are multiplying the potential passenger numbers and that then justifies spending more.

Medium Speed Rail

This presentation outlines a proposal for the development of a Medium Speed Rail (MSR) corridor between Sydney and Canberra as a technology tester for High Speed Rail in Australia.

https://www.slideshare.net/ScottMartinCMILT/102-michell-max-core2014

The Malaysian side of fast electric rail is nearing completion with the expected commissioning of the project to be mid to late 2023.

This will allow EMUs to run the entire length of duplicated track between Gemas-Johor Baru at top speeds of 160kph. Thus, shearing 4 hours off the journey between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. In addition, one will be able to make the journey by rail from the centre of Singapore to Kuala Lumpur for the first time with the addition of the 4 km mass transit project from Singapore to the Malaysian border.

The Star--->https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/11/16/gemas-jb-ets-almost-ready-to-run


Furthermore, this project includes fright train improvements, thus allowing electric hauled freight to occur between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.

What a great project, that provides a good example of affordable improvements to rail transport while cutting emissions, reducing oil imports, improving freight movements, as well as cutting passenger travel times.

We have to take heed of this project and move along with the electrification and duplication of track to Toowoomba, as well as to Coolangatta and Sunshine Coast.

Note, that Malaysia also has a narrow gauge that only can provide safe top speeds of 160kph which is also ample between Brisbane, Toowoomba Sunshine Coast and Coolangatta.

Agreed Verbatim 9.

MSR is appealing because it's lower risk. It also is the same or better than car journey time wise.

I'm thinking some sort of faster rail project for the MBRC region might not be a bad idea. Needs some more thought on my part for now.

Quote from: #Metro on December 24, 2022, 12:33:54 PMI'm thinking some sort of faster rail project for the MBRC region might not be a bad idea.

So... NWTC-into-CRR, or an equivalent topology. I'm not sure how much of a speedup that'll be compared to the existing express though. Even a straight line from Strathpine to the city only saves about 4km over the existing alignment. What the new alignment really gets you is the equivalent of 6 tracks south of Northgate.

Comparisons: Petrie to Central on the Caboolture/Nambor express is timetabled for about 32 minutes, 27.5km => 51 km/h. Loganlea to Central on the Gold Coast express is 39 minutes, 32.2 km => 49.5 km/h (and set to get a bit faster with LGFR and CRR).

Sydney Morning Herald --> Revealed: Secret high-speed rail plan backs Newcastle, Sydney, Wollongong link $

QuoteA review of high-speed rail options for NSW, which the state government has kept secret for nearly three years, recommends prioritising a fast rail link between Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong at speeds up to 250km/h.

But the strategy, which was commissioned by Gladys Berejiklian, casts doubt on the need for high-speed rail to the Central West and says a route to Goulburn and Canberra would be nice, but is not urgent. ...

https://twitter.com/railjournal/status/1613557042228215813

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1613902630484598784

Regional Faster Rail....YES
High Speed "Bullet Train" style.....50yrs from now...maybe!  But not in the short-term.

The Guardian---> https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/24/start-building-now-to-fulfil-sydney-melbourne-high-speed-rail-ambition-labor-urged

^^This is what I have been saying all along that Syd-Cbr is the best first route to build.

The Newcastle line can be upgraded to faster rail, while electrifying the Hunter spur lines at the same time.

Meanwhile in Europe--->

Rail Express --> Get on board the High Speed Rail Authority

QuoteThe Australian Government has begun the search for Board members for the new High Speed Rail Authority (HSRA), formed to guide the development of the high-speed rail network  in the country.

There will be a merit-based process to select the members, including the Chair, to ensure the Board is comprised of people who have the appropriate skills, qualifications, knowledge and experience to best bring high speed rail to reality.

Experts from the rail and infrastructure sectors, as well as planning and financing, are encouraged to apply. ...

The Riotact--->All aboard? How Canberra could become a test case for high-speed rail | Riotact

QuoteImagine jumping into a train in Canberra and arriving in Sydney within two hours.

That could be a reality according to FastTrack Australia's new implementation plan for high-speed rail from Sydney to Melbourne.

The report singled out a high-speed rail section from Canberra to Goulburn and Yass as a "high priority", which could serve as a guinea pig to prove the concept would work across the east coast.

LA to 'Vegas [Olympics friendly]

^ Brightline West

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brightline_West

I wonder how subsequent Governments are going to fund HSR since the recent 330 billion dollar Aukus agreement. The current Labor Government also wants to enhance the child and aged care sector as well as the NDIS, which is mooted to cost billions, drawing from other vital infrastructure projects.

I guess the only way to fund this is to increase net migration, as well as broaden the GST to all areas incl health and food and raise it to 15% in stages over the next 8 years

I gather that the Government has a plan to increase net debt as well.

High Speed rail in the land down under is never going to happen.

Join the Navy instead ...

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Make it a 300b aukus agreement and then 30b for hsr.

Utopia put a clip out today

^ 

Brisbanetimes --> Train of nought: Australia's great rail projects and the troublesome Qld frontier

Quote... The slow ride of high-speed rail

If Schott's guesstimate of $30 billion to build Inland Rail was eye-watering, consider high-speed rail – that other great Australian locomotive ambition long-entombed in yellowed reports and occasional source of magnificent promises.

This idea, first floated in 1984, proposes to move passenger trains between the east coast capitals at up to 350km/h, slashing the 14-hour XPT service from Brisbane to Sydney to a few hours.

It would dramatically reduce emissions from air travel and rejuvenate the regions in which it would stop to collect and drop off passengers.

Most politicians, from the Greens to the Nationals, love the concept, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who had his first serious crack at HSR as infrastructure minister in the Gillard government.

He helped establish the High-Speed Rail Advisory Rail Group to navigate issues arising from a 2013 government report that put the cost at a cool $114 billion.

By 2022, the best estimate had swollen to between $200 billion and $300 billion, figures that make Inland Rail look like loose change. ...

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1658707114779639808

Great thread!!

https://twitter.com/slucy/status/1677812327234564096?

The average speed for that train shown above is ~ 112.96 km/hr.

Typical average speeds for a Gold Coast train is around 55 km/hr, and for general suburban lines 40 km/hr or less.

Services aren't just reasonably frequent, they are also fast.

This has to be one of the stupidest articles I've ever seen
https://news.thenewdaily.com.au/c/12PfWkV2o1ldhYS4QSTpUwjStRYD

Really expected better from the New Daily.

Not only is Alan arguing against HSR in general but also against regional fast rail

QuoteIs anyone going to spend $20 billion on a new train line from Sydney to Newcastle? Hardly. The number of plane passengers on that route each year is 1.25 million. To make an 8 per cent return on investment a high-speed train would have to make a net profit of $1.5 billion. Accounting for staff and overheads the fare would therefore have to be about $1600. A one-way FlyPelican saver fare from Mascot to Newcastle today will set you back $150.

Because there is no other way that people commute between Newcastle and Sydney other than flying...

Alan has a finance background, he's approaching the issue from that side. He's not a transport expert or advocate, so there is a knowledge gap.

Advocates can do a lot by explaining the issues.

Firstly, the discount rate should be lower than 8%. An 8% return is what the share market returns. This is government, so a more appropriate return is about 4% ish. I know IA and transport projects have a common assessment hurdle of 7%; there is a lot of discussion around the appropriateness of that. It also implies lending to government is riskier than lending to blue chip companies, which is not consistent with observation.

Secondly, we need to look at the total trip pie. Not just the plane slice. The main competition will be lanes not planes. Critically, the viability will turn on the time gap between driving and taking this new train. That is the second error Alan makes in the article.

The third is not appreciating door to door times. These need to be determined and compared to make a fair and thorough judgement.

There will be a range of project costs depending on the speed standard chosen. As part of the assessment, NSW govt. should calculate how the costs vary with increasing speed standard to see if there is an optimum point.

 

The distance between Sydney and Newcastle by path is about 145 km. At 200 km/hr this path distance could be covered in 45 mins theoretically. Practically it would be closer to 60 min.

It's a bit short for a plane trip.