RAIL - Back On Track Forum

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1581661432407797761

Sent to all outlets:

Queensland - a rail failure

18th October 2022

Good Morning,

Why is it Queensland continues to miss out on the large funding for rail projects?

Other states gain many billions of dollars for rail projects, often without proper consideration of business cases by Infrastructure Australia, as politics is often the priority.

A factor in the poor performance of Queensland in gaining federal rail funding is the quality of project submissions in Queensland is obviously not up to the task.

Until we set up a proper Public Transport Authority, with heavy rail as a division within that Authority, mediocrity will continue to dominate.

Translink and rail is not properly supported in a roads obsessed organisation.  It is time to get public transport and rail out of DTMR. 
An organisation based on the record that has failed.

Let's get real Queensland.  A state that hopes to deliver the 2032 Olympics!  It  will be an utter shambles unless steps are taken now to sort out the transport failure.

Best wishes,
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Quote from: ozbob on October 16, 2022, 03:55:57 AMSent to all outlets:

Car's reign as king has SEQ liveability on life support

16th October 2022

Brisbanetimes recently published an article highlighting just how woeful the transport and city planning is in South East Queensland.
(1. Billions spent on public transport, but car is still king in Brisbane https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/billions-spent-on-public-transport-but-car-is-still-king-in-brisbane-20221012-p5bp88.html ).

The transport nightmare across Brisbane and SEQ is damaging not only our reputation as a "Great City" but the public's health and well-being, the cost to live, the availability/affordability of our housing, the strength of our economy and the ability to enjoy living in the region.  There is a real risk our potential Olympic visitors will return home warning family, friends and colleagues to skip Brisbane altogether. A failure to properly invest in public and active transport adds to the cost of health care, massively.

Our governments at all levels have created this mess. They have not failed to plan for it or invest enough in right infrastructure.  A fact the planning and engineering professions have known for decades. Yet our governments thought they knew better.  Every day is a reminder that they have got it horribly wrong.  Even the 'big ticket' public transport projects like Cross River Rail and Brisbane Metro will by themselves simply not make a big difference.  Poor planning and prioritising "congestion busting" freeways, tunnels and ever wider and faster roads has made the transport mess damaging the liveability of the region.

Figures from the Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program 2022-23 to 2025-26. 
Bulk of rail investment is Cross River Rail.  Rail, bus and active transport are grossly underfunded.



https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/QTRIPonline/Fast-facts

Our governments and major parties need to urgently accept that this mess is of their making and it is way past time to listen to the experts like Brent Toderian, the former City Planner of Vancouver, when he advises (2):

"Successful multimodal cities aren't just about what your city starts doing — i.e., funding transit — it's what you stop doing — i.e., widening roads."

and

"... everybody asks, "Why aren't more people using transit?" It is because you're still inducing car traffic."

Our governments need to immediately:

* explain to the people of South East Queensland why more of the same can never fix the transport problems because it is actually creating them;
* halt all "congestion busting/upgrade" road projects and redirect the money towards active/public transport;
* increase densities/housing mix around our railway/busway stations and commercial/employment centres;
* build separated bike/bus lanes on major roads - especially where the bike lane is just paint today or in a "door zone";
* implement 30km/hr speed limits on all residential streets and school zones;
* turn our confusing, low frequency, non-integrated bus network into one that is centred around Bus Rapid Transport routes along our major roads and works with the rail network not compete against it;
* review the Brisbane Metro buses to confirm if they are fit for purpose and able to scale up to do the heavy lifting of passengers on the busway; and
* remove parking minimums.

It is time to act before the "Crash Cart" is needed to resuscitate the region.

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org


References:

1. Billions spent on public transport, but car is still king in Brisbane
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/billions-spent-on-public-transport-but-car-is-still-king-in-brisbane-20221012-p5bp88.html

2. Brent Toderian: Don't "Balance" Modes — Prioritize Walking, Biking, and Transit
https://denver.streetsblog.org/2017/02/09/brent-toderian-dont-balance-modes-prioritize-walking-biking-and-transit/

https://twitter.com/railbotforum/status/1582021435110830080

https://twitter.com/CoxyJindas/status/1582118432824209408

How many lanes do they need to add to the M1, Bruce and Warrego Hwys before they start investing in fast electric rail?

Quote from: verbatim9 on October 18, 2022, 11:08:04 AMHow many lanes do they need to add to the M1, Bruce and Warrego Hwys before they start investing in fast electric rail?

TMR Traffic Model has returned [Syntax error - there is no correlation between the # of lanes (see vital economic infrastructure) and rail capacity (seee highly subsidized social safety network)- Rail expansion can only be linked ticket revenue].

This is evidence of a state government that has lost its way.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-20/qld-moreton-bay-council-unaware-bruce-highway-land-resumption/101553438

We know that for every peak-hour train 600 cars are removed from our major highways, yet the Queensland Government insists on promoting road-based solutions for access to and from the Sunshine Coast at the expense of proper investment in the SCL to Maroochydore (SCDL) and full duplication to Nambour.

Mark Bailey calls those advocating rail to Maroochydore 'nongs', even though the land for CAMCOS/SCDL is available and sits idle, ready for tracks to be laid. Contrast that with his alternative – buying up BRAND NEW HOUSES just days after owners have collected the keys and earmarking them for demolition to make way for an extra lane on the Bruce Highway – which will require another lane in the near future, then another (or an 'alternative Bruce Highway' via Caboolture West a la the Coomera Connector alternative M1 to the Gold Coast). Just who is the nong here?

The clear and logical investment decision should be to invest in rail, not roads. Any investment in the SCL/NCL also benefits Queensland's rail freight efficiencies.

As taxpayers, Mr Bailey wants us to pay to buy brand new houses to convert to road at a time when the state government is facing a housing crisis. We will pay a premium price for a house on land with full infrastructure services (roads, sewers, water etc). With just a little forethought and pre-planning, the land could have been bought as a greenfields site (undeveloped land) at a much cheaper price.

Instead, Mr Bailey cries that not enough money is coming from Canberra for transport projects, when state government mismanagement escalates the price governments (i.e. 'we') must pay for incompetence and a lack of planning, beautiful glossy brochures showing lines on maps not withstanding.

But, hey, there's no problem here ... we just hire another PR person to the bloated propaganda machine within government churning out media statements that attempt to make the government look good. It's facetious I know, but we all know the sort of stuff ... 'Major progress was made on the SCL upgrade today when local ALP politicians gathered to plant three trees at the Landsborough Railway Station...'

This road widening bungle comes on top of other major failings:

Women allegedly made sterile in operations at Mackay Base Hospital, pregnant women having their babies by the side of the Bruce Highway as they race to Rockhampton because of staff shortages at Gladstone Hospital.

Revelations of serious shortcomings at the Queensland Forensic Laboratory, resulting in a toxic culture and, most probably, alleged criminals not being charged and brought to justice. We have to meet the cost of a Commission of Inquiry to get to the bottom of it.

Issues within the police force where women recruits are regarded as 'fresh meat' by a sexist culture failing to deal appropriately or adequately with DV callouts.

An arrogant culture where taxpayers must pay 'whatever it costs' to rip down The Gabba and rebuild an Olympic Stadium there, even though that may not be the most appropriate outcome, or wise outcome.

No amount of PR spin can cover up the growing list of messes.

^

Quote... No amount of PR spin can cover up the growing list of messes. ...

Indeed ...

Meanwhile ....

https://twitter.com/radio_austin/status/1582590138617511936

From what I can gather (and I could be missing something), but Red team Feds came into this years election promising an "upgrade" to the Bruce from Pine Rivers to Cab. It sort of came out of the blue to most of us, including some parts of the State departments here.

And whilst there has been some sort of murmur around wanting an extra lane to Caboolture (for god knows what reason), I don't think SARA (state planning department who assesses DAs triggering State matters) would have been aware of these plans when they approved these developments from there end a couple of years ago.

If an application triggers SARA for transport infrastructure (being within 25m of a State transport corridor), SARA assess the application and in this case, provide outcomes that protect their assets for any potential future expansion. If this highway widening was known when this application was being assessed, there is no way in hell they would have let these houses potentially impacted be built

So it seems you've got this combination of an election announcement that's sort of come out of the blue to most people (including parts of the State Government themselves) and it's a bit of an 'oh sh%t' situation between different departments. It's almost like if sound transportation policy was enacted (i.e. rail down NWTC, CAMCOS, Brisbane Subway, heck even just some bus lanes) then we wouldn't be in this daft situation. It's pretty ironic that Red team calls out BCC for proposing the North-West motorway, yet supports something just as futile anyway.

Why they are still so blind that they can't cast their eyes south and see that the M1 to the GC has 6 lanes in some parts and is still bumper to bumper at some point in either direction every day of the week and think that adding another lane to the Bruce is the hail Mary lord and saviour? Let alone the USA being a nationwide case study "How to socially and economically cripple cities and entire regions - for dummies".

As SW said, it's never an issue of availability for funds, it's an issue of prioritisation and allocation of funds.

Quote from: ozbob on October 18, 2022, 10:27:04 AM

THIS!

The lack of modern city planning and civil engineering practices in Queensland and the federal government is astonishing. It has been known for well over 2 decades that the way to reduce congestion is by making public transport more accessible and more convenient, and yet they continue to poor millions of dollars down the drain widening a dangerous highway. The more lanes the more dangerous a road is. When vehicles have to merge 3+ lanes to exit and enter the highway the chance of an accident skyrockets. It's disappointing that I, as a 19-year-old, am better educated on things that are literally their job

QuoteThe lack of modern city planning and civil engineering practices in Queensland and the federal government is astonishing. It has been known for well over 2 decades that the way to reduce congestion is by making public transport more accessible and more convenient, and yet they continue to poor millions of dollars down the drain widening a dangerous highway. The more lanes the more dangerous a road is. When vehicles have to merge 3+ lanes to exit and enter the highway the chance of an accident skyrockets. It's disappointing that I, as a 19-year-old, am better educated on things that are literally their job

I think they know exactly what they are doing. People in politics are smart and well-informed. They are just trying to garner votes.

I have a name for these sorts of projects. Car Rapid Transport or CRT.

Quote from: #Metro on October 20, 2022, 19:49:52 PM

QuoteThe lack of modern city planning and civil engineering practices in Queensland and the federal government is astonishing. It has been known for well over 2 decades that the way to reduce congestion is by making public transport more accessible and more convenient, and yet they continue to poor millions of dollars down the drain widening a dangerous highway. The more lanes the more dangerous a road is. When vehicles have to merge 3+ lanes to exit and enter the highway the chance of an accident skyrockets. It's disappointing that I, as a 19-year-old, am better educated on things that are literally their job

I think they know exactly what they are doing. People in politics are smart and well-informed. They are just trying to garner votes.

I have a name for these sorts of projects. Car Rapid Transport or CRT.

And if that's the case then they aren't doing their job properly. Are they representing the best interests of the people, or the best interests for themselves. If you advertise the reasoning behind funding public transport (AKA improving traffic for everyone) then they can still get the votes. It's just laziness on their part.

In fact, every year, it's becoming more and more clear that people are wanting better public transport options, yet they are still stuck in their old ways. If they don't change policy soon, they'll start losing their votes to the parties that actually want to improve PT.

QuoteAnd if that's the case then they aren't doing their job properly. Are they representing the best interests of the people, or the best interests for themselves. If you advertise the reasoning behind funding public transport (AKA improving traffic for everyone) then they can still get the votes. It's just laziness on their part.

Selling the CRT vision is easy. It's as easy as selling free public transport or large fare reductions. Or more car parking at stations.

QuoteIn fact, every year, it's becoming more and more clear that people are wanting better public transport options, yet they are still stuck in their old ways. If they don't change policy soon, they'll start losing their votes to the parties that actually want to improve PT.

Unfortunately, the latest statistics posted show a general plateau or decline. And when you consider that over 10 years the population has grown a lot, it is a decline.

The good thing is that Perth exists. Probably the only "Tier 2" capital city that has managed to work out what to do and follow it through. They have some suburban train stations with 7.5 minute all-day train frequency as of last week.

Quote from: #Metro on October 20, 2022, 20:18:57 PMUnfortunately, the latest statistics posted show a general plateau or decline. And when you consider that over 10 years the population has grown a lot, it is a decline.

While the patronage has declined, this doesn't necessarily imply that the public support for improved PT has not. Even if people support PT, if it isn't just as convenient, they aren't gonna use it. Take myself for example. I would love to take PT to work, but it would literally take 4x as long as driving since I would have to go well out of my way (Chermside) before going back in the right direction.

QuoteWhile the patronage has declined, this doesn't necessarily imply that the public support for improved PT has not. Even if people support PT, if it isn't just as convenient, they aren't gonna use it. Take myself for example. I would love to take PT to work, but it would literally take 4x as long as driving since I would have to go well out of my way (Chermside) before going back in the right direction.

WFH has made a major impact. Not all jobs can do that, but many office jobs can. Even universities are offering whole degrees - postgrad and undergrad - wholly online. Via the internet, there are no emissions (assuming renewable power), no congestion, no lethal accidents/collisions, no fare or parking fees. The benefits are huge.

Political parties have focus groups and other things. Political parties have 1 purpose - to win elections. Sunshine Coast Line is a good example. Blue Team safe seat territory, so zero payoff for Read Team in extending the SC rail up there.

Having flat or negative PT growth in the face of rising population is very concerning. The permanency of a service is not due to rails or stations being in place, it is down to patronage. If you don't use it, you lose it. Plenty of train networks and tram networks shut down post-1945 attest to that.

We need a rail and PT network based around rapid transit. If we are going to fend off the car, the train service needs to go faster...much faster. This is where Regional Rapid Rail comes in - you have trains doing above 100 km/hr on the way to the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

Perth has had great success with this model, and it works for sprawl and low density areas, which is great because it works with what we already have.

Quote from: #Metro on October 20, 2022, 22:20:40 PMWe need a rail and PT network based around rapid transit. If we are going to fend off the car, the train service needs to go faster...much faster. This is where Regional Rapid Rail comes in - you have trains doing above 100 km/hr on the way to the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

Perth has had great success with this model, and it works for sprawl and low density areas, which is great because it works with what we already have.

I wholeheartedly agree. Problem is it isn't going to happen until a government is brave enough to put money towards it despite the currently low figures. No doubt it will pay off, but it won't happen with the current mob; that's for sure.

Even with WFH reducing PT patronage, it would also affect the usage on the road network. You wouldn't be seeing so much traffic going into the city and would instead be seeing increased demand for cross-suburban trips. That's something which the PT network in Brisbane is God awful for. Once again, even if people wanted to catch PT, there is literally no viable option 90% of the time when you're not traveling into the city. It's shameful that there are few cross-suburban bus routes in Brisbane, and even less that are frequent enough to be useful.

Until this Government (and all Governments to be frank) stop playing petty politics across imaginary seat divides, nothing is going to improve. So what if the LNP are in in Maroochydore and Caloundra. Doing nothing sure ain't gonna swing any voters. 

QuoteEven with WFH reducing PT patronage, it would also affect the usage on the road network. You wouldn't be seeing so much traffic going into the city and would instead be seeing increased demand for cross-suburban trips. That's something which the PT network in Brisbane is God awful for. Once again, even if people wanted to catch PT, there is literally no viable option 90% of the time when you're not traveling into the city. It's shameful that there are few cross-suburban bus routes in Brisbane, and even less that are frequent enough to be useful.

Agreed. This is the issue - with WFH, trip generation itself has fallen. If the roads are uncongested then people will use and exhaust that before going into the PT network (the "no advantage condition").

QuoteUntil this Government (and all Governments to be frank) stop playing petty politics across imaginary seat divides, nothing is going to improve. So what if the LNP are in in Maroochydore and Caloundra. Doing nothing sure ain't gonna swing any voters. 

There is no payoff. They literally cancelled Sunshine Coast Rail line and nothing happened to them. Ever since Sir Joh in the late 1980s, it's been Red Team. The opposition is quite disorganised so there is no real competition.

That said, Red Team have built pretty much all modern PT infrastructure since then in QLD. The problem is the allergy the bean counters have to operational funding. I suspect they are still operating from the basis that demand is exogenous (external, not affected by what they do) which is not correct. Whether a trip is made or not and by what mode depends on the generalised cost (weighted time + money), and that in turn is affected by frequency.. They do not want to fund frequency.

The Perth equivalent of the Great Circle Line runs at 2x the frequency and has services running on Sundays.

https://twitter.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1583738137662013442

https://twitter.com/7NewsBrisbane/status/1583734758760062976

The planned Rocky ring road seems to be coming in cheap from what I hear....

I'm trying to work out why they even need to resume properties.
The Bruce Highway corridor through there is quite wide, and has space in the median.
If they are only adding one lane each way then why does the road need to be so wide?

They are having service roads on both sides of the highway from the Gateway Merge and north....

https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/gateway-mwy-bruce-highway-pine-river-upgrade-bruce-hwy-brisbane-gympie-pine-river-dohles-rocks-road

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/96660

Bruce Highway Western Alternative Stage 2 route confirmed

24th November 2022

Minister for Transport and Main Roads
The Honourable Mark Bailey

Transport and Main Roads have identified the preferred route for Stage 2 of the future Bruce Highway Western Alternative, which will connect the areas of Moorina and Narangba.

Selection of the 16-kilometre Stage 2 corridor follows extensive community consultation, with more than 1000 pieces of feedback received since July.

In its entirety, the Bruce Highway Western Alternative will be a 60-kilometre transport corridor extending from Steve Irwin Way at Beerburrum to the North Brisbane Area.

Transport and Main Roads Minister Mark Bailey said the Moreton Bay region was set to grow, so getting a corridor locked in early was vital.

"We expect more than 656,000 people to move to the Moreton Bay region by 2041," Minister Bailey said.

"This western alternative to the Bruce Highway will be essential in supporting growth and to prevent gridlock between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.

"Planning ahead allows us to give certainty to local residents, and ensure we are delivering something that meets the needs of the community in the long term.

"A big thank you to all those who have engaged in the consultation and planning process so far – I encourage you to stay engaged as we progress to Stages 3 and 4."

The Bruce Highway Western Alternative aims to take pressure off the Bruce Highway, allowing it to service long-distance travel and freight movements.

Gazettal of the Stage 2 section will get underway in 2023, to outline the requirements for the area as a transport corridor and ensure the route is protected from future development.

The community is invited to view the preferred alignment and provide feedback until 12 February 2023.

Maps of the corridor are available online or at project information sessions:

Morayfield Community Hall, Tuesday 29 November
Upper Caboolture Farmers Assembly Hall, Monday 5 December
Narangba Community Centre (Main Hall), Tuesday 13 December
Minister Bailey said half the corridor was now secured.

The eight-kilometre Stage 1 section, from Moodlu to Moorina, was confirmed in late 2021.�

"The release of the preferred alignment for Stage 2, gives landholders and homeowners more certainty around our future transport needs," the Minister said.

"I acknowledge this is a difficult time for those directly impacted.

"Moreton Bay is one of the fastest growing regions in Australia and we need to plan for that population growth.

"We all want to spend less time in traffic and this road project is an important part of ensuring that residents have good access to community infrastructure and jobs.

"We are already accepting early submissions and feedback on the next stages, and I recommend locals register for email updates on the project and take every opportunity to have their say."

Planning will start in 2023 for Stage 3 of the Bruce Highway Western Alternative, which runs from Narangba to Bald Hills, with Stage 4 to follow.

Early feedback on these future stages can be provided online or by contacting the project team.

For more information on the project, visit www.tmr.qld.gov.au (search for Bruce Highway Western Alternative).

ENDS

Stage 2 - Preferred Alignment  ext PDF

Stage 2 - Detailed Map  ext PDF

Brisbanetimes --> Alternative to Bruce Highway mapped out in Brisbane's north

Couriermail --> Home face resumption as Bruce Highway Western Alternative Stage Two announced $

QuotePLANS to further expand the choked Bruce Highway could mean the loss of another 100 Moreton Bay homes.

It comes less than a month after residents in a North Lakes housing estate were told their homes - some still under construction - would potentially be resumed.

Residents in Burpengary, Moorina, Morayfield and Narangba say they are heartbroken after Transport and Main Roads this week sent letters to property owners that will be affected. ...

====

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1596148430593994752

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/96684

Have your say on Deception Bay
28th November 2022

Minister for Transport and Main Roads
The Honourable Mark Bailey

Transport and Main Roads is calling for feedback on the proposed upgrade of Deception Bay Road, following release of the design today.

The proposal covered the final, two-lane section of Deception Bay Road, between the Bruce Highway and Park Road/Lipscombe Road.

Member for Bancroft Chris Whiting said the release of the proposed design was another milestone in a project he has been championing for years.

"The Palaszczuk Labor Government is powering on with upgrades in our area, and today we can take the first look at upgrades on Deception Bay Road," Mr Whiting said.

The proposed future improvements aim to reduce travel time and improve safety and efficiency for road users including:

widening Deception Bay Road to provide a four-lane, median-divided, arterial road
signalised and upgraded intersections to better manage traffic flows, improve safety and reduce congestion
new service roads to improve safety for people accessing Deception Bay Road
off-road active transport pathways
a new signalised pedestrian crossing on Deception Bay Road between Park Road/Lipscombe Road and Tallagon Court to improve safety and accessibility
eight bus stops.
"We know how important community consultation is to delivering a quality upgrade that meets the needs of the community, so I encourage locals to get involved," he said.

"Up to 21,000 vehicles use this section of Deception Bay Road each day and we're expecting traffic volumes to increase as the Moreton Bay region continues to prosper.

"I don't want to see these people stuck in traffic so it's important we get it right from the start.

"All feedback will be used to inform the final layout, before we move ahead design and construction down the track."

Mr Whiting said increasing the project would provide a seamless transition from the interchange with the Bruce Highway, which was currently under construction.

"We have a $163 million project motoring along just down the road, which will feed directly into the duplication of Deception Bay Road," he said.

"Not only will these investments benefit drivers, they will also make a huge difference in the safety of bike riders and pedestrians too.

"We are delivering road infrastructure where our community needs it, whether you are on four wheels, two wheels or two feet, your journey will be safer and quicker."

Transport and Main Roads Minister Mark Bailey said a fauna overpass would also be built to connect the northern and southern areas of Freshwater National Park.

"This fauna overpass will be the largest delivered by my department to date, which marks another important wildlife conservation achievement for the area," Minister Bailey said.

"We already have strong fauna management measures in place on the Bruce Highway and this bridge will add to the safe passage of wildlife.

"It will be a significant piece of infrastructure, allowing native animals to move safely between these habitat areas and away from busy roads."

Mr Whiting encouraged community members to get involved.

"These major road projects are transforming how we travel through the region, so it's only right that the many people who live here have a say," he said.

Community consultation will close on 11 January 2023.

For more information on this project and to provide feedback, visit www.yoursay-projects.tmr.qld.gov.au/deception-bay-road-bruce-highway-park-road.

ENDS

Planning layout

Lipscombe intersection

Couriermail --> CFMEU head calls on Neil Scales to resign, describing Toowoomba Bypass as 'catastrophic engineering failure' $

QuoteThe head of the CFMEU has called on Transport and Main Roads director-general Neil Scales to resign over what he sees as a culture of accepting low-ball tenders that led to the engineering failure of the $1.6b Toowoomba Bypass three years after it opened.

Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union assistant state secretary for Queensland Jade Ingham said the mega project which officially opened in September 2019 was plagued with safety and quality issues during the build that he blames on TMR accepting a "cheap Charlie" tender from Nexus Group.

Those concerns came to head two months ago when large sections of drainage and earthworks along two sections of the bypass collapsed, leading TMR to close the viaduct and re-route thousands of daily eastbound vehicles through Toowoomba. ...

Brisbanetimes --> 'Significant pressures': Report warns Brisbane traffic will get worse

QuoteSouth-east Queensland is set to become more dependent on cars, with people who settle in outer suburbs having to drive to Brisbane for work, adding to road congestion and commute times for residents.

A report from the Bureau of Communications, Arts and Regional Research, a federal government agency, has reiterated the need for higher density development in established suburbs to maintain quality of life across the region. ...

... "Significant and timely investment in public transport will help reduce congestion and manage the impacts of growth on the existing road network." ...

====

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1604836891651473408

Bureau of Communications, Arts and Regional Research

South East Queensland research project

https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/research-data/bureau-communications-arts-and-regional-research/regions-and-cities/cities-research

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1605912766723694592

Sunshine Coast News--->https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2022/12/23/upgrades-continue-on-major-road/


^^Another road widening project on the Sunshine Coast with claims of reducing congestion.

Brisbane Times---> Boxing Day delays predicted as SEQ has first taste of Christmas traffic

QuoteHoliday traffic is already ramping up in south-east Queensland, with Boxing Day shaping up as the busiest of all as festive shoppers chase post-Christmas bargains.

4BC traffic reporter Olympia Kwitowski said two crashes on the Bruce Highway and a crash on the M1 southbound at Coomera were the catalyst for delays on Friday.

It's time to build the busway extension to Indooroopilly from UQ. This can provide a fast Easy-West mass transit solution, speeding up trips by more than half to the Eastern and Southern Suburbs, Gold Coast, as well as to and from the CBD and Southbank from the Western suburbs. In addition having this fast alternative to the slow traffic crawl along Coronation Drive can persuade commuters to ditch the car and travel hassle free.

The busway extension from UQ to Indooroopilly can also provide extra capacity during school terms, notably for Indooroopilly High and St Peters.

Building and planning sensible infrastructure where there is currently gaps can provide enormous benefits for the commuter, thus encouraging a modal shift from the car to public transport and active transport.

***A busway from Indooroopilly to UQ can provide enormous benefits during the Olympics and other events, allowing people to travel fast and safely to events without going via the city or sitting in traffic unnecessarily due to congestion and event road closures and diversion.

Parts of the Gold Coast, Cleveland, Beenleigh line are down for maintenance tomorrow.

So the traffic is going to be 50 km car park. Bring a book!

Quote from: verbatim9It's time to build the busway extension to Indooroopilly from UQ. This can provide a fast Easy-West mass transit solution, speeding up trips by more than half to the Eastern and Southern Suburbs, Gold Coast, as well as to and from the CBD and Southbank from the Western suburbs. In addition having this fast alternative to the slow traffic crawl along Coronation Drive can persuade commuters to ditch the car and travel hassle free.

The busway extension from UQ to Indooroopilly can also provide extra capacity during school terms, notably for Indooroopilly High and St Peters.

Building and planning sensible infrastructure where there is currently gaps can provide enormous benefits for the commuter, thus encouraging a modal shift from the car to public transport and active transport.

The very high mode share for UQ PT is a combination of the student demographic plus an access route that cars cannot use.

This concept could probably be developed into a tunnel under UQ, conversion of the Chancellors Place surface stops to an underground busway station, and then an exit portal at St Lucia into surface roads.

Could also be done at the same time as the student union complex renewal.

It would have an absolute advantage as car could not do this route.

You would need about 800 m of tunnel and one underground station at Chancellors Place. UQ Lakes would probably stay on the surface.

At 400 million/km for tunneling, the cost ball park would be about ~ 320 million or so?

Note - I'm not advocating adoption of this concept, just noting it.

Running Numbers on the Bruce Highway Expansion at North Lakes

A Current Affair has released another YouTube video today about the project and impacted residents from the motorway widening.


I was interested in knowing more about the project, so I went to the public project page on the TMR website. Using public information posted on the TMR project website, I was able to produce my own model of TMR's traffic forecast. And from that pull out a value for the annual compound rate of growth. See below.

Gateway Motorway, Bruce Highway to Pine River upgrade, funding commitment and Bruce Highway (Brisbane – Gympie), Pine River to Dohles Rocks Road interchange, funding commitment
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/gateway-mwy-bruce-highway-pine-river-upgrade-bruce-hwy-brisbane-gympie-pine-river-dohles-rocks-road

QuoteThe department is undertaking integrated planning for the Gateway Motorway and Bruce Highway Upgrades in north Brisbane and the Moreton Bay Region.

Around 160,000 vehicles travel between the Moreton Bay Region and north Brisbane each day using the Gateway Motorway, the Bruce Highway and Gympie Arterial Road. Significant population growth is increasing travel demand through this road corridor, with current traffic levels expected to increase by around 50% by 2041.

So where are these "expectations" coming from? Let's reproduce this in MS Excel.

Count    Year    Traffic           
0    2022    160,000        Rate    2.16%
1    2023    163,451        Total Growth    0.5
2    2024    166,977           
3    2025    170,578           
4    2026    174,258           
5    2027    178,016           
6    2028    181,856           
7    2029    185,779           
8    2030    189,786           
9    2031    193,879           
10    2032    198,061           
11    2033    202,333           
12    2034    206,698           
13    2035    211,156           
14    2036    215,711           
15    2037    220,363           
16    2038    225,117           
17    2039    229,972           
18    2040    234,933           
19    2041    240,136        <--- 50% increase of traffic on today's figures, successfully reproducing TMR's figures.   

Formula
Forecast Traffic = Traffic year prior x (1+R), where R is the compound growth rate in %.
Feel free to run it yourself in MS Excel using the 2022 value as the initial input.

Comments

- The value pulled out from the model - a value of 2.16% annual compound growth - appears to be consistent with normal urban growth in a growing outer suburb.

- Which then suggests that it doesn't appear to assume any major intervention to move mode share at all towards PT. The difference between the MBRC population growth rate and the TMR traffic growth rate is about 0.4% and probably just a noise variation/imprecision.

- If an actual PT mode shift intervention was assumed, we would expect to see a significant deviation between the population growth and the traffic growth. Because PT would be capturing more passengers. Is 0.4% significant?

In other words, the approach here appears to be "predict and provide".

Some things to think about

Elsewhere discussion is that "decide and provide" may be a better approach than "predict and provide" https://transportforthenorth.com/blogs/benefits-of-decide-provide-approach-transport-planning/ On the other hand, if a door-to-door train journey in 2022 and 2041 are the same timewise, and that is the same or worse than PT, maybe it is a valid assumption? I will leave other RBOT members to discuss.

Jonno has often posted word arguments against road expansion; but here I think is quantitative evidence that they really do forecast traffic expectations as if it were inertial, and not able to be managed by interventions like demand management or diversion of extra traffic growth to PT.

MBRC Growth Rate Info

QuoteMoreton Bay Regional Council is Australia's third largest Council with 434,000 residents. In the last decade alone there has been an increase of more than 100,000 people. This trend is predicted to continue with a forecasted population of 530,000 in 2026 and 618,000 by 2036.

(Gives a annual compound growth rate of 2.56%)

Moreton Bay Regional Council
https://mbrc.communityanalytics.com.au/why

I was just up there today. I caught the train with my bike to Mango Hill station and you have to cross 16 lanes of traffic at Anzac Ave and North Lakes Drive to get to the shopping centre. First of all there is no underpass and secondly the lights are set up to make it as difficult as possible to cross the road. You can only cross 4 lanes of traffic at a time unfortunately. Additionally, you have to wait another traffic light cycle to cross another 4 then another cycle to cross another 4, then once again to cross another 2. Takes about 5-6mins before you can get across the road.

It's definitely not set up for Active transport (pedestrian or cycling) in the area. No wonder everyone drives there.

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/96876

Centenary Bridge upgrade on the way
27th December 2022

Premier and Minister for the Olympic and Paralympic Games
The Honourable Annastacia Palaszczuk

The Centenary Bridge upgrade is a step closer with the awarding of the construction contract.

Premier and Minister for the Olympics and Paralympics, and Member for Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk announced it's been awarded to Georgiou Group and BMD Constructions, as a joint venture.

"My government has a strong track record of backing Queensland workers, which is why I'm pleased this joint venture will support good local jobs in our community," the Premier said.

"This upgrade will see a new three lane Centenary Bridge built in Jindalee, as well an  upgrade of the existing bridge, meaning you'll get home safer and sooner.

"More than 85,000 cars use this bridge daily, and that number will increase.

"This is an important step towards busting congestion through our growing region."

Speaker of the House of Representatives and Member for Oxley Milton Dick celebrated the announcement.

"The Centenary Motorway is the key link between Brisbane and the western suburbs," Mr Dick said.

"As our community continues to grow, we need transport to service the needs of commuters, holidaymakers, freight transport and business operators.

"I'm proud the Albanese Government is contributing to such a vital upgrade, making a difference in the lives of those who use the motorway."

State Member for Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh said it was a belated Christmas gift for the community.

"I have advocated for this project since I was elected, as I know how desperately our community wants shovels in the ground," Ms Pugh said.

"Previous tender submissions came in low, and another even promised to build two new bridges with the funding – both options had to be thoroughly explored to make sure we were getting the best value for taxpayers.

"After consideration, we saw that these tender submissions could not deliver on what was promised. I'm pleased we can now move forward with a reliable, Queensland based joint venture, with over 40 years experience.

"The project will double capacity across the river, as well as improve access to Amazon Place Park while preserving the much-loved Jindalee Skate Park.

"We know how important it is to include safe options for cyclists and footpath users, especially those who travel on two wheels, in a wheelchair, mobility device, or pushing a pram.

"Construction will start next year, and I know locals are just as excited as I am."

The upgrade includes a new 3-lane northbound bridge, rehabilitation of the existing bridge to 3 lanes southbound, and opportunities for improved active transport.

The Federal and Queensland Governments are jointly funding the $298.5 million project.

This extra capacity will mean greater efficiency and reduced travel-time between the  CBD and western suburbs, between local destinations, and along the Centenary Motorway.

For more information, visit Centenary Bridge Upgrade | Department of Transport and Main Roads (tmr.qld.gov.au), call 3066 4338, or email metropolitanregion@tmr.qld.gov.au

ENDS

Centenary Bridge Upgrade
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/centenary-bridge-upgrade

QuoteThe Centenary Bridge Upgrade in Jindalee proposes a new 3-lane northbound bridge, rehabilitation of the existing bridges to 3 lanes southbound, plus opportunities for improved active transport.

This extra capacity would provide greater efficiency and travel-time reliability between Brisbane's CBD and the western suburbs, between local destinations, and along the entire Centenary Motorway.

The planning study for the Centenary Motorway Upgrade identified possible staged upgrades along the Centenary Motorway from Sumners Road, Darra, to Frederick Street, Toowong. These staged upgrades are aimed at meeting the region's future transport needs and include options focused on safety, improving travel-time reliability, and new active transport opportunities for pedestrians and people who ride bikes.

The Centenary Bridge carries more than 85,000 vehicles a day and current traffic modelling shows that by 2036, around 152,000 vehicles per day will want to cross the bridge.

 

https://twitter.com/DavidCrisafulli/status/1607568221103853568

The Opposition does have a point IMHO re the timing of this announcement.

Very odd to release the statement today.  I wonder what else is going on.

Also Transport Minister not involved with the statement?

Sent to all outlets:

Centenary Motorway terminal gridlock/congestion not solved by river bridges

27th December 2022

Today the Premier has announced that the Centenary Bridge upgrade has been awarded to Georgiou Group and BMD Constructions, as a joint venture.

This upgrade will see a new three lane Centenary Bridge built in Jindalee, as well an upgrade of the existing bridge.

Centenary Bridge upgrade on the way https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/96876

The problem with the Centenary Motorway is that there is simply too much traffic, and it is only getting worse month by month.  The bridges will just shift around a few of the road choke points, as far as relieving congestion and gridlock they will not. There is a complete lack of prioritised public transport infrastructure along the Centenary and Western Freeway motorway corridors.

What would relieve congestion is to get mode shift, from private motor vehicles to buses.  This would be achieved by providing bus priority in the form of bus lanes/transit lanes as part of the upgrade.  Unfortunately for Brisbane's West, TMR ruled out bus priority years ago.

In August 2018 it was reported in the Couriermail "Why bus lanes will help horror road" https://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/why-bus-lanes-will-help-horror-road/news-story/30b5c8f5351eb388ed61f640dcb1f42c following yet another Centenary Motorway shutdown due to gridlock.  A strong case was advanced for bus priority, but ultimately ignored.

The DG of TMR subsequently ruled out any bus priority lines for the Centenary Motorway in Parliamentary Estimates on 11 December 2020.

https://www.michaelberkman.com.au/estimates_hearings_motorway_bus_lanes_20201211

"Mr BERKMAN: So there are to be no priority bus lanes on the Centenary Motorway following that planning study?

Mr Scales: Not that I am aware of, no.

Mr BERKMAN: Thank you. "

So the failure paradigm continues with today's announcement.  No mention of any bus priority, because there is none.

Welcome to more terminal gridlock!

Robert Dow
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