Airports ...

[James]

I think we've got to be careful before jumping into anything. Remember, at this point, there are only two Q400 services per day serving Wellcamp. Even assuming 100% full loads, that is only 156 passengers per day. Toowoomba also isn't the kind of destination where visitors tend to solely use public transport (i.e. not hire a car), hence I think demand for a PT service at this point would be near zero.

I don't see a need to extend a bus service there at this point. If there are calls for it, I would start with a Greyhound bus service or something along those lines.

[STB]

Be good to have Toowoomba integrated into the TransLink network for better services as well as investigation and implementation of electrified duplicated  dual gauge track from Toowoomba to Rosewood via Well camp Airport

You've got to somehow get up the range first!  The current alignment of the track wouldn't be competitive or sustainable for services to Rosewood and Toowoomba if you are considering a normal passenger type service seen in a major city.

And anyway, I tend to agree with James on this one, until the patronage increases ie: more flights start arriving, I don't think there is a real need for public transport to the area, unless the Wellcamp Airport people want to put on their own bus, of which they would be able to do if they applied for it, which in all honesty is all you need assuming you only get 156 passengers a day.

As the airport takes on more flights, then you may look at extending the local Toowoomba bus network to Wellcamp Airport, rail would only be viable if it's a major airport, of which it isn't currently and isn't likely to be in the foreseeable future, and if you did rail then you might as do the whole lot from Rosewood to the Airport, but that's a massive project in itself and would require some major engineering to get up the range, of which it is pretty steep.

[SurfRail]

When Tullamarine or even Coolangatta has its railway then perhaps some attention can be given to the obvious market of 300 people per day at Wellcamp.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Jetgo cancels Roma-Sydney route before it begins

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> New Sunshine Coast runway attracts 900 submissions

[#Metro]

Small airlines would be one of the less successful start-ups of any industry. The list of failures in Australia is endless. As such I would be reluctant to buy tickets too far into the future. Getting your money back is only part of the problem when they fail.

And now people want to build HSR. Even the airlines struggle to break even...

[ozbob]

Gold Coast Bulletin --> Gold Coast Airport to undergo multi-million dollar upgrade just in time for the 2018 Commonwealth Games

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Toowoomba airport in international negotiations

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Archerfield Airport abandons plans for regular passenger services

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Two Queensland airports in Skytrax world's top 50

[pandmaster]

And now people want to build HSR. Even the airlines struggle to break even...

QANTAS and Virgin are both making profits now that their dumb "capacity war" is over. SYD-MEL is consistently in the top 5 busiest routes in the world and BNE-SYD is up there consistently as well. If major airlines can not make a profit then there is something wrong with them; there is no shortage of demand.

Regional airlines are a different story. In the case of Rex, they folded when they lost contracts and did it while in a good position (compare with the Ansett fiasco).

[#Metro]

Is 'busiest' a valid metric? What is it describing?

If capacity is an issue, get a bigger plane.

[Arnz]

Capacity isn't a issue.  In fact there was overcapacity as a result of the past 'capacity war' which lead to massive losses for both major Airline groups (the Qantas-Jetstar group and the Virgin-TigerAir group).

A full plane does not equal profit in the airline industry, it is mostly about the yields and capacity control.

Also the regional airline that shut up shop was Skytrans, which lost the contracts to Rex.

[James]

Brisbanetimes --> Two Queensland airports in Skytrax world's top 50

Brisbane airport, Top 50 in the world? Ha! Arriving in Brisbane (domestic) after travelling overseas, the only thing which was missing was a sign with "Welcome to Hicksville - please wind your clocks back 1 hour and 20 years."

BAC charge for trolleys at the domestic terminal (something which most major airports have done away with), the pick-up area shambles is far from fixed, the Airtrain is very ordinary, the International terminal always seems to be constantly under renovation, and then you have the one runway issue, where Cessnas share a runway with 747s. This being said, the quality of all airports in Australia is pretty ordinary.

[SurfRail]

I'm more amazed that OOL is also in the top 50 at 42nd! It must be the smallest in the top half of the list.

As I understand it the results are generated from public feedback so there must have been plenty of people with favourable impressions of both.

[pandmaster]

Also the regional airline that shut up shop was Skytrans, which lost the contracts to Rex.

My mistake. Long live Rex!

[pandmaster]

Is 'busiest' a valid metric? What is it describing?

If capacity is an issue, get a bigger plane.

SYD-MEL-SYD is #3 for daily flights, #4 for monthly seat capacity and #5 for annual passengers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_busiest_passenger_air_routes). With only two airlines offering frequent service (Jestar and Tiger sporadic), surely there is money to be made on the route? The demand is there, it is just up for airlines to get the supply right (as has been reported recently, there are profits to be made). My initial point was that the failure of regional airlines is not an indictment of the viability of HSR.

I struggle to see planes bigger than a 737/A320 forming the mainstay of a domestic fleet. Much more flexibility than bigger planes. The only capacity issues there have been recently have been too much.

[#Metro]

SYD-MEL-SYD is #3 for daily flights, #4 for monthly seat capacity and #5 for annual passengers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_busiest_passenger_air_routes). With only two airlines offering frequent service (Jestar and Tiger sporadic), surely there is money to be made on the route? The demand is there, it is just up for airlines to get the supply right (as has been reported recently, there are profits to be made). My initial point was that the failure of regional airlines is not an indictment of the viability of HSR.

I struggle to see planes bigger than a 737/A320 forming the mainstay of a domestic fleet. Much more flexibility than bigger planes. The only capacity issues there have been recently have been too much.

In a standard scenario, profits are driven towards zero (after opportunity costs realised - economic profit, not accounting profit)
When airlines make losses, this is the signal for them to reduce capacity. When there is more profit, this is a signal to add capacity.

Will the rail line make money enough to pay back its operational and construction costs? Will it make a decent profit from its operation?
It seems not, unless it were for coverage purposes.

There are also opportunity costs. EVEN IF the project can cover costs, if the gov't is involved, it needs to be compared against alternatives such as improved PT transport in cities.

[pandmaster]

In a standard scenario, profits are driven towards zero (after opportunity costs realised - economic profit, not accounting profit)
When airlines make losses, this is the signal for them to reduce capacity. When there is more profit, this is a signal to add capacity.

Are not all economic profits driven to zero only under perfect competition, of which a duopoly does not qualify? The "standard scenario" is a myth that does not exist in the real world.

When profits increase, the airlines only have the incentive to increase capacity if they think that their overall profit will increase. Excess demand is the ideal situation for airlines: raise prices and maintain capacity (and thus costs).

Will the rail line make money enough to pay back its operational and construction costs? Will it make a decent profit from its operation?
It seems not, unless it were for coverage purposes.

That depends on what study you look at.

There are also opportunity costs. EVEN IF the project can cover costs, if the gov't is involved, it needs to be compared against alternatives such as improved PT transport in cities.

I agree: there are opportunity costs. The opportunity cost of not having HSR is road spending on intercity highways and motorways. Increased spending on airports (e.g. Badgery's Creek). Continued issues with urban growth (as HSR should open up regional areas for commuting). Environmental costs (e.g. aeroplane emissions). Costs from extraordinary events (e.g. planes being grounded for whatever reason).

Indeed there are opportunity costs for building it too and it is unlikely any major urban projects will be undertaken while HSR is built (although CRR, Melbourne Metro and the Second Harbour Crossing could all be integrated with HSR construction). IMHO both urban rail and HSR are worthy of funds and it is a difficult choice which one to prioritise. At the very least a HSR corridor should be preserved, especially in urban areas.

[#Metro]

Are not all economic profits driven to zero only under perfect competition, of which a duopoly does not qualify? The "standard scenario" is a myth that does not exist in the real world.

When profits increase, the airlines only have the incentive to increase capacity if they think that their overall profit will increase. Excess demand is the ideal situation for airlines: raise prices and maintain capacity (and thus costs).

The ideal gas, the perfect heat engine, negative and imaginary numbers do not exist also, and yet are acceptable as theoretical standards that give good practical outcomes. The simple fact that airlines made losses and had to pull back is pretty good real-world evidence that they are pretty close to the knife edge. The observation that other airlines have gone bankrupt/induced to merge (i.e. tiger) also a good indicator.

It's not perfect, but it doesn't need to be. The OPEC oil has also become massively cheaper as well so it will be a while I think before it is competitive.

That depends on what study you look at.

If people think it is worthwhile, let them pump their own money into it. The freight railway that went from Adelaide to Darwin didn't work out so great...

I agree: there are opportunity costs. The opportunity cost of not having HSR is road spending on intercity highways and motorways. Increased spending on airports (e.g. Badgery's Creek). Continued issues with urban growth (as HSR should open up regional areas for commuting). Environmental costs (e.g. aeroplane emissions). Costs from extraordinary events (e.g. planes being grounded for whatever reason).

But it would not. Which HSR countries ripped up their intercity motorways after they put HSR in? There are air links between Australian Cities and this has not prevented intercity highway upgrades and maintenance (Pacific Highway seems to be in a permanent state of upgrade) so why would HSR be any different?

It would be an additional cost, over and above what we have currently.

My inclination is not to support HSR, purely because the fund levels are so massive I would like to see core upgrades to cities such as CRR, LRT etc.

[Arnz]

Tigerair had recently been bought out and absorbed into the Virgin Australia group not long ago as the LCC competitor to Jetstar (a Qantas Group airline), so the airline industry is basically a duopoly.

[James]

Are not all economic profits driven to zero only under perfect competition, of which a duopoly does not qualify? The "standard scenario" is a myth that does not exist in the real world.

When profits increase, the airlines only have the incentive to increase capacity if they think that their overall profit will increase. Excess demand is the ideal situation for airlines: raise prices and maintain capacity (and thus costs).

I agree: there are opportunity costs. The opportunity cost of not having HSR is road spending on intercity highways and motorways. Increased spending on airports (e.g. Badgery's Creek). Continued issues with urban growth (as HSR should open up regional areas for commuting). Environmental costs (e.g. aeroplane emissions). Costs from extraordinary events (e.g. planes being grounded for whatever reason).

Indeed there are opportunity costs for building it too and it is unlikely any major urban projects will be undertaken while HSR is built (although CRR, Melbourne Metro and the Second Harbour Crossing could all be integrated with HSR construction). IMHO both urban rail and HSR are worthy of funds and it is a difficult choice which one to prioritise. At the very least a HSR corridor should be preserved, especially in urban areas.

Firstly, motorway expansions aren't really for passenger trips between Brisbane and Sydney directly - they're more designed for the increased load from trucks on the road and trips between intermediate points (Coffs Harbour - Ballina, for example). These days, you'd only drive to Sydney if you wanted to have your car with you (which is something HSR can't do, ever). Assuming 7L/100km, it would cost around $100 in fuel (this is best case scenario) and take three to five times as long as flying.

Secondly, is a new airport for each capital city in a remote location more expensive than building a HSR rail line of around ~2000km in length?

I think HSR is a pipe-dream, particularly when poor Gold Coast line commuters have a pathetic 60km/hr speed between Beenleigh and the CBD. Focus on fast commuter rail within the major cities first, where it may perform well and can compete with competing modes (i.e. the car, which can't really go fast in peak hour traffic).

[#Metro]

Competition is a degree, not a box. In any case, a duopoly airline does not alone justify HSR construction.
Competition could also be increased if the Gov't repealed some rules - IIRC I think there is one rule that does not permit
an international flight to then act as a domestic flight (i.e. fly from Dubai to Brisbane, and then do Brisbane-Sydney as domestic).

It's not "perfect" -true- but nothing is perfect.
We still need to make predictions, and see if it is closer or further away vs some kind of benchmark.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_competition

Where a third party sees the opportunity to make money, it will enter the competition (i.e Tiger Air). The observation that TigerAir experienced financial difficulties and struggled to make money, and hence had to be absorbed is evidence that there isn't excess profit in the industry, and is further consistent with the view that (economic) profits are being driven towards zero. Regular price-wars and aggressive discounting are other indications.

Difference between a firm's accounting and economic profit   

Difference between a firm's accounting and economic profit

[#Metro]

I think HSR is a pipe-dream, particularly when poor Gold Coast line commuters have a pathetic 60km/hr speed between Beenleigh and the CBD. Focus on fast commuter rail within the major cities first, where it may perform well and can compete with competing modes (i.e. the car, which can't really go fast in peak hour traffic).

For a fraction of HSR funds, you could separate the GC line from the... - oh wait, that would be Cross River Rail -.

Fund Cross River Rail II!!

Gold Coast Light Rail all the way to Tweed Heads!

Bus Network Reno for all of QLD

Rolls-Royce Signalling for QR

Raise platform heights all across the QR network

Expand Sydney Light Rail

etc etc.

So many more people would benefit from upgrades like that than the numbers from HSR. This is why I oppose it in its current form. Of course I will always leave room for doubt - maybe someone will work out a way to massively reduce labour costs of construction in the future using robots or the fuel for planes will massively increases - making HSR economical, but until then, save the land, don't build.

[Arnz]

Competition could also be increased if the Gov't repealed some rules - IIRC I think there is one rule that does not permit
an international flight to then act as a domestic flight (i.e. fly from Dubai to Brisbane, and then do Brisbane-Sydney as domestic).

Believe that rule only applies to overseas based airlines (eg Emirates and Singapore Air), and overseas countries also have the a similar rule in their countries.  There are temporary exceptions in extreme circumstances (such as the Ansett collapse when international airlines were temporarily allowed to carry domestic passengers on domestic legs). 

Australian based airlines are allowed to do such a routing and pick up domestic-only passengers on the domestic bit (eg Jetstar's MEL-SYD-HNL (Hawaii)).

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Sunshine Coast airport expansion opposed by Peter Wellington

[pandmaster]

Brisbanetimes --> Sunshine Coast airport expansion opposed by Peter Wellington

He is right, there are higher priorities. The new runway is fine in terms of aircraft size. Diversions during inclement weather is an issue, I am not sure if that can be addressed without the second runway. Regardless, there are higher priorities.

[Arnz]

I echo Peter's sentiments.  In terms of priorities, any MCY expansions would be WELL BELOW the list of priorities.  Especially with the endless calls of flights north to CNS (a Jetstar hub), which can be done without any runway extensions.

Despite the short runway (in which CASA had since lifted the 'restrictions' imposed on MCY last year) SYD flights doesn't face any aircraft load restrictions at all, and MEL flights may face the occasional aircraft load restrictions during the occasional very windy weather.  During the short time Tigerair flew from Sunshine Coast to Adelaide, most flights didn't face any load restrictions (with the exception of weather events).

Perth and/or Darwin flights to MCY would definitely face load restrictions as they are longer flights (with the short runway unlikely to take a fully loaded plane from a 4+ hr flight), plus the low demand wouldn't make the flights viable.

Depending on weather conditions across the Tasman, the MCY-AKL (Auckland) flights may be load restricted as a result of the short runway, but that's a different issue entirely.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Brisbane Airport domestic terminal set to expand

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Brisbane Airport develops 'intelligent' CCTV

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Queensland airports to go full international

[ozbob]

Twitter

Dave Andrews ‏@chopperdaveqld 12m

New airport runway progress at @BrisbaneAirport #chopperview ✈️

[ozbob]

BNE New Parallel Runway - Phase 1 Complete

[#Metro]

Busy as hong kong or singapore today? Seems a bit steep.

But if true, then maybe that bus not such a bad idea.

[pandmaster]

Busy as hong kong or singapore today? Seems a bit steep.

Traffic forecasting: not exactly an exact science. The AirportLink was meant to be busier than the Lincoln Tunnel in New York after all.

Three years before paving can start.  Nothing can be done about it unfortunately.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Sunshine Coast Airport says 'use us or lose us' as Fly Local campaign begins

[pandmaster]

Brisbanetimes --> Sunshine Coast Airport says 'use us or lose us' as Fly Local campaign begins

As a former Sunshine Coast resident I found the airport very convenient and much easier than going to Brisbane. Unfortunately there are not as many flights to choose from as Brisbane. For people from Caloundra or Noosa the airport is quite a trek so I understand if they just go to Brisbane anyway. The time (and probably financial) penalties from connecting in Sydney or Melbourne probably make the airport uncompetitive for wider travel. I have never heard of anyone using a connection from MCY. More routes would probably make it more attractive, however I doubt there is any money to be made from them. For a lot of people you are going to SYD or MEL and the flight times have to suit and the fare has to be reasonable.

It always surprised me that Qantas did not return to MCY with a daily flight for the Noosa crowd.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> New airport flight path could impact 40,000 residents: Federal MP

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> New Gold Coast flight path plan rejected by council committee

[verbatim9]

http://m.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/lifestyle/m-airport-redevelopment-plan-takes-off/story-fnjdow5o-1227431203166 With the Gold Coast Airport redevelopment going ahead. Time to rethink transport to and from. Making the double deckers (777) redundant and replacing them with low floor Hybrid Wi-Fi enabled articulated busses. (Keeping the same route number 777).