**Calculation**(there may be errors, so feedback is encouraged)

1 hectare = 10,000 square metres

Area of circle = pi x r^2

3.14 x 500 meters x 500 meters = 785 000 m^2 divided by 10,000 m2 = 78.5 ha per bus stop

78.5 ha per bus stop x 14 bus stops = 1099 ha # Some bus stops overlap, assume 15% overlap, so maybe take 85% of this figure

0.85 x 1099 ha = 934.15 hectares #Now calculate how many people live in this area on average. I used 18 persons per hectare.

934.15 hectares x 18 = 16,814 people (seems a bit high)

Assume that everyone makes on average 3 trips per day (Perth uses 3.3)

3 trips x 16,814 people in catchment = 50, 442 trips per day

Now assume that just 7% of these people will use public transport (Jonno, look away !!). I use a slightly higher value because we aren't at Mandurah distances from the CBD.

PT Mode Share

0.07 x 50,442 = 3530.94 public transport trips per day. Because there are rail stations, some PT trips that people make will go to bus, some will go to train. Assume that 30% catch the train at Mitchelton, Clayfield, Eagle Junction etc and shun the bus.

3530.04 x 0.3 = 1059 trips (30%)

3530 - 1059 trips =

**2471 trips per day latent PT demand for BUS in the catchment area.****Now, to compare this to BUZ levels:**52 weeks in a year x 5.5 days a week (the 0.5 is to catch weekend patronage) x 2471 trips per day =

**706, 706 trips per annum.**If a BUZ has 1 million passengers per year, this is 70% of a BUZ service.

So in conclusion, it does look like there is demand, at least latent demand in theory on the Western Section. In practice the western section isn't doing so well but the eastern section east of Kedron Brook is doing well - this may be due to much higher density on the Eastern Section plus Toombul being a much bigger interchange than Brookside, and having a much denser population around Toombul interchange (so more people travel to Toombul to do the change).

I would be very very very eager to see what would happen if the bus left Mitchelton/Brookside, went straight down Stafford Road and then down the busway to the RBWH and the CBD. Because at least in theory, the latent demand should be there.

Assuming 16 hours of service and four buses per hour, this works out to be about (on average) 15 people on the bus (had to half as there are buses TO CBD and FROM CBD), which seems reasonable compared to others in the area that run to the CBD. The 375 and 345 runs every 15 minutes and have about 1 million pax per year... so it does seem to be in the ballpark.