Ministerial Statement: Go Card records 500,000 free trips in one month

[ozbob]

I heard a short report on ABC News that mentioned around 5 million free trips since last June.  If confirmed, hardly a raging success ....

[ozbob]

Nonsense.

5 million free trips since the introduction of nine and free in 9 months is around 550,000 trips per month.  It was 500,000 per month after the first month.

What is not stated is the reduction in the number of paid trips, overall trips has fallen ...

No, not a success at all.  If it was, there would be a real gain in patronage as the carrot is there to drive it.

Hopefully the fare review kicks this free after nine into touch and get a better lower overall base fare ...

[ozbob]

Average weekly trips is around 3.3 million (just a guestimate see --> http://translink.com.au/about-translink/reporting-and-publications/patronage-and-customer-satisfaction)

So in 9 months there are around 120 million trips.  As a % the free trips are 5/120 = 4.2%

Which the major contribution is the Friday weekday commute trip home ...

[somebody]

It's a failed policy, for sure.  When we get March patronage data we'll be able to quantify the failure a bit more accurately.

[ozbob]

Found this, --> http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableOffice/questionsAnswers/2013/121-2013.pdf

I think the costing is a bit off,  bit more than $7.2million,  but any way, clearly not driving any real patronage.  Just pax being turned away because of high base fares ....

[ozbob]

Can tighten it a bit with the info in the question on notice.

8 months and one week.   5.8 million free trips 

So as a %  5.8/109 = 5.3% of trips free,  yep clearly a failure.

Bit odd the costing.  Even using the best estimate cost is $12M ...

Ed:  I pasted the patronage data in a spread sheet and for July - February, comes up as 109 million trips, add 3 for the week in July,

Accurate figure is then 5.9/112 = 5.3%

[somebody]

Bit odd the costing.  Even using the best estimate cost is $12M ...

$7m was the costing of 10 then free.  I think Ms Trad has her wires a little crossed here.

[ozbob]

http://www.scottemerson.com.au/media-releases/go-card-records-500000-free-trips-in-one-month.html

Go Card records 500,000 free trips in one month

Friday, 27 July 2012 19:36

The 500,000th free go card trip was taken this week, exactly one month after the Newman Government's nine-and-free fare incentive was introduced.

Transport and Main Roads Minister Scott Emerson said the effort to tackle Labor's declining public transport affordability had been embraced by passengers.

"The 500,000th free trip was taken on Wednesday, and I would expect the 600,000th free trip to be taken today – the fifth Friday that regular Monday to Friday passengers will travel home for free," he said.

"All up passengers have saved almost $2 million in fares since June 25, delivering real cost of living relief for Queenslanders.

"Last week there were 135,000 free trips taken and I would expect that number to rise with university students returning for second semester this week.

"We are restoring confidence in our public transport network by improving the affordability, reliability and frequency of public transport."

During the January-to-March quarter, affordability of public transport dropped to an all-time low – 45 per cent on trains and 51 and 53 per cent on buses and ferries.

Under the nine-and-free scheme a regular weekday commuter to the CBD from Oxley or Mitchelton will save up to $220 a year while customers travelling from Varsity Lakes or Palmwoods will save up to $642 each year.

No the $2million is from Mr Emerson.

It was $2million for 5 weeks, now only $7million for 8 months and one week?

[somebody]

That $2m is the cost over just over a month.  This link: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/free-fares-not-blowing-hole-in-budget-emerson-20120731-23bdd.html
mentions the original estimated cost of $18m over 2 years.  It's clearly blown that budget, even if the $18m is on top of the $7m p.a. that the 10-then-free was estimated to have cost.

But in any event, Ms Trad has her wires crossed, which is what I originally said.

[ozbob]

That $2m is the cost over just over a month.  This link: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/free-fares-not-blowing-hole-in-budget-emerson-20120731-23bdd.html
mentions the original estimated cost of $18m over 2 years.  It's clearly blown that budget, even if the $18m is on top of the $7m p.a. that the 10-then-free was estimated to have cost.

But in any event, Ms Trad has her wires crossed, which is what I originally said.

How can Ms Trad have her wires crossed, not following.  She asked the Question, the response is from the Minister ... who says the cost is $7 million ...

http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableOffice/questionsAnswers/2013/121-2013.pdf

... As at the end of February 2013, forgone revenue for 2012-13 associated with the nine and free
travel incentive is estimated to total $7.2 million (excluding GST).
Since the introduction of this initiative on the 25 June 2012, more than 5.8 million free trips
have been taken by commuters.

He has said previously it cost $2 million for a month and now is saying 8 months is only costing $7 million ??  LOL

[somebody]

I'm not completely sure what I meant either!

Seems that I couldn't read that answer until I convinced my browser that the page had changed.

I think the discrepancy between the $2m/mth vs $7.2m/8mths is explained in the cost of the 10 then free.

[ozbob]

Yes, probably suggesting there was a cost to the 10 and free, and the 9 and free is just a further cost.

Typical 'polytickal' accounting processes .... 

In any case, not going real well is it?

So based on just the average fare cost of $2, is really around $12million for 8 months so $18 million for a year ...

I hope they have the courage to flick this, it is not a good system ...

[somebody]

Yes, probably suggesting there was a cost to the 10 and free, and the 9 and free is just a further cost.

And labor cannot point this out because 10 then free was their own policy so how can they possibly bag it?

[ozbob]

Yes, two wrongs don't make a right .. 

Just move on with a decent fare system. 

[#Metro]

What a load of BS and crap mr emersons release is. Complete and utter waste of money hinging the friday trip home free. They're going to go home anyway and pay. More fare evasion and leakage. Nothing to celebrate. Very concerning seeing socialist policies coming from the LNP.

[ozbob]

If they want to differentiate the cost as being 10 and free and, the 9 and free component, to be consistent the free trips should be broken up as well.

For example the number of free trips take as part of 11 or more journeys, and the number of trips taken as the 10th journey? 

My bet is the bulk is in the 10th journey. 

Stupid?  Just as stupid as saying something costs $7million when it is really costing a lot more than that.

We have a new budgeting model.

Health annual cost $9.2 billion, but only cost $0.2 billion this financial year, the other $9billion is actually the cost per year before we were elected ...  so that is a nasty Labor cost ...

(made up health costs, but you get the drift ... )

GIVE ME STRENGTH!!

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

10th April 2013

More evidence of the fare fail and spin in SEQ

Greetings,

A Question on Notice [ http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableOffice/questionsAnswers/2013/121-2013.pdf ] requesting details of the funding on free trips is interesting, and confirms the diabolical nature of the present fare system.

Since the introduction of the free after nine paid journeys in a week, there have been around 5.8 free million trips till the end of February 2013.  The total number of trips during the corresponding period is around 112 million trips [ http://translink.com.au/about-translink/reporting-and-publications/patronage-and-customer-satisfaction ], so as a percentage free trips are around 5.3% of all trips.

The cost of the initiative was stated in the question response to be $7.2 million.  This is rather odd. In a statement on 27th July 2012, it was stated by Mr Emerson that approximately $2 million dollars was saved for the first month corresponding to 500,000 free trips for the month [ http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2012/7/27/go-card-records-500000-free-trips-in-one-month ].

The absolute direct cost of  fares lost  for the free travel is therefore presently around $12 million dollars for the first 8 months of this present financial year, and actually $18 million dollars then for a full year.

It would appear that the question response is attempting to differentiate the costs into two components although not said,  the cost of the initiative for trips in the 11th and subsequent free journeys and the cost for the trips in the 10th free journey, but using the total number of free trips to perhaps in an attempt to make the initiative look a little better.

If they want to differentiate the cost as being 10 and free and, the 9 and free component, to be consistent the free trips should be broken up as well.

For example the number of free trips take as part of 11 or more journeys, and the number of free trips taken as the 10th journey?

This is an excellent example why citizens are becoming very disappointed in the political spin process.

The fare system is a disaster, the free after 10 and 9 is a failure. Patronage has continued to fall and fare revenue continues to worsen despite the obscene fare price increases.

Enjoy your day ...

Best wishes
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

[somebody]

GIVE ME STRENGTH!!

Par for the course with budget announcements.