How many seats will the ALP end up with?

[ozbob]

10 seats is the number required to be a "party"?

Will the ALP gain enough seats?

[Mr X]

I think we will end up with ALP on 16, LNP on 69 with the Independents in Maryborough (Chris Foley), Gladstone (Liz Cunningham), Burnett (Rob Messenger) and Nicklin (Peter Wellington) returned. I can't see Katter winning any seats.

ALP will lose all their remaining Gold Coast seats (4) with their biggest losses coming from their Brisbane stronghold. Looking at the seats north of the river between Brisbane and the sunny coast, I can only see them retaining Sandgate, Nudgee and maybe Morayfield. Nanango will probably fall to the LNP. They should be fine with their seats in Ipswich, Inala, Woodridge, Logan, Bundamba, South Brisbane and Waterford. The rest should be very concerned.

I am hoping for a swing to the Greens here in South Brisbane but I can't see it happening.

[achiruel]

I wouldn't be surprised if KAP makes a good showing in Nanango, maybe even win it.

[Arnz]

I can see Rachel Nolan struggling to hold onto her Ipswich seat, considering the "bus route/flexilink debacle" in her time as Transport Minister in the areas of Ipswich where the bus routes were initially axed for the Flexilink service.  2 routes has since been reinstated when she was sacked as Transport Minister

[ozbob]

Yes Ipswich is going to be interesting, FlexiLink debacle hurt.  Independent Ms Petersen is well regarded in the electorate.

Inala and Bundamba will stay ALP I agree. 

Mr Wendt Ipswich West might be in trouble as well, strong LNP candidate Mr Choat with some QR connections.

[ozbob]

Mount Ommaney, Mrs Attwood (ALP) fine local member retiring.  LNP will probably take this seat.

[#Metro]

What about the Sunshine Coast, will that buck the trend?

[Arnz]

Apart from Kawana and Noosa being ALP during Beattie's tenure, don't expect anything to change with the LNP likely to hold their seats (and are in contention for Ministerial spots as well).

[somebody]

tallyroom.com.au are forecasting 14, with Morayfield and all seats less safe lost.  +Ipswich lost.

Sounds about right.

[ozbob]

I think I will head up to Ipswich this afternoon, should be interesting.  

I briefed a number of candidates in the area on public and active transport issues following invitations from the candidates.  All parties including independent except the ALP.  

[mufreight]

I can see Rachel Nolan struggling to hold onto her Ipswich seat, considering the "bus route/flexilink debacle" in her time as Transport Minister in the areas of Ipswich where the bus routes were initially axed for the Flexilink service.  2 routes has since been reinstated when she was sacked as Transport Minister

And in addition Ipswich is a railway town, the sell off has hurt and the loss of almost 400 jobs at Redbank that the workers had been assured were safe has done even more damage all while Nolan was Transport Minister.
Then there are the job losses in local industry, Bradken reduced to a skeleton. Krugers shut down, Hancocks ply mill shut down and the Queensland Hardboards plant gone and staff reductions at the Dinmore meatworks with flow on effects to other small businesses in the Ipswich area. 
All of which gets added to the missmanagement of Wivenhoe, increasing rises in the cost of water, electricity, vehicle registration and public transport.
At present to many in the Ipswich area LABOR is a dirty word.

[STB]

I'm predicting 15-19 seats and at this stage my most upsetting thing about this obvious LNP win for me personally at least (other than transport issues of course), is the now obvious loss to the civil unions from the promised repealing of those laws.

[HappyTrainGuy]

Who knows. Who cares. As long as Anna is outta here I'll be a happy chappy. Bring back Sir Joh!  

[achiruel]

Bring back Sir Joh! 

Admittedly, the Joh Gov't did do some good things for PT (primarily suburban electrification), but I'd rather not return to the days of a Police State.

[somebody]

I'm predicting 15-19 seats and at this stage my most upsetting thing about this obvious LNP win for me personally at least (other than transport issues of course), is the now obvious loss to the civil unions from the promised repealing of those laws.

Why's the LNP win bad for Transport?  CRR was deferred by Labor anyway.  There could be a new broom and some competence.

[ozbob]

I think I will head up to Ipswich this afternoon, should be interesting.  

I briefed a number of candidates in the area on public and active transport issues following invitations from the candidates.  All parties including independent except the ALP.  

I was around Ippy today,  hey if you stuff the punters  you get the boot! Ha!

[#Metro]

How many seats will the ALP get? The whole party won't need a bus, they'll all fit into a flexilink taxi...

[somebody]

ALP's Rachel Nolan ahead in Ipswich!

Wayne Wendt in Ipswich West behind.  Courier-Mail's Qld votes page says that he was saying he wasn't in danger.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/guide/electorateindex.htm

[Arnz]

ALP's Rachel Nolan ahead in Ipswich!

Wayne Wendt in Ipswich West behind.  Courier-Mail's Qld votes page says that he was saying he wasn't in danger.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/guide/electorateindex.htm

Nolan's now slightly behind.  She's in trouble, as expected.

[somebody]

ABC giving an ALP of:
Jo Ann Miller in Bundamba
Anastacia Palas... in Inala
Bill Byrne in Rockhapmton
Desley Scott in Woodridge.

ALP ahead in about 5 other seats, including the Premier's.

Jeff Seeney states that 10 seats is normally required to be a party, but it is up to the discretion of Parliament.

Ever head of any of the above names, except the Transport Minister?

[somebody]

Look at the ABC: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/

Prediction is 10.  Not sure what the 5th seat the ALP have "won" is?

EDIT: 5th seat is Sth Brisbane.
EDIT: ABC's computer is giving Mackay to ALP, but I'm not convinced it understands the effect of KAP.  Probably won't know that one until next week.
ALP ahead in Mulgrave and Bulimba only

Not likely to reach the 10 seats just before 8pm.

[somebody]

From AEC website they have 7 seats for ALP on primary vote.

Anna seems to be pulling it back and will be ok on Grns preferences. Issue is she will resign in coming weeks and force a by-election and the ALP incomer may pull it back a bit.

Problem for them now is that they have lost most of their future potentials for minister and leader and will take about 2-3 elections to get it back.

Not that I can see (ABC?).  What are the 6th and 7th seats?

I think LNP will get in in Mackay on KAP preferences, in spite of what the computer says, and likely Mulgrave also.  I could be wrong though.  Assuming the ALP gets in Bulimba, and don't pull any other seats out of the bag then that means a 6 seat opposition.

[Otto]

Labor at 9pm

[#Metro]

Looks like Annastacia is the next leader of the ALP I would say! She has the most support.

LOOK at Anna Bligh's margin in West End/South Brisbane though! It is PAPER thin!

And WHERE Is Ipswich??? Did they vote LNP?! 
No way!

[#Metro]

One party state...

[Mr X]

I worked in an electoral booth in East Brisbane
Anna Bligh won our booth by just 18 votes, with most of the preferences from the Greens going to the LNP!

[somebody]

Yeah, it's not entirely clear that the ALP will win the bi-election.  Still, they can give a defeated minister a second chance.  Possibilities
1) Cameron Dick
2) Andrew Fraser
3) Geoff Wilson

[somebody]

I don't have sympathy for the defeated senior figures.  Where was the "night of the long knives"?

I guess the party isn't likely to put Andrew Fraser into Sth Bris as he's too much Anna's right hand man.

[Mr X]

Yeah, it's not entirely clear that the ALP will win the bi-election.  Still, they can give a defeated minister a second chance.  Possibilities
1) Cameron Dick
2) Andrew Fraser
3) Geoff Wilson

No way will I vote for anyone who has just been dumped from their electorate. And no way will my vote go towards electing someone who just wants to use us as a stepping stone to be leader.

[ozbob]

The ALP could put Elvis Presley as the candidate and I don't think he would win.

The LNP will run with the same candidate I expect.  It would be a slap in the face for that candidate if they don't.

[#Metro]

Andrew Fraser was DUMPED. DO THEY NOT UNDERSTAND THAT?!
He's from the Old Government too - what is the point? Anna may as well stay!

Maybe they should put Kevin Rudd in there! LOL

[somebody]

The LNP will run with the same candidate I expect.  It would be a slap in the face for that candidate if they don't.

Everyone who is better is probably already elected.

The ALP could put Elvis Presley as the candidate and I don't think he would win.

I'm not as negative about the ALP's chances.  With the result already in and a change gotten so why would the swing go further towards the new government?  Historically bi-elections swing against the government, although I'm not so sure that applies to bi-elections so close to a change.  But Anna still got in in spite of being quite hated across the state.  I don't know Anna is particularly popular in South Brisbane, but I could be wrong.

[#Metro]

200 votes
add in knowledge of current gov
plus add in irritation of having to vote AGAIN

= LNP gain

[Stillwater]

A by-election in South Brisbane could be held in conjunction with the local government elections.  Less cost.

[Mr X]

The ECQ and AEC don't like running two elections across political levels on the same date.

I can recall my supervisor last night was talking about this type of thing just last night. Key issues:
- you'd need two (three?) different ballot boxes
- two different elector rolls, people would need to have their name looked up twice, which runs into the issue of someone voting for the state candidate but not for the council one by mistake, and vice versa
- three different counts, as there would be count for south brisbane MP, local councillor and lord mayor
- overlapping boundaries and the possibility of the vote being corrupted by electors being given ballot papers they shouldn't be receiving
- overlap of local issues and electors being confused between candidates on both levels

Coordinating it within 5 weeks and establishing procedures would make it an organisational nightmare.

[Stillwater]

It's one seat - can be managed.

[Mr X]

Doubtful, but we'll see how it goes.

Being a very high profile seat, I can imagine the council candidates and lord mayor candidates would well enjoy their campaign being overridden by state issues...

[Stillwater]

The seat of Bulimba has been declared for LNP - by 70 or so votes.  That leaves ALP with less than a netball team in the Parliament, and with the South Brisbane by-election still to come.  Is it possible that Labor will get down to just five seats?  With such a weak Opposition, the role of groups such as this one to monitor the government's performance becomes that more important.  Do we offer to work with the government on its infrastructure planning?  Connecting SEQ 2031 was so unrealistic.  While elements of the plan may still be alive, some of its more fanciful projections need to be re-examined or dropped.

[Gazza]

That leaves ALP with less than a netball team in the Parliament, and with the South Brisbane by-election still to come.

Sounds funny, but if the ALP were down to 5, RBoT could be a more powerful lobby on PT than the ALP lol.

[Golliwog]

How do you get 5? I though with the LNP winning Bulimba, the ALP have 7 seats, so even if they lose South Brisbane (which I don't think they will) they've still got 6.