Redcliffe Peninsula Line [was MBRL (Petrie to Kippa Ring)]

[NedKelly]

With regards to this line, what about throwing something else into the mix, light rail? I have dreamt up two options, one being very optimistic and full of wishful thinking and the second a more practical option.

Option 1 - commencing at Petrie railway station, running along the current corridor to Kallangur, then running up through the middle of Anzac Ave to Rothwell. The line could then splits in two, one running a short extension to Deception Bay and the other (main line) continuing along the middle of Anzac Ave, right down to the water?s edge near the cliff top intersection with Redcliffe Pde. The line could again split near the shopping centre at Kippa-Ring and turn right, running down past the car dealers and bowling alley along Snook St and Elizabeth Ave to Clontarf, with the possibility of it then looping back around along the water on Hornibrook Esp to Wood Point and up through Oxley Ave to Redcliffe. Running along Oxley Ave could lend itself to the possibility of continuing up to Scarborough.  This system would assist in linking the Redcliffe Peninsula with the QR network and a nice little network within the Peninsula itself.

Option 2 - the simpler option to just get it done, would be light rail running from Petrie along the current preserved corridor to Kippa-Ring but then merging into the middle of Anzac Ave all the way to the intersection of Anzac Ave and Redcliffe Pde.

Both of these would link Petrie with the QR network for commuters to and from the Brisbane CBD as well as local transport within the Peninsula. It would link Redcliffe Hospital with another mode of transport directly into the QR network as well as visitors to the water front precinct of Redcliffe.

[ozbob]

Welcome Ned!  Great post!   

The SEQIPP has some information on the corridor.
A delivery timeframe of somewhere from 2010 to 2026 and $550M (2009 estimate).  Funding is the critical issue of course.

It is possible once the Gold Coast Light rail is up and running that a move to light rail elsewhere could be a real possibility.

[ozbob]

From the Redcliffe and Bayside Herald 18th November 2009 page 5

Push for rail link picks up speed

Push for rail link picks up speed

THE ongoing push for a Petrie to Kippa-Ring rail link has gained support from state MP Lillian van Litsenburg. In a recent Redcliffe Hospital Foundation newsletter, Ms van Litsenburg said she had "always supported a fully integrated transport system for Redcliffe, which includes a rail service".

"I have had several meetings with the Minister for Transport about the railway... she said. "It's great to know that it will be ready to go earlier if any future Federal Government funding becomes available." It is a shift in thinking from Ms van Litsenburg who, in March before the state election, said "there are more important things for Redcliffe (than a railway) and it won't be the quickest way for Redcliffe people to get to the city".

The Moreton Bay Regional Council has lodged its initial proposal for the project with Infrastructure Queensland and Mayor Allan Sutherland said he hoped it would make the Infrastructure Australia shortlist, making it more likely to gain funding. "It it does make the shortlist then we go back and into more detail for the planning," he said. Transport Minister Rachel Nolan said she was pleased with the project's progress.

"The final business case is due to be submitted in the first half of 2010, and we are on track to meet this timeframe," she said. Rail 09 committee chairman Max Barton said more commitment was needed. "My understanding is that the rail infrastructure plan was estimated at $550 million," he said. "We were told that could be funded some time between now and 2025-26. "We need to follow up and put pressure on ... to gain the funding."

[Jon Bryant]

The Redcliffe (Petrie to Kippa Ring) must be linked into the Shorncliffe Line so that it creates a Northern Loop.  Not everybody travels into the CBD.  The Redcliffe Circle Line has a ring to it.

[#Metro]

There is so much undeveloped land on this corridor, it has TOD written all over it.
Same for Shorncliffe and Doomben lines. Lots of spare capacity.

Light rail has its advantages, including optional compatibility with the QR network (would require some modifications), a future underground LRT system that Ms Bligh has indicated and (subject to technical evaluation) travel across existing road bridges.

[ozbob]

Some feedback received, thanks!

When I moved to Queensland more than 20 years ago there was excited talks about the Caboolture train line getting connected to a new train line from the Redcliffe peninsula to Dakabin/Petrie stations.   It seems like that talk often gets resurrected around election time but nothing has happened as yet.  I believe the land for the tracks is there, possibly owned by the state (not sure about that).

During those 20 years or so thousands of houses have been built in the area not only on the Peninsula itself but in surrounding areas (close to the rail line which is not there) e.g. North Lakes at Mango Hill, Castle Hills at Murrumba Downs, Petrie, Kallangur etc etc.  As we know each house means another car or two on the road.  Most of these cars are on the Bruce Highway and Gateway Arterial in the mornings and evenings.  Some drive to Petrie station where parking after 7am is at best difficult. 
It is often standing room only after Petrie station, 40 minutes train trip to the city. Going home the trains 4-6-ish pm are comparable to sardines in a tin.   You have to wait in a queue at Petrie to touch off your go-card, then wait in a queue to drive away from the station.  One day I sat in my car for an hour waiting for someone to come back from work (I assume) and move their car(parked too close in an "unmarked" bay)  so I could get out of a "legal" bay.   Lucky I had a book to read and no small children waiting to be picked up.

And don't get me started on the difficulties at Central station getting on the trains at night, the large number of people on the platforms and the unbearable heat .........

[stephenk]

The Redcliffe (Petrie to Kippa Ring) must be linked into the Shorncliffe Line so that it creates a Northern Loop.  Not everybody travels into the CBD.  The Redcliffe Circle Line has a ring to it.

I think you are dreaming!


Back to reality, if the Petrie to Kippa Ring Line goes ahead, then associated infrastructure to cope with the extra capacity required between Petrie and the City (and beyond) will be required.

[Arnz]

The Redcliffe (Petrie to Kippa Ring) must be linked into the Shorncliffe Line so that it creates a Northern Loop.  Not everybody travels into the CBD.  The Redcliffe Circle Line has a ring to it.

I think you are dreaming!


Back to reality, if the Petrie to Kippa Ring Line goes ahead, then associated infrastructure to cope with the extra capacity required between Petrie and the City (and beyond) will be required.

Which would require the third line and Bridge between Lawnton and Petrie, followed by extra stabling at Petrie or the Kippa Ring (Mango Hill?) spur.  The triplication between Northgate and Lawnton is not at capacity, yet not underutilised either.

[O_128]

surely two lanes on the new hornibrook bridge could be spared for rail?

if the line is ever built a two tier timetable would make sense express trains to petrie then continuing to caboolture/nambour then all stoppers to kippa ring

[Jon Bryant]

Stephenk, is that back to the reality where over 80% of all trips are made by car and is totally unsustainable socially, economically and environmentally?  No Thanks. Remember 50% of all trips are local. It is a long trip if you want to go from Redcliffe to Shorncliffe.  We need to have visionary thinking not just tinkering with a grossly inadequate sytem.

[Emmie]

Whatever happened to the claim that the Petrie-KippaRing-Redcliffe link was 'shovel-ready' and was going to get funding from the Federal Government as part of the stimulus package?

I agree with you Jonno, a northern loop from Shorncliffe / Sandgate to Redcliffe would be a great idea, but I think the state government stuffed that one up when they went ahead with the new bridge as road only - a stupid, stupid mistake.

The advantage is that the Shorncliffe line is under less pressure than the Caboolture /Nambour line, and could handle added traffic (though duplication of the line from Sandgate to Shorncliffe is off in the way distant future).  Plus there's a lot of undeveloped flat land between Deagon and Hayes Inlet - if a rail link followed the route of the Deagon deviation, for instance.  A bit harder to see where it would run on the Redcliffe side, though if a bridge crossed Hayes Inlet further upstream (which would make it a shorter bridge) there's plenty of land available there, too.

[stephenk]

Stephenk, is that back to the reality where over 80% of all trips are made by car and is totally unsustainable socially, economically and environmentally?  No Thanks. Remember 50% of all trips are local. It is a long trip if you want to go from Redcliffe to Shorncliffe.  We need to have visionary thinking not just tinkering with a grossly inadequate sytem.

If a rail line was built from Petrie to Redcliffe, then is the number of people travelling from Shorncliffe/Sandgate to Redcliffe going to justify a railway? No. Frequent buses would be much more cost effective.

If 50% of trips are local, how many of those people will be living within walking distance of a train station? Not a huge number. Thus in our low population density city (semi-rural by European standards), rail is not always the best solution for public transport in some locations.

[Jon Bryant]

If we make the same mistake our current transport planners do and assume that PT could never go over 15-20% and cater for the rest by road then you would be correct.  But if we built a transport system that reversed this then it would easily be justified. The trips are there otherwise the new bridge would not have been needed despite our lower densities.  It is the % of trips that matters.

PS The Redcliffe line should also be built in conjunction with the Trout Road rail line to take the pressure off the main north lines.  No not dreaming just doing the planning this city is missing.   

[O_128]

If we make the same mistake our current transport planners do and assume that PT could never go over 15-20% and cater for the rest by road then you would be correct.  But if we built a transport system that reversed this then it would easily be justified. The trips are there otherwise the new bridge would not have been needed despite our lower densities.  It is the % of trips that matters.

PS The Redcliffe line should also be built in conjunction with the Trout Road rail line to take the pressure off the main north lines.  No not dreaming just doing the planning this city is missing.   

i agree though the current mentality appears to be just connect it all to the main line

[O_128]

What really annoys me is there is 315 million to build the new hornibrook highway bridge yet nothing is done for the line. Further more the varsity extension cost 400million yet this bridge cost 315 million how is that possible. It is obvious there is some serious price inflation involved in railway construction

[#Metro]

If 50% of trips are local, how many of those people will be living within walking distance of a train station? Not a huge number. Thus in our low population density city (semi-rural by European standards), rail is not always the best solution for public transport in some locations.

Hmm. On one hand you do not want to build a rail line through an empty paddock in the hope that someday (perhaps 150 years later) someone will want to use it. That is a waste. On the other hand, if you wait until there is a problem it might be harder to correct.

This line is somewhere in between. In any project the government will consider who uses it- implicitly, how many people (population) will live near it. This is in keeping with finances and the principle of maximizing benefits for the greatest number of people.*

The land in this area will come under increased pressure to be developed as established suburbs in around the CBD put up the "Go away!" sign. Also, that area has a grid pattern to it- perfect for a second CBD (apologies to anyone living there already, must be horrified reading that line!) and high density.

I would agree with building the line if it were bundled with a high density core in the Redcliffe area (yes I am talking skyscrapers here) surrounded by densification.

It is obvious there is some serious price inflation involved in railway construction.

Does anyone know what the rough breakdown of labour/materials/regulations/fees & taxes are for a railway?

*Or neatly put, the same reason why we don't build a Maglev to Doomben.

[ozbob]

I understand there is a request to the Feds for funding for this line.  Now known as the Moreton Bay rail link ..

[ozbob]

From the Caboolture Shire Herald 6th April 2010 page 4

Mayor's pitch for train project Sutherland confident of funding for rail link

Mayor's pitch for train project Sutherland confident of funding for rail link

By GLENN ROBERTS

THE announcement of a new multibillion-dollar cross river rail link has not shaken Moreton Bay Mayor Allan Sutherland's confidence in his council's bid to have the Petrie to Kippa-Ring railway given the green light this year. Councillor Sutherland said the 19km Salisbury to Wooloowin line, which the State Government declared a project of state significance last week, would have "zero" impact on the Petrie to Kippa-Ring bid, despite the new project possibly soaking up $14 billion by 2016.

"They're two different submissions. One's no relation to the other," he said. In early February, the council and the State Government lodged a joint submission with Infrastructure Australia for funding to have the Petrie to Kippa-Ring line built.

It is now a matter of waiting for IA to make its recommendations to Federal Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese and for the Federal Government to decide which projects it will fund. The federal budget and the 2010 election campaign present two possible opportunities for the Federal Government to make an announcement, if the bid is accepted.

The details of the bid are confidential but Cr Sutherland described it as "powerful" and "impressive", and said the project was "more feasible than it ever has been".

In August 2009 the council and State Government signed a memorandum of understanding and committed up to $2 million each to prepare a detailed submission. An encouraging sign was IA's decision last year to commit $365 million to the $1.7 billion Gold Coast rapid transit project.

The State Government pledged $464 million and the Gold Coast City Council will contribute $105 million. Cr Sutherland said IA "looked favourably" on multi-level funding models in which state and local governments contributed funds.

"Any further funding contribution by council will be dependant on state and federal government contributions," he said.

A key element of the MBRC-State Government submission is understood to be the impact the railway would have on the region's growing traffic congestion.

Each full train would take 6km of traffic off the roads, meaning the line would also benefit people not using the line.

Robert Dow of lobby group Rail Back on Track said if the Salisbury to Wooloowin line was built by 2016 the extra rail capacity would have an immediate flow-on effect to Pine Rivers.

"In a nutshell what it means is increased frequency of trains through Pine Rivers and it also supports the case for building the rail line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring," Mr Dow said.

Cr Sutherland said modelling showed the existing network had enough capacity to cope with the extra trains generated by the Petrie to Kippa-Ring link.

State Transport Minister Rachel Nolan's office did not respond to questions.

[somebody]

The most useful part of this line is the bit to Mango Hill.  The bit from there to Kippa-Ring is debateable as to whether it's better than buses along the Houghton Highway.  Would only building half the line save 40% of the project cost or only 10%?

[ozbob]

From the Courier Mail click here!

Healthy growth for Queensland as new home buyers flock to city fringes

Healthy growth for Queensland as new home buyers flock to city fringes

    * Melissa Ketchell
    * From: The Courier-Mail
    * June 07, 2010 11:00PM

QUEENSLAND'S housing price growth is lagging behind Victoria and NSW, but the Griffin-Mango Hill area on the city's northern outskirts is still one of the fastest growing regions, ranking third in the country.

The Housing Industry of Australia's latest report into hot spots for the year ending June 2009 found the area - which includes new estates like Freshwater and smaller subdivisions - recorded a 12.8 per cent population growth rate, with $149 million worth of new housing construction approved.

North Queensland's Condon-Rasmussen region was the ninth fastest growing region in the nation, followed by the Central Pine West area of Pine Rivers Shire, north of Brisbane, which recorded a 7.8 per cent population growth rate.

Victoria and NSW led the new population and housing growth, but HIA economist Harley Dale said the industry had been struggling. Over the year there was a fall of almost 20 per cent in housing starts with NSW, Queensland and WA the worst hit. Total renovation investment also fell to a national total of $31.2 billion.

The HIA expects Queensland will see more widespread growth this financial year. But Mr Dale said the recovery in Queensland would be very mild compared with other states.

"Queensland had a horrendous year last year in terms of new building and the recovery there will be quite modest," he said. "There are still concerns if it can be sustained there."

Mr Dale said measures like the newly introduced $4000 grant for regional first-time buyers were important.

"It's good to have something targeted at first-home buyers in regional areas," he said.

Mark and Stacey Kearney have become some of Mango Hill's newest residents, joining the push into the suburb.

The couple bought their block in December and now the house of their dreams is just two weeks from being completed.

"We really just liked the layout of the area, there are lots of young families and there's plenty of space for the kids to play," Ms Kearney said.

Blog comment:

All the more reasons for the Petri to Kippa Ring railway. The fact is the outer fringes (notably public transport poor therefore traps, particularly when fuel prices impact) are the only avoidable houses left for the masses ...

[somebody]

if the Petrie to Kippa Ring Line goes ahead, then associated infrastructure to cope with the extra capacity required between Petrie and the City (and beyond) will be required.

Can't believe I didn't respond to this before!

Actually isn't there quite a bit of extra capacity for the CBD to service more trains from the north in peak?  It's the Merivale bridge which is the main constraint, and that's not relevant to a Kippa-Ring line.

[stephenk]

if the Petrie to Kippa Ring Line goes ahead, then associated infrastructure to cope with the extra capacity required between Petrie and the City (and beyond) will be required.

Can't believe I didn't respond to this before!

Actually isn't there quite a bit of extra capacity for the CBD to service more trains from the north in peak?  It's the Merivale bridge which is the main constraint, and that's not relevant to a Kippa-Ring line.

Given that the ICRCS 2014 estimated service requirement from the north is 39tph, and the 2021 estimated service requirement from the north is 52tph, then considerable infrastructure would be required from the north anyway. These figures are excluding extra services from Kippa-Ring.

The ICRCS recommends a 3rd track between Lawnton and Petrie in 2012, and a 5th track between Bowen Hills and Northgate in 2015. Again, both of these requirements are excluding the consideration of the Kippa-Ring line.

Edit: The maximum track capacity from the North is 44tph, thus services from the north would require the 1st CRR tunnel  sometime between 2014 and 2021.

[somebody]

Ok, but what do you reckon the chances that in 2014, QR are running the numbers of trains from the north that the ICRCS recommend?

[Emmie]

There are a lot of level crossings on the northern line, some of them very busy (e.g. Linkfield Rd and Beams Rd) - something will have to be done about those, if train frequency rises much above current levels.

[stephenk]

Ok, but what do you reckon the chances that in 2014, QR are running the numbers of trains from the north that the ICRCS recommend?

Not likely, as more infrastructure and/or services are required to attract more people to use rail. As Translink are adding little in the way of new services, then I would expect growth and thus demand to be less than expected. It's a bit of a vicious cycle!

[kw]

Even this EMU agrees with a line to Kippa Ring. 

http://www.railpictures.net/viewphoto.php?id=327990

- Kent

[#Metro]

Does anyone have links for the consultant's reports on this project.
Can't seem to find them. Maybe they have been taken down?

[Golliwog]

Never saw the report, but I have seen what I believe were the final plans for it. What I saw was a road/rail combo with bus priority on the road. Dual track line running parallel to the road.

[ozbob]

From North Lakes Times 16th June 2010 page 3

Push for rail link

Push for rail link

THE Mango Hill Progress Association is hoping Mango Hill and Griffin's status as the third fastest growing hot spot in Australia will prompt the Federal or State Government to fund the Petrie to Kippa-Ring rail link.

The Housing Industry Association's Population and Residential Building Hotspots report, released last week, shows the area is the fastest growing in Queensland and third fastest growing in Australia, with a population of 149,930 and an annual population growth rate of 12.8 per cent.

Mango Hill Progress Association president Laurence Christie said the news demonstrated the need for a rail link.

"The Mango Hill, Griffin and North Lakes areas are expanding rapidly," Mr Christie said.

"We've had a lot of discussion about the infrastructure needs, particularly public transport," he said.

"It's another reason why our Federal/State Government should fund the rail project.

"It is hoped that Infrastructure Australia will recommend this project to the minister this year - this is the year for this to happen." Mango Hill and Griffin was the only Statistical Local Area in Queensland to register double-digit population growth in 2008-09.

In the same period, it also recorded 5.4 per cent growth in the value of residential building work approved, taking approvals to a total value of $150 million.

Moreton Bay Regional Council Mayor Allan Sutherland said the report further justified the need for a rail link from Petrie to Kippa-Ring.

"With population growth comes traffic congestion and it's no secret that Mango Hill and Griffin, as the nation's third hot spot, are also among the most carreliant suburbs on the continent," Cr Sutherland said.

"Heavy rail servicing these boom suburbs will deliver real public transport solutions and reduce the congestion issues on our major arterial roads," he said.

[colinw]

Kippa-Ring has now appeared in the master SEQIP map.  The original version of this map didn't have it.

http://www.queenslandrail.com.au/NetworkServices/SEQIP/Pages/introduction.aspx



cheers,
Colin

[ozbob]

From the Northern Times Caboolture 9th July 2010 page 3

Time for the line

[#Metro]

Not again. This happens every election time.
The pollies come out, promises galore, and then when the votes are all counted up, thank you very much, we need to do another study that will take ages and ages, or the study tells us that rail is not viable at this time, or let's postpone this until the time is "right" (whenever that is).

The best delay tactic I have seen so far was the "random telephone survey" where people were randomly called up and asked if they often go to Petrie. Of course, most said no, as they would because there is no way to go there using public transport and such trips are latent or suppressed trips.

Its a bit like ringing someone over the other side of a river with no bridge across, and asking them how many times they make it to the other side.

Zero, of course.

[colinw]

After so many false starts I can understand the cynicism. Still, it is better than it vanishing off the infrastructure roadmap entirely, and recent progress on Springfield can give us some confidence that the Government hasn't given up on constructing extensions to the system entirely.

In my opinion, better to stay positive and try to keep pressure on for it to occur.  If we resort to negativity and lower expectations then we are effectively letting the Government off the hook.

[somebody]

After so many false starts I can understand the cynicism. Still, it is better than it vanishing off the infrastructure roadmap entirely, and recent progress on Springfield can give us some confidence that the Government hasn't given up on constructing extensions to the system entirely.

In my opinion, better to stay positive and try to keep pressure on for it to occur.  If we resort to negativity and lower expectations then we are effectively letting the Government off the hook.

Well put.  But perhaps we should get the Springfield line constructed with all the stations first.  Once that is done, then there may be a good case for the Kippa-Ring line

[ozbob]

Hear hear Colin!  We will never give up!  ;-)

I am optimistic about Petri - Kippa Ring, it will be needed.

[#Metro]

Just curious, what are the buses out there like?
There may be space for an interim BRT solution while you wait for a rail line to be constructed.

Edit: Route 680 does not seem very frequent (every half an hour) and passes or goes near five perfectly good railway stations (Petrie, Lawnton, Bray Park, Strathpine and Bald Hills) to terminate at Chermside bus interchange. (NB: it does interchange at Petrie and Bald Hills)

What do people think about upgrading this to a BUZ style service while the rail line is still coming?
http://www.translink.com.au/tt_results.php?submit=search&route=680

[somebody]

I don't mind the Chermside service of the 680.  Chermside shops is a reasonably important destination, and it can also pick up people between Petrie and Chermside.  Citybound pax can use the train from Petrie although off peak it would probably be better to change for a second bus at Chermside.

[#Metro]

I don't really know about this bus.
Some questions:

Why does it serve three westfield's shoppingtowns; incidentally, the closest Westfield (North Lakes) being the one not served except in the off-peak? (This is strange IMHO, you could just go via North Lakes Westfield and cut the other two out)

Why feed Chermside bus interchange and have a bus-bus transfer (which attracts one of the highest transfer/interchange time penalties)
when it could just terminate at Petrie, and other, separate, cross-town feeder routes could extend from the other rail stations, as branches, to connect Strathpine and Chermside?

Just some ideas to think about. BRT might be a good option while the train line is being built/planned.

[Derwan]

Several bus services from Redcliffe interchange with rail at Sandgate station.

The problem with this is that it's the Shorncliffe line!

[colinw]

Warning, long post including off topic kite flying :-)

Hear hear Colin!  We will never give up!  ;-)

I am optimistic about Petri - Kippa Ring, it will be needed.

Absolutely.  I am an eternal optimist of the "never say never" variety.

I am furthermore of the opinion that the decision to proceed with Springfield strengthens the case for Petrie to Kippa-Ring.  We cannot simultaneously decide to build a line to a major development area that - at present - has far fewer residents than Mango Hill + Rothwell + Redcliffe and then at the same time argue that the P-KR line is not justified.  It also does not make sense to fail to deliver P-KR having spent a fortune quadrupling the line to Northgate, then tripling to Lawnton (and eventually Petrie) - why amplify the track to the junction of a proposed branch line, then fail to build the branch?.  Cross River Rail will strengthen the case further.

Regarding Somebody's post, I'm agreeable to the concept of one major project at a time, to completion, rather than lots of expensive little stop-start additions.  If there is one thing I dislike, it is dribbly little projects like Robina to Varsity Lakes, which carry a huge overhead (and thus have a very high per km cost) compared to building a longer section.  Compare the cost efficiency of the Perth to Mandurah "big bang build" compared to the piecemeal construction and upgrading of the Gold Coast line over nearly two decades.  I would in fact be quite contented to see the GC line stick at Varsity Lakes until such time as the light rail down there is done, and the funding & will exists to put the whole thing through to Coolangatta in one project.

IMHO the rough order of priorities for SEQ should be as follows.  (Note that much of this is not too different to SEQIP, of which I am broadly supportive).

1. To 2013 Finish current committed projects. Springfield (complete with Ellen Grove & Springfield Lakes), electrify 4th road Darra - Corinda and build the 4th platform at Oxley, finish Keperra to Ferny Grove & boost FG line frequencies to minimum 3tph / 20 minutes full time. (FG is logical next line for better than 2tph off peak).
2.  By 2016 Cross River Rail + Salisbury quad.  (Key to what comes after, but we need that capacity before we start adding too many new lines to the system).  System wide timetable redesign and general move to 4tph minimum service standard (2tph on the off peak interurbans).
3. Concurrent to 2016 - roll out Gold Coast Light Rail including Stage 2 to Helensvale station.
4. Starting in 2015 to completion in  2018. Petrie to Kippa-Ring including 3rd road Lawnton to Petrie.
5. By 2015 complete NCL duplication to Landsborough, then around 2018 get a start on CAMCOS as far as at least Caloundra in the first stage, and Double Track from opening around 2020.  No more short sighted single track builds like Ormeau to Robina please! Maroochydore by 2023 or so.
6. Beyond 2016 progressively extend Gold Coast Light Rail down coast to Tweed Heads.
7. By 2020 or so we should have duplicated Coomera to Helensvale, and be well on the way with the single project to extend Varsity lakes to Coolangatta, in time to integrate with light rail at Coolangatta some time in the early 2020s.
8. By 2023 or so, adding Petrie to Kippa-Ring & CAMCOS will have somewhat unbalanced the system in favour of the north side, so it will be time to consider an additional south side line - I would suggest that by 2023 it will be time to start planning the separate 3'6" commuter line down the interstate corridor.  Initially to Browns Plains / Greenbank around 2025, but ultimately to Flagstone around 2028 - 2030.

Other needs, but not sure where to fit into the sequence.  Some of these are smaller projects that could fit in anywhere in the time line.

- Sandgate to Shorncliffe duplication & terminus works to allow more frequent service.  Could be done any time.
- Cleveland line upgrades (partial or full duplication beyond Manly).  What about additional track Park Rd - Manly?  When needed?
- Beyond Springfield to Ripley & Ipswich - I have no idea when this will be needed?
- Beyond 2025 or so - the 2nd underground line (my preference is from Indooroopilly via UQ & West end).  I am also unsure as to whether this should join through to north, or would be better off going east and shortcutting the very indirect Cleveland line. Although this is probably not worth doing for Cleveland line traffic alone, but would be very good indeed if a spur line to Capalaba was considered at some stage.
- What else?  Junction upgrades (Yeerongpilly?).
- Landsborough - Nambour duplication - when?  Needed once CAMCOS is built?

Very long term and kite flying - well beyond 2030 :-

- Any point going beyond FG to Samford?  Not sure - maybe bus is all this will ever need.
- Once we have an underground from Toowong (or better, Indooroopilly), is there any sense extending that tunnel west towards Kenmore?
- Trouts Road corridor?
- What will be needed to serve the Yarrabilba development?  Buses, or some re-use of Bethania - Logan Village?
- Any point extending the Caboolture suburbans a station or two down the old Wamuran branch, to better service western Caboolture and alleviate the car parking crush at Caboolture?
- Timing for extending 3rd line beyond Kuraby towards Loganlea & Beenleigh?
- Triple or Quad beyond Darra toward Redbank & Ipswich - when? (Or is it better to build the Southern Freight Rail Corridor & get the coalies, etc. off the Ipswich line entirely).
- Beaudesert spur off the Flagstone line - necessary when, or at all?
- What about electrifying beyond Rosewood to Laidley / Gatton & introducing true interurban service out west?  When, if ever?  And the new Toowoomba range crossing?
- What future for the Doomben line?  Light rail conversion, or duplication & extension to Hamilton North Shore?
- What else?  Inner city light rail, or metro?  I suspect by the time most of what I talk about above comes to pass that will be about it for suburban rail in Greater Brisbane, and it will be time to make the step change to a metro for the dense inner parts.

cheers,
Colin