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Author Topic: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour  (Read 255024 times)

Offline Stillwater

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #80 on: January 31, 2012, 11:47:47 AM »
Yes, Explorer, lol.  I don't have a problem with shuttles, provided each shuttle is met by a continuing service, minimising dead waiting.

Offline petey3801

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #81 on: January 31, 2012, 02:35:07 PM »
Divisions in service already happen currently. There is at least one that divides at Beenleigh in the morning peak.. 6-cars travel to Beenleigh, split on the platform, 3-cars to the middle road with the other 3-car set to form the next service, once that has departed, the other 3-car comes back from the dead end to form a service.

Quote
apparently current practice is that an electrical fitter be present when sets are amalgamater to go into service

First i've heard of that one, and i've amalgamated many a train in the yard.. But yes, amalgamations in service (at this point in time) aren't really welcomed by the higher-ups...
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Offline HappyTrainGuy

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #82 on: January 31, 2012, 03:18:54 PM »
Pretty sure Doomben still might do it too. They used to have 2x 6 car services run out that way in morning peak but the manual safeworkings were deemed unsafe to use two platforms back in 09 so they just ran 1x 6 car set and split it for two services.

somebody

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #83 on: January 31, 2012, 03:40:41 PM »
Pretty sure Doomben still might do it too. They used to have 2x 6 car services run out that way in morning peak but the manual safeworkings were deemed unsafe to use two platforms back in 09 so they just ran 1x 6 car set and split it for two services.
Hmm, if they could operate the points, that would be an interesting way of getting a 15 minute service for 1 hour in peak, peak direction only.

Offline petey3801

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #84 on: January 31, 2012, 04:57:20 PM »
Both platforms at Doomben are used in the morning peak, the first train to Doomben uses platform 2 (and sits there for almost an hour before heading back to the city) while another train arrives and departs platform 1. The station master manually operates the points into P2.

That's not saying units don't still split down there, though..
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Offline HappyTrainGuy

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #85 on: January 31, 2012, 06:00:17 PM »
Sorry, my mistake. Double checked and it was a temporary issue in late 2009 that resulted in QRNetowrk not allowing the station master to operate the manual points into P2.

« Last Edit: January 31, 2012, 06:05:33 PM by HappyTrainGuy »

Offline ozbob

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #86 on: February 03, 2012, 03:17:27 AM »
Originally posted by Fares_Fair  http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=7602.0

Article: Commuters set to flex muscles
Maroochy Journal, p10
Friday February 3, 2012
by Sherine Conyers

Half baked projects, have long term consequences ...
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Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #87 on: February 26, 2012, 03:58:04 PM »
Met with a Federal MP last week to request a meeting with a Federal Minister.
Meeting successful, request for meeting will be made.


Regards,
Fares_Fair.
Regards,
Fares_Fair


Offline Stillwater

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #88 on: February 26, 2012, 04:28:33 PM »
The pressure should be on state LNP members, who will form government if the opinion polls are correct.  It will be interesting to see whether the e-petitions that local members on the Sunshine Coast have sponsored in the past will continue to be presented to an LNP minister for transport.  Will Sunny Coast MP's continue to go on TV demanding that a government of which they are a member should 'fix the Sunshine Coast line now'?  Or will all go quiet?

Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #89 on: February 27, 2012, 02:43:37 PM »
I am optimistic about an outcome...
John Connolly, the blue candidate for Nicklin, was quoted in the Courier-Mail last week as saying that the rail travel from Sunshine Coast to Brisbane should take about an hour; "since it can be done in other countries, why not here?" he is reported as saying.

This project is the single, largest, most important project for the Sunshine Coast.
It has positive benefits for tourism and regular commuters.

But the greatest benefits are for freight.
One of the positive economic benefits for freight e.g., a 1500m freight train = 100 semi-trailers off the Bruce Highway.  :-t

This snowballs to provide economic benefits for road pavements - all the more important, and noticeable now after the tremendous rainfall of late.  :-t

It allows the major food chains up north to have more reliable food supplies, currently strangled by the Beerburrum bottleneck.  :-t
A special freight window was created in the middle of the Caboolture-Beerburrum rail commissioning to prevent food shortages up north.

There are many more ...

Regards,
Fares_Fair.

Regards,
Fares_Fair


Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #90 on: February 29, 2012, 09:04:13 PM »
Rail duplication from Beerburrum to Nambour makes RACQ's list of priorities for the Sunshine Coast   :-t

On 6 December, 2011 Transport Minister Annastacia Palaszczuk MP, Minister for Transport and Multicultural Affairs describes Beerburrum to Nambour upgrade as "strategic to the region."
« Last Edit: February 29, 2012, 09:26:49 PM by Fares_Fair »
Regards,
Fares_Fair


Offline Stillwater

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #91 on: February 29, 2012, 11:17:49 PM »
Oh nice.  Where was the Minister quoted as saying this, FF?  It would be good to have the reference source.

Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #92 on: March 01, 2012, 08:34:32 AM »
The correspondence I received on 6 December 2011, in response to my meeting with her on 30 August, 2011.

I quote verbatim;

"While upgrades to the Beerburum to Nambour section are identified as strategic projects for the Sunshine Coast region, the timeframe for the delivery of these upgrades must be assessed within the priorities of the broader transport program and a limited funding environment as the State Government invests in a major reconstruction program following the recent natural disasters."


It should be noted that work ceased on these projects in April 2009, long before the recent natural disasters.

Regards,
Fares_Fair.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2012, 01:03:50 PM by Fares_Fair »
Regards,
Fares_Fair


Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #93 on: March 05, 2012, 10:14:58 AM »
I contacted the Department of Defence in July 2011 asking if they had any plans or requirements for the North Coast Line.
I can confirm for the record here, via email correspondence, that the Department of Defence have no plans for the North Coast rail line.


July 2011

Our office is unable to assist you with your enquiry.
I have received advice from Defence Support Group and the Directorate of Infrastructure Business Support that they are unable to provide any assistance with your enquiry as Defence do not have any plans in relation to the North Coast Rail Line in support of Defence activities.


It would be interesting to know if there was a reason for this, since rail was a major mover of both men and materiel during wartime.
Perhaps it's because of the single line track.
Bear in mind that any threat is currently perceived as coming fom the north to north west of Australia, however a sneak attack over the south pole is not out of the question.

Regards,
Fares_Fair.
Regards,
Fares_Fair


somebody

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #94 on: March 05, 2012, 10:50:28 AM »
I contacted the Department of Defence in July 2011 asking if they had any plans or requirements for the North Coast Line.
I can confirm for the record here, via email correspondence, that the Department of Defence have no plans for the North Coast rail line.


July 2011

Our office is unable to assist you with your enquiry.
I have received advice from Defence Support Group and the Directorate of Infrastructure Business Support that they are unable to provide any assistance with your enquiry as Defence do not have any plans in relation to the North Coast Rail Line in support of Defence activities.


It would be interesting to know if there was a reason for this, since rail was a major mover of both men and materiel during wartime.
Perhaps it's because of the single line track.
Bear in mind that any threat is currently perceived as coming fom the north to north west of Australia, however a sneak attack over the south pole is not out of the question.

Regards,
Fares_Fair.
Can't imagine rail being very relevant in warfare in these times.  WWII?  Still was on the eastern front.  In Vietnam or even Korea I don't know that it was all that relevant.

Offline Stillwater

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #95 on: March 05, 2012, 10:56:12 AM »

Perhaps they still hold faith in the 'Brisbane Line' plan from World War II -- evacuate the population from Northern Australia (how is not clear - by rail?) to a point south and east of a line drawn from Brisbane to Adelaide, and then defend that line.

Online SurfRail

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #96 on: March 05, 2012, 11:28:32 AM »
Australia's defence posture is not based on the defence of Australia, but in better diplomacy with our neighbours and active involvement in international affairs.

All the heavy materiel is generally based in the north of the country anyway, or can be shipped up by rail to Darwin.  Anything else can fly up (fighters, transports, refuellers, helicopters etc) or be flown up (mainly troops and their equipment and supplies). 

I sincerely doubt the NCL or any QR rollingstock would cope with an M1 Abrams main battle tank!
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Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #97 on: March 05, 2012, 11:36:26 AM »
Australia's defence posture is not based on the defence of Australia, but in better diplomacy with our neighbours and active involvement in international affairs.

All the heavy materiel is generally based in the north of the country anyway, or can be shipped up by rail to Darwin.  Anything else can fly up (fighters, transports, refuellers, helicopters etc) or be flown up (mainly troops and their equipment and supplies).  

I sincerely doubt the NCL or any QR rollingstock would cope with an M1 Abrams main battle tank!

Defence posture is one thing and certainly important, but at the end of the day it's our literal land defence that matters.
We are a very resource rich and mostly unpopulated nation in the midst of land challenged nations.

Sounds like very bad planning to me if that is the case.
Redundancy is paramount, we do not have enough aircraft to move a complete fighting force to the north in a short period of time.. or heaven forbid, get them back in a suitably organised withdrawal.
A threat from the north to north west would make the NCL the better option than through to Darwin.
All hypothetical of course.
Regards,
Fares_Fair.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2012, 02:58:53 PM by Fares_Fair »
Regards,
Fares_Fair


Online SurfRail

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #98 on: March 05, 2012, 12:02:46 PM »
I'm very happy with our detection, anti-shipping and anti-air capabilities - JORN, Harpoon missiles, submarines, new AEW aircraft, plus longer range air-to-air missiles on our fighters and longer range surface to air missiles on our warships coming shortly. 

I doubt anybody has the ability to project force into Australia without us knowing about it weeks and weeks in advance, and we and our local allies (like Singapore) would be able to repel most of the combined tonnage of amphibious assault vessels in the entire Pacific (excluding the USN) with our current arsenal.  There are massive supply line vulnerabilities as well - everything would have to be flown or shipped in because there is little in the way of forage or agriculture up that way, leaving anybody who wants in vulnerable to persistent attacks from sea and air.

It is surprising just how few troops any country can deploy at once and how slow the build-up takes.  The days when a taskforce would just show up and disgorge hundreds of thousands of troops and thousands of armored vehicles are long gone, and even if they were here we would spot it in a flash thanks to our buddies in the US and their orbiting toys.  (They have a vested interest in a free Australia as a trading partner, a staging area and a host to several US facilities.)

I think the only significant use of the NCL in a time of war would be as a supply corridor and as a secondary evacuation route - but frankly, it is so vulnerable to attack (no defences, no secondary routes) I doubt it figures into ADF strategy as something to rely on.

The big issue for us is personnel numbers. 
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Offline Stillwater

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #99 on: March 05, 2012, 12:57:42 PM »
Perhaps we should have another round of asset sell-offs..... sell the SCL to the most likely invading power, have them do it up so it will be in optimum shape when they eventually invade and defeat us, but we enjoy the investment in new track in the meantime!   :-r  :-r  :hg

Offline ozbob

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #100 on: March 05, 2012, 01:06:06 PM »
The entire rail network is an important logistic asset in the strategic sense.

Particularly in times of national security demands, fuel may be very short.

Unfortunately the cone of silence has just descended on this poster .....   
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somebody

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #101 on: March 05, 2012, 01:11:23 PM »
longer range air-to-air missiles on our fighters
You mean the AMRAAM, or something else?

Online SurfRail

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #102 on: March 05, 2012, 01:25:46 PM »
longer range air-to-air missiles on our fighters
You mean the AMRAAM, or something else?

Upgraded variants (C5 and beyond I think).
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Offline HappyTrainGuy

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #103 on: March 05, 2012, 01:33:38 PM »
ICBMs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  :D :D :D

Rail to them isn't even an option anymore as they are more advanced so to speak. Those C17 Globemasters that the RAAF now have makes rail pointless to them. They can carry about 75,000KG (depending on its cargo config) with a range of about 5000km with the ability to refuel inflight from KC-30s which are Airbus A330's converted to refueling/passenger/cargo transport planes all of which along with all of Australias FA-18 Super Hornets (different capabilities over the FA-18 Hornets at other bases) and soon to be F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters are located and based out of Amberley.

Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #104 on: March 05, 2012, 03:22:40 PM »
Favourite quote ...

“One 1500 metre freight train can carry the load of 100 semi-trailers, leaving our roads safer and our air cleaner.”
Quote by: The Hon Anthony Albanese MP, Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, 2011.
Minister’s introduction, p1.
Source: http://www.minister.infrastructure.gov.au/aa/releases/2011/May/SecondAnniversaryofEconomicStimulusPlan.pdf
 
      
Herein lies a key to unlock the Sunshine Coast rail fail.

Regards,
Fares_Fair.
Regards,
Fares_Fair


Offline Golliwog

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #105 on: March 05, 2012, 03:30:02 PM »
Fares Fair, just out of curiosity, what carries more for the economy, the Bruce Highway or the NCL? I would have assumed the NCL, though Mr Newman is saying the highway is very important economically for Nth QLD so needs to be upgraded.
There is no silver bullet… but there is silver buckshot.
Never argue with an idiot. They'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #106 on: March 05, 2012, 03:34:49 PM »
Fares Fair, just out of curiosity, what carries more for the economy, the Bruce Highway or the NCL? I would have assumed the NCL, though Mr Newman is saying the highway is very important economically for Nth QLD so needs to be upgraded.

All I have is this Golli,
I have no information on the highway data.
Point 10 in my opening post report.

If it is less than road then that is only because they Have allowed it to occur by not investing in the rail.

QR Submission to Productivity Commission
by QR Limited (5 July 2006),
Review of the Economic Costs of Freight Infrastructure and Efficient Approaches to Transport Pricing
http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/48577/sub053.pdf


North Coast Line Study, p94,
This analysis includes an estimate of the future transport task (based on underlying market growth rate estimates) in the corridor and identification of the economic benefits for government and society associated with investment in rail …

Note: Figures below refer to North Coast Line from Brisbane to Cairns and are $2006.
An investment of circa. $300 million in a number of “below rail” projects on the NCL could result in: (note present value PV = 2006 dollars)

   Extraction of just over 850,000 tonnes of general freight / containerised traffic from road to rail on NCL markets.
   Road accident cost savings of Present Value $43 million over 20 years.
   Environmental gains valued at PV $23 million over 20 years.
   Road pavement / maintenance savings of PV $94 million over 20 years from reduced heavy truck movements.
   Benefits associated with better transit times, improved service reliability and improved service availability valued at PV $127 million over 20 years.
   Benefits to rail operators and customers valued at PV $143 million over 20 years.
   Potential reductions in rail freight costs in the range of 2% to 6% across NCL markets if gains to “above rail” operators are passed on to customers.
   An increase in GTKs (gross tonne kilometres) on the NCL associated with additional containerised traffic of 34% ‘over and above’ underlying growth.

The figures shown above total $430m (in 2006 dollars) in potential savings, for a $300m (in 2006 dollars) outlay.

Non-Bulk Freight Growth, p107,
From Table A.3 Rail and Road expected average annual growth rates, 1999 to 2025.
 
Corridor             By Rail   By Road
Sydney - Perth       4.4%    3.0%   HIGHEST FREIGHT GROWTH
Brisbane - Cairns     4.2%    4.0%   SECOND HIGHEST FREIGHT GROWTH

Original Source: BTRE (2006), Demand Projections for Auslink Non-Urban Corridors: Methodology and Projections, Working Paper 66, Table 2.16.

« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 11:13:07 AM by Fares_Fair »
Regards,
Fares_Fair


Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #107 on: March 06, 2012, 01:03:26 PM »
I'm very happy with our detection, anti-shipping and anti-air capabilities - JORN, Harpoon missiles, submarines, new AEW aircraft, plus longer range air-to-air missiles on our fighters and longer range surface to air missiles on our warships coming shortly.  

I doubt anybody has the ability to project force into Australia without us knowing about it weeks and weeks in advance, and we and our local allies (like Singapore) would be able to repel most of the combined tonnage of amphibious assault vessels in the entire Pacific (excluding the USN) with our current arsenal.  There are massive supply line vulnerabilities as well - everything would have to be flown or shipped in because there is little in the way of forage or agriculture up that way, leaving anybody who wants in vulnerable to persistent attacks from sea and air.

It is surprising just how few troops any country can deploy at once and how slow the build-up takes.  The days when a taskforce would just show up and disgorge hundreds of thousands of troops and thousands of armored vehicles are long gone, and even if they were here we would spot it in a flash thanks to our buddies in the US and their orbiting toys.  (They have a vested interest in a free Australia as a trading partner, a staging area and a host to several US facilities.)

I think the only significant use of the NCL in a time of war would be as a supply corridor and as a secondary evacuation route - but frankly, it is so vulnerable to attack (no defences, no secondary routes) I doubt it figures into ADF strategy as something to rely on.

The big issue for us is personnel numbers.  


Hello SR,

The Department of Defence made a submision to the National Land Freight Strategy in April 2011.
http://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/public_submissions/nlfs/files/LF11-068_Department_of_Defence.pdf

Rail does play a part as well.

VICE CHIEF OF THE DEFENCE FORCE GROUP
JOINT LOGISTICS COMMAND

JLC/OUT /20111283
Michael Deegan
Infrastructure Coordinator
Infrastructure Australia
CANBERRA, ACT 260I

Thank you for your letter to Dr Iarr Watt, Secretary of Defence, dated 20 Decermber 2010,
advising of the pending Discussion paper on the National Freight Network strategy. Dr watt
has asked me to respond to you on his behalf.
Defence is strongly supportive of the National Land Freight Strategy) Discussion paper
released by Infrastructure Australia on 22 February 2011.
Defence is currently preparing to undertake a period of deep reform to modernise and
transform our logistics infrastructure network, business processes and procedures and
optimising the use of associated technologies to support Australian Defence Force (ADF)
operatlons.
Defence relies heavily on the national land infrastructure to support operational deployrnents
and to undertake routine training and administrative activities. These tasks regulariy involve
the movement of significant military and commercial freight by road and rail between ADF
bases, into Training Areas and to Points of Embarkation such as ports and air fields.
This also
includes close cooperation with each of the state and territory Road traffic compliancy
agencies to support the operation of Special purpose Military vehicles for operational and
training purposes.
The draft National Land Freight Strategy Discussion paper incorporates approaches which will
support reforms to the effectiveness and efficiency of Defence logistics activities.
Defence is keen to be part of the on going development of the concept and is happy to provide
support to appropriate working groups. My point of contact is Commodore (name removed),
RAN, Director General Strategic Logistics who can be contacted on (number removed).

M.M. STAIB, AM, CSC
Air Vice-Marshal
Commander Joint logistics

6 April 2011
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 02:38:59 PM by Fares_Fair »
Regards,
Fares_Fair


somebody

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #108 on: March 06, 2012, 01:12:53 PM »
Fares Fair, just out of curiosity, what carries more for the economy, the Bruce Highway or the NCL? I would have assumed the NCL, though Mr Newman is saying the highway is very important economically for Nth QLD so needs to be upgraded.
I believe that the NCL only has about 30% of the market.  I think that's the answer to your question.

A lot better than SYD-MEL, MEL-BNE or SYD-BNE which are all around 20% or less, but not as good as SYD/MEL-PER or ADL-DRW which are more like 80% rail market share.

Offline Jonno

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #109 on: March 06, 2012, 02:26:29 PM »
Fares Fair, just out of curiosity, what carries more for the economy, the Bruce Highway or the NCL? I would have assumed the NCL, though Mr Newman is saying the highway is very important economically for Nth QLD so needs to be upgraded.
I believe that the NCL only has about 30% of the market.  I think that's the answer to your question.

A lot better than SYD-MEL, MEL-BNE or SYD-BNE which are all around 20% or less, but not as good as SYD/MEL-PER or ADL-DRW which are more like 80% rail market share.

Just because the least efficient mode of transport currently carrries a greater % of the market, soley due to underfundng of alternatives, does not mean that it should get the priority on investment.  
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 02:44:47 PM by Jonno »

Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #110 on: March 06, 2012, 03:35:44 PM »
Favourite Quote for March:
By The Hon. Anthony Albanese MP, (Federal) Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, member for Grayndler (NSW).
From: Economic Stimulus Plan: A progress report
Nation Building Package 2011
www.nationbuilding.gov.au

"One 1500 metre freight train can carry the load of 100 semi-trailers, leaving our roads safer and our air cleaner."

Regards,
Fares_Fair.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 03:55:51 PM by Fares_Fair »
Regards,
Fares_Fair


achiruel

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #111 on: March 06, 2012, 03:46:45 PM »
So hurry up and fund the Beerburrum-Nambour duplication then Minister!

Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #112 on: March 06, 2012, 04:16:13 PM »
My rationale for Sunshine Coast Line duplication ahead of Cross River Rail

I see a need on the Sunshine Coast, a bottleneck at Beerburrum that is pre-existing and needs fixing now and has impacts upon freight trains and food chains to the north of the state
(it also needs fixing further north of Nambour), and passenger trains - 44% (26 No.) of which are buses during weekdays from Caboolture to Nambour.
Do any of the lines south of the river have these conditions upon them?

Making the single line track able to accommodate 1500m freight trains is sorely needed, and could benefit both passengers and freight.
It is putting semi-trailers onto our roads.

NCL duplication has a BCR of 1.433 according to QR's figures from 2006 Productivity Commission report (greater than CRR's).

Compare that to the need for CRR, a Merivale bridge bottleneck for which a fix is not needed until 2016.
That's not negating the need for CRR, but puts it into perspective IMHO.

Lets face the fact that post CRR, it will not do anything much for the Sunshine Coast Line until it's bottleneck is addressed.

Simple really.



Regards,
Fares_Fair.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 04:32:34 PM by Fares_Fair »
Regards,
Fares_Fair


Offline #Metro

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #113 on: March 06, 2012, 04:28:26 PM »
Quote
NCL duplication has a BCR of 1.433 according to QR's figures from 2006 Productivity Commission report (greater than CRR's).

I'm going to disagree (with the justification only) here, on BCR grounds. I will use a hypothetical to demonstrate why:

Which project increases overall welfare (i.e. puts society better off after completion).
I have made up the values.

Option A:
"Public Transport promoting letter to everyone in SEQ"

Cost: $ 70 000
Benefits: $98 000
BCR: $98 000 / $70 000 = 1.4

Option B:
"Core system capacity upgrade project"

Cost: $7 billion
Benefits: $9.8 billion
BCR: 1.4

Assuming we are willing to take on the costs up to the most expensive of projects, and assuming that we can only build one or the other and not both,
we should build project B, even though its BCR is identical. Why? Project B has higher costs but it also has much higher benefits. When assessed under
NPV (Net present value) project B will have more benefits than project A, and of course it does, it is a core capacity upgrade.

Cost-only analysis: Analysis of costs without comparison or regards to benefits.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 04:35:40 PM by tramtrain »
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Offline #Metro

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #114 on: March 06, 2012, 04:35:59 PM »
Fares_Fair, what was the NPV of the Sunshine Coast line upgrade?
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Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #115 on: March 06, 2012, 04:38:44 PM »
I understand the principle of what you are saying TT,

but what of the benefits of 1500m freight trains as opposed to 650m long ones?
CRR won't allow that for North Quensland and our eastern seaboard, why? there's a bottleneck further up the track.
what of the immediacy for NCL bottleneck removal compared to 2016 deadline for Merivale Street bridge?

CCR, a core capacity upgrade with a Sunshine Coast / NCL bottleneck doesn't assist us in any meaningful way.

@TT, I do not know the NPV for the NCL upgrade.

Regards,
Fares_Fair.
Regards,
Fares_Fair


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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #116 on: March 06, 2012, 04:41:46 PM »
but what of the benefits of 1500m freight trains as opposed to 650m long ones?
Debatable if they are crossing the Merivale Bridge without CRR!

EDIT: Even the Exhibition->Milton path is pretty problematic for these trains without the 5th track.

Offline #Metro

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #117 on: March 06, 2012, 04:48:25 PM »
Quote
I understand the principle of what you are saying TT,

but what of the benefits of 1500m freight trains as opposed to 650m long ones?
CRR won't allow that for North Quensland and our eastern seaboard, why? there's a bottleneck further up the track.
what of the immediacy for NCL bottleneck removal compared to 2016 deadline for Merivale Street bridge?

CCR, a core capacity upgrade with a Sunshine Coast / NCL bottleneck doesn't assist us in any meaningful way.

@TT, I do not know the NPV for the NCL upgrade.

Allow me to frame the question in a different way.
Suppose you have a red pin and a map of the rail network. The red pin represents a bottleneck.
You have to place the pin somewhere, BUT  you have a choice of placing the pin in one of two locations - on the Merivale Bridge or
on the Sunshine Coast line.

Which bottleneck is worse - one located pretty much next to the core or one located on the SC line?

In this case we are deciding not which option is better, but which option is least worst.

None of this is to say CRR is a higher priority than NCL or vice-versa,  but I think we have to choose.
NPV will shed light on the situation. The benefits of CRR are around $9 billion. The NCL upgrade would have to generate
at least $9 billion worth of benefits to be a higher priority than the NCL in my opinion.
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Offline Fares_Fair

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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #118 on: March 06, 2012, 04:50:18 PM »
You are ignoring the timing issue, the red pin near the core won't happen until 2016, the red pin on the NCL is there now.

Not sure how to find out the NPV for the NCL.
I'd also be interested to see the breakdown of the $9 billion NPV for CRR.
Regards,
Fares_Fair


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Re: The Sunshine Coast Case : Rail duplication Beerburrum to Nambour
« Reply #119 on: March 06, 2012, 05:00:02 PM »
Quote
I understand the principle of what you are saying TT,

but what of the benefits of 1500m freight trains as opposed to 650m long ones?
CRR won't allow that for North Quensland and our eastern seaboard, why? there's a bottleneck further up the track.
what of the immediacy for NCL bottleneck removal compared to 2016 deadline for Merivale Street bridge?

CCR, a core capacity upgrade with a Sunshine Coast / NCL bottleneck doesn't assist us in any meaningful way.

@TT, I do not know the NPV for the NCL upgrade.

Allow me to frame the question in a different way.
Suppose you have a red pin and a map of the rail network. The red pin represents a bottleneck.
You have to place the pin somewhere, BUT  you have a choice of placing the pin in one of two locations - on the Merivale Bridge or
on the Sunshine Coast line.

Which bottleneck is worse - one located pretty much next to the core or one located on the SC line?

In this case we are deciding not which option is better, but which option is least worst.

None of this is to say CRR is a higher priority than NCL or vice-versa,  but I think we have to choose.
NPV will shed light on the situation. The benefits of CRR are around $9 billion. The NCL upgrade would have to generate
at least $9 billion worth of benefits to be a higher priority than the NCL in my opinion.

Sorry, but this is just another of your false dichotomies.

The NCL upgrade does not cost anything near what CRR costs.  It can easily be done without going to IA or private enterprise, simply by reprioritising some funding and driving some efficiency.
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