Flood information - links

[ozbob]

BOM radar 3.36pm 27th January 2013

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR662.loop.shtml#skip

[ozbob]

Rain starting to ease at Goodna.  Edge of main rain cell about in line with the railway line .. 

--> http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml#skip

[ozbob]

Twitter

Campbell Newman ‏@theqldpremier

There will be a minor flood in the Bremer and Brisbane rivers. Very shortly flood maps will be available on the council websites. - PT

[ozbob]

No doubt, those flooded this time will attribute the releases from Wivenhoe as a possible causal factor ...  and line up the 'flood litigation chasers' ...

[ozbob]

Twitter

Campbell Newman ‏@theqldpremier

Approx 3500 residential properties and 2500 businesses could be flooded under the scenario mapped. -PT

[somebody]

Predicted flood level is the threshold for moderate in Brisbane, and into "major" for Ipswich.

[ozbob]

The Bremer is always a worry, particularly if Brisbane River high too .......  I would possibly expect some flooding at Goodna as well

[ozbob]

Rain starting to ease at Goodna.  Edge of main rain cell about in line with the railway line .. 

--> http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml#skip

Cell reformed ...  p%ssing down again ..

[ozbob]

I had this tweet read out on radio 22nd Jan 2013, it was in the context of a discussion on the flood litigation actions ..

====================

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow

@612brisbane Brisbane will flood again ... who will they sue then? Themselves??

7:00 AM - 22 Jan 13

[Stillwater]

Critical to consideration of this matter is (1) when did they open the gates at Wivenhoe (2) what volume of water passed through (3) how long does it take for a drop of water from Wivenhoe to meet the junction of the Bremer with the Brisbane River (4) what was the volume of water flowing into the Brisbane R from the Lockyer Creek, Bremer and Warrill Creek.

[somebody]

(5) Were the releases in accordance with the manual.  Unless that provision in the Act is struck down.

1- 4pm Friday
2- not that much.  Up to 1100 cumecs, now down to 850 cumecs.
3- Takes about a day AIUI.
4- lots.

[ozbob]

I commented at that the time, as did Simon, there was little point in water release from Wivenhoe - political chest puffing more than anything else, but the problem is for the Government now is that it has clearly contributed to a river rise. The Premier is on the record as saying that the reserves in Somerset and Wivenhoe are more than adequate to manage the event.  "Releasing water was to appease community concerns " not really for flood mitigation reasons.  They the politicians took the decision to open the flood gates, NOT on SEQ Water advice( will post the link to the BT article here). I think they have an issue here now. 

The problem for Ipswich is that the Bremer will tend to back up and flood higher if the Brisbane river is running a mitigation banker ...

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Wivenhoe to release water - but not on Seqwater's advice

[ozbob]

Twitter

Ipswich News ‏@Ipswich_News

Exit 32 of Ipswich Mwy closed onto Brisbane Rd (Goodna) because of flooding. Avoid the area!

[ozbob]

BCC Flood Flag Maps

--> here!

[somebody]

Critical to consideration of this matter is (1) when did they open the gates at Wivenhoe (2) what volume of water passed through (3) how long does it take for a drop of water from Wivenhoe to meet the junction of the Bremer with the Brisbane River (4) what was the volume of water flowing into the Brisbane R from the Lockyer Creek, Bremer and Warrill Creek.

From CM, The flow is less than half in 2011 when that flow competed with the Bremer which was probably higher than now. The dam level is also much lower so I suppose they at least have the option of slowing it down. If I recall correctly, in 2011 the opened the gates in a rush because the Met said there was a predicted cloud burst over Wivenhoe coming that later didn't. I thought that had this cloud burst occured and the gates not had lowered the water, the dam was at risk.

As always, Open to correction!

Everyone is saying this flood will be less severe than 2011.  What remains to be seen is will the chest beating actually cause flood damage unnecessarily.  The city gauge has already touched the minor flood level, and may reach the moderate one.  Not sure how that relates to actual damage though.

In 2011, they opened the gates at a rate which completely ignored forecast rain.  Then so much water was held in the dam that the mandated strategy was to protect the dam.  Dam openings proceeded quickly, surrounding fears that the 1st fuse plug level would blow.

[ozbob]

Twitter

Campbell Newman ‏@theqldpremier

The Brisbane and Ipswich flood maps have not been released yet - we will make you aware as soon as they are available. - PT

[somebody]

1st fuse plug level would blow.

Whats this bit?

Wivenhoe has a 3 stage auxiliary spillway.  Each stage blows individually and is uncontrolled once it goes.  In round numbers:
1st blows at 75.7m, releases 2000m^3/s
2nd stage blows at 75.9m, releases 7500m^3/s
I presume the 3rd stage blows at 76.1m but I don't remember that specifically.  It releases about the same.

Obviously the actual release varies with the dam level but those are reasonable round figures.  Maximum release in 2011 was about 7500m^3/s, lifting the gates clear of the water would have released 10-11000m^3/s.

[ozbob]

Third 76.7 m, second 76.2 m ...  (I looked it up ..  )

http://www.previous.seqwater.com.au/public/sites/default/files/userfiles/file/pdfs/Dam%20101%20Background%20Presentation_0.pdf

[ozbob]

Brisbane River flood maps 4000m3/s - January 2013

--> here!

[somebody]

Thanks for the correction, ozbob.

[ozbob]

BOM radar 6.00pm 27th January 2013

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR662.loop.shtml#skip

[somebody]

Look to the NW.

[ozbob]

This article gives a bit of a description too

--> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/experts-trying-to-balance-flow-of-wivenhoe-dam-almost-lost-control/story-e6frgczx-1225988034297

[ozbob]

TransLink status 7.25pm 27th January 2013

Severe weather ..

[somebody]

buses normal?

[ozbob]

buses normal?

No, I think they have given up trying to keep up with routes etc.  They issued a general tweet advising widespread disruptions ..

[ozbob]

Main rain cell is moving through now.  South of the Ippy ... main BOM radar has failed ..

Rain is easing here at Goodna.  Was outside before, clouds flying through the sky, winds moderate to strong.

Marbug radar

BOM Marbug radar 7.30pm 27th January 2013

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR502.loop.shtml

[somebody]

buses normal?

No, I think they have given up trying to keep up with routes etc.  They issued a general tweet advising widespread disruptions ..

My point was that is clearly a mistake.

[ozbob]

Ah yes ...   

==========

Twitter

26m TransLink SEQ TransLink SEQ ‏@TransLinkSEQ

Reminder to avoid travel unless absolutely necessary. Extensive delays on all modes across SEQ due to bad weather #bigwet

[ozbob]

I think we can forget about the Ipswich line being back in operation on Tuesday, particularly with all the other issues on the network.  I think the overhead crews might not get back to Ipswich to finish there.  I assume trains are in stabling at Ipswich, so they will be unavailable.  So might have to run limited services ex Redbank, possibly Bundamba.

The original planned block closure 21 - 31 Dec 2012 is looking like it was a pretty good idea about now ...

Just heard Cr Paul Tully on the radio, bit of panic going on in low areas of Goodna ...  I don't think the railway will go under this time though, but Goodna rail station does like to go swimming.   

[ozbob]

This should give an idea ..

Twitter

ABC Radio Brisbane ‏@612brisbane

IPSWICH: Flood prediction maps now online & available at: http://www.ipswich.qld.gov.au  #bigwet #qldfloods http://pdonline.ipswich.qld.gov.au/pdonline/user/home/default.aspx?page=welcome ...

[Gazza]

Are these the fuse plugs (The 3 sections, covered in rock): http://goo.gl/maps/Hy4rg

[somebody]

Are these the fuse plugs (The 3 sections, covered in rock): http://goo.gl/maps/Hy4rg

Yes.

[ozbob]

Ipswich City Council web site is crashing, probably under heavy loads as people chase the info ..

Direct links

Flood 2013 - Combined Address Address.pdf 
http://www.ipswich.qld.gov.au/floods/Flood%202013%20-%20Combined%20Address%20Address.pdf

Flood 2013 - Combined Suburb Street Suburb Street.pdf
http://www.ipswich.qld.gov.au/floods/Flood%202013%20-%20Combined%20Suburb%20Street%20Suburb%20Street.pdf

[ozbob]

Ipswich City Council web site is crashing, probably under heavy loads as people chase the info ..

Direct links

Flood 2013 - Combined Address Address.pdf 
http://www.ipswich.qld.gov.au/floods/Flood%202013%20-%20Combined%20Address%20Address.pdf

Flood 2013 - Combined Suburb Street Suburb Street.pdf
http://www.ipswich.qld.gov.au/floods/Flood%202013%20-%20Combined%20Suburb%20Street%20Suburb%20Street.pdf

managed to download them

Flood 2013 - Combined Address Address.pdf  click --> here!

Flood 2013 - Combined Suburb Street Suburb Street.pdf  click --> here!

[somebody]

Those are the locations which are going to get riverine water into them this time?

[ozbob]

Yep ...   not good ...

[ozbob]

Marbug radar

BOM Marbug radar 9.00pm 27th January 2013

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR502.loop.shtml

[red dragin]

I wonder if CanDo and his spin doctors have come up with a way to blame Labor for all of this yet?

Say goodbye to anything but roadworks, as the evil Labor caused floods again, which used up all the PT money.