Flood information - links

[somebody]

Huh,  it is obvious that if Wivenhoe had been lower then there would have more buffering capacity, I don't think anyone is disputing that.

The system as it was, was overwhelmed. Nothing will change that.  It is highly likely that Brisbane will flood again even if Wivenhoe started off with 10%.  There is a mind set that Wivenhoe will save Brisbane, when nothing is further from the truth.  It depends on where the main falls actually occur.  A scenario like 1893, serial Cyclones/weather events is also possible.  Wivenhoe is a potentially a lethal weapon, let it overfill and then massive flooding.  This would have been at the back of the mind of the operators.

If it starts at 10% there would have to more like a 10000 year flood though.

[Golliwog]

Huh,  it is obvious that if Wivenhoe had been lower then there would have more buffering capacity, I don't think anyone is disputing that.

The system as it was, was overwhelmed. Nothing will change that.  It is highly likely that Brisbane will flood again even if Wivenhoe started off with 10%.  There is a mind set that Wivenhoe will save Brisbane, when nothing is further from the truth.  It depends on where the main falls actually occur.  A scenario like 1893, serial Cyclones/weather events is also possible.  Wivenhoe is a potentially a lethal weapon, let it overfill and then massive flooding.  This would have been at the back of the mind of the operators.

If it starts at 10% there would have to more like a 10000 year flood though.

Or if all the rain had fallen in the Bremer or Lockyer catchment, or pretty much anywhere downstream of the dam. I think what is happening now with all the overscrutinising of the actions of the dam engineers is a bit too much. Everything considered, they did a damn good job and to now come back and say "Well, if you had done this slightly different thing (which in most people's scenarios seems to involve forseeing some of the massive amount of rain that fell) then the flooding in Brisbane would have been a little bit lower, so we're going to sue you" is a bit ridiculous.

[ozbob]

Huh,  it is obvious that if Wivenhoe had been lower then there would have more buffering capacity, I don't think anyone is disputing that.

The system as it was, was overwhelmed. Nothing will change that.  It is highly likely that Brisbane will flood again even if Wivenhoe started off with 10%.  There is a mind set that Wivenhoe will save Brisbane, when nothing is further from the truth.  It depends on where the main falls actually occur.  A scenario like 1893, serial Cyclones/weather events is also possible.  Wivenhoe is a potentially a lethal weapon, let it overfill and then massive flooding.  This would have been at the back of the mind of the operators.

I saw the two things separately.

1.  The dam should have been lowered immediately they had the briefing towards the end of 2010.  It wasn't.  SEQ Water management have escaped scrutiny so far ...
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/wicked-weather/expert-warns-that-cyclones-rain-and-flooding-are-on-the-way/story-e6freorf-1225939565460

2.  The operation of the dam in the December/January crisis.  Peak capacity was 186%, at which point all flood gates pouring out water.  Just imagine if the inflows had have continued ...  and they had not dumped the water.  The inquiry said that this phase of the operation was near pefect.

It is this dichotomy that many cannot grasp.

Hydrologist Tony Weber, of eWater Cooperative Research Centre, said flooding would depend on where the rain fell.

``If it falls, say, in the Bremer and Lockyer rivers, we will have very little control over flooding,'' Mr Weber said.

``But if it falls in the Upper Brisbane and Stanley River catchment, we have some limited control ... but we shouldn't be looking at the Wivenhoe Dam to save us.''

Former flood task force director and professor of civil engineering Colin Apelt said Brisbane sat on a vast flood plain and the risks were still high.

``People have been lulled into a false sense of security,'' he said.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/wicked-weather/expert-warns-that-cyclones-rain-and-flooding-are-on-the-way/story-e6freorf-1225939565460

Couriermail --> Wivenhoe dam engineers win sympathy from Ipswich councillor Paul Tully

... SEQWATER lawyers have strongly disputed a key accusation confronting the three Wivenhoe dam engineers as a high-profile flood victim demands the crime watchdog expand its investigation.

Ipswich councillor Paul Tully, who lost his family's Goodna home in the flood, said the three engineers could not be made "scapegoats".

"It would be unthinkable these three engineers on their own (acted) without a nod and a wink from Seqwater," Cr Tully said.

"The CMC needs to widen its investigation. ... "

[ozbob]

Queensland Times --> Water released from Wivenhoe

WATER is being released slowly from Wivenhoe Dam following the weekend's rainfall.

Savages Crossing and Colleges Crossing will remain open, with only Twin Bridges affected.

Wivenhoe Dam is currently at 76.4% capacity and rising slowly.

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Wivenhoe Dam bosses holidayed as flood crisis deepened

[ozbob]

http://www.ewnalert.com/032102.htm

QLD Severe Weather Warning: Heavy Rain

Source: Bureau of Meteorology
For people in the Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, Maranoa and Warrego,
Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Southeast Coast and parts of the Central West,
Central Highlands and Coalfields and Channel Country districts.
Issued at 10:35 am on Wednesday 21 March 2012

Synoptic Situation: At 10am AEST, the monsoon trough extended across northwest
and central Queensland from the Gulf Country to the Central Coast and
Whitsundays district. A tropical low was situated approximately 100 kilometres
north northeast of Longreach and moving in a southeasterly direction at 20
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue moving in a southeasterly
direction today while weakening gradually into Thursday.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and worsen the existing flood
situation is expected in the Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, Maranoa and
Warrego, southern parts of the Central West, southern parts of the Central
Highlands and Coalfields, eastern parts of the Channel Country and northern
parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts today. Scattered 24 hour
totals in excess of 150mm are likely. Locations that may be affected include
Longreach, Emerald, Rockhampton, Gladstone, Bundaberg, Charleville and Roma.

These conditions are expected to extend southwards across the Southeast Coast
and remaining parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt on Thursday while
gradually easing across central and western districts during the day.

In the 24 hours to 9am AEST Wednesday, the highest rainfall totals were recorded
about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, including Mount Jukes with
325mm, Mount Vince with 293mm and Upper Bee Creek with 241mm.

Heavy rainfall is now easing about the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders
and Central Coast and Whitsundays districts and therefore the warning for these
districts is now CANCELLED. However, showers and thunderstorms are still
expected to occur in these districts today and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will
be issued as necessary. Damaging winds are also no longer expected in the
Central Coast and Whitsundays, Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West,
and northern parts of Maranoa and Warrego districts today.

Flood Warnings are current for various rivers and streams; refer to
www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings.

Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:
- Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
- Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
- Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
Unsubscribe or EWN Support | BoM Radar

[somebody]

Couriermail --> Wivenhoe Dam bosses holidayed as flood crisis deepened

What were they supposed to do?  A special "rain, rain go away" dance?  If they had procedures in place where someone else could handle everything, what's the problem?

Organising the response might be a different matter I guess.  They were back in time for that.

[colinw]

Brisbane Times -> It all comes flooding back

[ozbob]

Severe weather warning --> http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20032.txt

Fair bit of rain coming ..

[ozbob]

FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL RIVERS AND ADJACENT INLAND CATCHMENTS FROM MARYBOROUGH TO NSW BORDER

--> http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20780.html

[ozbob]

Couriermail -->Torrential rain, flash flooding hits Sunshine Coast

[ozbob]

Queensland Times --> LNP: Theres no cash for bridges

[Golliwog]

Queensland Times --> LNP: Theres no cash for bridges

Wasn't one of the election commitments that they would implement the recommendations of the flood inquiry? As per: http://lnp.org.au/news/leader-of-the-lnp/lnp-will-implement-flood-report-recommendations-to-deliver-better-future

The LNP has welcomed the Flood Commission of Inquiry Report released today and has committed to implementing all the recommendations.

LNP Leader Campbell Newman said the report appeared to be a substantial investigation of the matters surrounding the 2010/11 floods.

"The matters raised by the Flood Commission of Inquiry report are very serious," he said.

"We are committed to working through these recommendations with all the impacted stakeholders to determine how best they can be implemented.
.....

So isn't this the LNP breaking an election promise? Didn't Mr Newman say that if he got in and found the budget was worse than they had been led to believe, they wouldn't just can promises, but find more savings?

[ozbob]

Indeed Golli .... 

[somebody]

Digging up the report, 17.25 recommends:

The Department of Transport and Main Roads, in conjunction with Brisbane City Council and
Somerset Regional Council, should investigate options for the upgrade of Brisbane River crossings
between Wivenhoe Dam and Colleges Crossing and undertake a cost-benefit analysis of these to
determine the outcome which best serves the public interest.

They investigated, and it was unattractive, is no doubt the defence.

[ozbob]

Bet they haven't even looked at it.  Be interesting how the newly elected LNP MPs out Ippy way handle this.   Lining up already as one term wonders ...

[Golliwog]

Yeah, I don't see how they can say they've investigated it. I mean, it's only been 1 month since they got in, they haven't even updated anything to do with the Samford-Wardell St upgrade to state Campbells new plans for it. I've even emailed the team a few weeks back asking about whats going to happen now (ie: will they investigate Campbells plan to see if it will actually do anything, or will they just adopt his plan because he used to be an engineer and knows everything) and haven't even received a "We'll check for you" email back.

[Stillwater]

The key issue here is the reference to 'cost benefit analysis.'  If the usual cost benefit analysis is used, the criteria that apply include maintenance costs on the old bridge that are saved if a new one is built, travel time savings by motorists, improved productivity because people and industry are not affected by floodwaters closing the bridge, and  cost savings due to safety etc.

The commissioners would seem to be suggesting that the cost benefit net be cast wide to include the Brisbane-wide cost implications of holding back floodwaters so they don't innundate the bridge, but subsequently have them released, thereby causing damage to houses and areas beyond the bridge whose residents never cross it in normal travel and who, in normal circumstances, would not be included in a conventional cost benefit study.

And then we have the problem of the twisting border of the Ipswich and Brisbane councils up that way.  They don't cooperate and neither feels inclined to put money towards a project that each sees as benefitting the other -- just like trying to get Qld and NSW cooperate on cross-border rail.

[somebody]

The commissioners would seem to be suggesting that the cost benefit net be cast wide to include the Brisbane-wide cost implications of holding back floodwaters so they don't innundate the bridge, but subsequently have them released,

Which would be stupid.  Much like taking an anti-rail bias because rail currently provides generally poor services in Brisbane.

My impression of the inquiry is that they were much more concerned about Young's Crossing than the Ipswich bridges which I could not imagine being cost effective to be upgraded.

[justanotheruser]

Queensland Times --> LNP: Theres no cash for bridges

Wasn't one of the election commitments that they would implement the recommendations of the flood inquiry? As per: http://lnp.org.au/news/leader-of-the-lnp/lnp-will-implement-flood-report-recommendations-to-deliver-better-future

The LNP has welcomed the Flood Commission of Inquiry Report released today and has committed to implementing all the recommendations.

LNP Leader Campbell Newman said the report appeared to be a substantial investigation of the matters surrounding the 2010/11 floods.

"The matters raised by the Flood Commission of Inquiry report are very serious," he said.

"We are committed to working through these recommendations with all the impacted stakeholders to determine how best they can be implemented.
.....

So isn't this the LNP breaking an election promise? Didn't Mr Newman say that if he got in and found the budget was worse than they had been led to believe, they wouldn't just can promises, but find more savings?

He actually said it both ways. he also said promises would be broken if things were worse financially than he thought. They wrote themselves a get out of jail free card and people said yeah lets vote for them!

[ozbob]

From the Queensland Times click here!

State to be flooded by action

State to be flooded by action

Kieran Banks | 15th May 2012 8:16 AM

FLOOD litigators IMF and Maurice Blackburn Lawyers are confident a class action law suit against the State will go ahead as they await the results of their research.

IMF and Maurice Blackburn Lawyers announced their intention to launch a possible class action law suit against the State prior to the release of the Bligh Government's flood report in March.

Investigations into the potential for a law suit have continued since then, with the findings expected to be known in eight weeks time.

The class action hinges on the findings of their research into the botched dam releases and if flooding could have been avoided in some areas had the dam releases been managed correctly.

IMF executive director John Walker, the financial backers of Maurice Blackburn's class action, is positive the research will indicate Ipswich flood victims will have their day in court.

Mr Walker said the firm had retained a dam operation expert to establish if the floodwater may have been stemmed with better prepared releases.

They expect the results of their investigations to be positive and crystallise their legal action.

"Then we will assess what would not have been flooded if the dam was operated improperly. We are feeling more confident as time goes on that a claim against the state will be made," he said.

Around 600 Ipswich residents have signed on for the class action out of the 3000 from the greater Brisbane region.

He expects numbers to increase as the doubt around the law suit dissipates in the coming months.

Councillor Paul Tully said Goodna residents are still inquiring to him about how to register.

"People are asking about what they need to do or what the timing will be," he said.

Mr Walker said further town hall meetings will be held in late June to update complainants and the community on how the research is progressing. He said at least one of those meetings should be held in Ipswich.

It was originally expected the number of potential claimants joining the class action could reach 6000. Hundreds of flood-affected Ipswich residents attended the first round of meetings held in Ipswich, Goodna and the Lockyer Valley.

[#Metro]

It will be interesting to see what their explanation for why they built in a KNOW FLOOD AREA is...
Negligence on the part of the property buyer? Made unreasonable assumptions?

Perhaps they should be suing the real estate agents instead...

[ozbob]

http://www.ewnalert.com/051501.htm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in the Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast District.

[justanotheruser]

It will be interesting to see what their explanation for why they built in a KNOW FLOOD AREA is...
Negligence on the part of the property buyer? Made unreasonable assumptions?

Perhaps they should be suing the real estate agents instead...

Australian law does not allow for that sadly. if you are at fault even to a small degree you are fully liable. Unlike in the US where a proportion of blame is assigned. So for example if a payout was $10 million and the defendent was only 10% to blame then they only pay $1 million. Would be good to have similar in Australia.  of course the councils have to approve the land for building. Citiswich was part of a flood mitigation area that no longer exists due to anti-flood measures built to protect it. The water had to go somewhere else. Of course it is possible that the state government coerced council into freeing up more land to reduce housing costs. That has happened in other states and could have happened here.

[SurfRail]

Australian law does not allow for that sadly. if you are at fault even to a small degree you are fully liable. Unlike in the US where a proportion of blame is assigned. So for example if a payout was $10 million and the defendent was only 10% to blame then they only pay $1 million. Would be good to have similar in Australia.

Um, no. 

Contributory negligence is quite well-known and used in the Australian legal system.

[justanotheruser]

Australian law does not allow for that sadly. if you are at fault even to a small degree you are fully liable. Unlike in the US where a proportion of blame is assigned. So for example if a payout was $10 million and the defendent was only 10% to blame then they only pay $1 million. Would be good to have similar in Australia.

Um, no. 

Contributory negligence is quite well-known and used in the Australian legal system.

have never heard of it in the cases where i've been on a jury. would have thought i would hear it but no matter. i assume you know better than I.

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Queensland flood towns risk major damage by resisting levee banks

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Anti-flood valves to be installed across Brisbane

[Golliwog]

Brisbanetimes --> Anti-flood valves to be installed across Brisbane

I'm generally supportive of this move. Though trying to pretend these are a cure all helps no one. These would have helped some areas in last years floods as they were due to heavy rainfall further up the catchment, but if we have a flood which has rain all over the catchment, they will either do nothing, or potentially worsen it if they remain closed (not sure how they work exactly, one of the commenters on that article listed an example of where the gate stayed closed during local heavy rain causing Roaslie to flood?) They would also worsen flooding (to what degree I don't know, I don't have the models) for those along the river as water that did escape the river up the stormwater pipes to equally low areas is now trapped in the river channel causing the water to go to potentially higher levels.

I'd be interested to know if the study into these devices that quantified how many houses would be protected from backflow flooding also looked at the potential increase in riverine flooding along the river.

[somebody]

Brisbanetimes --> Anti-flood valves to be installed across Brisbane

I'm generally supportive of this move. Though trying to pretend these are a cure all helps no one. These would have helped some areas in last years floods as they were due to heavy rainfall further up the catchment, but if we have a flood which has rain all over the catchment, they will either do nothing, or potentially worsen it if they remain closed (not sure how they work exactly, one of the commenters on that article listed an example of where the gate stayed closed during local heavy rain causing Roaslie to flood?) They would also worsen flooding (to what degree I don't know, I don't have the models) for those along the river as water that did escape the river up the stormwater pipes to equally low areas is now trapped in the river channel causing the water to go to potentially higher levels.

I'd be interested to know if the study into these devices that quantified how many houses would be protected from backflow flooding also looked at the potential increase in riverine flooding along the river.

A very legitimate concern.  If it reduces the capacity to flow out storm water a more frequent local flood could be worsened for a less common riverine flood.

I remember in the 1980s, Hornsby council upgraded its storm water from handling a 5-year flood to a 20-year flood.  2011 was more like a 100 year flood.  Some say 1000-year+ in parts of the catchment.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Flood victims' family demands judicial inquiry

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes -->Flooded markets consider $100m class action

[justanotheruser]

Brisbanetimes -->Flooded markets consider $100m class action

I remember a real estate agent when trying to sell some units saying people would not be able to climb up to level 1 units. I promptly walked outside and climbed up the outside ofthe building onto the balcony to prove them wrong. If your stupid enough just to take someones word for it that an area won't flood again when anyone with half a brain should know that you can't guarantee that does not deserve compensation. What next people claiming they deserve compensation because they lit a cigarette near their BBQ gas bottle? To me the argument the guy here is making is we were stupid so please give us money! they are a private business and had the option of purchasing flood insurance. however like many business they chose not to. if they had then that is their money to rebuild.


it is because ofpeople like this that every claim has to be processed and investigated thoroughly before assistance is provided.

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Wivenhoe class-action lawsuit relies on dam experts

[ozbob]

Queensland Times --> Legal firm confident of victory

[somebody]

Queensland Times --> Legal firm confident of victory

I think it would be a travesty of justice if this is successful.

-
Dam engineers' defence from 612: http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2012/07/queensland-floods-inquiry-engineers-response.html?site=brisbane&program=612_morning
Haven't heard it yet.

[Golliwog]

Basically agreeing with the Flood Inquiry's finding that the three engineers achieved basically the best possible outcome with the data they had on hand. When pushed on the legal claims, he agreed that from a technical standpoint, they don't really have a case to answer.

If the state is found liable, in these circumstances (ie: that there wasn't really anything better they could have done) what sort of precendant does that set for other flood prevention dams?

[somebody]

Basically agreeing with the Flood Inquiry's finding that the three engineers achieved basically the best possible outcome with the data they had on hand. When pushed on the legal claims, he agreed that from a technical standpoint, they don't really have a case to answer.

The way I remember it, that wasn't a finding, but a submission.

[Golliwog]

Basically agreeing with the Flood Inquiry's finding that the three engineers achieved basically the best possible outcome with the data they had on hand. When pushed on the legal claims, he agreed that from a technical standpoint, they don't really have a case to answer.

The way I remember it, that wasn't a finding, but a submission.

Just re-listened to it (about 6-7 minutes from the end) and he, the Engineers Australia rep, Dr. Bill Weeks, said that was one of their conclusions.

[somebody]

Just re-listened to it (about 6-7 minutes from the end) and he, the Engineers Australia rep, Dr. Bill Weeks, said that was one of their conclusions.

But not a finding of the commission.

Little that the commission said made any sense IMO, mind you.