Roads - articles and discussion

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Concern for Brisbane Airport Link owner

... THE operator of Brisbane's Airport Link toll road has indicated it is experiencing funding trouble, while two directors have handed in their resignations.

Securities in BrisConnections (BCS) have been halted from trade on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on Monday, at the company's request.

"The trading halt is requested pending an announcement by BCS to the market in respect of discussions with lenders," the company said. ...

[ozbob]

I am still fuming re Legacy way and the failure to enable it properly for the ' 2000 express buses daily '  ..  outright lies and gross incompetence from all three levels of government, Federal, State and the BCC.

See -->     4 Mar 2012: SEQ: Legacy way's 2000 daily express buses - we don't believe it ..

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Directors resign as BrisConnections hits funding trouble

===========

Never a dull moment in Queensland ...   

[Set in train]

612 ABC Brisbane radio Mornings with Steve Austin

--> http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2012/11/is-brisconnections-in-trouble.html

I heard Dr Goldberg's i/v this morning and thought of you, he hit the nail on the head.

The Clem 7 figures were also rubbery claiming as many vehicles in their 4 lane tunnel as the daily count for the 8 lane Captain Cook Bridge, it was never going to happen and I did alert the journos I know to this.

I predict Dr Goldberg will become quite a favourite media 'go-to' in the future.

[ozbob]

Media release 12th November 2012

SEQ: Transport Time Out Needed as AirportLink Collapses

RAIL Back On Track (http://backontrack.org) a web based community support group for rail and public transport and an advocate for public transport passengers says with the approaching collapse of AirportLink the transport plans of South East Queensland are in tatters.

Robert Dow, Spokesman for RAIL Back On Track said:

"It is time to acknowledge that we have spent the last 50 years claiming to be solving congestion and air pollution but actually making them worse. Reducing congestion by building more roads is an urban myth!  Claims by political parties or lobbyists the latest road project will reduce traffic and congestion are false, misleading and unsubstantiated by fact!  (1,2)."

"Toll roads are financially nonviable, as evidenced here in Brisbane with the collapse of Clem 7 and Airport Link, and have not reduced congestion as claimed.  It is no wonder that BCC and the Federal Government have had to fund Legacy Way.  Claims that it will be profitable are miss-leading with the true capital and operating cost borne by the rate and tax payers."

"Transport planning in South East Queensland is a complete unmitigated mess.   It has failed on every level. The plans and projects over the last 20 years have created this mess not failed to prepare for it."

"It's a sign of failure that three road tunnels will have been completed before the first sod will be turned on what has been repeatedly identified as South East Queensland's number one infrastructure priority, namely Cross River Rail."

"An urgent Transport Timeout is required to halt major road expansion projects and to re-prioritise the transport investment in South East Queensland. We must look to world leaders like Vancouver, Copenhagen and Berlin who have set aggressive targets of "at least two-thirds of trips on foot, bike or transit by 2040 (3)."

"We need to urgently make SEQ pedestrian and cycle safe. Road can no longer be the sole domain of the car. Segregated bus and bike lanes need to be built on all major roads (4).  Bus and train frequencies increased to 15min off peak and even more frequent during peak hour.  The bus network needs to be redesigned to create a Core Frequent Network (5)  that runs along major roads creating a grid of transit routes across the region.   Public transport fares need to be redesigned to get more people onto public transport (6). Finally schools and other major trip generators need to develop 'sustainable' transport plans just like they did during our water shortages."

"Failing to take Time Out will only continue to increase the drain on rates and taxes and further increase the cost of living for residents of South East Queensland."

Contact:

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

References:

1. Goodbye-ways: The downfall of urban freeways - http://grist.org/cities/goodbye-ways-the-downfall-of-urban-freeways

2. Southeast Queensland motorists stuck at 40km/h in peak hour on clogged major roads - http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=4767

3. http://www2.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html?id=b1a1df9b-f9aa-4b25-bd4c-2491a15fdfb8

4. http://sti-india-uttoolkit.adb.org/imgs/mod2/se3/p89.gif

5. http://www.humantransit.org/2010/02/the-power-and-pleasure-of-grids.html

6. http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=9131.msg110025#msg110025

[duncang]

I would love to know how these guys come up with their traffic forecasts..

By my calculations, 135,000 vehicles per day (86,400 sec)  is about 1.5 vehicles per second entering the tunnel.  Across 4 lanes, that gives an average separation of 2.5 seconds - 24/7.  Surely this is closer to the ultimate capacity of the tunnel, rather than the starting point???

Edit:  For their ultimate projection of 195,000, this is an average vehicle spacing of just 1.78 seconds - surely this will require some kind of autonomous car control such as active cruise control to be safe. - what am I missing here??

[ozbob]

Spot on Duncan.  We have been querying the projections for years.  All coming home to roost now ...

[somebody]

The Airport Link is 6 lanes on the southern section and four on the northern section: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/free-travel-and-cutprice-tolls-to-lure-drivers-to-airport-link-20120628-213uc.html

That does raise the average separation to only 3.75 seconds.  Even that figure ignores the length of the cars and trucks in it.

I guess there are always people doing short sectors in the tunnel.  Not sure how significant that is.

[ozbob]

Perfect world, each road lane can carry around 2000 vehicles per lane per hour.  As you increase the number of lanes the capacity actually decreases per lane, for a four lane road around 1800 vehicles per lane per hour.

So theoretically a 4 lane road could carry 1800 x 4 x 24 = 173,000 per 24h.  But that is never going to be achieved of course.  Peak flows may approach that for short periods only,  and problem of bottlenecks on and off the 4 lane road.

Interesting paper here --> http://www.easts.info/on-line/proceedings_05/739.pdf

The traffic projections used for the road tunnels in Brisbane are just theoretical constructs, and shown to be misleading and possibly fraudulent by Goldberg --> http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2012/11/is-brisconnections-in-trouble.html

To further emphasise the flawed basis of the theoretical traffic constructs, lets take a 4 track railway line.

Say 2 minute headways, 1000 pax per train,  passenger capacity then is 4 x 30 x 1000 x 24 = 2.9 Million passengers per day. 
Likely to happen?  Of course not, this is same as the projections used for Clem 7 and AirportLink in the general sense .... bullsh%t!   

[awotam]

Ain't it great to live in the Smart State? 

[ozbob]

Ain't it great to live in the Smart State? 

[ozbob]

AIRPORT LINK

[Gazza]

2.9 Million passengers per day. 
Likely to happen?  Of course not,

Except for the 3.7 Million daily riders on the Yamanote line 

[Jonno]

AIRPORT LINK

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/UH4ifCraQXY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

...and there's the quote about Legacy Way.  Lets play "SPOT THE SUBSIDY!!!!!!!!".   Is it operational? Is it capital or....is it BOTH!!!!!

[BrizCommuter]

http://brizcommuter.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/now-airport-link-goes-tits-up.html
Now Airport Link goes tits-up!

[#Metro]

SCANDAL SCANDAL! 

http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/roads/F3toM7Review/pdf/SUBMISSION_23-Appendix_A.pdf

[#Metro]

http://brizcommuter.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/now-airport-link-goes-tits-up.html
Now Airport Link goes tits-up!

A good article, but I can't agree with Legacy way. Council as a public organisation is in a different position where they can't just call in administrators and do the corporate equivalent of just resign and run. This is why Legacy Way has a far lower forecast traffic volume of around 24 000, probably an underestimate to make it look good for when it does open, no doubt primed for a manufactured 'success story'. In any case, I think Legacy Way will meet its traffic forecasts.

That said, it will hardly be a congestion reducer for long, the volume, 24 000 per day is just too small. A decent rail system does that in one hour.

It irritates me that BCC can see it fit to give money for private road construction, buses and ferries bus has an allergic reaction to supplying some funding for more rail services.

[#Metro]

I would love to know how these guys come up with their traffic forecasts..

By my calculations, 135,000 vehicles per day (86,400 sec)  is about 1.5 vehicles per second entering the tunnel.  Across 4 lanes, that gives an average separation of 2.5 seconds - 24/7.  Surely this is closer to the ultimate capacity of the tunnel, rather than the starting point???

Edit:  For their ultimate projection of 195,000, this is an average vehicle spacing of just 1.78 seconds - surely this will require some kind of autonomous car control such as active cruise control to be safe. - what am I missing here??

I agree that the figures are derived from LaLa Land Traffic Engineering and Co in conjunction with Fiesta of Concrete Constructions Ltd; neither are reputable...

Now what do we have - big tunnels, big flyovers, big dramatic impact on the landscape... and no one uses it anyway.

SYMBOLS OF good transport versus ACTUAL good transport.

[Jonno]

If Legacy Way can be profitable At such low numbers then there is some creative accounting going on.  Those volumes would send any other operator bust!

[#Metro]

List of symbolic transport in Brisbane

Clem 7 tunnel - touted as THE solution to all our Earthy problems, descended from heaven, result - no one uses it
BrisCon - same as above, built immediately after Clem 7
CityCycle - pretty decoration but also generally useless
Springfield line - hugely expensive but no more frequent than the parallel bus route that it is supposed to replace
Maroon CityGlider - lots of hype, but no network logic to it
Eastern Busway Buranda to Stones Corner - hugely expensive, same thing could be achieved by simply routing buses via
deshon street.
Painted bicycle lanes - looks like something is happening, but the lanes are so thin, narrow, unenforced and unsegregated that no-one uses them

There may be others, please add. Some things on the list are only symbolic now, they might not be in the future, for example if Springfield line gets decent frequency, that would be a game changer to the extent that it would be taken off the list.

[#Metro]

If Legacy Way can be profitable At such low numbers then there is some creative accounting going on.  Those volumes would send any other operator bust!

Cost benefit ratios for government and private corporations are calculated differently. Government organisations have very little credit risk because they have guaranteed income due to taxing powers. No Australian Government, state or federal has ever defaulted. In contrast, companies go bust all the time. This means that interest rates are lower for gov't versus private corporations.

Secondly, a corporation is only concerned with benefits that accrue to it, the firm, whereas governments have a larger view because they're interested in maximising social welfare, count benefits to the whole of society.

IIRC, what this means is that an identical project, with identical costs, done by a company versus done by a government will have different BCRs and different NPVs. You can see this in the case of many transport projects - the NPV is negative when calculated via the 'corporate' way.

[duncang]

Perfect world, each road lane can carry around 2000 vehicles per lane per hour.  As you increase the number of lanes the capacity actually decreases per lane, for a four lane road around 1800 vehicles per lane per hour.

I can't see how 2000 veh/hr works, or even 1800..

Here's my working: 2000 veh/hr = 0.55 veh/sec or 1.8 sec / veh.  Assuming 60 km/h (16.7m/s), a 6m long car passes in 0.36 seconds, leaving a 1.44 second gap between cars - half a second less than what we're all taught by the road safety campaigns.

Assuming a 2 second gap at 60 km/h, then the ultimate capacity of a single lane couldn't be more than 1525 veh/day.  As you say, even less for multi lanes, and less again when you have longer vehicles, cars not keeping space etc..   Ok, I'll get off that horse now 


Point taken on the rail 

[#Metro]

Anyone have any idea for what to do with two empty tunnels. War/Bomb shelter and drag racing strip or intractable waste disposal repository spring to mind. Mushroom farm might also make more money...

[somebody]

Perfect world, each road lane can carry around 2000 vehicles per lane per hour.  As you increase the number of lanes the capacity actually decreases per lane, for a four lane road around 1800 vehicles per lane per hour.

I can't see how 2000 veh/hr works, or even 1800..

Here's my working: 2000 veh/hr = 0.55 veh/sec or 1.8 sec / veh.  Assuming 60 km/h (16.7m/s), a 6m long car passes in 0.36 seconds, leaving a 1.44 second gap between cars - half a second less than what we're all taught by the road safety campaigns.

Assuming a 2 second gap at 60 km/h, then the ultimate capacity of a single lane couldn't be more than 1525 veh/day.  As you say, even less for multi lanes, and less again when you have longer vehicles, cars not keeping space etc..   Ok, I'll get off that horse now 

I think 1500 veh/hr/lane is rough capacity, 1800pax/hr/lane assuming 1.2 pax/veh

[HappyTrainGuy]

Re bike lanes. You might want to dive a little deeper. Most aren't narrow but the issues behind them are due to other dangers such as the nature of the area, the road layout (intersections/side streets, visibility/being seen etc), road side parking (being in the door zone), debris in the bike lane (leaves, rocks, dirt, sand, glass), the riders speed, traffic and other factors. At Kedron outside the busway there is a dedicated bike lane. Some cyclists will stick to the bike lane (from my observations usually the slower/commuter type riders) while others will occupy the inside lane (sometimes doing more than 60kph) to avoid the debris thrown into the bike lane from turning traffic off Kedron Park road and continue along Gympie Road instead of mounting the footpath at the Stafford/Gympie Road merge.

CityCycle has its own problems mostly relating to the sign up process and associated insurance coverage for the CityCycle program.

The tunnels in themselves are great but the price to use them are the deturrents. That too and the speedlimit which imho could be raised. That sucks even more when you have to pay multiple tolls to use multiple tunnels. If they were all managed by the same group with lower costs to use them they could eventually become popular enough to get the numbers up.

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Airport Link operators driven to the ground as $4.8 billion asset worth less than it owes

[ozbob]

2000 vehicles per lane per hour is the standard max ball park figure whether you agree with it or not.  Just using that in the context of airport link to highlight how far off reality their traffic projections are.  In reality that is not going to be achieved and just highlights the nature of the flawed projections.

See --> http://www.indevelopment.nl/PDFfiles/CapacityOfRroads.pdf

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Fools suffering as long, hard road exacts its toll

... BRISCONNECTIONS - the company that built and is now operating the toll road from Brisbane central to the airport - has been a slow-mo train wreck since the start. (It would have been a slow-mo car wreck but there were never enough cars using the tollway to collide) ...

[duncang]

See --> http://www.indevelopment.nl/PDFfiles/CapacityOfRroads.pdf

Thanks Bob - some good material in there 

[ozbob]

Australia's history of dud toll roads in one easy graphic. Wish they'd spent all that money on rail. twitter.com/GregMLC/status...

— greg barber (@GregMLC) November 12, 2012

[somebody]

I see someone going to jail or in big poo over this.

I have no idea how no one has gone to jail for these forecasts yet.  People have gone to jail for much less.

[SurfRail]

I don't think anybody will be going to jail, fined or so much as slapped on the wrist because the consultants will have excluded any liability for reliance on their forecasting.

It's something of an interesting market failure that these people can still produce such dodgy work and haven't been blackbanned yet.  No doubt because there is so much government money tied up in most of these projects, even if most of the risk is with the private capital.

[Jonno]

A key discussion point that is missed is that the State and BCC have invested 100's of millions in these projects with the value of that investment less than half or worse and our transport problems still unaddressed and most likely worse because the wrong infrastructure has been built.  Where is Campbell Nwman the "God Father" of TransApex and these tunnels?  Not only has he seen the investment of these millions he ahd also ensure the State Super Funds through QIC has a massive hole to fill? 

This whole Transpex saga is a scandal that needs to be investigated and the true impact/burden on the tax payer exposed.

[somebody]

I don't think anybody will be going to jail, fined or so much as slapped on the wrist because the consultants will have excluded any liability for reliance on their forecasting.

It's something of an interesting market failure that these people can still produce such dodgy work and haven't been blackbanned yet.  No doubt because there is so much government money tied up in most of these projects, even if most of the risk is with the private capital.

Isn't it still an offence to produce a misleading prospectus?

[SurfRail]

^ Depends.  If you have inserted all manner of exclusions of liability to the point where you are basically presenting a work of fiction, you'd probably be clear.  You wouldn't be misleading anybody if the figure is an arbitrary construction and you have stated many many times that it should not be relied upon.

Still dodgy as all get out though.

[techblitz]

i hereby direct all QLD politicians and tunnel investors to observe a simple fact : why would a motor vehilce driver pay a high toll fee when the reason they are probably using the vehicle in the first place is due to high public transport costs??

We have such braniacs running this state dont we

[somebody]

^ Depends.  If you have inserted all manner of exclusions of liability to the point where you are basically presenting a work of fiction, you'd probably be clear.  You wouldn't be misleading anybody if the figure is an arbitrary construction and you have stated many many times that it should not be relied upon.

Still dodgy as all get out though.

That sort of exclusion shouldn't be allowed in any prospectus.

[Mr X]

Who in their right minds invests in a toll tunnel PPP anyway? Those things are always doomed to failure.

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> By all acounts BrisConnections must be living in fantasyland

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Leighton writes off BrisConn stake