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Cross River Rail Project

Started by ozbob, March 22, 2009, 17:02:27 PM

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ozbob



Quote... Infrastructure and transport

Jago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University

The campaign was significant for urbanists: it was the first election in decades in which each major party had a detailed policy vision for cities and urban infrastructure.

The Liberals promised a mix of infrastructure projects, including extending the Gold Coast light rail and supporting the Sydney and Melbourne metro tunnels, as well as various urban road projects such as WestConnex in Sydney.

In urban policy, the Liberals offered a Smart Cities fund to invest in economically innovative urban and suburban redevelopment projects via City Deal financial packages, including one such deal specifically targeting western Sydney.

With a Liberal government we'll likely see the rollout of its already-released Smart Cities policy including new financing arrangements for urban infrastructure combined with sub-metropolitan spatial planning via City Deals. There are still many aspects of this policy to be clarified, such as the extent of government funding that will be contributed to the City Deals.

Overall the 2016 election bodes well for cities, though there are some risks with the Liberals' policy. The government will fund the misguided WestConnex project in Sydney, which will reduce the funds available for public transport. And the City Deals scheme hasn't yet taken shape, but it is important that this funds public transport given the dearth of such infrastructure in Australia's suburbs and the need for suburban place-making through concentrated rail-based hubs.

The Liberals' policy leaves some major urban projects in doubt, such as Brisbane's Cross River Rail. In addition to the physical investment under the Liberals' schemes, new institutional arrangements will likely be needed to provide the co-ordination and program management these presume. What these will look like is not yet known.

The need to radically reduce Australia's dependence on fossil-fuelled urban transport systems is largely overlooked by the Liberals' urban platform, as are the pressing issues of achieving social equity and environmental sustainability in our cities ...
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ozbob

#4161
" The Liberals' policy leaves some major urban projects in doubt, such as Brisbane's Cross River Rail. "

Other states get their collective acts together, Queensland does charades ...

>



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#Metro

I am incredibly skeptical of this "city deals" thing. It sounds like the latest pop nonsense / craze to sweep the bureaucracy.

Cities in the UK have much less autonomy than in Australia, apparently. Much of it sounds like devolution of powers and funding

to local areas - something that Australia already largely has.


Politicians get elected for change and actions, and generally not for keeping things as they are. This leads to change being made for the sake

of change. Even if a system is working reasonably well, they are going to alter it because they need something to talk about. We have seen

this mechanism play out with the TransLink fares, for example. Bit by bit, impulse changes were bolted on to the fare system until it was non-

functional. It is lazy politics.


At the end of the day, funds need to come from somewhere. It is difficult to see that 'somewhere' is another place other than government

funds. There is also a danger that national priorities will take precedence over local priorities (i.e. Abbott putting money for Waste Connex

and the East-Waste link). To a large extent, much of the infrastructure agenda has been captured and controlled by the Federal Gov't anyway

because that's where the money is.


If there is to truly be a change at the state/local level, the changes need to be all on the financing side. State governments need to raise

most of their own funding via land tax or similar. Projects with BCRs below 1 should be banned from funding, subject to an exception rule

to cover situations we haven't thought of. This could be a referendum or similar to build something that had a BCR less than 1.


The thing about Cross River Rail is that the funding is already there. The Queensland Government could borrow and build or lease/sell assets

and build. Victoria did it by leasing off the ports. At this point in time, the Queensland Government seems to be more interested in producing

video animations of CRR.

Negative people... have a problem for every solution. Posts are commentary and are not necessarily endorsed by RAIL Back on Track or its members.

ozbob

Queensland Governments, past and present cannot even manage to do bus reform properly. Other jurisdictions do of course with outstanding results.

There is no hope for major infrastructure with these clowns.  None.  We have to face reality.

So the present mob will babble on, until they are dispatched to the opposition benches. 

The new Govt no doubt will come up with yet another ' project ' .  Now that Quirk has blown the bus network apart with the ' metro ' it may well be a bigger metro  :P 

Meanwhile, the situation with the network just gets worse.  Neither the ALP nor the LNP have the balls to fix it.
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ozbob

If you need any confirmation of the total shambles that is Brisbane look around Oz.

All the major capitals are moving on with real public transport projects.  They have nice animations too, but they are actually happening  :P

Melbourne is buzzing with activity, ditto Sydney.  Adelaide about to do great things with trams and trains.  Perth moving on with major improvements eg. stadium station.

There is nothing happening in Brisbane, nothing.  A new short branch railway to Kippa-Ring is a basket case and is shrouded in secrecy.

The Gold Coast has at least some projects happening.  Sunshine Coast and the rest basically ignored.

Bus networks in all regions need review and improvements.   TransLink is simply not resourced to do much. 

We have made submission for various bus regions and we just get told that maybe in two or three years or usually ignored. 
For f**** sake, these clowns need to be shown the door.
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#Metro

There are some new seats being created due to electoral changes.

There is a chance the election result will be close. The electorate seems to be returning slim majorities, and neither side seems

to be particularly exciting.


So only one or two would be needed to take the balance of power. A strong Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast independent running could

just do the trick. You would only need 2 people and those people to run in the new seat where there is no incumbent to defeat.

I would highlight the Sunshine Coast. The area has been ignored by both blue and red team. Green team have little chance there, except

for perhaps around Noosa, so my personal guess is that it is fertile ground for a strong independent to take any new seat created there.


Their central platform to run on would simply be upgrading the SC line and rail to Maroochydore. There is huge support for that. There would

not only be the advantage of running for a seat that has nobody defending it (due to being new) but also and absolute advantage on

credibility. EVEN IF red and blue team promised SC line upgrades, they have promised it so many times before in the past that nobody would

actually believe that this time around they would actually deliver it. So I think that the door is WIDE OPEN there.

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Stillwater

#4166
Oh dear! More twists and turns for CRR as the state government works to adjust the BCR:

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/cross-river-rail-a-54b-train-wreck/news-story/c5f2479aca88f372451fb638dfe040ee

If this lot are cooking the books, IA will go through their Business Case like a dose of salts.  Maybe that was the big gamble in the last week of the election campaign - manoeuvre the Coalition and Labor into committing funding for CRR, with the politicians over-riding any recommendation IA might make, with IA cut out of the picture due to the late lodgement of the Business Case.   :fp:

ozbob

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ozbob

#4168
All we have left is a vague chance at bus network reform and a toy metro.

Well done Queensland, fukwits!

If I was 30 years younger I would be gone from this moribund state.  It is rooted!!

Go and have a look at Sydney and Melbourne you young things.  Massive construction efforts happening, interesting and exciting.  They are placing themselves well for the future.  Brisbane is going to drown in bus jam and mediocrity toast.

There seems little point in pushing for projects here that the Government is just politicising and corrupting.  The performance with the SCL is a shocker of the first degree.

The plot from here is the money they have ' put aside ' for CRR should be redirected to signalling, SCL upgrade and extension of Springfield Central to Ripley. 

Work up a real metro, CRR is never going to fly.  At least BCC might chip in for a real metro.

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ozbob

Sent to all outlets:

11th July 2016

CRR dead duck Re: Brisbane: Start Fixing Bus Network with Five Point Plan

Good Morning,

So ...  Cross River Rail a $5.4b train wreck > http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/news-story/c5f2479aca88f372451fb638dfe040ee

Have to agree sadly.

All we have left is a vague chance at bus network reform and a toy metro.

Well done Queensland!

If I was 30 years younger I would be gone from this moribund state.  It is rooted!!

Go and have a look at Sydney and Melbourne you young things.  Massive construction efforts happening, interesting and exciting.  They are placing themselves well for the future.

Brisbane is going to drown in bus jam and mediocrity toast.

There seems little point in pushing for projects here that the Government is just politicising and corrupting.  The performance with the Sunshine Coast Line is also a shocker of the first degree.

The plot from here is the money they have ' put aside ' for CRR should be redirected to signalling, SCL upgrade and extension of Springfield Central to Ripley railway.

Work up a real metro, CRR is never going to fly by itself.  At least BCC might chip in for a real metro if combined with CRR.

Good luck Brisbane, you are going to need it.

Have a great day!

Robert Dow
Administration
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ozbob

QLD infrastructure's theme song ..

:P



:fp: :fp: :fp:
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#Metro

#4171
Reality is the only reliable foundation that one can build on.
Anybody can 'plan' anything in fantasy / public relations land. It does not mean that the substance will follow from that.
Lord Mayor Graham Quirk is learning that lesson - A metro is stupid project if it degrades busway capacity. DUMB!! :fp:

I pointed out that the CRR BCR was nonsense. A P50 value, it was obvious that the actual 'real world' cost of the project was much higher, and thus the BCR much lower.

So now they have effectively cancelled the project because they pumped up the BCR etc.
Infrastructure Australia is going to do their own assessment, and it is not looking good.
I do not agree with WEBS (Wider Economic Benefits). I regard it as "filler".

Take "development opportunities", for example. The purpose of transport is to move people, so this is "bonus other stuff".
If that Woolloongabba land were simply rezoned to be the same as that of the CBD, there would also be a massive development on
that site. Just look across the road, huge apartment complexes are already there. CRR did not cause that.

So to find out the bit the rail project "caused" you would have to subtract that from the scenario of rail + development. The fact
that a busway is already there and that also has PT benefits will reduce the development benefits of opening a station there in
the calculations.

I know I will sound bad because it's not sounding enthusiastic, but one has to tell it like it is. I consider the WEBS, particularly relating
to the Woolloongabba site "development benefits" complete hocus-pocus. Development there will happen there anyway with or without rail, provided that it is zoned properly. Whatever benefits there are are likely to be marginal, or capped by the zoning ultimately chosen.

As I have said - The project that they have proposed had something critical deleted from it. The CRR1 project has excellent BCR and NPV, which means high benefits for society. CRR2 (BaT) and CRR3's business case numbers only went downhill from there. Yes, those projects are "cheaper", but they are also nastier. CRR1 remains the best project to build, unless someone comes up with something better.

Well, what will happen now? Smoke and mirrors I guess. Use Malcolm Turnbull as a blame donkey. Lose office so that whatever you promised gets deleted and starts afresh. That's what they did in Victoria, premier resigned and the "rail to Melbourne Airport / Doncaster / Avalon Airport/Rowville/everywhere" evaporated. I reckon that's what LM Quirk will do also - gracefully retire and hitting the reset button on the metro, thereby having not to deliver it at all.

None of the people in the Queensland Government appear to be taking responsibility for their diabolical political performance. The money and assets to secure loans against is there to build these projects.

Can someone PLEASE run for office.
Negative people... have a problem for every solution. Posts are commentary and are not necessarily endorsed by RAIL Back on Track or its members.

ozbob

Both the Queensland ALP and LNP are an embarrassment.  The Queensland Greens do have some measure on good transport policy but it is unlikely to see the light of day with the clowns that abound on George St.


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BrizCommuter

Is this new business case public yet?

ozbob

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#Metro

It looks like the CM already got a hold of it!!

Honestly, this idea of releasing 'the summary' of the business case and not the whole business case is just part of the games.

What kind of Government only releases "the summary". Just think about how suspect that sounds.

To have a summary, the actual document must itself be complete. So they have the full document.

We are expected to believe that Jackie Trad et al 'did not have enough time to read it'. REALLY??

I don't believe it.

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Stillwater

It would seem that the Courier-Mail has got hold of the full business case -- good for them.  The paper had a duty to do so, given the way Jackie Trad and Co. have managed this (releasing just a summary that, like the glossy brochure and the fly-through video, focussed on the sizzle, not the sausage.)

Ms Trad has said that all levels of government, and the private sector, will need to get behind CRR if it is to work.  The private sector wants to see the 'value capture' assumptions, and its highly sceptical.  And everyone wants to know about the new 'betterment tax' or whatever you want to call it.  Will the government want to capture too much of the associated benefits of CRR flowing from the project to surrounding development.  The newspaper story will confirm their fears that they are not being told the full story.

To keep this project alive, the government has no choice but to release the Business Case for CRR.  Not to do so will allow the Courier-Mail to keep the story going over several days, quoting chunks of the report.  No doubt, governments PR people will be preparing talking points for MPs, the Opposition is doing the same for its side, with a press conference scheduled for today or tomorrow.  The whole farce of CRR flares up again.

Because we don't have other business cases prepared (like that for the SCL), we have nothing to compare this wafer-thin BCR with.  We should be able to ask ourselves 'how can we best spend our available dollars?'  Currently, we have $800m on the table.  Queensland has tried to control the release of BCRs for major infrastructure projects to Canberra precisely because it does not want the Federal Government/IA to make these comparisons.

But put yourself in the shoes of the IA assessors.  If the CRR benefit-cost-ratio is 95c for $1 spent, or even $1.06, there is likely to be cheaper projects in other states with a BCR that's greater.  IA will conclude we are better off as a country to invest our money there.  IA has responsibility for investing across the country, irrespective of state boundaries.

Queensland needs to push through proper business cases for other projects, such as extension of the Springfield Line and the SCL duplication, so that when IA knocks back CRR funding requests, or queries the figures, Queensland is able to say ' well here are some other projects with higher BCR's that you might like to fund in Queensland.'

Jackie Trad is the person who has gone to the IA lolly shop wanting an all-day sucker, but with only enough money and bargaining power to buy one hundreds-and-thousands.

#Metro

It is possible IA will reject the proposal. Just depends if it is a "soft" or "hard" reject.

If we go along that line, then hey, even Quack Metro would get built.

The project has been butchered. Something was removed from the proposals that sent the benefits tanking.

Dust off the CRR1 proposal. What would the costs of that be recalculated to today?

I guess CRR1 won't be possible because QLD Gov has the casino site now, which throws a spanner in the works.

Honestly, we need bus reform ASAP. CRR is going to be quite a while, if ever, and relief is needed now.
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ozbob

I was thinking much the same Mr Stillwater.  The business case must be made available for all to read immediately.  A failure to do that condemns the project and the Government to oblivion no doubt.

I wonder who dropped a copy off to the CM?   The Government ??  :P
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ozbob

It is possible that the business case for CRR is actually a bit better than what the CM is suggesting.  They may have been leaked ' selective out of context ' material not necessarily the whole publication.

Hopefully there will be some clarification from the Government today.
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#Metro

QuoteI wonder who dropped a copy off to the CM?   The Government ??

Oh look, an accidentally-on-purpose leak!!

If it is good enough for CM, it is good enough for all to read. The election is over anyway. Malcolm is PM.
Negative people... have a problem for every solution. Posts are commentary and are not necessarily endorsed by RAIL Back on Track or its members.

ozbob

I am not going to waste any more time on CRR #3.  It is up to Government to act to deliver it from here.  If it sinks, so be it.

The only things achievable realistically now are some bus network improvements.  Fares are sorted provided the present Government manages to survive till next January.   :P

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#Metro

QuoteFares are sorted provided the present Government manages to survive till next January.

What are the chances blue team are already cooking up a plan to undermine it. Free PT on Friday or some other gimmick to undercut??
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ozbob

Nope.  I think the LNP now realise that gimmicks don't fly in the end.  Emerson's weak efforts sure did cost them in the end.
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mufreight

Once again the politicians are throwing up smoke to avoid doing anything.
The obvious to blind Fredy answer is the simplest one.
Build to the original CRR 1 but to remove the gold plating make the southern portal between Dutton Park and Fairfield making provision to extend the tunnel to Yeeroongpilly at a later date.
The sale/lease of air rights at Woolongabba and Mary Street would cover the costs of construction at both of those stations which would help the business case a bit.

SurfRail

Quote from: mufreight on July 11, 2016, 10:13:26 AMThe sale/lease of air rights at Woolongabba and Mary Street would cover the costs of construction at both of those stations which would help the business case a bit.

Much as I would like this to be true, it really isn't.  I suspect you would be doing well to get around 10% of the construction cost of the station back from a developer. 

You can reclaim it with ongoing levies over time, but certainly not upfront on a sale.  Nobody is going to pay several hundred million for a site when they can pick a site elsewhere in the inner city which doesn't have that premium attached to it.
Ride the G:

ozbob

" crickets "

:fp:

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow now Brisbane, Queensland

Any response re CRR @StirlHinchliffe @AnnastaciaMP ?? Is the beat up true then ? #qldpol
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ozbob

Sent to all outlets:

11th July 2016

Re: CRR dead duck Re: Brisbane: Start Fixing Bus Network with Five Point Plan

Greetings,

It is only fair and reasonable that the Queensland citizens be afforded access to the full business case for Cross River Rail.

If a copy can be leaked to the Courier Mail, surely it is reasonable for it to be made available publicly?

What is there to hide?

Best wishes
Robert

Robert Dow
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Quote from: ozbob on July 11, 2016, 03:17:18 AM
Sent to all outlets:

11th July 2016

CRR dead duck Re: Brisbane: Start Fixing Bus Network with Five Point Plan

Good Morning,

So ...  Cross River Rail a $5.4b train wreck > http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/news-story/c5f2479aca88f372451fb638dfe040ee

Have to agree sadly.

All we have left is a vague chance at bus network reform and a toy metro.

Well done Queensland!

If I was 30 years younger I would be gone from this moribund state.  It is rooted!!

Go and have a look at Sydney and Melbourne you young things.  Massive construction efforts happening, interesting and exciting.  They are placing themselves well for the future.

Brisbane is going to drown in bus jam and mediocrity toast.

There seems little point in pushing for projects here that the Government is just politicising and corrupting.  The performance with the Sunshine Coast Line is also a shocker of the first degree.

The plot from here is the money they have ' put aside ' for CRR should be redirected to signalling, SCL upgrade and extension of Springfield Central to Ripley railway.

Work up a real metro, CRR is never going to fly by itself.  At least BCC might chip in for a real metro if combined with CRR.

Good luck Brisbane, you are going to need it.

Have a great day!

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

[ Attached: http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=11047.msg176376#msg176376 ]
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Stillwater

The politics has worked to 'park' CRR.  That's where it should sit for the time being.  The politicians have wanted to control this.  They do.  Normal thinking and reasoned logic don't apply under such circumstances.  The average person's role in the political process is to exercise a vote.  We should do so wisely come the next state election.

verbatim9

Even though it may not meet calculated targets Re: cost based ratio? It has the potential of private regeneration of areas and employment oppotunities with new businesses opening up around stations and the construction of those businesses. E.g. I suspect that Westfield Helensvale will do well with Light rail Stage 2 completion.

#Metro

#4190
QuoteEven though it may not meet calculated targets Re: cost based ratio?

I would love to do this, but the moment you throw out the assessment because it didn't say what you wanted, you enter very dangerous territory where pretty much anything goes. Using the same arguments, Townsville Stadium got funding and you could also possibly justify Quirk Metro etc.

Disagreeing with the assessment is fine, but then you have to show that it was wrong somehow.

It is doubtful that there is an access improvement at the Woolloongabba site because there is already a busway station there that already provides those 'benefits'. So to include them in CRR at that site would be double counting IMHO.

There was a large drop in the value of benefits post-CRR1. CRR1 was a good project even without including the "bonus other stuff".

Cross River Rail (CRR1)
Net Present Value (2010) - $2.3 Billion in benefits; Cost-Benefit Ratio of 1.42 rising to 1.63 with WEBs.

To put this into perspective - the current proposal has $0.9 BN ($2015) in benefits. (Excluding WEBs)
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SurfRail

I strongly suspect the cost of adding extra platforms to all the stations from Salisbury to Dutton Park is a factor.
Ride the G:

#Metro

QuoteI strongly suspect the cost of adding extra platforms to all the stations from Salisbury to Dutton Park is a factor.

This is a good point. Likely other things also. If you compare CRR1 to CRR3, the benefits have been cut in half. That's a massive drop!!
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mufreight

The sale of air rights has worked in Sydney with developers forking out for rebuilds of rail infrastructure and ongoing leasing fees on the leases that run for lengthy periods so why can this source of funding be used here.

ozbob

Various scenarios from here as I see it.

1.  Qld Government manages to get business case evaluated by IA and some funding achieved. Political reality bites and bulk of the money is found through value capture, rates,  loans and asset leases. Project proceeds.

2.  Business case flops.  Project remains in limbo.  (What's new?).

3.  State election:  LNP victorious.  They scrap CRR and support the metro.  CRR is seen as a red project, despite blue supporting it on and off for years.  At this point Brisbane's & SEQ's future public transport is well and truly ruined of course.  But hey, does anyone really care besides us?  It's polyticks!

4.  State election: ALP victorious.  CRR goes to iteration number 6 or 7 ....

Meanwhile bus jam in Brisbane just worsens.   ALP and LNP both lack the courage to fix it.  They are morally as weak as p%ss sadly.

" We don't need network reform, but we do need a metro hey? "

:bg:

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SurfRail

Quote from: mufreight on July 11, 2016, 17:18:12 PM
The sale of air rights has worked in Sydney with developers forking out for rebuilds of rail infrastructure and ongoing leasing fees on the leases that run for lengthy periods so why can this source of funding be used here.

It certainly can (and should) be used - no argument from me.  All I'm saying is selling the land for development alone is only going to pay for a fraction of the cost of building a station underneath. 

It's the long term value created in the units the developer builds that the state needs to tap into, not what the developer pays to get the site under control.  That needs to be captured back through rates and land tax over an extended period (something the existing system is generally poor at achieving).  In the interim, somebody has to pay the piper up front to actually dig a cavity, fit it out and then make good so a developer can build something on top.

The developer is out of the picture in only a few years.  For large-scale projects like what we are talking about here, the margins really aren't that huge, and if the market takes a turn you run the risk of going under because a big stack of your purchasers can no longer complete their contracts.  Far be it from me to tell sob stories on developers' behalf in my own time (I do get paid for it on the clock of course), but they aren't the real cash cows.
Ride the G:

#Metro

I agree with SurfRail.

The Greens are likely to come up with some reason to oppose development on that site, or at least severely restrict it (mark my words). I am just waiting for someone to jump out and say that the entire area needs to be a park.

The other issue is that land and air rights are an asset. So leasing it or selling to a developer is ... drumroll... a "privatisation" of a public asset for private commercial developer profit.




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SurfRail

Quote from: ozbob on July 11, 2016, 17:26:01 PM
Various scenarios from here as I see it.

1.  Qld Government manages to get business case evaluated by IA and some funding achieved. Political reality bites and bulk of the money is found through value capture, rates,  loans and asset leases. Project proceeds.

2.  Business case flops.  Project remains in limbo.  (What's new?).

3.  State election:  LNP victorious.  They scrap CRR and support the metro.  CRR is seen as a red project, despite blue supporting it on and off for years.  At this point Brisbane's & SEQ's future public transport is well and truly ruined of course.  But hey, does anyone really care besides us?  It's polyticks!

4.  State election: ALP victorious.  CRR goes to iteration number 6 or 7 ....

Meanwhile bus jam in Brisbane just worsens.   ALP and LNP both lack the courage to fix it.  They are morally as weak as p%ss sadly.

" We don't need network reform, but we do need a metro hey? "

:bg:

As I've said many times, despite the complete replication of lack of attention to basic issues with the bus network down here*, we at least have the advantage of having our most important 2 rail issues now currently being solved.  GCLR extension to the border will be essential over time and will do very well, but we are not exactly at a point where the system is grinding to a halt without it.  Likewise the extension south from Varsity Lakes.  I don't envy Brisbane.

(* Disclaimer - I am currently at my desk in Queen St in the city!)
Ride the G:

verbatim9

#4198
I dont there should be parks around a station, creates loitering. (Medium Density Trees, Landscaping Water Features Ok). There should also be Offices, Apartments, Supermarkets, Cafes, Small format bars and Food Outlets.

Derwan

Quote from: Stillwater on July 11, 2016, 15:17:21 PM
The politics has worked to 'park' CRR.  That's where it should sit for the time being.  The politicians have wanted to control this.  They do.  Normal thinking and reasoned logic don't apply under such circumstances.  The average person's role in the political process is to exercise a vote.  We should do so wisely come the next state election.

You're right! Politics has effectively stalled this project.  In 2013, the federal government offered Queensland $715 million for CRR1, which was exactly what Queensland asked for.  But for some unexplained reason, the LNP refused it and decided to completely scrap the shovel-ready and funded project for some bat-brained idea.

Then after the unexpected election win in early 2015, Queensland Labor had the perfect opportunity to put a new funding request to the Federal Government in time for it to become an election issue.  Instead, they take far too long to produce the business case and finally release it in the middle of the election campaign when neither side had a chance to properly assess it and genuinely commit to any kind of funding.

So once again CRR will be confined to the backburner until it goes through the IA process again.  With any luck we might get some sort of funding commitment in the lead-up to the next federal election in 3 years.
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