Cross River Rail Project

[#Metro]

I think there is a pattern, but perhaps not along party lines. Only a tentative thought at this stage.

There did seem to be more leadership changes and general instability from 2005 onwards no matter where one looked.

[ozbob]

CRR has as much chance of happening as does mining green cheese on the moon ...

I aim fairly confident that CRR #3 may be such a compromise that it might be best if doesn't proceed in such a flawed configuration. In any case I really doubt if there will be deliverable funds in the end.

The non-completion of the business case is a real clue to the State Governments true position. Been plenty time to do it. Delivering the business case in the shadows of the Federal election is a typical Labor ploy to look as though they are doing something, but in reality guaranteeing failure and non delivery.

In any case, moulah will be scarcer than rocking-horse faeces ...

Sydney Morning Herald --> Treasury update could wipe billions from budget ahead of treasurers' debate

... A sharply lower iron ore price is expected to wipe billions of dollars from budget projections, forcing both sides of politics to rein in promises when the official pre-election economic update is released on Friday.

The official update, prepared by the departments of finance and treasury, is unique in that it is signed by the two departmental heads without input from their ministers. It will be followed by a debate between the Treasurer, Scott Morrison, and Labor's treasury spokesman, Chris Bowen, expected in the next few weeks. ...

[#Metro]

.. A sharply lower iron ore price is expected to wipe billions of dollars from budget projections, forcing both sides of politics to rein in promises when the official pre-election economic update is released on Friday.

The borrowing costs for the project would be the lowest ever. It would be like having a home loan with almost no monthly interest payment!

Low steel price = cheap iron for the tracks!

[ozbob]

 

[#Metro]

AP can't deliver Cross River Rail, and Quirk can't deliver Quack Metro.

I guess that leaves... bus reform!

So very glad that Bus Reform was designed to survive extreme budget / political conditions.

Cost neutral!!

[ozbob]

Doing the simple things is beyond them ...   

Exhibit A:


https://brisbanedevelopment.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/IMG_4396.jpg

[ozbob]

So we await the grand pressers, no doubt on high at Kangaroo Point, waxing lyrical about Cross River Rail and how wonderful it will all be.

Grouse  ....   

[ozbob]

Keep the faith!

Campbell Newman Announces Cross River Rail Project Is A Major Priority

13 July 2012 ! 

[James]

Everything that came after Bob Carr was a mess!
The situation mirrored in Queensland as well with Beattie. Everything that came after him was also a mess!
Same thing at the Federal level. Anything after Howard was a mess!

Is there a pattern here?

What changed? Potential theory is the rise of social media and the spin cycle. Facebook etc did not arrive until around 2007-2008, twitter etc.

I think there's a pattern starting in around 2009-10, the major things being:
- A shortening in the national attention span (starting with social media and the original Netflix & Spill with Kevin and Julia)
- General economic downturn - money isn't flowing in like it used to, times are hard and people are assuming kicking out the government makes everything better
2005 wasn't really the start of a lot of the rot, using NSW as an example wasn't a great one due to the institutional corruption which had been haunting the ALP in its dying days.

You've also got the issue that the Libs have framed the debate for so long that the concept of raising debt or taxes has become toxic. It has really made it difficult for anybody to fund anything well, anywhere. Whether this is good for the nation in the longer-term (particularly as we pull out of recession) remains to be seen. For a few projects in particular though (CRR), this is not a good outcome.

[Stillwater]

I suppose we will just have to wait until interest rates go up to 7 and 8 per cent -- when we can really afford CRR.

[tazzer9]

The only reason it won't happen is because the media in QLD doesn't grill politicians on public transport issues.  In NSW and Victoria, there are newspaper articles and TV segments nearly everyday with regards to public transport, both with good, bad and neutral positions. 
In victoria they are always going on about how many carriages can be supplied for regional services. (which is going to be our case in only a few months)
Sydney they are always railing on about intercity train, overcrowding on the blue mountains line.  The media is always interested in new train procurement and if it the best value for money and if it will be enough to service their needs. 

meanwhile in qld, nothing. 

[Stillwater]

The state government (both sides) has sought to play the politics of CRR ruthlessly.  It has backfired on them, repeatedly.  State Labor continues to play the politics of CRR, proposing to 'dump' a very complex business case on Infrastructure Australia and calling for an overnight, quick and dirty analysis/decision.  They might have even clued their federal Labor mates to promise something towards construction costs, if only to paint the Coalition in a bad light.  One can imagine Bill Shorten's line for the day -- "Labor is fair dinkum about CRR and has pledged $100 million to get the planning and outstanding land acquisitions started.  Where is Malcolm Turnbull on CRR?  He is Malcolm in the Middle, always wanting to be seen catching trains, but never wanting to fund them.  Labor builds, Malcolm Turnbull just buys a ticket."  Blah Blah -- you can imagine the drivel over this.

The real test will come when the CRR business case is released at the 11th hour, a few days before 2 July.  If it is the hard-nosed, thorough matter-of-fact document expected from the bureaucracy, then it won't have politicians' fingerprints over it.  If it is peppered with political rhetoric, then it will show the extent to which the bureaucracy has been cynically manipulated by a highly politically active Minister.

If, as is highly probable, governments can't swallow the billions of dollars it will cost to build CRR, and the project languishes, the project that could benefit then becomes the SCL duplication (about $600 million to Landsborough North).  But the government would have stuffed things again, because it is only now scrambling to have the CRR business case finished by July.  The SCL duplication business case is a further 12 months away.

It is anyone's guess as to why Queensland doesn't present a suite of business cases to the federal government for a range of infrastructure projects in much the same way as Colgate-Palmolive or Unilever offer a range of soap powders and toothpaste lines across the price spectrum, from cheap to expensive products with added whiteners and brighteners.  Whatever your budget, they make money out of the shopper.

Queensland tends to run things like a restaurant with a cranky chef -- no menu and you get what's prepared out back.  In this case, the menu offering is the Townville Stadium, where the return on investment is 21c in the dollar.  There is a war of wills between the diner (the feds) and the chef (Qld Government).  'Eat' says the chef, 'no' says the diner.  "Haven't you got anything more palatable and representative of value-for-money?"  Much clashing of pans and smells from the kitchen as another meal is prepared (CRR) to prevent the customer walking away.  An appetising meal (SCL duplication) remains unmade,

How much easier it would be if the State Government prepared a series of good business cases for major infrastructure projects -- a smorgasbord -- instead of trying to manipulate the order of works according to Labor's political promises.  The question has to be asked -- why should Malcolm Turnbull have to fund a project that Anna Palaszczuk said she would provide to the people of Townsville (the stadium)?  If the diner (the feds)  looks unfavourably upon the CRR dish with parsley garnish, he/she could be hankering for a good steak and veges (SCL duplication), but will have to wait a bit more until Chef Anna gets the kitchen in order.

* Coincidentally, Malcolm Turnbull is in Townsville and has announced $150m in federal funds for a rail line upgrade to the Port of Townsville.  (Although, it will cost $900m to build.)  Clever move -- it probably represents better value for money than the stadium and allows the pressure to be directed back on State Labor to fund the entire cost of the stadium it promised.  If I was the Mayor of Townsville, I would be thanking the PM for his commitment and calling upon Anna Palaszczuk to hurry up and start building that stadium she promised.  Outcome in prospect: Townsville gets a stadium AND a better rail connection to the port.  Bargain.

https://www.railpage.com.au/f-p2015244.htm


 

[ozbob]

The State Government effectively wasted a year, doing nothing at all.  Rushing now to a business case is all part of the show.

We can see it, others can as well.  It is a charade sadly.  I have lost confidence in the state government.  Fare review is stalled, they lack the fortitude and integrity to address the bus mess or tackle BCC.  I don't think the LNP are any better by the way.   

I will be surprised if they see out this year actually.

[kram0]

It's just a stalling tactic as they don't have a clue or any funds to deliver such a project, and they would look stupid to borrow more money in the eyes of the public. Such short term thinking. It's time for Anna2 to Fu@k off and let someone run this great state that has a vision!! While Campbell was definitely NOT perfect, he had ideas to take the state forward.

[petey3801]

and they would look stupid to borrow more money in the eyes of the public.

And herein lies a major problem. With interest rates as they are, now is the perfect time for borrowing for items such as CRR and NCL. Unfortunately, the media and the LNP/Liberals in particular have pushed the 'no debt, debt is baaaaaaad' line so hard that everyone now believes it, no matter what the real facts actually are.

[tazzer9]

People need to learn that personal debt is different to corporate debt which is different to government debt. 
Government debt is needed for the world economy to function.  Government debt is NOT the same as personal debt, they are so different they should have different words

[Stillwater]

The debt we will rack up is the increasing cost of congestion in Brisbane -- represented by the inefficiency of the city to operate, the pollution heading to the atmosphere from cars idling in traffic and the cost to society of people not being able to access new jobs.  This debt is very real.

[#Metro]

People need to learn that personal debt is different to corporate debt which is different to government debt. 
Government debt is needed for the world economy to function.  Government debt is NOT the same as personal debt, they are so different they should have different words

The two are related. However, not all government expenditure is worthwhile expenditure (i.e. Townsville Stadium).
The private and public sectors could be given an identical project, and each would come up with different numbers for BCR and NPV because private firms look at private costs/benefits, whereas gov't also must look at total social costs as well.

Generally, I think gov't should specialise doing things that would be difficult to deliver in another way. Expensive PT infrastructure funded by land tax etc, is one example. A company would have a very hard time replicating that unless they also owned the entire train network like MTR does.

Gov't balance sheets aren't bottomless (i.e. Greece etc) and it is zero sum - whatever the gov takes and spends is less money for people who paid taxes to it.

Returning to topic, the rock bottom interest rates makes it absolutely insane not to take advantage of the cheap cost of borrowing for large long term infrastructure projects like CRR, Sunshine Coast line etc and lock it in with a long-term gov't bond.

[newbris]

It's just a stalling tactic as they don't have a clue or any funds to deliver such a project, and they would look stupid to borrow more money in the eyes of the public. Such short term thinking. It's time for Anna2 to Fu@k off and let someone run this great state that has a vision!! While Campbell was definitely NOT perfect, he had ideas to take the state forward.

Campbell had ideas to take the state backward. He executed CRR.

[BrizCommuter]

It's just a stalling tactic as they don't have a clue or any funds to deliver such a project, and they would look stupid to borrow more While Campbell was definitely NOT perfect, he had ideas to take the state forward.

Are you serious? Is your surname Nicholls?

His government screwed up the public service and health by random sackings example 1 - his government disbanded statewide telehealth, sacked all of the knowledgable staff, then half a year or so later, setup a statewide telehealth service. But all the knowledge had gone elsewhere. Example 2 - his government privatise Rockhampton medical imaging, so now patient data is on a different information system to the rest of the state, making things worse for patients.

The BaT thought bubble delayed to CRR by at least 4 years.

His government delayed the 15 minute off-peak by 1.5 years.

The Newman Government was the most destructive government Queensland has ever seen.

[tazzer9]

Kram0, we get that you are fundamentally right wing and nothing will change that. But look at facts, as premier, newman took this state backwards.   As Lord Mayor, he wasn't great but he wasn't bad.  He should have retired as mayor.

[kram0]

Kram0, we get that you are fundamentally right wing and nothing will change that. But look at facts, as premier, newman took this state backwards.   As Lord Mayor, he wasn't great but he wasn't bad.  He should have retired as mayor.

You are correct I vote Liberal 85% of the time, but have voted labor in the past. I also agree Neeman was not perfect but if you think he took this state backwards then Anna2 is only driving us in that same direction at a much faster pace!! She is useless.

[#Metro]

You are correct I vote Liberal 85% of the time, but have voted labor in the past. I also agree Neeman was not perfect but if you think he took this state backwards then Anna2 is only driving us in that same direction at a much faster pace!! She is useless.

I actually do not mind who votes for who.
Anybody is allowed to vote for anyone.

Newman had a good run in local gov't. I guess people were hoping to see that repeated at the State level, but somehow things got sidetracked with political posturing and 'virtue signalling' toughness. For example, he was going to put bikies in pink jail jumpsuits. What was the purpose of that?

No new transport infrastructure was built as a result of Blue Team's 3-year term in office. Bus review was made into a royal mess.

For some reason, and I wrote about this earlier, anyone who became premier after Peter Beattie retired seemed to create a mess in public office and not recover.

[Stillwater]

State Labor is about to perpetrate another con on the people of Queensland concerning the submission of the business case for Cross River Rail MkIII to Infrastructure Australia.  Labor will have us believe that the submission of the long-overdue and delayed CRR business case before the federal election on July 2nd will give the Coalition Government in Canberra sufficient time to study the contents and make a commitment to fund the project before the ballot papers are counted.

This is pure nonsense.

Public Servants, including those working for Infrastructure Australia are bound by the Caretaker Conventions that apply after the declaration of the writs that dissolve Parliament.  During the time between the writs being declared and the outcome of the election, public servants keep the machinery of government turning over, but they do not provide advice to government in the way they would when a government is in power.  They do not make new, major decisions.

IA would not be able to make an assessment of Queensland's CRR submission.  Any commitment to the project by either side of politics will be considered an 'election promise'.  The public servants will be noting each of the statements by the major political parties and will be toting up the costs.

A few days after the new Ministry is appointed, heads of department meet with the new minister and plonk before him/her the list of election promises, explain the parlous state of the finances and suggests ways the money for the promises made can be raised.  That is when the blood drains from Ministers' faces – they realise they have not been playing the election campaign with monopoly money.

Don't believe State Labor when it says that IA should be able to assess the CRR business case, in all its complexity, in a day or two, or even a week or fortnight.  It will be more political theatre.  Shouting SHOW US THE MONEY won't work either.  More theatre.

From Wiki:

Caretaker provisions explicitly recognise that after the dissolution of parliament, the business of government must continue and that "ordinary matters of administration" must be addressed.[1] Provisions allow for the normal operations of all government departments. However, the caretaker conventions impose some restrictions on the conduct of the caretaker government. The conventions broadly include the following:

The Government will cease taking major policy decisions except on urgent matters and then only after formal consultation with the Opposition. The conventions apply to the making of decisions, not to their announcement. Accordingly, the conventions are not infringed if decisions made before dissolution are announced during the caretaker period. However, when possible, decisions would normally be announced ahead of dissolution.

The Government will cease making major appointments of public officials but may make acting or short-term appointments.

The Government will avoid entering major contracts or undertakings during the caretaker period. If it is not possible to defer the commitment until after the caretaker period for legal, commercial or other reasons, a minister could consult the Opposition, or agencies could deal with the contractor and ensure that contracts include clauses providing for termination in the event of an incoming government not wishing to proceed. Similar provisions cover tendering.

The Government ordinarily seeks to defer such major international negotiations, or adopts observer status until the end of the caretaker period.

The Australian Public Service adopts a neutral stance while continuing to advise the Government. There are several cases, notably the pricing of Opposition election promises, in which the APS conducts an investigation and report for the benefit of the electorate at large.

[#Metro]

Hello Stillwater,

You write really well.

Please consider submitting this to a newspaper, or for MR consideration.

It would be a shame if your views were confined to just this site.

LD.

[ozbob]

^ it will be noted ... lol

Again this just confirms the hopeless performance by our State Government by sitting on the business case and doing not much for a year or so. A heroic rush now will achieve little in the reality space but some in the political space will swallow the cr%p.

As I see it these are the essential scenarios from here.

Lib win Fed Election -  CRR languishes

Lab win Fed Election - CRR languishes

LNP win state election - CRR languishes

LAB win state election - CRR languishes

Both QLD LNP and ALP are grossly incompetent, are political grand-standers and have no real direction.

The best outcome possible in the sea of mediocrity  is coalition governments at State and Federal level that are coalitions between ALP or L/NP and Greens.  Greens are the only mob that have any grasp on the transport crisis that we face as a state and nation.

More of the same will deliver more of the same - failure.

This is reality.

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

20th May 2016

The Cross River Rail Business Case con ...

Good Morning,

It is a sad fact that the business case for Cross River Rail is still not complete.  This is a real disappointment considering the Palaszczuk Government indicated in March 2015 that CRR was a priority.

Is it really their priority if the business case is still not done?

In  our opinion State Labor is about to perpetrate another con on the people of Queensland concerning the submission of the business case for Cross River Rail MkIII to Infrastructure Australia.  Labor will have us believe that the submission of the long-overdue and delayed CRR business case before the federal election on July 2nd will give the Coalition Government in Canberra sufficient time to study the contents and make a commitment to fund the project before the ballot papers are counted.

This is pure nonsense.

Public Servants, including those working for Infrastructure Australia are bound by the Caretaker Conventions that apply after the declaration of the writs that dissolve Parliament.  During the time between the writs being declared and the outcome of the election, public servants keep the machinery of government turning over, but they do not provide advice to government in the way they would when a government is in power.  They do not make new, major decisions.

IA would not be able to make an assessment of Queensland's CRR submission.  Any commitment to the project by either side of politics will be considered an 'election promise'.  The public servants will be noting each of the statements by the major political parties and will be toting up the costs.

A few days after the new Ministry is appointed, heads of department meet with the new minister and plonk before him/her the list of election promises, explain the parlous state of the finances and suggests ways the money for the promises made can be raised.  That is when the blood drains from Ministers' faces – they realise they have not been playing the election campaign with monopoly money.

We don't believe State Labor when it says that IA should be able to assess the CRR business case, in all its complexity, in a day or two, or even a week or fortnight.  It will be more political theatre.

Shouting SHOW US THE MONEY won't work either.  More theatre.

Both QLD LNP and QLD ALP are grossly incompetent, are political grand-standers and have no real direction, in our opinion.

The best outcome possible in the sea of mediocrity is coalition governments at State and Federal level that are coalitions between ALP or L/NP and Greens.  Greens are the only mob that have any grasp on the transport crisis that we face as a state and nation.

More of the same will deliver more of the same - failure.

Have a great day!

Best wishes
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

[ozbob]

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow 3 minutes ago Brisbane, Queensland

Latest: ' The Cross River Rail Business Case con '

> http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=2034.msg174284#msg174284 ... #qldpol #ausvotes #auspol

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Deal between State Government and major Korean bank could help get Queensland projects off ground

A NEW deal between the State Government and a major Korean financial institution could help get projects including Brisbane's Cross River Rail off the ground.

Deputy Premier Jackie Trad last night signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Korea Development Bank to help "unlock significant investment opportunities across Queensland, including in infrastructure, energy and natural resources".

The Courier-Mail understands Cross River Rail is one of the projects in which the bank has shown interest.

"This is the first agreement of this kind that KDB has signed with any Australian government – state or federal," Ms Trad said in a statement.

"KDB has already participated in Queensland projects as one of the lenders to the senior and subordinated debt on Wiggins Island Coal Export Terminal and through its subsidiary, KIAMCO (KDB Infrastructure Investment Asset Management Company), as an investor in the Millmerran Power Station.

"Officiating this partnership between Queensland and KDB will not only build upon our state's amicable relationship with South Korea, but it will also unlock even more opportunities for engagement between Korean investors and Queensland companies." ...

LOL ... a remarkable coincidence of timing hey?

[#Metro]

The Courier-Mail understands Cross River Rail is one of the projects in which the bank has shown interest.

What does that mean? Development bank? Is this foreign financial aid to help the Qld Gov out?

CRR is loss-making infrastructure - the private sector will not invest because there is no profit in it.

Alternative is to do the whole 'availability payments' thing - which I think I think is going to be complex for a central core of the

rail network like QR. Who is going to be in the QR control centre - QR or a private company pulling the signals and lights etc?

Availability payments = future debt stream to the gov't that they must pay off over time. It's basically renting the tunnel off a

company.

[ozbob]

 

[ozbob]

Cross River Rail actually saves a lot of Government money - hence citizens money,  that would otherwise be burnt on more roads and ever worsening congestion, road trauma, worsening health outcomes and the like,  but that is a whole of economy issue.  Seen in isolation it is not like a toll road per se.  Car drivers have no appreciation of the massive subsidies that the community has to stump up for road transport. It is considerably more than public transport.  This is the fundamental reason why successful large cities have well developed public and active transport options, not car dependency.  Brisbane is not a successful city IMHO.

The problem we have is that there is no real appreciation of the big picture, hence more costly failure. This is why the present transport paradigm is an ever escalating cascade to economic failure and terminal gridlock.

You're welcome!

[#Metro]

Cross River Rail actually saves a lot of Government money - hence citizens money

Yes, this is what I mean by gov't and private sectors having identical projects and arriving at different BCRs, NPVs etc.

Basically, they see costs and benefits differently because they are concerned about different things.


A classic example is a cigarette company. It exists to maximise sales and profit - so it has as many people smoking as much as possible.

The dollars come rolling in and the company wants to expand production because it makes more money.


A gov't would see the same thing and see red ink everywhere - lost days at work, health costs, people dying etc. these are the social costs.

In terms of CRR, with interest rates approaching zero, it makes total sense to publicly finance it.

[SurfRail]

The Courier-Mail understands Cross River Rail is one of the projects in which the bank has shown interest.

What does that mean? Development bank? Is this foreign financial aid to help the Qld Gov out?

CRR is loss-making infrastructure - the private sector will not invest because there is no profit in it.

Alternative is to do the whole 'availability payments' thing - which I think I think is going to be complex for a central core of the

rail network like QR. Who is going to be in the QR control centre - QR or a private company pulling the signals and lights etc?

Availability payments = future debt stream to the gov't that they must pay off over time. It's basically renting the tunnel off a

company.

Availability payments are perfectly feasible.  How do you think GCLR is being paid for?  Very common development in recent years, particularly with rollingstock (Waratahs, NGR sets etc).  It's just another form of borrowing but with less volatility in the level of debt.

[#Metro]

Availability payments are perfectly feasible.  How do you think GCLR is being paid for?  Very common development in recent years, particularly with rollingstock (Waratahs, NGR sets etc).  It's just another form of borrowing but with less volatility in the level of debt.

I am aware of the GC one.

But we are talking about QR here. Let's assume that the CRR tunnel for whatever reason becomes 'unavailable' due to an event (could be flooding, crash, fire, dodgy installation of track,  signal fault, trespass). What happens next?

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Korea Development Bank could fund Cross River Rail project

[ozbob]

Once upon a time, there would be counter view points (' balance ' ) to a Govt media statement.

Increasingly the MR is accepted as gospel and simply run as an article.   

[tazzer9]

But we are talking about QR here. Let's assume that the CRR tunnel for whatever reason becomes 'unavailable' due to an event (could be flooding, crash, fire, dodgy installation of track,  signal fault, trespass). What happens next?

That can be said for any major public transit system anywhere.  Our busway would shut down due to a trespasser.

[Stillwater]

^^ A consequence of the 24-hour news cycle ... the 'balance' comes in subsequent articles.  It will be interesting to see the LNP's reaction to this, especially since they are the party of free enterprise.  CRR was always going to require a private sector funding component -- perhaps the Korean dollars forms that component.  Interesting also that Brisbane Times is reporting the possibility of a levy on those property owners along the route of the CRR -- a form of betterment tax.  Presumably this would raise the interest payments for any Korean loan.

Trad's statement does not specify the interest rate at which Korean money could be borrowed, nor does she state the 'upper limit' of the line of credit.  No statement about the effects of this deal on Queensland's credit rating etc.

Will this deal allow for an immediate start on CRR, while feds digest the business case to see whether they will buy in?

Anna Palaszczuk has to come out now and state the list of projects that could be funded from this deal and just what the terms are.  Presumably the Koreans will consider each investment opportunity on a case by case basis.

No doubt the Katters will be interested in this.  They have been calling for a Queensland Development Bank.  They might get a bit xenophobic at the thought of that role being performed by an overseas, Korean entity.

[Gazza]

Availability payments are perfectly feasible.  How do you think GCLR is being paid for?  Very common development in recent years, particularly with rollingstock (Waratahs, NGR sets etc).  It's just another form of borrowing but with less volatility in the level of debt.

I am aware of the GC one.

But we are talking about QR here. Let's assume that the CRR tunnel for whatever reason becomes 'unavailable' due to an event (could be flooding, crash, fire, dodgy installation of track,  signal fault, trespass). What happens next?

What happened when an elderly driver went onto the light rail bridge and got stuck?