Cross River Rail Project

[ozbob]

^ Yo, thread on this here> http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=12141.0

Part of the Fed Election build up ...

[#Metro]

New funding method for Cross River Rail?

Long-term bonds aren't a new funding method - they are the old funding method!!

Good move nonetheless with the rock-bottom interest rates.

[SurfRail]

What's new is using the Commonwealth's borrowing power, which is greater than any of the States' and capable of attracting funding at lower rates.

[Gazza]

I think Vic's announcement to go it alone on the Metro tunnel is a bit of a game changer.
NSW and Vic have now done so, so it makes it harder for Qld to argue the point.

Of course, I think the Feds should be contributing to all the above.... But if they aren't then no point banging your head.

[kram0]

With these bonds at historically low rates the QLD government should look at the big picture and not cut any corners on CRR3. This needs to be taken south to Yerongpilly and tracks to Beenleigh triplicated to allow for future growth.

[tazzer9]

If you dont want cut corners, you want to the tunnel to exit around salisbury.  Get as much of the tunnel as far south as you can.   The northern section of the beenleigh is the good part.    With the new federal funding plan that turnbull wants you could clump other much needed projects into the one. 
On the beenleigh line only 4 projects should take place. 
GStation accessibility upgrades, another central turnback road at beenleigh, Extension of clapham passing loop, and maybe a grade separated overpass for the dual gauge line over the line to corinda.  The overpass could be part of the loop itself.   These are the only projects which would provide benefit for money, not cost billions, be realistically possible without land acquisition and would help remove freight movements over the merivale bridge.   

[ozbob]

[mufreight]

Instead of fluffing around with video promotions and glossy propaganda booklets the Minister should be starting on construction from the state budget.
A good starting point would be to build the station at the Gabba and offset the construction costs by selling the air rights for the private sector to build over the station footprint.  A building of say 15 to 20 stories with the lower levels being retail then commercial and the upper floors residential, a good money making mix that would be attractive to the private sector to build and the Government gets the station built and is seen by the man in the street to have made a start and actually done something.
As the money becomes available the work could start on the tunnels back towards Dutton Park and the connection to the existing Beenleigh/Gold Coast line.
Doing this would ramp up the pressure on the Commonwealth Government to provide some funds for the project.

[#Metro]

A good starting point would be to build the station at the Gabba and offset the construction costs by selling the air rights for the private sector to build over the station footprint.

Selling?! That's an asset sale!! 

Even if the government built the apartments itself and rented them out, that would also be public asset leasing.

[Gazza]

I think when people speak of asset sales, its major income generating assets people are worried about.

Land, equipment etc are routinely sold by government, but that's not what people worry about

[verbatim9]

At the end of the day it was a 50-50 split with in the community re Asset leases and sales. It's not like Labor won by a landslide!?

[verbatim9]

Instead of fluffing around with video promotions and glossy propaganda booklets the Minister should be starting on construction from the state budget.
A good starting point would be to build the station at the Gabba and offset the construction costs by selling the air rights for the private sector to build over the station footprint.  A building of say 15 to 20 stories with the lower levels being retail then commercial and the upper floors residential, a good money making mix that would be attractive to the private sector to build and the Government gets the station built and is seen by the man in the street to have made a start and actually done something.
As the money becomes available the work could start on the tunnels back towards Dutton Park and the connection to the existing Beenleigh/Gold Coast line.
Doing this would ramp up the pressure on the Commonwealth Government to provide some funds for the project.

Something similar to this model to fund CRR and public infrastructure?

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/construction-to-begin-on-wynnums-selffunded-library-20150218-13ikyx.html

[#Metro]

I forgot to add to my above post:
</sarcasm>

One must remember that Brisbane Transport is not income generating asset. It is an income consuming asset. It is not even Queensland Government owned.

Look at how much noise there was when de-monopolisation of the bus contracts for Brisbane was raised.

There is a lot of talk about selling assets etc. Really it is offloading one public asset so that another public asset can be bought (new rail

tunnel anyone?).

[James]

At the end of the day it was a 50-50 split with in the community re Asset leases and sales. It's not like Labor won by a landslide!?

You've just touched on something I've been tempted to say for a while. Perhaps Queenslanders only hate being lied to? Not asset sales? Perhaps LNP lost the last state election because people were sick of Campbell Newman? Perhaps we could simply raise taxes like what was suggested by the Strong Choices survey taken back in 2013/14?

[tazzer9]

I think when people speak of asset sales, its major income generating assets people are worried about.

Land, equipment etc are routinely sold by government, but that's not what people worry about

I am generally hesitant about any asset sale.   Because selling large income generating assets is generally short term gain for long term pain. 
Land I am okay with as long  they sell it for market value. (The BBC has proved this is often not the case)  Corruption is common in this area. 
When the selling large assets or equipment they never sell it for the its real value. 

Qld govt needs to sell the air rights to things like large busway and train stations.   for developers its often cheaper land to build over, and the government earns a few dollars back. 

[#Metro]

I am generally hesitant about any asset sale.   Because selling large income generating assets is generally short term gain for long term pain. 

The value of an asset is simply the sum of its future income stream (adjusted to be expressed in today's dollars).

For a fictional example, a house that rents for $300 per week, with a life of 30 years would be $300 x 52 weeks/year x 30 years = $468 000.

(NB: I have not adjusted this for the value of money now being more than later)

Assets do not have an infinite life - they need to be maintained and renewed.

If they did have infinite life, then the value of an asset would be infinite, which would make no sense.

The Economics of Money, Banking and Finance: A European Text
By P. G. A. Howells, Keith Bain
https://books.google.com/books?id=rYZmuRGt5j8C&pg=PA227&lpg=PA227

"the basic principle... is that:

the present value of an asset is equal to its future income stream (net of running costs), suitably discounted.

[tazzer9]

That is all in theory and how it should be.
Unfortunately thats not always the case in reality. eg   QR rail freight privatisation

[#Metro]

Aurizon is doing very well under new management IMHO. Hard to see how some of the decisions taken would have worked under political control.

That is all in theory and how it should be.
Unfortunately thats not always the case in reality. eg   QR rail freight privatisation

"While there are exceptions to every rule, it's also good to know the rule. In a complex world where people can be atypical in an infinite number of ways, there is great value in discovering the baseline. Knowing what happens on average is a good place to start." - Unattributed quote.

Theories are also testable. You look at a company or similar that has a sudden change/announcement that devalues its future business. The share price goes through the floor. Uber and Taxis are perhaps an example. As soon as Uber comes on the scene, the value of taxi licences went down. This is a reproducible phenomenon across different cities in different countries.

[BrizCommuter]

Will Cross River Rail be a political pawn in the federal election?
http://brizcommuter.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/cross-river-rail-federal-election-pawn.html

[ozbob]

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow 30 minutes ago Brisbane, Queensland

Brizcommuter: ' Cross River Rail - Federal Election Pawn? ' #ausvotes

http://brizcommuter.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/cross-river-rail-federal-election-pawn.html ... #qldpol #auspol

[tazzer9]

Funny thing about that particular QLD state border sign. (i'm pretty sure thats the NT/qld border one).  Is the road is absolutely terrible, narrow and potholes everywhere until you enter the Northern territory, where it immediately becomes 3m wider and the surface becomes like pacific motorway.   

[nathandavid88]

There's a similar thing visible at a carpark that straddles the border at Coolangatta/Tweed Heads. The Queensland half is nicely surfaced, the the NSW side is really rough and pocked with filled potholes (the cheap and nasty style of pothole filling). Pretty sure this can be seen on Google Maps.

[SurfRail]

It's very obvious where the Gold Coast Highway (formerly the Pacific Highway) crosses the border adjacent to Southern Cross Uni.

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

10th May 2016

RAILBoT invites the ABC's Utopia To Come to Queensland

Greetings,

RAIL Back on Track calls on Working Dog Productions to consider coming to Queensland
and doing an episode on Cross River Rail for the acclaimed ABC TV series Utopia.

After seven years, this is what the Queensland Government has come up with. Three video
animations! Not a single piece of track has been laid.

While in Queensland, perhaps they could also look at Lord Mayor Graham Quirk's 'Quack' Metro,
which we have conclusively shown would actually reduce busway capacity! Or bus reform,
which is cost neutral and proven effective overseas, but seems to be about as popular as
chickenpox at both State and Council level. Our busways are full... of half empty buses!

Videos

1.  Cross River Rail 1  >

2.  BaT (Cross River Rail 2 effectively) >

3.  Cross River Rail 3 >

Welcome to Queensland.  The land of plans!!

Best wishes
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

[#Metro]

Land of Plans = P'Land!

That's what SEQ can be called when the rest of the state (northern parts) has secession.

From Q'LD to P'LD!

We can all be Peelanders

[Stillwater]

Brisbane - the New World City - is a virtual reality Utopia.  Pick your avatar and play.

[ozbob]

Well well ....

===============

Twitter

Team Quirk ‏@Team_Quirk 4 hours ago

LM: We need rail & bus infrastructure upgrades for inner city capacity. Metro and Cross River Rail will complement each other #qt #qldpol

[#Metro]

LM: We need rail & bus infrastructure upgrades for inner city capacity. Metro and Cross River Rail will complement each other #qt #qldpol

But only if they run in the same tunnel. Lol.

Quack metro is just that - a Quack! Reduces busway capacity.

[ozbob]

Twitter

. @railbotforum invites the ABC's Utopia To Come to Qld

> http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=2034.msg173810#msg173810 ... #qldpol #auspol #ausvotes

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Brisbane rail bottleneck to cost $69b

South-east Queensland faces a $69 billion brake on the economy due to a looming transport crisis, with Brisbane CBD's sole rail bridge to reach capacity in 2021, two years before the scheduled completion of the Cross River Rail tunnel.

Transport Minister Stirling Hinchliffe laid out the looming problem on day two of the Queensland Transport Infrastructure conference at Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre on Wednesday.

"By 2021 there will be no capacity to increase our services during our busiest times and passengers will face over-crowding on platforms and trains," Mr Hinchliffe said.

"Without an effective transport system providing access to jobs in growth areas (Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Ipswich and Moreton Bay), Brisbane's economic output could be restricted by about $69 billion between 2015-2031."

Mr Hinchliffe said he understood the figures - and the timelines - were now startling.

"I can see that you see there is a problem there," he said.

"So there is clearly a looming capacity valley between 2021 and the completion of Cross River Rail in 2023."

"That looming capacity valley is of major concern to me as Minister for Transport and is of great concern for the Palaszczuk government."

He urged planners at all levels of government to view the project in the broader sense.

"The Cross River Rail project is not just a public transport project, this is genuinely a city-making project," he said.

"And we need to see that in the context of the growth of our cities, in particular here in Brisbane."

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull last month released a Smart Cities policy looking at long-term solutions to "stop the 30-minute commute" in capital cities.

Mr Hinchliffe - with one eye on the federal election - said the project which had been discussed for almost a decade was "a real trailblazer".

"It's not simply a connection from one side of the city to the other via an underground tunnel, it's a key to reshape our city and reshape the way we plan, use and grow our cities."

He said there would be an extra 450,000 new jobs in Greater Brisbane by 2031.

"This means more people travelling to and from Brisbane to work everyday," he said.

"By 2036 that will mean nearly 1.2 million daily passenger transport trips in the Brisbane metropolitan region from growth areas like the Gold Coast, Moreton Bay, Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast."

Mr Hinchliffe said Brisbane was about to feel the pinch because there had been no new rail infrastructure in the CBD since 1996.

"And no new inner-city river crossing since the Merivale Bridge was built in 1978."

Key points:

    SEQ population to double to 4.9 million by 2036
    Extra 450,000 new jobs in the region by 2031
    Congestion costs - Brisbane/Gold Coast/Sunshine Coat $9 billion yearly by 2036 without CRR.
    1.2 million daily rail trips by 2036.
    Five underground stations; Boggo Road, Woollongabba, CBD, Roma Street and the Exhibition Grounds.

[ozbob]

 

[STB]

And this is what happens when one does not invest in infrastructure or the right infrastructure and people cannot get into the city or access the city easily.  You end up with that mind boggling brake in the economy. 

[Stillwater]

Perhaps Mr Hinchliffe doesn't realise it, but his statement is an admission of failure by government on the transport front.

They have not just realised this now -- it has been known all along.  So, for the sake of 'saving' $5-$6 billion on Cross River Rail, we have to wear a penalty of $69 billion?  That is what Mr Hinchliffe is saying.

Same for SCL duplication - the government is being told that 'doing nothing is not an option' and that a lack of investment in the NCL to Townsville and Cairns will result in its rail-freight function being reduced to an 'irrelevancy'.  And still the government's preferred position is to do nothing.

Governments are elected to lead.  The Palaszczuk Government is missing in action when it comes to public transport investment.  It can't move even on the small stuff, like ticketing, fare review and bus network reform -- all largely revenue neutral.  They are things that can be done now while the government wrings its hands over the cost of CRR. 

On Mr Hinchliffe's own estimation, that cost is not $6 billion, or thereabouts, (we don't know because no business plan exists!), but $69 billion.  Sixty-nine billion dollars is the cost of doing nothing on CRR, and we are set to pay it.

[STB]

Perhaps Mr Hinchliffe doesn't realise it, but his statement is an admission of failure by government on the transport front.

They have not just realised this now -- it has been known all along.  So, for the sake of 'saving' $5-$6 billion on Cross River Rail, we have to wear a penalty of $69 billion?  That is what Mr Hinchliffe is saying.

Same for SCL duplication - the government is being told that 'doing nothing is not an option' and that a lack of investment in the NCL to Townsville and Cairns will result in its rail-freight function being reduced to an 'irrelevancy'.  And still the government's preferred position is to do nothing.

Governments are elected to lead.  The Palaszczuk Government is missing in action when it comes to public transport investment.  It can't move even on the small stuff, like ticketing, fare review and bus network reform -- all largely revenue neutral.  They are things that can be done now while the government wrings its hands over the cost of CRR. 

On Mr Hinchliffe's own estimation, that cost is not $6 billion, or thereabouts, (we don't know because no business plan exists!), but $69 billion.  Sixty-nine billion dollars is the cost of doing nothing on CRR, and we are set to pay it.

$6 billion investment vs a potential $69 billion loss.  I know where I'd rather put my money.

[ozbob]

We are headlong into very serious transport failure ... the costs of which will be considerable in direct economic impact but huge social and quality of life costs as well.

It is a disgrace that successive governments have allowed this steady and obvious (we have constantly pointed it out) deterioration ..

You are very correct Mr Stillwater.  A government that struggles to deliver the little things is not going to deliver the big things.

So  the best thing I think is to listen to nice songs .. and imagine Cross River Rail #27

Eg.

[#Metro]

They have not just realised this now -- it has been known all along.  So, for the sake of 'saving' $5-$6 billion on Cross River Rail, we have to wear a penalty of $69 billion?  That is what Mr Hinchliffe is saying.

I think it just highlights the role of the gov't isn't to maximise profits from commercial businesses.

Do something about the assets - sell them, lease them or borrow against them.

And for heaven's sake - do something about the bus network!

[kram0]

So if this is the case Mr Hinchliffe, stop fuc$ing talking about the project and get on and build it you tosser!! Your numbers tell us this project should start immediately without delay!! Only time will tell how serious he is.

[mufreight]

Instead of fluffing around with video promotions and glossy propaganda booklets the Minister should be starting on construction from the state budget.
A good starting point would be to build the station at the Gabba and offset the construction costs by selling the air rights for the private sector to build over the station footprint.  A building of say 15 to 20 stories with the lower levels being retail then commercial and the upper floors residential, a good money making mix that would be attractive to the private sector to build and the Government gets the station built and is seen by the man in the street to have made a start and actually done something.
As the money becomes available the work could start on the tunnels back towards Dutton Park and the connection to the existing Beenleigh/Gold Coast line.
Doing this would ramp up the pressure on the Commonwealth Government to provide some funds for the project.

This previous post makes one wonder how long the Queensland Government of both persuasions are going to keep procrastinating before someone get going on this project.  All levels of government acknowledge the increasing urgency of this project but they all want someone else to foot the bill, the Queensland government could at the present time force the issue by making an actual commencement of work prior to the Federal election, neither the LNP or Labor could then refuse at least a major contribution that would allow work to progress.
Time Mr Hinchcliff to dust off the plans and get a shovel in the dirt, if you dont the probability is that the next election will see the LNP as our state government as surely as if Mr Turnbull does not make a meaningful contribution to this essential piece of infrastructure he will lose seats in South East Queensland and in all probability, government.

[Stillwater]

Here is a job for the Treasurer, Mr Pitt, or his Boy Wonder shadow minister, Mr Emerson, recycled from the shadow transport portfolio.  Not building CRR is going to cost $69 billion.  What would be the cost of the state government borrowing $6-7 billion to build it, even if that cost includes a downgrading of Queensland's credit rating across all its borrowing?  And is that figure less than $69 billion?  If it is, then the project is worth funding totally from borrowings.  (Bear in mind that interest rates are the lowest they have been since Elvis joined the Army.)

It is easy to see why the state government is reluctant to do anything that would make public transport more attractive and cause more people to use trains.  It would bring forward the crisis point of which Mr Hinchliffe speaks.  This is a government running from the success that a more efficient and innovative SEQ public transport network could be. It can't quite bring itself to financing a big SEQ project ahead of the Townsville Stadium, for fear of a political backlash and criticism that it is favouring the South-east over the North.  The North has its own (federally-funded) Northern Australia Development Fund.

Also, this is a government that says its No.1 top priority is jobs for Queenslanders.  Mr Hinchliffe estimates that there will be an extra 450,000 jobs in the region by 2031.  Extra!  Imagine the difficulty those people will have getting to and from work.

We are heading for a congestion and pollution nightmare, with considerable impacts on lifestyle, yet all governments can do is scope the problem, not find a solution.

[kram0]

One thing you are forgetting, the current crop of politicians don't have backbone or common sense to make a big decision for the long term benefit of the state, they are merely thinking of the 3 year term. They should all be sacked for there level of incompetence!!