Predicted changes from the LNP Government

[achiruel]

What transport changes do we think we're likely to see from the new government?

Mine:

• Stage 4 GCLR is almost certainly cancelled. If they just decide to have electric buses in bus lanes or something from Burleigh to Cooly, it wouldn't bother me too much, it's probably a reasonable interim measure. I just hope they don't do something insanely stupid like light rail down the M1 corridor.
• I don't believe 50 cent fares will stay around, despite their claims otherwise before the election. They'll roll out the typical excuse - "oh, we didn't realise Labor had left the state finances in such bad shape, we can't afford it now".
• I also don't believe there will be heavy rail to Maroochydore by 2032. There simply isn't enough time left to get the job done with the skilled construction labour available.
• LNP also gave a vague promise to improve frequency in outer suburban areas. I hope this happens, but it's a bit hard to predict exactly what given no concrete promises were made.

[ozbob]

Ha, you are enthusiastic #Metro.  But let's slow down a little. 

Further roll out of BERT will be dependent on how things really go for M1 and M2 first. 

Then consideration will be given I think to the possible northern extension first as the priority, then latterly the eastern.

As far as BERT to the Airport I don't think that will happen.

BCC has a real challenge now to manage the bus changes.  Boot is on the other foot.

As far as 50 cent fares goes, they remain, probably for 4 years is my bet.

The thing I am disappointed about is that the Independent Transport Authority is probably dead in the water for now.  Shame, as the farce of bloated Brisbane versus the rest of SEQ, and Queensland will continue.  Brisbane over-serviced, other regions under-serviced.

DSCRL - I think that Birtinya is virtually guaranteed, not so confident for the final section to Maroochydore by 2032.

QSAC - What!  No shuttle buses from Banoon railway station   

Seriously, the sooner QSAC is kicked into touch, the better.  It is going to be fascinating watching what the new Government comes up with for the 2032 Games.  Ball is definitely in their court now!

Station DDA upgrade program may slow right down (despite legal requirements to do so), there seems to be thinking within the LNP that these upgrades are ' gold plating ' when in fact they are not.

Another positive that I would like to see is the cutting of excessive use of consultants. Part of the reason we are in the mess we are today is because of outsourcing to consultants who come up with wrong solutions. LNP have said they want it curtailed, time will tell.

Gold Coast Light Stage 4 will be a financial sacrifice for DSCRL is my hunch. Expect BRT at best.  This doesn't mean it will never happen, just will be delayed. Unless the LNP can really deliver (and judging by the election campaign - I have my doubts) they will be a one term Government.

[ozbob]

One of the questions I will be asking the new Minister for Transport and Government is what they plan do about the bus driver shortages? 

The constant bus service cancellations are terrible!

>> https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15734.0

[achiruel]

One of the questions I will be asking the new Minister for Transport and Government is what they plan do about the bus driver shortages? 

The constant bus service cancellations are terrible!

>> https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15734.0

Agreed. Not sure what can be done, other than increasing wages. Although, some contractors won't even do that when the government has given the money to do so (see: Bus Qld).

[Arnz]

1.  GCLR Stage 4 cancelled.  Investigation of bus lane replacement, along with the ordering of more electric buses.
2.  50c fares network-wide around for 2 years at the most.  Final 2 years of the incoming government would be a "50c per zone", capped to $4 (8 zones) for a Brisbane to Gympie North fare, spun by the L/NP along the the lines of "See? we're keeping short trips 50c"
3.  Metro Bus expansion dependent on how the M1 and M2 services will go.  Proposed Airport 'extension' will likely be cancelled due to Airtrain contract.
4.  DSCL will be announced as far as Birtinya/SCUH (smack bang in the middle of Bleijie's Kawana seat), with the Birtinya to Maroochydore part deferred indefinitely with multiple excuses of "lack of resources (staff/materials), state cash and lack of federal funding".  Money for Caloundra to Birtinya possibly likely to come from the cancelled GCLR4.

[#Metro]

The thing I am disappointed about is that the Independent Transport Authority is probably dead in the water for now.  Shame, as the farce of bloated Brisbane versus the rest of SEQ, and Queensland will continue.  Brisbane over-serviced, other regions under-serviced.

Well, just depends on how the value proposition is put. Combining three agencies into one makes a lot of sense if you're preparing for the Olympics.

[achiruel]

Anyone know what the plan for QTMP is now? I'm guessing the first lot will still be built, but what then?

[ozbob]

Anyone know what the plan for QTMP is now? I'm guessing the first lot will still be built, but what then?

I don't expect any changes with the QTMP (presently 65 six car trains), except possible increase in train numbers in time.  The LNP have committed to Maroochydore.  Trains will be needed for that line and to replace the other aged trains in the QR fleet. The LNP got burned big time over the NGR fiasco.  It will not be repeated.

[Fares_Fair]

1.  GCLR Stage 4 cancelled.  Investigation of bus lane replacement, along with the ordering of more electric buses.
2.  50c fares network-wide around for 2 years at the most.  Final 2 years of the incoming government would be a "50c per zone", capped to $4 (8 zones) for a Brisbane to Gympie North fare, spun by the L/NP along the the lines of "See? we're keeping short trips 50c"
3.  Metro Bus expansion dependent on how the M1 and M2 services will go.  Proposed Airport 'extension' will likely be cancelled due to Airtrain contract.
4.  DSCL will be announced as far as Birtinya/SCUH (smack bang in the middle of Bleijie's Kawana seat), with the Birtinya to Maroochydore part deferred indefinitely with multiple excuses of "lack of resources (staff/materials), state cash and lack of federal funding".  Money for Caloundra to Birtinya possibly likely to come from the cancelled GCLR4.

Re: point 2.
Both major parties vowing to keep flat rate 50 cent fares indefinitely, as reported by Ch9 on 16 September 2024.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/queensland-50c-fares-public-transport-both-government-and-opposition-promise-news/401be1a9-745c-44e0-8709-e67543a697aa


Re: point 4.
The LNP have committed to build 37km duplicated rail all the way to Maroochydore by the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
David Crisafulli also reiterated that they would keep their word on what has been promised, in his acceptance speech.
The LNP have NEVER lied to us on our rail.

[achiruel]

Re: point 4.
The LNP have committed to build 37km duplicated rail all the way to Maroochydore by the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
David Crisafulli also reiterated that they would keep their word on what has been promised, in his acceptance speech.
The LNP have NEVER lied to us on our rail.

Well, that's about to change. Non-existent promises are easy to keep. There's simply no way it will be finished by 2032. You'll be back here in 8 years adding them to the list.

[GonzoFonzie]

#1 - The Gabba:
*They go ahead with the Gabba rebuild.
*The school next door gets shut, but not knocked down. The State will use it as admin offices.
*Sports House gets physically moved next to the school. Remains as admin offices.
*The $450 million Woolloongabba station thingy for all you Bertie Beetle Battery Bus fans is back on the menu.
*With the The Greens losing South Brisbane seat to Labor, any opposition to the Gabba rebuild is removed.
*Labor laments not sticking with the Gabba rebuild from the beginning, but will not oppose it publicly.
*LNP Government whinges about Labor lying about costs again, claim they can build it cheaper and quicker.
*Proceed to build it and end up costing more than what Labor forecast it to be.

#2 - GCLR4:
*It is intentionally delayed and in limbo until it becomes a priority when the next election occurs.

#3 - Rail projects:
a) DSCL:
*They bypass Caloundra and Aroona stations, in order to get it to The Sunshine Coast (Pacific Paradise). The station at Maroochydoore City Centre is scrapped.
*They scrap the B2N project to "pay for it".

b) Springfield line extension to Ripley/Ipswich:
*No progress.

c) Gold Coast line extension to Coolangatta:
*Largely forgotten, no progress. Conflicts with GCLR4.

[Cleveland Line]

Re: point 4.
The LNP have committed to build 37km duplicated rail all the way to Maroochydore by the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
David Crisafulli also reiterated that they would keep their word on what has been promised, in his acceptance speech.
The LNP have NEVER lied to us on our rail.

Did they just forget to include money for it in their costings then?

Or will they break the promise of lower debt to fund it?

[verbatim9]

Point 2

Eventually, like the abolishment of the 8c fuel discount in early 2000s they will have to reintroduce reasonable fares again. I think the 50c fares are appropriate at the moment and act as compensation for line closures,, cancellations and overall abysmal frequency on both buses and trains off peak** (except for the BUZ HF routes).

Distance fares are the best based on kms traveled where it caps out if travelling over 50 kms. I don't like zonal as it has too many anomalies.

If you only go 5 km it should only be $1-1.50, 10km 1.50-2, and 20 km 3.00 and 50 km > capped at 5.00. There should also be daily, weekly and monthly caps as well.

[RowBro]

Point 2

Eventually, like the abolishment of the 8c fuel discount in early 2000s they will have to reintroduce reasonable fares again. I think the 50c fares are appropriate at the moment and act as compensation for line closures,, cancellations and overall abysmal frequency on both buses and trains off peak** (except for the BUZ HF routes).

Distance fares are the best based on kms traveled where it caps out if travelling over 50 kms. I don't like zonal as it has too many anomalies.

If you only go 5 km it should only be $1-1.50, 10km 1.50-2, and 20 km 3.00 and 50 km > capped at 5.00. There should also be daily, weekly and monthly caps as well.

Just make it 10c per kilometre travelled (as the crow flies).

[#Metro]

Eventually, like the abolishment of the 8c fuel discount in early 2000s they will have to reintroduce reasonable fares again.

Agreed. The 50c fare policy is essentially paying $1b more over 4 years for the same level of service.

We have the patronage increase data now, it seems stable, so we don't really need to run it longer or make it permanent.

From the data, the cost per additional passenger trip should be calculated and compared with the next best alternative - a bus frequency boost. That would be the data analysis.

Then publish it.

At $1 billion over 4 years, quite a lot of be permanent bus service statewide could be unlocked by simply reallocating those funds.

[achiruel]

Just make it 10c per kilometre travelled (as the crow flies).

Why does it need to be 10c, and not 8 or 9 or 11?

The vast majority of fares are paid electronically these days, there's no reason to have them at a particular round figure. I agree with a flat rate, though.

Eventually, like the abolishment of the 8c fuel discount in early 2000s they will have to reintroduce reasonable fares again.

Agreed. The 50c fare policy is essentially paying $1b more over 4 years for the same level of service.

We have the patronage increase data now, it seems stable, so we don't really need to run it longer or make it permanent.

From the data, the cost per additional passenger trip should be calculated and compared with the next best alternative - a bus frequency boost. The would be the data analysis.

At $1 billion over 4 years, quite a lot of be permanent bus service statewide could be unlocked by simply reallocating those funds.

That might be valid if the money saved is actually put into bus improvements. Most likely, it will just go into the road budget, so no benefit at all for public transport.

[#Metro]

That might be valid if the money saved is actually put into bus improvements. Most likely, it will just go into the road budget, so no benefit at all for public transport.

The people are responsible for the government they democratically elect and its choices.

50c fares aren't aligned to any particular core blue team principle or philosophy, and it's purpose (data collection, election sweetener) has now been served.

So now is the time to remove it or at least start phasing it out. The 50c fares policy is designed to co-opt our support, make anyone suggesting it's removal look bad, maximise loss aversion reactions and cause painful withdrawal, but that's QLD politics.

We have an Olympics to prepare for in 8 years and the entire SEQ bus network needs to be simplified, service boosted and new depots to hold the additional buses required before then. That's where this sort of money should be going.

[ozbob]

50 cent fares are here to stay for now.  The rationale for their introduction was a cost of living relief (as stated by the former Government).  The new Government will be issuing instructions today to make the 50 cent fares permanent.  That is a fact of life for now.

[#Metro]

The rationale for their introduction was a cost of living relief (as stated by the former Government).

Dual intent / Double effect.

The cost of living basis for this policy measure only justifies it as a temporary one, not a permanent one. It is also untargeted. And there are potentially better ways to achieve cost-of-living relief. Increasing the electricity rebate would be a better measure to deliver relief, for example, as virtually everyone uses power, whereas not everyone lives in an area that enjoys useful PT service. This is particularly the case for non-SEQ and non-BCC residents.

So the possibility the measure was also intended as an election sweetener cannot be ruled out. Until it is phased out, the service frequency boosts we could have got with that money will now have to wait.