SEQ 50c Fares predicted and actual patronage increases

[#Metro]

Forum estimation of the size of the patronage increase resulting from 50c flat fares trial over 6 months.

Five day poll.

Results after voting.

Change vote available until expiry.

[AnonymouslyBad]

I said 10-20%, and I think probably on the lower end of that. There will be a big spike initially.

My speculation (and I'm by no means an expert):

• Weekday off-peak: Will see a decent increase in patronage throughout the 6 months. Key here will be frequent PT users becoming even more frequent PT users.
• Weekday peak: Virtually no change. Cost isn't really the barrier here, existing commuters will just be happy they're saving money
• Weekends: Quite a nice bump at first, then settling down to a very modest increase. Lots of people will try the service who otherwise wouldn't, unfortunately the 'service' isn't actually there and they'll go straight back to their cars (probably forever ).

[hU0N]

Weekday peak: Virtually no change. Cost isn't really the barrier here, existing commuters will just be happy they're saving money

I said this on another thread, but I think there might be some growth in counterpeak travel.  Cost is a barrier to peak hour travel to suburban jobs.  So are geographical factors, but cost is part of it.  I think most peak hour growth will be heading away from the CBD.

[#Metro]

Results are now available, thank you to all members who voted.

Members overall expect the 50c fares initiative to result in an average of ~ 18% patronage increase network-wide.

Using a base of 160 million trips per year, members thus expect an additional ~ 28.8 million trips per year. As we are only looking at 6 months, the increase expected is half this at 14.4 million additional trips for the 6-month period.

Given the cost of $148 million and assuming 14.4 million new trips, each new trip will be brought onto the Translink system for ~ $10.28 per new trip. New trips can be generated by new users (mode shift) or existing users taking more trips (induction).

Data Analysis

1. Grouped data, so take category midpoints
2. Multiply by frequency for each category
3. Divide by total number of observations

Midpoint %	Frequency	Product
5	3	15.00
15	9	135.00
25	9	225.00
Sum	21	375.00

Final (as percent)       17.86 (round up to 18%)

Method
Measures of Central Tendency: Mean, Median, and Mode
https://www.riosalado.edu/web/oer/WRKDEV100-20011_INTER_0000_v1/lessons/Mod05_MeanMedianMode.shtml

[verbatim9]

I didn't vote but I reckon it will occur a slight increase of up to 10%. Mainly off peak weekend trips, which regular travellers would likely not do otherwise and some extra peak trips.

Passenger boardings are likely to drop off significantly from November, as the academic year winds down and people go on holidays.

So, I see most of the trips being generated from Aug to Oct.

[Jonno]

The "cost" also needs to factor in the tax-subsidy saving of their trip not being by car.

Even if this generates new trips not replacing a car trip then there's a benefit due to economic activity or employment access

[ozbob]

In ' normal years ' the quarter with the lowest patronage is Q2, which includes November & December, as you can note in this graph ( from https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15609.0 )



The usual patronage patterns were disrupted by the pandemic, lock downs etc. but it does appear the usual pattern is starting to re-establish.

[#Metro]

What we really want to see is mode shift from car.

I have concerns that Translink will simply report an increase in trips generally, without being able to tell if they are new trips, shifted car trips or existing users just travelling more.

[Jonno]

What we really want to see is mode shift from car.

I have concerns that Translink will simply report an increase in trips generally, without being able to tell if they are new trips, shifted car trips or existing users just travelling more.

all of which have positive effects.  The idea that this is purely a cost ignores the research about transit users and better retail turn over, less social isolation and greater access to jobs.

[#Metro]

Jonno, as a temporary measure, no road projects are being avoided by this measure. So no benefits from that.

The are also no new services, so no increase in access either. It's just the same services going to the same places.

It's just a fare cut.

Transport is the product, modes including car, are simply a means to supply that.

[Jonno]

But the significant drop in fares should/will allow people struggling financially (those below the poverty line) the opportunity to access jobs and other parts of the city that they might have previously not been able to afford to access. 

There are many families making decisions each week on their health, food, life in general because the cost of living is unaffordable for them.

None of this says that frequency and a better network isn't better for more share but there are benefits that you are choosing to ignore to make a point.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2023/02/03/improving-social-access-beyond-the-inner-city.html

[Gazza]

Yeah but the number of people who cannot afford the current fares is insignificant.

[Jonno]

Yeah but the number of people who cannot afford the current fares is insignificant.

we are in the middle of a housing affordability and cost of living crisis but the most expensive fares in Australia is not an issue?  Intriguing.

[#Metro]

Those on a Centrelink payment like jobseeker should have access to the discounted/concession fare.

Is this the case now in QLD or not?

[ozbob]

Those on a Centrelink payment like jobseeker should have access to the discounted/concession fare.

Is this the case now in QLD or not?

Translink: Concessions

> https://translink.com.au/tickets-and-fares/concessions

When the fifty cent flat fares in place no concessions.

[nathandavid88]

^^ I didn't know that Jobseekers can now apply for concessional fares. I don't think that was the case back when I was fresh out of uni and job hunting circa 2009.

[#Metro]

Veitch Lister Consulting have done a modelling on a free PT for SEQ scenario.

This isn't the 50c policy, but a free scenario. Major increases in BNE Airtrain usage predicted (5x increase).

Modelled increase was 19% increase, which is very close to our forum poll result of 18%.

What could happen in public transport was free on SEQ. An exploratory modelling exercise.

https://veitchlister.com/what-could-happen-if-public-transport-was-free-in-seq-an-exploratory-modelling-exercise/

[OzGamer]

I assume from those results that the model had the Airport Train free as well, so they don't reflect what's happening here.

I suspect free is very different to 50c, just psychologically, but we'll see.

It's interesting that for major events at Lang Park they make it free and not some concessional fare. Partly that's to make the flow of people smoother, but partly because that's what you do if you really want people to use public transport.

[nathandavid88]

I assume from those results that the model had the Airport Train free as well, so they don't reflect what's happening here.

That is correct:

"Interestingly, but intuitively, Airtrain services, which has higher fares than standard TransLink Services, saw boardings increase by a factor of five. However, it should be noted that this point from our research is not relevant to the upcoming fare reduction trial, which covers the Airtrain service to Brisbane's domestic and international airports."

I suspect free is very different to 50c, just psychologically, but we'll see.

To some maybe, but it is such a major reduction in fares that I suspect many would consider it 'practically free'.

[AnonymouslyBad]

To some maybe, but it is such a major reduction in fares that I suspect many would consider it 'practically free'.

I think "very cheap" is actually more attractive than "free".
It's just a tiny bit of a price signal.

This would be especially the case if open ticketing were rolled out on buses...

[Jonno]

To some maybe, but it is such a major reduction in fares that I suspect many would consider it 'practically free'.

I think "very cheap" is actually more attractive than "free".
It's just a tiny bit of a price signal.

This would be especially the case if open ticketing were rolled out on buses...

we should try it out in driving as well!! And I don't mean rego

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Qld train stations brace for 50c fare anarchy $

Security will be ramped up at train stations and backup bus services will be readied ahead of an expected surge in train passengers when the state government's 50c fare deal comes into effect in two weeks.

Public transport usage is at 82 per cent of pre-Covid levels, or just over 45 million passengers per year, with the government saying there will be capacity on most services.

However, train passenger numbers are expected to boom when the 50c fare deal kicks off on August 5, with Translink preparing buses that will be sent in to collect stranded travellers if services become too overcrowded.

Both Translink and Queensland Rail will ramp up security, with more officers patrolling aboard trains, at stations and at station car parks. ...

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1812152858869207208

[ozbob]

Using the average trips for the period 2016/17/18/19 for respective quarters,

SEQ patronage as a percentage (pre-covid) for Q3 23/24 was as follows:

Total:  91.8%

SEQ Bus 93.9%

Citytrain 83.8%

*Light rail 104.9%

Ferry 80.9%

* Light rail from 2017 stage 2

Spreadsheet:

[ozbob]

^ I am not sure where the media is getting their current patronage figures cf. to pre-covid from,
but it appears to be erroneous.

https://x.com/railbotforum/status/1812373869476630888

[Arnz]

Not sure if the "patronage increases" will be that dramatic on the 'coverage routes', served hourly or worse. This is akin to selling the ol 'rotten apples' for 50c.  Coverage routes typically have limited options.

There's a lot of coverage routes across SEQ which are considered 'rotten apples'..

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

14th July 2024

Re[2]: We are indeed missing the bus...

Greetings,

We have compared the latest publicly available quarterly patronage for SEQ Public Transport which is Q3 FY 23/24 and have compared that to the pre-covid patronage for the quarter.

Using the average trips for the period 2016/17/18/19 for respective quarters,

SEQ patronage as a percentage (pre-covid) for Q3 23/24 was as follows:

Total:  91.8%

SEQ Bus 93.9%

Citytrain 83.8%

*Light rail 104.9%

Ferry 80.9%

* Light rail from 2017 stage 2

Spreadsheet is available here > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4707

This is not in agreement with some of the media reporting.  Just a heads up for you all 

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Attached: https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?msg=285552

[ozbob]

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1812521483379650684

[HappyTrainGuy]

Not sure if the "patronage increases" will be that dramatic on the 'coverage routes', served hourly or worse. This is akin to selling the ol 'rotten apples' for 50c.  Coverage routes typically have limited options.

There's a lot of coverage routes across SEQ which are considered 'rotten apples'..

Agreed. Some are going to be smashed while others will see minimal increases.

[ozbob]

This is the patronage recovery table:

Spreadsheet > https://backontrack.org/docs/patronage/2023_24/q3/q3_23_24_averages.ods

[aldonius]

Might be a dumb question, but what's the reference quarter for that table? (Might be good to include it in the  image if you use it on social media.)

[verbatim9]

Looks like GLink may take the brunt of it all according to the stats.

Maybe buses as well.

[ozbob]

Might be a dumb question, but what's the reference quarter for that table? (Might be good to include it in the  image if you use it on social media.)

> https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4707

The reference quarters are in the spreadsheet were previously referenced,

but here is the full spreadsheet >

https://backontrack.org/docs/patronage/2023_24/q3/q3_23_24_averages.ods

There is a cyclic rise and fall of patronage normally through the quarters, that is why there is a calculated reference quarter for each of the four quarters. This gives a more accurate measure of patronage gain/loss for each quarter relative to the pre-covid reference quarters. To use one fixed quarter point as reference would be misleading, in view of the normal cyclic rise and fall over the 4 quarters.



^ from  > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15667.0

[ozbob]

Looks like GLink may take the brunt of it all according to the stats.

Maybe buses as well.

G-Link was the first to recover patronage.  Buses have less potential capacity than rail. 

Hopefully the fifty cent fares will lead to all modes +100% recovery.

[SurfRail]

There's plenty of capacity in the tramway.  Gold Coast I'm not particularly concerned about other than trains, because peak hour doen't work quite the same there.

[ozbob]

One of the advantages of looking at the quarterly patronage data series is that we see the changes a lot quicker than just relying on annual data.

For example:

Annual patronage data:

Year        total trips million  % of FY 2018/19

FY 2018/19           189.72

FY 2019/20           152.59       80.4%

FY 2020/21           119.06       62.8%

FY 2021/22           113.42       59.8%

FY 2022/23           153.25       80.8%



From https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15339.0

[AnonymouslyBad]

There's plenty of capacity in the tramway.  Gold Coast I'm not particularly concerned about other than trains, because peak hour doen't work quite the same there.

Yeah, it doesn't work quite the same in that peak hour runs all day

I think it will be very interesting to see what happens on the GC vs. in Brisbane.

Gold Coast is the only region outside Brisbane City with 'OK' (not great but OK) bus service - and more consistently so.
It probably also has more latent demand than Brisbane.

[ozbob]

Just for interest.

Using the weekly trip data that is presently available for FY 23/24 up to end May 2024, and an estimate for June 2024 (sum of weekly trips so far for 2024 / 11) annual patronage relative to FY 2018/19 is ~ 89% for total ( this is in broad agreement with the quarterly data analyses).

Be interesting to see what the final published figures are in annual reports.

[#Metro]

* Bump * 

[AnonymouslyBad]

^ I hate to say "I told you so", but...

I wonder if and when some actual stats will come out.

[nathandavid88]

^^ BT is reporting that results from Monday showed 57,000 more train, ferry, bus and light rail trips than average, just under 10% up year on year.

Total public transport ticket sales increased by just under 10 per cent compared with "a standard Monday" at the same time last year.

"Data from the first day of the trial showed a patronage lift across all four modes of public transport," a spokesperson for Translink told Brisbane Times.

Ferries led the way, with users on Monday increasing 38.3 per cent over the same time last year. The figure was likely bolstered by reopening of several terminals during that time.

Light-rail use increased by 14.9 per cent, trains increased by 14.1 per cent and buses increased 6.8 per cent.

Data comparing ticket sales with previous weeks in 2024 was not provided, and the boost might be inflated by other factors including a progressive commuter bounceback post-COVID.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/how-busy-was-the-rollout-of-50-travel-in-brisbane-new-data-revealed-20240808-p5k0rs.html