Summary of reported Citytrain disruptions May 2023 to Dec 2023

[ozbob]

Total of 2753 reported service disruptions May 2023 to Dec 2023

Signalling issues 525 = 19.1%

Train faults 596 = 21.7%


For complete details for the reported Citytrain disruptions see

May > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15197.0

June > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15278.0

July > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15279.0

August > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15311.0

September > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15340.0

October > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15400.0

November > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15434.0

December > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15486.0

[ozbob]

For the period 1 May 2023 through to the 31 December 2023,

herewith the stated causes of reported Citytrain service disruptions

[#Metro]

^ Suggests up to 40% of train disruptions could potentially be avoided if trains were newer (less faults) and line side signaling were removed in favour of ETCS L2.

Just these two faults together average out to three per day across the year.

[ozbob]

This eight month analysis of the reported Citytrain service disruptions is illuminating.
Not all service disruptions are reported but it gives a good guide.

Note though it is not an absolute analysis of the number of actual faults etc. but gives a relative guide to the impact of various causes of service disruptions.  For example one train fault can give rise to a number of follow on service disruptions. What it is showing is the overall impact on service delivery of the various causes of disruptions listed.

Yes, the most significant impact is train faults and signal issues. Many of the other factors are not within the direct control of the operator and have varying impacts.

If you look at the table of Service disruptions cf. to OTR % (first post of this thread) the only month (of the data presently available) that had both 24/7 FMA and CP FMA better than 95% (the target) was September 2023, the month with the lowest number of reported service disruptions.  This suggest that OTR targets will be meet if the number of service disruptions per month is < 250, ideally around 200.

The train fleet situation is cause for some concern IMHO.  Both the QR fleet and the NGRs are numerically deficient and are being flogged. The fact that EMUs are still around is just a sign of this. There has been gross political incompetence ( I am sure internally QR has pressed strong cases but ignored ) over a succession of State Governments. The decision to reduce the NGRs from 100 six car to 75 six car trains is a root cause.

The signalling needs to be upgraded to a network wide ETCS implementation. That is not going to happen any time soon, despite QR pushing for this for some time, so I expect the problems will worsen with the interfacing of the legacy system with the ETCS L2 sections for CRR and extensions. Just consider the problems they had with interfacing the signalling on the Redcliffe Peninsula Line with the rest of the signalling system. Hard to be confident isn't it?

The opening of CRR is going to be farcical I expect.  The QTMP trains are many years away. Perth has C series trains already to roll. 

[#Metro]

Results in Perth speak for themselves. Yes, they use 'flat pack trains' which might explain the speed to delivery... we're still building the factory.

There is probably a lot better coordination and execution in Perth because Transperth and Transperth trains are all the same organisation.

Seems to be many organisational interfaces here in Qld, every interface is another bridge to cross.

Would be interesting to compare disruptions to Perth trains over the year versus our own...

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

Why is my train late?  Why is my train cancelled?

3rd January 2024

Greetings,

For the last eight months we have recorded the number of reported Citytrain service disruptions via Translink Twitter/X, and the stated reason for each disruption.  We commenced doing this because of concerns we had with the number and reliability of the Citytrain train fleet and the New Generation Rollingstock (NGR) trains.

See https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15277.0

This eight month analysis of the reported Citytrain service disruptions is illuminating.
Not all service disruptions are reported we believe, but it gives a good guide.



image: https://backontrack.org/docs/qr/citytraindisruptions/sortedsummarymay_dec23.png

Note though it is not an absolute analysis of the number of actual faults etc. but gives a relative guide to the impact of various causes of service disruptions from a passenger point of view.  For example one train fault can give rise to a number of follow on service disruptions. What it is showing is the overall impact on service delivery of the various causes of disruptions listed.

The most significant impact is train faults and signal issues. Many of the other factors are not within the direct control of the operator and have varying impacts.



image: https://backontrack.org/docs/qr/citytraindisruptions/summary.jpg



image: https://backontrack.org/docs/qr/citytraindisruptions/summarymay_dec23.png

If you look at the table of Service disruptions cf. to OTR ( On-time running ) % the only month ( of the data presently publicly available ) that had both 24/7 FMA and CP FMA better than 95% (the target) was September 2023, the month with the lowest number of reported service disruptions.  This suggest that OTR targets will be met if the number of service disruptions per month is < 250, ideally less than 200.

The train fleet situation is cause for some concern.  Both the QR fleet and the NGRs are numerically deficient and are being flogged in our view. The fact that EMUs are still around is just a sign of this. There has been gross political incompetence ( we are sure internally QR has pressed strong cases but ignored ) over a succession of State Governments. The decision to reduce the number of NGRs from 100 six car to 75 six car trains is a root cause.

The signalling needs to be upgraded to a network wide ETCS ( European Train Control System ) implementation. That is not going to happen any time soon, despite we understand QR pushing for this for some time, so we expect the problems will worsen with the interfacing of the legacy system with the ETCS L2 sections for CRR and extensions. Just consider the problems they had with interfacing the signalling on the Redcliffe Peninsula Line ( non ETCS signalling ) with the rest of the signalling system. Hard to be confident isn't it?

The opening of CRR ( Cross River Rail ) is going to be farcical we expect.  The QTMP ( Queensland Train Manufacturing Program ) trains are many years away.
Perth WA has new C series trains already to roll. WA is proactive, Queensland is increasingly reactive and incompetent.

Happy new year!

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

[ozbob]

Facebook ...

Why is my train late? Why is my train cancelled? 3rd January 2024 Greetings, For the last eight months we have...

Posted by RAIL - Back On Track on Tuesday, 2 January 2024

[ozbob]

https://x.com/railbotforum/status/1742326002649584108?s=20

[ozbob]

Off topic discussion has been moved to > https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=15488.0

[ozbob]

Posted by HappyTrainGuy

^ Suggests up to 40% of train disruptions could potentially be avoided if trains were newer (less faults) and line side signaling were removed in favour of ETCS L2.

Just these two faults together average out to three per day across the year.

Not quite. Signalling issues are quite vague. Quite a few signalling issues have been a result of trespassing. Someone runs over the track to tag something and trips a circuit creating a red. NGRs do pop up with faults every now and then but the vast are older fleets. Older drivers knew work arounds while younger drivers may not. This goes back to popping breakers on the units. You need to go further and determine what the actual fault was but getting that data wouldn't be easy. Yes there are bugs with it but reporting is also not the best and it does give you an idea.

[ozbob]

I am carrying on this analysis for 2024. 

It does provide some good insights into the causes of significant impacts on passengers using the network.

[ozbob]

Updated summary table in lead post for November OTR.

[ozbob]

Updated summary table in lead post for December OTR.