#qldvotes2020 - Queensland State Election 31 October 2020

[ozbob]

https://twitter.com/fel_caldwell/status/1141139858712174592

[aldonius]

Immediately before the US elections... and now with fixed four year terms, that will be the case going forwards too!

Hopefully sometime in the 2020s we can do a 3.5 year term for both Council and State elections - so e.g. instead of a March 2028 Council elections and an October 2028 State election, we can pull the Council elections back to October 2027 and then the State election goes in March 2028. After that all can continue on the four year terms.

[verbatim9]

I always thought May would be good, but I guess it falls around Labour Day being unfair to the Liberals and unaligned non-unionist parties. Also too close to budget time. That said I am fine with the date as long as its four year fixed terms.

[verbatim9]

This is brewing up to be an election issue. I am all for a few Assets being sold off for new Assets to be built in place of them with help of Federal funds on top. Seems logical to go down that path

Privatisation might be a dirty word in many cities, but the Federal Government is under pressure to offer cash incentives to the states to sell their assets. @cokeefe9 #AusPol #9News https://t.co/7TzyRTjzeZ

https://twitter.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1148147412415811584

[techblitz]

Ive given up even caring anymore......if asked  2 or 3 years ago...I would have defended the assets staying in public hands but a lot more of the country has been sold off to private/large national/international corporates since then to even warrant caring about whatever assets we have left..

Australia is now nothing but a country to be exploited by its corporate overlords.....a place to 'make money'...nothing more...nothing less...
And with the sheer amount of social issues/political incompetence arising.....any money to get ahead of it will do at this stage...

[Stillwater]

... provided the money is spent sensibly, on worthwhile projects and not in electorates where the state government thinks it can boost its voting chances.  Projects must have a positive BCR -- without the figure being fudged.

[verbatim9]

Just now-------->https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/treasurer-jackie-trad-calls-on-opposition-to-declare-whether-they-would-sell-public-assets/news-story/8f49639fd9b096e106154432b9d67df3

Treasurer Jackie Trad calls on Opposition to declare whether they would sell public assets

Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington has been called on to reassure Queenslanders a future LNP Government would not sell public assets.

Domanii Cameron, State Political Reporter, The Courier-Mail

13 minutes ago

COURIERMAIL1:31

Qld Opposition is 'beyond hopeless'

Sky News host Alan Jones says the Queensland Coalition leadership in opposition is 'beyond hopeless'. The broadcaster sa...

OPPOSITION Leader Deb Frecklington has been called on to tell Queenslanders whether a future LNP Government would sell public assets.

Treasurer Jackie Trad said reports the Federal Government was going to offer states and territories cash incentives to privatise assets was "deeply concerning".

Ms Trad said Ms Frecklington needed to tell Queenslanders how the party would pay for its $7 billion worth of commitments if elected at next year's election.

[achiruel]

How about not having a petty argument about asset sales and show some leadership? That goes for both sides of the chamber. Both front benches are currently populated by incompetent morons IMO, with maybe a couple of exceptions. Cameron Dick seems to be doing a decent job, De Brenni, D'ath and Crawford seem not terrible. Opposition has a similar level of talent, I think, i.e. not very much.

[James]

^ State is drowning in debt, asset sales are politically toxic and nobody will try and raise taxes in the current low-wage-increase environment. The state is stuffed, basically.

Can't even get the basics right - at least Bill Shorten had the guts to put up taxes on everybody, rather than run a small target and do nothing but claim small victories as heroic wins for Queensland as his state counterparts have done.

[#Metro]

Why didn't they take the Federal money for Cross River Rail again? That would have freed up a few billion or so?

[achiruel]

Why didn't they take the Federal money for Cross River Rail again? That would have freed up a few billion or so?

There was Federal money on offer? I thought IA weren't interested because the business case was a one-page piece of crap?

[verbatim9]

It will happen from 2021. The Government of the day will just call it Asset leasing not selling.

https://twitter.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1148505993002672128

[James]

Why didn't they take the Federal money for Cross River Rail again? That would have freed up a few billion or so?

No federal money on offer at the moment - Red Team lost the election, and so vanished the $2.2bn.

[Fares_Fair]

Why didn't they take the Federal money for Cross River Rail again? That would have freed up a few billion or so?

There was Federal money on offer? I thought IA weren't interested because the business case was a one-page piece of crap?

To be fair, it was more than one page.
Figures were exaggerated by a factor of 7 from memory, according to an IV with ABC radio. Its serious fudging. The actual BCR is less than one according to IA.
I'll relisten to the IV and report back here.

To clarify / correct further.
I think it was something like... growth at 7% for the next 20 years when actual growth has been around 2%.
No other growth predictions even close to it in any other projects that IA has looked at.

[SurfRail]

IA's competence and focus is not beyond reproach, particularly their view on the appropriate discount rates to apply.  Honestly, maybe we're better off without them.

[#Metro]

What is the discount rates they are using? The RBA interest rates are somewhere around 1% now, cash is very cheap to borrow.

[SurfRail]

IA requires 7%, the suggestion is that it should be closer to 4%.

I no longer trust IA's competence to make assessments generally, let alone on subjects like this which go to basic viability of a project.

Quick summary - https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2018/October/Discount-rates

[Stillwater]

Queensland won't sell the assets - just lease them for 99 years.

[verbatim9]

Queensland won't sell the assets - just lease them for 99 years.

Yeah I reckon that will be the case too. I reckon the Libs will scrape in next year in 2020. Greens likely to retain or gain an extra seat. So there will be a lot of changes from late 2020 early 2021. If a Liberal win? They would need to make all the major changes at the beginning of their political term to ensure the benefits filter through by 2024 for potential reelection, So controversial changes to red tape, QR and Asset leases will likely to occur in the first year of the term. Then they will focus on a infrastructure build and deregulation of the economy in the 2nd and 3rd year. The 4 th year being a honeymoon transition to a 2 second term. That's if they play their cards right? Who knows we might even see talk on Daylight Saving or a permanent time shift forward?

[SurfRail]

Has everybody forgotten the knots the Newman Government tied itself in trying to convince people that long-term leases and sales were different?

Did that work?

[ozbob]

Hardly a surprise ...

Couriermail --> YouGov poll results: Annastacia Palaszczuk suffers massive drop in support

ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk has suffered a massive fall from grace with the Premier's popularity plummeting to its lowest level since she was elected in 2015.

An exclusive Courier Mail/YouGov poll has revealed Ms Palaszczuk's standing as Queensland's preferred premier has dropped 13 per cent in just six months.

Just 34 per cent of Queenslanders now think the long-serving Labor leader is best placed to run the state, down from 47 per cent in February.

However, support for LNP Leader Deb Frecklington only edged forward marginally by two per cent to 29 per cent with the number of Queenslander uncommitted about either leader surging to 37 per cent.

Ms Palaszczuk became Leader of the Opposition in 2102 after Labor was defeated by the Campbell Newman-led LNP.

But she became Premier in 2015 after Labor regained power and won a second term in 2017.

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> YouGov poll results: Labor would lose election if held today

ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk's State Labor Government is on the verge of being toppled by the at the next Queensland election in 14 months.

A Courier-Mail/YouGov poll has reveal Labor has fallen behind the LNP on a two-party-preferred basis for the first time since May 2016.

The Deb Frecklington-led Opposition has now edged in front 51 per cent to Labor's 49 per cent in a massive coup for the third-term Nanango MP who had previously faced murmurings about her leadership.

Labor led the last Courier Mail/YouGov poll in February 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

The results come after Labor's horror showing in Queensland at the Federal election which prompted Ms Palaszczuk to declare she was "fed up" with her own Government's delays on Adani's contentious Carmichael coal mine.

The 2.2 per cent swing against the Palaszczuk Government since the last election would cost Labor at least six seats and its grip on power in State Parliament.

SUPPORT FOR LABOR HITS NEW LOW

SUPPORT for Labor has sunk to its lowest level since February 2017, in the wake of the State Labor Government's backflip over Adani and the Jackie Trad integrity scandal.

Just 32 per cent of Queenslanders now say they would vote for Labor at the next election in October 2020, down from 35.4 per cent at the last election in late 2017.

The LNP vote statewide has crept ahead to 37 per cent, according to the Courier-Mail/YouGov poll of 1000 Queenslanders.

Meanwhile, the Greens have leapt to 13 per cent, the party's highest result in years, while Pauline Hanson's One Nation has reclaimed ground gradually lost over the last 18 months and is on 13 per cent.

FRECKLINGTON FAILS TO MAKE IMPACT

VOTERS remain unsure how they feel about state Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington, exclusive new polling has revealed.

The latest Courier-Mail/YouGov polling shows the same percentage of voters are satisfied with Ms Frecklington as are unsatisfied, locked at 30 per cent each way.

Forty per cent of those polled remain unsure.

But the LNP leader is still doing better than her predecessor Tim Nicholls did in the lead-up to the 2017 state election when just 28 per cent of voters said they were happy with his performance.

STATE CAN'T GET NO SATISFACTION

ONLY about one in three voters is satisfied with Annastacia Palaszczuk's performance, in her worst result since winning the keys to the Executive Building in 2015.

Just 34 per cent of Queenslanders are satisfied with Ms Palaszczuk's performance, according to an exclusive The Courier-Mail/YouGov poll, a drop of 12 points since February.

The percentage of voters dissatisfied with her performance has jumped to 45 per cent, with one in five voters unsure.

The last time Ms Palaszczuk's satisfaction rating dipped below 40 per cent was in August 2017, when her Government was dealing with an integrity crisis engulfing minister Mark Bailey's private email use.

PREMIER'S FALL FROM GRACE

PREMIER Annastacia Palaszczuk has suffered a massive fall from grace, with her popularity plummeting to its lowest level since she was elected in 2015.

An exclusive Courier-Mail/YouGov poll has revealed Ms Palaszczuk's standing as Queensland's preferred premier has dropped 13 per cent in just six months.

Just 34 per cent of Queenslanders now think the long-serving Labor leader is best placed to run the state, down from 47 per cent in February.

However, support for LNP Leader Deb Frecklington only edged forward marginally by two per cent to 29 per cent with the number of Queenslander uncommitted about either leader surging to 37 per cent.

Ms Palaszczuk became Leader of the Opposition in 2102 after Labor was defeated by the Campbell Newman-led LNP.

But she became Premier in 2015 after Labor regained power and won a second term in 2017.

[ozbob]

" More buses and less selfies " 

[achiruel]

Given the accuracy of the Federal polls, I'd take these with a grain of salt. As for the opposition, what exactly are they offering?

[techblitz]

Agree on the polls.....given the recent history...absolutely hopeless at predicting...
However in this case @achruel...we dont need the polls.....its not what the opposition is offering....it is about how labor can be saved.

[#Metro]

The poll is just a noise result. If you look at the previous polls from YouGov, they all affirm Red Team.

QLD has also had Red Team at the controls for most of the last 25 years.

The opposition is uncoordinated and lacks signature policy ideas, they don't even seem to be able to capitalise on the many blunders that happen either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Queensland_state_election

[aldonius]

13% for the Greens, if replicated at the election, would be easily their best result ever in Qld.

We should expect their 2020 campaign efforts to largely be a re-run of 2017. They now need only a 4% swing or so from Labor in South Brisbane and in McConnel.

[ozbob]

A couple more ' spin doctors ' have been installed in Big Willy to help with the jobs, jobs, jobs ' message '. 
Spin doctors is not what they need, they need to start doing things Govts are elected to do.  Fix up the bus networks for a start.   

[achiruel]

Wouldn't surprise me if South Brisbane will go Green, considering the issues with Trad. Might even end up with a Labor minority Government if the election is close, maybe Greens can get ALP to support some sensible PT policies in exchange for confidence/supply?

[#Metro]

13% for the Greens, if replicated at the election, would be easily their best result ever in Qld.

We should expect their 2020 campaign efforts to largely be a re-run of 2017. They now need only a 4% swing or so from Labor in South Brisbane and in McConnel.

Better make up some nice new BUZ route proposals for West End, CBD, and New Farm then!! 

Where else is marginal??

[achiruel]

Does West End genuinely need another BUZ?

New Farm, James St seems like a good idea.

How about extending the 196 to Yeronga Peninsula?

Green Bridge from St Lucia-West End?

[aldonius]

South Brisbane electorate's boundaries are as follows:
- Norman Creek from the River to Logan Rd
- Junction St, Cornwall St and the Freeway
- Junction Tce from the freeway to the railway
- the railway to Princess St
- Princess St to the River
- River back around to Norman Ck.

So IMHO the more interesting service to talk about is a Vulture St crosstown. Especially in the context of a Toowong bridge.

Also everyone needs to keep in mind that Council elections are in March next year, so we essentially have a year of campaigning starting now.


In McConnel the underserviced areas are James St (solution: upgrade the 470 and 192) and Spring Hill/northern Valley.


edit: boundaries here: https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/electoral-boundaries/state-electorate-boundaries

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk vows to take action in the wake of YouGov poll results

QUEENSLAND Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says she is willing to take "quick action" against deputy premier Jackie Trad once the Crime and Corruption Commission has finished its assessment over her integrity scandal.

Ms Palaszczuk's comments come in the wake of an exclusive Courier-Mail/YouGov poll that showed the vast majority of voters want Ms Trad either kicked out of Cabinet or stripped of responsibilities because of the unresolved scandal over her purchase of a Woolloongabba investment property near the Cross River Rail project.

"Everyone has different views. I'm out listening to Queenslanders and we are just looking at those processes right, and once we go through those processes I will not hesitate to take quick action," said Ms Palaszczuk, who was attending the Australian launch of locally-filmed blockbuster Dora and the Lost City of Gold on the Gold Coast today alongside her niece, Lucy, 7.

Ms Trad has promised to sell the $695,500 home for no profit after receiving advice from Queensland's Integrity Commissioner.

Ms Palaszczuk's popularity also took a tumble in the poll, with support for Labor trailing the LNP for the first time since May 2016.

"I'm always listening to Queenslanders," Ms Palaszczuk said. "I work hard. What we've seen today with this production is 400 local jobs, permanent jobs in the movie industry, and I want to see permanent jobs right across this state."

"I'm just going to keep working hard. That's what I've said to my team. I say it to them every day. I get up every day thinking what more can I do for this state. I love this state. And that's what I'll keep doing."

She said Queenslanders would see her every day in the coming week as parliament moves to Townsville.

Deputy Opposition leader Tim Mander today seized on the Premier's falling personal popularity in the poll to attack her handling of the integrity crisis enveloping her deputy Jackie Trad.

He said people had "lost confidence" in Ms Trad over the controversial purchase of a Wooloongabba investment property near the site of her Cross River Rail project, and "think the Premier is weak in leadership."

"The Premier needs to act and needs to take decisive action against Jackie Trad, who is showing that she cannot be trusted by most people," he told media this morning.

"It's obvious from the polling this morning that people have lost confidence in both the Premier and the Deputy Premier."

It came after 49 per cent of voters said they wanted Ms Trad booted to the backbench, while just less than a quarter wanted her to remain, but to be stripped of her role in managing the transport project.

Mr Mander also touched on Opposition leader Deb Frecklington's battle to make any significant wins in voter approval ratings in spite of the ongoing controversy gripping Labor.

"The more people that get to know Deb Frecklington the more people will like her. We are going to work hard for the next 14 moths," he said.

[James]

Wouldn't surprise me if South Brisbane will go Green, considering the issues with Trad. Might even end up with a Labor minority Government if the election is close, maybe Greens can get ALP to support some sensible PT policies in exchange for confidence/supply?

Any demands by the Greens would probably centre around environmental matters such as Adani. Unfortunately we haven't seen much from the Greens in terms of key PT reforms.

I imagine any ALP+Greens coalition would end badly for the ALP, a lot of Greens policies do not go down too well in outer suburban & regional areas, somewhere where the ALP (critically) held ground last election.

[verbatim9]

Wouldn't surprise me if South Brisbane will go Green, considering the issues with Trad. Might even end up with a Labor minority Government if the election is close, maybe Greens can get ALP to support some sensible PT policies in exchange for confidence/supply?

Any demands by the Greens would probably centre around environmental matters such as Adani. Unfortunately we haven't seen much from the Greens in terms of key PT reforms.

I imagine any ALP+Greens coalition would end badly for the ALP, a lot of Greens policies do not go down too well in outer suburban & regional areas, somewhere where the ALP (critically) held ground last election.

Agree, since holding the seat of Maiwar and the ward of the Gabba, the Greens haven't really pushed mass transit reforms the relevant areas. All I know they have been vocal for about the ABC site, against density infill, pro Green Bridges  and Adani. Most of their efforts and resources are for advocating other issues outside of their electorates they represent.

[ozbob]

Mr Berkman has been a strong supporter for DDA improvements at railway stations to be fair.  This support is appreciated.

But I hope they get focused on basic things like bus reform, all door boarding, sorting out bus stops.

[timh]

Wouldn't surprise me if South Brisbane will go Green, considering the issues with Trad. Might even end up with a Labor minority Government if the election is close, maybe Greens can get ALP to support some sensible PT policies in exchange for confidence/supply?

Any demands by the Greens would probably centre around environmental matters such as Adani. Unfortunately we haven't seen much from the Greens in terms of key PT reforms.

I imagine any ALP+Greens coalition would end badly for the ALP, a lot of Greens policies do not go down too well in outer suburban & regional areas, somewhere where the ALP (critically) held ground last election.

Agree, since holding the seat of Maiwar and the ward of the Gabba, the Greens haven't really pushed mass transit reforms the relevant areas. All I know they have been vocal for about the ABC site, against density infill, pro Green Bridges  and Adani. Most of their efforts and resources are for advocating other issues outside of their electorates they represent.

Jonathon Sri is not against High density infill, he just wants it done properly. he's a big proponent of transit oriented development, active transport, etc. He opposes a lot of high density residential applications in the area but each is case by case, and he usually opposes them on pretty relevant grounds (ie pushing the boundaries on what they can get through a DA, like pushing the height limit, developer not contributing enough to public infrastructure, etc).

His general view is high density infill is great, provided that enough infrastructure is provided to support it ie public transport. A very sensible opinion if you ask me.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[verbatim9]

Qld LNP Campaign 2020 Tshirt #Deb 2020

[Stillwater]

So, the message won't be 'VOTE LNP', but 'Vote Deb 2020'?  Sounds like the LNP plans a presidential style campaign (a la Vote ScoMo), with Deb Frecklington going head-to-head with Anna Palasczczuk, face of the ALP.

[verbatim9]

A lot of work still required for LNP to secure Government at the 2020 Election

Couriermail------>https://www.couriermail.com.au/rendezview/lnps-queensland-win-not-a-done-deal-just-yet/news-story/6a4cf71cd298a78b823ec800b7add9a7

The weekend's Courier-Mail YouGov poll has finally confirmed what most Queenslanders already know: the Palaszczuk Government is struggling for credibility, for trust, and even for its own survival.

With Labor's primary vote now slumped at 32 per cent (down three points since February and 3.4 since the election), the Government is not only going in the wrong direction, it's getting dangerously close to irrelevance.

By contrast, the LNP's primary vote of 37 per cent is moving so satisfyingly in the right direction — up two points since February and up 4.3 since the election — that Opposition leader Deb Frecklington must already be dot-pointing an election night victory speech.

But the poll's after-preference vote tells a different story of how the LNP must harvest a hell of a lot of preferences from Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Bob Katter's Australian Party and — if it's still around — Clive Palmer's United Australia Party just to get over the line. It's even more of a task when we remember the hordes of populist voters who preferenced Labor at the LNP's expense in 2017.

With Labor's primary vote now slumped at 32 per cent, the Government is only going in the wrong direction. Picture: Mark Cranitch
That's why the poll's after-preference vote is surprisingly close at just 51 to 49 in the LNP's favour. Yes, any election today would see Labor lose six seats — all but one in the regions — and government in a 2.2 per cent swing. But that's hardly a wipe out.

In fact, the 49-51 split is inside the poll's margin of error and, even if accurate, certainly small enough for Labor to recover over the next 60 weeks before the 2020 election.

That fact alone is seen in Premier Palaszczuk's wide grin as seating was fitted in Townsville's North Queensland stadium — just in time to coincide with state parliament's sitting in a city hosting two of Queensland's most marginal Labor seats.

Expect a lot more touchy-feely rhetoric everywhere north of Morayfield and west of Ipswich in a bid to re-engage regional Queensland. Expect also an increase in Labor's after preference vote before October 2020.

But senior figures in each of the major parties tell a couple of other stories that, paradoxically, are in general agreement about what we can expect at the next election.

A senior Labor figure, for example, told me Labor MPs are indeed concerned about the party's primary vote but, given recent events — the Adani backflip, the Trad saga, leaked ASIO names, integrity questions in the Premier's own office, hospital ramping and other own-goals — the after-preference vote was "better than expected".

"I certainly don't get a sense of panic [in the party]," the source said. "We can turn it around with a focus on jobs, health, education and infrastructure."

But surely the Trad debacle is testing the patience and loyalty between, and within, Left and Right factions as unions call on Palaszczuk to remove the Deputy Premier?

"The party isn't divided," the figure said. "But clearly some [in the party room] want Trad to stay and others want her to go."

I was also told that, despite YouGov finding half of Queensland wanting Trad dismissed and another quarter demanding she be at least stripped of Cross River Rail responsibilities, there is no chance of Palaszczuk removing the Deputy Premier before the Crime and Corruption Commission acts.

Remarkably, a senior LNP figure gave a similar assessment of the weekend's poll, with the figure conceding the mammoth task ahead given the Opposition's own modest primary and after-preference vote tallies.

A senior LNP figure concedes the party and Frecklington has a mammoth task. Picture: AAP/Jono Searle
"We definitely still have work to do," the source said. "Those figures paint a tale of woe for Palaszczuk, but also show we could struggle to win. We still have to convince a large chunk of the electorate."

And while the source was adamant no one inside the party room is even thinking of challenging Frecklington, the figure conceded MPs were painfully aware of an opposition leader's role to find "a balance between being relevant and hitting key messages".

The allusion to Frecklington's energy and enthusiasm in fronting up for nightly news grabs, but missing the mark because she appears one-dimensional and pernickety, is not lost on the 34 per cent who still rate Palaszczuk the better premier, with 37 per cent of no opinion and just 29 per cent opting for Frecklington. The fact just 30 per cent of voters approve of the Opposition leader's performance (the same number who disapprove) also speaks volumes.

Ultimately, Palaszczuk — despite her poor handling of the Trad affair — remains Labor's best asset. And Frecklington, who looks good on paper, could yet become an LNP millstone.

We'll know for sure in about 14 months.