Monthly all line OTR Summaries - discussion

[ozbob]

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1149560378432479233

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

13th July 2019

Some further comments on the Queensland Rail Citytrain on-time running performance

Good Morning,

Looking at the lines ranked on 2019 Combined peak OTR FMA and CI performance, worst to best. Average January to May. CI (Customer Impact) is what passengers actually experience. FMA (Force Majeure Adjusted) has factors outside QR control (e.g. bridge strikes, police incidents, severe weather etc. removed). Hence FMA OTR will always be a better figure than the CI metric. Most of the lines have good peak OTR profiles and this is commendable by Queensland Rail, particularly when you consider that apart from the Sunshine and Gold Coast, and Rosewood lines ( 5 minutes 59 seconds), on time is the tightest in the nation at 3 minutes 59 seconds for on time. If the Caboolture and Redcliffe Peninsula lines can be improved, happy days!


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=13328.msg223209#msg223209

So far we only have two months of the complete all lines OTR data. Looking at the averages of these two months so far (April and May) we can note that the 24/7 OTR performance is different in some aspects from the peak OTR. Obviously it is only two months but interesting.


https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=13558.msg224533#msg224533

Looking at the 24/7 FMA OTR we can note that the worse three in order are Caboolture, Sunshine Coast and Redcliffe Peninsula lines.  Cleveland and Ipswich lines marginal, the rest better than 95%.  We know that the frequency on the Sunshine Coast is poor, particularly out of peak, and problems with on-time running will have a greater impact on overall OTR than with lines that have a higher frequency.

So it is clear, the problems on the Citytrain network with respect to OTR tend to be focussed mainly on the Northern Group (Sunshine Coast, Caboolture, and Redcliffe Peninsula lines). If these problems can be addressed the overall OTR profile would be much improved. Cleveland line has a single line section from Manly to Cleveland and until this is duplicated there will be ongoing issues with this line. In the same way, the duplication of the Sunshine Coast line north of Beerburrum will allow for improvements in frequency, capacity and reliability.

Best wishes,

Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

Sent to all outlets:

12th July 2019

Queensland Rail Citytrain on-time running ...

Good Morning,

Queensland Rail (QR) are now publishing monthly line specific summaries of on-time running and the reliability metrics ( https://www.queenslandrail.com.au/forcustomers/otr/monthly-on-time-running-results ).  This data has now been published for April 2019 (the first month) and May 2019 (the data is published on the 10th of each month for the month prior to the previous month).
QR also publishes Monthly summary data at https://www.queenslandrail.com.au/aboutus/ourperformance/service-punctuality-and-reliability and has done for some time, many years. This is gives the overall aggregate on-time running (OTR) data on a monthly basis but hides the problem lines.



https://www.queenslandrail.com.au/forcustomers/otr/monthly-on-time-running-results

We have previously been able to look at all lines individually for peak OTR using the daily data that Queensland Rail publishes ( https://www.queenslandrail.com.au/forcustomers/otr/dailyotr ), by saving the data and performing our own analysis each month ( a lot of work! ).

We are really pleased that QR are now publishing the all line specific OTR data.
It does confirm what we have known for some time though by our previous analyses, that the Caboolture and Redcliffe Peninsula lines have poor OTR, particularly at peak.  This is a little perplexing for the Redcliffe Peninsula line as it is the newest line on the network and we would expect it to be a lot better.

The other observation we can make is that as the relative (and absolute) numbers of New Generation Rollingstock trains increase and aged rollingstock is decommissioned we are still to see an improvement in OTR.

This chart shows how the peak (combined) OTR is tracking for 2018 and 2019 so far.  Prior to 2019 they used to report ' Contractual ' which was changed to ' Force Majeure Adjusted ' from January 2019.  The only difference was that technical problems with the NGR trains was treated as Force Majeure in contractual but now they are not excluded. They are essentially equivalent. There are 12 lines. The graph below shows the number of lines out of 12 that are less than 95% (the target).



https://backontrack.org/docs/qr/monthly_otr/2019/yearprogress19.jpg

As can be noted the combined peak OTR does cycle, but is worse this year.

On this web page ( https://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=13379.0 ) you can find more data that shows the longer term trends for the peak OTR.

It would be a reasonable question to ask QR as to what they are doing to try to improve the OTR for Caboolture and Redcliffe Peninsula lines?

Best wishes
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track https://backontrack.org

[ozbob]

Some further comments on the @QueenslandRail Citytrain on-time running performancehttps://t.co/v3WWq3Bze0#qldpol
⌚️ pic.twitter.com/5rKuRNl4iy

— RAIL_BoT_Forum (@railbotforum) July 12, 2019

[ozbob]

The Gold Coast line is a consistent high flyer when it comes to OTR.

Probably a few factors help.  Relatively few station stops, unrestricted running south of Beenleigh, no more single track sections. 

And the generous 5 minute 59 second on-time determination helps a bit too I guess.  But, still, it is a good performer.

[ozbob]

This is the averages so far of the QR individual lines OTR (only April and May)



The Sunshine Coast is not doing that well on the 24/7 metrics ... 

====

Ranked from worse to best 24/7 FMA & CI OTR, QR for April and May average

[ozbob]

Couriermail Quest --> Newest train line misses the mark with peak performance targets

Queensland Rail figures reveal two train lines north of Brisbane are failing to meet their on-time running targets, particularly in crucial peak periods.

QUEENSLAND Rail's newest train line is also one of its worst performing, particularly during peak periods, new data shows.

QR's monthly on-time running and reliability data shows the Redcliffe Peninsula line was by far the worst at delivering trains on schedule, followed by the Caboolture line.

QR has one of the strictest on-time running (OTR) targets in the country, with 95 per cent of city trains expected to arrive at their destination within 3 minutes and 59 seconds of schedule.

The most recent data from May shows trains on the Redcliffe Peninsula line were considered on-time just 83.07 per cent of the time during peak periods (87.66 per cent force majeure adjusted), well below the 95 per cent target.

It fared better during April at 90.66 per cent OTR (95.08 adjusted).

The Caboolture line in May had 85.34 per cent of peak services OTR (88.65 per cent adjusted), and 89.99 per cent OTR in April (91.63 per cent adjusted).

Queensland Rail's CEO Nick Easy told Pine Rivers Press that the two lines shared infrastructure with Sunshine Coast services and delays on either line caused flow-on impacts.

He also said the May data was impacted by an incident at Lawnton on May 17 requiring emergency services, which subsequently caused 113 delays.

"We know any unplanned disruptions to services can be frustrating for our customers which is why Queensland Rail is always looking at ways to minimise impacts and improve our on-time running performance by having the right people and equipment in place across our network," he said.

"We have crews and equipment positioned at both Petrie and Sunshine to ensure rapid responses to incidents, particularly during peak times.

"To bolster the reliability of the network's electrical power supply, we've also installed new power substations, including at Fortitude Valley and Northgate, which will help to keep trains running in the event of an outage.

"This is in addition to our ongoing maintenance programs for both our track infrastructure and train fleet."

Rail Back on Track founder Robert Dow said the new data confirmed what they knew from previous analysis that the Caboolture and Redcliffe Peninsula lines had poor OTR, particularly during peak periods.

"The combined peak OTR does cycle from month to month, but is worse this year," he said.

"This is a little perplexing for the Redcliffe Peninsula line as it is the newest line on the network and we would expect it to be a lot better.

"The other observation we can make is that as the number of New Generation Rollingstock trains increase and aged rolling stock is decommissioned we are still yet to see an improvement in OTR.

"Though we are really pleased that QR are now publishing the all-line specific data."

[ozbob]

https://twitter.com/railbotforum/status/1153325669960437761

https://twitter.com/railbotforum/status/1153326734797938690