Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop

[ozbob]

Melbourne Age --> Auditor finds Suburban Rail Loop benefits could be overstated $

Victoria's auditor-general says the Andrews government may have overstated the benefits of its $35 billion Suburban Rail Loop and the Melbourne Airport rail link projects by failing to follow department guidelines when producing their business cases.

The Victorian Auditor-General's Office on Wednesday filed two reviews in state parliament that found the government had not properly assessed the major projects and was keeping the public in the dark about other work under way in its $184 billion infrastructure pipeline.

The report found the business cases for two major projects the government has committed to – the $35 billion eastern leg of the proposed Suburban Rail Loop and the $13 billion Melbourne Airport Rail link, which was released on Wednesday – did not support "fully informed investment decisions".

Suburban Rail Loop East, which runs from Cheltenham to Box Hill, has become a hot-button issue in the upcoming November election after the state opposition pledged to delay its construction to prioritise health spending. ...

[ozbob]

https://twitter.com/suburbanloop/status/1584454293788143616

[ozbob]

https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1586817678873808896

[ozbob]

https://twitter.com/Llib7/status/1594384181563650054

[ozbob]

https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/delivering-all-victorians-suburban-rail-loop#

Victorians With The Suburban Rail Loop

28 November 2022

Early works on the state-shaping Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) are advancing after Victorians backed the project for a second time in Saturday's state election, following a similarly emphatic endorsement four years earlier.

With trains running by 2035, SRL East will open up access to key education, health and employment centres in Melbourne's east and south east, relieving pressure on roads and slashing congestion and travel times across the network, as well as supporting up to 24,000 local jobs in the construction phase.

Those jobs were on the ballot paper on Saturday and Victorians overwhelmingly voted for ongoing investment in the transport infrastructure the state needs.

SRL will transform the public transport system, delivering the critical wheel on our hub and spokes train network and changing how people move around Melbourne.

The multi-faceted project will reshape how we grow in the decades ahead – creating major employment centres in the middle suburbs with more housing options, services, and open and public space all a short walk from an SRL train station.

SRL Airport is also underway from Sunshine to Melbourne Airport, delivering a long-awaited rail connection to the airport by 2029.

Early works have been underway in Clayton since June and the next phase of service relocations starts in Glen Waverley in the new year.

Preparatory works will also kick off at Burwood and Monash, and at Box Hill to relocate the 109 tram terminus on Whitehorse Road ahead of construction of the new Box Hill SRL station.

With the next stage of early works beginning in 2023, hundreds of local jobs and a pipeline of opportunities for apprentices, trainees and cadets will start to take shape on one of Victoria's most important projects.

Quotes attributable to Minister for Suburban Rail Loop Jacinta Allan

"Suburban Rail Loop is a project our city and state needs – and the emphatic election result shows beyond doubt that Victorians want it too."

"Suburban Rail Loop won't just transform our public transport system – slashing travel times and easing congestion – it will help manage how our city grows, creating a long pipeline of jobs and training opportunities."

[ozbob]

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ITE ANZ Seminar SRL full Trim

[#Metro]

Whether it will be a success or a failure will turn on its design.

It's a practical vs idealists thing as well.

If you build it European-style with lots of stops and expect to get passengers from walk up and have that hinge on urban centres that may or may not appear, then the design will likely be a mismatch for the urban form at hand and the line won't see much patronage.

If you build it Perth-style with very few stops, assume barely any walk-up patronage, and then put in mitigation measures such as a re-organised bus network to feed it and lots of Park & Ride space (urbanists hate this but it is a tool to be used in the tool box that has its uses) then the chances of success are much better IMHO.

Perth has managed to deliver high patronage in a very low density environment.

Application of a Railway to Low-Density Settlement.
https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-12/2009_infrastructure_colloquium_peter_martinovich.pdf

In Melbourne, the Ring-Road sees heaps of traffic, the orbital bus routes are very well patronised (similar to BUZ patronage) and the trip is slow to do by car across the city. These are signs that there is latent demand for this sort of trip.

The other thing they can do is build it in parts and stage it. By doing that they can always stop the project early if the early results from their 'experiment' do not look favourable.

[Gazza]

Yes agreed.
 I think this is leaning more towards Perth style with speed and widely spaced stops, but it has the benefit that many stations will be rail interchanges, and already have established feeder buses, so it wont need to rely too much on park and ride (Dont think there is any planned)

Also, many of the stations are already decent hubs with 30-40 story buildings.

This is Glen Waverley
https://www.google.com/maps/@-37.8805832,145.1658109,3a,75y,289.33h,98.66t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sixfugjgp85SgWwGRnOMP1g!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

This is Box hill
https://www.google.com/maps/@-37.817791,145.1225945,3a,90y,306.67h,123.25t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sgzA89Ar2nv4aFyTXxMSVBg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

Imagine what will happen when they are linked by an additional line!

Then of course the other new stops are at universities etc which are underserved.

By definition any sort of transit project like this is going to be an 'experiment' because other low density countries like the US simply don't do them, and what Canada does is good but they seem to want to build the bare minimum.

I think it does peter out a bit in the western suburbs. Eg the next stage Doncaster and Heidelberg and Latrobe Uni Bundoora will probably do well, but Reservoir, Fawkner, Broadmeadows etc need to catch up a bit.

[ozbob]

Herald Sun --> RMIT Professor Michael Buxton says the Suburban Rail Loop will radically transform Melbourne into a high rise city around 15 precincts $

The Andrews Government has been accused of "mass deception" over plans to squeeze one million extra people into precincts around Suburban Rail Loop stations.

Three eminent planning and transport academics say high rise suburbs in middle Melbourne will be required to meet population forecasts in the project's business case, and to justify a price tag of at least $125 billion.

At a recent public lecture to the Institute of Transportation Engineers, Professor Michael Buxton, Professor Graham Currie, and Professor John Stanley said that despite the obvious desire to build up, there was no information about rules allowed or even likely. ... "

[#Metro]

1 million / 15 precincts = 66,000 people per precinct.

This is comparable to the population of North Sydney Council (69,000) replicated 15x around Melbourne.

It's almost certain to be tall towers with those sorts of numbers.

In a high stakes project like this they should do the most probable success section first and do it in many small stages.

[#Metro]

Why does this sound familiar? 

[ozbob]

SRL Precincts: Discussion Paper

CHELTENHAM TO BOX HILL | AUGUST 2023

https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/788203/SRL-Precincts-Discussion-Paper.pdf

[ozbob]

Rail Express --> TBMs on the way for SRL

Up to 10 tunnel boring machines (TBMs) will be used in 2026 and thousands of jobs created on the city-shaping Suburban Rail Loop, as the Victorian Government announced the preferred bidder for the first tunnelling contract for SRL East.

SRL East will create up to 8000 direct jobs and deliver six new underground stations between Cheltenham and Box Hill – slashing travel times and congestion and connecting people to key employment, health and education destinations in Melbourne's east and south east.

A 16-kilometre section of twin tunnels between Cheltenham and Glen Waverley will be constructed by Suburban Connect, a consortium of global leaders in tunnelling including CPB Contractors, Ghella and Acciona Construction and with extensive experience in Victoria and Australia. ...

[ozbob]

Melbourne Age --> Special levy could be needed for Suburban Rail Loop funding hole, experts say $

Victoria could be forced to impose new taxes or levies to pay for the $34.5 billion Suburban Rail Loop East as the Andrews government faces a multibillion-dollar funding hole in its flagship project.

Economists and property tax experts say the revenue measures proposed in the SRL East business case would raise billions of dollars less than what the government needs.

"The maths would say you're not going to get to remotely close to whatever the target is," said Nigel Stapledon, a former Westpac chief economist and now a researcher in property economics.

Victoria has committed $11.8 billion to the new underground rail line between Cheltenham and Box Hill and secured $2.2 billion from the Albanese government ahead of tunnelling starting in 2026.

But the SRL business case is based on the Commonwealth boosting its contribution to $11.5 billion – about one-third of the total cost. ...

You cannot view this attachment.

[#Metro]

Investment and Financing are separate things, but they travel together. Financing is how you get the money, Investment is what you spend it on.

The initial sections of the SRL appear to have a net benefit, so not much of an issue there.

Raising the finances (savings, loans, taxes) will be a challenge as Victoria is in a major debt position and much of the own-revenue raised is from stamp duties on property which is 'lumpy'.

Some of the proposals floating around include intensive development around stations and value capture on that, or phasing out stamp duties in favour of land taxes more broadly.

Either way, it is going to be a real challenge.

[ozbob]

The Age --> Full steam ahead for Suburban Rail Loop despite belt-tightening by Canberra $

The Victorian government is pushing ahead with plans to start tunnelling the $34.4 billion first stage of the Suburban Rail Loop despite Canberra refusing to commit funding for the project beyond an initial $2.2 billion pledged by Anthony Albanese during last year's federal election campaign.

Victoria is close to signing its first major works contract associated with the mammoth project, an agreement worth between $3 billion and $4 billion for the Suburban Connect consortium to bore the space needed for twin rail tunnels to run between Cheltenham and Glen Waverley in Melbourne's south-east.

The contract, once completed, will make the government liable for a huge damages bill if the project is subsequently abandoned.

According to this year's state budget papers, the Victorian government has allocated $11.8 billion towards SRL East, the first section of the project, and is "seeking a matching contribution from the Commonwealth government". ...

[ozbob]

https://x.com/urbanizationist/status/1722079455865458881?s=20

[Gazza]

The funny thing is Fairfax were against the Metros in Sydney and this.
Im not sure why SRL is a comparable project to Geelong fast rail or airport rail.

If it was a choice between SRL and MM2, then we can talk.

[ozbob]

The Age --> High-rises could be needed to fill Suburban Rail Loop funding hole $

High-rise apartment towers may be approved around new Suburban Rail Loop East stations to maximise developer levy revenue to help pay for the $34.5 billion project, experts believe.

The Allan government is facing a multibillion-dollar funding hole in the eastern suburbs underground train line, as the Commonwealth refuses to commit beyond Labor's $2.2 billion federal election pledge. ...

[ozbob]

https://x.com/abcnews/status/1731594336507183339?s=20

[#Metro]

^ Revealing thing about this video was how the whole ecosystem, from think tanks, consultancies, public service etc seem to be ex-political staffers or ex-MPs or have close links with them.

[ozbob]

12 Dec 2023

First major contract awarded for SRL tunnels

https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/news/suburban-rail-loop/first-major-contract-awarded-for-srl-tunnels

The first tunnels contract has been awarded for Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) East, with tunnelling to start in 2026, transforming Melbourne's public transport network and creating thousands of jobs. A consortium of global tunnelling experts has been awarded the $3.6b Tunnels South contract to build 16km of twin tunnels between Cheltenham and Glen Waverley.

CPB Contractors, Ghella and Acciona Construction have extensive experience in Victoria and Australia as well as overseas. The contract includes several industry-leading innovation and environmental initiatives, which will help make SRL East one of the most sustainable projects in Australia's history.

The 4 tunnel boring machines (TBMs) for this section will be powered by renewable electricity, and construction and materials emissions will be reduced by 20%.

On the jobs front, opportunities will be boosted for skilled workers and training and at least 12% of hours to be worked by trainees, apprentices and cadets.

The contract will also include 55 safety cross passages between the tunnels, station boxes at Clayton and Monash and the construction of portals – the entrances and exits to the tunnels – at the stabling facility.

In a win for our local communities, most of the ground preparation works required to excavate safety cross passages between the twin tunnels will be managed underground, reducing surface impacts on residents, schools and roads.

SRL East will create up to 8000 direct jobs and deliver 6 new underground stations between Cheltenham and Box Hill, slashing travel times and congestion, and connecting people to new housing options and key employment, health and education destinations in Melbourne's east and south east.

Construction is progressing across the SRL East corridor, with workers in Burwood using excavators, cranes and pile-drilling rigs to build a 19m deep, 38m long and 29m wide TBM launch site.

In addition, 2 shortlisted bidders for the Tunnels North contract between Glen Waverley and Box Hill are now at the Request for Proposal stage, with the contract to be awarded next year.

In a separate package of works, 2 consortia have been shortlisted to build the fleet of high-tech SRL trains, signalling system, and operation and maintenance of the SRL East network. This Linewide Alliance contract is expected to be awarded in 2025.

[ozbob]

Herald Sun --> Questions over the Albanese government's $2.2bn commitment to the Suburban Rail Loop $

The Coalition is calling for a federal probe into Victoria's controversial Suburban Rail Loop as the Allan government surges ahead with plans to build high-rise developments along the proposed train line.

The federal opposition has written to Australia's Auditor-General and Infrastructure Australia requesting a formal investigation into the $35bn first stage of the SRL.

The Herald Sun revealed on Wednesday that swathes of suburban Melbourne were set to be transformed into high-rise developments between Cheltenham and Box Hill as the Allan government powers ahead with the SRL, despite the project not being fully funded.

In a letter sent to the commonwealth Auditor-General's Office last week and obtained by the Herald Sun, federal opposition spokesman for Infrastructure and Transport, Senator Bridget McKenzie, questioned the Albanese government's decision to proceed with its $2.2bn commitment to the troublesome project. ...

[#Metro]

Despite calls for the loop to be independently evaluated, the Albanese government has refused to subject the project – a key election commitment – to a formal assessment.

SRL may ultimately turn it out be a good project, or not. The major issue with it is the evaluation is another one horse race. 🐎

This is a common problem with projects - proponents worry it won't stack up against the alternatives like citywide rapid bus saturation - so they just omit them.

That's not the ideal of a neutral, even handed process. It's selling.

[ozbob]

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1757046531990134847?s=20

... Concerns over $2.2bn SRL election pledge
Anthony Albanese's $2.2bn commitment to Victoria's contentious Suburban Rail Loop is set to come under the microscope of the Commonwealth spending watchdog.

Auditor-General Grant Hehir is expected to launch a probe in the first half of this year after finding "merit" in opposition concerns about the election pledge.

In a letter seen by the Herald Sun, Mr Hehir says the audit would assess whether the funding approval was informed by "appropriate departmental advice" and whether appropriate steps were taken to "protect the Commonwealth's interests and obtain value for money".

"The Auditor-General is set to blow open the secrecy and lack of due process of Labor's eye watering $2.2bn spend on the Suburban Rail Loop," opposition transport spokeswoman Senator Bridget McKenzie said. ...

[ozbob]

Herald Sun --> Bombshell report finds Suburban Rail Loop projected to blow out by $16bn $

The cost of building and running the Allan government's new underground rail loop through middle Melbourne for five decades has blown out to $216 billion, an independent analysis shows.

Parliamentary Budget Office estimates show the first two stages of the Suburban Rail Loop – between Cheltenham in Melbourne's southeast and Tullamarine Airport – will cost about $16bn more than was forecast in a 2022 assessment.

The updated cost includes a $9bn blowout in construction and maintenance, which are blamed on rising costs and supply chain shortages, and now expected to cost $134bn. ...

[#Metro]

Operational costs are part of the total cost. Because no benefits happen without paying the operating cost, especially PT which is about service not just infrastructure. And the operation isn't free. CAPEX and OPEX however should be reported separately, along with the total.

[ozbob]

The Age --> Voters won't know Suburban Rail Loop cost until after 2026 election $

Victoria's transport infrastructure minister says the independent budget watchdog's estimate for how much it will cost to build the second stage of the Suburban Rail Loop is wrong – but he refused to reveal how much the government thinks the project will cost.

Instead, Danny Pearson says the government probably won't even calculate the costs of the most expensive infrastructure project in Victoria's history until after voters go to the ballot box at the 2026 election. ...
 

[ozbob]

https://x.com/RailExpressNews/status/1782186444485956057

[ozbob]

29 Apr 2024

SRL stations a step closer

https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/news/suburban-rail-loop/srl-stations-a-step-closer

[#Metro]

Suburban Rail Loop

I reckon bits of this are likely to be cancelled. Big build or just Big Bill? 

[ozbob]

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1791510645135077417

[ozbob]

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1795843081201471597

[ozbob]

Rising tension over the Suburban Rail Loop | 7 News Australia

[ozbob]

Preferred bidder announced for second tunnelling contract

https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/news/suburban-rail-loop/preferred-bidder-announced-for-second-tunnelling-contract

Consortium Terra Verde is the preferred bidder for the second SRL East tunnelling contract to build the 10km of twin tunnels between Glen Waverley and Box Hill.

The global consortium of WeBuild S.p.A, GS Engineering and Construction Australia and Bouygues Construction Australia has deep experience in Victoria and overseas, including the Metro Tunnel Project, North East Link, the Forrestfield-Airport Link in Perth and Copenhagen's Cityringen Metro.

Detailed negotiations are now underway, and the Tunnels North contract will be awarded later this year. ...

More > https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/news/suburban-rail-loop/preferred-bidder-announced-for-second-tunnelling-contract

[ozbob]

The biggest project in Victorian history is shrouded in secrecy | 7NEWS

[#Metro]

Not difficult to see what the path fate will likely take with this project. Not saying it is good or bad, just what is the likely outcome given the situation:

1. Cost will continue to escalate, as they have will all Priority A corridor projects whether they are PT or road.

2. Vic Gov will cope by pushing out the timeline for certain sections or keeping them timeline undefined.

3. Further financial squeeze, which means that the line will likely be pared back or diluted to a more basic version.

4. Because the project window is so long, it has great exposure to change of government risk, and likely will be stopped at some point due to this.

The latest Sydney Metro figures are around $1 billion / km.

It is not looking good, especially when compared against a low or no-infrastructure planning/service based approach :  A comprehensive bus review and bus service boost across Melbourne.

IMO given these factors, it is likely only a short portion of it will be built.

The only rescue I can see is if the Victorian Government somehow pulls off a highly ambitious TOD plan with excellent execution that is revenue-positive such that the infrastructure costs can be substantially offset. How viable this strategy is can be tested in the initial phase with the first few stations that are built.

[ozbob]

Herald Sun --> Victoria at risk of record low credit rating if it proceeds with Suburban Rail Loop $

Jacinta Allan has been issued a warning over her beloved $34bn Suburban Rail Loop, told by a global ratings agency to ditch the project or send the state nosediving into mammoth debt.

Victoria is at risk of a record low credit rating if it pushes ahead with the Suburban Rail Loop, a move which would damage the state's finances and hit taxpayers with an even greater debt bill. ...

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1825192112520147431

[ozbob]

https://x.com/ozbob13/status/1829193698212729164

[ozbob]