2. Why was the order reduced from 100 to 75 six car NGR trains?

[ozbob]

Why was the order reduced from 100 to 75 six car trains?

[ozbob]

Why was it reduced to 75 6-Car Units?

- We know that the 100, 120, 200 and 220 Series are being overhauled/upgraded as part of a mid-life extension program.  This can be seen in the recent transfer of SMU 202 and 210 to Walkers/Downer in Maryborough.  That's 28 6-Car Units (10+4+12+30 3-Car Units) accounted for.
- We know the 160 and 260 Series will also undergo some form of upgrade program. That's 32 6-Car Units (28+36 3-Car Units) accounted for.
- We know the EMU is being withdrawn and that's 43.5 6-Car Units (or 87 3-Car Units).
- We know the ICE is being withdrawn and that's 4 6-Car Units (or 8 'Power Pair').
- That's a total of 107.5 6-Car Units.

After the retirements of all EMU and ICE and the addition of the 700 Series, there will be a total of 135 6-Car Units.

QR trumpeted a fleet increase of 30 percent which equates to a total of 140 6-Car Units.  The bean counters have obviously found fleet management/allocation savings of 5 6-Car Units some where in their little balance sheet.

http://brizcommuter.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/will-qrs-rail-fail-impact-cross-river.html

... Without sustained driver (and train crew) recruitment throughout the next 6 to 8 years, timely orders for approximately 42 additional 6-car trains, and multiple infrastructure projects, it will be difficult to achieve to proposed service patterns for Cross River Rail when it opens in the mid-2020s. Failures in any of these areas will result in a repeat of Rail Fail where there were insufficient drivers and trains to operate the October 2016 timetable after the opening of the Redcliffe Peninsula Line. This would result in sub-optimal train services on both the existing train network and on train lines that that will run through CRR. Given Queensland's track record of blundering transport planning, BrizCommuter is feeling rather pessimistic. You heard it here first - #CRRrailfail.

[ozbob]

http://www.queenslandrail.com.au/aboutus/organisation/citytrain-fleet

200 series that will be 30 years old in 2024, and the 220 series hit 30 years old in 2030.

[ozbob]

We understand there is an option for a further 25 NGR trains.  An option unlikely to be exercised in view of the Governments build in Queensland policy, unless there is a local build consortium set up.  This would be possible as clearly 75 NGRs are not enough trains to service the demands in 2024.  A local build consortium could build another 50?  But at what cost.

Don't forget there is never really 100% availability of a train fleet.  So assuming 95% availability (realistic) 95% of 135 (present projected fleet) is ~128 and this includes the 200s which will be approaching 30 years in 2024 (12 three cars = 6 six cars).

Enough?  Nope ...

Interesting thing was the original concept was 200 3 car trains, changed to 75 six trains in 2011!  It is clear I think that proper consideration of Cross River Rail and service improvements was not taken into account at that time.   Half baked as usual ...

[ozbob]

https://twitter.com/Robert_Dow/status/997517005740654592

[verbatim9]

https://twitter.com/Robert_Dow/status/997517005740654592

Better get cracking on a Driver Only implementation plan as well as buying some new trains. The current  operational model is unsustainable with guards and drivers operating trains. #qld @QueenslandRail #publictransport @TransLinkSEQ @TMRQld  #Qld2024 https://t.co/Xp0ftHGoDz


https://twitter.com/verbatim18/status/998394295269801985

[PoliticalFootball]

We understand there is an option for a further 25 NGR trains.  An option unlikely to be exercised in view of the Governments build in Queensland policy, unless there is a local build consortium set up.  This would be possible as clearly 75 NGRs are not enough trains to service the demands in 2024.  A local build consortium could build another 50?  But at what cost.

Don't forget there is never really 100% availability of a train fleet.  So assuming 95% availability (realistic) 95% of 135 (present projected fleet) is ~128 and this includes the 200s which will be approaching 30 years in 2024 (12 three cars = 6 six cars).

Enough?  Nope ...

Interesting thing was the original concept was 200 3 car trains, changed to 75 six trains in 2011!  It is clear I think that proper consideration of Cross River Rail and service improvements was not taken into account at that time.   Half baked as usual ...

We won't go back to 3 car trains now. Even if future orders will be built at Downer, with the extension of their shed to accommodate 6 car units that's what they will build. The network is being modified to accommodate 6 car units everywhere so we won't go backwards.