Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line (was CAMCOS, North Coast Connect)

[Stillwater]

Are we seeing some slippage in the delivery of the Business Case for the North Coast Connect project?

www.northcoastconnect.com.au says:

"The finalised business case will be provided to the Commonwealth and Queensland Governments for review when completed in early 2019.
Infrastructure Australia and the Commonwealth Government, in conjunction with the Queensland Government, can then consider whether the North Coast Connect project should advance to more detailed planning and design."

www.fastrail.com.au says:

"The North Coast Connect Consortium is to deliver a business case to the Australian Government in the first half of 2019."

Yet TMR's North Coast Connect factsheet states:

"The business case is expected to be presented to the Australian Government in 2019."

So that means by the end of December, not early or mid-year. 

[Fares_Fair]

The Business Case for the North Coast Connect project is due to be handed down in July.

[ozbob]

The Business Case for the North Coast Connect project is due to be handed down in July.

[Fares_Fair]

It was completed in December 2019.

It went to the National Faster Rail Agency (NFRA) in December 2019.
This body was formed in July 2019 and gained its first CEO, Mr Barry Broe in January 2020.

The Business Case went to the State Govt in February 2020 and to Infrastructure Australia on 18 August 2020.

[ozbob]

Sunshine Coast Daily --> Probe into rail business case may not go ahead $

...  In the recent advice provided to Mr Addison, the audit office advised it had passed Mr Addison's concerns on for consideration in the development of the audit office's 2021-22 Annual Audit Work Program.

But the audit office also explained submissions to the draft work program had to be related to the performance or expenditure of Commonwealth public sector entities.

Given the North Coast Connect Consortium, which had shared in $20 million worth of federal funding for business case development split across three rail projects, was a private sector group, it was unclear whether or not the audit office would be able to investigate. ...

[ozbob]

^

Good work FF, but I fear it will be buried under a pile of bureaucratic bull s%%% ...

[Stillwater]

Sunshine Coast Daily --> Funding snub as $5.3bn Coast fast rail fails to stack up $

Funding snub as $5.3bn Coast fast rail fails to stack up

Infrastructure Australia has sent a Coast fast rail proposal back to the drawing board, saying benefits highlighted in the project's business case failed to stack up against its $5.305bn cost.

A business case evaluation summary scheduled for public release on Friday said Infrastructure Australia had excluded the North Coast Connect proposal on its infrastructure priority list. ...

[Stillwater]

Meanwhile, in its Beerburrum-Nambour Rail Upgrade project evaluation summary, IA says this:

There are three overarching problems:

(1)   Insufficient capacity to meet current and future freight and passenger demand–Operator-preferred freight paths on the North Coast Line will reach capacity by 2023 and further growth in freight demand will have to be met by road as there will be insufficient available train paths. For passenger services, demand is forecast to exceed capacity by 2021.

(2)   Competition between freight and passenger services on the North Coast Line–The priority given to passenger services results in disruptions, service unreliability and increased travel times for freight. Freight services are generally constrained to operating in off-peak periods, resulting in decreased commercial path availability to freight operators who need to meet 'end of supply chain' delivery timeframes.

(3)   Ageing infrastructure and poor track geometry–This results in reduced train speeds, extended freight and passenger services delays and constrained freight train lengths.

[ozbob]

Yo,  I think we need to focus on getting stage 1 through to Landsborough North as a priority.

Then improvements from there to Nambour.

North Coast Connect is #fastraildreaming 

[ozbob]

IA: North Coast Connect

Developed as part of the Australian Government's Faster Rail Prospectus process, the North Coast Connect proposal is designed to provide a faster rail connection between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast. This will include a new dedicated track along the existing North Coast Line between Brisbane and Beerwah, and a new rail corridor to connect coastal population centres including Maroochydore and Caloundra to the North Coast Line.

The business case was accepted for Infrastructure Australia's evaluation on 18 August 2020.

On 8 December 2020 Infrastructure Australia concluded its independent evaluation of the North Coast Connect project and determined it will not include the project on the Infrastructure Australia Priority List at this time.

North Coast Connect (PDF: 260.42 KB)
Read a summary of our evaluation of the business case

[timh]

Honestly reading that summary of the report by IA makes it seem like the business case was pretty shoddily put together. It also paints a picture of the absolutely astronomical costs involved with parts of this project.

Some takeaways:

- It seems as though the business case was put together with not enough input from the Queensland government, with next to no input from QR. The NCC Consortium seemed to be putting it together with their business interests at heart first and foremost.

- This was evident in things like highly overestimating growth and demand, and the lack of value to the end user..

- The business case also trouted NCC as the major things that will add benefit to the rail user of the Sunshine Coast, not taking into account the benefits that would actually be absorbed by current projects like the B2N Stage 1 duplication already underway, which meant that benefits of this project were further overstated.

- Some of the most expensive parts of the project appear to be the tunnel through Little Mountain, all the river crossings required (especially north of Kawana), the quadruplication from Northgate to Bald Hills and the triplication Petrie-Beerwah

- The alignment apparently uses the "Exhibition Line" from Roma Street. I'm assuming it means CRR but it could very well mean it was proposed to use the surface tracks like the TravelTrain services do. Idk it was pretty vague.

- This was the cheapest version of the proposal.

• Narrow Gauge
• Terminus at Maroochydore, not SCA
• Only three stations on the CAMCOS route (Caloundra, Kawana, Maroochydore)
• Single track for a majority of its length
• No tilting rollingstock (in fact no rollingstock was included in the costs at all)
• No NWTC
• Only 2tph in peak (what a joke)

Honestly if this budget version can't pass IA's tests there's no way the more expensive version to SCA w/ NWTC included would ever fly in our lifetime.

[SurfRail]

The business case sounds fairly diabolical, but don't forget IA is using discount rates that are way out of date, which produces a stupidly low NPV.

Also, any properly conceived project would not result in the NWTC being built only to carry 2 non-stopping trains per hour.  There's also no consideration of freight because the proponent has nothing to do with it.

I always suspected this one would get absolutely nowhere with IA, looks like I was right.

[timh]

The business case sounds fairly diabolical, but don't forget IA is using discount rates that are way out of date, which produces a stupidly low NPV.

Also, any properly conceived project would not result in the NWTC being built only to carry 2 non-stopping trains per hour.  There's also no consideration of freight because the proponent has nothing to do with it.

I always suspected this one would get absolutely nowhere with IA, looks like I was right.

I read your post in the other thread on this topic, I appreciate the nuance! I didn't know that stuff about IA so that is a very good thing to consider indeed.

The business case also didn't include land value capture as a part of the revenue raising which I think is a missed opportunity so you may very well be right that IA might be the one in the wrong here.

I still think that at $5.3bn it's incredibly expensive for the most budget version of the project though

Sent from my SM-G780F using Tapatalk

[#Metro]

I'm not surprised.

IA needs to be consistent with projects and applied a consistent discount rate. It's probably doing 7% across the board.

There are a lot of upgrades that need to be done separate to the spur to Maroochydore to make it work. And IA has just concluded that building a $5 bn rail line for just 2 tph isn't worth it... which is obvious.

Frequency will need to be far better if you want to justify rail. It would be interesting to see how a rapid light rail + connect option would fare.

If you want to dispute the discount rate, just ask IA what discount rate would be required for the project NPV to be zero or the BCR to be 1.

I think a worthwhile aim is to consider LRT + connect plus a double track single station project at Caloundra. Even just getting "a foot in the door" with one station might be the way to go.

[Gazza]

The metro to badgerys creek airport didnt meet a positive BCR either, yet is getting funded.

[Gazza]

I'm probably going to compose an email to relevant members, but here are the key things they got wrong.

-Dual benefits of a NWTC route.
The proposed options included a dedicated brownfield track from Northgate, or a track via the NWTC seemingly only used the NCC service.
A properly developed NWTC line would be able to share benefits in 4 ways.
-A faster route for Nambour and Maroochydore trains than the present route via northgate.
-the NWTC would also provide a faster route for Kippa Ring trains
-the NWTC section would be able to be used by local trains for the NW suburbs, providing places like Everton Park and Albany Creek rail access for the first time
-Reallocation of trains onto the NWTC route would free up freight capacity via Northgate.

However the assessment seemed to look at only how the infrastructure would be utilised by a Maroochydore train and the benefits of that, and not how a new track would have multiple flow on benefits.

-Low proposed frequency
The proposal looked at a 60 min frequency off peak and a 30 min frequency in peak. In other words, a very low utilisation of infrastructure and a fairly inconvenient service for passengers with long wait times between services.
Other rail projects in Australia over comparable distance / travel time / population catchment would be a better predictor of service levels, eg:

-Mandurah – 50 min travel time, 10 min peak, 15 min offpeak.
-Geelong – 60 min travel time, 15 min peak, 20 min offpeak
-Gold Coast – 70 min travel time, 7 min peak, 30 min offpeak

-High Discount Rates
IA uses very high discounting rates (7%) which doesn't seem to reflect what will be a low interest environment for many years.
The Cost Benefit analysis should take a longer term view with rail projects, for example the Gold Coast rail line is 25 years old now, but is still seeing growing usage, and benefits such as new stations in growth areas like Pimpama. It still feels like a very young asset with lots of future potential.

[ozbob]

The metro to badgerys creek airport didnt meet a positive BCR either, yet is getting funded.

VIP Gazza.  Very important point.  The Feds are happy to tip in billions for rail in Victoria and NSW, even without business cases.

Queensland has been getting the rough end of the pineapple for a while now ..

[Gazza]

The metro to badgerys creek airport didnt meet a positive BCR either, yet is getting funded.

VIP Gazza.  Very important point.  The Feds are happy to tip in billions for rail in Victoria and NSW, even without business cases.

Queensland has been getting the rough end of the pineapple for a while now ..

We've been getting the pineapple top end first!

[timh]

I'm probably going to compose an email to relevant members, but here are the key things they got wrong.

-Dual benefits of a NWTC route.
The proposed options included a dedicated brownfield track from Northgate, or a track via the NWTC seemingly only used the NCC service.
A properly developed NWTC line would be able to share benefits in 4 ways.
-A faster route for Nambour and Maroochydore trains than the present route via northgate.
-the NWTC would also provide a faster route for Kippa Ring trains
-the NWTC section would be able to be used by local trains for the NW suburbs, providing places like Everton Park and Albany Creek rail access for the first time
-Reallocation of trains onto the NWTC route would free up freight capacity via Northgate.

However the assessment seemed to look at only how the infrastructure would be utilised by a Maroochydore train and the benefits of that, and not how a new track would have multiple flow on benefits.

-Low proposed frequency
The proposal looked at a 60 min frequency off peak and a 30 min frequency in peak. In other words, a very low utilisation of infrastructure and a fairly inconvenient service for passengers with long wait times between services.
Other rail projects in Australia over comparable distance / travel time / population catchment would be a better predictor of service levels, eg:

-Mandurah – 50 min travel time, 10 min peak, 15 min offpeak.
-Geelong – 60 min travel time, 15 min peak, 20 min offpeak
-Gold Coast – 70 min travel time, 7 min peak, 30 min offpeak

-High Discount Rates
IA uses very high discounting rates (7%) which doesn't seem to reflect what will be a low interest environment for many years.
The Cost Benefit analysis should take a longer term view with rail projects, for example the Gold Coast rail line is 25 years old now, but is still seeing growing usage, and benefits such as new stations in growth areas like Pimpama. It still feels like a very young asset with lots of future potential.

Hey Gazza, these are awesome points, and I think that the dual benefit of the NWTC is a massive part of that. I think a business case for CAMCOS would probably have stacked up better if the benefits of local services on a NWTC route were included as part of it. There is a business case going for NWTC right now, idk how this stuff works but it almost seems beneficial to combine them...?

You mentioned emailing relevant members. That's something I'd love to do as well. Who would those be and is there some sort of formal process? Or do I literally just put my opinions there and hit send? Forgive my ignorance I am a noob.

[nathandavid88]

I'm a bit lost here, is this NCC Consortium plan a private plan separate to what Government has been looking at (eg TMR's Caboolture to Maroochydore Corridor Study)?

[Fares_Fair]

Yes, correct.

[#Metro]

I think a rapid light rail through the SC corridor would be worth looking at.

Could run in Class B ROW as the GC LRT does, and Class A where necessary and also for the train connection.

The question is how would the SCLRT interface with the rail network? Would the rail network be a spur to Caloundra and the interchange

put there OR would SCLRT run to an existing QR rail station on the NCL?

The reason why I raise this is with 2 tph, heavy rail trains are going nowhere. There needs to be some catering for local SC trips,

which will boost both frequency and utilisation.

What would a train system for the SC would look like if it were more designed around SC-SC destination pairs rather than just SC-BNE?

In any case - you definitely need more bums on seats to make the numbers work.

[Cazza]

I was talking to my neighbour about this just last week. He's a town planner and is currently working on a project to help plan out/shape the Caloundra CBD to be able to accommodate an extra how ever many odd thousand people in the next 20 years. Obviously with the Stockland/Aura as well as all the other rapid population growth around the area (both now and in the pipeline) Caloundra is going to be a massive focal point for the surrounding areas. Planning to manage this growth is key.

I asked him about whether heavy rail or light rail should be sent up to Maroochydore and he said both. He then mentioned that the Sunshine Coast is the biggest city/region in Australia without a form of mass transportation (no, the current Sunshine Coast line does not count), and that congestion is going to be detrimental if nothing changes soon. He was pretty optimistic that a line to caloundra would be built in the relatively near future, but unless we see shovels in the ground rather than words on a paper, I'm not holding my breath.

Ideally, the spur from Beerwah to caloundra would be banged out in the short term. It's relatively cheap (no real property resumption's) and will provide such great bang for buck. At least with the temporary terminus at Caloundra, you could easily run feeder buses up and down the coast (and dare I say have some sort of a park n ride here). This section needs to be completed ASAP for 3 reasons:
1- the Bruce hwy is really struggling. It cannot and will not cope with anymore cars on it. Aura will just create so many more journeys that could so easily be accommodated by train, if the infrastructure is there.
2- CRR and NWTC do not need to be finished before this line is built. Although the former will probably be finished even if construction on the caloundra spur started by the end of the year, the latter is not a prerequisite for this to get off the ground. Granted, it would be ideal to have the NWTC up and running at the same time, but the Caloundra line can suffice without it (for the time being that is...)
3- Probably one of the weaker reasons but it must be said, this can be the strongest one if we play our cards right... the Olympics. Although the Sunshine Coast wont host all that many events, it will still play an important role in the overall event themselves (the airport being used, having a "day" games village [if I've read it correctly], having spectators come down forom the Sunshine Coast as well as tourists heading up there). If we can somehow get a cash solash from the feds (and IOC) for infrastructure, that would be ideal in making this happen.

Long story short, we need this rail link to Caloundra sooner rather than later. And we need to let Bailey know that it's a lot sooner than he thinks.

[#Metro]

But the line costs about ~$5 BN.

The Olympics is estimated to cost $4.5 billion.

Doesn't compute.

[Cazza]

$5 billion Beerwah to Caloundra? I think it was estimated at $5 billion for Beerwah to Maroochydore

[timh]

$5 billion Beerwah to Caloundra? I think it was estimated at $5 billion for Beerwah to Maroochydore

It's estimated $5bn ROMA STREET to Maroochydore. Without any additional track amplification south of Beerwah (which the NCC had in much later stages) a simple spur line Beerwah-Caloundra should be much much less

Sent from my SM-G780F using Tapatalk

[#Metro]

It's not a bad analysis, there obviously is a larger report that isn't public - this is a summary. Are people interested in seeing the larger report?

However, the North Coast Connect project is not currently identified in
Queensland's transport strategy, and it is unclear how the proposal aligns with the Queensland
Government's passenger rail plans.

Sounds like a dead proposal was submitted to IA.

The proponent's business case reports that the costs of the project will outweigh the social,
economic and environmental benefits, with a benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 0.47 and a net present
value (NPV) of -$1,651.5 million (7% discount rate).

Why did the Queensland Government submit this with numbers like that? Were they just throwing a proposal around, hoping it would stick??

The challenging terrain in sections of the proposed route, the presence of environmentally sensitive
sites within the project area, and the level of design detail present project delivery risks. The
proponent has indicated that they will not be leading the delivery of the project and has not
confirmed who will be responsible for delivery. This contributes to project delivery risks.

What exactly does "will not be leading the delivery of the project" mean? Why not?

The detailed social cost-benefit analysis considered the two options identified by the rapid analysis:
Option 4 was developed into the 60 minutes to Sunshine Coast reference project (NCC-60).
This option involves faster rail to Maroochydore via the existing NCL and CAMCOS corridor,
and is described in further detail below

Option 6 was developed into the 45 minutes to Sunshine Coast reference project (NCC-45).
This option involves faster rail to the Sunshine Coast Airport via the North West Transport
Corridor, joining the NCL south of Pine River to Beerwah and on to the CAMCOS corridor.

The NCC-45 option is expected to generate a NPV of -$3,796 million and a BCR of 0.31 (with a 7%
discount rate). The proponent selected NCC-60 as the preferred project option on this basis.

So the NWTC was considered - and the NPV/BCR of that is even worse!!

An interim solution needs to focus on local trips within the SC- that way you will get bums on seats and high frequency/utilisation which will make it easier with the BCR/NPV later.

[Stillwater]

The North Coast Connect Consortium comprised Stockland, Urbis and KPMG. State Government was not directly involved.

[Arnz]

I do recall the LNP proposing a Caloundra to Maroochydore Heavy Rail only line (isolated from the rest of the QR SEQ network).  It was a thought bubble in some interview that never saw the serious light of day.

It did NOT stack up, considering the CAMCOS corridor is still away from the major populated part of the Coast, and at the time there was NO SCUH at Birtinya as a traffic generator.

[timh]

The proponent's business case reports that the costs of the project will outweigh the social,
economic and environmental benefits, with a benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 0.47 and a net present
value (NPV) of -$1,651.5 million (7% discount rate).

Why did the Queensland Government submit this with numbers like that? Were they just throwing a proposal around, hoping it would stick??

My understanding is that this wasn't submitted by the Queensland Government. The North Coast Connect Consortium is an entirely private venture.

The challenging terrain in sections of the proposed route, the presence of environmentally sensitive
sites within the project area, and the level of design detail present project delivery risks. The
proponent has indicated that they will not be leading the delivery of the project and has not
confirmed who will be responsible for delivery. This contributes to project delivery risks.

What exactly does "will not be leading the delivery of the project" mean? Why not?

The Consortium is made up of a bunch of property developers (Stockland et. al.) so they wouldn't be building the line, they just have a vested financial interest in seeing it completed.

[Fares_Fair]

Spot on timh,

My Op-Ed on the latest with the Fast Rail proposal to be published in the #SunshineValleyGazette on Wed 18 March 2021.

[Gazza]

What I don't get is if they were only planning to run 2tph, what was the point of the 3rd track south of Beerwah?
The current Duplication project would be able to manage that sort of frequency.

Fares_Fare, whats your view on providing NWTC earlier on?
The idea being is that Nambour passengers get a time saving downstream, but because it benefits other lines you "spread the cost" plus a freight benefit through being able to use the 3rd track via Sunshine.

[Arnz]

A little known snippet is that the Beerwah to Caloundra stretch with two stations at Golden Beach and Caloundra (or even three stations if Baringa (Aura) is to be fast tracked) can either be construction in conjunction (or after) the Beerburrum to Beerwah duplication project. 

A Caloundra spur doesn't need to wait for CRR to open, as it's only a simple extension of most existing Caboolture terminators to Caloundra. 

All that is needed is rollingstock and crew with the simple extension, in addition to scheduling and stabling facilities (It has been identified in the past that a location south of Beerwah can be used for stabling for CAMCOS and/or Nambour/Gympie shuttles).

[Fares_Fair]

Not sure Gazza, only the proponent would know. There were 2 main options presented.
I would love to see the NWTC utilised for rail services to the north ASAP (be it tunnel or on ground or above ground), given the current limitations that are not addressed by Cross River Rail.
With or without CRR we still only ever get a maximum of 4tph for the foreseeable future, and this provided by ETCSII alone.

Interestingly, the freight benefits of having a separate fast rail passenger service (perhaps freeing up a few freight paths) were not included in the business case advantages.

[timh]

A little known snippet is that the Beerwah to Caloundra stretch with two stations at Golden Beach and Caloundra (or even three stations if Baringa (Aura) is to be fast tracked) can either be construction in conjunction (or after) the Beerburrum to Beerwah duplication project. 

A Caloundra spur doesn't need to wait for CRR to open, as it's only a simple extension of most existing Caboolture terminators to Caloundra. 

All that is needed is rollingstock and crew with the simple extension, in addition to scheduling and stabling facilities (It has been identified in the past that a location south of Beerwah can be used for stabling for CAMCOS or Nambour/Gympie shuttles).

I think this is where I things get really confusing, because the stations at Aura / Beerwah East are not part of North Coast Connect, but they are part of CAMCOS.

It's essentially two separate proposals for the same alignment. CAMCOS is QLD government and has like 9 stations east of Beerwah, NCC is entirely private, only has 3 stations beyond Beerwah and is very much a "fast rail" to Brisbane proposal first, before it is a service for the Sunshine coast locally.

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[ozbob]

Sunshine Coast Daily --> Not for losers: Shift needed in public transport attitudes

A rail advocate says a cultural shift is needed to dispel negative public transport attitudes as governments consider spending billions on rail in the Sunshine Coast.

Coast resident Richard Tinning signed a petition in support of the North Coast Connect project on Friday.

But he was worried people would not use it even if it was built.

Mr Tinning raised the issue with Fisher MP Andrew Wallace on Friday after the politician spoke to media about Infrastructure Australia's decision to leave the Brisbane to Sunshine Coast fast rail project off a priority infrastructure list. ...

[#Metro]

You don't need a cultural shift. You. Need. A. Station.

I think we will just have to go salami with this.

Build ONE station on the sunshine coast. Then see what happens.

That will reduce the cost massively and probably won't require all that track work to Roma St.

Where should the station go?

Also SCC needs to have a supporting land use plan with TODs around each station, or at least the

precincts to allow it. Otherwise the BCR and NPV will not stack up for a very long time.

[Gazza]

^This

The biggest barrier in my mind to increasing public transport use is the fact it's a 19km drive or bus ride from Caloundra to Landsborough, to even get on a train in the first place.

To put in perspective, that would be like if the current line finished at Mooloolah Valley, everyone was kicked off and they had to drive the remaining distance into Nambour.

[Gazza]

Here's an image which I hope helps illustrate the geography of the issue.

The red blob is the main built up area of Ipswich.
The larger orange blob is the main built up area of the Sunshine Coast (And this doesn't include Aura yet!)

Now imagine if QR wasn't born in Ipswich, and the entire town of Ipswich had to drive 19km to Darra to access rail. Would be a disaster.

This is the daily reality for the orange blob of the Sunshine Coast.
It's about time this issue started getting some attention, you cant tell me with a straight face that a 19km bus trip to a station is an appropriate solution in the long term.

[timh]

Here's an image which I hope helps illustrate the geography of the issue.

The red blob is the main built up area of Ipswich.
The larger orange blob is the main built up area of the Sunshine Coast (And this doesn't include Aura yet!)

Now imagine if QR wasn't born in Ipswich, and the entire town of Ipswich had to drive 19km to Darra to access rail. Would be a disaster.

This is the daily reality for the orange blob of the Sunshine Coast.
It's about time this issue started getting some attention, you cant tell me with a straight face that a 19km bus trip to a station is an appropriate solution in the long term.

Totally agree with what's been said by both Gazza and Metro. In my opinion, the next most logical stage of rail upgrades to the Sunshine Coast after the duplication to Beerwah is the first stage of the spur line, with a single station at Caloundra. You would definitely need a great big Park 'n' Ride there, but it would be nice to also see some TOD-style density around the station too.

Once Aura is a bit more built up you would then add the station there as infill.