Sunshine Coast: North Coast Connect

[Fares_Fair]

Sunshine Coast Daily --> Rail advocate calls for audit office probe of Nambour 'snub'  $

This is a follow on from yesterday's article.  Local rail advocate Mr. Jeff Addison is suggesting the business case process has been "suborned" and is suggesting the Australian National Audit Office need to get involved. The local member Mr Ted O'brien has been left out of the loop.

It is all very murky .. 

https://twitter.com/ozbob13/status/1328419197395714048

Tonight I have written to the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO)  seeking an investigation into the circumstances of this business case.
It appears that $6.6 million of federal money was used to create an apparent pre-conceived outcome, 5 months before the business case was completed.

Every business case needs to be scrutinised. But Maroochydore is the best contender for fast rail. I am not against improvements North of Landsborough re: duplication and realignment etc..for faster journey times and better freight movements.

I will await the information on the Business Case.
That said, the document that the journalist gave me ruled out any other options when their financial analysis was just 30% complete.
Forgive me if I have little faith in its recommendations.

[ozbob]

North Coast Connect is just a big foam party IMHO.

[Gazza]

Politically, it seems to be driven by the feds, and they are committing billions to fast rail projects interstate.

If Geelong is getting it under the funding program, the Sunshine Coast, which is an equivalent distance and population from the capital should get it as well.

[Stillwater]

The feds rely upon the states to put forward a robust and realistic business case to justify receiving the money. When the business cases are compared, Queensland's documentation is always deficient compared with the other well-argued and researched propositions. The other states go to the head of the queue when the dollars get handed out, Queensland is left following the political line that we did not get 'our fair share'.  Project scale is changed, assumptions made, not proven etc. We still have TMR people designing rail projects. Remember Redcliffe Line?

[Fares_Fair]

Very disappointed that Nambour was excluded even before the business case was finished.
I look forward to seeing the reason/s and analysis why it was.

I saw it as a unique opportunity to extend good (conventional) rail services to Gympie.

[Gazza]

Because simply put the population is too small for a fast rail service so that probably led to its exclusion early on.

Nambour is 12,000 people at a distance of 100km.

Gympie is 22,000 people, though at a distance of 150km as the crow flies it is beyond the "commuter belt"....To put that in perspective, it is a similar distance as expecting people to commute from Byron to Brisbane, Warwick to Brisbane or Nanango to Brisbane.
There of course will be occasional users, but Gympie won't have core group of daily commuters like you see further south.

So, if i had to guess, there would be a potential market of say 25,000 people that would make use of a Nambour fast rail service (Nambour itself, plus the surrounding townships

Elsewhere in Australia, the regional fast rail services serve bigger populations that are within the magic commuter belt (Eg Geelong, 250,000 or Ballarat 100,000)
Or the line serves a string of multiple large towns (Eg Drouin 12k, Warragul 14k, Trafalgar 4k, Moe/Newborough 15k, Morwell 14k, Traralgon 25k....84k people plus minor stops.....though that all said the Gippsland line isn't that fast)
Or they serve a large coastal conurbation (Eg Mandurah and Rockingham total over 200,000)

So basically, excluding Nambour misses out on say 25,000 people , but you get 150,000 people instead between Caloundra and Maroochydore.

Another way of phrasing it, building two fast rail branches would roughly double the construction cost, but only result in 16% more passengers.

[Fares_Fair]

There are 93,315 people from Gympie to Landsborough (north of the CAMCOS spur) as at 2016 census.
Gympie does have a core of regular commuters.
Any extra rail (as Fast Rail is a separate line) could release more space for freight on the NCL.

Passenger rail is subsidised heavily.
Freight rail is not.

Extending Fast Rail to Cooroy (equivalent distance to Maroochydore) would be ideal.
Do you reckon the heavy rail would kill #SunshineCoast light rail feasibility?
It would have an adverse impact.

[timh]

Do you reckon the heavy rail would kill #SunshineCoast light rail feasibility?
It would have an adverse impact.

The Glink does not kill the Gold Coast line (or vice versa). Very similar scenario. Two different alignments with two different uses


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[Gazza]

There are 93,315 people from Gympie to Landsborough (north of the CAMCOS spur) as at 2016 census.

Is the 93,000 just people on the Bruce corridor, or does that include places like Noosa, Coolum etc?

https://profile.id.com.au/sunshine-coast

In any case, that's at most 93,000 people over a 80km stretch vs 150,000 people in a 40km stretch (Closer to 30km if the airport section is not done)

Gympie does have a core of regular commuters.

Extending Fast Rail to Cooroy (equivalent distance to Maroochydore) would be ideal.
Do you reckon the heavy rail would kill #SunshineCoast light rail feasibility?
It would have an adverse impact.

Gympie does have a core of regular commuters.

Gympie station has 12600 users per year = under 50 per day.
No government is going to be swayed to prioritise millions on such a small core user group.
At the end of the day, only 50 people in Gympie want to live 150km from work.

Extending Fast Rail to Cooroy (equivalent distance to Maroochydore) would be ideal.

Well, its actually 50km to Cooroy, versus 30km from Beerwah to Caloundra. 20km of extra rail is no small change, and as mentioned prior, its more rail for less people.

I fully understand that upgrades to the existing line benefits both passenger and freight, but its only really a moderate amount of extra freight and a smallish number of passengers that gain the benefit.

And a solution has been put forward that extending the passing loops and building 2nd platforms would fix both issues for a very long period.

But, no, we must expend all the money giving Nambour the ultimate solution, even if it means the majority of SCRC residents transport problems remain unsolved.

[Fares_Fair]

Not sure why you spend your time bagging the hinterland (you said people from the hills in a prior quote) and its incredible lack of regional support by #publictransport on a single track that also impacts freight up to Cairns.

There's NO funding for stage 2 of B2N to improve the freight task - by the way.

Not sure how you see the current SC Council plan for light rail from Maroochydore to Caloundra in the mix.

You see a population (subsidised) only picture - not the bigger picture.
We agree to disagree.

[Gazza]

Not sure why you spend your time bagging the hinterland (you said people from the hills in a prior quote) and its incredible lack of regional support by #publictransport on a single track that also impacts freight up to Cairns.

There's no funding for stage 2 of B2N to improve the freight task - by the way.

You see a population only picture - not the bigger picture.
We agree to disagree.

There's no funding for either by the way, but this could change.

To me it is a matter of population and urban form absolutely , you said yourself, passenger rail requires heavy subsidy, so I would prefer money go towards where the most people will benefit.


On one hand you say that curves around Eudlo are torturous for passengers, but on the other hand don't seem to care about addressing the torturous bus journeys endured by people from Caloundra to Maroochydore.
People on the coastal strip actually have a worse service to Brisbane than someone in Palmwoods, but this is getting zero attention.

Similarly I don't know why improvements to Gympie would take precedence over services to Maroochydore. Gympie isn't a major business hub with an airport.

Basically it is like this:

If the argument is that freight is the primary consideration for the NCL, then there is nothing wrong with extending passing loops only, and I agree this should be the first thing done after the current duplication project.

Easy to build, will provide sufficient additional freight capacity for the forseeable future, and allow for an hourly passenger, an immediate pressure release.

If the argument is that we should be going beyond that with a full duplication, then that is a substantially higher level of investment.

-Does the freight need that level of capacity right now?
-Do the potential additional passenger numbers warrant the investment?
-If the focus is on passenger benefits, then how does spending the money here mesh with other regional priorities? Eg do you prioritise spending on light rail, or camcos?

On the latter, to be honest, i think the population is too low and foreseeable freight levels not high enough to warrant full duplication yet.

[Gazza]

I saw it as a unique opportunity to extend good (conventional) rail services to Gympie.

You see a population (subsidised) only picture

So you're cool with subsidised rail to Gympie after all.

[Gazza]

Not sure how you see the current SC Council plan for light rail from Maroochydore to Caloundra in the mix.

I would stage investment on the SC like this:

1 -Extend passing loops and add additional platforms between Beerwah and Nambour

(immediate freight capacity boost and better passenger operations)

2 -Build CAMCOS to Caloundra 18km

(eliminate slow EW journey and get intial connection to coastal strip / ensure Aura is not a disaster)

3 -Build CAMCOS to Birtinya (SCUH) 6.5km

(Get heavy rail to reasonably centralised point that will act as transport node according to current plans)

4- Build LR Stage 1 Birtinya to Maroochydore 14km

(Focus on improving local travel in highest density areas, similar sucessful approach to GC LR stage 1)


5- Build CAMCOS to Maroochydoore 12km

Link cruicial SEQ business hub directly to brisbane CBD)

6- Build LR Stage 2 Caloundra to Birtinya 11km

(Complete full coastal local service)

7- Duplicate Palmwoods to Nambour 7km

Reduce length of single track section, easier to build, more bang for buck

8- Build LR Stage 3 Maroochydore to Airport in lieu of Heavy Rail 9km

Connect airport to buisiness hub and tourist district.

9- Duplicate/realign/tunnel Landsborough to Palmwoods 13km

Most expensive segment, not required until freight and passenger saturation demands continuous duplication.,

10 - Duplication/realignment Nambour to Cooroy 24km

Warranted when northern population increases.

[Fares_Fair]

I saw it as a unique opportunity to extend good (conventional) rail services to Gympie.

You see a population (subsidised) only picture

So you're cool with subsidised rail to Gympie after all.

That was just to bait you.   

[Fares_Fair]

If there's two different cost options, one is $10bn and the other is $6bn, without knowing any major details, I dare say it's likely the more expensive option is standard gauge, vs the cheaper narrow gauge option. This would match up with the SEQCOM fast rail project cost estimates, with a standard gauge option providing much higher speeds but being much more expensive.

I don't think it's likely we'd ever see a standard gauge line to the Sunshine Coast in the next few decades, so I think it's safe to assume the $6bn cost estimate is more accurate of what we'd actually be looking at if the project goes ahead.

The two options presented were narrow gauge and dual gauge with standard gauge as ultimate.

The difference between the two prices is one goes to Maroochydore and one continues to the Sunshine Coast Airport.

[Fares_Fair]

It is going to WTB. Its gone through consultation with local Government and businesses in the area and is currently before IA. The business case will prove that WTB is worthwhile as it will be a future international departure and arrival hub as well as domestic. Nambour and Beaudesert in the future will have straight enough lines in each direction to run trains up to 140kph.

Correct. 
Possibly 160km/h
There is also talk of Toowoomba using the Inland Rail corridor for passenger services.

[Fares_Fair]

There are further questions to be answered over the secret briefing document (investigation in progress) and the attendance of a high-level state government employee to a secret tour of CAMCOS (via Beerwah to Maroochydore) - before the Business Case was finished.

What was discussed?
Were records kept?
Who were party to the discussions?
Why the secrecy?
What was agreed?