Electoral chances speculation thread

[aldonius]

So it's a not uncommon occurrence around here for threads to touch on certain political parties' chances in one contest or another.

I thought it might be useful to have a single thread to direct this discussion to as necessary.



It's usually about the Greens in the inner city areas, so I'll touch on that now.

As we saw earlier this year, Jonno Sri took The Gabba Ward, so it is possible. I happen to know the Greens put a huge level of effort into that ward, and it shows in the results. When we (somewhat ill-advisedly) look at the result in South Brisbane in 2015, and in the Gabba in 2016, we see what looks to be a 10% swing to the Greens, from Labor. From all accounts Helen Abrahams was quite greenie herself, and it seems to be a good chunk of her personal vote that went to the Greens.

Coming up sometime in the next few days: another area. Probably Mount Coot-tha and Paddington Ward.

[ozbob]

I think ALP could be in trouble in South Brisbane.  We have seen in the last day or so the current member - DP Trad move to stop the development ' West Village ' in West End for now.  Cr Sri is very pleased about that ... 

[verbatim9]

Was just going through proposed bills and bills in the system of Qld parliament. Compared with passage of bills in other states doesn't seem much in progress at the moment!? Does this equate to an election coming up?

[aldonius]

We have a state redistribution in progress. I wouldn't expect to see an election until that's done.
In fact, I'm hoping this government will run until October 2017 - then the dates line up nicely for the four year terms, and we won't have council and state elections in the same year

[ozbob]

I think ALP could be in trouble in South Brisbane.  We have seen in the last day or so the current member - DP Trad move to stop the development ' West Village ' in West End for now.  Cr Sri is very pleased about that ... 

Smoke ...

Sunday Mail --> Trad under fire for 'trying to get Green vote'

QUEENSLAND'S peak business body has launched a scathing attack on Deputy Premier Jackie Trad, accusing her of considering calling in a key development purely to stop Labor bleeding votes to the Greens.

Ms Trad last week announced she would consider calling in the controversial $800 million West Village project in West End, despite previously indicating she was unlikely to do so.

The move attracted sharp criticism and accusations that the Palaszczuk Government was putting thousands of jobs at risk.

Ms Trad last week personally spoke to local Greens councillor Jonathan Sri about her decision.

She has cited community concerns over the size of the development and traffic issues, among others.

Cr Sri had earlier asked the Deputy Premier to call in the project.

And now Chamber of Commerce and Industry Queensland advocacy director Nick Behrens has taken aim at Ms Trad, saying she was potentially hurting a sector that was an essential source of jobs ...

[verbatim9]

Bad form by the State Government. There could be issues with congestion around West End? Instead of Sri advocating back to the drawing board. He should be focussing on a Mass transit solution for the area and working with council on future projects. Not calling Jackie for every single development that has been approved in West End, Woollongabba and South Brisbane, with construction on the way.

[aldonius]

More on South Brisbane:

BCC wards are a reasonable proxy for State districts, because they're only a little bit smaller.

I estimate the Greens did about 8 percentage points worse across the relevant Federal election booths in July than they did in The Gabba in March.

Some of this is Terri Butler personal vote (and a lower profile Greens candidate) some of this is federal issues drawing people back to Labor, some of this is presumably resource allocation.

I predict the Greens vote in South Brisbane will be a touch over 25%.

Edit to add: the BCC comparison was to Sri's result for councillor, who got about 32% primary -- if instead we look at Pennings' result for mayor, that was about 24%. How's that for candidate profile calibration?

[aldonius]

Well, we know now that the Greens will be following their reasonably successful approaches from the southern states and explicitly focussing their resources on their most winnable seats -- Brisbane Central, Mt Coot-tha and South Brisbane.

I don't wish to comment on Mt Coot-tha, as it's likely to get rearranged in all sorts of awkward ways in the redistribution. But we can predict how the other two are likely to go -- namely, they should contract a bit.

South Brisbane will likely lose some territory, either on its south (of Cornwall St) or east (of Norman Creek) periphery. To remove both would leave it too small now, to remove neither would leave it much too large in 7 years time. Losing the east favours the Greens a little more than the south. Still need a massive Labor -> Greens swing to actually win, or else a Liberal -> Greens swing and the benefit of Liberal preferences. Prediction: Greens > 25%, Labor retain.

Brisbane Central is projected for explosive growth in its northeast at Newstead. At a minimum it will lose all its territory north of the FG rail line. Possibly everything north of Breakfast Creek (which would require the acquisition of Petrie Terrace to keep it within quota boundaries). These changes will weaken the ALP's position and strengthen both the Greens and the LNP. Prediction: Greens > 20%, ALP/LNP tossup.

[aldonius]

It's hopefully obvious by now that I don't like speculation without supporting data.
I've now completed a set of four maps, which detail the Senate votes from July in each polling booth across the state. 

I've analysed the aggregate preferences of every party on the ballot paper, and determined which of the four elected parties (i.e. LNP, ALP, PHON & GRN) the voters of that party most preferred. Specifically I looked at each unelected party's above-the-line ballots, and determined what percentage of voters for those party preferenced each of the four elected parties in their top 6. I then assigned the unelected party to one of the four elected-party-groups depending on which one got the highest percentage of preferences.

I've then summed the vote share for each of the four groups at every polling place across Queensland, and I've mapped it all out:

Greens + Animal Justice Party, Australian Progressives, Australian Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP) Party, Drug Law Reform, Health Australia Party, Marriage Equality, Pirate Party Australia, Renewable Energy Party, Socialist Equality Party, Sustainable Australia, VOTEFLUX.ORG | Upgrade Democracy!

Labor + Australian Cyclists Party, Democratic Labour Party (DLP), Glenn Lazarus Team, Nick Xenophon Team, Secular Party of Australia, The Arts Party

Liberal Nationals + Australian Christians, Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group), Family First, Liberal Democrats, Online Direct Democracy - (Empowering the People!)

Pauline Hanson's One Nation + Australian Liberty Alliance, Citizens Electoral Council, CountryMinded, Derryn Hinch's Justice Party, Jacqui Lambie Network, Katter's Australian Party, Mature Australia, Palmer United Party, Rise Up Australia Party, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Veterans Party

[aldonius]

We now have better analysis that takes into account the new boundaries:

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/modelling-queensland-election-off.html

[aldonius]

I've built an election predictor! It's an untested toy, but it should be better than nothing for One Nation first-preference results.

You can have a play with it here: https://abjago.net/4PP-QLD-projections-from-senate-results/predictor.html

[verbatim9]

Are voting habits different on a State than Federal level? Due to different issues?
We saw that recently in the Local council elections last year. Where election outcomes were totally different from council and state.

[aldonius]

Is voting habits different on a State than Federal level? Due to different issues?

They certainly are. They also vary a bit even on the same level of government between upper and lower houses. As I said, this model is a bit of a toy.

What I'm assuming (and it's a deliberately incorrect assumption, because parties target campaigning resources on specific seats) is that the State-Federal shifts will be reasonably uniform across the state, so that if for example the Greens get 11% at a federal level and 8% at a state level, the changes to their vote are consistent in each seat.

[ozbob]

I've built an election predictor! It's an untested toy, but it should be better than nothing for One Nation first-preference results.

You can have a play with it here: https://abjago.net/4PP-QLD-projections-from-senate-results/predictor.html

Nice work!  Thanks for sharing