LNP: Brisbane Metro Plan

[ozbob]

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow now Brisbane, Queensland

Hey @Team_Quirk we know your ' metro ' is nonsense hey?

Proof > http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=11952.msg175048#msg175048 ...

#qldpol ping @CrPeterCumming why waste more $$$$ ?

[ozbob]

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow 21m

. @Team_Quirk @CrPeterCumming bus network reform will save billions $$$$.

What a tragic sad situation you have created ... resign! #qldpol

===============

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow 20m20 minutes ago Brisbane, Queensland

. @Team_Quirk @CrPeterCumming the ' Quack ' metro ..

#qldpol you have been conned Brisbane in spades ..

[ozbob]

Really is very bizarre hey. 

A quack metro that has an effective capacity of 9,000 pphpd is touted as a replacement for a busway that can achieve 15,000 pphpd. 

Proposed 3 car trains with max pax of 300.  It is some sort of hallucinogenic dream I think ..

Completely disrupt the busway network for a negative gain and cause mass transport failure.

A real Queensland effort this one ...

Bus network reform can deliver the goods for near neutral cost.   At what point does a fantasy project become an intellectual and economic  fraud? 

[ozbob]

[ozbob]

Twitter

Ruth McCosker ‏@RuthMcCosker 2h

.@Schrinner has just announced that Brisbane Metro will create 7700 jobs for the city. @QuestNewspapers

===========

^

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow 37m

@RuthMcCosker @QuestNewspapers @Schrinner sure ....


^ ^

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow 35m35 minutes ago Brisbane, Queensland

@RuthMcCosker @QuestNewspapers @Schrinner Project is a nonsense. It delivers less capacity than present busway. Will never happen ...


^ ^ ^

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow

@RuthMcCosker @QuestNewspapers @Schrinner Here is the proof >

https://t.co/dsO4TrKx5Q

[#Metro]

Create jobs? How many Brisbane Transport bus drivers would be made redundant when their jobs are replaced by the train?

Quack Quack!!

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Brisbane Metro construction will create 7000 jobs: deputy mayor

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Brisbane Metro to create 8000 jobs, claims council

[ozbob]

Errr  Brisbane media on the ball hey   

Team Quirk et al are really in the grip of some serious delusion ...

It is as though they keep talking up the ' dream ' ignoring the harsh reality of lack of capacity, route not suitable, state will not give over the infrastructure to wreck the busway network, and so forth.  And then there is the real cost not the imagined cost ...   

[Derwan]

Latest Facebook post on the maths:  https://www.facebook.com/RAILBackOnTrack/photos/a.653209831359874.1073741825.160527347294794/1290313540982830/?type=3

Please share! 

[petey3801]

Create jobs? How many Brisbane Transport bus drivers would be made redundant when their jobs are replaced by the train?

Quack Quack!!

To be honest, because it is such a buggered up proposal, likely zero bus drivers will be made redundant! 

[#Metro]

To be honest, because it is such a buggered up proposal, likely zero bus drivers will be made redundant!

I think not. The true project cost would be about $3BN, which is roughly the entire BCC budget.

With a massive debt like that, there would almost certainly be (a) a bailout plea to the State Government for financial rescue, and the State would have to oblige as local government is a devolved state power, and/or (b) massive cuts to BCC public services to fill in the hole.

[BrizCommuter]

http://brizcommuter.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/quirky-metro-delusion-continues.html
Quirky Metro - the delusion continues!

[petey3801]

To be honest, because it is such a buggered up proposal, likely zero bus drivers will be made redundant!

I think not. The true project cost would be about $3BN, which is roughly the entire BCC budget.

With a massive debt like that, there would almost certainly be (a) a bailout plea to the State Government for financial rescue, and the State would have to oblige as local government is a devolved state power, and/or (b) massive cuts to BCC public services to fill in the hole.

I was more thinking along the lines of because it is such a small distance that this metro is covering, the buses are still all going to need to run almost as far as they do now. Twas also partly jokingly.

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

8th June 2016

Quirk Metro could make Brisbane Transport employees redundant

Greetings,

Brisbane City Council's approach to dealing with inconvenient realities appears to be 'simply ignore it'.
We again find ourselves reading about Lord Mayor Graham Quirks metro. We don't believe it and we do not support it.

The Deputy Lord Mayor was quoted today that the metro would 'create 7000 jobs'. We don't believe it!

This metro will never be built. We have mathematically proven that it is impossible to have 30 000 passengers/hour with a metro that only has 300 passenger capacity trains. The Lord Mayor and his deputy have also failed to demonstrate that they have permission to rip up the busway, which is State Government owned and controlled and wreck the inner city bus network forcing massive transfers, something they have long claimed they do not support.

Will the Lord Mayor and Deputy Lord Mayor sign a binding cost explosion agreement guaranteeing that Brisbane City Council will pick up all costs if the project exceeds its stated $1.5 BN cost?
We estimate the real cost will be $3 BN plus.

Even if the metro were to go ahead, the shorter bus routes would mean that fewer bus drivers may be needed. We think that means a number of Brisbane Transport employees would have to be made redundant from their jobs. In addition to this, everybody knows that when you tax people to raise revenue for council, that is less money for people to spend on their families, at shops, at restaurants, on holidays etc, and so that very act of taxing them for this project will actually destroy jobs in the private sector.

It is a zero sum game: if Brisbane City Council has more money to spend, then it means less money for the people of Brisbane to spend on themselves and their families. It means reduced jobs within the private sector, and particularly so given that we have shown that Quirk's Metro does not have any more capacity than the existing busway.

These jobs are not real and neither is the metro.

It is truly extraordinary to see the Liberal National Party, supposedly the doyenne of fiscal responsibility and fiscal conservatism, recklessly spruik a project that we believe is grossly undercosted, will have less capacity than the current busway it replaces, and quite possibly result in a number of its own staff being made redundant. Any jobs it creates will be at the expense of jobs in the private sector through reduced citizen spending.

We again call on the Minister for Transport Stirling Hinchliffe to immediately move amendments to The City of Brisbane Act (2010) abolishing all of Brisbane City Council's public transport responsibilities. The LNP has already wreaked havoc on the Moreton Bay Rail Line. Don't let these cowboys wreck Brisbane's public transport system and the economic productivity that depends on it.

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

Reference:

Mathematical Proof:

30 000 passengers / hour divided by 300 passenger trains = 100 trains per hour

Team Quirk has said frequency of the trains will be 2 minutes, that is 30 trains / hour / direction, this is a maximum capacity of 9,000 pphpd

This is much less than the present busway capacity of 15,000 pphpd.

The absolute maximum number of trains per hour a signalling system can cope with is approximately 40 trains per hour/direction.
Above this, safety is compromised.

The network will be in chaos!

Billions of dollars wasted for a toy train!

[ozbob]

http://brizcommuter.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/quirky-metro-delusion-continues.html
Quirky Metro - the delusion continues!

==============

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow now Brisbane, Queensland

BrizCommuter: Quirky Metro - the delusion continues

> http://brizcommuter.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/quirky-metro-delusion-continues.html ... #qldpol

[ozbob]

Latest Facebook post on the maths:  https://www.facebook.com/RAILBackOnTrack/photos/a.653209831359874.1073741825.160527347294794/1290313540982830/?type=3

Please share! 

Thanks Derwan!   

=============

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow now Brisbane, Queensland

. @Team_Quirk why metro is another fantasy ..
> https://www.facebook.com/RAILBackOnTrack/photos/a.653209831359874.1073741825.160527347294794/1290313540982830/?type=3 ... #qldpol

[SteelPan]

great to see BOT, again, getting behind a forward thinking rail based transit system for Brisbane!   

[ozbob]

great to see BOT, again, getting behind a forward thinking rail based transit system for Brisbane!   

Rubbish Steelpan.  We do not support an inadequate solution that delivers less capacity than the existing network.

We have indicated that a real metro is what is needed not a political con trick.

You obviously are not with the intents of our membership.  Might be to time to go elsewhere.

Anymore deliberate inflammatory posts attacking RBoT and you will be removed.  Terms of service are here

> http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=3.0

[ozbob]

This ...

Sent to all outlets:

19th May 2016

Brisbane needs a real metro, not ducks!

Good Morning,

We have shown conclusively that the proposed Quirk Metro simply does not stack up.

For it to be a real long term transit solution Brisbane needs to have a metro with the capacity that well exceeds the present bus-ways and is future proofed.

A proper metro, running from Chermside through to Eight Mile Plains, that operates 6 car trains (minimum) with a pax capacity of 800 and crush pax capacity of 1000 running every 3 minutes would achieve 20,000 passengers per hour per direction.  If the system is fully automated (driverless) as it should be, the frequency could be 2 minutes which would give 30,000 passengers per hour per direction.  This is many times the capacity of the proposed Quirk Metro. A branch line could serve UQ at St Lucia.

This is the sort of capacity that is needed not the absurd toy metro floated during the BCC campaign. A functional metro system would need a new tunnel between Buranda and RBWH. Victoria Bridge is not suitable for a metro.

This is a major investment.  It would require committment from BCC, State and Federal Governments.

Cross River Rail is languishing.  We fear that when the present Labor Government goes, so will Cross River Rail.  To proceed with a ' half baked Quack metro ' will put Brisbane in the failed city class, a point it is teetering on now.

Careful thought and planning is needed.

Best wishes
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

Attached: [ http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=11952.msg174142#msg174142 ]

[#Metro]

great to see BOT, again, getting behind a forward thinking rail based transit system for Brisbane! 

A metro is possible but the Quirk one is not it.

To use an analogy, spot the difference between saying "a car crashed" and "my car crashed".

One is not specific, the other is very specific.

Similarly, one has to draw a distinction between a well thought out metro and Quirk's metro.

The plan in its current form is unworkable. Major changes are needed to make it work (double the cost estimate, triple the train capacity, dump the via Victoria Bridge alignment etc).

Originally I was happy to support Quirk's metro until others (Brizcommuter) and an information request pointed out the facts.

That is the value of discussion and debate - the facts reveal themselves soon enough.

Based on that new information, obviously, my position and others had to change. So be it.

Frankly, I do not want to see $1.5BN spent on poop. So much good could be done with money like that. But not on this proposal as it stands.

[Gazza]

great to see BOT, again, getting behind a forward thinking rail based transit system for Brisbane!   

Hey steel pan, remember my post asking whether you supported a metro in the town of Gympie?

Why can't you understand that we support good rail proposals, not any old rail proposal.

[Gazza]

great to see BOT, again, getting behind a forward thinking rail based transit system for Brisbane!   

CRR
Sunshine Coast Duplication
CAMCOS
Redbank Plains Rail
GC line southern extension
G:Link to Cooloongatta
Cleveland line Duplication
Doomben extension to Hamilton.

That's NINE rail projects that RBoT support, but you have the nerve to say we're anti rail?

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Four key reasons metro plan is flawed

AS a city of over one million within a rapidly expanding region of three million plus, Brisbane has grown to a size where a metro is both justifiable and desirable.

Connectivity and enhanced intra-urban mobility are key to unlocking the city's potential in a 21st century environment in which the nine-to-five commute seems anachronistic and where millennials are increasingly choosing mass transit over driving.

It is thus timely and logical that the city should implement a first-class metro system.

Last week's announcement that work is under way on the business case for a subway system was therefore exciting. It promises service every two minutes, three new stations and a capacity of up to 30,000 passengers per hour. But it also raises a number of concerns.

First, the proposed route does not adequately connect existing employment centres and provides no new connectivity. The CBD and surrounding suburbs of South Brisbane, Fortitude Valley and Woolloongabba are primary sources of employment in southeast Queensland and are likely to be key areas of growth. Our own research shows that the CBD is the top transport interchange, along with South Brisbane/South Bank and the major universities and hospitals. Furthermore, forecasts to 2031 indicate that business services, healthcare, retail and education are the four highest-growth sectors, all of which are likely to contribute to inner city jobs growth. Any proposal should focus on linking these with existing suburban corridors such as major busway and rail stations. This adds to existing connectivity rather than simply enhancing our slowish inner city bus routes.

While the proposed route connects some of these together, it does not connect others, notably the University of Queensland (where many thousands of trips start and finish each day), nor does it connect the future intensive high-rise precincts around Fortitude Valley and West End to the CBD. The present east-west City Glider service will be inadequate to cope with future population rises in those areas, and the Valley-Central train link does not give good access to the main CBD office area.

Second, the project as outlined replicates existing high-frequency bus services. We argue a metro should serve as a complement to the existing busways, not as a partial replacement. As Brisbane expands, capacity will no doubt increase on busways and new corridors are needed not only to shift peak-hour demand but also enhance linkages to areas that are poorly connected at present. A crossing at Kurilpa Point (via the Victoria Bridge) reflects Brisbane's historical development but a link between Woolloongabba and the southern CBD (as Cross River Rail proposes) would dramatically slash travel times from the southern corridor.

Third, the project does not appear scalable. While not without advantages, the rubber tyred rolling stock ensures the system can never be integrated with the existing rail network. Moreover, if an east-west link were built now, a north-south link could be built later on, or vice versa. The proposed route of Herston-Kelvin Grove-Roma Street-Queen St-South Brisbane-South Bank-Mater-Woolloongabba appears a compromise between a north-south and east-west corridor offering little opportunity for future expansion.

Finally, and perhaps most critically, it ignores the huge momentum around the Cross-River Rail project, which will connect the southern corridor via Boggo Road and Woolloongabba to the city via Albert St. Why not combine these? Is it a matter of antagonism between city council and state government, or simply a mismatch in needs?

Our solution is to build an integrated system along two axes. First, north-south, linking Herston, Kelvin Grove, Roma St, Albert St, Woolloongabba, PA Hospital and UQ to the existing rail corridors at Bowen Hills (and on to the airport) and Park Road (Dutton Park). And second, east-west, linking Indooroopilly, Toowong, West End/South Brisbane, South Bank, the City, Fortitude Valley, Newstead, Bulimba, and Hamilton. With high-density approvals at an all time high, this would also provide a solution to some of the transport issues associated with densification.

Admittedly, this would be a much more expensive solution than the proposed one, and would require significant Federal buy-in. It would, however, obviate the need for a number of other expensive proposals linking said suburbs – new cross-river links would be created that replace the need for new bridges (Toowong-West End; St Lucia-West End; Newstead-Bulimba-Hamilton) and it would forestall discussion of a tramway, which would be significantly slower and also not solve any of our "surface" transport issues. This would also address an equity issue, as the current solution appears to provide high-speed service within the inner 5km but not to the inner 5km.

Metro connections to the Springfield and Ipswich lines to the west, the Shorncliffe and Caboolture lines to the north and Gold Coast and Cleveland lines to the south and east would ensure that a metro would be fully integrated with existing rail corridors.

Dr Thomas Sigler and Dr Glen Searle, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland

[ozbob]

I knew it was only a matter of time before those with special interest in transport and urban affairs started to speak out about the outrage and intellectual fraud the Quack metro really is. 

The bottom line is the capacity as touted is a fraud.   It will only deliver 9000 pphpd vs existing 12000-15000 pphpd on the busways.
BCC's own information shows this clearly. 

We cannot and will not stand by to see Brisbane's bus network wrecked by a political pie-in-the-sky absurdity with massive costs and damage.

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

15th June 2016

Quirk Metro is a very flawed plan ...

Good Morning,

We knew it was a only a matter of time before concerned professionals in transport and urban affairs found the courage to speak out and point out how absurd and intellectually bankrupt the proposed Quirk Metro actually is.  We have shown that it simply does not stack just on passenger capacity alone. It would wreck Brisbane's public transport for a half-baked solution that delivers less capacity than the existing busways and waste billions of dollars.  Bus network reform will deliver huge benefits for near neutral cost.  No wonder questions are being asking about this metro absurdity hey?

Couriermail --> Four key reasons metro plan is flawed
[ http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/news-story/270fcb35a4e60b5379e47ff73893763d ]

We stand vindicated in our relentless committment to save Brisbane's public transport network!

Best wishes,

Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

[ Attached:  http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=11952.msg175212#msg175212 ]

[ozbob]

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow 2 minutes ago Brisbane, Queensland

Proof of the @Team_Quirk ' metro ' con

> http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=11952.msg175212#msg175212 ... #qldpol

@CrPeterCumming Facts do not lie ... O_o

[BrizCommuter]

Good to see the tide turning against Quirk's absurd idea.
Keep the pressure cooker turned on!

[#Metro]

Good to see the tide turning against Quirk's absurd idea.
Keep the pressure cooker turned on!

Quack Quack! Anyone for roast duck?

Honestly. I know there are some challenging tasks out there that I don't envy. But to take on mathematics itself?

This is a clear case of 'The Emperor's new clothes'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes

Of course, media et. al play along.

[ozbob]

Good to see the tide turning against Quirk's absurd idea.
Keep the pressure cooker turned on!

[ozbob]

Twitter

Robert Dow ‏@Robert_Dow 2h

. @Team_Quirk @CrPeterCumming TQ refused to cooperate with network reform in 2013

' Ducks ' coming home to roost hey? #qldpol

#quackmetro

[#Metro]

Read very carefully. These two academics have independently come to the same conclusion that I have:

A combined CRR/Metro tunnel makes good sense. Even if the tunnels are parallel but separate and part of the same project/built at the same time, there will still be savings and easy interchange benefits. Totally avoids problems at Mater Hill and Victoria Bridge.

Finally, and perhaps most critically, it ignores the huge momentum around the Cross-River
Rail project, which will connect the southern corridor via Boggo Road and Woolloongabba to
the city via Albert St. Why not combine these? Is it a matter of antagonism between city
council and state government, or simply a mismatch in needs?

Cheapest and easiest go along the busway as per Toronto and Ottawa Transitway models. Patronage is already
there to justify trains every 5 minutes in peak hour.

Second, the project as outlined replicates existing high-frequency bus services. We argue
a metro should serve as a complement to the existing busways, not as a partial
replacement.

Poor argument. Nobody says 'Oh, light rail/ferry/bus can't run on QR train tracks, will never integrate'.
Didn't agree with their conclusion here.

Third, the project does not appear scalable. While not without advantages, the rubber
tyred rolling stock ensures the system can never be integrated with the existing rail
network.

[ozbob]

Will Graham Quirk's Brisbane Metro become a reality? @DamienHansen7 https://t.co/lAgvJIiASa #bnetraffic #7News https://t.co/eYOiZ0zmwq

— 7 News Queensland (@7NewsQueensland) May 5, 2016

============================


7 News Brisbane

Not sure if ' driverless ' is correct.  We had advice from BCC that as proposed the trains had drivers.

(home vid on TV)

It is good that Matt Burke has pointed the real problems with network as a consequence of the quack metro.

[ozbob]

A proper metro is reasonable for future Brisbane as we have pointed out numerous times.

The Quack metro is nonsense.  State Governments will never give up the busway infrastructure for such a half-wit proposal.

[verbatim9]

I am happy to see a metro line constructed in Bne, but the alignment needs a bit of work and requires more tunneling. The rubber tyre metro in Montreal is good. Have ridden it years ago.

[ozbob]

Flawed Metro plan exposed. https://t.co/S9ebJ6XhUQ

— Peter Cumming (@CrPeterCumming) June 15, 2016

[ozbob]

LM allocates $16M for #BrisbaneMetro business case this FY #infrastructure #bccbudget2016 pic.twitter.com/WucQTPNN5D

— Team Quirk (@Team_Quirk) June 15, 2016

[ozbob]

 

[ozbob]

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbane-city-council-budget-2016-live-coverage-20160614-gpj7h5.html

Brisbane Metro

Lord Mayor Graham Quirk's Brisbane Metro, which he identified as a major factor in the city's 4.7 per cent average rates rise, will cost more than $221 million over the next four years.

The bulk of the $221.63 million – $102.23 million – was forecast to be spent in 2019-20.

There will be $15.96 million spent on the Metro's business case in 2016-17.

Overall, the project was expected to cost $1.54 billion and Cr Quirk has said the council was prepared to do the "heavy lifting" in funding the Metro.

[Derwan]

Read very carefully. These two academics have independently come to the same conclusion that I have:

A combined CRR/Metro tunnel makes good sense. Even if the tunnels are parallel but separate and part of the same project/built at the same time, there will still be savings and easy interchange benefits. Totally avoids problems at Mater Hill and Victoria Bridge.

I can see some merit in combining the tunnels just for the bit under the river - and then going different ways on the surface. (I think your map was like this, wasn't it?)  I think it's less than ideal (they should ideally follow completely separate alignments and only have interchanges with other modes), but as a cost compromise, it's not as bad as... say...  the Coalition NBN.