LNP: Brisbane Metro Plan

[SurfRail]

CRR built right would have a crush capacity of between 1,200 and 1,500 per train with 9 car sets.  With 24tph, that is 36,000 per hour.

Neither the busway nor the southern rail lines are anywhere near this volume of patronage even over the entire peak.

I think the sensible solution is to terminate all buses at the Gabba approaching the inbound platform except for (probably) the 61, 100 and 200, and maintain the 29 to UQ.  Everything else - hop on a train to the city, or transfer onto those BUZ and Glider routes for South Bank.  That will free up a fair volume of capacity on the inner busway for quite a while.

It also means that you should be able to eliminate virtually all peak-hour only routes coming into the Gabba precinct because nearly all the variations happen inbound of the Gabba rather than outbound and are based on the route taken to the CBD and where in the CBD they end up.  No need for a separate 210 and 211 for instance if you can just get everybody to the Gabba either by train or on a 61/100/200 and transfer there.  Simplifies the network, removes unnecessary complexity.

There is probably a case for terminating a number of routes at the Gabba from the busway as well, and likewise consolidating the peak variations into the normal full-time route.  Not the furthest out routes, but the ones from closer in like the 120, 180 etc.

[SurfRail]

Serious consideration should be given to a combined Rail over Rail tunnel, similar to San Francisco Market St Subway. This would allow CRR and metro to be co-constructed with massive cost savings, and early opening.

Yes, but overspeccing it initially is potentially a massive waste of capital when there is no timetable for a metro along the busway, and is a good way of sinking the whole thing due to initial outlay being too high.  Not every project can be everything to all people.

I also understand that 2 smaller twin-bore tunnels will be cheaper to build than a single big tube given the relative difference in volume plus the greater spoil removal and other technical issues. 

BaT was to cost $5bn, and yet that was for a considerably reduced scope version with several km less tunnelling and virtually no approach works except for some extra platforms on the dual-gauge line.  CRR was brought down to something like $6.4bn including all the NWTC connection works and 20km of surface approach works.  I don't consider that BaT was in any way value for money, and the BCR of 1.16 (IIRC) reflected that.

[kram0]

CRR is intended to unblock the rail network, Metro is intended to unblock the busway. They are separate lines.

CRR also effectively acts as an inner-city metro, as well increasing suburban rail.

The Quirky Metro doesn't actually solve any problems that could be solved by bus reform. There is no business case. Funding arguments and politics surrounding the Quirky Metro may well further delay CRR (which seems to be a trend of LNP policy).

A metro would not just stop at Wooloongabba, but extend ultimately to Eight Mile Plains or Chermside.

There has been zero indication that the Quirky Metro would do this. I would not assume that there is intention to convert more of the busway.
Also, why would Quirk want to spend loads of money on a bus rail interchange at Wooloongabba, and then divert the metro down the SE Busway? Though the plans are somewhat lacking on how the interchanges will work.

Don't get too wrapped up in Quirk's time wasting foaming.

It is not unusual to have two-tier services like this - for example S and U Bahns in Germany. Australian cities generally do not have two tier services but this is slowly changing (i.e. Melbourne with V/Line and Metro and Sydney with Sydney Metro and the Sydney Trains network).

Placing metro down the busways will lead to the most economical and simplest network in the long term.

Brisbane needs solutions that suit Brisbane, not other cities. Many cities wish they has a 1 tier system, for example Tokyo has designed or adapted metro lines to allow through running of suburban rail services. London will never see any more tube lines, but have suburban rail services running across the city in tunnels (Crossrail 1 & 2). 

CRR is urgently required. Bus reform is urgently required.
Metro-ising busways has poor cost/benefit and should be well down the list of priorities - in fact far below rail to Caloundra, Coolangatta, Flagstone, Trouts Rd Line, and eventual relief of Ipswich Line.

I think all levels of government are doing there bit to delay CRR. If Labor are in such a hurry why not priorities getting the business case to Canberra? Clearly not in that much of a hurry to deliver.

[#Metro]

CRR also effectively acts as an inner-city metro, as well increasing suburban rail.

But it does not because the busway currently does this and busway stations further out are not served.

Neither the busway nor the southern rail lines are anywhere near this volume of patronage even over the entire peak.

It is not relevant because the railway and busway lines are in different locations of the city. The amount of people that could be using the CRR method is limited because the busway is the limiting factor here. Half the buses currently go over the Captain Cook Bridge, and half via Cultural Centre. If ca 50% of the buses were diverted to CRR at Wooloongabba (as they are now to Captain Cook Bridge), ignoring the permanent dumping of pax just short of the CBD issue, I suspect you would still have Cultural Centre jammed at peak hours, unless you also sent buses via Captain Cook Bridge.

In addition to this, you would have a bottleneck scenario. Buses still need to travel between Buranda and Wooloongabba, and I suspect that is limited to 12 000 pphd also. Which means very little capacity for growth getting into Wooloongabba etc. You would potentially have Victoria Bridge situation between Buranda and Wooloongabba stations.

I think the sensible solution is to terminate all buses at the Gabba approaching the inbound platform except for (probably) the 61, 100 and 200, and maintain the 29 to UQ.  Everything else - hop on a train to the city, or transfer onto those BUZ and Glider routes for South Bank.  That will free up a fair volume of capacity on the inner busway for quite a while.

I always intended bus reforms to be taken with infrastructure and I based that on the successful TTC Toronto model where buses run to subway train stations. It is extraordinarily efficient and cost effective. TTC regularly recovers 60-70% of operational revenue from fares.

I dropped the metro component because I never ever thought that anyone would ever run with metro conversion of the busway. Bus reform came out of that.

But now that a metro is on the table, it should be grabbed.

[#Metro]

There has been zero indication that the Quirky Metro would do this. I would not assume that there is intention to convert more of the busway.

Also, why would Quirk want to spend loads of money on a bus rail interchange at Wooloongabba, and then divert the metro down the SE Busway? Though the plans are somewhat lacking on how the interchanges will work.

At this early stage, anything is possible. It is easiest to change plans when they are only on paper in pencil, and not when they are built. It is possible to reject the Quirk conception of a metro, but support an altered proposal.

Brisbane needs solutions that suit Brisbane, not other cities. Many cities wish they has a 1 tier system, for example Tokyo has designed or adapted metro lines to allow through running of suburban rail services. London will never see any more tube lines, but have suburban rail services running across the city in tunnels (Crossrail 1 & 2). 

I agree, and that is why we have a busway system separate from the QR rail network. As I have already demonstrated, if the busway were converted, it would already be running trains every 5 minutes during peak hour. Given that transport systems are designed to handle peak load capacity, there are more than enough passengers to justify it already.

[#Metro]

Yes, but overspeccing it initially is potentially a massive waste of capital when there is no timetable for a metro along the busway, and is a good way of sinking the whole thing due to initial outlay being too high.  Not every project can be everything to all people.

Potentially but not demonstrably. The study should be done, because it hasn't been done, and in addition to this given that BCC has is already prepared to dump $1BN into this, in addition to cost savings there would also be money from BCC.

It it far to early to reject a rail over rail tunnel without proper engineering and business case evaluation.

[#Metro]

Rather than fighting against this metro being built, should we focus on convincing Quirk to consider alternative alignments that are better (maybe a proper subway metro), provide new connections (that the busway doesn't already provide), and doesn't interfere with the busway. I'm sure there are plenty of ideas out there on alignments (including my own blue-sky metro idea, albeit thought up in a day, much like Quirk's proposal). Maybe our effort is better spent on trying to get a positive outcome from this.

Absolutely agree here. An open mind should be kept and thorough and proper assessment done of ALL options, including rail over rail tunnel alignment. I think this will be easier than it looks because I think the Victoria Bridge and capacity constraint by going that way will almost certainly sink it.

[verbatim9]

As Channel 9 reported looks like QSBS will stay intact for busses and a new tunnel will be built to King George Sq Station under Adelaide St

[ozbob]

Here is the 7 News Item, missus filmed it on her tablet ... 

>> https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=EF6487593EE5ACE0!1699&authkey=!AOfjYIYRZwWiMds&ithint=video%2cmp4

[ozbob]

10 News >> http://tenplay.com.au/news/brisbane/2016/3/21/quirk-plans-inner-city-metro

[ozbob]

So until some details start emerging re business case etc.  not much really can be done now. 

I am fairly confident that as proposed right now, it will not stack up ( we have shown that clearly).  It might be modified for a better outcome but costs will escalate. 

How and if there is a relationship with CRR is still to be determined.

The land at Woolloongabba is earmarked for Cross River Rail, that is a reality.  Not sure if the depot can be co-located there.

We are just going to have to sit tight and see how it all progresses ...

It was used as a vote-bait hook clearly by Quirk.  The real work now begins.   

[#Metro]

The land at Woolloongabba is earmarked for Cross River Rail, that is a reality.  Not sure if the depot can be co-located there.

Land at W'Gabba is not good for a depot. That is a very poor use of valuable land and high opportunity cost (precludes a nice TOD development). Depots should be located in areas where they are out of the way.

[ozbob]

^ yo.  I think there is virtually no chance the State would give up that land for a depot when value-capture for CRR Woolloongabba would be the go (TOD etc).

[#Metro]

It really needs to be done by a joint planning board between State Government and BCC. Silo planning has huge problems.

This is not hard to do. Repurpose the Fares Review Panel by adding a few members from DTMR and one or two from BCC and voila!

[ozbob]

Meanwhile the bus mess continues to get worse ...

Things must start to give with bus network changes.  The battle continues ... 

[verbatim9]

10 News >> http://tenplay.com.au/news/brisbane/2016/3/21/quirk-plans-inner-city-metro

Wow! Logan has a new bus plan Brisbane has a new metro plan Gold Coast has LRT plans wonder why Sunshine coast was left out?

[verbatim9]

Meanwhile the bus mess continues to get worse ...

Things must start to give with bus network changes.  The battle continues ... 

They will have to fix the busses well before the first metro line is completed. Cant have another 6 years of bus congestion from Mater Hill to Roma Street. Looks like 10-15 min frequency trains all day all lines until 10pm with feeder busses?

[Derwan]

Dear Graham,

Please contribute to Cross River Rail and reform the bus network as proposed by TransLink in 2013.  THEN we'll talk about your metro.

Your sincerely,
Anastacia.

[verbatim9]

Dear Graham,

Please contribute to Cross River Rail and reform the bus network as proposed by TransLink in 2013.  THEN we'll talk about your metro.

Your sincerely,
Anastacia.

[#Metro]

There is no reason for BCC to contribute to CRR because they have no say or stake in it.
Add the metro to CRR:

- You solve the busway issue
- Graham gets to keep his promise (though slightly modified)
- BCC contributes $1 BN or so to CRR, which makes Annastacia happy and her treasurer, easier for feds to jump on board too
- You make a cost saving compared to two separate rail tunnel projects
- You get to both open a metro and CRR at the same time
- Bus network reform is physically forced to be reformed AND you have a solid reason why people cannot continue with the current system. (Buses to CBD can't drive on train tracks)

In any case, there is no reason to block a formal engineering and economic investigation into a combined CRR/Metro option.

[Derwan]

In any case, there is no reason to block a formal engineering and economic investigation into a combined CRR/Metro option.

Sorry but every time you say this I find myself shaking my head.  It'd be BaT version 2.0 - but MaT instead of BaT.

[verbatim9]

Just wandering if stage 2 will go North to Hamilton Northshore and South to West end  UQ Indooroopilly or East to Bulimba?

[#Metro]

Sorry but every time you say this I find myself shaking my head.  It'd be BaT version 2.0 - but MaT instead of BaT.

I absolutely welcome disagreement. I am not afraid to be wrong. It is possible that I am wrong, but it has not been shown for certain yet.

If the idea is so bad as you think it is, it will all come out in the report. BaT did not have the operational savings that would come with a metro because staff would still be driving buses to the CBD, unlike a metro which can be entirely automatic. Given that say 60-80% of bus operational costs are staff labour costs, that is a huge saving, and one that will get larger with time.

[Derwan]

https://www.facebook.com/RAILBackOnTrack/photos/a.653209831359874.1073741825.160527347294794/1233475756666609/?type=3&theater

[BrizCommuter]

^^^^ Love it. (Though in reality they are probably both face-palming).

[#Metro]

You didn't happen to work for the Courier-Mail Derwan? 

[#Metro]

Look's like you already have company Derwan:

Comment on RBOT facebook photo

Eric David: The fact that a rail advisory blog is now somehow against a major metro project for Brisbane bewilders me. Get over it and support this mass rapid transit project.

Quirk Metro doesn't stack up, but a modified plan could well work.
Rather than focus on problems, focus on solutions to those issues. Most problems have solutions.

[Jonno]

The fact that a rail group is against it shows you just how it bad it is!!!

[Gazza]

 

There is no way we can afford a double deck metro tunnel.

Remember, the only way the BaT managed it was by severely lobotomizing the project.....7 car platforms, no use by northern trains, shorter tunnel, no park road,  etc.

The double deck bore and bigger station boxes doesn't come cheap.

So then I guess the answer is to build the proper CRR but double deck, I hear you cry?

But if you had say the budget of $8 bil to do it that way rather than the $5 bil for CRR alone, then you'd have the money to perhaps consider options like building a tunnel all the way to Alderley!

There is no reason you couldn't fix cultural center congestion with a combination of bus reform and CRR.

Finish routes at gabba, redesign the 130 and 140 so passengers use altandi trains to the cbd, separate west end routes at cultural center.....the options are endless.

Do this, and you defer the need for a metro for 20 years

By and large, the busway stations themselves don't generate much patronage, and in any case most of the inner city ones bar mater hill are served by rail.

[#Metro]

There is no way we can afford a double deck metro tunnel.

Remember, the only way the BaT managed it was by severely lobotomizing the project.....7 car platforms, no use by northern trains, shorter tunnel, no park road,  etc.

The double deck bore and bigger station boxes doesn't come cheap.

So then I guess the answer is to build the proper CRR but double deck, I hear you cry?

But if you had say the budget of $8 bil to do it that way rather than the $5 bil for CRR alone, then you'd have the money to perhaps consider options like building a tunnel all the way to Alderley!

There is no reason you couldn't fix cultural center congestion with a combination of bus reform and CRR.

Finish routes at gabba, redesign the 130 and 140 so passengers use altandi trains to the cbd, separate west end routes at cultural center.....the options are endless.

Do this, and you defer the need for a metro for 20 years

By and large, the busway stations themselves don't generate much patronage, and in any case most of the inner city ones bar mater hill are served by rail.

They should do the report just as they would do for any other project and assess it on merits.
The answer will come out with proper analysis. It will settle the matter. Particularly the NPV measurement.

Until that due process is done, I'm keeping this combined option open.

[#Metro]

It is worth remembering that a metro is State Government policy also. Open the Connecting SEQ 2031 document and you will see a metro mentioned in it. Annastacia Palaszczuk was Transport Minister than and her face and signature are on the inside cover of it.

So clearly, the Queensland Government does want to see a metro in by 2031. They and Brisbane City Council are on the same page, they just don't want to admit it.

I am unconvinced that it is cheaper to build a station box for CRR and then come back x years later and build another station box in the CBD for metro, rather than just build one big one at the same time.

While it is true that busway stations themselves do not generate high patronage (neither do train stations), it is also irrelevant information. The key justification for a metro system isn't high density, but high patronage. As long as you have high patronage, that is a sufficient reason to justify it. How that high patronage is ultimately generated is not important.

As stated earlier, if the metro was running today it would be running trains every 5 minutes during peak hour.

12 000 pax / 1000 pax train =12 train loads.
60 minutes / 12 train loads = 5 minute frequency.

Most patronage comes from the bus services feeding into the busway network, and under a metro this will continue. Indeed, this is a similar case for Toronto, where a large proportion of pax comes from the buses feeding into the TTC subway system.

The function of the busway is line haul (i.e. get passengers to the CBD). Cutting it off at Wooloongabba turns the entire busway into a feeder service and you still have a potential bottleneck issue where capacity is restricted between Buranda and Wooloongabba.

[#Metro]

Annastacia Palaszczuk might not want to admit it, but it is her policy position. The argument is simply about specifically what route it should take and whether it should be done at the same time as or separately to CRR.

0:42 Cross River Rail
then 0:49 New Brisbane Subway 

[SurfRail]

There is so much dribble in this thread I can't see the surface.

BUS REFORM folks.

There's a reason why the Gold Coast has shiny new toys out earning their keep while Brisbane is doddering along.  Keep it achievable and sensible.

[#Metro]

I think there is a way to make it all work, including the bus reform. Remember, any metro is at least 6 years away... as is CRR.

[ozbob]

Sent to all outlets:

22nd March 2016

Quirk ' Metro ' is profound waste

Good Morning,

We now have a public transport crisis in Brisbane.  As was revealed on Television News services last evening in Brisbane, the Quirk ' Metro ' is at least 6 years away should it actually reach a construction stage. Buses continue to congest and run late in Brisbane, and it will only get worse.

Frankly, as proposed during the recent Council Elections the  ' Metro ' project does not stack up.  Firstly, why would anyone want to spend billions of dollars on a project that gives no overall gain in passenger capacity and completely disrupts the inner busway network in Brisbane?  There are serious questions about the proposed route alignment - Victoria Bridge is not structurally suitable for a mass transit system in our opinion.  The Team Quirk claims it is suitable for a ' metro ' but not light rail.  If it is not suitable for light rail there is little doubt that it will not be suitable for rubber tyre metro trains.  These vehicles require rails and power too, and are of similar size to a Queensland Rail Suburban Train only shorter.

There are real questions about the cost of the project that has been floated.  As was revealed during the campaign an internal memo from TMR also has questioned the costing.  There will be a need for an alternate to Victoria Bridge, the busway stations will require major works.  It is yet to be determined what other additional costs would be incurred.  Our estimate is a minimum of 3 billion dollars.

Team Quirk have presumptively assumed that the State Government will simply give over the busways for this project.  The suggested site for the depot for the Quirk ' Metro ' is actually planned to be utilised for Woolloongabba Railway station for Cross River Rail.  The land at Woolloongabba is not good for a depot. That would be a very poor use of valuable land and high opportunity cost and a loss of value capture opportunities eg. Transit Oriented Development at the station site. Depots should be located in areas where they are out of the way.

As was attempted in 2013, reforming the Brisbane bus network will effectively deliver much the same benefit as the Quirk ' Metro '.  Lord Mayor Quirk has said in the past that people do not want to transfer. Well, with the Quirk ' Metro ' nearly everyone will be transferring.

With bus network reform more buses will be deployed to the suburbs, the number of near empty buses clogging up the busways, Victoria Bridge and CBD will be significantly reduced.  It is outrageous to ponder the fact that our elected representatives are happy to spend billions of dollars on a pipe-dream, when simple network reform will deliver the same benefits for a near neutral cost.  Not only outrageous but also immoral and possibly fraudulent in our opinion. It takes some real political courage to do the right thing, something sadly lacking in Queensland and Brisbane it seems.

The Queensland Government must act and force Brisbane City Council to direct Brisbane Transport to be willing and cooperative partners in a bus network reform process for Brisbane.  If Council does not want to cooperate then the bus contracts must be removed from BCC. They are presently not able to meet the minimum performance standards and it will only get worse unless we have reform.

Brisbane cannot afford to sit in bus-jam any longer, waiting for pie-in-the-sky rolled gold dreams to come on by.

Time to act, and act decisively.

Best wishes
Robert

Robert Dow
Administration
admin@backontrack.org
RAIL Back On Track http://backontrack.org

References:

1. http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=11952.msg171225#msg171225

2. Note:

We have assessed Lord Mayor Graham Quirk's metro. As proposed, the capacity will fall far short of the 30 000 passengers/hour touted in election material. Our calculation shows that even if trains were run every 90 seconds, Quirk Metro would not add any new capacity to the South East Busway:

300 passengers / train x 40 trains/hour = 12 000 passengers/hour (This is the same as peak capacity on the SE busway)

Lord Mayor Graham Quirk is welcome to show us how he arrived at the figure of 30 000 passengers / hour. We do not believe it.
Even if train capacities were doubled, it would still fall short.

[James]

There is so much dribble in this thread I can't see the surface.

BUS REFORM folks.

There's a reason why the Gold Coast has shiny new toys out earning their keep while Brisbane is doddering along.  Keep it achievable and sensible.

Bus reform is about as palatable to the electorate right now as poo burgers. Look at what happened in 2013 - the heat the government got over the proposal was insane.

Yes, bus reform is our main game, but if an idea is being floated, we're better off saying "Improve it by doing XYZ" rather than "This thing sucks!" Quirk isn't going to scrap a major election promise, we're better off saying how it could be improved (while also pointing out CRR is a better solution).

[ozbob]

Reform, CRR is the solution!

That's next ...  CRR!  Expect an announcement shortly confirming route.  It will be truncated somewhat from CRR1 I expect.

Ignoring bus reform in the public space because of ' perceived difficulty ' is not my game. Other cities manage to do it fine.  It just needs the right approach from here.

[#Metro]

James does have a point.

The current BCC administration is incredibly resistant to bus reform.
They:
- blew up the 2013 TransLink bus review
- blocked contracting out of bus services
- openly violate mandated bus on time standards (NO penalty!)
- ignored obvious waste, duplication and inefficiency in the bus system
- PILED UP MORE WASTE with the ridiculous P332 bus hi-waste rocket *during an election campaign*
- AND openly rejected a CentenaryGlider to the Centenary suburbs in an election even though two other parties had adopted it.

This 'meeting' with Transport Minister and Graham Quirk, how ironic! Pity the favour wasn't forthcoming when BCC blocked DTMR from meeting over the bus review SIX TIMES in 2013!!

The Transport Minister is going to lose control of his portfolio all over again!!

[ozbob]

Errr ....   

I intend to push for bus reform.  It will be more incremental but it has to happen.  It is OUTRAGEOUS that BCC is allowed to get away with it.  In no other jurisdiction would this be tolerated.  Even Hobart has managed to reform their bus network into a much better system.

Brisbane is fast becoming the back water of Oz.

To stand by and do nothing because it is all too hard is not me.

Onwards!

[ozbob]

Graham Quirk's new challenge? Convincing Labor to come to the $1.5 billion Metro system party #bnevotes #7News https://t.co/jJdaoJHAi1

— 7 News Queensland (@7NewsQueensland) March 21, 2016