Understanding Costs and Priorities

[ryan83320]

Like everyone else, I would welcome more duplication on the Sunshine Coast Line and would like a definite date about duplication to Landsborough.

However, there are other urgent rail priorities like the Cross-River Link and rail extensions towards Coolangatta Airport.

In the meantime, I wondered if a rail shuttle service could be offered from Nambour to Gympie North using the new platform facilities.

This would be just a three car electric unit that does not add to the bottleneck of more trains through the CBD in Brisbane.

It would be more cost effective if the Nambour-Gympie Shuttle was actually a two car non-electrified rail service that is A/C, with flexible seating to accommodate bicycles and
food vending machines using the latest Bombardier designs or equivalents.

There is no reason why this low-cost shuttle could not extend services to Maryborough CBD and Bundaberg which would be included on a Translink Gocard.

[Gazza]

Curious as to why the Cooloongatta airport extension takes priority over Sunshine Coast upgrades?

[James]

Like everyone else, I would welcome more duplication on the Sunshine Coast Line and would like a definite date about duplication to Landsborough. However, there are other urgent rail priorities like the Cross-River Link and rail extensions towards Coolangatta Airport.

Rail towards Coolangatta is hardly urgent by any means. It was only 15 years ago Brisbane Airport got its own rail service, I don't think it is a disaster if Coolie has to wait another 5 years. CRR I agree with. The reason SCL is put forward as a project is because it is a good project for the state to do in the mean time, with its low cost (~$500mil), high BCR (2.2 or so) and huge benefits (decent service opened up to the entire Sunshine Coast via bus connections).

In the meantime, I wondered if a rail shuttle service could be offered from Nambour to Gympie North using the new platform facilities. This would be just a three car electric unit that does not add to the bottleneck of more trains through the CBD in Brisbane.

A rail shuttle between Nambour and Gympie has been something RBoT has supported, but has got little traction so far. I would say there is merit. North of Nambour, very little of the traffic is bound for Brisbane anyway and is primarily oldies getting between hinterland towns and to/from Nambour for medical appointments etc. Slots heading into the CBD aren't the issue for these services anyway - I think it is mainly demand.

It would be more cost effective if the Nambour-Gympie Shuttle was actually a two car non-electrified rail service that is A/C, with flexible seating to accommodate bicycles and
food vending machines using the latest Bombardier designs or equivalents.
There is no reason why this low-cost shuttle could not extend services to Maryborough CBD and Bundaberg which would be included on a Translink Gocard.

QR spent billions stringing up wires in the 80s, we might as well use the current electric 3-car trains. There's plenty of room to fit on bicycles if people want to, and really there's no need to put vending machines on when the stations don't even have them, nor are you allowed to eat on trains.

Finally, I think it is worth bearing in mind that the Sunshine Coast Line north of Nambour is purely a welfare service. A welfare service is there to allow people to access essential services (basic medical, shops, basic leisure, government facilities etc.). Maryborough and Bundy do not need a link to Gympie or Nambour for the purpose of transit welfare, and such a service would compete with the Tilt Train.

[Arnz]

Like everyone else, I would welcome more duplication on the Sunshine Coast Line and would like a definite date about duplication to Landsborough.

However, there are other urgent rail priorities like the Cross-River Link and rail extensions towards Coolangatta Airport.

I'd have to echo Gazza on this one and also join in on the question why would you prioritise a rail extension to Coolangatta (with less BCR) ahead of the NCL/SCL duplication which also serves freight traffic to the entire state of Queensland on a mostly a single track (with crossing loops) beyond Beerburrum?

While Coolangatta may in the scope for rail service, I think it would be very low on priority (well behind the CRR, NCL duplication, other track amplifications on the QR passenger network and even the GCLR extensions south of Broadbeach)

There is no reason why this low-cost shuttle could not extend services to Maryborough CBD and Bundaberg which would be included on a Translink Gocard.

Beyond Gympie North would be competing with itself (cannabilising the Tilt Train), and also pointed out by many others previously the areas north of Nambour to Gympie North are primarily a community/welfare service.  Notably with the amount of elderly & pensioners using the service to get to the hospitals and/or medical appointments in Nambour.

[#Metro]

If a project cost $1 but returns $2 of benefit, the BCR is 2.0.
If a project cost $1 million but returns $2 million of benefit, the BCR is also 2.0. However, assuming we have the funds, if we choose the second project, it has more benefits in net absolute terms. So we need to know something about what the net benefits are (NPV).

SC BCR is good, but possibly LRT / Rail extensions to OOL might be competitive against it as the GC lines are used more heavily and would benefit more people.

Not making a stance either way, just urging caution!

[Stillwater]

It is easy to stage the SCL duplication, as money becomes available, and get some benefits from the investment.  You can't stage construction of a CRR project, for instance, stopping halfway under the Brisbane River and opening that bit for passengers who want to get out and check for leaks.  Whereas the state may not have $8 billion for CRR, it could scrape together $600m for duplication to Landsborough North and point to a return for the investment.

[ozbob]

SCL is 10 years over due.  Should be started immediately, it is achievable within state resources.

Interestingly another over length freighter made it's way up the NCL from Brisbane over the Christmas/New Year works.

CRR is a bit like east coast high speed rail.  Unlikely to be delivered any time soon, if ever.

[James]

CRR is a bit like east coast high speed rail.  Unlikely to be delivered any time soon, if ever.

I wouldn't be so harsh on CRR. I'd expect CRR to open by 2035 or so.

East Coast HSR however, is a pipe dream. To expect to see it in our lifetimes (assuming we don't live to 120) would be very optimistic.

[hU0N]

CRR is a bit like east coast high speed rail.  Unlikely to be delivered any time soon, if ever.

I wouldn't be so harsh on CRR. I'd expect CRR to open by 2035 or so.

East Coast HSR however, is a pipe dream. To expect to see it in our lifetimes (assuming we don't live to 120) would be very optimistic.

I dunno. I think they are both way beyond the resources that are available to fund them, and therefore Bob is right, unlikely soon if ever.

But in another way, I think they are very different. CRR is a worthwhile project with, regardless of iteration, a positive BCR that is somewhere between slim and teeny. Moreover, there is a good argument for it receiving very high patronage, possibly even reaching capacity within 10-15 years of opening.

Meanwhile east coast HSR is a marginal project at best that would stack up against domestic air travel poorly enough to limit itself to either unsustainably low fares, unsustainably low ridership, or both.

In short, CRR is a popular project that should be built but probably won't be for cost reasons.

East Coast HSR is a popular project that most probably shouldn't be built and probably won't be for cost reasons.

[#Metro]

One way to work out how genuine these HSR proposal are (irrespective of other factors such as consuming 25% of national income to construct, or the fact that planes travel 2x faster than the trains) is to simply propose HSR to the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coasts.

At 300 km/hour, it would take about 15-20 minutes to reach the Gold Coast, cutting travel times by over 60%, more if the service is frequently (say every 15 minutes). Even better it would allow the Beenleigh and GC lines to be separated, with the GC line to be along a more direct alignment.

Times to the Sunshine Coast would be similar. Costs would be high ($20 billion mark) however it would fill a large gap between cars (max speed 110 km/hr) and planes. It would be very competitive against motorways.

To me it seems silly to have Planes vs Trains. Trains are not going to win that one. But HSR vs Car, that is doable!

Gold and Sunshine Coasts are lines that planes cannot do easily, and have high population so the service would be extremely well used. Running at more than 2x the speed of the motorway, it would easily pull people off the motorway and have excellent patronage. And because the lines are shorter (80 km, 100km) they are also, in absolute terms, cheaper to construct and will attract much higher patronage.

Planes do a good job in Australia. For a country that has major problems even duplicating the Sunshine Coast line, long distance HSR is waaay off and should be regarded as votebait.