Queensland State Election 31st January 2015

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Queensland Election 2015: Days of uncertainty as hung parliament emerges

Queensland faces days of uncertainty with neither major party looking like picking up enough seats to win outright.

At last count on Sunday, Labor was expected to win 43 seats in the state's 89-member parliament, with the incumbent LNP retaining 39 seats.

But four seats, Whitsundays, Maryborough, Mansfield and Glass House remained in play.

Of those, three were expected to remain with the LNP with Labor's Bruce Saunders expected to limp across the line in Maryborough thanks to preferences.

But with 45 seats needed for a majority Labor was projected to fall one seat short.

That brings the two Katter's Australian Party MPs, Robbie Katter and Shane Knuth, and independent Sunshine Coast MP Peter Wellington's support into play.

All three were treated badly by the Newman Government, with the Katter Party MP's regularly singled out for contempt and attacks in parliament and Mr Wellington lambasted for what senior LNP ministers called his support for criminal motorcycle gangs, during the state's law and order reform battle.

All three signed a pledge last year as part of a crossbench coalition pledge to stop the LNP Government's proposed asset lease and privatisation plan. 

While Mr Wellington has indicated he would support Labor in a hung parliament, a move he made in 1998 to deliver power to Peter Beattie, Mr Katter said he had "no preconceived ideas".

"All we have is a list of priorities which we feel best reflect the interest of our electorates, but at the same time, deliver for Queensland," Mr Katter said on Sunday.

"If given the opportunity we will be presenting those priorities to both the major parties and see who best aligns with them and then make a decision after consulting with the party."

Mr Wellington was more absolute.

"I have already given a commitment that if I was to be re-elected, I would not support the LNP's proposed asset sales," he said.

"It is clearly the difference between Labor and the LNP."

Labor was reluctant to claim victory on Sunday, with Ms Palaszczuk choosing to make her first appearance at a thank you barbecue for supporters in Burpengary, where Mark Ryan took back the seat of Morayfield for the party with about an 18 per cent swing.

It was a calculated move by Ms Palaszczuk, who has spent the past 18 months guiding her party through a grassroots campaign, where doorknocking and community meet and greets took precedence over big spending promises and ad campaigns.

Ms Palaszczuk led her party, which was left with just seven MPs after the 2012 election, to its resurgence by building support back in traditional Labor heartland seats, around north Queensland and greater Brisbane.

She made asset leases the major issue of the campaign, running on a promise to not support the asset off-loading plan.

"Clearly Queenslanders have sent a message," she told supporters on Sunday.

"They have sent a message.  They do not want their assets sold.  And what is clear, it doesn't matter who leads the LNP.

"Whether it is Tim Nicholls, whether it is Scott Emerson, whether it is Lawrence Springborg, whether it is Jeff Seeney, they want to sell your assets. That is their only plan, their only plan is to sell your assets and Labor will stop that sale."

It may be what wins her government given both Mr Wellington and the Katter MP's distaste for privatisation.

But the LNP was not giving up with some MPs still optimistic the government could talk the Katter MPs across the line.

Many saw a government returned without Campbell Newman as leader as the preferred scenario, with Mr Newman's leadership style shouldering the blame for the voter backlash. 

But many were also turning their attention to Tony Abbott and "distracting" federal issues such as the Prince Philip knighthood, which they blamed for the LNP failing to gain traction in the crucial last week of the campaign.

But while Labor waits, the LNP is staying quiet as it attempts to work out who will lead it, most likely in opposition, after just one term out of the political wilderness.

"We reflect, analyse, discuss, work out a strategy and act from there," one said.

"What else can we do?"....

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> It's not the voters' fault, you idiots

... And getting it right means actually delivering on that very tired old cliche of governing for everyone. The harm done to the LNP on Saturday was entirely self harm.

And of all the wounds they inflicted upon themselves, none cut deeper and festered as poisonously as the threat that any seat voting for the Opposition could not expect a Newman government to deliver on any of it's promises.

There at least, was a promise you could trust them to keep. What stupid, arrogant thugs they were.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> The brutal politics of privatisation stark after Queensland election shock

[#Metro]

Anna Bligh was the last person one would expect to jump to asset sales, and yet she did it. What did she know that we don't?

The sale of Queensland Rail, for example, started, under Beattie, with multiple restructurings and name changes, along with the attendant issues of denial. It suggests that someone knows a lot more than they're letting on.

Queensland Rail, in a series of steps, became corporatised and then cut into shares held by Red Team ministers. It was then expanded outside of Queensland. At every step denials were issued.

Examples

2006

PETER MCCUTCHEON: Queensland Rail, or QR, this month announced it would buy hundreds of millions of dollars worth of rolling stock and freight routes in three other states. It's an aggressive and unusual move into the wider commercial world for a Queensland Government-owned enterprise. Why is a public sector body in Queensland purchasing rolling stock in Western Australia?

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2006/s1579692.htm

2007

The Premier said an all-out privatisation would never be an option.
"Queensland Rail is a national commercial business and is always looking at opportunities. However, there is no plan to privatise Queensland Rail," Mr Beattie said.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/plan-to-sell-off-queensland-rail/2007/07/25/1185043150671.html?page=fullpage

2007

Mr Beattie said he had asked Deputy Premier Anna Bligh and Minister for Transport and Main Roads Paul Lucas to review future structural arrangements and for the Chairman of QR to report back through them with proposals for consideration.

He said recent changes in the QR structure, including the creation of separate dedicated coal and bulk freight business groups were intended to provide greater customer focus for the businesses and increase accountability.

"These changes had received industry support, however further changes may yet be needed," Mr Beattie said.

"I have requested QR's Shareholding Ministers review future structural arrangements and for Mr John Prescott, Chair, QR, to report back to them with proposals in one month for consideration.

"As I've already made very clear - QR won't be privatised.

http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=171.0

Just two years later, it was sold by share float.

[#Metro]

The final piece of information comes from Sir Leo Hirschler, who spend 68 years in Queensland Government.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/leo-hielscher-backs-asset-sales-20140625-zslq6.html

One of Queensland's most-respected Treasury officials on both sides of politics says it makes sense to sell a selection of Queensland Government-owned assets.

Sir Leo Hielscher worked with 16 Queensland treasurers in a 68-year public service career, including 14 years as Queensland's Under Treasurer and 22 years with Queensland Treasury Corporation

There is a very real chance AP has promised something that she can't realistically deliver, it will be interesting to see where the funding supply is actually going to come from now.

Sir Leo said Queensland's debt was too high.

"We can't go further into debt because it is just too high," Sir Leo said.

"And if you want to continue the development of the economy and continue the development of the state and keep people in work and all of those sorts of things, you have to have capital.

"So where do you get it from?

"You get it from sale of the assets, whose destiny is already determined.

"They (the assets) are there. They will stay there, they won't run away. And you put that money into the next one (asset)."

Sir Leo agreed privatisation had a right time and wrong time.

"That is why we insisted on Queensland Railways running the coal rail system," he said.

"We wanted to make sure that the railways went where we wanted them to go to develop the whole Bowen Basin, for example.

[ozbob]

Twitter

Robert Dow @Robert_Dow19 minutes ago

MT / @qld_times Former Ipswich West MP rips into Liberal party bosses http://bit.ly/168t7sb  / #qldvotes bit late #qldpol

[ozbob]

Uh ... oh ... all bets might be off ...  if this is true the ECQ need tar and feathering for a start ..

Could be another by-election for Ferny Grove ..

========================

Twitter

LIBNATCHAT PAGE ‏@LIBNATCHATPAGE 10m10 minutes ago

#qldvotes Breaking news. The PUP candidate for Ferny grove is alleged to be an undischarged bankrupt and possibly... http://fb.me/2URlVVLHL

[ozbob]

As ALP in front FG, this would mean more than likely LNP on 42 seats, ALP 43 seats, 2 KAP. 1 Indi.

So if 2 KAP 1 Indi go with LNP could govern in theory, ALP would need two from 2 KAP, 1 Indi.

This folks would be the biggest basket case of all time.

I suspect though, the 2 KAP and 1 Indi would side with ALP under these circumstances to give a working majority pending outcome of FG by-election should that be necessary.

One has to ask, what in the fuk does the ECQ do to check candidates??  Announcement on all of this due at 1pm from ECQ

[nathandavid88]

Could be another independent added to the mix, with media reports last night and this morning that Pauline Hanson has snatched a small lead in Lockyer from the incumbent LNP member. 

[ozbob]

^ Hanson is out.  Once the large booths were counted she was not going to make it.

[ozbob]

^ Hanson is out.  Once the large booths were counted she was not going to make it.

Late oil from a scrutineer,  Hanson is back in front (not official)  if it stays LNP down 1 indies 2 ....  WTF!!

Could depend on final postals, be weeks ..   

[ozbob]

^

http://www.qt.com.au/news/hanson-ahead-because-labor-voters-ignored-how-vote/2531533/?ref=hs

QT EXCLUSIVE: Postal and absentee votes look set to decide the outcome in the state seat of Lockyer after a day of see-sawing swings in the battle between Pauline Hanson and Ian Rickuss.

The QT can reveal that after 80% of the vote count One Nation's Ms Hanson is on 9411 votes and the LNP's Ian Rickuss has 9260 votes after preferences. Ms Hanson has a lead of 151 votes.

At 12.20pm on Monday the Electoral Commission Queensland (ECQ) website had Mr Rickuss on 8208 votes and Ms Hanson on 8123, a lead for the sitting LNP member of 85.

But the count is far ahead of that with an LNP scrutineer on the ground giving the QT a report of the situation as it stands.

The figures are unofficial, but at 12.20pm the scrutineer said Ms Hanson had the lead.

The scrutineer said there were 32 booths in the Lockyer with the other 29 booths of the total of 61 booths referred to on the ECQ website being made up of tiny pre-poll booths that contain few votes.

"We have counted all but two of the 32 local booths and Pauline is ahead by 151 votes," the scrutineer said. "The one that turned it around for her was at Hatton Vale where she received 873 votes to 648. She won that by around 220 votes and that put her ahead after Ian was in the lead for most of the morning."

The scrutineer said it was likely the result in Lockyer would not be known for weeks.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Queensland election 2015: Ferny Grove could be headed to by-election

[nathandavid88]

The Ferny Grove PUP candidate has been confirmed to be an undischarged bankrupt, with ECQ referring the matter to Crown Law for advice. It could result in a By-election!

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-ferny-grove-could-be-headed-to-byelection-20150203-134uok.html


Edit: You beat me by THAT much!

[ozbob]

 

[ozbob]

Twitter

Shane Doherty ‏@ShaneDoherty9 6 minutes ago Brisbane, Queensland

Count continues in Ferny Grove. Candidate a bankrupt. Crown law to deal with him. Parties can decide whether outcome affected/valid #9News

===============

^ farce.  If you win I guess it is 'valid' if you lose guess it isn't hey? 

[ozbob]

KAP is making demands, no tunnels, no stadiums, inland highways.

I am fast coming to the point of view that the next govt is a really a poisoned chalice and will not go the distance.

Ferny Grove will be challenged by the loser for sure.  Hanson a chance.     

[SurfRail]

As ALP in front FG, this would mean more than likely LNP on 42 seats, ALP 43 seats, 2 KAP. 1 Indi.

So if 2 KAP 1 Indi go with LNP could govern in theory, ALP would need two from 2 KAP, 1 Indi.

This folks would be the biggest basket case of all time.

I suspect though, the 2 KAP and 1 Indi would side with ALP under these circumstances to give a working majority pending outcome of FG by-election should that be necessary.

One has to ask, what in the fuk does the ECQ do to check candidates??  Announcement on all of this due at 1pm from ECQ

They rely on declarations as far as I'm aware.  The guy will probably be prosecuted.

Bankruptcy searches on every candidate aren't that expensive compared to a by-election - I can do them from my work machine.  You do get multiple hits (usually you can distinguish with the middle name but not always), but it would still work out cheaper.

[ozbob]

LNP is back in front of Hanson. 

If FG back to the polls, could be stalemate all round.  LNP could promise the world to KAP and Wellington, so could Labor I guess.  Is this really a good outcome?  LOL 

Junk the lot and start over ...

LNP 42 + 2KAP = 44      ALP = 43 + 1ind = 44  No one can govern ...  back to polls for everyone ...

[James]

Well I guess Campbell Newman was right on two things. If you vote for a minority government, you get chaos, and if Campbell loses, the LNP loses (majority government).

If we look back on the Federal and Victorian minority governments elected in 2010, it can be seen whoever holds minority government loses. Probably in LNP's best interests to not negotiate and let the ALP deal with being in a minority government held hostage by KAP and possibly even Pauline Hanson (god help us).

I suspect Wellington is sure to support the ALP given the LNP very much dislikes him.

[colinw]

We've been here before, and it wasn't the end of the world.

First, with the National/Liberal coalition Borbidge Government in 1996 after the Mundingburra by-election. Borbidge governed as a minority Government with support from Liz Cunningham (Gladstone).  That Government ruled effectively despite the razor thin margin in Parliament, even managing to get a couple of big projects up including the M1 upgrade down the Gold Coast.

Then with the 1998 "One Nation" election, the situation was reversed with ALP getting in as a minority Government, ruling with the support of Peter Wellington (Nicklin) and Liz Cunningham (Gladstone).  Again, that Government functioned quite well despite the thin margin in Parliament - and it is that support for Beattie forming Government that earned Wellington the undying hatred of the LNP.

The Parliament and members have a responsibility to try and make this work, not just chuck in the towel and have another election.  That effectively says "you lot got it wrong, have another go", which is a crap way to try and run a democracy (in my opinion).

[ozbob]

I really expect Peter Wellington to support the ALP.  So if FG stands, 44 + 1 = 45 = Govt.

If FG goes no longer a majority.  KAP could support either LNP or ALP.  My gut feeling is more likely ALP, if that is the case no real issue.

If the KAP support LNP it will all depend on FG by-election should that occur to see who forms Govt.  So it could be a long time before things become clear.

There might be other legal challenges to results as well, often is.

[aldonius]

Ferny Grove really could go either way. It was close.

It'll be really annoying for all involved if we do need the by-election. The timing means it will be just after uni starts back, and the knife-edge situation locally and statewide means we'll get absolutely bombarded with campaigning.

[colinw]

Campbell Newman for Ferny Grove. 

[ozbob]

Campbell Newman for Ferny Grove. 

It has been suggested elsewhere! 

Campbell is a spent force now though.  If it goes to by-election be original candidates  (minus the PUP one) and probably a Melbourne cup field of others ... 

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Queensland Election 2015: Result of Ferny Grove seat facing legal scrutiny

[pandmaster]

Well I guess Campbell Newman was right on two things. If you vote for a minority government, you get chaos, and if Campbell loses, the LNP loses (majority government).

I knew I should not have ticked the "Hung parliament" box on Saturday! 

Other jurisdictions have hung parliaments all the time and they get by just fine. It is really not a big deal. I suppose you could call the federal parliament "hung" since there is no majority in the senate for any party. What difference does it make which house/s lack a majority.

The election was a few days ago, of course there is "chaos". As with every election, there are close seats that will take a while to be determined. This time the election just happens to be close so the "chaos" is relevant to the overall result.

[James]

I knew I should not have ticked the "Hung parliament" box on Saturday! 

Other jurisdictions have hung parliaments all the time and they get by just fine. It is really not a big deal. I suppose you could call the federal parliament "hung" since there is no majority in the senate for any party. What difference does it make which house/s lack a majority.

The election was a few days ago, of course there is "chaos". As with every election, there are close seats that will take a while to be determined. This time the election just happens to be close so the "chaos" is relevant to the overall result.

The difference with other jurisdictions - like the UK, Canada and Germany - is that their 'hung parliaments' are often controlled by multiple major parties. Canada has the Conservatives, Liberals, New Democratic and Bloc Québécois (Quebec Nationalists) - where NDP align with the Conservatives socially and the Liberals fiscally, and BQ is a French nationalist party. Similar situation in the UK and Germany. If BQ are off with the pixies about turning part of British Columbia into a French colony, a party can negotiate with the NDP instead.

What is happening in Queensland is you have two major parties with a few independents set to hold the state 'hostage'. If the ALP/LNP both win 43 seats, Rob Katter can do whatever he damn well wants to with the state, and his views represent those held by a small minority of Queenslanders. I think it is generally unhealthy for one party to hold the balance of power in any representative body (Senate included).

At least if one party wins 44 seats, Wellington will probably naturally side with them to provide reasonably stable governance (albeit on a knife edge), with only really a few local, rational demands. James personally has his fingers crossed for Wellington to bring DST to the table, but that's another can of worms.

[#Metro]

Agree with james. While I don't agree with Green team policies all the time, they have a good share of the vote and should get some representation.

Need 4 year terms. And maybe proportional voting for the lower house. That would work well and not require an upper house. Minority status would keep parties in check.

NZ and Sweden operate on this system. There are still two main players but more scope for deal making, and much more diversity in who you want to pick.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_Parliament
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riksdag

[aldonius]

Balance of power is a dumb phenomenon and really only exists when the major parties refuse to work together on anything.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Everyone's talking about it - but no answers for Queensland yet

[ozbob]

Twitter

Matt Wordsworth ‏@MattWordsworth 1 minute ago

. @pwellingtonmp says he will announce his decision on which party to support tomorrow. Hoping to make a joint statement with KAP #qldvotes

[ozbob]

^

If KAP + Wellington support same minority party all over tomorrow. 

42 + 3 = 45  LNP

43 + 3 = 46 ALP

Ferny Grove outcome not in play.

If KAP go with LNP  then 42 + 2= 44   would have to hope for by-election FG turning out blue.

If Wellington goes with ALP 43+ 1 = 44 again, would have to hope for by-election FG turning out red

If FG stands of course, and Wellington goes with ALP then 44+ 1 = 45  = govt.

The other unlikely scenario is ALP + KAP = 43 +2  = 45  govt

LNP 42 + Wellington = 43

I think we might have an ALP minority govt tomorrow.

[SurfRail]

Whitsunday is on a razor edge too - only 88 votes between them 2PP when I checked earlier today.  Probably will stay with the LNP but very small chance it might change hands.

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Queensland Election 2015: D-day for Peter Wellington

[ozbob]

7 News  > https://au.news.yahoo.com/video/watch/26198330/major-development-set-to-affect-queensland-election/

Major development set to affect Queensland election
7News Brisbane February 4, 2015, 7:41 pm

Annastacia Palaszczuk could have the numbers she needs to be Queensland's next Premier by tomorrow night. Geoff Breusch reports.

[ozbob]

Twitter

Geoff Breusch ‏@gbreusch 19 minutes ago

Katter MPs have #qldvotes presser at 0830. No indication if they've made a decision. They were a fair distance from one last night. #7NewsQ

[ozbob]

Twitter

Campbell Newman ‏@theqldpremier 17 minutes ago

I have asked the party room chair to call a party room meeting for 11am this Saturday. Important it waited until seats were clear. #qldpol

[ozbob]

Twitter

Bridie Jabour ‏@bkjabour 3 seconds ago

KAP call presser to say they still haven't decided who to support in the Queensland election - say they aren't leaning any way #qldvotes

[ozbob]

Now that KAP have effectively shown their hand, I reckon we will not have a govt till FG re-run, except if either LNP or ALP jag another seat.

It is possible that labor could form with Govt with Wellington, but if they lose FG Govt would change.