Queensland State Election 31st January 2015

[ozbob]

If the ALP win, tendering is dead.

That doesn't mean that we can't still keep hammering away at improvements. 

The ALP's leader and possible Premier happens to have a prominent member of this forum in her electorate...

Spot on ...

[BrizCommuter]

No pork-barrel glider for Ashgrove.

[#Metro]

If the ALP win, tendering is dead.

That doesn't mean that we can't still keep hammering away at improvements. 

The ALP's leader and possible Premier happens to have a prominent member of this forum in her electorate...

It is unlikely the bus network will be reviewed in the Brisbane area - that's pretty much what the pledge said. This means black hole retention!

The only thing that can be hoped for is upload of BT to the State of Queensland, in the same way as STA in Sydney.

[SurfRail]

Privatisation isn't required to make things work better.

The view most of us take (and I think correctly) is that it is probably the best way to achieve the policy objectives we want to see, but there is nothing stopping us pushing for network reforms.

Banging on about tendering is not going to get any traction with anybody for the next 3 years, so I expect it is time to focus on other things.

Taking the buses off council was always the main issue in our particular situation I think.  If that involves a State entity, I can live with that.

The BaT has probably flown, which I think is sensible.

[#Metro]

Privatisation isn't required to make things work better.

The view most of us take (and I think correctly) is that it is probably the best way to achieve the policy objectives we want to see, but there is nothing stopping us pushing for network reforms.

Banging on about tendering is not going to get any traction with anybody for the next 3 years, so I expect it is time to focus on other things.

Greatest benefits come from when contracting reforms and network reforms are taken together. First reform ensures service maximised from a fixed dollar, second reform allocates service to where it will be useful.

[ozbob]

Ok ... I will keep it brief.  The basic issue with the LNP was that they would not listen. Full stop. One of the reasons I resigned from the PTAG. I hoped that the resignation might, just might get have got them to get into gear. They still refused to listen. Emerson rang me often when he was in opposition, when elected he put up a firewall.  I tried to get through to them that the basic issues - network and fare reform were the real issues that garner votes. Ignored.

Labor have always been approachable.  It is still not clear what the outcome is here. It DOES NOT MATTER now.  Both ALP and LNP will now listen. I have no doubt. That is what happens when numbers are close.

FF, I would not despair about the SCL. It will be done.

To you all, the guys who did the bus maps, LD, all of you, we have done very well indeed. Thanks  Keep smiling, tomorrow is another day.

Remember, Queensland is a very, very special place! 

[Gazza]

From this point, I reckon the feds have no hope of winning in 2016.

Simple fact is that the Libs believe in smaller government.

The first step was to cut keep cutting taxes during the Howard era to win votes, which eroded the revenue base.

The second step was to correspondingly cut back in areas like Medicare, universities, social services, public transport infrastructure and the like.

So basically people liked the first step, but won't accept the second.

[techblitz]

If anyone saw the national press club today particularly john howards speech....he was asked for his greatest piece of advice to stay in government for a kong time.....4 words....ENGAGING with the people!

[dancingmongoose]

no cross-river transit solution

No BAT thank God

I'm not too sure we're safe on that, at the last minute they said they will run their own review of the BaT through Building QLD, and that terrifies me. I'd much rather the ALP say it's gone we're doing CRR but they didn't.

[aldonius]

With any luck the end result of that will be to fix the biggest problems (Park Rd, the strength of the top deck).

[James]

Trad signed an election pledge saying she pledges to retain the BCC bus network in full, with Union backing on top of that.

As far as I can see, any significant changes to the network are gone. Lobbying will probably do very little, direct services mantra will just become more ingrained as ALP refuses to cut any routes.

[#Metro]

From this point, I reckon the feds have no hope of winning in 2016.

Simple fact is that the Libs believe in smaller government.

The first step was to cut keep cutting taxes during the Howard era to win votes, which eroded the revenue base.

The second step was to correspondingly cut back in areas like Medicare, universities, social services, public transport infrastructure and the like.

So basically people liked the first step, but won't accept the second.

I was a bit taken back by the personalisation techniques used by red team - almost like a unpopularity cult following. Just look at all the hate spew sites on Facebook for Newman and Abbott. SOS/Hands off buses is one of those, and probably along the milder end of the spectrum. My goodness...  You have to remember CN was the Brisbane Lord Mayor for a long time and generally got along well with voters then. That was over a long period of time.

I fully expect that will be used again at a Federal level, hoping to repeat the Victorian and QLD experiences.

In the same way that sometimes large expansions are required, sometimes large cuts are required, just like rearranging a bus network.

The great counter-weight to all of this though is the finances. Finances are going to limit Red Team - 2BN/year from GOCs is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Large inroads to paying off the debt have not been made and so there is going to be a natural and powerful financial constraint on what the state can do. Don't expect large projects to get funding and expect to see a return to gloss-shifting: glossy reports with vague timelines that get shifted out further and further into the future.

[SurfRail]

Trad signed an election pledge saying she pledges to retain the BCC bus network in full, with Union backing on top of that.

As far as I can see, any significant changes to the network are gone. Lobbying will probably do very little, direct services mantra will just become more ingrained as ALP refuses to cut any routes.

Taking the operation off a Liberal council might be seen as politically acceptable.  You never know.

Plenty of things to consider over the next week or so.

[Arnz]

I would not be suprised if Trad and/or Anna P tries to acquire BT from the BCC at some point for 'finding efficiencies' in running PT, despite the LNP run council.  Even if it means legislating such a thing to do so.

[Gazza]

Yes, I mean when I spoke to my local ALP candidate she seemed very receptive to the principles behind bus reform and what was wrong with the network in the Mt Ommaney area.

In other news

[ozbob]

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/poll-call-polling-day-saturday-january-31-20150131-132lvx.html

The LNP has issued the following statement on its Facebook page:

After just three short years Queensland is a better state to live, work and raise a family – and we'll continue to work hard to that end.

Our government has pursued a forthright reform agenda because it was in the best interests of Queensland.

The budget had to be returned to surplus, Labor's $80 billion debt does have to be tackled, and we did need to take strong and decisive action to make our communities safer.

Now, because the Newman LNP Government took the right decisions early, the Queensland economy is now on track to record the strongest growth in the nation this year.

We thank all our wonderful candidates and hardworking members and volunteers for helping us achieve this and for your continued support to make our state even better.

[James]

Taking the operation off a Liberal council might be seen as politically acceptable.  You never know.

Plenty of things to consider over the next week or so.

I don't see it as being a path the ALP is going to pursue - Trad has stated her support for the status quo.

Personally, after seeing the whining and stupidity in the community, James is becoming very pessimistic about bus reform. We now have a transport minister who "pledges to fight the LNP's plan to privatise our BCC buses and commit to support retention of all these services into the future." As far as I see, this reads very strongly as a commitment to not reforming the bus network.

After going to the 'Hands Off Our Buses' rally, I realised we are up against a Union giant which is willing to throw tens of thousands of dollars to save their own backsides, and an army of grannies and opposition MPs merely looking for an opportunity to leverage political capital and grab headlines. I'll believe network reform when I see an increase in frequency at my local stop.

[#Metro]

Bus network unlikely to be reformed. Maybe a bit of window-dressing here and there.

There is no reason to review the bus network politically - there are no votes in it. It is already been taken over by Gov't, it cannot be taken over some more. BCC does not want to change, demonstrated already by test in 2013.

With James on this one - I'll believe it when I see it.

[techblitz]

After going to the 'Hands Off Our Buses' rally, I realised we are up against a Union giant which is willing to throw tens of thousands of dollars to save their own backsides

Your kidding...you only just realised this? I realised it from 2013 when the original review got canned...

On ashgrove......campbell offered a glider extension......kates plan was easy...retain retain retain...and look who brought home the bacon......it could have been her rather small " dont privatise" campaign which got her the extra votes needed.....we will never know.

[techblitz]

Until planners/politicians engage with everyday commuters on what they want...whether it be a smaller walk to bus stops and direct trips in exchange for lower frequency services or vice versa..The brisbane bus network will just continue to run on autopilot....

[cartoonbirdhaus]

...Until it slams into the side of a mountain.

[#Metro]

I tried to get through to them that the basic issues - network and fare reform were the real issues that garner votes. Ignored.

Hi-waste gimmicks like 9-then free, 5% fare cut, totally USELESS now, LOL...

[ozbob]

From the Sunday Mail 1st February 2015 page 17

Desperate last throw of dice

[ozbob]

I always suspected there really was a plan B ... crikey 

[James]

Campbell Newman is gone now - I don't see him coming back. Probably more beneficial if he goes and takes the baggage with him.

Your kidding...you only just realised this? I realised it from 2013 when the original review got canned...

On ashgrove......campbell offered a glider extension......kates plan was easy...retain retain retain...and look who brought home the bacon......it could have been her rather small " dont privatise" campaign which got her the extra votes needed.....we will never know.

I didn't see much action from the Unions in 2013, to be honest. Sure, there was something there, but the majority of the scare campaigns seemed to be run by the ALP opposition and BCC (with the assistance of headline grabbers in both cases - grannies, disabled et al). Sure, there was Save Our Services (SOS), but a lot of that went out too late to have an impact.

Now excuse me, I need to pop down to the newsagents to pick up my 10 trip saver.

[ozbob]

Campbell Newman is gone now - I don't see him coming back. Probably more beneficial if he goes and takes the baggage with him.

Yes, now.  The above plan B would have been if the LNP say got back in with a reasonable working majority say 55 seats or so IMHO.

The LNP should have selected a better seat for Newman from the outset.  But maybe there was another sub plot.  They thought they would get rid of Newman and still be in Govt? 

I have tweeted Scott Emerson asking if the article re 'plan B' is true or false ..   

[BrizCommuter]

Given Campbell Newman's continued arrogance in his Ashgrove defeat speech, I think the LNP are better off without him. Have they learnt to listen to the people? No. Have they learnt to stop pushing an excessive conservative ideology? No.

[Gazza]

Did you hear Emmerson on Channel 9 last night? (Or in fact any radio interview he does)
He's actually more arrogant than Newman IMO.

[ozbob]

Did you hear Emmerson on Channel 9 last night? (Or in fact any radio interview he does)
He's actually more arrogant than Newman IMO.

Yo, it was a shocker ...

There will much jubilation within certain GOCs this morning .. just saying ... 

[Arnz]

Did you hear Emmerson on Channel 9 last night? (Or in fact any radio interview he does)
He's actually more arrogant than Newman IMO.

Yo, it was a shocker ...

There will much jubilation within certain GOCs this morning .. just saying ... 

And hopefully an improved customer service & transparency from one certain Statutory Authority, especially on their facebook page.

[BrizCommuter]

Did you hear Emmerson on Channel 9 last night? (Or in fact any radio interview he does)
He's actually more arrogant than Newman IMO.

Yo, it was a shocker ...

There will much jubilation within certain GOCs this morning .. just saying ... 

There will be jubilation in pretty much every government department!

[ozbob]

Twitter

ABC News Brisbane ‏@ABCNewsBrisbane 8 minutes ago

Independent Nicklin MP, Peter Wellington, prepared to negotiate with a minority Labor government #qldvotes #qldpol http://ab.co/1ymraQi

[ozbob]

Twitter

ABC News 24 ‏@ABCNews24 6 hours ago

#qldvotes count 11am AET: Labor 43 seats, LNP 40 seats, KAP 2 seats, Independent 1 seat, three undecided #qldpol

[ozbob]

Queensland Times --> 399 votes could determine the outcome of the election: Tully

ELECTION expert Cr Paul Tully says that fewer than 400 votes could determine the outcome of what has been an historic state election.

Cr Tully, who tipped a hung parliament in his pre-election preview in the QT, said the current state of play had Labor on 43 seats, the LNP with 40, KAP on two and the independent Peter Wellington home in Nicklin.

Mansfield, Maryborough and Whitsunday remain in doubt.

"The LNP cannot win the election in its own right," Cr Tully said.

"If they win all three seats which are in doubt and the Katter's Australian Party sided with them, which Bob Katter said on Channel 7 last night that he would not do, this would give the LNP 45 seats on the floor of the House - a real hung parliament.

"The independent Peter Wellington has publicly said he will not support a minority LNP government.

"If two or three of the doubtful seats go to Labor, that would give the ALP a majority government with either 45 or 46 seats.

"If Labor wins only one of the doubtful seats, it could form government with 44 seats and presumably Peter Wellington as speaker."

The latest official two-candidate preferred margins in the three seats according to the Electoral Commission Queensland show the ALP ahead by 25 votes in Mansfield, the ALP 685 votes ahead in Maryborough and the LNP ahead by 84 votes in Whitsunday.

Cr Tully said 50 % of these margins, plus one, was enough to swing the vote the other way.

"Based on the current margins, it would require 13 votes to reverse the current trend in Mansfield, 343 votes in Maryborough and 43 votes in Maryborough, a total of 399," he said.

"So, just 399 votes could ultimately determine the outcome of the 2015 election when it goes down to the wire with all postal and absentee votes in."

[ozbob]

Twitter

Nine News Brisbane ‏@9NewsBrisbane 15 minutes ago

Labor & LNP will likely end up with 43 seats each, leaving independents to decide who's in charge #QldVotes #9News

[ozbob]

Well could still be a LNP Govt if the Katters go with LNP and the LNP gets 43 seats ...  but the Katters say they are against ' asset leases/sales ' so the whole policy program based on that is then null and void? 

So no BaT even if LNP in Govt, and the other projects based on asset leases will not get up either (eg. SCL duplication) ...

Could end up with a really big mess!

[#Metro]

Keep Katter out! IMHO, Katter et al are lunatics and too big a risk.

Much better to have Wellington + 1 other other one for stability.

[James]

Keep Katter out! IMHO, Katter et al are lunatics and too big a risk.

Much better to have Wellington + 1 other other one for stability.

No other independents aside from Wellington. If the ALP only get 43 seats, the predictions of "chaos" under a hung parliament will probably be accurate, as anybody will need Katter support to pass any partisan bill. 44 seats will provide stability, but only just. Possible repeat of the circus experienced after the 1995 election?

[#Metro]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Katter

Katter was a minister in the Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen-led National Party government, holding various portfolios between 1983 and 1989.

HA! The Irony!

Stay away from the lunatics!!

[SurfRail]

According to the ABC, the 3 seats left in doubt at Mansfield, Maryborough and Whitsunday.

Numbers currently point to the ALP taking at least one of those seats but postal votes won't be completely returned for a week or so.  Depending on how close the count gets it could be a while before things are sorted out.