Queensland State Election 31st January 2015

[red dragin]

This election has degenerated into a shambles IMHO.   

Just gets crazier by the hour ....

Newman et al suing Jones and 4BC.  Palmer reckons he is suing Springborg now.   

The root cause is that donations to political parties can be and are being hidden.

My philosophy is this.  ALL donations to ALL parties/indies be declared real time online.  I stress ALL.  Why hide them?

Newman et al. changed the rules from declaring donations over $1000 to declaring donations over $12,400.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-22/lnp-donation-threshold-changes-spark-fiery-debate/5469606

Excuse was it brings it into line with the Feds. According to that article 95% of donations at the last election, if these new rules were in place, wouldn't have been declared.

There was also changes to money returned to parties based on votes to cover campaigns and a removal on the spending cap on campaigns.

I was too young (born 1982) to really experience the "Joh Era" but these guys are starting to make me nervous.

[ozbob]

Couriermail --> Opinion: Wheels falling off Campbell Newman's campaign, which needs to stay on message and strategy

[ozbob]

And this ..

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Twitter

Daniel Hurst ‏@danielhurstbne 2 minutes ago

Lots of plans on display ahead of LNP costings being released #qldvotes

[ozbob]

^



GC Light Rail ??

[SurfRail]

Fingers crossed...

There are plenty of other competing rail projects that the remaining balance would pay for, in whole or part:

- Additional funding for BaT
- Various track duplication projects - Landsborough/Nambour, Sandgate/Shorncliffe, Manly/Cleveland, Airport, Doomben
- Various track amplification projects - 4th track Petrie to Strathpine, electrify 4th track Corinda to Darra and 4th platform at Oxley, additional tracks or freight refuges between Beerwah and Petrie, 3rd track Darra to Redbank, 4th track Yeerongpilly to Kuraby
- Realignment projects (Trinder Park being a big one)
- Level crossing eliminations (South Pine Rd is close to somebody's electorate...)
- Downpayment on safeworking upgrades (ETRMS Level 2, ATP etc)
- Freight upgrades - Gowrie to Grandchester, Rosewood to Kagaru, Bromelton to the PoB
- Any number of potential station DDA upgrades
- Line extensions way down the list (Ripley, Flagstone, Coolangatta, Maroochydore)
- More stabling
- More trains (increase the NGR order to 105 x 6 car sets to beat the Waratah order of 626 cars as being the biggest ever)

Even ignoring BaT and any line extensions other than Kippa-Ring (already paid for), you could swallow up that $8.3bn on the rail system alone and still not be done.

[ozbob]

Twitter

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 45 seconds ago

#ReachTEL Poll QLD Seat of Ashgrove 2PP: Newman LNP 46 (-1) Jones ALP 54 (+1) #qldvotes #auspol

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[ozbob]

Twitter

Eammon Atkinson ‏@EAtkinson7 2 minutes ago

DAMNING POLL: After preferences @theqldpremier now trails @katejonesqld in Ashgrove. #qldvotes @7NewsBrisbane

[Stillwater]

Quick!  Promise a couple of new tents to the Ashgrove Boy Scouts.

[SurfRail]

The bookies are allowing for even more ALP wins than I thought.

My original prediction was 50 LNP, 35 ALP, 2 KAP, Peter Wellington and Liz Cunningham.  Then became 50 LNP, 36 ALP, 2 KAP and Peter Wellington once Liz announced her retirement.

Then ended up 50LNP, 35 ALP, 2 KAP, Peter Wellington and Chris Foley (the independent for Maryborough) once he started polling well for his comeback.

Last I checked the odds on offer favoured 47 LNP, 38 ALP, 2 KAP, Peter Wellington and Chris Foley.

If the LNP lost only 3 more seats they would be a minority government, or force another poll which probably wouldn't go better for them.

[ozbob]

The Red and the Blue --> Queensland: Newman Gone In Possible LNP Election Loss

[ozbob]

Twitter

CR PAUL TULLY Goodna ‏@PaulTully 60 minutes ago

#qldvotes #qldpol #auspol - At 5.30am, SportsBet shows the 89 seats: ALP 37, LNP 48, IND 2, KAP 2, PUP 0. Ashgrove ALP $1.35, LNP $3.00.

[ozbob]

http://www.ara.net.au/UserFiles/file/Media%20Releases/Rail-releases-its-project-priorities-for-Queensland.pdf



^ bit late ...

[ozbob]

The Conversation --> Ten things to watch on and after election night in Queensland

[ozbob]

Twitter

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 12 minutes ago

#ReachTEL Poll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: LNP 52 (0) ALP 48 (0) #qldvotes #auspol

[ozbob]

Brisbanetimes --> Queensland election 2015: Latest poll: LNP maintains election-winning lead

... a majority of voters believed Opposition Leader Annastascia Palaszczuk had performed better in the election campaign than her rival Premier Campbell Newman.

The fate of state-owned assets was rated as the issue that would most influence respondents' voters followed by the environment, health, the economy, public transport, education, and traffic and roads ...

Well there you go red rover, neglecting detailed policy for public transport has probably cost you the election ...

[ozbob]

>> https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-queensland-poll-29january2015

[#Metro]

Any polls for Ashgrove?

Checked website , http://annastacia.com.au/labor-policies/still no announced public transport policy from Red Team, despite it being explicity promised at the Politics in the Pub event.

Green team have the best policy suite so far, a pity they are too dispersed to get a set anywhere.

[achiruel]

IN some way it may actually benefit the ALP to not win this election.  To be honest, I never thought Ms Palaszczuk would have made a good premier.

Labor will enter the next Parliament with a significantly increased presence and will be able to build a more effective Opposition, and I wouldn't be surprised if Cameron Dick becomes the new Opposition Leader.

[SurfRail]

She's done a remarkable job for them to be within basically a hair's breadth of a hung parliament after 2012.  Can't attribute all of that to the LNP.

[ozbob]

Twitter

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4 hours ago

#Galaxy Poll QLD Seat of Ashgrove Primaries: Newman LNP 42 ALP 48 GRN 8 #qldvotes #auspol

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Twitter

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4 hours ago

#Galaxy Poll QLD Seat of Ashgrove 2PP: Newman LNP 45 Jones ALP 55 #qldvotes #auspol

[ozbob]

Brisibanetimes --> Queensland Election 2015: Premier Campbell Newman on brink of losing his seat


Well, there you go.  Premier Newman promised a new fare structure for SEQ in the January 2013 six month action plan.  Still waiting ..

My own personal view is that if Premier Newman is replaced, there will be many quietly cheering within the LNP. 

[ozbob]

She's done a remarkable job for them to be within basically a hair's breadth of a hung parliament after 2012.  Can't attribute all of that to the LNP.

Indeed. AP has done surprisingly well.

[#Metro]

The failure to abolish Brisbane City Council's public transport responsibilities or deal with genuine network reform could now have dire consequences for the next Queensland Government election and Premier Campbell Newman. Bus reform would see two upgraded high frequency services transit directly through the centre of Ashgrove electorate with a key interchange point at Ashgrove.

The 911 UQ CityConnector begins at Brookside Shopping Centre, travels through Mitchelton, Ashgrove, Bardon, Toowong and on to UQ via Metroad 5. It is formed from the amalgamation of the current BCC 411 and Great Circle Line. The 380 The Gap along a new Payne Road alignment also runs through Ashgrove and the key interchange point at Ashgrove will permit passengers from both 385 The Gap and our proposed 380 The Gap to access this 911 UQ CityConnector service without having to travel to the Brisbane CBD and then out again. It is formed from the amalgamation of 379, 380, 381 and other services. Does Campbell Newman and electorate challenger Kate Jones support bus reform and upgraded services for the Ashgrove Electorate?"

http://railbotforum.org/mbs/index.php?topic=11047.0

[HappyTrainGuy]

I really hate and can't stand elections. They all have good policies but at the same time they all have sh%t ones that make you want to vote for the other mob. 

[ozbob]

Twitter

Australian Rail Maps ‏@railmaps 9 seconds ago

#qldvotes Sportsbet updated odds on Ashgrove electorate 3:30pm Newman (LNP) $4.00 out from $3.50 Jones (ALP) $1.22 in from $1.27

[ozbob]

Twitter

Australian Rail Maps ‏@railmaps 13 minutes ago

#qldvotes Sportsbet Ashgrove electorate odds at 4:30 Newman (LNP) $5.00 out from $4.20 Jones (ALP) $1.15 in from $1.20

[ozbob]

Twitter

Bridie Jabour ‏@bkjabour 20 seconds ago

Channel Nine exit poll has an ALP win. 54% to 46% 2PP. #qldvotes

=====================

^

interesting, but has little weight really.   

[ozbob]

Twitter

Nine News Brisbane ‏@9NewsBrisbane 3 minutes ago

JUST IN: #9News Galaxy exit poll after preferences has @QLDLabor 54% to @LNPQLD 46%. #QldVotes #QldPol

[ozbob]

Twitter

Australian Rail Maps ‏@railmaps 2 minutes ago

#qldvotes Sportsbet Ashgrove electorate odds at 5:30 after exit polls Newman (LNP) $10.00 out from $5.00 Jones (ALP) $1.03 in from $1.15

[#Metro]

JUST IN: #9News Galaxy exit poll after preferences has @QLDLabor 54% to @LNPQLD 46%. #QldVotes #QldPol

Well if she gets in, it is unclear how network reform is going to proceed with BCC blocking bus reform, and being run by LNP Mayor. Patronage likely to fall given all the cheap petrol.

Does Graham Quirk realise that he's up for election in early 2016? Bus Network shambles could easily mean he's out.

[ozbob]

Twitter

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 10 seconds ago

#ReachTEL Exit Poll QLD Seat of Ashgrove 2PP: Newman LNP 44 Jones ALP 56 #qldvotes #auspol

[James]

Well if she gets in, it is unclear how network reform is going to proceed with BCC blocking bus reform, and being run by LNP Mayor. Patronage likely to fall given all the cheap petrol.

Does Graham Quirk realise that he's up for election in early 2016? Bus Network shambles could easily mean he's out.

I doubt, most people were championing him as the saviour of the buses. Quirk also won with a huge majority in 2012, gaining seats and so forth. I think it is unlikely to see Quirk go in 2016, nor the attitude within BCC/BT to change.

If ALP win, bus network reform is screwed. BT will become a lost cause. Jackie Trad has committed to keeping the current bus network in full and is at the mercy of the unions. PT in general will be stuffed. No upgrade to Landsborough, no cross-river transit solution (just a CRR plan which isn't funded in any way) and no commitment to any public transport upgrades. It is all too hard.

Might as well just hop in the car and never look back. Vroom vroom!

[ozbob]

This might sound a bit odd ... but in some respects I would be very comfortable with a small majority LNP Govt.  I think they might finally really listen.

[#Metro]

Listen to the discussion swirling around bus transport in Brisbane. It isn't about service standards, frequency, speed, reliability, affordable fares, good network plan... no, it is about who owns what, *OMG PROFITS!*, power, *OMG CUUUTS!* and control.

This isn't about passengers or services.

Given this, it is my current opinion that Brisbane Transport has become a political tool; It has stopped focusing on passengers and instead focus on how generate a political return for politicians; staff have become a fundraising vehicle for political campaigns, and the organisation has become a political pivot during State and Council Elections for both sides (i.e. Maroon Wasteglider, Bus Review Rejection, Cuts disproportionately in ALP wards)

Does Graham Quirk honestly think the RTBU and BT is going to be used to support him in 2016, which is only months after contestability opens and there could well be industrial action? The guy is in dream land!!

[Old Northern Road]

no cross-river transit solution

No BAT thank God

[ozbob]

Twitter

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 25 seconds ago

#qldvotes Seat of Ashgrove 2PP (40.6% counted): Newman LNP 44.9 (-10.8) ALP 55.1 (+10.8) #auspol

[HappyTrainGuy]

Given this, it is my current opinion that Brisbane Transport has become a political tool; It has stopped focusing on passengers and instead focus on how generate a political return for politicians;

This has been happening for decades mate. Especially in the railway sector. QR had been wanting to improve it's operations but higher ups have shafted them on so so soooo many occasions. Wouldn't surprise me if its the same with BT as we saw when the BCC told them not to play ball with Translink.

[ozbob]

no cross-river transit solution

No BAT thank God

  even if LNP fall over the line, my guess is the BaT is finished.

[James]

Does Graham Quirk honestly think the RTBU and BT is going to be used to support him in 2016, which is only months after contestability opens and there could well be industrial action? The guy is in dream land!!

Contestability is not going to go ahead under the ALP. RTBU nor BT will do much to attack him - state LNP has been the scapegoat for most of the cuts to the BCC bus network.

I am lost for words. I think it is safe to say its time to hold a funeral for bus network reform until at least 2018...

[SurfRail]

If the ALP win, tendering is dead.

That doesn't mean that we can't still keep hammering away at improvements. 

The ALP's leader and possible Premier happens to have a prominent member of this forum in her electorate...