POLL: Who will win QLD State Election 2024?

[#Metro]

Poll Question - Who will win QLD State Election 2024?

5 day poll, vote can be changed up until poll close.

Results available for viewing after voting.

In keeping with forum customs, the parties are not named directly.

 

[Gazza]

"Blue Team", "Red Team" smh.

Whats wrong with using the name for each party?

[#Metro]

Annastacia Palaszczuk has announced she is resigning as Queensland Premier after more than eight years.

[#Metro]

Small but non-zero possibility the Premier might run for BCC Lord Mayor. Not a rumour, just speculation!

[ozbob]

"Blue Team", "Red Team" smh.

Whats wrong with using the name for each party?

Party names is fine.

[verbatim9]

The caucus will probably go with Cameron Dick I reckon as he is more to the right than Fentiman and will appeal more broadly to the whole of Qld.

[ozbob]

The Premier has endorsed the Deputy Premier for the leadership. 

This is significant.  My hunch is the Steven Miles will get it, with Shannon Fentiman as Deputy.

[ozbob]

I voted 'other' in the poll. As far as the election goes, as this time (policy free zone) I am not confident that Labor or LNP will win outright.  I suspect we might be looking at some form of coalition Government - possibly Labor/Greens/Independents.

This could change as policies become more delineated.

[verbatim9]

Mmm, if Miles is endorsed as leader, Cameron Dick could likely be deputy. This is because both Miles and Fentiman are from the left side and the right side would need some kind of acknowledgememt and representation for balance.

But you never know with Labor

[ozbob]

Mmm, if Miles is endorsed as leader, Cameron Dick could likely be deputy. This is because both Miles and Fentiman are from the left side and the right side would need some kind of acknowledgememt and representation for balance.

But you never know with Labor

Good point.  Cameron Dick certainly in with a show.  They might balance left and right. It is a bit factional.

But I really think the DP is in the box seat for the leadership. 

[Gazza]

I'm thinking it'll be a narrow labor win or minority government.

Failing that it will be another LNP one term government.

[verbatim9]

Survey/Poll above seems pretty accurate in terms of a LNP wim in 11 months time.

[timh]

Voted Other. I agree with Bob. Hung parliament. Labor/Greens/others coalition

[verbatim9]

Early voting centres open on Monday. The Brisbane CBD one will be open from 8am-8pm.

[Arnz]

Seems to be leading towards a Hung Parliament (posted as of 8:12pm), the LNP swing is still below 5% which isn't enough for a majority.

[Arnz]

Postal Votes starting to come in per the commercial networks/ABC and slightly favouring a LNP slim majority.  Likely to take up to 48 hours to get a clear result.

[ozbob]

LNP will probably get across the line.  Labor doing a lot better than many predicted.  Greens and Katter not as well as some thought.  But as Arnz mentioned, it may be a while yet for final numbers.

DSCRL will it still be a certainty for Maroochydore?  Need to wait, but unless a clear majority for LNP doubtful. Very unlikely if they need Katter support for a minority government.

50 cent fares will remain.

Olympics?  Going to be fascinating what transpires from here.

[ozbob]

Postal Votes starting to come in per the commercial networks/ABC and slightly favouring a LNP slim majority.  Likely to take up to 48 hours to get a clear result.

Postal and pre-poll voting will most certainly favour the LNP.  This fact I think will probably deliver Government to the LNP.  It remains to be determined the majority - own right (most likely), minority (support of others) less likely IMHO.

[ozbob]

Queensland Election 2024 Results

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2024/results?filter=all&sort=az

Former Transport Minister Bart Mellish is in trouble in Aspley ...

[Arnz]

ABC's Antony Green has called it for the LNP, but is unsure whether if it's a majority or a minority. 

The LNP are on 45 seats as of 9:41pm.  He has also stated that that's impossible at this stage for Labor to form government at this time.  Labor has performed better than expected, considering most of the media and experts was expecting a near Newman-style landslide/wipeout.

[ozbob]

The LNP campaign was very poor.  The results confirm that. I think having more opposition members than what happened with the Newman Government will endear better outcomes.

As I type Steven Miles is conceding defeat, but he can still hold his head high ( he also said the LNP might not have a majority, not so sure about that ).

Miles ran a top campaign under the circumstances. 

[ozbob]

Gold Coast Light Rail stage 4 ??

[ozbob]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2024/results?filter=all&sort=az

LNP now on 47 seats.  Congratulations.  Appears will be LNP Government in their own right. 

The better outcome IMHO than a minority with others support.

[Arnz]

Indeed, the Postal/Early Voters are likely to favour LNP and I'd probably tip a slim 2-3 seat majority.

[Fares_Fair]

Transport Minister Bart Mellish [ASPLEY] is defeated.

[Fares_Fair]

11:26pm.
ABC says LNP with 49 seats.
47 required for a majority government.
9 seats still in doubt.

On the Sunshine Coast,
CALOUNDRA held by Jason Hunt (ALP) goes to LNP's new MP, Kendall Morton.

NICKLIN held by Robert Skelton (ALP) goes to LNP's Marty Hunt, who is returned, after losing the last election by 83 votes.

[ozbob]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2024/results?filter=all&sort=az

LNP now on 49 seats.  LNP majority Government. DSCRL to Maroochydore looking more promising (albeit the other issues not withstanding, approvals, costs and time).

[ozbob]

^ this means the QTMP has to proceed as planned for now, and there is a possibility of more than 65 six car trains being eventually procured under this program in my view.

[ozbob]

11:26pm.
ABC says LNP with 49 seats.
47 required for a majority government.
9 seats still in doubt.

On the Sunshine Coast, CALOUNDRA held by Jason Hunt (ALP) goes to LNP.
NICKLIN held by Robert Skelton (ALP) goes to LNP.

Close in Maryborough too.  Pre polls could tip this seat over.

[ozbob]

https://x.com/bne_lordmayor/status/1850167779812659557

[#Metro]

Great. Looking forward to accelerated Brisbane Metro BRT rollout across the entire BCC area now.

Possibility that fares will go back to normal levels over time as well.

Some concern that the latest stage of Gold Coast LRT might be substituted for BRT, which I actually don't support using BRT for that particular use case.

QSAC will also probably not be the Olympics venue.

[ozbob]

Ha, you are enthusiastic #Metro.  But let's slow down a little. 

Further roll out of BERT will be dependent on how things really go for M1 and M2 first. 

Then consideration will be given I think to the possible northern extension first as the priority, then latterly the eastern.

As far as BERT to the Airport I don't think that will happen.

BCC has a real challenge now to manage the bus changes.  Boot is on the other foot.

As far as 50 cent fares goes, they remain, probably for 4 years is my bet.

The thing I am disappointed about is that the Independent Transport Authority is probably dead in the water for now.  Shame, as the farce of bloated Brisbane versus the rest of SEQ, and Queensland will continue.  Brisbane over-serviced, other regions under-serviced.

DSCRL - I think that Birtinya is virtually guaranteed, not so confident for the final section to Maroochydore by 2032.

QSAC - What!  No shuttle buses from Banoon railway station   

Seriously, the sooner QSAC is kicked into touch, the better.  It is going to be fascinating watching what the new Government comes up with for the 2032 Games.  Ball is definitely in their court now!

Station DDA upgrade program may slow right down (despite legal requirements to do so), there seems to be thinking within the LNP that these upgrades are ' gold plating ' when in fact they are not.

Another positive that I would like to see is the cutting of excessive use of consultants. Part of the reason we are in the mess we are today is because of outsourcing to consultants who come up with wrong solutions. LNP have said they want it curtailed, time will tell.

Gold Coast Light Stage 4 will be a financial sacrifice for DSCRL is my hunch. Expect BRT at best.  This doesn't mean it will never happen, just will be delayed. Unless the LNP can really deliver (and judging by the election campaign - I have my doubts) they will be a one term Government.

[Jonno]

Or in simpler words ""95% or more of trips by motor vehicle"

LNP has no transport plans!! No cycling No public transport


MORE ROAD!!! MORE SUBSIDY!!!