Ipswich and Cycling Potential

[#Metro]

Ipswich and Cycling Potential

I'm curious about the cycling potential for Ipswich, because unlike Brisbane, it is a much more compact city (see image). So I wanted to explore if cycling could have high potential for mass transport. (This includes electric bikes and e-Scooters). In the Australian context, maybe Canberra would be one comparison.

Background

A passenger conducting a spontaneous bus trip would on average experience a wait time of 1/2 frequency. Given that most Ipswich bus routes are hourly, a bus upgrade would take most routes to 30 minute frequency, so that's a 15 minute wait (on average).

If that same passenger decided to go by bicycle, they could start cycling. In the 15 minute average wait time they would experience waiting for the bus, they would have travelled 15 min x (20 km/60 minutes) = 5 km in that time.

What proportion of Ipswich could they get to?

Method
I don't have sophisticated software or anything like that. So I resorted to drawing 5 km line sections along plausible routes that radiate out from Ipswich Train Station. These radiating sections of 5km line were then connected to form a polygon over the area to represent where cycling could be faster than a comparable bus trip (30 min bus frequency). The area where you can get to in 15 minutes by cycling (@20 km/hr) is quite large (see below). I would estimate about ~ 80% of Ipswich proper would fall into the blue zone shown.

The journey time advantage that cyclists would have over the bus would be even higher if bus routes were not direct (or reliable).  Other members more familiar with the Ipswich bus network may be in a better position regarding that.

Jonno, I would be interested in what you might think about this one?

Result - Where a 15 min bike ride can take you in Ipswich

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[ozbob]

Cycle Ipswich

> https://www.ipswich.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/94580/Cycle-Ipswich_A5_20pp.pdf

From Walk Cycle Ipswich

https://www.ipswich.qld.gov.au/live/healthy_lifestyle/walk_cycle_ipswich

[#Metro]

Reference Case #1

I've done a bit more searching to see if something like this has been done before. It has.
The City of Davis, California, USA is an interesting comparison.

- Population 3x smaller than Ipswich, non-high density, non-European city layout (pop. ~ 66,799)
- Bicycle mode share 17%.   
- It has a really popular university, which is in its favour
- Varying degrees of bike priority in the city.

Even if we dilute the 17% figure by 3x to model the Ipswich case, it gives a mode share of about ~5%. That's still ~10x more cycling than what would be happening in Ipswich at the moment.

Davis, California

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Davis Bike And Pedestrian Infrastructure
https://www.cityofdavis.org/city-hall/public-works-engineering-and-transportation/bike-pedestrian-program/davis-bike-and-pedestrian-infrastructure

Davis is considered to be the bicycle capital of the U.S.  Each year, we receive many requests about what makes Davis special. This webpage is intended to provide information on what makes Davis great place to ride a bicycle. 

I think the Davis example is a lot more relevant than using, say, Amsterdam. The form and density are different. It looks achievable.

Snapshots around Davis. Not all of it looks completely separated. From https://www.google.com/maps/place/Davis,+CA,+USA

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Reference

City of Davis Bicycle Plan
https://www.cityofdavis.org/home/showdocument?id=1127

[#Metro]

Coming to think of it, Ipswich would meet the "15 minute" city criterion, at least in terms of Cycling.

Maybe not PT, but we should expect that for smaller cities as bus routes need to be a certain minimum length to get enough passengers, need enough people and destinations to catch them, and support frequent service (Mohring Effect/Network Effect).

[Jonno]

Cycling and public transport are not competitors as they link to create a single system.  PT should also not be seen as a demand problem but a supply problem.  If we want 60% plus to use active and public transport then we need to design a system that enables it not.  There is no empirical evidence to show that only a certain % of trips will be made by active and public transport.  There are trips that physically cannot be by active and public transport or freight rail but they number below 30% (sorry can't remember where that stat comes form, but I do remember reading it in some research) and even this is being challenged to that with cargo bikes and freight trams. 

Unfortunately, public transport planning in QLD starts with "Only a very small % of trips will ever be by active or public transport" Let's say max 20%. Thus, the whole system is designed based on this assumption and we end up with low frequency, indirect services that don't integrate...and 80% of trips by motor vehicle costing 6x the subsidy of the trip by public transport.

The design principle between Davis and Amsterdam should not be different.  One just has less people per hectare. This does not make the 60% + impossible it just costs more per person (but still less than everyone driving) and there is huge potential for better land use intensification rather than the loss of green/rural land.

The actual system designed becomes the limiting factor to the 20% not a correct assumption. See SEQ active and public transport levels as living proof.

[#Metro]

Cycling and public transport are not competitors as they link to create a single system.  PT should also not be seen as a demand problem but a supply problem.

Well, they are competing. They are all in competition with each other, as when you choose one you also actively not choose the other.

Most bike users would be in the city before the bus turned up.

How frequent does the competing bus need to be to match bikes?

For a bus to be equally competitive with a bike, we can run the calculations backwards.

In 5 km distance x (60 min / 40 km) = 7.5 minutes travel time. [Assuming bus goes at 40 km/hr]

Now we had 15 minutes as the bike journey time. So we remove the bus travel time to give the figure for what we expect the bus waiting time to be. That's also 7.5 minutes.

We know that the average wait time is 1/2F, so going in reverse we multiply by 2x to get Frequency out for the bus.

7.5 min average wait x 2 = 15 minutes.

So for the bus to be equally good as a bike, these buses would (a) have to be direct, and (b) run every 15 minutes or better.

And if bus/bike were equally good, potential users would be indifferent, so we would expect to see the PT/AT mode share split equally, all else equal. (And assuming good bike infrastructure on the road).

For these reasons, I think Ipswich is a good test place for an aggressive cycling policy, given the geography and size. More should be done to test/trial the idea that it could be a hidden cycling opportunity. I think some things that would not be favourable is abundant free car parking (I don't think car parking is really limiting) and worries about bikes being stolen or damaged if parked in the open.

[Gazza]

I've posted in previous threads that the goal should be to increase non-car mode share, and safe segregated cycle infrastructure is a big part of that.

But I don't think the choice of mode is always a simple as "The bus has an average wait of 15 mins so therefore I'll jump on my bike" because the formula says its faster.

People might continue to use the bus to avoid physical exertion (though e-bikes are changing this) , or because Ipswich does not exist in isolation and they might be making onwards connections with rail.

The bus system should not just be viewed as something you use to get around Ipswich, but in fact part of a broader regional transport system that could be used by people headed to the city, and if it were any good, people coming from brisbane visiting locations in Ipswich or Springfield.

Jonno is right though, the two are complementary not in competition, more you design for non-car modes of transport, the easier each of those can function.
Eg more bikes = less cars = bus has a clear run.
Better bike parking = bus or train station gets more patronage.
More buses = less cars = cycling feels safer.

[#Metro]

Ozbob, some feedback that might be helpful for ICC is an e-Scooters trial in Ipswich itself (rather than just in Springfield). Particularly if there were scooter locations set up as USQ Ipswich campus and Ipswich CBD. The private eScooter operators would probably be more than happy to do that at no or minimal cost.

I think BCC gets some licence revenue for each scooter used in BCC; If ICC did that too, it would also be a financial win-win for ICC and residents there.

E-scooters coming to Ipswich
https://www.ipswichfirst.com.au/e-scooters-coming-to-ipswich/

An e-scooter pilot scheme has been given the green light by council, delivering an alternative transport option to the community that is sustainable, more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.

The pilot will take place in Springfield for six months and is scheduled to start in September 2022.

Division 2 Councillor and Deputy Mayor Nicole Jonic said she was looking forward to the pilot and residents having an alternative to cars.

"Getting to and from public transport can be a barrier for people, and having the electric assistance means you don't have to have a change of clothes as e-scooters are great for tackling hills and heat," Cr Jonic said.

[Jonno]

Interesting Facebook post

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02h7SsybSGejUJggVsNnfHv3xbxV2xwihz8N1rcVoPGjCzt7hjYPrh6PAoed42PCepl&id=100063802686144&mibextid=qC1gEa

[#Metro]

Cycling and public transport are not competitors as they link to create a single system.

Well, one has to be cautious about applying generalities. Something can be true at a general level, and false at a specific level, or false/not applicable in a particular case.

For instance, one could argue that cars are complimentary too as one can drive their car to a railway P&R station and make a regional trip. And in the Perth model, about one third to half the train patronage (depending on station) is actually coming from P&R (car users). That's a significant portion, more that what bikes are generating there.

In a city like Ipswich where buses are mostly hourly or half-hourly, bike would have an absolute journey time advantage over bus for the distances involved (blue zone). Provided that people could trust that cycling was safe and the infrastructure was there.

Utrecht

The Utrecht case looks good. Thanks for sharing that. Some Google Earth screenshots show good bike lanes. One thing to wonder about - would you convert footpaths for pedestrians to ashphalt and lined/marked "shared paths" for bikes/eScooters? In the first image, I'm not seeing a footpath for pedestrians. Its just a two-lane separated bikeway. I assume pedestrians will/can walk on that?

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[ozbob]

... Ozbob, some feedback that might be helpful for ICC is an e-Scooters trial in Ipswich itself (rather than just in Springfield). Particularly if there were scooter locations set up as USQ Ipswich campus and Ipswich CBD. ...

Fair point, but this is a pilot.  ICC know what they are doing #Metro.  If the pilot turns out OK, ICC might expand it.

There is also a risk that e-Scooters around Ipswich CBD have a fair chance of ending up in the Bremer ....  

#justsaying 

[ozbob]

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[ozbob]

ICC: Cycle in style to Tulmur Place

https://www.ipswichfirst.com.au/cycle-in-style-to-tulmur-place/

Ipswich City Council has taken another small step in advancing its city-wide active transport masterplan with the establishment of new public end-of-trip facility in the Nicholas Street Precinct.

As part of the council-endorsed iGO Active Transport Action Plan (ATAP), and supporting the continuing Ipswich Central Revitalisation efforts, the new open-air end-of-trip facility has been established in the Nicholas Street carpark adjacent the Bradfield Bridge.

Ipswich City Council Infrastructure, Planning and Assets Committee Chairperson and Division 3 Councillor Andrew Antoniolli welcomed the new facility, which has been funded and delivered by council in partnership with the State Government.

"The facility will provide a new layer of convenience for people venturing into Ipswich Central by bicycle or scooter for work or to visit," Cr Antoniolli said. ...